1、Should the One-Child Policy Continue?Proposals to change Chinas family planning policy were put forward during the recent sessions of the National Peoples Congress (NPC) and the Chinese Peoples Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) by a number of NPC deputies and CPPCC members. China currently f
2、aces sharply decreasing input into its labor force, a rapidly growing ageing population and an imbalance in male and female births. The NPC deputies and CPPCC members suggested changing the current one-child policy to a policy of “encouraging the birth of one child, allowing two children and forbidd
3、ing three children.“This proposal is widely supported by the public.NPC deputy He Youlin submitted a proposal during the NPC session to allow a couple to have two children, saying, “its high time to change the current family planning policy,“ due to the occurrence of a number of new population-relat
4、ed problems, such as accelerated growth of the ageing population, mounting pension payments, and the recently appearing “shortage of migrant workers.“All of the problems are partly related to the one-child policy and, in the long term, these factors may affect economic growth, the deputy argued.A co
5、untry where people aged 60 or older account for more than 10 percent of the total population, or those aged 65 or older account for more than 7 percent of the total population, is defined as an ageing society. In an “ageing society,“ if the proportion is more than 14 percent, it is called an “aged s
6、ociety.“ Chinas 2000 census shows the country has already become an “ageing society.“ United Nations statistics indicate China will become an “aged society“ in 2025.Can the problem of an ageing population be solved quickly if two babies are allowed to one couple? Is now a window period to adjust the
7、 current family planning policy? Should China continue its one-child policy?Immediate suspensionWang Feng (): First, we must make clear the one-child policy is not directly responsible for the ageing society. Some people take it for granted the suspension of the one-child policy will immediately rev
8、erse Chinas ageing trend, but there are many reasons that help push up the proportion of the elderly in the whole population. To a certain extent, Chinas large ageing proportion is a result of a sharply decreasing birth rate during past decades. It means if we stop the one-child policy now, although
9、 we would not expect to see changes immediately, the population structure will improve in several decades. It will help relieve pressure from population ageing and even negative growth of the population. It is now therefore urgent to halt the one-child policy.If we continue the one-child policy, we
10、are likely to face these challenges: negative population growth, heavy pressure on pension finance, labor shortages and heavier responsibilities on young family members. All these could result in severe social and economic problems.China began to implement the one-child policy in 1979, and it was sa
11、id to be a “temporary measure in a special time.“ From then on, huge changes have occurred in the countrys fertility rate and population structure. Its no longer a time when the implementation of a stringent birth-control policy is necessary, so an adjustment to the current population policy is requ
12、ired.Indeed, todays China still needs to maintain a low fertility rate, but this does not mean a stringent one-child policy. The country should allow some families to have two children. Even if two children are allowed, Chinas population is expected to peak in 2030 and then slowly start to drop.In t
13、he past 20 years, Chinas total fertility rate has been lower than 2.1, which means, Chinas total population will begin to fall, with the population of each generation becoming less than the previous ones.Officially, Chinas population policy is to be kept stable on the whole while small changes in ac
14、cordance with special local conditions will be allowed. But in many places, this policy has not been put into practice.The population policy should be implemented more flexibly in different regions. Take Shanghai, for example. The city has long enjoyed the lowest birth rate in the country and contin
15、ually maintains a negative population growth rate. In this city, the one-child policy could be changed into a two-child policy.Currently, China allows rural couples who have only a female child and couples who are both “only children“ to have two children. In the future, cities like Shanghai, with l
16、ow fertility rates, will probably also begin to allow a two-children policy. Gradually, more places are going to enjoy this policy. In this way, we can avoid sharp population growth and balance regional growth.Based on present conditions, Chinas population will not inflict any pressure on the rest o
17、f the world and will no longer constrict Chinas sustainable development in coming years. Therefore, its necessary for the government to reconsider the family planning policy from the perspective of the countrys long-term interests and each familys immediate interests. To relax control on population
18、growth properly will help to deal with the increasingly serious problem of a decreasing population in the future.Ye Tingfang (Shanghai Business Daily): Its human nature to play or even fight together with their siblings. This is the kind of primitive condition a child wants to grow up in. Although t
19、hey are cared for by parents, still they might feel lonely when they have no siblings to play with. Sociologists point out an adults sense of abiding by game rules in social life is developed during their games with siblings in childhood.Parents love for an only child is a “double edged sword“: the
20、strong love will probably spoil children and encourage childrens laziness and capriciousness. Many of todays children growing up in a one-child family are somewhat indifferent, selfish and fragile in character, and this is only the first generation following the adoption of the one-child policy. Wha
21、t will happen in the second and third generations?Ageing society is also an unavoidable result of a one-child policy. If the current population policy continues, there will be a decrease of 100 million in the labor force aged 18 to 50. By then, Chinas society will become less active, and the strong
22、momentum in economic growth will slow down.The rationale for the one-child policy was based on the common belief in the late 1970s: arable land was limited but the population kept growing. So, measures to control rocketing population growth were necessary.“Is hunger inevitable in a country of a larg
23、e population and relatively little arable land“ (plus, China actually has extensive territory)? Some people are choosing to neglect human beings initiative and also economic features in the countrys present industrial and information age. There are so many other countries that have a far greater pop
24、ulation density than Chinaand they either never bother to control their fertility rate or only practice loose measures. But these countries still enjoy rapid economic growth and increasingly rising living standards. Many of our Asian neighbors are good examples.Taiwan and Zhejiang are Chinas most de
25、nsely populated provinces. Nonetheless they boast the countrys highest economic growth rates and best living conditions. Whats the secret here? Apart from their diligence and wisdom, they know how to make money in the rest of the country and the rest of the world.In the past three decades Chinas pop
26、ulation kept growing under inertia, but the country still enjoyed rapid economic growth. One important reason is that now we are blessed with a “demographic dividend!“ Ive never heard of any other country in the world regarding its population as such a huge burden. We know population is an important
27、 resource for a countrys economic development. It is the foundation of national strength and the backbone of a countrys national defense!In Europe, for example, during the past half century, economic, education and cultural progress has helped slow down population growthin a way nature is conducting
28、 self-adjustment. Weve already seen this tendency in China with more and more young couples refusing to have a baby, resulting in more “double income, no kid“ families. So we dont need to feel too worried about Chinas population growth.Continuation necessaryHuang Hongxiang (): Given Chinas current r
29、esource supplies, we have to stick to the national policy of family planning, that is, one child for one couple. Any policy will bring both positive and negative effects, and thus what we need to do is to limit the side effects of the one-child policy to a minimum. The current family planning policy
30、 was worked out in the late 1970s and needs to be updated to suit the present situation.Couples that have only one child have actually made a contribution to Chinas sustainable development and environmental protection. They should be granted certain compensations for their sacrifices.In Beijing, the
31、 biggest problem facing urban one-child families is healthcare. Almost 65 percent of them are plagued by this problem, followed by other problems such as pensions, employment, education and housing. To help one-child families, these are the priorities.The current preferential policy toward one-child
32、 families is subsidization. Each of the couple now receives 5 to 10 yuan ($0.74-1.47) a month (it differs in different provinces). This was a high subsidy in the late 1970s and early 1980s, when the average monthly salary was below 100 yuan ($14.71). But its nothing nowadays when the per-capita annu
33、al income in Beijing is already 16,000 yuan ($2,353).Is it possible for us to adjust the current subsidy policy? Is it possible for the state to input more to provide social security to one-child families, especially in backward rural areas, so as to alleviate their desire to have more children?Is i
34、t possible for the state to provide health insurance for every single child? For one-child families, the biggest worry is that their only child might get ill and even die. If their children are covered by proper health insurance, the parents worries will be removed.Is it possible to provide the pare
35、nts with endowment insurance? Traditionally, it is believed that the elderly depend on their sons for living, particularly in rural areas where many parents of a single daughter are left without care in their late years. Thats why many people insist on having a son although theyve already had severa
36、l daughters. If they are provided with endowment insurance, they will no longer feel worried about being left without care and will not have more children. If the national budget is unable to cover all rural areas, at least it should embrace those backward central and western regions where excessive unplanned births and unbalanced gender ratio mainly occur.
