1、1Natures Way In this memo the vice president of Natures Way CNW), a chain of stores selling health food and health-related products, recommends opening a store in Plainesville. To support this recommendation the vice president cites the following facts about Plainesville: (1) sales of exercise shoes
2、 and clothing are at all-time highs; (2) the local health club is more popular than ever; and (3) the citys schoolchildren are required to participate in a fitness program. Close scrutiny of each of these facts, however, reveals that none of them lend credible support to the recommendation.First, st
3、rong sales of exercise apparel do not necessarily indicate that Plainesville residents would be interested in NWs products, or that these residents are interested in exercising. Perhaps exercise apparel happens to be fashionable at the moment, or inexpensive compared to other types of clothing. For
4、that matter, perhaps the stronger-than-usual sales are due to increasing sales to tourists. In short, without making out other possible reasons for the strong sales the vice president cannot convince me on the basis of them that Plainesville residents are exercising regularly, let alone that they wo
5、uld be interested in buying the sorts of food and other products that NW sells. Secondly, even if exercise is more popular among Plainesville residents than ever before, the vice president assumes further that people who exercise regularly are also interested in buying health food and health-related
6、 products. Yet the memo contains no evidence to support this assumption. Lacking such evidence it is equally possible that aside from exercising Plainesville residents have little interest in leading a healthy lifestyle. In fact, perhaps as a result of regular exercise they believe they are sufficie
7、ntly fit and healthy and do not need a healthy diet. Thirdly, the popularity of the local health club is little indication that NW will earn a profit from a store in Plainesville. Perhaps club members live in an area of Plamesville nowhere near feasible sites for a NW store. Or perhaps the clubs pri
8、mary appeal is as a singles meeting place, and that members actually have little interest in a healthy lifestyle. Besides, even if the clubs members would patronize a NW store these members might be insufficient in number to ensure a profit for the store, especially considering that this health club
9、 is the only one inPlainesville.Fourth, the fact that a certain fitness program is mandatory for Plainesvilles school children accomplishes nothing toward bolstering the recommendation. Many years must pass before these children will be old enough to make buying decisions when it comes to food and h
10、ealth-related products. Their habits and interests might change radically over time. Besides, mandatory participation is no indication of genuine interest in health or fitness. Moreover, when these children grow older it is entirely possible that they will favor an unhealthy lifestyle-as a reaction
11、to the healthful habits imposed upon them now. Finally, even assuming that Plamesville residents are strongly interested in eating health foods and health-related products, the recommendation rests on two additional assumptions:(1) that this interest will continue in the foreseeable future, and (2)
12、that Plainesville residents will prefer NW over other merchants that sell similar products. Until the vice president substantiates both assumptions I remain unconvinced that a NW store in Plainesville would be profitable. In sum, the recommendation relies on certain doubtful assumptions that render
13、it unconvincing as it stands. To bolster the recommendation the vice president must provide dear evidence-perhaps by way of a local survey or study-that Plainesville residents who buy and wear exercise apparel, and especially the health clubs members, do in fact exercise regularly, and that these ex
14、ercisers are likely to buy health foods and health related products at a NW store. To better assess the recommendation, I would need to know why Plainesvilles health club is nonular, and why Plainesville does not contain more health clubs. I would also need to know what competition NW might face in
15、Plainesville.Deer haven Acres In this letter a committee of Deerhaven Acres homeowners recommends that in order to enhance 2Deerhaven property values homeowners should follow certain restrictions concerning their homes exterior appearance. To support this recommendation the committee points out that
16、 in the seven years since Brookville adopted similar restrictions property values there have risen. This argument rests on a series of unsubstantiated assumptions, and is therefore unpersuasive as it stands.A threshold assumption upon which the recommendation relies is that Brookville home owners im
17、plemented Brookvilles restrictions in the first place. The letter fails to substantiate this crucial assumption. If these restrictions were not implemented, then any change in Brookvilles property values cannot be attributed to them. Accordingly, the committee cannot draw any firm conclusion about w
18、hat effect similar restrictions would have on Deer haven property values.Even assuming that Brookville homeowners implemented these restrictions, the committee relies on the additional assumption that this course of action was responsible for the increase in Brookville property values. However, it i
19、s entirely possible that one or more other factors were instead responsible for the increase, especially since a considerable period of time has passed since Brookville adopted its restrictions. Property values are a function of supply and demand. Perhaps the demand for housing in the area has incre
20、ased due to an influx of major employers. Or, perhaps the supply of housing has decreased. Either scenario would provide an alternative explanation for the increase in property values.Even assuming that Brookvilles rising property values are attributable to the implementation of these restrictions,
21、the committee fails to consider possible differences between Brookville and Deer haven that might help to bring about a different result for Deer haven. For instance, potential Deer haven home-buyers might be less interested in a homes exterior appearance than Brookville home-owners. For that matter
22、, perhaps Deer haven home-buyers would find consistent exterior appearance a distasteful feature in which case adopting these restrictions might actually tend to decrease Deer-haven property values.Without accounting for these and other possible dissimilarities, the committee cannot assume that what
23、 resulted in rising property values in Brookville would bring about the same result in Deerhaven.In conclusion, to persuade me that Deerhaven should adopt the proposed restrictions the committee must supply clear evidence that the implementation of Brookvilles restrictions, and not some other factor
24、, was responsible for the rise in Brookvilles property values. The committee must also provide evidence that other factors affecting home prices in the two areas are otherwise essentially the same.law firms in the city of Megalopolis.This article concludes that despite the relatively high salaries a
25、t Megalopolis large law firms, these firms must begin offering more benefits and incentives to new law-school graduates, while requiring them to work fewer hours, in order to reverse a 3-year 15% decline in the number of graduates going to work for these firms. To justify this conclusion the article
26、s author notes that during the last 3 years the number of new law-school graduates going to work for small firms has risen. The author also cites a survey at one leading law school in which most first-year students indicated that job satisfaction was more important than salary. I find this argument
27、logically unconvincing in several respects.First of all, the 15% decline that the author cites is not necessarily due to the vocational preferences of new law-school graduates. It is entirely possible that the number of new graduates preferring to work for large firms has not declined, but that duri
28、ng the last three years MegalopoLis large firms have had fewer and fewer job openings for these graduates. Since the article fails to account for this alternative explanation for the 15% decline, the articles author cannot make any sound recommendations to law firms based on that decline.As for the
29、survey that the article cites, the vocational goals of first-year law students do not necessarily reflect those of graduating students; after all, a law students vocational goals can 3change over a three-year period. Moreover, the goals of students at one law school do not necessarily reflect those
30、of the overall pool of graduates that might seek employment with Megalopolis law firms. In fact, given that the school whose students participated in the survey was a “leading“ school, it is entirely possible that the vast majority of the schools graduates may choose among offers from many large fir
31、ms in many cities. If so, this fact would further undermine the surveys relevance in prescribing any course of action for Megalopolis law firms.Finally, the author falsely equates the proposed tangible incentives with job satisfaction, which is an intangible reward based on the nature of ones work.
32、Moreover, enhanced job benefits can be tantamount to an enhanced salary, and shorter working hours tantamount to a higher hourly wage. Thus if new law-school graduates seeking jobs in Megalopolis are less interested in monetary rewards than in job satisfaction, then the proposed incentives are not l
33、ikely to entice these graduates.In sum, the argument is logically flawed and therefore unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it the author must either modify the proposal to provide incentives for those seeking job satisfaction over monetary rewards, or provide better evidence that new law school
34、 graduates seeking jobs in Megalopolis would hope the proposed incentives enticing.Adams Realty and Fitch Realty The author of this argument claims that Adams Realty is superior to Fitch Realty. To support this claim the author cites certain statistics about the number and working hours of the firms
35、 agents, and the number and sales prices of homes sold by the two firms. The author also cites anecdotal evidence involving her own experience with Fitch and Adams. Close scrutiny of this evidence reveals that it lends little credible support for the authors assertion.The author bases her claim part
36、ly on the fact that Adams has more agents than Fitch, and that many of Fitchs agents work only part-time. However, the author provides no evidence that the quality of a real-estate firm is directly proportional to the number of its agents or the number of hours per week that its agents work. Lacking
37、 such evidence, it is equally possible that a smaller firm is more effective than a larger one, and that a part-time agent is more effective than a full-time agent. Besides, the author does not provide any information about how many Adams agents work part-time.To further support her claim the author
38、 cites the fact that Adams sold more properties last year than Fitch. However, the author overlooks the possibility that last years sales volume amounted to an aberration, and that in most other years Adams has actually sold fewer properties than Fitch. Moreover, the disparity in sales volume can re
39、adily be explained by factors other than the comparative quality of the two firms. Perhaps Adams serves a denser geographic area, or an area where turnover in home-ownership is higher for reasons unrelated to Adams effectiveness. Or perhaps sales volume is higher at Adams simply because it employs m
40、ore agents, and each Adams agent actually sells fewer homes on average than each Fitch agent does. Without ruling out such alternative explanations for the disparity in sales volume, the author cannot defend the conclusion that based on this evidence that Adams is superior to Fitch.In further suppor
41、t of her claim the author points out that the average sales price of a home sold by Adams is greater than the average price of a home sold by Fitch. However, this evidence shows only that the homes that Adams sells are more valuable on average than the ones that Fitch sells, not that Adams is more e
42、ffective in selling homes than Fitch. Moreover, it is possible that a few relatively high-priced or low-priced properties skewed these averages, rendering any conclusions about the comparative quality of the two firms based on these averages unfair.For additional support the author points out that i
43、t took Fitch Realty considerable longer to sell one of the authors homes than it took Adams Realty to sell another one of her homes ten years earlier. However, this disparity is explainable by other plausible factors, such as changing economic 4conditions during that ten-year period, or a difference
44、 in the desirability of the two properties. Without establishing that all other factors affecting the speed of a sale were essentially the same for the two homes, the author cannot rely on this limited anecdotal evidence to support her claim.In conclusion, the authors evidence lends little credible
45、support to her claim. To persuade me that Adams is better than Fitch, the author would need to provide clear evidence that individual Adams agents are more effective in selling homes than individual Fitch agents, and that the disparity in home sales and sales price is attributable to that difference
46、. Finally, to better evaluate the authors claim we would need more information comparing the percentage of agents working part-time at Fitch versus Adams. We would also need more information about the comparative attractiveness of the authors two homes, and the extent to which the residential real-e
47、state market changed during the decade between the sale of these twohomes. A jazz music club in MonroeThis loan applicant claims that a jazz club in Monroe would be a profitable venture. To support this claim the applicant points out that Monroe has no other jazz clubs. He also cites various other e
48、vidence that jazz is popular among Monroe residents. Careful examination of this supporting evidence, however, reveals that it lends little credible support to the applicants claim.First of all, if the demand for a live jazz club in Monroe were as great as the applicant claims, it seems that Monroe
49、would already have one or more such clubs. The fact that the closest jazz club is 65 miles away suggests a lack of interest among Monroe residents in a local jazz club. Since the applicant has not adequately responded to this concem, his claim that the proposed club would be profitable is untenable.The popularity of Monroes annual jazz festival and of its nightly jazz radio show might appear to lend support to the applicants claim. However, it is entirely possible that the vast majority of festival attendees are out-of-town visitors. Moreover, the au
