1、外文翻译RISKMANAGEMENTMATERIALSOURCESPRINGERSERIESINRELIABILITYENGINEERING,2010,RISKSINTECHNOLOGICALSYSTEMS,PAGES175198AUTHORTERJEAVENTHISCHAPTERREVIEWSANDDISCUSSESTHEBASICISSUESANDPRINCIPLESOFRISKMANAGEMENT,INCLUDINGRISKACCEPTABILITYTOLERABILITYRISKREDUCTIONANDTHEALARPPRINCIPLECAUTIONARYANDPRECAUTIONAR
2、YPRINCIPLESANDPRESENTSACASESTUDYSHOWINGTHEIMPORTANCEOFTHESEISSUESANDPRINCIPLESINAPRACTICALMANAGEMENTCONTEXTBEFOREWETAKEACLOSERLOOK,LETUSBRIEFLYADDRESSSOMEBASICFEATURESOFRISKMANAGEMENTOVERVIEWOFRISKMANAGEMENTTHEPURPOSEOFRISKMANAGEMENTISTOENSURETHATADEQUATEMEASURESARETAKENTOPROTECTPEOPLE,THEENVIRONMEN
3、T,ANDASSETSFROMPOSSIBLEHARMFULCONSEQUENCESOFTHEACTIVITIESBEINGUNDERTAKEN,ASWELLASTOBALANCEDIFFERENTCONCERNS,INPARTICULARRISKSANDCOSTSRISKMANAGEMENTINCLUDESMEASURESBOTHTOAVOIDTHEHAZARDSANDTOREDUCETHEIRPOTENTIALHARMTRADITIONALLY,ININDUSTRIESSUCHASNUCLEAR,OILANDGASRISKMANAGEMENTWASBASEDONAPRESCRIPTIVER
4、EGULATINGREGIME,INWHICHDETAILEDREQUIREMENTSWERESETWITHREGARDTOTHEDESIGNANDOPERATIONOFTHEARRANGEMENTSTHISREGIMEHASGRADUALLYBEENREPLACEDBYAMOREGOALORIENTEDREGIME,PUTTINGEMPHASISONWHATTOACHIEVERATHERTHANONTHEMEANSOFACHIEVINGITRISKMANAGEMENTISANINTEGRALASPECTOFAGOALORIENTEDREGIMEFIGURE121ITISACKNOWLEDGE
5、DTHATRISKCANNOTBEELIMINATEDBUTMUSTBEMANAGEDTHEREISNOWADAYSANENORMOUSDRIVEANDENTHUSIASMINVARIOUSINDUSTRIESANDINSOCIETYASAWHOLETOIMPLEMENTRISKMANAGEMENTINORGANIZATIONSTHEREAREHIGHEXPECTATIONSTHATRISKMANAGEMENTISTHEPROPERFRAMEWORKTHROUGHWHICHTOACHIEVEHIGHLEVELSOFPERFORMANCERISKMANAGEMENTINVOLVESACHIEVI
6、NGANAPPROPRIATEBALANCEBETWEENREALIZINGOPPORTUNITIESFORGAINANDMINIMIZINGLOSSESITISANINTEGRALPARTOFGOODMANAGEMENTPRACTICEANDANESSENTIALELEMENTOFGOODCORPORATEGOVERNANCEITISANITERATIVEPROCESSCONSISTINGOFSTEPSTHAT,WHENUNDERTAKENINSEQUENCE,CANLEADTOACONTINUOUSIMPROVEMENTINDECISIONMAKINGANDFACILITATEACONTI
7、NUOUSIMPROVEMENTINPERFORMANCETOSUPPORTDECISIONMAKINGREGARDINGDESIGNANDOPERATION,RISKANALYSESARECARRIEDOUTTHEYINCLUDETHEIDENTIFICATIONOFHAZARDSANDTHREATS,CAUSEANALYSES,CONSEQUENCEANALYSES,ANDRISKDESCRIPTIONSTHERESULTSARETHENEVALUATEDTHETOTALITYOFTHEANALYSESANDTHEEVALUATIONSAREREFERREDTOASRISKASSESSME
8、NTSRISKASSESSMENTISFOLLOWEDBYRISKTREATMENT,WHICHISAPROCESSINVOLVINGTHEDEVELOPMENTANDIMPLEMENTATIONOFMEASURESTOMODIFYTHERISK,INCLUDINGMEASURESDESIGNEDTOAVOID,REDUCE“OPTIMIZE”,TRANSFER,ORRETAINTHERISKRISKTRANSFERMEANSSHARINGWITHANOTHERPARTYTHEBENEFITORLOSSASSOCIATEDWITHARISKITISTYPICALLYEFFECTEDTHROUG
9、HINSURANCERISKMANAGEMENTCOVERSALLCOORDINATEDACTIVITIESINTHEDIRECTIONANDCONTROLOFANORGANIZATIONWITHREGARDTORISKTHISTERMINOLOGYISINLINEWITHISO/IECGUIDE732002FIGURE121COMPLEXINDUSTRIALACTIVITIESREQUIRESYSTEMATICRISKMANAGEMENTHEREAVIEWOFTHEMEXICANOILREFINERYFRANCISCOIMADEROPHOTOADALBERTOROSSZALAY/AGE/SC
10、ANPIXINMANYENTERPRISES,THERISKMANAGEMENTTASKSAREDIVIDEDINTOTHREEMAINCATEGORIESSTRATEGICRISK,FINANCIALRISK,ANDOPERATIONALRISKSTRATEGICRISKINCLUDESASPECTSANDFACTORSTHATAREIMPORTANTFORTHEENTERPRISESLONGTERMSTRATEGYANDPLANS,FOREXAMPLEMERGERSANDACQUISITIONS,TECHNOLOGY,COMPETITION,POLITICALCONDITIONS,LEGI
11、SLATIONANDREGULATIONS,ANDLABORMARKETFINANCIALRISKINCLUDESTHEENTERPRISESFINANCIALSITUATION,ANDINCLUDESMARKETRISK,ASSOCIATEDWITHTHECOSTSOFGOODSANDSERVICES,FOREIGNEXCHANGERATESANDSECURITIESSHARES,BONDS,ETCCREDITRISK,ASSOCIATEDWITHADEBTORSFAILURETOMEETITSOBLIGATIONSINACCORDANCEWITHAGREEDTERMSLIQUIDITYRI
12、SK,REFLECTINGLACKOFACCESSTOCASHTHEDIFFICULTYOFSELLINGANASSETINATIMELYMANNEROPERATIONALRISKISRELATEDTOCONDITIONSAFFECTINGTHENORMALOPERATINGSITUATIONACCIDENTALEVENTS,INCLUDINGFAILURESANDDEFECTS,QUALITYDEVIATIONS,NATURALDISASTERSINTENDEDACTSSABOTAGE,DISGRUNTLEDEMPLOYEES,ETCLOSSOFCOMPETENCE,KEYPERSONNEL
13、LEGALCIRCUMSTANCES,ASSOCIATEDFORINSTANCE,WITHDEFECTIVECONTRACTSANDLIABILITYINSURANCEFORANENTERPRISETOBECOMESUCCESSFULINITSIMPLEMENTATIONOFRISKMANAGEMENT,TOPMANAGEMENTNEEDSTOBEINVOLVED,ANDACTIVITIESMUSTBEPUTINTOEFFECTONMANYLEVELSSOMEIMPORTANTPOINTSTOENSURESUCCESSAREAVEN2008ATHEESTABLISHMENTOFASTRATEG
14、YFORRISKMANAGEMENT,IE,THEPRINCIPLESOFHOWTHEENTERPRISEDEFINESANDIMPLEMENTSRISKMANAGEMENTSHOULDONESIMPLYFOLLOWTHEREGULATORYREQUIREMENTSMINIMALREQUIREMENTS,ORSHOULDONEBETHE“BESTINTHECLASS”THEESTABLISHMENTOFARISKMANAGEMENTPROCESSFORTHEENTERPRISE,IE,FORMALPROCESSESANDROUTINESTHATTHEENTERPRISEISTOFOLLOWTH
15、EESTABLISHMENTOFMANAGEMENTSTRUCTURES,WITHROLESANDRESPONSIBILITIES,SUCHTHATTHERISKANALYSISPROCESSBECOMESINTEGRATEDINTOTHEORGANIZATIONTHEIMPLEMENTATIONOFANALYSESANDSUPPORTSYSTEMS,SUCHASRISKANALYSISTOOLS,RECORDINGSYSTEMSFOROCCURRENCESOFVARIOUSTYPESOFEVENTS,ETCTHECOMMUNICATION,TRAINING,ANDDEVELOPMENTOFA
16、RISKMANAGEMENTCULTURE,SOTHATTHECOMPETENCE,UNDERSTANDING,ANDMOTIVATIONLEVELWITHINTHEORGANIZATIONISENHANCEDGIVENTHEABOVEFUNDAMENTALSOFRISKMANAGEMENT,THENEXTSTEPISTODEVELOPPRINCIPLESANDAMETHODOLOGYTHATCANBEUSEDINPRACTICALDECISIONMAKINGTHISISNOT,HOWEVER,STRAIGHTFORWARDTHEREAREANUMBEROFCHALLENGESANDHEREW
17、EADDRESSSOMEOFTHESEESTABLISHINGANINFORMATIVERISKPICTUREFORTHEVARIOUSDECISIONALTERNATIVESUSINGTHISRISKPICTUREINADECISIONMAKINGCONTEXTESTABLISHINGANINFORMATIVERISKPICTUREMEANSIDENTIFYINGAPPROPRIATERISKINDICESANDASSESSMENTSOFUNCERTAINTIESUSINGTHERISKPICTUREINADECISIONMAKINGCONTEXTMEANSTHEDEFINITIONANDA
18、PPLICATIONOFRISKACCEPTANCECRITERIA,COSTBENEFITANALYSESANDTHEALARPPRINCIPLE,WHICHSTATESTHATRISKSHOULDBEREDUCEDTOALEVELWHICHISASLOWASISREASONABLYPRACTICABLEITISCOMMONTODEFINEANDDESCRIBERISKSINTERMSOFPROBABILITIESANDEXPECTEDVALUESTHISHAS,HOWEVER,BEENCHALLENGED,SINCETHEPROBABILITIESANDEXPECTEDVALUESCANC
19、AMOUFLAGEUNCERTAINTIESSEE,EG,ROSA1998ANDAVEN2003,2008BTHEASSIGNEDPROBABILITIESARECONDITIONALONANUMBEROFASSUMPTIONSANDSUPPOSITIONS,ANDTHEYDEPENDONTHEBACKGROUNDKNOWLEDGEUNCERTAINTIESAREOFTENHIDDENINTHISBACKGROUNDKNOWLEDGE,ANDRESTRICTINGATTENTIONTOTHEASSIGNEDPROBABILITIESCANCAMOUFLAGEFACTORSTHATCOULDPR
20、ODUCESURPRISINGOUTCOMESBYJUMPINGDIRECTLYINTOPROBABILITIES,IMPORTANTUNCERTAINTYASPECTSAREEASILYTRUNCATED,ANDPOTENTIALSURPRISESMAYBELEFTUNCONSIDEREDLETUS,ASANEXAMPLE,CONSIDERTHERISKS,SEENTHROUGHTHEEYESOFARISKANALYSTINTHE1970S,ASSOCIATEDWITHFUTUREHEALTHPROBLEMSFORDIVERSWORKINGONOFFSHOREPETROLEUMPROJECT
21、STHEANALYSTASSIGNSAVALUETOTHEPROBABILITYTHATADIVERWOULDEXPERIENCEHEALTHPROBLEMSPROPERLYDEFINEDDURINGTHECOMING30YEARSDUETOTHEDIVINGACTIVITIESLETUSASSUMETHATAVALUEOF1WASASSIGNED,ANUMBERBASEDONTHEKNOWLEDGEAVAILABLEATTHATTIMETHEREARENOSTRONGINDICATIONSTHATTHEDIVERSWILLEXPERIENCEHEALTHPROBLEMS,BUTWEKNOWT
22、ODAYTHATTHESEPROBABILITIESLEDTOPOORPREDICTIONSMANYDIVERSHAVEEXPERIENCEDSEVEREHEALTHPROBLEMSAVENANDVINNEM,2007BYRESTRICTINGRISKTOTHEPROBABILITYASSIGNMENTSALONE,IMPORTANTASPECTSOFUNCERTAINTYANDRISKAREHIDDENTHEREISALACKOFUNDERSTANDINGABOUTTHEUNDERLYINGPHENOMENA,BUTTHEPROBABILITYASSIGNMENTSALONEARENOTAB
23、LETOFULLYDESCRIBETHISSTATUSSEVERALRISKPERSPECTIVESANDDEFINITIONSHAVEBEENPROPOSEDINLINEWITHTHISREALIZATIONFOREXAMPLE,AVEN2007A,2008ADEFINESRISKASTHETWODIMENSIONALCOMBINATIONOFEVENTS/CONSEQUENCESANDASSOCIATEDUNCERTAINTIESWILLTHEEVENTSOCCUR,WHATWILLTHECONSEQUENCESBEACLOSELYRELATEDPERSPECTIVEISSUGGESTED
24、BYAVENANDRENN2008A,WHODEFINERISKASSOCIATEDWITHANACTIVITYASUNCERTAINTYABOUTANDSEVERITYOFTHECONSEQUENCESOFTHEACTIVITY,WHERESEVERITYREFERSTOINTENSITY,SIZE,EXTENSION,SCOPEANDOTHERPOTENTIALMEASURESOFMAGNITUDEWITHRESPECTTOSOMETHINGTHATHUMANSVALUELIVES,THEENVIRONMENT,MONEY,ETCLOSSESANDGAINS,EXPRESSEDFOREXA
25、MPLEINMONETARYTERMSORASTHENUMBEROFFATALITIES,AREWAYSOFDEFININGTHESEVERITYOFTHECONSEQUENCESSEEALSOAVENANDKRISTENSEN2005INTHECASEOFLARGEUNCERTAINTIES,RISKASSESSMENTSCANSUPPORTDECISIONMAKING,BUTOTHERPRINCIPLES,MEASURES,ANDINSTRUMENTSAREALSOREQUIRED,SUCHASTHECAUTIONARY/PRECAUTIONARYPRINCIPLESHES,2001AVE
26、NANDVINNEM2007ASWELLASROBUSTNESSANDRESILIENCESTRATEGIESIRGC,2005SEESECTIONS24AND126ANINFORMATIVEDECISIONBASISISNEEDED,BUTITSHOULDBEFARMORENUANCEDTHANCANBEOBTAINEDBYAPROBABILISTICANALYSISALONETHISHASBEENSTRESSEDBYMANYRESEARCHERS,EG,APOSTOLAKIS1990ANDAPOSTOLAKISANDLEMON2005QUALITATIVERISKANALYSISQRARE
27、SULTSARENEVERTHESOLEBASISFORDECISIONMAKINGSAFETYANDSECURITYRELATEDDECISIONMAKINGISRISKINFORMED,NOTRISKBASEDTHISCONCLUSIONISNOT,HOWEVER,JUSTIFIEDMERELYBYREFERRINGTOTHENEEDFORADDRESSINGUNCERTAINTIESBEYONDPROBABILITIESANDEXPECTEDVALUESTHEMAINISSUEHEREISTHEFACTTHATRISKSNEEDTOBEBALANCEDWITHOTHERCONCERNSR
28、ISKMANAGEMENTANDTHERISKANALYSISPROCESSTHERISKANALYSISPROCESSISACENTRALPARTOFRISKMANAGEMENT,ANDHASABASICSTRUCTURETHATISINDEPENDENTOFITSAREAOFAPPLICATIONTHEREARESEVERALWAYSOFPRESENTINGTHERISKANALYSISPROCESS,BUTMOSTSTRUCTURESCONTAINTHEFOLLOWINGTHREEKEYELEMENTSCOMPAREWITHFIGURE122PLANNINGRISKASSESSMENTE
29、XECUTIONRISKTREATMENTUSERISKANALYSES,COSTBENEFITANALYSES,ANDRELATEDTYPESOFANALYSESPROVIDESUPPORTFORDECISIONMAKING,LEAVINGTHEDECISIONMAKERSTOAPPLYDECISIONPROCESSESOUTSIDETHEDIRECTAPPLICATIONSOFTHEANALYSESWESPEAKOFMANAGERIALREVIEWANDJUDGMENTFIGURE122ITISNOTDESIRABLETODEVELOPTOOLSTHATPRESCRIBEORDICTATE
30、THEDECISIONTHATWOULDMEANTOOMECHANICALANAPPROACHTODECISIONMAKINGANDWOULDFAILTORECOGNIZETHEIMPORTANTROLEOFMANAGEMENTINPERFORMINGDIFFICULTVALUEJUDGMENTSINVOLVINGUNCERTAINTYNONETHELESS,THEREISANEEDFORGUIDANCEANDASTRUCTUREFORDECISIONMAKINGINSITUATIONSINVOLVINGHIGHRISKSANDLARGEUNCERTAINTIESTHEAIMMUSTBETOA
31、CHIEVEACERTAINLEVELOFCONSISTENCYINDECISIONMAKINGANDOFCONFIDENCEINOBTAININGDESIRABLEOUTCOMESSUCHGUIDANCEANDSTRUCTUREEXISTTOSOMEDEGREE,ANDTHECHALLENGEISTOFINDTHERIGHTLEVELTHISWILLBEDISCUSSEDINMOREDETAILINTHEFOLLOWINGSECTIONSMOREGENERALLY,THERISKMANAGEMENTPROCESSCANBEDIVIDEDINTOTHEFOLLOWINGSTEPSIRGC,20
32、05ACCORDINGTOTHEBASICMODELUSEDBYDECISIONTHEORYLINDLEY,1985MORGAN,1990KEENEY,1992HAMMONDETAL,19991IDENTIFICATIONANDGENERATIONOFRISKMANAGEMENTOPTIONSRISKREDUCTIONCANBEACCOMPLISHEDBYMANYVARIOUSMEANS,INCLUDINGTECHNICALSTANDARDSANDLIMITSTHATPRESCRIBETHEPERMISSIBLETHRESHOLDOFCONCENTRATIONS,EMISSIONS,TAKEU
33、POROTHERMEASURESOFEXPOSUREPERFORMANCESTANDARDSFORTECHNOLOGICALANDCHEMICALPROCESSESSUCHASMINIMUMTEMPERATURESINWASTEINCINERATORSTECHNICALPRESCRIPTIONSREFERRINGTOTHEBLOCKAGEOFEXPOSUREEGVIAPROTECTIVECLOTHINGORTHEIMPROVEMENTOFRESILIENCEEGVIAIMMUNIZATIONOREARTHQUAKETOLERANTSTRUCTURESGOVERNMENTALECONOMICIN
34、CENTIVESINCLUDINGTAXATION,DUTIES,SUBSIDIES,ANDCERTIFICATIONSCHEMESTHIRDPARTYINCENTIVES,IEPRIVATEMONETARYORINKINDINCENTIVESCOMPENSATIONSCHEMESMONETARYORINKINDINSURANCEANDLIABILITYCOOPERATIVEANDINFORMATIVEOPTIONSRANGINGFROMVOLUNTARYAGREEMENTSTOLABELINGANDEDUCATIONPROGRAMSALLTHESEOPTIONSCANBEUSEDINDIVI
35、DUALLYORINVARIOUSCOMBINATIONSTOACCOMPLISHEVENMOREEFFECTIVERISKREDUCTIONONEWAYOFIMPLEMENTINGTHERISKREDUCTIONISTOAPPLYTHEALARPPRINCIPLESEEALSOSECTION1252ASSESSMENTOFRISKMANAGEMENTOPTIONSEACHOFTHEOPTIONSWILLHAVEDESIREDANDUNINTENDEDCONSEQUENCESINMOSTINSTANCES,ANASSESSMENTSHOULDBEMADEACCORDINGTOTHEFOLLOW
36、INGCRITERIAEFFECTIVENESSDOESTHEOPTIONACHIEVETHEDESIREDEFFECTEFFICIENCYDOESTHEOPTIONACHIEVETHEDESIREDEFFECTWITHTHELEASTRESOURCECONSUMPTIONMINIMIZATIONOFEXTERNALSIDEEFFECTSDOESTHEOPTIONINFRINGEONOTHERVALUABLEGOODS,BENEFITS,ORSERVICESSUCHASCOMPETITIVENESS,PUBLICHEALTH,ENVIRONMENTALQUALITY,SOCIALCOHESIO
37、N,ETCDOESITIMPAIRTHEEFFICIENCYANDACCEPTANCEOFTHEGOVERNANCESYSTEMITSELFSUSTAINABILITYDOESTHEOPTIONCONTRIBUTETOTHEOVERALLGOALOFSUSTAINABILITYDOESITASSISTINSUSTAININGVITALECOLOGICALFUNCTIONS,ECONOMICPROSPERITY,ANDSOCIALCOHESIONFAIRNESSDOESTHEOPTIONBURDENTHESUBJECTSOFREGULATIONINAFAIRANDEQUITABLEMANNERP
38、OLITICALANDLEGALACCEPTABILITYISTHEOPTIONCOMPATIBLEWITHLEGALREQUIREMENTSANDPOLITICALPROGRAMSETHICALACCEPTABILITYISTHEOPTIONMORALLYACCEPTABLEPUBLICACCEPTANCEWILLTHOSEINDIVIDUALSWHOAREAFFECTEDBYITACCEPTTHEOPTIONARETHERECULTURALPREFERENCESORSYMBOLICCONNOTATIONSTHATHAVEASTRONGINFLUENCEONHOWTHERISKSAREPER
39、CEIVEDMEASURINGMANAGEMENTOPTIONSAGAINSTTHESECRITERIAMAYGIVERISETOCONFLICTINGMESSAGESANDRESULTSMANYMEASURESTHATPROVETOBEEFFECTIVEMAYTURNOUTTOBEINEFFICIENTORUNFAIRTOTHOSEWHOWILLBEBURDENEDOTHERMEASURESMAYBESUSTAINABLEBUTNOTACCEPTABLETOTHEPUBLICORIMPORTANTSTAKEHOLDERS3ABROADEVALUATIONANDJUDGMENTOFRISKMA
40、NAGEMENTOPTIONSTHISSTEPINTEGRATESTHEEVIDENCEASTOHOWTHEOPTIONSPERFORMWITHREGARDTOTHEEVALUATIONCRITERIAWITHAVALUEJUDGMENTCONCERNINGTHERELATIVEWEIGHTWHICHSHOULDBEASSIGNEDTOEACHCRITERIONIDEALLY,THEEVIDENCESHOULDCOMEFROMEXPERTSANDTHERELATIVEWEIGHTSFROMDECISIONMAKERSINPRACTICALRISKMANAGEMENT,OPTIONSAREEVA
41、LUATEDINCLOSECOOPERATIONBETWEENBOTHEXPERTSANDDECISIONMAKERS4SELECTIONOFRISKMANAGEMENTOPTIONSONCETHEDIFFERENTOPTIONSHAVEBEENEVALUATED,ADECISIONHASTOBEMADEASTOWHICHOPTIONSARESELECTEDANDWHICHAREREJECTEDINMOSTCASESTRADEOFFSHAVETOBEMADEBETWEENDIFFERENTCONCERNS译文风险管理资料来源系列可靠性工程、风险技术体系第175198页作者TERJEAVEN本章
42、回顾和讨论的基本问题和风险管理的原则，包括风险可接受性（耐受性）减少风险和ALARP原则警示和预防原则并提出了案例研究，显示在实际管理中这些问题和原则的重要性，我们仔细看一下，让我们简单谈谈风险管理的一些基本特征。风险管理概论风险管理的目的是采取一些措施进而确保一些活动可能造成的有害后果的行为、环境、和正在运作的资产，以及涉及到的平衡关系，特别是风险和成本。风险管理包括这些措施，以避免其造成的危险，并减少潜在风险，如核能，石油和天然气行业，风险管理是基于规范制度，其中详细的要求是关于制度的运作已逐渐被取代为一个更加重要目标的制度，这里的重点是如何实现这个目标的手段。风险管理是一个目标导向制度的
43、组成部分。人们承认，风险不能被消除，但可以被预测到。现在有一个巨大的动力，作为一个整体在各个行业和社会中实施风险管理的行业这是风险管理合适的框架，它有很高的期望实现高水平的性能。风险管理涉及到实现增益和损失最小化机会之间适当的平衡，这是一个良好的管理实践中不可或缺的组成部分，是良好公司治理的基本要素。这是一个反复的过程，当按顺序进行，可能导致决策水平的不断提高，促进性能组成的不断提高。为了支持决策方面设计和运作，进行风险分析。它们包括危害和威胁，成因分析，结果分析和风险描述鉴定，得出结果，然后进行评估，整体分析和评估被称为风险评估。其次是风险评估风险处理，这是一个过程，涉及发展和实施措施进行修
44、改的风险，包括旨在避免措施，减少（“优化”），转让，或持续风险。风险转移意味着分享与另一方的利益或损失与风险。它通常是通过保险生效。风险管理涵盖了所有的方向和协调的组织方面的风险控制活动。这个术语是在ISO/IEC指南73行（2002）。在许多企业，风险管理任务分为三个主要类别战略风险，财务风险和操作风险。战略风险方面，例如包括兼并和收购的因素，这对于企业的长期战略和计划有重要，金融风险包括企业的财务状况，意义技术，竞争，政治条件，法律和法规，以及劳动力市场，和劳动力市场包括市场风险，商品和服务，外汇汇率和证券的成本（股票，债券等）相关信用风险，与债务人没有履行按照约定的义务有关流动性风险，反
45、映获得现金缺乏及时的方式出售资产的困难操作风险是有关条件影响正常工作的情况意外的事件，包括故障和缺陷，质量差，自然灾害预期行为破坏，心怀不满的雇员等丧失竞争力，关键人员法律的情况下，例如有缺陷的相关合同及责任保险对于一个企业成功实施风险管理，需要高层管理人员参与和活动，必须实行多层次的一些要点，以确保成功。一个风险管理，即战略，建立企业如何定义和实现风险管理应遵循一个简单的（最低要求）的监管要求，或应一个是“班上最好”的原则。一个为企业，即在正式流程和程序，企业是按照风险管理流程的建立。管理结构的建立，使用角色和责任，这样，风险分析过程深入组织中。分析和支持系统，如风险分析工具，执行，记录的事
46、件，事故等各类系统沟通，培训，风险管理文化和发展，使的能力，理解，并在该组织的动机水平得到提高能力，理解，激励组织内的水平得到提高。鉴于上述风险管理的基础，下一步是制定原则和方法，可用于实际的决策，然而，我们面对着许多挑战，在这里我们针对其中的一些建立了一个内容丰富的各种决策方案的风险图片使用该图片中的风险决策背景建立一个内容丰富的图片，指的是适当的风险指数和风险评估的不确定性。在使用方面的决定做出的风险图表示的定义和风险接受标准的应用，成本效益分析和ALARP原则，其中规定，风险应该降低到最低水平，是在合理可行的。这是共同的定义和描述的概率和风险的预期值方面然而，受到了挑战，因为概率和预期值
47、可伪装的不确定性见，例如，罗莎（1998）和艾文（2003,2008B）项。分配的概率是有条件的假设及推测数量，他们依靠的背景知识。不确定性往往是隐藏在这个背景知识，以及限制注意分配概率可以伪装的因素，可能会产生通过直接跃入概率，重要的不确定性方面是很容易被截断，潜在的惊喜可能会带来惊人成果。让我们作为一个例子，考虑风险，通过在20世纪70年代风险分析师与海上石油未来的健康项目工作的问题。该分析师的概率分配一个潜水员将经历一个在未来30年中，由于潜水活动的健康问题（正确的定义）的价值。让我们假设1的价值被分配，在当时的现有知识为基础的数字。没有明显的迹象表明，潜水员将遇到的健康问题，但我们知道
48、今天是导致贫困的预测这些概率。许多潜水员们已经历了严重的健康问题（艾文和VINNEM，2007年）。通过限制转让的概率风险，仅不确定性和风险的一个重要方面是隐藏的，这一种现象的深层次缺乏了解，但单是任务的概率不能够充分描述这种状态。几个危险的观点和定义已提出符合这个实现，例如，艾文（2007年A，2008A）定义的事件/后果和相关的不确定性的二维组合风险（将在事件发生时，会出现什么后果而定）。一个密切相关的观点和建议的艾文雷恩（2008A），谁定义与作为的不确定性及活动，其中严重程度是指强度，大小，扩展范围和其他潜在措施的后果的严重性活动相关的风险关于人类价值的东西（生活，环境，金钱等）的幅度
49、。损失和收益，例如以货币形式或表达的死亡人数，是界定后果的严重程度重的方法。另见文和克里斯腾森。在较大的不确定性情况下，风险评估能决定决策，但其他原则，措施和手段也需要，如警示/预防原则（住户开支统计调查，2001年艾文和VINNEM2007年），以及鲁棒性和弹性策略（伊斯兰革命卫队，2005年），见第24和126AN翔实的决策依据是必要的，但应该远远超过可以由一个单独的概率分析得到详细的结果。THIS取得了许多研究人员强调，如APOSTOLAKIS（1990年）和APOSTOLAKIS和LEMON（2005年）定性风险分析（QRA）的结果永远不是决策的唯一依据安全和保安相关的决策是风险告知，而不是基于风险的这一结论是没有，不过理由仅仅是参照了处理超出预期值的概率和不确定性的需要,这里的主要问题是，风险需要与其他关注平衡。
