1、石油危機,對國際政治及經濟的影響,What Is Petroleum?,Petroleum is called crude oil .It is a thick, flammable, yellow-to-black colored liquid .formed from the remains of plants and tiny animals; buried by layers of mud and sand; built up great pressure and heat; changed into kerogen; a waxy substance that forms oil a
2、nd natural gas,The Primary Sources of Energy for the World,The Main Uses for Oil,石油在世界的剩餘量,根據哈伯特定律,任何油田被開採出一半時,產量將達到最高峰,開採會變得困難,產量減少美國,北海油田的產量已減少OPEC的油藏量比宣稱的少未來油價必定大漲開發ANWR不是解決方案,What is OPECs Mission ?,OPECs mission is to coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of Member Countries and ensure th
3、e stabilization of oil prices in order to secure an efficient, economic and regular supply of petroleum to consumers, a steady income to producers and a fair return on capital to those investing in the petroleum industry .,The Price Level of Oil,1948-$2.51957-$3.11970-$3.01972-$3.41974-$121978-$1419
4、81-$351985-$10,1986-$181991-$251999-$252001-$28,The Oil Price,The World Events Affecting Price Level of Oil,1914：1st World War started1939：2nd World War started1970：OPEC begins to assert power; raises tax rate US begins mandatory oil allocation1974：Oil embargo ends,1975：Saudis increase tax rates and
5、 royalties1979：OPEC decides on 14.5% price increase for Jan 1, 1979 OPEC raises prices 14.5% again on April 1, 1979 OPEC raises prices 15% on July 1,1979,The World Events Affecting Price Level of Oil (2),1980：Saudis raise marker crude price from 19$/bbl to 26$/bbl Kuwait, Iran, and Libya production
6、cuts drop OPEC oil production to 27 million b/d Saudi Light raised to $28/bbl,1981：Saudi Light raised to $34/bbl First major fighting in Iran-Iraq War US boycotts Libyan crude; OPEC plans 18 million b/d output1982：OPEC output drops to 15 million b/ OPEC cuts prices by $5/bbl and agrees to 17.5 milli
7、on b/d output,(3),1984：OPEC accord cuts Saudi Light price to $28/bbl1985：OPEC output falls to 13.7 million b/d1986：OPEC output reaches 18 million b/d1988：OPEC/Non-OPEC meeting failure,1989：Exxons Valdez tanker spills 11 million gallons of crude oil OPEC raises production ceiling to 19.5 million b/d1
8、990：Iraq invades Kuwait1991：Persian Gulf war ends1992：UN sanctions threatened against Libya,(4),1993：Kuwait boosts production by 560,000 b/d in defiance of OPEC quota1996：Extremely cold weather in the US and Europe1997：Financial crisis in Asia1999：Crude oil price dropped to about $11 in 1999,2001：price bounced to over $26per barrel,石油危機的解決方案,石油供給缺乏迫使我們轉向其他能源天然氣是最潔淨的能源但亦日益缺乏煤儲量多,但會產生嚴重污染節約能源只能延後石油嚴重供需失調的時間點,數10年後,太陽能電池技術才足夠成熟氫電池汽車不會很快大量在市場出現風能科技已成熟風力可取代燃煤發電,釋出的煤可轉化成車輛的燃油,以替代汽,柴油,
