1、CRISIS,CONTAGIONANDBAILOUTSWHATSNEXTFORTHEEUROPEANUNIONEUROPEANFINANCIALOFFICIALSFINALLYGOTOUTINFRONTOFSWIFTMOVINGMARKETDEVELOPMENTSONMAY10THBYLAUNCHINGAHUGE960BILLION750BILLIONEUROFINANCIALSTABILIZATIONPLANEXCEEDINGMOSTEXPECTATIONSTOBAILOUTGREECEANDENSURETHEVIABILITYOFTHEEUROPEANMONETARYUNION,ATLEA
2、STFORNOWSOMEOBSERVERSSAYTHEMOVEPREVENTEDAPOTENTIALFINANCIALMELTDOWNINWHICHCONCERNSOVERSOVEREIGNDEBTDEFAULTSWOULDHAVESWIFTLYLEDTOLARGESCALEBANKRUNSINSOMEEUROPEANCOUNTRIESMANYEXPERTSTHISWEEKEXPECTEDTHEPACKAGETOCONTINUETOCALMMARKETSATLEASTTEMPORARILYBYGUARANTEEINGMOSTSOVEREIGNANDSOMEPRIVATEDEBTINGREECE
3、ORBYPROVIDINGCREDITFOROTHERTROUBLEDMEMBERECONOMIESINTHEFUTURE,INCLUDINGPORTUGAL,SPAINANDIRELANDTHEBAILOUTWHICHALSOINCLUDESSOMEBILATERALLOANAGREEMENTS,USFUNDSANDDOLLARSWAPAGREEMENTSTHROUGHTHEFEDERALRESERVEHADTHEIMMEDIATEEFFECTOFSWEEPINGAWAYFEARSOFAPOSSIBLECOLLAPSEOFTHEEUROZONESFINANCIALSYSTEMSUCHANOU
4、TCOMEWOULDHAVESETOFFANEWROUNDOFRECESSIONINEUROPEANDMIGHTHAVEDRAGGEDTHEWORLDFINANCIALSYSTEMBACKTOTHEDEPTHSREACHED12TO18MONTHSAGOORWORSESOMECRITICSSTILLVIEWTHEOVERALLSTABILIZATIONPACKAGE,WHICHLEFTMANYDETAILSVAGUE,ASASHORTTERMFIXTHATULTIMATELYWILLFAILTOADDRESSDEEPPUBLICANDPRIVATEDEBTLEVELS,PRESSINGFISC
5、ALDEFICITSANDPERSISTENTINTERNALANDEXTERNALTRADEIMBALANCESONEEXPLANATIONFORWHYEUROPESFINANCIALAUTHORITIESDIDNOTACTSOONERTOAVERTPOTENTIALDISASTERTHELEADINGPLAYERINANYSTABILIZATIONMEASUREISGERMANY,BECAUSEOFTHESIZEANDSTRENGTHOFITSECONOMYBUTGERMANYWASCAUGHTUPINREGIONALELECTIONSINNORTHRHINEWESTPHALIATHATW
6、ERECRITICALTOTHEFUTUREOFANGELAMERKEL,THEGERMANCHANCELLOR,ANDHERCOALITIONMERKELAPPEAREDTOWANTTODELAYANYACTIONONTHEEUROPEANFINANCIALCRISISUNTILAFTERELECTIONSBECAUSEMUCHOFTHEGERMANELECTORATETAKESADIMVIEWONBAILOUTSFORCOUNTRIESTHOUGHTTOHAVEOVERBORROWEDANDOVERSPENTTHEELECTIONS,HELDTHISPASTWEEKENDASTHEBAIL
7、OUTMEASURESWEREBEINGWORKEDOUT,RESULTEDINASERIOUSDEFEATFORMERKELSCOALITIONANYWAY,ANDMERKELISNOWBEINGROUNDLYCRITICIZEDFORALLOWINGFINANCIALEVENTSINEUROPETOSKIDNEARLYOUTOFCONTROLOTHERSPOINTOUTTHATDELAYINGACTIONMAYHAVEMADETHEBAILOUTMORECOSTLYTOGERMANYANDOTHERSTHANITWOULDHAVEBEENEARLIER,ASBORROWINGCOSTSCL
8、IMBEDDRAMATICALLYINREACTIONTOSWIFTLYMOUNTINGPERCEIVEDRISKSINTHERUNUPTOTHEANNOUNCEMENTABOUTTHEEUROPEANAIDPACKAGE,WHARTONPROFESSORSMAUROFGUILLENBORNANDEDUCATEDINSPAINANDSAIKATCHAUDHURIBORNANDEDUCATEDINGERMANY,ANDJEANSALMONABORNANDEDUCATEDINFRANCE,FOUNDERANDCHAIRMANOFTHEEDITORIALBOARDOFPARISTECHREVIEW,
9、PARTICIPATEDINANINTERVIEWONTHELIKELYOUTCOMESFROMTHEFINANCIALCRISISFACINGGREECE,SOMEOFITSSISTERCOUNTRIESANDTHEEUROPEANMONETARYUNIONMOREGENERALLYHOWDIDEVENTSSPINSOOUTOFCONTROLHOWWILLTHEPOLITICSOFTHECRISISAFFECTTHEEUROZONESECONOMICPERFORMANCEANDWILLTHEREBESIMILARCRISESINTHEFUTUREGUILLEN,CHAUDHURIANDSAL
10、MONAADDRESSEDTHESEANDOTHERQUESTIONSASWELLASMANYLONGERTERMISSUESRELEVANTINTHEWAKEOFBAILOUTEFFORTSONMAY7,JUSTBEFORETHEHUGEFINANCIALSUPPORTPACKAGEWASANNOUNCEDMAUROGUILLENTHEBACKGROUNDTOALLOFTHISIS,OFCOURSE,ALITTLEBITMORETHAN10YEARSAGOWHENSOMEEUROPEANCOUNTRIESADOPTEDTHEEUROASTHEIRCURRENCYBUTTHEYDIDNTTHI
11、NKABOUTSITUATIONSINWHICHMAYBETHEADOPTIONOFACOMMONCURRENCYWOULDCREATESTRESSAND,INPARTICULAR,THEFACTTHATEVENTHOUGHTHEREISACOMMONCURRENCYINTHECENTEROFEUROPETHEREARENOMECHANISMSINPLACEREALLYTOMAKESURETHATALLTHECOUNTRIESAREPLAYINGBYTHESAMERULESANDTHATALLTHECOUNTRIESAREESSENTIALLYCOMPLYINGWITHSOMEBASICCRI
12、TERIA,WHICHAREHALFECONOMICANDHALFPOLITICALSOTHISISNOTJUSTABOUTECONOMICSITISALSOABOUTPOLITICSCRITERIAHAVINGTODOWITHBUDGETDEFICITSANDHAVINGTODOWITHTHEWAYINWHICHYOUAREMAKINGSUREYOURCOUNTRYCANREMAINCOMPETITIVEAFTERYOUHAVEESSENTIALLYGIVENAWAYAVERYIMPORTANTPOLICYOPTIONINYOURTOOLKIT,WHICHISTODEVALUEYOURCUR
13、RENCYINOTHERWORDS,YOUARESURRENDERINGYOURSOVEREIGNTYINTERMSOFYOURCURRENCY,WHICHMEANSTHATWHENYOUAREINHARDTIMES,YOUCANNOTDEVALUEINORDERTOBECOMEMORECOMPETITIVEBUTATTHESAMETIME,THEARCHITECTSOFTHISMONETARYUNION10YEARSAGODIDNTTHINKABOUTWHATSHOULDBEDONEINCASEONEORMORECOUNTRIESACTUALLYGETINTOTROUBLETHEYDIDNT
14、THINKABOUTWHATKINDSOFINSTITUTIONALARRANGEMENTANDDECISIONMAKINGPROCEDURESHOULDBEINPLACETOTACKLEACRISISTHATUNFORTUNATELYASALWAYSHAPPENSWITHTHESESOVEREIGNDEBTCRISESHASBUILTUPOVERAVERY,VERYLONGPERIODOFTIMEBUTTHECRISESUNFOLDVERYQUICKLYSOTHEROOTSOFTHESITUATIONARETOBEFOUNDINTHELASTFIVEYEARSOR10YEARSANDPROB
15、ABLYTHELAST15YEARS,SINCEGREECE,PORTUGAL,SPAINANDSOONBECAMEMEMBERSOFTHEEUROPEANUNIONINTHEMID1980SBUTTHEUNFOLDINGOFTHECRISISACTUALLYHASTAKENPLACEOVERJUSTAPERIODOFTWOMONTHSORTHREEMONTHSAND,THEREFORE,IFYOUDIDNTPLAN,ESPECIALLYINSTITUTIONALLY,FORTHESITUATIONTHENTHEREISNOWAYINREALTIMETHATYOUCANACTUALLYPUTI
16、NPLACETHEMECHANISMSTOCOPEWITHTHESITUATIONSAIKATCHAUDHURITHELATESTECONOMICCRISISSHOWSITSTIMETOCREATETHERIGHTINSTITUTIONSANDMECHANISMSFORDEALINGWITHTHEKINDSOFFINANCIALCRISESSEENINEUROPELASTWEEKWILLWESEEMORECRISESITHINKTHATINAGLOBALECONOMICSYSTEMWEWILLSEEMORECRISESTHATSJUSTTHENATUREOFITITHINKITISAGOODT
17、IMETOSTARTTHINKINGABOUTTHERIGHTINSTITUTIONSANDMECHANISMSATTHOSELEVELS,WHICHCANRESPONDTOTHESETYPESOFCRISESINANEFFECTIVEFASHIONANDTHATSBEENTHELESSONFROMTHEGLOBALFINANCIALCRISISITHINKTHATSTHELESSONFROMTHEGREECEPACKAGEITHINKTHATKNOWLEDGEREACHEDACERTAINLEVELINEUROPEANDTHATWEWILLSEEASTRONGRESPONSECOMINGFR
18、OMEUROPE,FROMGERMANY,FRANCEANDOTHERCOUNTRIESTHEYCANTLETTHEEUFAILITSTHAT“TOOBIGTOFAIL“TYPEOFCONCEPTAPPLIEDINASLIGHTLYDIFFERENTWAYGUILLNASYOUKNOW,THISISAVERYCONTROVERSIALISSUETHATUSEDTOBETHEWAYINWHICHTHEIMFINTERNATIONALMONETARYFUNDTENDEDTOOPERATE,ESPECIALLYINTHEBEGINNINGOFTHE1980SWHENACOUNTRYKNOCKEDON
19、THEDOORSAYING,“WECANTKEEPGOINGWENEEDABAILOUTWOULDYOUHELPUS”THEIMFTYPICALLYRESPONDEDBYSAYING,“SUREWEWILLHELPYOU,BUTBYTHEWAYYOUNEEDTOCHANGETHISORTHATVARIOUSECONOMICPOLICIES”THEIMFCAMEUNDERATTACKFORACTUALLYGOINGTOOFARINTERMSOFASKINGCOUNTRIESTODOCERTAINTHINGSTHAT,INSOMEINSTANCES,PROVEDTOBECOUNTERPRODUCT
20、IVESOITISTRICKYTHEREISAPROFESSOROFMANAGEMENTHEREATWHARTON,WITOLDHENISZ,INMYDEPARTMENTWHOHASDEMONSTRATEDTHATWHENYOUIMPOSEREFORMSFROMTHEOUTSIDE,WHENACOUNTRYISINDIRESTRAITS,ITISACTUALLYSOMUCHMORELIKELYTHATTHEREWILLBEABACKLASHAGAINSTTHOSEREFORMSITSNOTJUSTABOUTECONOMICSWECANTRYTOFIGUREOUTWHATISTHEBESTTEC
21、HNIQUEOFSOLUTIONWEHAVEGREATECONOMISTSHEREATWHARTONWHOCOULDTELLUSTHEBESTSOLUTIONFROMATECHNICALPOINTOFVIEWBUTSAIKATJUSTMENTIONEDTHATYOUALSONEEDTOTAKEINTOCONSIDERATIONWHATISPOSSIBLEPOLITICALLYPOSSIBLEANDTHENWHATAREGOINGTOBETHECONSEQUENCESOFTHISLOOKINGDOWNTHEROAD,DEPENDINGONHOWYOUPROCEEDNOWTHATSWHYATTHE
22、BEGINNINGIWASSAYINGYOUALSOHAVETOTAKEINTOCONSIDERATIONTHEPOLITICALCOSTORTHEPOLITICALBENEFITSORBOTHOFDOINGTHINGSINAPARTICULARWAYGREECE,FIRSTOFALL,WHATITNEEDSISTOTELLTHETRUTHITHASNTGREECENEEDSTOAVOIDTHESITUATIONINWHICHTHEYDONTEVENKNOWHOWMUCHMONEYTHEREISINTHECOUNTRYBECAUSETHEIRFISCALSYSTEMITSJUSTAPROBLE
23、MTHATTHEREISSOMUCHTAXEVASIONINTHECOUNTRYTHEYJUSTLETTHATPROBLEMGROWINANUNCONTROLLEDWAYTHATISALSOTRUEOFITALY,OFCOURSE,IDONTWANTTOSINGLEOUTGREECEASBEINGINSTITUTIONALLYADISASTERBUTITSEEMSTOBETHATTHEREAREALOTOFTHINGSINGREECETHATARENOTWORKINGPROPERLYBUTIFYOUTRYTOIMPOSEASOLUTIONFROMOUTSIDEITMAYNOTBETHATSUN
24、LIKELYTOBETHEBESTWAYOFDOINGITJEANSALMONALETMEGIVEYOUJUSTASENTENCE,WHICHWASGIVENBYFORMERPRIMEMINISTEROFFRANCE,ANDSOCIALISTLAURENTFABIUS,WHOLAUNCHEDTHEEUROIDEAHEWASATTHETOPOFGOVERNMENTHESAID,“WEHAVETOBEREALISTICWEHAVETOSEEREALLYWHATTHEPRESENTSITUATIONISINSTEADOFWHATWETHINKITSHOULDBE”ANDTHATWELOOKATTHE
25、SITUATION,NOTASITISBUTASITSHOULDBE,EXPLAINSALOTOFOURPROBLEMSINEUROPETHERESULTISTHATTHEPEOPLEHAVESOMEONETOBLAMETHEYBLAMETHEBANKSOFCOURSEANDTHEYBLAMEANYSCAPEGOATFORINSTANCE,IDONTKNOWWHETHERYOUHAVELOOKEDATTHERECENTELECTIONSINHUNGARYTHEFARRIGHTPARTYMADEALOTOFPOLITICALGAINSANDITISNOTONLYTHEREINFRANCETHER
26、ECENTLOCALELECTIONSRESULTEDINFRENCHCONSERVATIVEPOLITICIANJEANMARIELEPENANDHISVERYFARRIGHT,ALMOSTFASCIST,PARTYGETTINGMORETHAN15ALLOFTHATEXPLAINSTHATTHEPEOPLEDONOTKNOWEXACTLYWHATTODONOW,COMINGTOTHEEUROIDONTSEEHOWWECANGOAHEADWITHOUTMORECOORDINATIONSOMEKINDOFCOMMONPOLICYHAVINGCOMMONMONEYWITHOUTACOMMONFI
27、SCALPOLICYDOESNTREALLYMAKESENSEANDWITHOUTHAVINGACOMMONSOCIALSYSTEMDOESNTMAKESENSEATPRESENT,THEMINDOFTHEFRENCHPEOPLEIS“LETSDOSOMETHING,BUTTHEGERMANSWILLPAY”ANDFRENCHPRESIDENTNICOLASSARKOZYISQUITEGOODATTHATINCONVINCINGTHEMTOGETGERMANCHANCELLORMERKELTOPAYINSPITEOFHERPOLITICALSITUATIONTODAYWITHTHEINTERN
28、ATIONALFINANCIALCRISISONTHEREALECONOMICIMPACTOFINDEPTH,ENTERPRISEFUNDSMANAGEMENTFINANCIALSTRATEGYCHAINMANAGEMENTINTOTHETRADITIONALFINANCIALMANAGEMENTASAMAJORBREAKTHROUGHINTHETRENDWITHTHEGRADUALSPREADOFFINANCIALCRISIS,WEAKGLOBALECONOMICGROWTH,FURTHERINCREASEPRESSUREONTHEOPERATIONOFENTERPRISES,CAPITAL
29、CHAINTENSIONISSUESBECOMEMOREPROMINENTINTHISCASE,STRENGTHENINGFINANCIALMANAGEMENTANDIMPROVEEFFICIENCYINTHEUSEOFFUNDSHASBECOMEABUSINESSIMPERATIVEINCOMBINATIONWITHCHANGESINTHEENVIRONMENTOFFINANCIALRISKS,ACTUALCASESOFENTERPRISEFORTHECARRIER,WILLRAISEFUNDSTOFINANCETHESTRATEGICCORESTRATEGY,THEFUNDMANAGEME
30、NTWITHTHECOMBINATIONOFCORPORATECULTURE,ACOMPREHENSIVEBUDGETMANAGEMENTASAMEANSTOBUILDFUNDINGCHAINVIRTUOUSCIRCLEMECHANISMEXCELLENTFINANCIALMANAGEMENT,ENHANCETHEPROFITABILITYOFRAISINGCAPITALFUNDSABILITYTOIDENTIFYTHECHAINOFRISK,THUSFURTHERIMPROVINGTHEIRFINANCIALRISKPREVENTIONANDEARLYWARNINGMECHANISMGUIL
31、LENIWOULDTENDTOTHINKTHATITISNOTTHATLIKELYTHATTHEEUROZONEWOULDUNRAVELIDONTTHINKITISVERYLIKELYITSNOTVERYLIKELYBECAUSEALLITWOULDTAKEFORTHEWHOLETHINGTOBESAVEDISFORTHEGERMANSTOSENDAVERYCLEARSIGNALTHATTHEYARENOTGOINGTOLETTHATHAPPENIFTHINGSGETBADENOUGHINTHENEXTTWOORTHREEMONTHSTHATTHEREISADANGERTHATIDONTTHI
32、NKANYBODYSHOULDTAKEPLEASUREINSEEINGTHEEUROPEANMONETARYUNIONORTHEEUROPEANUNIONEXPERIENCINGDIFFICULTYQUITEFRANKLY,IAMDISMAYEDATTHEFACTTHATSOMECOMMENTATORS,ESPECIALLYINTHEPRESS,ARECOMINGVERYCLOSETOCELEBRATINGLIKESAYING,“WETOLDYOUTHATTHISWASGOINGTOHAPPENTOYOU,”ASIFTHISWOULDNTHAVEANYCONSEQUENCESONTHEECON
33、OMICRECOVERYHEREINTHEUNITEDSTATESOR,FORTHATMATTER,RECOVERYAROUNDTHEWORLDITWOULDHAVEDEVASTATINGCONSEQUENCESCHAUDHURIISTRONGLYAGREEWITHMAUROONTHISBECAUSEIREALLYTHINKTHATITISVERYUNLIKELYTHATTHEYWILLUNRAVELTHEEUROZONEOROTHERASPECTSOFTHEEUTHEBASICSITUATIONISNOWTHATWELIVEINAGLOBALLYINTERDEPENDENTECONOMICS
34、YSTEMITISNOTJUSTABOUTEUROPEITISABOUTTHEGLOBALFINANCIALMARKETSBEINGLINKEDITISABOUTEXPORTSHAPPENINGITISABOUTMARKETSOPENINGUPIFYOULOOKATPROCTORGAMBLESEARNINGSRESULTSDECLAREDVERYRECENTLY,ORIBMS,CLEARLYTHEIRRECOVERYISCOMINGFROMOTHERPLACESTHANTHEIRDOMESTICMARKETRIGHTNOWTHATSWHYTHEYAREPOSTINGRETURNSSOWHETH
35、ERWELIKEITORNOT,THEMARKETSARECONNECTEDANDTHESTOCKMARKETSARECERTAINLYSENDINGUSTHOSESIGNALSTHATSTHESITUATIONTHEQUESTIONBECOMESHOWCANWEBESTALIGNAND,PERHAPS,ADDRESSDISCREPANCIESITISTHEREATTHESOCIALLEVELITISATTHEECONOMICLEVELITISATTHEPOLITICALLEVELANDREALLYITISTHEINSTITUTIONS,LIKEWESEEINTHEFINANCIALSYSTE
36、M,WHICHHAVETOGETTOGETHERANDDEVELOPTHESEMECHANISMSITHINKTHERESNOCHOICETHEOTHERPOINTIWANTTOMAKEISTHATTHEREISASHORTTERMCONSIDERATION,AMIDTERMCONSIDERATION,ANDALONGTERMCONSIDERATION,WHICHHASBEENIMPLICIT,RIGHTYES,MERKELPARTYSUFFEREDAMAJORDEFEATINREGIONALELECTIONSLASTWEEKEND,WHICHWILLMAKEITHARDFORHERTOGOV
37、ERNFROMBERLINANDGERMANYASAWHOLEBUTTHEREAREMUCHLARGERIMPLICATIONSHEREFORTHESYSTEMIFITCOMESDOWNTOIT,THATNOTWITHSTANDING,HERFOCUSWILLBEONSAVINGTHEGERMANECONOMYBYSAVINGTHEEUITHINKTHEPOINTHEREISHOWCANWEACHIEVETHATINTEGRATIONINAMEANINGFULWAYITWOULDBEEASYIFALLNEWENTRANTS,IFTHEWEAKERECONOMIESINEUROPEINCLUDI
38、NGTHEEASTERNEUROPEANONES,WEREALSOFALTERINGATTHISSTAGETOMAKETHEARGUMENTTHATTHEWHOLEEUANDTHEEUROISAFAILEDEXPERIMENTBUTITSNOTTHECASETHECZECHREPUBLIC,SLOVAKIA,ROMANIAANDSOFORTHAREMUCHBETTERINTEGRATEDTHEYARETHELOWER“COST”PRODUCTIONCENTERS,OUTSOURCINGCENTERS,WITHHIGHEXPERTISEMINDYOUWITHINTHEEUANDITWORKSGR
39、EECEWASNOTINTEGRATEDFORTHEVARIOUSCOMPETITIVEREASONSORLACKTHEREOFTHATWEWERETALKINGABOUTSALMONADURINGTHESECONDWORLDWAR,WINSTONCHURCHILLCOULDGETTHEBRITISHPEOPLETOACCEPTVERYSTRONGMEASURESBECAUSEITWASFORTHEWARTHEPROBLEMINEUROPEISTHATPEOPLEDONOTFEELITISTHEWAR,ALTHOUGHITHINKITISTHEWARADIFFERENTTYPEOFWARAGA
40、IN,SORRYTOQUOTEMYFRENCHCOCITIZENSBUTONEOFTHEHEADSOFTHESOCIALISTPARTYSAIDLASTWEEKWHENTHEYHADTOVOTEINPARLIAMENT“FOR”OR“GAINST”GIVING6BILLIONTOGREECE,“EVENTUALLY,OKAY,WEAREGOINGTOVOTEFOR,BUTIMUSTSAYANDEMPHASIZETHEFACTTHATWEAREVERYMUCHAGAINSTTHEMEASURESTHATGREECEISTAKINGNOW”SOTHISISREALLYSERIOUSANDITHIN
41、KTHATONLYASETOFMEASURESWHICHWOULDREORGANIZETHEFINANCIALSYSTEMATTHEWORLDWIDELEVELWOULDHAVEAPSYCHOLOGICALIMPACTONTHEPOPULATIONSANDONTHEPEOPLEWHOVOTEUNLESSSOMETHINGLIKETHATHAPPENEDANDTHEUSHASTOTAKETHELEADNOTHINGCANHAPPENUNLESSPRESIDENTBARACKOBAMATOGETHERWITHTHEIMFSAYS,“OKAYENOUGHISENOUGHLETSSTARTSOMEVE
42、RYSTRONGMEASURES”GUILLENWHATISTHATGOINGTOMEANFORTHEDOLLARWELL,ITHINKAMERICANSALLOFUS,INOTHERWORDSAREGOINGTOHAVETOTHINKVERYHARDABOUTWHATWEAREDOING,ANDOURSTANDARDOFLIVINGISGOINGTOCOMEDOWNONAVERAGEITHINKTHISISINEVITABLEUNLESSWEBECOMEMORECOMPETITIVEITISABADTHINGTHATNOWWHENTHEREISUNCERTAINTYINTHEWORLD,TH
43、EDOLLARSUDDENLYBECOMESMOREVALUABLEBECAUSETHATISHURTINGSOMEOFTHEINCIPIENTEXPORTACTIVITIESGOINGINANDOUTOFTHISECONOMYSOITISACTUALLY,ITHINK,BADTHATTHISISHAPPENINGBUTPEOPLESEEMTOCELEBRATEITBECAUSESUDDENLYTHEDOLLARISALITTLEBITSTRONGERTHATISACTUALLYTHELASTTHINGTHATWEWOULDLIKETOHAVERIGHTNOWINTHEUSASTRONGDOL
44、LARWHATWENEEDISARELATIVELYWEAKDOLLARWENEEDTOREDUCETHETRADEDEFICITANDWENEEDTOBECOMEMORECOMPETITIVEANDIMPORTLESSTHISISACTUALLYPRODUCINGTHEWRONGSETOFINCENTIVESBUT,AGAIN,ITHINKTHEREARETOOMANY“IFS”ANDTOOMANYMOVINGPARTSINTHEQUESTIONSTHATWEREJUSTFORMULATEDAGAIN,ITHINK,RIGHTNOWGIVENTHATTHEHOTSPOTSEEMSTOBEEU
45、ROPETHATSTHECENTEROFATTENTIONNOWWHATWENEEDTODOISTOTRYTORESOLVETHESITUATIONTHEREANDTHENTAKEITFROMTHERECHINAMERCHANTSBANKCMBOPENEDITSNEWYORKBRANCHTHEFIRSTCHINESEBANKBRANCHOPENINGINTHEUSAFTERADECADEONOCTOBER8,2008,JUSTASLEHMANBROTHERSWASINTHROESOFCOLLAPSINGANDTHEGLOBALECONOMICCRISISBEGANESCALATINGHAVIN
46、GWITNESSEDTHECRISISFROMTHEEYEOFTHESTORMONWALLSTREET,ANDTHENTHEHUGECREDITRELEASEINCHINALASTYEAR,MAWEIHUA,THEBANKSPRESIDENT,HISTHOUGHTSONWHATLIESAHEADFORHISCOUNTRYSFASTCHANGINGFINANCIALSERVICESSECTORMA,WHOHASFORGEDAREPUTATIONASONEOFCHINASMOSTCHARISMATICBUSINESSLEADERSSINCEJOININGTHETHENFLEDGLINGSHENZH
47、ENBASEDBANKIN1999,ALSODISCUSSESHISLEADERSHIPPHILOSOPHYANDWHATITTAKESTOMANAGEACOMPANYSUCHASCMBNOWONEOFTHEBIGGESTPLAYERSINITSSECTORMAWEIHUALASTYEARSNEWLOANSWEREMADEUNDERSPECIALCIRCUMSTANCESTHECOUNTRYNEEDEDTOESCAPETHESHADOWOFTHEFINANCIALCRISIS,SOBOTHFISCALANDMONETARYMEASURESWERENECESSARYTOMOVECHINAOUTO
48、FTHECRISISANDRESTORECONFIDENCEGIVENTHESPEEDATWHICHTHELOANSAREMADE,CHINASABILITYTOCOLLECTINFORMATIONONTHEM,ESTIMATEPROJECTRISKANDIMPLEMENTGUARANTEESISNOTONTHESAMELEVELASTHATOFAMERICACONCERNSABOUTTHESELOANSAREWELLFOUNDED,ANDPEOPLEAREBECOMINGMOREAWAREOFTHERISKSINVOLVEDASFORTHERMB10TRILLIONOFLOANS,MYVIE
49、WISTHATTHELOANSRELATEDTOGOVERNMENTPLATFORMS,REALESTATEANDLOANSTOREDUNDANTINFRASTRUCTUREANDOVERCAPACITYHAVEMORERISKHOWEVER,ALARGESCALERISEINNEWNONPERFORMINGLOANSTHISYEARISUNLIKELYFIRSTOFALL,MOSTOFTHELOANSARENTDUEFORANOTHERTWOTOTHREEYEARSSECOND,CHINASECONOMYHASINCREDIBLEPOTENTIALOVERTHENEXTTWOTOTHREEDECADES,MAINTAININGGDPGROWTHOF8SHOULDNOTBEAPROBLEMCHINASINDUSTRIALIZATIONANDURBANIZATIONCONTINUETOMAKEITONEOFTHETOPDESTINATIONSFORFOREIGNINVESTMENTONTHEOTHERHAND,THEGROWINGDOMESTICECONOMYANDTHECHANGEOFPEOPLESATTITUDESTOWARDCREDITANDCONSUMPTIONSHOULDALS
