1、外文原文THECHINESERMBITSVALUE,ITSPEG,ANDITSFUTURETRADEIMBALANCESHAVEMORETODOWITHTHEUSTHANWITHCHINATHEVALUATIONOFTHECHINESERENMINBIRMBHASDRAWNLOTSOFATTENTIONLATELYANDAGREATDEALOFPRESSUREONTHEPARTOFDEVELOPEDNATIONSFORREVALUATIONINADDRESSINGTHEISSUEOFVALUATION,THISPAPERDEVELOPSANEWPURCHASINGPOWERPARITYPPPI
2、NDEXOFCHINASEXCHANGERATEANDFINDSTHATTHEWHILEUNDERVALUED,THEUNDERVALUATIONISNEITHERUNUSUALNORBADPOLICYMOREOVER,CHINASOVERALLEXTERNALTRADEBALANCEDOESNOTSEEMTOBETHATFAROUTOFEQUILIBRIUMCHINASDESIRETOJOINTHEG7CLUBISLIKELYTORESULTINABANDONINGITSPEG,HOWEVER,DESPITETHEINCREASEDRISKTOITSECONOMICDEVELOPMENTTH
3、EVALUATIONOFTHECHINESERENMINBIRMBHASDRAWNLOTSOFATTENTIONLATELYTHEIMF,THEUSGOVERNMENT,ANDTHEG7FINANCEMINISTERSAREURGINGCHINATOREVALUEITSCURRENCY,WHICHISCURRENTLYPEGGEDAT828TOTHEDOLLARTHEARGUMENTSFORCHINATOAPPRECIATEITSCURRENCYROUGHLYFOLLOWTHESELINESCHINASCURRENCYISGROSSLYUNDERVALUEDTHEUNDERVALUEDRMBI
4、SATTRACTINGAFLOODOFHOTMONEYINTOCHINA,COMPLICATINGTHEAUTHORITIESEFFORTSTOENGINEERASOFTLANDINGFORANOVERHEATEDECONOMYANDTHERMBSUNDERVALUATIONANDITSPEGTOTHEDOLLARAREPREVENTINGOTHERASIANCOUNTRIESFROMALLOWINGCURRENCIESTORISEAGAINSTTHEDOLLAR,SINCEAPPRECIATIONWOULDDAMAGECOMPETIVENESSRELATIVETOCHINATHISLASTP
5、OINTISOFPARTICULARCONCERNBECAUSE,ITISARGUED,USEXTERNALIMBALANCESCANNOTBEADDRESSEDINTHEFACEOFCHINASANDOTHERASIANNATIONSHISTORICALLYUNPRECEDENTEDACCUMULATIONSOFUSDOLLARRESERVESINRECENTYEARSTHEREHAVEBEENMANYSTUDIESONTHERMBSVALUATIONWITHINCONCLUSIVE,CONTRADICTORYRESULTSSEE,EG,WANG,2004TOADDRESSTHATDIFFI
6、CULTVALUATIONQUESTION,THISPAPERDEVELOPSANEWABSOLUTEPPPINDEXTHATMEASURESCHINASPPPAGAINSTTHEUNITEDSTATESANDOTHERCOUNTRIESTHENEWINDEXSHOWSTHERMBTOBESUBSTANTIALLYUNDERVALUEDINTHECONTEXTOF“CONVENTIONALWISDOM”HOWEVER,THEUNDERVALUATIONISNOTUNUSUAL,GIVENCHINASLEVELOFECONOMICDEVELOPMENTANDCONVENTIONALWISDOMD
7、OESNOTAPPLYTOCHINA,BECAUSEBYANYMEASUREITISANUNDEVELOPEDNATIONFORWHICHACURRENCYPEGISUSEFULTOMAINTAINDOMESTICECONOMICANDPOLITICALSTABILITYPRASADETAL,2003INTERMSOFMULTILATERALEXTERNALBALANCES,WEFINDITHARDTOARGUETHATCHINASCURRENCYISCONTRIBUTINGMUCHTOITSTRADEANDBALANCEOFPAYMENTSURPLUSES,ESPECIALLYIFONETA
8、KESTHE1997PERSPECTIVEWHENTHERMBWASUNDERTREMENDOUSDEPRECIATIONPRESSUREINDEED,THEREISCLEAREVIDENCETHATIFCHINASTRADEBALANCEWASEVENLYDISTRIBUTEDAMONGITSTRADINGPARTNERS,THEREWOULDBEHARDLYANYPRESSUREFORCHINATOAPPRECIATEITSCURRENCYTHUS,THEPRESSUREISPOLITICALANDSTRUCTURALINNATURE,ORIGINATINGFROMTHELARGEANDG
9、ROWINGMULTILATERALTRADEIMBALANCEOFTHEUNITEDSTATESUNFORTUNATELY,ITISMUCHEASIERTOBLAMECHINATHANTOATTACKTHEUNDERLYINGSTRUCTURALCAUSESOFTHEUSTRADEDEFICITWECONCLUDETHATTHEPOLITICALPRESSUREONCHINATOABANDONTHERMBSPEGTOTHEDOLLARISLIKELYTOPERSIST,ANDASTHEMOSTIMPORTANTGROWTHMARKETINTHEWORLDTODAYCHINAISMORELIK
10、ELYTOMOVESOONERRATHERTHANLATERTODEMONSTRATETHAT,INSPITEOFTHERISKSTOITSFRAGILEFINANCIALSYSTEM,ITWILLSHAREITSGLOBALRESPONSIBILITIESASITEVENTUALLYJOINSTHEG7THEPAPERWRAPSUPBYPLACINGTHEEXCHANGEISSUEINTHEBROADERCONTEXTANDDISCUSSINGTHELONGERTERMPROSPECTSOFTHERMBISTHERMBUNDERVALUEDTHERMBISUNDERVALUEDINTHECO
11、NVENTIONALSENSETHATTHEREISTOOMUCHDEMANDFORITRELATIVETOTHESUPPLYFUNDAMENTALLY,DEMANDFORFOREIGNCURRENCYCOMESFROMTHREESOURCESTOBUYGOODSORSERVICES,TOINVESTINPHYSICALORFINANCIALASSETS,ANDTOSPECULATEONMOVESOFTHEEXCHANGERATEITSELFWITHACLOSEDCAPITALACCOUNT,CHINASCURRENCYISLARGELY,BUTNOTENTIRELY,IMMUNEFROMCU
12、RRENCYSPECULATORSANDSHORTTERMPORTFOLIOINVESTORSRECENTSTUDIESATTHECHINANATIONALECONOMICRESEARCHINSTITUTE2003INDICATETHATMUCHOFTHESOCALLED“HOTMONEY”INFLOWSARENOTARESULTOFFOREIGNHEDGEFUNDACTIVITIESRATHER,THEYAREACHANGEINBORROWINGANDDEPOSITBEHAVIORSOFDOMESTICFIRMSANDINDIVIDUALS,TAKINGADVANTAGEOFTHELOOPH
13、OLESINTHECURRENTFOREIGNEXCHANGEREGULATIONSTHUS,WECANFOCUSOURATTENTIONONTHETRADEANDLONGTERMINVESTMENTFLOWSINCHINAANDLOOKATTHESTANDARDMEASURES,SUCHASPURCHASINGPOWERPARITYPPP,TRADEBALANCE,CURRENTACCOUNTBALANCE,BALANCEOFPAYMENTS,ANDFOREIGNRESERVESPPPISANANCIENTECONOMICCONCEPT,DATINGBACKATLEASTTODAVIDHUM
14、E1752,WHICHHASBEENEXPERIENCINGSOMETHINGOFAREVIVALLATELYTHEECONOMISTCURRENTDEFINESPPPAS“THEEXCHANGERATETHATEQUATESTHEPRICEOFABASKETOFIDENTICALTRADEDGOODSANDSERVICESINTWOCOUNTRIES”THETHEORYISTHATPPPEXCHANGERATESREPRESENTTHEEQUILIBRIUMLEVELSAMONGTHENATIONSANDTHATANYDEPARTUREFROMTHESELEVELSCAUSESPOTENTI
15、ALLYSIGNIFICANTANDDISTORTINGTRADEIMBALANCESTHEREAREDIFFERENTMEASURESOFPPPASTRONGVERSIONOR“ABSOLUTE”VERSIONTHATEMPHASIZESTHEABSOLUTEEQUALITYOFPRICESSOMETIMESCALLED“THELAWOFONEPRICE”ANDA“RELATIVE”VERSIONTHATEMPHASIZESTHEONGOINGMOVEMENTOVERTIMETOWARDSTHATEQUALITYSHOULDCHINABOWTOTHEPRESSUREASIDEFROMPOLI
16、TICALCONSIDERATIONS,WHICHWEWILLDISCUSSLATER,THEQUESTIONOFWHETHERCHINASHOULDMOVENOWISACOMPLEXONE,RELATINGTOSEVERALCONSIDERATIONSFIRST,MARKETEXPECTATIONSOFTHERMBSMOVEHAVEALREADYCAUSEDASIGNIFICANTREVERSALOFCAPITALFLIGHTANDINCREASEDUPWARDSPECULATIVEPRESSURESECOND,CYCLICALGLOBALMACROECONOMICDEVELOPMENTSA
17、RELIKELYTOREDUCEUPWARDPRESSUREONTHERMBTHIRD,CHINAISINTHEMIDSTOFCRITICALSTRUCTURALREFORMS,ESPECIALLYINTHEFINANCIALSECTOR,THATREQUIREFOCUSEDATTENTIONFOURTH,ITISINCREASINGLYCLEARTHATTHECURRENTECONOMICOVERHEATINGISSECTORALINNATURE,WHICHISINSHARPCONTRASTWITHTHE19934EPISODETHESECONSIDERATIONSSUGGESTTHATIT
18、ISNOTINCHINASINTERESTTOREVALUETHECURRENCYATTHISTIMELETSTAKEACLOSERLOOKATEACHOFTHESEISSUESREPEGGINGTHERMBREPEGGINGTHERMBATAVALUE,SAY,1520PERCENTHIGHERAGAINSTTHEUSDOLLARWOULDINSTANTLYVINDICATETHECURRENCYSPECULATORS,ALTHOUGHTHEYAREMOSTLYDOMESTICPLAYERSOVERTHELASTCOUPLEOFYEARS,THENETERRORSANDOMISSIONSCA
19、TEGORYINCHINASBALANCEOFPAYMENTHASSHOWNALARGESWINGFROMPERSISTENTDEFICITSTOASURPLUSOF75BILLIONIN2003THENETERRORSANDEMISSIONSCATEGORYISBELIEVEDTOCAPTUREILLEGALCAPITALMOVEMENTSDURINGMUCHOFMIDTOLATE90S,CHINASCAPITALFLIGHT,ASAPERCENTAGEOFGDP,WASTHESECONDWORSTINTHEWORLDONLYRUSSIAWASWORSEINFACT,ITWASWORSETH
20、ANMEXICOIN1994ANDSOUTHKOREAIN1997DURINGTHEHEIGHTOFTHEIRCURRENCYCRISESRECENTLY,HOWEVER,SOMEOFTHISCAPITALISFINDINGITSWAYBACK,ASEXPECTATIONSOFRMBAPPRECIATIONHAVERAISEDTHEREISALSOSTRONGINDICATIONTHATBUSINESSESANDINDIVIDUALSAREINVOLVEDINCURRENCYSPECULATION,WHICHHASCONTRIBUTEDTOTHEOVERHEATINGOFREALESTATEI
21、NVESTMENTREVALUINGNOWWILLENCOURAGEFUTURESPECULATION,WHICHCOULDEXACERBATETHEBALANCEOFPAYMENTSPRESSUREMORECHINESEINTERESTRATEFLEXIBILITYASTHEFEDCONTINUESTOBOOSTUSINTERESTRATES,CHINESEAUTHORITIESHAVEMOREFLEXIBILITYTORAISEDOMESTICINTERESTRATESWITHOUTWORRYINGABOUTWIDENINGTHEINTERESTRATEGAPANDENCOURAGINGF
22、URTHERHOTMONEYINFLOWSWITHGLOBALECONOMICGROWTHONLYMODERATINGABITLATELY,DEMANDFORENERGYANDCOMMODITIESREMAINSSTRONG,WHICHISLIKELYTOKEEPOILANDCOMMODITYPRICESHIGHANDTOINCREASETHEIMPORTBILLFORCHINAANDOTHERASIANCOUNTRIESYETANOTHERSOURCEOFREDUCEDPRESSUREONTHERMBINDEED,ASLONGASOILDEMANDREMAINSFIRMANDGEOPOLIT
23、ICALRISKSPERSIST,THENEGATIVEIMPACTONASIASOILIMPORTINGCOUNTRIESANDCONCOMITANT,MARKETDRIVENDOWNWARDPRESSUREONITSCURRENCIESWILLNOTDISSIPATECHINASSHAKYFUNDAMENTALSPERHAPSMOSTIMPORTANT,THESHARPCYCLICALUPSWINGSINCETHEENDOFTHESARSCRISISISMASKINGCHINASSHAKYFUNDAMENTALSTOTHEOUTSIDEWORLDDESPITEMODERNFACTORIES
24、,SPANKINGNEWAIRPORTS,HIGHWAYS,ANDSHOPPINGMALLS,CHINASSOCIALANDFINANCIALINSTITUTIONSAREPERHAPSCOMPARABLETOTHOSEOFTHEUSINTHELATE19THCENTURYPERIODOFTHE“ROBBERBARONS”A2003POLLCONDUCTEDBYPEKINGUNIVERSITYOFABOUT100CHINAEXPERTSSHOWSTHATONETHIRDOFTHEMBELIEVETHEREWILLBEAMAJORCRISISINCHINABEFORE2010WHATISTHEM
25、OSTLIKELYSOURCEOFCRISISTHEMOSTFREQUENTLYMENTIONEDARESOCIAL21PERCENT,FINANCIAL19PERCENT,ECONOMIC12PERCENT,ANDEMPLOYMENT10PERCENTRAPIDGROWTHOVERTHELASTTWODECADESHASINCREASEDINCOMEANDSOCIALINEQUALITY,ENVIRONMENTALDEGRADATION,ANDREGIONALDISPARITYTHEINCOMPLETETRANSITIONFROMACENTRALLYPLANNEDECONOMYTOAMARK
26、ETECONOMYUNDERAUTHORITARIANRULEHASENRICHEDTHEELITEANDECONOMICOPPORTUNISTSATTHECOSTOFGENERATINGALARGEUNDERCLASSANDERODINGPUBLICWEALTHASSOMECHINESEECONOMISTSPOINTOUT,MANYCHINESELOCALGOVERNMENTSAREEFFECTIVELYBROKEANDEVENTUALLYWILLNEEDACENTRALGOVERNMENTBAILOUTREMINISCENTOFTHEAGEOFTHEUS“ROBBERBARONS,”THE
27、WIDESPREAD,SYSTEMATICCORRUPTIONANDABUSEOFPOWERISESTIMATEDTOCOSTASMUCHAS14PERCENTOFCHINASGDPPERYEARTHEFINANCIALSYSTEMWHICHINCLUDESTHEBANKING,SECURITIES,ANDINSURANCESECTORSNEEDSANURGENTOVERHAULTOIMPROVEEFFICIENCYANDBEREADYFORFOREIGNCOMPETITIONUNDERCHINASWTOCOMMITMENTJOBCREATIONREMAINSADAUNTINGCHALLENG
28、EGIVENCONTINUEDEFFORTSATTRANSFORMINGTHESTATEOWNEDENTERPRISESANDIMPROVINGPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHTHENTHEREARELONGTERMISSUES,SUCHASTHEAGINGPOPULATIONUNDERFUNDEDPENSIONANDSOCIALSECURITYSYSTEMSANDEDUCATION,HEALTHCARE,ANDINFRASTRUCTUREISSUESASONEPROMINENTECONOMISTINBEIJINGOBSERVEDRECENTLY,“OTHERTHANTHECENTRALB
29、ANK,FEWOTHERHIGHLEVELOFFICIALSWANTTOTALKABOUTTHEEXCHANGERATEISSUETHEREAREFARMOREURGENTTHINGSTOADDRESS”TOATTACKTHEPROBLEMSONMULTIPLEFRONTS,THETOPLEADERSCLEARLYNEEDTOENSURESTABILITYANDFOCUSONTHEMOSTURGENTTASKSOFSTRENGTHENINGTHEPARTYSEFFECTIVENESSANDEFFICIENCYONONEHAND,ANDREFORMINGTHEDOMESTICFINANCIALS
30、ECTORONTHEOTHERWEAKLINKBETWEENREVALUATIONANDINTERNALADJUSTMENTFINALLY,BASEDONINTERNATIONALEVIDENCEROGOFF,2004ANDCHINASOWNEXPERIENCE,ITISNOTATALLCLEARTHATAREVALUEDRMBWILLFACILITATEINTERNALREFORMEFFORTSREVALUATIONOFTHERMBMAYNOTHELPTHATMUCHINTERMSOFCYCLICALMACROECONOMICADJUSTMENTDESPITESIGNIFICANTINCRE
31、ASESINTHEHEADLINEINFLATION,COREINFLATIONREMAINSLOWTHISISASHARPDEPARTUREFROMCHINASHISTORICALOVERHEATINGPERIODSANDSUGGESTSTHATTHEREISNOSYSTEMATICPRICEPUSHFROMAGGREGATEDEMAND,ASWASTHECASEIN19934CHU,2003AWHATISUNSUSTAINABLEISFIXEDINVESTMENTGROWTHINCERTAINAREASEVENWHILECONSUMPTIONANDINVESTMENTINOTHERAREA
32、SSTILLNEEDTOBEENCOURAGEDCHINASGROSSINVESTMENTASASHAREOFGDPISRUNNINGATABOVE40PERCENT,WHICHISFARBEYONDTHE2030PERCENTFORMOSTDEVELOPINGMARKETSANDHIGHERTHANJAPANSANDSOUTHKOREASLEVELSATACOMPARABLESTAGEOFDEVELOPMENTGRANTED,THECENTRALGOVERNMENTISUSINGVERYBLUNTINSTRUMENTSSUCHASCREDITRATIONINGANDADMINISTRATIV
33、EORDERSTOADDRESSTHESECTORALIMBALANCESBUTTHISDOESNOTSUGGESTTHATCHANGINGTHEEXCHANGERATERIGHTNOWWOULDBEABETTERALTERNATIVEONTHECONTRARY,ANABRUPTCHANGEINTHEFOREIGNEXCHANGEREGIMEWOULDINCREASEUNCERTAINTYANDJEOPARDIZETHEABILITYTOFINETUNEMACROPOLICIESINDEED,ASROGOFFSUGGESTS,ABANDONINGTHEPEGTOTHEDOLLARCOULDBE
34、SEENASABANDONINGCHINASCOMMITMENTTOSTABLEANDSUSTAINABLEMACROECONOMICGROWTHTHEISSUEISMOSTLYPOLITICALTHEGROWINGUSEXTERNALDEFICITSARECLEARLYUNSUSTAINABLEANDMUSTBEADDRESSEDITHASBEENARGUEDTHATTHELONGERTHEUNITEDSTATESWAITS,THEHIGHERTHEPOTENTIALSHOCKORDAMAGETHEREWILLBEMANN,2004BCA,2004OBSTFELDANDROGOFF,2004
35、BUTISREVALUINGTHERMBPARTOFTHESOLUTIONTOTHISPROBLEMACLOSELOOKATTHESITUATIONSUGGESTSTHATATBESTITMAYREDUCETHEPROBLEMONLYMARGINALLYINTHENEARTERM,WHILETHELONGERTERMIMPACTSAREUNCLEARSINCEFOREIGNEXCHANGEPOLICYCHANGESCANBRINGAHOSTOFUNINTENDEDCONSEQUENCESHOWEVER,POLITICALREALITYGETSINTHEWAYPOLITICIANSNEEDTOS
36、HOWVOTERSANDPOWERFULLOBBYINGGROUPSTHATTHEYAREDOINGSOMETHINGEXCHANGERATESAREALOWHANGINGFRUITFORTHEM,EVENTHOUGHTHEYAREASMALLFRUITANDFROMTHECHINESEPERSPECTIVEANUNRIPEONETHEREALLYEFFECTIVEMEASURES,SUCHASADDRESSINGDOMESTICDEMANDIMBALANCESANDPROMOTINGUSGOODSANDSERVICESEXPORTS,AREUNFORTUNATELYPOLITICALNONS
37、TARTERSINTHEUNITEDSTATESTHEPERCEPTIONTHATUNDERVALUATIONOFTHERMBISTHECAUSEOFUSTRADEDEFICITSHASALSOMEANTTHATCHINASEFFORTSINADJUSTINGEXPORTCOMPETITIVENESSTHROUGHNONFOREIGNEXCHANGEMEASURESHAVERECEIVEDLITTLEATTENTIONINTHEPOLITICALDEBATELOOKINGTOTHEFUTURETHECENTRALPOINTOFTHISPAPERISTHATWHILETHERMBISCLEARL
38、YUNDERVALUEDESPECIALLYBYPPPMEASURES,THEREREALLYHASBEENNOFUNDAMENTALCHANGEINTHEVALUATIONTHATWARRANTSINTENSIVEMARKETPRESSUREFORITTOHAVEDEPRECIATEDIN19978ANDTOAPPRECIATENOWLOOKINGATTHEBROADPICTURE,THERELATIONSHIPBETWEENTHERMBSPEGTOTHEDOLLARANDCHINASEXTERNALACCOUNTSURPLUSESANDRISINGFOREIGNRESERVESISNOTA
39、SCLEARASOFTENARGUEDTHECONTRIBUTIONOFTHERMBSUNDERVALUATIONTOEXTERNALIMBALANCESINBOTHTHEUNITEDSTATESANDCHINAISINSIGNIFICANTINCOMPARISONWITHOTHERSTRUCTURALFACTORS,SUCHASDOMESTICDEMANDIMBALANCESFORG3ANDIMPROVINGTHEINVESTMENTENVIRONMENTFORFOREIGNDIRECTINVESTMENTFDIANDEXPORTCOMPETITIVENESSINCHINARELATIVET
40、OOTHERCOUNTRIESTHEREAREFARBETTERWAYSTOADDRESSTHEIMBALANCESWITHLITTLEDISTRACTIONFORCHINASCHALLENGINGDOMESTICREFORMAGENDAINPARTICULAR,LABORCOSTSINCHINAARERISINGCHINASPOLITICALCAPITALISBESTINVESTEDINOTHERAREASOFSTRUCTURALREFORMUNFORTUNATELY,GIVENITSMUCHLARGERINFLUENCEONTHEGLOBALECONOMY,CHINAPROBABLYCAN
41、NOTSAY“NO”THISTIMETOEXTERNALPOLITICALPRESSUREANDMAYMOVESOONERTHANITWOULDLIKEIFHISTORYPROVESTHATCHINADEPEGGEDBEFOREITISCAPABLEOFHANDLINGTHESHOCK,THELESSONWOULDBETHATTHEG7FAILEDTORECOGNIZETHATASTABLE,ORDERLYPROGRESSINGCHINAISINTHEBESTINTERESTOFALLFORTHELONGERTERM,FEWDOUBTTHATCHINAMUSTADOPTAMOREFLEXIBL
42、EEXCHANGERATEREGIMEINTHISPOSTBRETONWOODSENVIRONMENTAFLEXIBLERMBWILLALLOWCHINATOCONDUCTINDEPENDENTMONETARYPOLICYWITHANOPENCAPITALACCOUNTANDMINIMIZETHEIMPACTOFFLUCTUATIONSOFMAJORCURRENCIES,ESPECIALLYTHEUSDOLLARSGYRATIONSAGAINSTTHEEUROANDTHEYENCHINASOUTWARDINVESTMENTNEEDSAREGROWINGRAPIDLYANDWOULDBENEFI
43、TFROMAFLEXIBLERMBBUTFIRST,CHINANEEDSTOCLEANUPTHEBANKINGSYSTEM,ADJUSTCAPITALACCOUNTS,ANDDEVELOPHEALTHYANDROBUSTDOMESTICFINANCIALMARKETSWECANEXPECTTHATAFLEXIBLEEXCHANGERATEWILLIMPROVECHINASOVERALLFINANCIALSYSTEMCHINAHASSOFARLEARNEDVALUABLELESSONSOFTHEPERILSOFOPENINGTHEMARKETTOOSOONANDALLOWINGACURRENCY
44、TOAPPRECIATETOOFASTFROMTHEEXPERIENCEOFJAPANANDSOUTHEASTASIAGOINGFORWARD,ITNEEDSTOSTUDYTHEPOSITIVELESSONSOFLIBERALIZINGTHEEXCHANGERATESTHESUCCESSFULCASESSTUDIESOFPOLANDFROMTHEDOLLARPEGIN1990TOFREEFLOATIN2000ANDCHILEFROMFIXEDRATEIN1981TOCOMPLETEFLOATIN1999CLEARLYSHOWTHATLIBERALIZATIONCANBEACCOMPLISHED
45、WITHOUTAMAJORCRISISBUTITREQUIRESMANYGRADUAL,CAUTIOUSSTEPSTOREACHTHEFINALDESTINATION外文翻译人民币在中国其价值、其可调节汇率和其未来发展贸易不平衡对美国的影响大于对中国的影响中国人民币的估值最近已引起很多关注，同时在人民币升值方面承受着大量来自发达国家的压力。在解决估值问题中，本文新引用的购买力平价（PPP）包含了中国的汇率指数，并认为人民币被低估，既不是不正常的低估，也不是糟糕的政策。此外，中国的整体外贸的平衡，似乎远远低于平衡。中国加入七国集团俱乐部的希望很可能导致放弃联系汇率，尽管增加的风险能促进经济的发展
46、。最近，我国人民币的估值已经引起了广泛的关注。就连国际货币基金组织、美国政府和金融七国的负责人都以人民币来估计他们的通货价值，人民币对美元的汇率为828人民币。对于我国人民币汇率升值的讨论大约有下列几点中国人民币被普遍的低估；被低估的人民币正在吸引大量的热通货进入中国，复杂的货币当局努力致力于过热的软着陆经济。并且人民币被低估和它对美元的汇率是用于防止允许对美元的通货升值的其他亚洲国家的，因为人民币升值将破坏其他国家与中国的竞争关系。竞争理念的最重要核心是因为它被过度的讨论。近年来，美国外部失衡触及中国和其他亚洲国家的历史上前所未有的美元储备危机。出现了许多关于人民币不确定估值的研究和自相矛盾
47、的结果。为了解决这一困难的估价问题，本文开发了一个对美国和其他国家来说是新的绝对购买力平价指数中国购买力平价的措施。新指数显示了“传统智慧”下，人民币被大幅低估的具体情况。然而，人民币被低估是不同寻常的，鉴于中国的经济发展水平，传统智慧并不适用于中国，因为任何标准来衡量它都不是一个发达的国家，没有发达国家有较稳定的货币汇率以维持国内经济和政治稳定（普拉萨德等，2003）。对多边外部平衡方面而言，我们觉得很难说中国的货币对其贸易和国际收支盈余有很大的促进作用，尤其是如果从1997年的角度来看，人民币承受巨大的贬值压力。事实上，有明确的证据表明，如果中国的贸易平衡，均匀地分布在其贸易伙伴，将几乎没
48、有任何中国的货币升值的压力。因此，从美国发起的范围越来越大，次数越来越多的多边贸易不平衡来看，压力是政治和结构性的。不幸的是，它是非常容易的，而不是指责中国攻击美国贸易赤字的结构性根源。是对中国政府施加政治压力，放弃人民币只钉住美元，并作为世界上最重要的增长市场上，迟早中国更容易证明，尽管中国有其脆弱的金融风险体系，但它最终加入了七国集团并将分担其全球责任。本文包含更广范围内的交流问题，并讨论了人民币的长期前景。是人民币被低估人民币在传统意义上被低估，从根本上讲有太多的需求相对于供应。从根本上来说，对外币的需求来自三个方面购买商品或服务，投资于实物或金融资产，要猜测汇率本身的变化。随着封闭的、
49、独立的资本账户的产生，中国的通货变得数量较大而重要，但对于货币投机者和短期投资者的投资组合情况来看，这一事实也不完全适用。在中国国民经济研究所（2003）最近的科学研究表明，所谓的“热钱”流入的多少并不是国外对冲基金活动的结果。相反，他们是利用在当前外汇汇率管制规定存在漏洞这一优势，改变当地企业和个人的借款和存款行为。因此，我们可以着眼于对中国的贸易和投资流动的长期关注，并期待产生标准的措施，例如购买力平价（PPP）、贸易收支平衡、经常帐差额、国际收支和外汇储备。购买力平价学说是一个古老的经济概念，至少可以追溯到大卫休谟（1752），已经经历了至少一次复兴。经济学家（目前）将购买力平价学说定义为“汇率，相当于在两个国家的商品交易和服务中的一篮子价格相同的购买力平价的东西。”该理论认为，购买力平价的汇率代表国家之间的均衡水平，而从这些层面出发的任何潜在的重大原因和扭曲贸易存在不平衡。PPP有许多不同的购买力平价措施一个强大的版本或“绝对”的版本，强调了价格的绝对平等（有时称为“单一价格法则”）和“相对”的版本，强调随着时间的推移，趋于平等运动。中国会屈服于这些压力吗除了政治上的考虑，我们将在后面讨论，人民币是否流动现在变成一个复杂的问题，涉及到几个因素。首先，人民币的移动市场预期已经造成了重大逆转资本
