1、本科毕业论文（设计）外文翻译题目基于排污权交易规则的环境会计问题研究专业会计学外文题目THREETYPESOFIMPACTFROMTHEEUROPEANEMISSIONDIRECTCOST,INDIRECTCOSTANDUNCERTAINTY外文出处ECONOMICSANDMANAGEMENTOFCLIMATECHANGE2008PARTIIP111123外文作者VOLKERHOFFMANN；THOMASTRAUTMANN原文THREETYPESOFIMPACTFROMTHEEUROPEANEMISSIONTRADINGSCHEMEDIRECTCOST,INDIRECTCOSTANDUNCER
2、TAINTYABSTRACTTHEAUTHORSIDENTIFYTHREETYPESOFIMPACTFROMTHEEUROPEANEMISSIONTRADINGSCHEMEONTHEAFFECTEDCOMPANIESDIRECTIMPACT,INDIRECTIMPACT,ANDUNCERTAINTYWHILEDIRECTIMPACTREFERSTOTHECOSTOFBUYINGALLOWANCES,INDIRECTIMPACTREFERSTOTHEINCREASEDINPUTFACTORCOSTASSUPPLIERSPRICEINTHEIREMISSIONCOSTUNCERTAINTYREFE
3、RSTOTHELIMITEDPLANNINGRELIABILITYASMANYDETAILSOFTHEREGULATIONARESTILLUNDERNEGOTIATIONORONLYLASTFORAFEWYEARSBASEDONAEUROPEWIDESURVEY,THEAUTHORSEMPIRICALLYSHOWTHERELEVANCEANDINDUSTRYDEPENDENCEOFTHESETYPESOFIMPACTTOACOMPANYSSTRATEGICDECISIONSKEYWORDSEMISSIONTRADING,CORPORATESTRATEGY,UNCERTAINTY1INTRODU
4、CTIONINJANUARY2005THEEUROPEANUNIONGREENHOUSEGASEMISSIONTRADINGSCHEMEEUETSCOMMENCEDOPERATIONWHILETHEACTUALTRADINGOFEMISSIONALLOWANCESSEEMSTOBEUPANDRUNNING,THEQUESTIONREMAINSWHETHERTHEEUETSWILLINDUCETECHNOLOGICALINNOVATIONINORDERTOREACHTHEKYOTOTARGETSGAGELMANNANDFRONDEL2005HOFFMANNANDTRAUTMANN2006SCHL
5、EICHANDBETZ2005THEREAPPEARSTOBEAGREEMENTTHATANINCENTIVEBASEDAPPROACHINENVIRONMENTALPOLICYHASAHIGHERPROBABILITYOFINDUCINGCOSTEFFECTIVETECHNOLOGYINNOVATIONANDDIFFUSIONTHANCOMMANDANDCONTROLAPPROACHESJAFFEETAL2004MAJUMDARANDMARCUS2001HOWEVER,FORCOMPANIESRELIABILITYINTHEIRPLANNINGREMAINSCRUCIAL,ASINVESTM
6、ENTDECISIONSININDUSTRIESSUCHASTHEPOWERANDTHESTEELINDUSTRYARECURRENTLYCOMMITTINGACOMPANYFORTHENEXT2030YEARSCONSEQUENTLY,UNCERTAINTIESRESULTINGFROMIMPLEMENTATIONOFTHEEUETSMAYBEIMPORTANTDETERMINANTSFORACOMPANYSTECHNOLOGICALREACTIONANDINFLUENCEWHETHERPROACTIVEORREACTIVESTRATEGICDECISIONSARETAKENARAGNCOR
7、REA1998ARAGNCORREAANDSHARMA2003WHENINVESTIGATINGCOMPANIESDECISIONSREGARDINGTHEIRSTRATEGICRESPONSETOTHEEUETS,WEPROPOSETHATTHEREARETHREETYPESOFIMPACTFROMTHEEUETSTHATNEEDTOBETAKENINTOACCOUNTINORDERTOUNDERSTANDTHEINCREMENTALEFFECTOFTHEEUETSTHEFIRSTTYPEISTHEIMPACTFROMDIRECTCOSTRESULTINGFROMACOMPANYSNEEDT
8、OBUYALLOWANCESTHECOSTFORCOVERINGITSDIRECTCARBONEMISSIONSINFLUENCESFUTUREINVESTMENTDECISIONSANDTECHNOLOGYCHOICESMOSTCOMPANIESALREADYREFLECTTHEALLOWANCECOSTINBOTHTHEIRDAILYOPERATIONSANDTHEEVALUATIONOFFUTUREINVESTMENTDECISIONSPWC2005SECOND,THERECANBEANIMPACTFROMINDIRECTCOSTONSTRATEGICDECISIONSTHISEFFEC
9、TRESULTSIFADIRECTLYIMPACTEDCOMPANYHASTHEABILITYTOINTEGRATEITSDIRECTCARBONCOSTINTOITSPRODUCTPRICESTHECOMPANYGENERATESANINDIRECTCOSTEFFECTONOTHERCOMPANIESWITHPOSITIONSINTHEVALUECHAINAFTERTHEEMITTERTHUSTHEIMPACTOFINDIRECTCOSTREFLECTSTHEINDIRECTEMISSIONSTHATACOMPANYGENERATESWITHITSDEMANDFORCO2INTENSEPRO
10、DUCTSFURTHERUPTHEVALUECHAINTHIRD,WEARGUETHATTHEIMPACTFROMUNCERTAINTYSURROUNDINGTHEIMPLEMENTATIONOFTHEEUETSISANIMPORTANTFACTORTHATNEEDSTOBECONSIDEREDWHENSTUDYINGCOMPANIESSTRATEGICDECISIONSCOMPAREHOFFMANNANDTRAUTMANN2006INDEEDTHEREISLITTLEUNDERSTANDINGOFTHERELEVANCEOFUNCERTAINTYINTHECONTEXTOFIMPLEMENT
11、INGPOLICYINSTRUMENTSMARCUS1981NOTES“ITISDIFFICULTTOKNOWWHETHERPOLICYUNCERTAINTYISSIMPLYARATIONALIZATIONFORNOTINNOVATINGORWHETHERTHEREISACAUSEANDEFFECTRELATIONSHIPBETWEENPOLICYUNCERTAINTYANDTECHNOLOGICALCHANGE“THEORETICALANDEMPIRICALRESEARCHPRESENTSAMIXEDPICTUREWHILEFINDINGSFROMPAULSSONANDMALMBORG200
12、4INDICATETHATINTHECONTEXTOFTHEEUETSPOLICYUNCERTAINTYRESULTSINA“WAITANDSEE“STRATEGY,SOMEAUTHORSARGUETHATENVIRONMENTALUNCERTAINTYINGENERALINCREASESTHELIKELIHOODTHATAFIRMWILLDEVELOPAPROACTIVEENVIRONMENTALSTRATEGYARAGNCORREAANDSHARMA2003；ETTLIE1983NOTETHATTHETHIRDTYPEOFIMPACT,UNCERTAINTY,CANNOTBEVIEWEDI
13、SOLATEDFROMTHEIMPACTFROMDIRECTANDINDIRECTCOSTUNCERTAINTYCANCAUSESTRATEGICREACTIONSINDEPENDENTOFCOSTEFFECTSARAGNCORREAANDSHARMA2003,BUTMAYALSOMODERATETHESTRATEGICRESPONSETOCOSTEFFECTSMARCUSANDKAUFMAN1986HOFFMANNANDTRAUTMANN2006SHOWEDACORRELATIONBETWEENTHEREPORTEDIMPACTOFTHEEUETSONINVESTMENTDECISIONSA
14、NDTHELEVELOFPERCEIVEDUNCERTAINTY,INDICATINGINTERDEPENDENCEBETWEENTHESETYPESOFIMPACTSOMEAUTHORSHAVEARGUEDTHATTHEROLEOFUNCERTAINTYCANONLYBEUNDERSTOODWHENTAKINGACOMPANYSINDUSTRYSPECIFICCONTEXTINTOACCOUNTHREBINIAKANDSNOW1980WEARGUETHATTHEINDUSTRYSPECIFICCONTEXTISAPARTICULARLYIMPORTANTPARAMETERASITREFLEC
15、TSTHERELATIVEIMPORTANCEOFDIRECTORINDIRECTEMISSIONSANDTHELOCALORGLOBALCHARACTEROFCOMPETITIONINTHEFOLLOWINGSECTIONSWEWILLANALYZETHETHREETYPESOFIMPACT,DIRECTCOST,INDIRECTCOST,ANDUNCERTAINTYINMOREDETAILANDSUBSEQUENTLYPRESENTEMPIRICALRESULTSTHATSUPPORTBOTHTHEPRESENCEOFTHESETHREETYPESOFIMPACTINTHECASEOFTH
16、EEUETSANDTHEINDUSTRYDEPENDENCEOFTHESEEFFECTS2THREETYPESOFREGULATORYIMPACTWEDEFINEIMPACTASANINFLUENCEONACOMPANYSDECISIONMAKINGREGARDINGITSTECHNOLOGYSTRATEGYTHEREISAHIGHERIMPACTIFTHEEUETSSHOWSAHIGHERINFLUENCEONACOMPANYSTECHNOLOGYSTRATEGYTHETERMINFLUENCEREFERSTOTHEINCREMENTALEFFECTFROMTHEEUETSTHUSWESPE
17、CIFICALLYANALYZETHEEFFECTTHATWOULDNOTBETHEREWITHOUTTHEEUETSTECHNOLOGYSTRATEGYSETSTHEFOCUSONINVESTMENTDECISIONSRATHERTHANONDECISIONSREGARDINGTHETRADINGOFACTUALALLOWANCESTYPEOFIMPACTREFERSTOTHECAUSALPATHTHROUGHWHICHTHEEUETSHASANIMPACTTHECAUSALPATHCANBEDIRECTVIAEMISSIONALLOWANCEPRICINGDIRECTCOST,INDIRE
18、CTVIAPASSEDTHROUGHALLOWANCECOSTINDIRECTCOST,ORVIAUNCERTAINTYFIGURESHOWSALLTHREETYPESOFIMPACTFORTHEANALYSISOFINDIRECTCOSTWEFOCUSONTHEEFFECTSOFELECTRICITYPRICESASTHISISOFPARTICULARIMPORTANCEINTHECOSTSTRUCTUREOFPOWERINTENSIVEINDUSTRIESSUCHASSTEEL,PULPANDPAPER,ANDCEMENTALREADYINJANUARY2004THEASSOCIATION
19、SOFPOWERINTENSIVEINDUSTRIESPOINTEDATPOSSIBLEWINDFALLPROFITSINTHEPOWERINDUSTRYFROMANINCREASEDELECTRICITYPRICEANDITSIMPACTONTHECOMPETITIVENESSOFPOWERINTENSIVEINDUSTRIESEUROFERETAL2004FIG1THREETYPESOFIMPACTFROMTHEEUROPEANEMISSIONTRADINGSCHEMEMAINEUETSINDUSTRIES21DIRECTCOSTTHEPRIMARYGOALOFTHEIMPLEMENTAT
20、IONOFTHEEUETSISTOINDUCETHEINTRODUCTIONOFLOWCARBONTECHNOLOGIESVIATHEPRICEFOREMISSIONALLOWANCESTHATACOMPANYNEEDSTOCOMPENSATEFORITSDIRECTCARBONEMISSIONSSCHLEICHANDBETZ2005WEREFERTOTHISTYPEOFIMPACTASIMPACTOFDIRECTCOSTINTHEFIRSTHALFOF2005THECOSTFORALLOWANCESHASRANGEDFROM8/TCO2INJANUARYTO30/TCO2INJUNEANDS
21、TABILIZEDAT20/TCO2INTHESUBSEQUENTMONTHSTHEREHAVEBEENMANYATTEMPTSTOFORECASTCOMPANIESSTRATEGICDECISIONSINRESPONSETOTHECOSTOFTHEIRCARBONEMISSIONSANANALYSISOFTHEINTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCYIEAFOREXAMPLESHOWEDTHATPOWERPLANTOPERATIONWOULDSWITCHFROMCOALTOGASATANALLOWANCEPRICEOF20/TCO2REINAUD2003ACCORDINGTOAST
22、UDYOFVATTENFALLALSOTHEINVESTMENTINCARBONCAPTUREANDSTORAGE,DISCUSSEDINBOTHTHEPOWERGENERATIONINDUSTRYANDPOWERCONSUMINGINDUSTRIES,REQUIRESANALLOWANCEPRICEBEYOND20/TCO2TOMAKETHISTECHNOLOGYFEASIBLEEUPD2005SEVERALAUTHORSHAVESTARTEDTOANALYZECOMPANIESACTUALSTRATEGICRESPONSESHOWEVER,SINCETHEEUETSHASJUSTSTART
23、ED,THESTUDIESTYPICALLYFOCUSONTHERESPONSETOGENERALCLIMATEPOLICYANDCLIMATECHANGEACLUSTERANALYSISOFDATAGATHEREDFROMTHECARBONDISCLOSUREPROJECT3IDENTIFIEDASETOFTYPICALSTRATEGIESALONGTWODIMENSIONSKOLKANDPINKSE2005ALONGTHEFIRSTDIMENSION,COMPANIESCANCHOOSEBETWEENINNOVATIONANDCOMPENSATIONSTRATEGIES,DEPENDING
24、ONANECONOMICANALYSISOFALLOWANCEPRICEANDMITIGATIONCOSTFOLLOWINGOURDEFINITIONOFIMPACT,WEWOULDONLYCONSIDERACOMPANYTHATCHOOSESTOINNOVATEASBEINGIMPACTED,SINCEACOMPENSATIONSTRATEGYDOESNOTREFLECTTECHNOLOGICALCHANGEFORTHISPARTICULARCOMPANYALONGTHESECONDDIMENSIONTHESEINNOVATIONSTRATEGIESAREOBSERVEDONTHREEDIF
25、FERENTORGANIZATIONALLEVELSCOMPANIESMAYFIRSTINNOVATEINTERNALLYVIAPROCESSIMPROVEMENTSOR,SECOND,VERTICALLYWITHINTHESUPPLYCHAINVIAPRODUCTDEVELOPMENTTHIRD,KOLKANDPINKSEARGUETHATACOMPANYCANEVENMOVEHORIZONTALLYBEYONDTHESUPPLYCHAINTOREALIZENEWPRODUCTANDMARKETCOMBINATIONS,SUCHASINTHECASEOFFUELCELLDEVELOPMENT
26、WHEREOILANDAUTOMOBILECOMPANIESARECOOPERATINGACCORDINGTOOURDEFINITIONOFIMPACT,WEWOULDCONSIDERALLTHREEACTIONSASRESPONSESTOIMPACTFROMDIRECTCOST,SINCEALLTHREEACTIONSREFLECTTECHNOLOGICALCHANGEINTHEAFFECTEDCOMPANY22INDIRECTCOSTTHESECONDTYPEOFIMPACTFROMTHEEUETSRESULTSFROMTHEABILITYOFACOMPANYSSUPPLIERTOPASS
27、THROUGHITSCOSTFROMDIRECTEMISSIONSINTHECASEOFTHEPOWERGENERATIONSECTORTHECOSTFROMDIRECTEMISSIONSMAYBEREFLECTEDASOPPORTUNITYCOSTINTHEELECTRICITYPRICECONSEQUENTLY,THEEUETSHASANINDIRECTIMPACTONPOWERCONSUMINGINDUSTRIESSUCHASTHESTEEL,THEPULPANDPAPER,ORTHECEMENTINDUSTRYTHISEFFECTMAYALSOIMPACTINDUSTRIESSUCHA
28、STHEALUMINUMINDUSTRYWHICH,ACCORDINGTOEUDIRECTIVE2003/87/EC,ISNOTCOVEREDBYTHEEUETSASTHISIMPACTREFLECTSTHEEMISSIONSTHATACOMPANYCAUSESINDIRECTLYBYCONSUMINGPOWEROROTHER“NONCLEAN“GOODS,WEREFERTOTHISTYPEOFIMPACTASIMPACTFROMINDIRECTCOSTTHESPOTPRICEFORPOWERATTHEEUROPEANENERGYEXCHANGEEEXINCREASEDFROM2735/MWH
29、INJUNE2004TO2974/MWHINDECEMBER2004AND4667/MWHINJUNE20054THISCORRESPONDSTOA9INCREASEINTHESECONDHALFOF2004ANDA57INCREASEINTHEFIRSTHALFOF2005OFCOURSETHISINCREASEISDRIVENBYMULTIPLEFACTORSSUCHASTHEOILANDGASPRICEANDCANNOTBEASSIGNEDENTIRELYTOEFFECTSFROMTHEINTRODUCTIONOFTHEEUETSHOWEVER,ACCORDINGTOTHEFINANCI
30、ALTIMESDEUTSCHLAND,AGERMANPOWERUTILITYWASEXPECTING300350MIOADDITIONALPROFITINANINTERNALESTIMATEINSEPTEMBER2004FROMPRICINGINTHEOPPORTUNITYCOSTFROMEMISSIONALLOWANCESGAMMELINANDHECKING2005ACCORDINGTOTHISSAMEARTICLE,POWERINTENSIVEINDUSTRIESINGERMANYAREEXPECTINGANADDITIONALCOSTOF1000MIOTHATCANNOTBEEXPLAI
31、NEDWITHOUTIMPACTFROMTHEEUETSTHISCOSTINCREASEHASANIMPACTONSTRATEGICDECISIONSOFPOWERCONSUMINGCOMPANIES,WHICHWECALLIMPACTFROMINDIRECTCOSTLARGEALUMINUMPRODUCERSSUCHASNORSKHYDROARECURRENTLYASSIGNING10/MWHOFTHEIRINCREASEINPOWERPRICESTOINDIRECTEFFECTSFROMTHEEUETSSINCEPOWERACCOUNTSFOR40INTHEPRODUCTIONCOSTOF
32、PRIMARYALUMINUM,THEALUMINUMINDUSTRYISEXPECTEDTOEXITEUROPEANDHAVEITSMAJORPRODUCTIONVOLUMESOUTSIDEEUROPEBY2015GASSMANN200523UNCERTAINTYTHETHIRDTYPEOFIMPACTFROMTHEEUETSRESULTSFROMTHELIMITEDPREDICTABILITYANDPLANNINGRELIABILITYTHATTHETRADINGSYSTEMCREATESININVESTMENTDECISIONSTRAUTMANNETAL2006THISLIMITEDPR
33、EDICTABILITYRESULTSFROMBOTHPRICEUNCERTAINTYREGARDINGTHEMARKETFOREMISSIONALLOWANCESANDFROMSYSTEMICUNCERTAINTIESTHELATTERRESULTFROMOPENQUESTIONSREGARDINGTHEOBJECTIVE,MEASURESANDRULES,THEIMPLEMENTATIONPROCESSOFTHEEUETS,ASWELLASTHEINTERDEPENDENCEWITHOTHERREGULATIONS,ANDTHESEAREPARTLYREFLECTEDINTHEALLOWA
34、NCEPRICECOMPANIESAREREACTINGQUITEDIFFERENTLYTOSUCHUNCERTAINTIESREGARDINGTHEPROACTIVEVSREACTIVEDIMENSIONARAGNCORREAANDSHARMA2003PAULSSONANDVONMALMBORG2004ANDWEAREREFERRINGTOTHISTYPEOFIMPACTASIMPACTFROMUNCERTAINTYANANALYSISOFTHESTATUSOFTHEEUETSBYTHEPEWCENTER2005CONCLUDESTHATKEYREMAININGUNCERTAINTIESIN
35、CLUDENOTONLYTHEEXPECTATIONSOFFUTURETARGETSANDPRICESBUTALSOTHEREADINESSOFALLPARTIESTOTRADE,LINKAGESTOOTHERTRADINGPROGRAMS,THEAVAILABILITYANDUSEOFPROJECTBASEDALLOWANCES,THEIMPACTOFRUSSIANEMISSIONCREDITS,STRATEGIESOFNEWCENTRALANDEASTERNEUROPEANMEMBERSTATES,THECOMPLIANCEROLEOFGOVERNMENTS,ANDPROGRESSINEM
36、ISSIONREDUCTIONSFROMSECTORSOUTSIDETHEEUETSINONEWAYORANOTHER,THESEUNCERTAINTIESMAYBEPARTLYREFLECTEDINFUTUREALLOCATIONSANDULTIMATELYINTHEALLOWANCEPRICEAND,SINCETHEKYOTOPROTOCOLCOVERSTHEYEARS20082012,MANYOFTHESEQUESTIONSREMAINOPENREGARDINGTHESOCALLEDPOSTKYOTOORPOST2012PHASEACCORDINGTOASURVEYCONDUCTEDIN
37、NOVEMBERDECEMBER2004COMPANIESGREATESTCONCERNSINCLUDEDUNCERTAINTIESREGARDINGALLOCATION200812ANDPOLICYPOST2012PWC2005SINCETHEEUETSHASBEENIMPLEMENTED,THEREISONLYLITTLERESEARCHREGARDINGCOMPANIESRESPONSESTOTHEEUETSANDEVENLESSREGARDINGCOMPANIESRESPONSESTOUNCERTAINTYHOWEVERTHEREARESOMEINDICATIONSTHATUNCERT
38、AINTYISINDUCINGA“WAITANDSEE“STRATEGYANEARLYINVESTIGATIONINSWEDENREVEALEDTHAT,ALTHOUGHSWEDENANDSWEDISHCOMPANIESHAVEATRADITIONOFBEINGPROACTIVEINENVIRONMENTALPOLICYANDMANAGEMENT,COMPANIESAREACTINGPASSIVELYWHENITCOMESTOEMISSIONTRADINGPAULSSONANDVONMALMBORG2004THERESEARCHERSSTATETHAT“AMBIGUOUSGOVERNMENTP
39、OLICIESARECLAIMEDTOPREVENTTHECOMPANIESFROMMAKINGLONGTERMSTRATEGIESONCLIMATECHANGEMITIGATIONINGENERALANDEMISSIONTRADINGINPARTICULAR“FURTHERMORE,ACROSSINDUSTRYANALYSISOFEUROPEANCOMPANIESAFFECTEDBYTHEEUETSREVEALEDASIGNIFICANTCORRELATIONBETWEENCOMPANIESTHATINDICATEDASTRONGIMPACTOFTHEEUETSONTHEIRINVESTME
40、NTDECISIONSANDCOMPANIESTHATPERCEIVEDAHIGHLEVELOFUNCERTAINTYHOFFMANNANDTRAUTMANN2006THUS,EVENIFTHEIMPACTFROMDIRECTORINDIRECTCOSTMIGHTINDUCEASTRATEGICINVESTMENTFROMANECONOMICPOINTOFVIEW,THEIMPACTFROMUNCERTAINTYCANALTERTHESTRATEGY,FOREXAMPLEBYSIMPLYPOSTPONINGOTHERWISEFEASIBLEINVESTMENTDECISIONS3EMPIRIC
41、ALEVIDENCE31METHODINORDERTOINVESTIGATETHETHREETYPESOFIMPACTFROMTHEEUETS,WECONDUCTEDAEUROPEWIDESURVEYSIXMONTHSAFTERTHELAUNCHOFTHETRADINGSCHEMEINJANUARY2005SINCEWEWANTEDTOUNDERSTANDTHERELATIVEIMPORTANCEOFDIRECTANDINDIRECTCOSTIMPACT,WECHOSETOANALYZETHESTEEL,PULPANDPAPER,ANDCEMENTINDUSTRIESALLTHREEINDUS
42、TRIESAREAFFECTEDDIRECTLYASTHEYARECOVEREDBYTHEEUETSACCORDINGTOEUDIRECTIVE2003/87/EC5SINCEELECTRICITYACCOUNTSFORASIGNIFICANTPORTIONOFTHEIRPRODUCTIONCOST,ALLTHREEINDUSTRIESAREFURTHERIMPACTEDINDIRECTLYVIATHEPOWERINDUSTRYFINALLY,ACCOUNTINGFOR40OFTHEEMISSIONSCOVEREDBYTHEEUETS,THESEINDUSTRIESREPRESENTALARG
43、ESHAREOFTHEEUETSANDASOLIDBASISFORUNDERSTANDINGTHEIMPACTOFUNCERTAINTYSOURCEVOLKERVOLKERHOFFMANNTHOMASTRAUTMANNTHREETYPESOFIMPACTFROMTHEEUROPEANEMISSIONTRADINGSCHEMEDIRECTCOST,INDIRECTCOSTANDUNCERTAINTYJECONOMICSANDMANAGEMENTOFCLIMATECHANGE2008PARTII111123译文影响欧洲排污权交易计划的三种类型直接成本,间接成本和不确定性简介作者证明来自欧洲排污权交
44、易方案的三种类型的影响会影响到公司直接影响,间接影响,不确定性。而直接影响的成本是指购买免税额的成本，间接影响指要素成本的增加和供应商的价格在他们的排放成本。不确定性是指有限的规划但可靠的规定的许多细节仍在谈判或只持续数年。在全欧洲的调查的基础上,作者进行了实证分析显示相关性和工业依赖这些类型的影响公司的决策。关键词排污权贸易、企业战略、不确定性1前言2005年1月欧盟的温室气体排放贸易计划欧盟ETS开始运作。而实际上的交易排放津贴似乎是建成运行,问题在于欧盟ETS是否将会引导起技术创新以达到京都议定书的目标GAGELMANN和FRONDEL2005；HOFFMANNANDTRAUTMANN2
45、006；SCHLEICHANDBETZ2005。似乎那里鼓励基于在环境政策中的有诱导经济高效的技术创新与扩散指挥和控制的方法（JAFFEETAL，2004年；比高概率的协议MAJUMDAR和马库斯2001年）。然而，公司在其重要的规划的可靠性，作为投资行业如电源和钢铁工业的决定目前提交公司未来2030年。因此，欧盟电子投标系统的执行情况所引起的不明朗因素可能会影响公司的技术反应和影响的重要因素，是否主动或被动的战略决策采取（阿拉贡科雷亚1998年；2003年夏尔马和ARAGNCORREA）。在调查有关战略应对欧盟ETS的公司的决定时，我们建议有三种类型的从欧盟电子投标系统，需要加以考虑，以便了
46、解欧盟电子投标系统的增量疗效的影响。第一类是从产生的一家公司需要购买免税额的直接成本的影响覆盖其直接碳排放量的成本影响未来投资决策和技术可供选择。大多数公司已经反映出津贴费用的日常运作和未来的投资决定2005年预委会的评价。第二，可以有一个从战略决策的间接成本的影响。如果直接受影响的公司有能力将其直接的碳成本集中到其产品价格产生这种效果公司发射器后生成与价值链中的位置的其他公司的间接成本影响。因此间接成本的影响反映了一家公司生成二氧化碳激烈产品进一步提高价值链及其需求的间接排放量。第三，我们认为从欧盟电子投标系统的实施不确定性的影响是一个需要研究公司的战略决策时要考虑的重要因素COMPAREH
47、OFFMANNANDTRAUTMANN2006。事实上几乎没有了解相关的不确定性的上下文政策落实的工具。MARCUS在1981年写到“很难知道政策不确定性是否只是一个没有创新的合理化或是否有政策的不确定性和技术变革的原因和影响关系”。理论与实证研究显示混合的图片在PAULSSON和MALMBORG2004年的调查结果指示在有关欧盟对外政策的不确定性结果“等待看见“战略中有些作者认为环境的不确定性一般增加了一家公司将会发展一个积极主动的环境战略的可能性ARAGNCORREAANDSHARMA2003；ETTLIE1983。请注意第三个类型的影响不确定性。不能查看隔绝的直接和间接成本的影响。不确定
48、性可能会导致战略反应独立的成本影响（阿拉贡科雷亚和夏尔马2003年），但也可能会温和成本影响（MARCUSANDKAUFMAN1986年）战略回应。在2006年HOFFMANN和TRAUTMANN表明欧盟ETS的报告对投资决策的影响和感知的不确定度水平相关性表示这些类型的影响之间的相互依存。有些作者认为,不确定性的角色只能理解拍照的时候公司的行业特定的语境记录HREBINIAKANDSNOW1980。我们认为行业特定的环境是一个特别重要的参数，因为它反映了直接或间接排放量的相对重要性和本地或全球竞争。以下各节中，我们将分析影响、直接成本、间接成本和更多的详细信息和支持这三种类型的影响在欧盟ET
49、S的情况下存在这些影响的行业依赖的随后目前实证结果的不确定性的三种类型。2三种类型的管理影响我们定义影响产生影响公司的决策提供技术策略有一个高影响如果欧盟ETS表演提出了更高的影响公司的技术策略。术语影响是指影响从欧盟ETS的增量式效果资产。因此,我们具体分析了那可能不会影响欧盟ETS。技术战略将焦点设置投资决定，而不是有关交易的实际免税额的决定。类型的影响是指通过欧盟ES有一个影响因果路径可以直接通过排污权津贴定价（直接成本），间接通过传递津贴成本（间接成本），或者通过不确定性。数据显示了所有三种类型的影响。间接成本分析我们致力于电力价格的影响，这是特别重要的电源密集型行业如钢铁、纸浆和纸和水泥的成本结构。已在2004年1月电源密集的工业协会指出在电力工业中可能意外利润从一个增加的电力价格和对电源密集的工业竞争力的影响EUROFERETAL2004。图1三种类型的从欧洲排放贸易计划的影响（主要欧盟ETS行业）21直接成本欧盟ETS的执行情况的主要目标是使采用低碳技术通过一家公司需要弥补其直接碳排放的废气排放津贴的价格SCHLEICHANDBETZ2005。我们将这种类型的影响称为直接成本的影响。在2005年上半年津贴的成本已从8欧元/当量在6月1至30欧元/当量和稳定在20欧元/当量随后几个月不等。有很多尝
