1、原文NBERWORKINGPAPERSSERIESEQUIPMENTINVESTANDECONOMYGROWTHJBRADFORDBELONGLAWRENCEHSUMMERSABSTRACTUSINGDATEFROMTHEUNITEDNATIONSCOMPARISONPROJECTANDTHEPENNWORLDTABLEWEFINDTHATMACHINERYANDEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTHASASTRONGASSOCIATIONWITHGROWTHOVERL960L985EACHPERCENTOFGDPINVESTEDINEQUIPMENTISASSOCIATEDWITHANIN
2、CREASEINGDPGROWTHOF1/3APERCENTAGEPOINTPERYEARTHISISAMUCHSTRONGERASSOCIATIONTHANFOUNDBETWEENGROWTHANDANYOFTHEOTHERCOMPONENTSOFINVESTMENTAVARIETYOFCONSIDERATIONSSUGGESTTHATTHISASSOCIATIONISCAUSAL,THATHIGHEREQUIPMENTINVESTMENTDRIVESFASTERGROWTH,ANDTHATTHESOCIALRETURNTOEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTINWELLFUNCTIONI
3、NGMARKETECONOMIESISONTHEORDEROF30PERCENTPERYEARIINTRODUCTIONITISNOACCIDENTTHATTHEERAINWHICHEUROPEANECONOMICGROWTHTOOKOFFISCALLEDTHEINDUSTRIALREVOLUTIONBLANQUI18371,FIRSTTOUSETHEPHRASEINPRINT,IDENTIFIEDITSBEGINNINGSINTHEINVENTIONANDSPREADOFTHOSE“TWOMACHINES,HENCEFORTHIMMORTAL,THESTEAMENGINEANDTHECOTT
4、ONSPINNINGWATERFRAME“EVERSINCE,QUALITATIVEHISTORICALDISCUSSIONSOFGROWTHHAVEEMPHASIZEDTHEROLEOFMACHINERYINVESTMENTINAUGMENTINGLABORPOWERLANDES1969STATEMENTTHAT“THEMACHINEISATTHEHEARTOFTHENEWECONOMICCIVILIZATION“ISTYPICALOFACCOUNTSTHATHAVEASSIGNEDACENTRALROLETOMECHANIZATIONTECHNOLOGYEMBODIEDINMACHINER
5、YHASBEEN,ASMOKYR1990SAYS,“THELEVEROFRICHES“YETATLEASTUNTILRECENTLYMODERNQUANTITATIVESTUDIESOFECONOMICGROWTHHAVETENDEDTODOWNPLAYTHEROLEOFMECHANIZATIONWORKINTHEAGGREGATEDGROWTHACCOUNTINGTRADITIONOFSOLOW1957,DENISON1967,ANDABRAMOVITZ1956HASTYPICALLYCONCLUDEDTHATCAPITALACCUMULATIONACCOUNTSFORONLYARELATI
6、VELYSMALLFRACTIONOFPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHININDIVIDUALCOUNTRIES,OROFDIFFERENCESACROSSCOUNTRIES1THEASSUMPTIONUNDERLYINGGROWTHACCOUNTINGCALCULATIONSTHATCAPITALISPAIDITSMARGINALPRODUCT,COUPLEDWITHOBSERVEDPROFITRATES,IMPLIESTHATINCREASINGTHERATEOFCAPITALACCUMULATIONCANMAKEONLYAMODESTCONTRIBUTIONTOINCREASINGG
7、ROWTHINNETPRODUCTEVENADOUBLINGOFTHEUSNETPRIVATEINVESTMENTRATEWOULD,ACCORDINGTOSTANDARDESTIMATES,RAISETHEGROWTHRATEOFREALINCOMEBYLESSTHANHALFAPERCENTAGEPOINTPERYEARTHISPAPERPROVIDESQUANTITATIVEEVIDENCEINSUPPORTOFTHEOLDER,TRADITIONALVIEWTHATTHEACCUMULATIONOFMACHINERYISAPRIMEDETERMINANTOFNATIONALRATESO
8、FPRODUCTIVITYGROWTH,ANDAGAINSTTHESUPPOSITIONTHATTHEPRIVATERETURNTOEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTMIRRORSITSSOCIALPRODUCTUSINGDATAONTHECOMPONENTSOFINVESTMENTDRAWNFROMTHEUNITEDNATIONSINTERNATIONALCOMPARISONPROJECTUNICPSEEKRAVIS,HESTON,ANDSUMMERS1982ANDUNITEDNATIONS1985ANDSUMMERSANDHESTON1988,1990,WEDEMONSTRATEACL
9、EAR,STRONGANDROBUSTSTATISTICALRELATIONSHIPBETWEENNATIONALRATESOFMACHINERYANDEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTANDPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTHASFARMOREEXPLANATORYPOWERFORNATIONALRATESOFPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHTHANOTHERCOMPONENTSOFINVESTMENT,ANDOUTPERFORMSMANYOTHERVARIABLESINCLUDEDINCROSSCOUNTRYEQUATIONSACCOUNTI
10、NGFORGROWTHHIGHRATESOFEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTCAN,FOREXAMPLE,ACCOUNTFORNEARLYALLOFJAPANSEXTRAORDINARYGROWTHPERFORMANCETIMINGEVIDENCE,CONSIDERATIONOFALTERNATIVESOURCESOFVARIATIONINEQUIPMENTINVESTMENT,THEBEHAVIOROFEQUIPMENTPRICES,ANDTHEDIFFERINGASSOCIATIONOFEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTWITHINTENSIVEANDEXTENSIVEGROWT
11、HALLSUGGESTTHATTHISASSOCIATIONISCAUSAL,WITHHIGHEREQUIPMENTINVESTMENTDRIVINGFASTERECONOMICGROWTHWEINTERPRETOURRESULTSASSUGGESTINGTHATTHESOCIALRETURNTOEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTINWELLFUNCTIONINGMARKETECONOMIESISONTHEORDEROFTHIRTYPERCENTPERYEARTHISPAPERISORGANIZEDASFOLLOWSSECTIONIIMOTIVATESOUREMPHASISONEQUIPM
12、ENTINVESTMENTANDPRESENTSINFORMATIONONEQUIPMENTPRICESANDQUANTITIESFOROURSAMPLEOFCOUNTRIESSECTIONIIIPRESENTSTHEBASICRESULTSLINKINGEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTANDPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHITALSOEXPLORESTHEIRROBUSTNESSALONGANUMBEROFDIMENSIONSINCLUDINGVARIATIONSINSAMPLEPERIOD,THESAMPLEOFCOUNTRIES,THEINCLUSIONOFADDITIONAL
13、DETERMINANTSOFGROWTH,VARIOUSINTERACTIONS,ANDALTERNATIVEMEASURESOFEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTSECTIONIVADDRESSESTHEISSUEOFCAUSALITYINTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTANDGROWTHTHEPATTERNOFEQUIPMENTPRICESSUPPORTSTHECLAIMTHATFASTGROWINGCOUNTRIESARETHOSEWITHFAVORABLESUPPLYCONDITIONSFORPRODUCERSEQUIPMENT,N
14、OTTHOSEWHERESOMETHIRDFACTORHASACCELERATEDGROWTHANDSHIFTEDTHEDEMANDCURVEFORPRODUCERSEQUIPMENTOUTWARDSECTIONIVALSOEXAMINESTHETIMINGOFTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTANDGROWTH,THEEFFECTSOFALTERNATIVESOURCESOFVARIATIONINEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTONPRODUCTIVITYGROWTH,ANDTHEDIFFERENTIALASSOCIATIONOFEQUI
15、PMENTINVESTMENTWITHTHATPARTOFGDPGROWTHGENERATEDBYRISINGPRODUCTIVITYANDTHATPARTGENERATEDBYANINCREASINGLABORFORCESECTIONVCONCLUDESBYDISCUSSINGTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENOURRESULTSANDPREVIOUSARGUMENTSSUGGESTINGTHEUNIMPORTANCEOFAPITALFORMATION,ANDCONSIDERINGTHENORMATIVEIMPLICATIONSOFOURFINDINGSIIEQUIPMENTINV
16、ESTMENTANDECONOMICSTRUCTUREAUIPMENTINVESTMENTANDECONOMICDEVELOPMENTTHEREAREATLEASTTHREEGROUNDSFORSUSPECTINGTHATEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTMAYHAVEHIGHERSOCIALRETURNSTHANOTHERFORMSOFINVESTMENTFIRST,ASWEHAVEALREADYNOTED,HISTORICALACCOUNTSOFECONOMICGROWTHINVARIABLYASSIGNACENTRALROLETOMECHANIZATIONSECOND,DISCUSS
17、IONSOFECONOMICGROWTHINTHEDEVELOPMENTECONOMICSLIKEHIRSCHMAN1958ORCHENERYETA1986ANDTHENEWGROWTHTHEORYTRADITIONSLIKEROMER1986STRESSEXTERNALECONOMIESOR“LINKAGES“ASCAUSESOFGROWTHTHIRD,ITISOFTENALLEGEDTHATANUMBEROFCOUNTRIESHAVESUCCEEDEDINGROWINGRAPIDLYBYPURSUINGAGOVERNMENTLED“DEVELOPMENTALSTATE“APPROACHTO
18、DEVELOPMENTBMEASURINGEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTDATAONTHESHAREOFNOMINALNATIONALPRODUCTDEVOTEDTOEQUIPMENTHAVELONGBEENAVAILABLEFROMNATIONALINCOMEACCOUNTSDATAHOWEVER,THESEDATADONOTPERMITANACCURATEASSESSMENTOFTHEIMPACTOFEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTONGROWTHUNLESSTHERELATIVEPRICEOFEQUIPMENTISCONSTANTACROSSCOUNTRIESTHEAVAI
19、LABILITYOFDATAFROMTHEUNICP,DESCRIBEDINKRAVIS,HESTONANDSUMMERS1982,PROVIDESINFORMATIONONTHERELATIVEPRICESOFMANYCOMPONENTSOFGNPATADISAGGREGATEDLEVELFORALARGESAMPLEOFCOUNTRIESFORINDIVIDUALSNAPSHOT“YEARSITISTHEREFOREPOSSIBLETOSTUDYINACROSSSECTIONOFNATIONSTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENINVESTMENTCOMPONENTSANDGROW
20、THTHEICPCOLLECTSDATAONTHREECOMPONENTSOFPRODUCERSDURABLEINVESTMENTPRODUCERSTRANSPORTATIONEQUIPMENT,ELECTRICALMACHINERY,ANDNONELECTRICALMACHINERYINANEARLIERDRAFTOFTHISPAPERDELONGANDSUMMERS1990WEINVESTIGATEDTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENTOTALPRODUCERSDURABLEINVESTMENTTHESUMOFTHESETHREECOMPONENTSANDPRODUCTIVITY
21、GROWTHINCARRYINGOUTTHERESEARCHREPORTEDHERE,WEREALIZEDTHEREWASLITTLEINFORMATIONINTHEPRODUCERSTRANSPORTATIONCOMPONENTOFDURABLES,ANDSOINTHISPAPERWEFOCUSPRIMARILYONANEQUIPMENTAGGREGATECOMPRISINGELECTRICALANDNONELECTRICALMACHINERYWITHTHEBENEFITOFHINDSIGHTTHEEXCLUSIONOFPRODUCERSTRANSPORTATIONEQUIPMENTCANP
22、ERHAPSBEJUSTIFIEDBYARGUINGTHATMUCHVARIATIONINRATESOFTRANSPORTATIONINVESTMENTREFLECTSDIFFERENCESINTHE“NEED“FORTRANSPORTATIONCAUSEDBYDIFFERENCESINURBANIZATIONANDPOPULATIONDENSITYCECONOMICSTRUCTURESANDGDPPERWORKERLEVELSTHEMOSTEXTENSIVEICPDATAONEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTCOMESFROMTHEPHASEIV1980SURVEYWHICHCOVERS
23、MORETHANSIXTYCOUNTRIESWEDRAWTHREEPRINCIPALCONCLUSIONSFIRST,VARIATIONSINRELATIVEPRICESOFEQUIPMENTARELARGE,ANDSOMEASURESOFTHESHAREOFNOMINALNATIONALPRODUCTDEVOTEDTOEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTARELIKELYTOBEMISLEADINGGUIDESTOREALMAGNITUDESSECOND,THEREAREWIDEVARIATIONSINNATIONALRATESOFEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTASASHAREOF
24、GDPTHIRD,POORERNATIONSPOSSESSVERYLARGERELATIVEVARIANCESINTHEIREQUIPMENTPRICESANDQUANTITIESWEARETHUSSKEPTICALOFWHATCANBELEARNEDBYCOMBININGINONEREGRESSIONVERYPOORCOUNTRIES,WHICHAPPEARTOHAVEPRODUCTIVITYLEVELSLESSTHANTHOSEENJOYEDINTHEUNITEDSTATESBEFORETHEINDUSTRIALREVOLUTION,6WITHTECHNOLOGICALLYSOPHISTI
25、CATEDDEVELOPEDCOUNTRIESIIIEQUIPMENTANDGROWTHTHISSECTIONDEMONSTRATESTHATNATIONSWHICHINVESTEDHEAVILYINEQUIPMENTRELATIVETOOTHERNATIONSATTHESAMESTAGEOFECONOMICDEVELOPMENTENJOYEDRAPIDGROWTHOVER19601985OURMEASUREOFECONOMICGROWTHISTHEGROWTHRATEOFGDPPERWORKER,MEASUREDININTERNATIONALDOLLARS,ASREPORTEDBYSUMME
26、RSANDHESTON1990INEVALUATINGTHECONTRIBUTIONOFEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTTOGROWTH,WEHOLDCONSTANTLABORFORCEGROWTHRATES,THESHAREOFGDPDEVOTEDTONONEQUIPMENTINVESTMENT,ANDTHELEVELOFGDPPERWORKERFORTHEMOSTPART,WERELYONTHEINCLUSIONOFTHEINITIALGDPPERWORKERGAPINTHEREGRESSIONSTOCONTROLFORANYSYSTEMATICCAUSALRELATIONSHIPR
27、UNNINGFROMTHELEVELOFGDPPERWORKERTOTHELEVELOFEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTWEALSOEXPERIMENTWITHUSINGAGAPVARIABLEFROMTHEMIDDLEOFTHESAMPLE,ASRECOMMENDEDBYROMER1989IVDOESEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTCAUSEPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTQUANTITIESANDECONOMICGROWTHAPPEARSRELATIVELYROBUST,INTHATEQUIP
28、MENTINVESTMENTDOESNOTAPPEARTOBEPROXYINGFORSOMEOTHERWIDELYRECOGNIZEDDETERMINANTOFGROWTHTHISSECTIONTAKESUPTHEQUESTIONOFWHETHERTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTANDGROWTHISCAUSALONEREASONTOBELIEVETHATEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTCAUSESGROWTH,RATHERTHANTHATGROWTHCAUSESINVESTMENT,ISTHATIFGROWTHCAUSEDINVESTM
29、ENTWEWOULDEXPECTTOSEESIMILARASSOCIATIONSBETWEENEQUIPMENTANDSTRUCTURESINVESTMENTANDGROWTHRAPIDECONOMICGROWTHCERTAINLYRAISESTHEQUASIRENTSEARNEDBYINVESTMENTSINEQUIPMENTTOESTABLISHANDENTRENCHMARKETPOSITIONS,BUTITALSORAISESTHERENTSEARNEDBYSTRUCTURESFAVORABLYLOCATEDLANDISINFIXEDSUPPLYANDLARGERSTRUCTURESEC
30、ONOMIZEONTHEUSEOFSUCHLAND,ANDSOONEMIGHTIMAGINETHATFASTERECONOMICGROWTHWOULDTENDTOSHIFTTHEUSEOFSAVINGSAWAYFROMPRODUCERSEQUIPMENTANDTOWARDSTRUCTURESYETITISEQUIPMENT,NOTINVESTMENTANDNOTSTRUCTURES,THATISASSOCIATEDWITHRAPIDGROWTHINOURSAMPLEINTHISSECTIONWEPROVIDEADDITIONALEVIDENCEAGAINSTTHEHYPOTHESISTHATE
31、QUIPMENTINVESTMENTANDGROWTHAREBOTHDRIVENBYSOMETHIRDVARIABLETHATTHESAMEFAVORABLECONDITIONSTHATRAISEPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHMIGHTALSOENCOURAGEEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTWITHOUTEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTPLAYINGANESSENTIALDIRECTROLEINFOURFURTHERSTEPSFIRST,WEEXAMINETHEASSOCIATIONBETWEENEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTANDTHECOMPONENTSOFGD
32、PGROWTHDRIVENBYPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHANDLABORFORCEGROWTHWEFINDAMUCHCLOSERRELATIONSHIPBETWEENPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHANDEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTTHANBETWEENPRODUCTIVITYGROWTHANDLABORFORCEGROWTHTHISISHARDTORECONCILEWITHAVIEWPOINTTHATHOLDSTHATINCREASINGGDPDRIVESEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTSECOND,WECONSIDERTIMINGEVIDENCETHIRD,W
33、ECONSIDERTHEJOINTBEHAVIOROFEQUIPMENTPRICESANDQUANTITIESWEREGARDTHISASTHESTRONGESTOFTHEPIECESOFEVIDENCEFASTGROWTHGOESWITHHIGHQUANTITIESANDLOWPRICESOFEQUIPMENTINVESTMENT,ANDTHISISNOTEASYTORECONCILEWITHTHEBELIEFTHATTHEHIGHQUANTITYOFEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTINRAPIDLYGROWINGCOUNTRIESISDUETOSOMEOTHERFACTORTHATH
34、ASBOTHCAUSEDFASTGROWTHANDSHIFTEDTHEDEMANDCURVEFOREQUIPMENTINVESTMENTOUTWARDFOURTH,WECONSIDERTHEEFFECTSOFALTERNATIVEINSTRUMENTSFORTHEEQUIPMENTQUANTITYVARIABLEIFTHEASSOCIATIONBETWEENGROWTHANDINVESTMENTWEREDUETOSOMEADDITIONALFACTORCAUSINGBOTH,ITWOULDBESURPRISINGIFTHATADDITIONALFACTORWERECLOSELYASSOCIAT
35、EDWITHALLOFTHEDIFFERENTINSTRUMENTSWEUSEVIMPLICATIONSANDCONCLUSIONSWETHINKTHATTHISPAPERMAKESAPERSUASIVECASEFORASTRONGASSOCIATIONBETWEENEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTANDGROWTHTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENRATESOFEQUIPMENTINVESTMENTANDGROWTHISVERYDIFFERENTFROMTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENSTRUCTURESINVESTMENTANDGROWTHITACCOUNTSF
36、ORASUBSTANTIALPARTOFTHEVARIATIONINRATESOFGROWTHWHILETHEREAREAFEWANOMALIES,WESUSPECTTHATTHERESULTSAREVERYROBUSTBYTHESTANDARDSOFRESEARCHONCROSSCOUNTRYGROWTHTESTSOFROBUSTNESSPERFORMEDHEREHAVEBEENMOREEXTENSIVETHANINOTHEREFFORTSFOREXAMPLE,ROMER198911TODRAWCONCLUSIONSABOUTINVESTMENTGROWTHCORRELATIONSGIVEN
37、THESMALLNUMBEROFOBSERVATIONS,THELARGENUMBEROFINDEPENDENTVARIABLES,ANDTHEPOORQUALITYOFMUCHDATAUNDERLYINGTHELARGERSAMPLEREGRESSIONS,ANOMALIESAREINEVITABLEWHATISOFINTERESTISNOTTHATSOMESPECIFICATIONSDONOTSUPPORTOURINTERPRETATION,BUTTHATMANYDO外文题目EQUIPMENTINVESTANDECONOMYGROWTH出处NBERWORKINGPAPERSSERIES作者
38、JBRADFORDBELONGLAWRENCEHSUMMERS译文设备投资和经济增长摘要利用从联合国比较项目和宾夕法尼亚的世界平台。我们发现机械和设备方面的投资与增长存在一个强有力的关系在1960L985年间，每年设备投资占GDP的百分比拉动国内生产总值增长1/3个百分点。经济增长和投资的任何其他组成部分存在一个更强大的关联比。各种研究表明，它们之间缩存在的关系是因果关系，即高度设备投资推动快速的经济增长，而且在运作良好的市场经济的情况下每年社会回报为设备投资的百分之30的比率。一、简介欧洲经济增长带关闭被称为工业革命并不是偶然的年代。布朗基18371，首先用使用这种说法是打印行业，界定了其开
39、始的发明和传播的“两台机器，从此不朽，蒸汽机和织布机水帧”。从那以后，增长的定性的历史讨论强调了充实的机械投资对日益增长劳动力的重要作用。兰德斯1969声明说“机器是新经济文明的核心”是有机械化的核心作用指定帐户的特点。技术已经具体化为机械，就像莫基尔1990所说的财富的杠杆。然而，至少在最近的现代经济增长的定量研究往往淡化机械化的作用。在索洛增长汇总1957，丹尼森1967和ABRAMOVITZ就1956会计传统的工作已经得出结论，通常只有在个别国家或跨越不同国家的资本积累帐户只占生产率增长相对一小部分，潜在经济增长核算认为资本支付其边际产品，加上与观察到的收益率计算，意味着增加资本积累率对
40、增加产品的净增长只有微薄的贡献。即使增加一倍，依据上述标准估计美国的净私人投资率每年提高了不到实际收入的增长速度的半个百分点。本文提供了年纪，对传统的支持定量的证据表明，机械积累是国家的生产力增长速度基本决定因素，并针对假设，私营对设备的投资反作用反映它的社会产品。使用从联合国国际比较项目（联合国ICP）的（见克拉维斯，赫斯顿和萨默斯1982和联合国1985）和萨默斯和赫斯顿1988，1990划定的投资组成部分的数据，我们得出了设备投资的机械率和生产率的增长存在一个明确的，强有力的关系。设备投资已经远远的生产力比投资其他组件增长地区费率更具有解释力，并优于许多其他变数越野方程增长高的设备投资率
41、，例如，近日本非凡的所有帐户生长性能。时序数据，在设备投资，设备价格的行为，以及密集的设备投资和粗放型增长不同的协会都表明，这种关联有因果关系具有较高的设备投资带动经济较快增长，变异的一种替代来源的考虑。我们解释结果表明回报社会的运作良好的市场经济体的设备投资对每年百分之三十的速率。本文结构如下，第二节强调对设备投资的重点，并提出了我们国家的样本对设备的价格和数量信息。第三部分介绍了连接设备投资和生产力发展的基本结果。它还探讨各种样品间，包括周期变化，对国家的样本，更多的维数列入他们的鲁棒性增长，各种相互作用决定因素，以及设备投资的替代措施。第四节指出设备投资和经济增长之间的因果关系的问题。该
42、设备价格的模式支持的说法，快速增长的国家是对生产者的装备，而不是那些有第三个因素，加速增长，转向对生产者的需求曲线的设备向外有利条件的供应。第四节还考察了设备投资和经济增长之间关系的时机，替代能源的变化对生产力增长的设备投资影响，并与该国内生产总值增长部分的设备投资所产生的差别协会生产力上升和劳动力的增加所产生的那部分。第五节最后讨论的结果和以前评论者的论据并不重要的暗示资本形成之间的关系，并考虑我们的调查结果的规范性影响。二、设备投资和经济结构A设备投资和经济发展至少有三个理由怀疑该设备投资可能比其他形式的投资有较高社会贡献，首先，正如我们已经注意到，经济增长的历史纪录对机械化总是指定一个核
43、心作用。其次，在发展经济学的经济增长发展的理论（例如赫希曼1958或钱纳里埃塔。1986）和新传统增长理论（如罗默1986）压力或外部经济“联系“作为经济增长的原因。第三，它往往是指一些国家已成功地通过采取迅速增长由政府主导的“发展型国家“的发展方针。B衡量设备投资有关名义国民生产用于仪器设备共享一直可以从国民收入账户的数据。然而，这些数据不能够对设备投资对经济增长影响作出准确的评估，除非各国相对投资价格不变。依据比较方案收集者的三个生产者耐用组件的数据投资生产者的运输设备，电气机械，非电力机械。因此在本文中，我们首先主要集中于一个设备聚合包括电力和非电力机械。随着效益事后的生产者排除运输设备
44、也许可以辩称运输速率太多变化投资反映了交通运输的差异是合理的，在“需要“所造成的城市化进程中的差异和人口密度。C经济结构和每个工人的国内生产总值水平最广泛的国际比较方案设备投资数据来自第四阶段1980年涵盖六十多个国家调查我们提出了三个主要结论。首先，在设备相对价格的变化都很大，因此的名义国民生产设备共享专门措施投资很可能是真实的程度误导指南。第二，有很大的差异在国家利率由于设备投资占GDP的份额。第三，较贫穷的国家具有非常大的相对差异在设备的价格和数量。因此，我们可以得到怀疑结合在一回归非常贫穷的国家，这似乎有生产力水平低于拥有6人与技术先进的发达国家工业革命前的美国。三、设备与增长本节表明
45、，投入巨资设备的国家在经济上相对同阶段其他国家发展经历了1960年至85年的快速增长。我们的测量经济增长是人均国内生产总值的增长速度，测量国际美元所报告的萨默斯和赫斯顿1990。在评估设备投资对增长的贡献，我们认为常劳动力的增长速度，占GDP的份额用于非设备投资和国内生产总值人均水平。如罗默所说的1989在大多数情况下，我们依靠工人的初始人均GDP差距列入回归控制系统的任何因果从级别运行的关系人均GDP工人的设备投资水平。我们也实验与使用该样本中的差距变量。四、设备投资带动生产率增长的原因设备投资数量和经济增长之间出现相对强劲的关系，在该设备投资似乎并没有被广泛认可的其他一些代理行列式的增长。
46、这部分主要说明是否设备投资和经济增长之间的关系是因果关系这个问题。设备投资引起经济的增长，而不是增长导致投资的一个有理由是如果增长造成的投资，我们希望看到设备和结构、投资和增长类似的关系。经济的快速增长必然引发在设备投资所赚取的建立和巩固市场职位，但它也提高了租金收入的结构。通过这种手段使地理位置优越的土地固定的供应结构和较大的节约，所以有人会想象，更快的经济增长将趋于节余资金的使用从远离生产的设备转向结构。然而，它是这样的设备，而不是投资，而不是结构，即与在我们的样本的快速增长。在本节中，我们对这一假设提供更多的证据该设备投资和增长都被一些第三变量所推动，在四个进一步的步骤同样能够提高生产力
47、增长的有利条件也可能鼓励投资设备无设备投资发挥着重要的直接作用。首先，我们考察由劳动生产率的增长和人口的增长带动的增长设备投资和GDP的组成部分之间的关系，我们发现生产率增长及设备之间比与生产率增长和劳动力增长的投资之间存在更密切的关系，一个观点认为国内生产总值增长的驱动器设备投资是难以解释的。其次，我们考虑时间的证据。第三，我们考虑设备的价格和数量的组合情况我们认为作为证据的快速增长，这正好与高数量和价格低廉的设备投资同时存在，设备投资高数量迅速发展的国家，是因为有一些其他因素都引起快速增长和转移的设备投资需求曲线离港这种说法是难以解释的。最后，我们考虑设备数量变量的替代工具的作用，如果在经济增长和投资的关系是由于一些额外的因素导致的，如果额外的因素与所有我们使用不同的工具是密切相关的是难以想象的。五、启示和结论我们认为，这份文章为解释设备投资和增长之间的关系列出一个强大的有说服力的例子。设备投资率和增长速度之间的关系不同于投资结构与增长之间的的关系。在增长速度的变化它占了很大一部分。虽然有一些异常，我们怀疑的结果是非常强大的标准研究越野增长。鲁棒性此间进行的测试比其他的努力更广泛，例如，罗默198911到得出关于投资增长相关性的结论。鉴于小数观察，大量的独立变数，而质量差的大样本回归相关的数据，异常是不可避免的。我们感兴趣的不是有些规格不支持我们的解释而是更多的人是赞同的。
