1、本科毕业论文外文翻译出处CANADIANJOURNALOFECONOMICS作者KLAUSDESMET,FELIPEMEZA,JUANAROJASFOREIGNDIRECTINVESTMENTANDSPILLOVERSGRADUALISMMAYBEBETTERABSTRACTTHESTANDARDARGUMENTSAYSTHATINTHEPRESENCEOFPOSITIVESPILLOVERSFOREIGNDIRECTINVESTMENTSHOULDBEPROMOTEDANDSUBSIDIZEDINCONTRAST,THISPAPERCLAIMSTHATTHEVERYEXISTENCEOFSP
2、ILLOVERSMAYREQUIRETEMPORARILYRESTRICTINGFDIOURARGUMENTISBASEDONTWOFEATURESOFSPILLOVERSTHEYARELIMITEDBYTHEECONOMYSABSORPTIVECAPACITYANDTHEYTAKETIMETOMATERIALIZEBYLETTINGINCAPITALMOREGRADUALLY,INITIALINVESTMENTHASTHETIMETOCREATESPILLOVERSANDUPGRADETHEECONOMYSABSORPTIVECAPACITYBEFOREFURTHERINVESTMENTOC
3、CURSTHEECONOMYCONVERGESTOASTEADYSTATEWITHASUPERIORTECHNOLOGYANDAGREATERCAPITALSTOCK1INTRODUCTIONTHESTANDARDARGUMENTSAYSTHATINTHEPRESENCEOFPOSITIVESPILLOVERSFOREIGNDIRECTINVESTMENTSHOULDBEENCOURAGEDANDSUBSIDIZEDACCORDINGTOTHISVIEW,TRANSITIONECONOMIESSHOULDIMPLEMENTABIGBANGLIBERALIZATIONOFFOREIGNINVES
4、TMENT,ANDADDITIONALFISCALMEASURESSHOULDBEADOPTEDTOENSUREHIGHENOUGHLEVELSOFFOREIGNINVESTMENTTHISBELIEFINSPILLOVERSHASPROMPTEDCOUNTRIESACROSSTHEGLOBETOAPPLYAVARIETYOFINCENTIVESCHEMESTOATTRACTFOREIGNINVESTMENTHANSON2001YETSOMEEMERGINGECONOMIESHAVEFOLLOWEDAMUCHMOREGRADUALAPPROACHINLIBERALIZINGTHEINFLOWO
5、FFOREIGNCAPITALCHINA,FORINSTANCE,STARTEDOPENINGUPSOMEOFITSCOASTALAREASATTHEENDOFTHE1970S,FOLLOWINGDENGXIAOPENGSOPENDOORPOLICY,ANDHASSINCETHENCONTINUEDTOLIBERALIZEINWARDFDIINAPIECEMEALFASHIONCHUNLAI1997THISSLOWDISMANTLINGOFRESTRICTIONSHASBEENJUSTIFIEDASAWAYOFLIMITINGINTERNALOPPOSITIONTOTHEREFORMPROCE
6、SSLAFFONTANDQIAN1999ITMAYALSOREFLECTATRIALANDERRORAPPROACHTOLIBERALIZATIONJIA1994OTHERREASONSMAYALSOWARRANTACAUTIOUSLIBERALIZATIONOFCAPITALINFLOWSFORINSTANCE,FDIMAYCOMPETELOCALINDUSTRYOUTOFTHEMARKET,REDUCINGTHEHOSTCOUNTRYSWELFAREGLASSANDSAGGI1999INADDITION,THEEMPIRICALQUESTFORSPILLOVERSHASBECOMEINCR
7、EASINGLYELUSIVEINRECENTYEARS,FURTHERWEAKENINGTHECASEFORSUBSIDIZINGANDPROMOTINGFDIAITKENANDHARRISON1999THECONTRIBUTIONOFOURPAPERISTOPROVIDEANOVELRATIONALEFORTHEGRADUALLIBERALIZATIONOFINWARDFDIWECLAIMTHATTHEVERYPRESENCEOFPOSITIVESPILLOVERSMAYREQUIRETEMPORARILYRESTRICTINGFOREIGNINVESTMENT2THISCONTRASTS
8、WITHTHERESULTTHATSPILLOVERSSHOULDIMPLYENCOURAGINGANDSUBSIDIZINGFOREIGNINVESTMENTWEDEVIATEFROMTHESTANDARDLITERATUREBYSHOWINGTHATINTHEPRESENCEOFSPILLOVERSGRADUALISMCANBEWELFARESUPERIORCOMPAREDWITHABIGBANGAPPROACHTHISIMPLIESTHATTHEOPTIMALPOLICYMAYREQUIREFOREIGNINVESTMENTTOBETAXEDINTHEEARLYSTAGESOFLIBER
9、ALIZATIONTHESERESULTSOBTAINONCEWETAKEINTOACCOUNTTWOFEATURESOFSPILLOVERSFIRST,TECHNOLOGYTRANSFERSANDSUBSEQUENTSPILLOVERSARELIMITEDBYTHEECONOMYSABSORPTIVECAPACITYANDSECOND,SPILLOVERSTAKETIMETOMATERIALIZEBYLETTINGCAPITALINMOREGRADUALLY,INITIALINVESTMENTHASTHETIMETOCREATESPILLOVERSANDTOUPGRADETHEECONOMY
10、SABSORPTIVECAPACITYBEFOREFURTHERINVESTMENTOCCURSTHISALLOWSSUBSEQUENTCAPITALINFLOWSTOBENEFITFROMGREATERTECHNOLOGYTRANSFERSASARESULT,THEECONOMYCONVERGESTOASTEADYSTATEWITHASUPERIORTECHNOLOGYANDAGREATERCAPITALSTOCKITMAYTHEREFOREPAYOFFTORESTRICTFOREIGNINVESTMENTINTHEINITIALSTAGESOFLIBERALIZATIONAGAIN,THE
11、CHINESEEXPERIENCECANSERVEASMOTIVATIONTHOUGHTHEREASONSBEHINDCHINESEGRADUALISMAREDIVERSEANDCOMPLEX,SOMEFEATURESOFHOWCHINAOPENEDUPTOFOREIGNINVESTMENTLENDSUPPORTTOOURDESCRIPTIONASPOINTEDOUTBYJIA1994,CHINASTARTEDBYALLOWINGFDIINTOSOMEOFITSCOASTALCITIES,BECAUSEITWASBELIEVEDTHOSEAREASWEREBESTPREPAREDTOBENEF
12、ITFROMTECHNOLOGYTRANSFERSITWASHOPEDTHATTHOSENEWTECHNOLOGIESWOULDTHENDIFFUSEFROMTHECOASTLINEINTOTHEHINTERLANDANDTHEINTERIORPROVINCESASTHISPROCESSTOOKPLACE,MOREAREASWEREOPENEDUPTOFDIINOTHERWORDS,CHINAFOLLOWEDASTEPWISESTRATEGYITFIRSTCHANNELLEDFDITOTHOSEAREASWITHPRESUMABLYTHEHIGHESTPOTENTIALTOATTRACTNEW
13、TECHNOLOGIESITTHENLETTHEHINTERLANDUPGRADEITSABSORPTIVECAPACITYTHROUGHAPROCESSOFTECHNOLOGYDIFFUSIONINTHEMEANTIMELARGERANDLARGERAREASWERELIBERALIZED,STARTINGATTHECOASTANDGRADUALLYMOVINGINLANDSEEJIA1994,CHAP4OURSIMPLETHEORETICALMODELHASTHEFOLLOWINGFEATURESWECONSIDERAONESECTORSMALLOPENECONOMYTHEREISNODO
14、MESTICCAPITALACCUMULATIONANDNOPOPULATIONGROWTHTIMEISDISCRETEFOREIGNINVESTMENTBRINGSTECHNOLOGYTRANSFERS,WHICHLEADTOANECONOMYWIDEEXTERNALITYWITHAONEPERIODLAGTHESIZEOFTHEEXTERNALITYISLIMITEDBYTHEECONOMYSLEVELOFDEVELOPMENTATTHETIMETHEINVESTMENTCOMESINTECHNOLOGICALPROGRESSISVIEWEDASAPUREEXTERNALITYWECOMP
15、ARETHEDECENTRALIZEDSOLUTIONTOTHEPLANNERSSOLUTION,ANDSHOWTHATGRADUALLIBERALIZATIONMAYBEWELFAREIMPROVINGTHEARGUMENTFORRESTRICTINGCAPITALINFLOWSCANBESPLITINTOTHREEDIFFERENTSTEPSTHEFIRSTSTEPISTOSHOWTHATAGIVENAMOUNTOFFOREIGNCAPITALLEADSTOABIGGERIMPROVEMENTINTECHNOLOGYIFITCOMESINMOREGRADUALLYFOREXAMPLE,CO
16、NSIDERANECONOMYTHATRECEIVES10UNITSOFFOREIGNINVESTMENTIFALL10UNITSENTERINTHEFIRSTPERIOD,THETECHNOLOGYTRANSFERSWILLBELIMITEDBYTHEHOSTCOUNTRYSABSORPTIVECAPACITYATTHEBEGINNINGOFTHEFIRSTPERIODIF,INSTEAD,THE10UNITSENTEROVERTWOPERIODS,THEFIRST5UNITSUPGRADETHEECONOMYSABSORPTIVECAPACITYBYTHEBEGINNINGOFTHESEC
17、ONDPERIOD,SOTHATTHELAST5UNITSAREABLETOBENEFITFROMGREATERTECHNOLOGYTRANSFERSASARESULT,THEECONOMYSTECHNOLOGYIMPROVESMOREIFTHE10UNITSCOMEINOVERTWOPERIODSTHESECONDSTEPISTOSHOWTHATGRADUALLIBERALIZATIONLEADSTOASTEADYSTATEWITHAMOREADVANCEDTECHNOLOGYANDAGREATERCAPITALSTOCKTHISISEASYTOSEEIFTHEGRADUALINFLOWOF
18、AGIVENAMOUNTOFFOREIGNCAPITALBRINGSGREATERTECHNOLOGICALPROGRESS,THERETURNSTOCAPITALWILLALSOBEGREATERIFTHESAMECAPITALSTOCKCANSUSTAINHIGHERRETURNS,THENTHESAMERETURNSCANSUSTAINABIGGERCAPITALSTOCKASARESULT,WHENTHEECONOMYSRETURNSTOCAPITALCONVERGETOTHEWORLDINTERESTRATEANDASTEADYSTATEISREACHED,BOTHTHETECHNO
19、LOGYLEVELANDTHECAPITALSTOCKWILLBEGREATERTHETHIRDSTEPISTOSHOWTHATTEMPORARYRESTRICTIONSONFOREIGNINVESTMENTMAYBENECESSARYTOENSURETHEOPTIMALOUTCOMETHETRADEOFFBETWEENFASTERSHORTRUNGROWTHWITHLOWERSTEADYSTATETECHNOLOGYANDCAPITALANDSLOWERSHORTRUNGROWTHWITHHIGHERSTEADYSTATETECHNOLOGYANDCAPITALWOULDBEOFNOPOLI
20、CYCONCERNIFITWERENOTFORTHEEXISTENCEOFEXTERNALITIESBUTGIVENTHATTECHNOLOGYTRANSFERSLEADTOECONOMYWIDELEARNINGEXTERNALITIES,PRIVATEAGENTSMAYNOTHAVETHERIGHTINCENTIVESTOTIMETHEIRINVESTMENTSINASOCIALLYOPTIMALWAYINTHATCASETHESOCIALPLANNERMAYNEEDTOINTERVENEBYTEMPORARILYRESTRICTINGCAPITALINFLOWSAFTERANALYTICA
21、LLYPROVINGTHATGRADUALLIBERALIZATIONMAYBEWELFAREIMPROVINGCOMPAREDWITHTHEBIGBANGAPPROACH,WEQUANTITATIVELYSHOWTHATTHEPAYOFFSFROMGRADUALISMINEMERGINGECONOMIESAREPOTENTIALLYLARGETOREACHTHISCONCLUSION,WEFIRSTCALIBRATETHEPARAMETERSINTHEMODELUSINGDATAONFDIINFLOWSANDTOTALFACTORPRODUCTIVITYTFPFORASAMPLEOF90CO
22、UNTRIESBETWEEN1970AND2000WETHENSOLVETHEMODELNUMERICALLYANDCOMPARETHEPREDICTEDEFFECTSONTFPUNDERBIGBANGANDGRADUALISMFORASUBSAMPLEOFLATINAMERICANANDSOUTHEASTASIANECONOMIESFORTHEPERIOD19702000WEFINDTHATCUMULATIVETFPGROWTH,RELATIVETOTHETECHNOLOGYFRONTIER,WAS8UNDERGRADUALISM,COMPAREDWITH22UNDERBIGBANGTHEP
23、REDICTEDTFPGAINSFROMGRADUALISMARETHUSSUBSTANTIALADDITIONALLY,WEALSOSHOWTHATOURGRADUALISMSIMULATIONSAREABLETOACCOUNTFOR57OFTFPGROWTHAND70OFFDIINFLOWSINTHEDATA二、THEMODELCONSIDERASMALLONESECTORECONOMYWITHINITIALLYACLOSEDCAPITALMARKETTIMEISDISCRETETHEECONOMYISPOPULATEDBYALARGENUMBEROFIDENTICALAGENTSFORC
24、ONVENIENCE,THEIRNUMBERISNORMALIZEDTO1EACHAGENTISENDOWEDWITHONEUNITOFLABOURANDAFIXEDAMOUNTOFCAPITALK0THEREPRESENTATIVEAGENTHASTHEFOLLOWINGUTILITYFUNCTIONWHERECTISCONSUMPTIONFIRMSAREPERFECTLYCOMPETITIVEANDUSEACOBBDOUGLASTECHNOLOGYWHEREKTANDLTARETHECAPITALANDLABOURINPUTS,ANDATISTHETECHNOLOGYLEVELINTHEC
25、LOSEDECONOMYTHEREISNOCAPITALACCUMULATIONANDNOTECHNOLOGICALPROGRESSPROPERTY1THESETOFTECHNOLOGIESTHATCANBETRANSFERREDTHROUGHFOREIGNINVESTMENTATTIMETISLIMITEDBYTHEHOSTCOUNTRYSABSORPTIVECAPACITY,MEASUREDBYITSTECHNOLOGYLEVELATTHEBEGINNINGOFTIMETPROPERTY2TECHNOLOGYTRANSFERSDUETOFOREIGNINVESTMENTATTIMETCAU
26、SEPOSITIVESPILLOVERSATTIMET1PROPERTIES1AND2ALLOWUSTOPOSTULATETHEFOLLOWINGECONOMYWIDETECHNOLOGYFUNCTIONWHEREANDAREEXOGENOUSLYGIVENPARAMETERSANDKTISTHEECONOMYSAGGREGATECAPITALSTOCKATTIMETANEXAMPLEWILLHELPTOHIGHLIGHTTHEFEATURESOFTHISFUNCTIONINPERIODTTHEHOSTECONOMYSTECHNOLOGYLEVELISATFOREIGNINVESTMENTIN
27、PERIODT,KTKT1,BRINGSINTECHNOLOGYTRANSFERS,THATIMPROVETHEECONOMYSTECHNOLOGYAT1INPERIODT1BECAUSEABSORPTIVECAPACITYLIMITSTHETECHNOLOGIESTHATCANBETRANSFERRED,AT1HASANUPPERBOUNDAT1ASCANBESEEN,THISUPPERBOUNDAT1MEANSTHATTHETECHNOLOGYCANNEVERIMPROVEBYMORETHANBETWEENANYTWOPERIODSTANDT1,WITHOUTOFCOURSEEVERSUR
28、PASSINGTHEWORLDTECHNOLOGYFRONTIERAITISIMPORTANTTOREALIZETHATBECAUSESPILLOVERSAREMODELLEDASAPUREEXTERNALITY,ALLFIRMSSHARETHESAMETECHNOLOGYLEVEL21THEDECENTRALIZEDSOLUTIONBIGBANGLIBERALIZATIONWESTARTBYDESCRIBINGTHEDYNAMICSOFTHEBIGBANGAPPROACHTHISREFERSTOTHECOMPLETEANDIMMEDIATELIBERALIZATIONOFINWARDFDIS
29、INCETHEREISNOGOVERNMENTINTERVENTION,THISCANBETHOUGHTOFASTHEDECENTRALIZEDSOLUTIONGIVENTHATTECHNOLOGICALPROGRESSISAPUREEXTERNALITY,NONAPPROPRIABLEBYFIRMSANDAFFECTINGTHEENTIREECONOMY,INEACHPERIODCAPITALFLOWSINUNTILTHEHOSTCOUNTRYSMARGINALRETURNSTOCAPITALAREEQUALTOTHEWORLDINTERESTRATEWEASSUMETHATALLRESTR
30、ICTIONSONCAPITALINFLOWSARELIFTEDATTIMET1IFR1ISGREATERTHANR,FOREIGNINVESTMENTCOMESINUNTILRETURNSEQUALIZEBYTHEBEGINNINGOFPERIODT2THEECONOMYHASLEARNEDHOWTOUSETHETECHNOLOGIESTRANSFERREDBYFOREIGNINVESTMENTINPERIODT1THISTECHNOLOGICALPROGRESSRAISESTHEHOSTCOUNTRYSRETURNSONCEAGAINABOVER,THUSATTRACTINGAFRESHI
31、NFLOWOFFOREIGNINVESTMENTTHISPROCESSCONTINUESUNTILTHEECONOMYCONVERGESTOASTEADYSTATEFORAGIVENINITIALLEVELOFTECHNOLOGYA1ANDANINITIALAGGREGATESTOCKOFCAPITALK0,WECANEASILYSOLVEFORTHEPATHOFCAPITALSTOCKSANDTECHNOLOGYLEVELSINEACHPERIODTFOREIGNINVESTMENTENTERSUNTILTHEMARGINALRETURNTOCAPITALEQUALIZESTHEWORLDI
32、NTERESTRATETHIS,COMBINEDWITHTHETECHNOLOGYFUNCTION3ANDTHEINITIALCONDITIONSA1ANDK0ASSUMINGACOMPETITIVELABOURMARKET,THEWAGERATEWTISTHEREPRESENTATIVEAGENTTHENSOLVESTHEFOLLOWINGOPTIMIZATIONPROBLEMK0GIVEN22THEPLANNERSSOLUTIONGRADUALLIBERALIZATION221OPTIMALPATHOFFOREIGNINVESTMENTUSINGQUOTASINTHISEXERCISETH
33、ESOCIALPLANNERDETERMINESTHEOPTIMALPATHOFFOREIGNCAPITALINFLOWSUSINGQUOTASINOTHERWORDS,FOREACHPERIODAMAXIMUMAMOUNTOFFOREIGNINVESTMENTISANNOUNCEDASSOONASTHEQUOTAFORAGIVENPERIODISREACHED,NOFURTHERCAPITALISALLOWEDTOENTERTODETERMINETHESEQUOTAS,THEPLANNERSOLVESTHEFOLLOWINGMAXIMIZATIONPROBLEM,K0,A1GIVENWHER
34、EUPPERCASECTREFERSTOAGGREGATECONSUMPTIONACCORDINGTO5,THEPLANNERCHOOSESTHESEQUENCEOFCONSUMPTION,CAPITALSTOCK,ANDTECHNOLOGYTHATMAXIMIZESTHEDISCOUNTEDSUMOFPERIODUTILITYHOWEVER,BYSUBSTITUTINGTHEFIRSTANDTHESECONDCONSTRAINTINTOTHEOBJECTIVEFUNCTION,ITSHOULDBEOBVIOUSTHATTHESOCIALPLANNERSPROBLEMREDUCESTOCHOO
35、SINGTHESEQUENCEOFCAPITALSTOCKSNOTE,FURTHERMORE,FROMTHETHIRDCONSTRAINTTHATTHEDOMESTICRETURNTOCAPITALCANNOTFALLBELOWTHEWORLDINTERESTRATEIFTECHNOLOGICALPROGRESSTAKESTHEFORMOFANEXTERNALITYNONAPPROPRIABLEBYFIRMS,THENUNDERCOMPLETECAPITALMARKETLIBERALIZATIONFOREIGNINVESTMENTCOMESINUNTILRETURNSEQUALIZECONSE
36、QUENTLY,QUOTASCANNEVERCAUSERETURNSTODROPBELOWTHOSEINTHERESTOFTHEWORLD222OPTIMALPATHOFFOREIGNINVESTMENTUSINGTAXESTHESOCIALPLANNERSMAXIMIZATIONPROBLEMCANTHEREFOREBEWRITTENASK0,A1GIVENSINCETAXINGDOMESTICCAPITALDOESNOTAFFECTDOMESTICINCOME,THEFIRSTCONSTRAINTINCLUDESONLYTAXPROCEEDSCOMINGFROMTHEFOREIGNOWNE
37、DCAPITALSTOCKTHESECONDCONSTRAINTISOBVIOUSTHETHIRDCONSTRAINTSAYSTHATTHENETRETURNTOCAPITALSHOULDEQUALTHEWORLDINTERESTRATESINCETAXESAPPLYTOTHEENTIRECAPITALSTOCK,FOREIGNERSINVESTUNTILRETURNSEQUALIZETHEFOURTHCONSTRAINTSAYSTHATTAXESSHOULDBEPOSITIVEASINTHEEXERCISEWITHQUOTAS,THEFIRSTANDTHESECONDCONSTRAINTIM
38、PLYTHATTHEPLANNERSPROBLEMAMOUNTSTOCHOOSINGHOWMUCHCAPITALTOLETINBYSETTINGTHETAXRATESINEACHPERIOD3CONCLUSIONTHISPAPERHASPRESENTEDANOVELRATIONALEFORTHEGRADUALLIBERALIZATIONOFINWARDFDIBYSHOWINGTHATTHEPRESENCEOFSPILLOVERSMAYREQUIRETEMPORARILYRESTRICTINGTHEINFLOWOFFOREIGNCAPITALTHISSTANDSINCONTRASTTOTHEST
39、ANDARDARGUMENT,WHICHCLAIMSTHATSPILLOVERSSHOULDCALLFORTHEPROMOTION,RATHERTHANTHERESTRICTION,OFFOREIGNINVESTMENTOURRESULTISACONSEQUENCEOFINCORPORATINGTWOFEATURESOFSPILLOVERSINTOASIMPLEMODELFIRST,THEEXTENTOFTECHNOLOGYTRANSFERSANDSUBSEQUENTSPILLOVERSISLIMITEDBYTHEHOSTCOUNTRYSABSORPTIVECAPACITYSECOND,SPI
40、LLOVERSTAKETIMETOMATERIALIZEASARESULT,IFFOREIGNINVESTMENTENTERSGRADUALLY,ITHASTHETIMETOCREATESPILLOVERS,ANDUPGRADETHECOUNTRYSABSORPTIVECAPACITY,BEFOREMORECAPITALCOMESINSUBSEQUENTCAPITALINFLOWSWILLTHENBENEFITFROMGREATERSPILLOVERSTHISMEANSTHATAGIVENAMOUNTOFFOREIGNINVESTMENTLEADSTOMORETECHNOLOGICALPROG
41、RESSIFITENTERSMOREGRADUALLYCOMPAREDWITHCOMPLETECAPITALMARKETLIBERALIZATION,RESTRICTINGFOREIGNINVESTMENTLEADSTOASTEADYSTATEWITHABIGGERCAPITALSTOCKANDASUPERIORTECHNOLOGYQUANTITATIVELY,WESHOWTHEGAINSFROMGRADUALISMONTFPTOBELARGEINASAMPLEOFEASTASIANANDLATINAMERICANECONOMIESUNDERCOMPLETELIBERALIZATION,WEF
42、INDTHATCUMULATIVETFPGROWTH,RELATIVETOTHETECHNOLOGYFRONTIER,IS22FORTHEPERIOD19702000WHENQUOTASAREINTRODUCEDINTHEEARLYPHASESOFLIBERALIZATION,THECUMULATIVETFPGROWTHINCREASESTO80USINGTARIFFS,RATHERTHANQUOTAS,GIVESANEVENHIGHERNUMBEROF90WEVIEWTHESERESULTSASEVIDENCETHATGRADUALISMMATTERSTHISPAPERSUGGESTSANU
43、MBEROFAREASFORFUTURERESEARCHFIRST,WEHAVECONSIDEREDMARKETSTOBEPERFECTLYCOMPETITIVE,INSPITEOFFDIOFTENBEINGDOMINATEDBYLARGEFIRMSMOREOVER,THEMICROFOUNDATIONSOFSPILLOVERSHAVENOTBEENEXPLICITLYMODELLEDINCORPORATINGTHESEELEMENTSINTOACALIBRATEDMODELTOFURTHEREXPLORETHERELATIONBETWEENFOREIGNINVESTMENTANDPRODUC
44、TIVITYSHOULDBEUSEFULSECOND,OURNUMERICALSIMULATIONSPROVIDEEVIDENCEOFTHEPOSITIVEEFFECTOFGRADUALISMONTFPHOWEVER,THEYDONOTCONSTITUTEATESTOFTHETHEORETICALMODELSUCHATESTWOULDREQUIREQUANTITATIVEINFORMATIONONTHESPEEDOFLIBERALIZATIONOFFDIINDIFFERENTCOUNTRIESALTHOUGHSOMEEVIDENCEEXISTSFORALIMITEDNUMBEROFOECDCO
45、UNTRIES,NOCOMPREHENSIVETIMESERIESDATAAREAVAILABLEFORABROADSETOFEMERGINGECONOMIES译文外国直接投资和溢出效应渐进主义可能会更好摘要一般理论认为应积极吸引外国直接投资，促进其积极溢出效应的形成。与此相反，本文认为可能通过暂时限制外商直接投资才能保证其溢出效应的形成。我们的论点是基于溢出效应的两个特点一是溢出效应受限于经济的吸收能力，二是溢出效应的实现需要时间。通过逐步引进资本，初始投资才有时间在进一步的投资之前产生溢出效应，进而提升经济的吸收能力。经济才得以稳定在一个具有高技术和大资本存量的状态。一、简介一般理论认为应
46、吸引外国直接投资，促进其积极溢出效应的形成。根据这个观点，经济转型必须实施高度的外资自由化，而且需要采取额外的财政措施以确保大力度的外国投资的引入。这种关于溢出效益的观点促使世界各国实行各种奖励措施以吸引外国投资（HASON,2001）。然而，一些新兴经济体采取了更加循序渐进的方式来吸引外资。例如中国，在70年代末根据邓小平的“开放政策”开始开放其沿海一些地区。自那时起，再逐步放宽外商直接投资的限制CHUNLAI，1997。这种逐步放宽限制的做法被认为是一种限制内部反对的改革方法LAFFONT、QIAN，1999。这也反映了一种逐步实现自由化的试错方式JIA，1994。在资本自由流入的过程中可
47、能还需要谨慎地考虑其他原因。例如，外国直接投资与当地企业的竞争可能导致本地企业退出市场，导致东道国的福利减少GLASS、SAGGI，1999。另外，近年来对溢出效应的实证追求越来越难以捉摸，这就进一步削弱了吸引外资的力度AITKEN、HARRISON，1999。本文的贡献在于提供了一个逐步放宽外国直接投资限制的新理论。我们认为吸引外资过程中需要暂时限制外国投资才能实现外商直接投资的积极溢出效应。这与应鼓励和吸引外国投资以促进溢出效应形成的结论相反。我们通过证明逐步吸引外资可以比爆炸式的吸引外资获取更多的福利来反对一般理论。这意味着，最佳的吸引外资政策可能需要在自由化的初期阶段对外国投资进行征税
48、。我们考虑到溢出效应的两个特点才得出这些结果第一，技术转移带来的溢出效应受经济的吸收能力的限制；第二，溢出效应的实现需要时间。通过逐步引进资本，初始投资才有时间在进一步的投资之前产生溢出效应，进而提升经济的吸收能力。经济才得以稳定在一个具有卓越的技术和更大的资本存量的状态。这样就可以弥补在自由化的初期阶段对外资限制的损失。再次提出，中国的经验可以作为一个目标，尽管中国采取逐步的吸引外资政策的原因是多样和复杂的，但中国向外国直接投资开放的某些特点支持了我们的描述。由于JIA1994提出了这一点，中国开始允许外商直接投资进入一些沿海城市是因为这些城市被认为已经做好了从技术转让中受益的准备。中国希望
49、在沿海地区吸收了先进技术后，再将新技术扩散到内陆省份。在这个政策实施的过程中，越来越多的区域对外资开放。换句话说，中国实行了渐进的吸引外资战略。中国首先引导最有潜力的地区吸引外商直接投资以吸引新技术，然后通过技术的扩散来实现腹地的技术升级。在此期间沿海和内陆越来越多的领域逐步开放JIA，1994。我们建立的简单的理论模型具有以下特点。我们假设一个单部门的小型开放经济体系，没有任何国内资本积累和人口增长，时间系数是离散的。外资引起的技术转移导致整个经济的外部性。外部性的程度受投资时的经济发展水平的限制。技术进步被视为一个纯粹的外部性因素。我们把无规划的解决方案与有规划的解决方案相比较，得出逐步自由化会促进福利增加的结论。限制资本流入的论点可分成三个不同的部分。第一部分显示采用逐步吸收外国资本的方式会引起较大的技术改进。例如，想象一个经济体收到10个单位的外国投资。如果10单位的外国投资在第一阶段一次性投入，技术溢出效应就会被东道国在第一阶段的吸收能力限制。如果这10单位外资分两个阶段投入，前5单位外资在第二阶段开始时已经提升了经济体的吸收能力，以至于后5单位外资能从技术转移中获得更多收益。因此，如果10单位外资分两阶段投入的话，经济体的技术能得到更多提升。第二个部分表明了逐步实现引进外资
