1、毕业论文外文翻译原文SUPPLYCHAINRISKMANAGEMENTDLOLSONANDDWUGLOBALCOMPETITION,TECHNOLOGICALCHANGE,ANDCONTINUALSEARCHFORCOMPETITIVEADVANTAGEHAVEMOTIVATEDRISKMANAGEMENTINSUPPLYCHAINS1SUPPLYCHAINSAREOFTENCOMPLEXSYSTEMSOFNETWORKS,REACHINGHUNDREDSORTHOUSANDSOFPARTICIPANTSFROMAROUNDTHEGLOBEINSOMECASESWALMARTORDELLTHE
2、TERMHASBEENUSEDBOTHATTHESTRATEGICLEVELCOORDINATIONANDCOLLABORATIONANDTACTICALLEVELMANAGEMENTOFLOGISTICSACROSSFUNCTIONSANDBETWEENBUSINESSES2INTHISSENSE,RISKMANAGEMENTCANFOCUSONIDENTIFICATIONOFBETTERWAYSANDMEANSOFACCOMPLISHINGORGANIZATIONALOBJECTIVESRATHERTHANSIMPLYPRESERVATIONOFASSETSORRISKAVOIDANCES
3、UPPLYCHAINRISKMANAGEMENTISINTERESTEDINCOORDINATIONANDCOLLABORATIONOFPROCESSESANDACTIVITIESACROSSFUNCTIONSWITHINANETWORKOFORGANIZATIONSTANGPROVIDEDAFRAMEWORKOFRISKMANAGEMENTPERSPECTIVESINSUPPLYCHAINS3SUPPLYCHAINSENABLEMANUFACTURINGOUTSOURCINGTOTAKEADVANTAGESOFGLOBALRELATIVEADVANTAGES,ASWELLASINCREASE
4、PRODUCTVARIETYTHEREAREMANYRISKSINHERENTINTHISMOREOPEN,DYNAMICSYSTEMSUPPLYCHAINRISKMANAGEMENTPROCESSONEVIEWOFASUPPLYCHAINRISKMANAGEMENTPROCESSINCLUDESSTEPSFORRISKIDENTIFICATION,RISKASSESSMENT,RISKAVOIDANCE,ANDRISKMITIGATION4THESESTRUCTURESFORHANDLINGRISKARECOMPATIBLEWITHTANGSLISTGIVENABOVE,BUTFOCUSON
5、THEBROADERASPECTSOFTHEPROCESSRISKIDENTIFICATIONRISKSINSUPPLYCHAINSCANINCLUDEOPERATIONALRISKSANDDISRUPTIONSOPERATIONALRISKSINVOLVEINHERENTUNCERTAINTIESFORSUPPLYCHAINELEMENTSSUCHASCUSTOMERDEMAND,SUPPLY,ANDCOSTDISRUPTIONRISKSCOMEFROMDISASTERSNATURALINTHEFORMOFFLOODS,HURRICANES,ETCMANMADEINTHEFORMOFTERR
6、ORISTATTACKSORWARSANDFROMECONOMICCRISESCURRENCYREEVALUATIONS,STRIKES,SHIFTINGMARKETPRICESMOSTQUANTITATIVEANALYSESANDMETHODSAREFOCUSEDONOPERATIONALRISKSDISRUPTIONSAREMOREDRAMATIC,LESSPREDICTABLE,ANDTHUSAREMUCHMOREDIFFICULTTOMODELRISKMANAGEMENTPLANNINGANDRESPONSEFORDISRUPTIONAREUSUALLYQUALITATIVERISKA
7、SSESSMENTTHEORETICALLY,RISKHASBEENVIEWEDASAPPLYINGTOTHOSECASESWHEREODDSAREKNOWN,ANDUNCERTAINTYTOTHOSECASESWHEREODDSARENOTKNOWNRISKISAPREFERABLEBASISFORDECISIONMAKING,BUTLIFEOFTENPRESENTSDECISIONMAKERSWITHCASESOFUNCERTAINTYTHEISSUEISFURTHERCOMPLICATEDINTHATPERFECTLYRATIONALDECISIONMAKERSMAYHAVERADICA
8、LLYDIFFERENTAPPROACHESTORISKQUALITATIVERISKMANAGEMENTDEPENDSAGREATDEALONMANAGERIALATTITUDETOWARDSRISKDIFFERENTRATIONALINDIVIDUALSARELIKELYTOHAVEDIFFERENTRESPONSETORISKAVOIDANCE,WHICHUSUALLYISINVERSELYRELATEDTORETURN,THUSLEADINGTOATRADEOFFDECISIONRESEARCHINTOCOGNITIVEPSYCHOLOGYHASFOUNDTHATMANAGERSARE
9、OFTENINSENSITIVETOPROBABILITYESTIMATESOFPOSSIBLEOUTCOMES,ANDTENDTOIGNOREPOSSIBLEEVENTSTHATTHEYCONSIDERTOBEUNLIKELY5FURTHERMORE,MANAGERSTENDTOPAYLITTLEATTENTIONTOUNCERTAINTYINVOLVEDWITHPOSITIVEOUTCOMES6THEYTENDTOFOCUSONCRITICALPERFORMANCETARGETS,WHICHMAKESTHEIRRESPONSETORISKCONTINGENTUPONCONTEXT7SOME
10、APPROACHESTOTHEORETICALDECISIONMAKINGPREFEROBJECTIVETREATMENTOFRISKTHROUGHQUANTITATIVESCIENTIFICMEASURESFOLLOWINGNORMATIVEIDEASOFHOWHUMANSSHOULDMAKEDECISIONSBUSINESSINVOLVESANUNTHEORETICALCONSTRUCT,HOWEVER,WITHHIGHLEVELSOFUNCERTAINTYDATANOTAVAILABLEANDCONSIDERATIONOFMULTIPLEOFTENCONFLICTINGFACTORS,M
11、AKINGQUALITATIVEAPPROACHESBASEDUPONPERCEIVEDMANAGERIALRISKMOREAPPROPRIATEBECAUSEACCURATEMEASURESOFFACTORSSUCHASPROBABILITYAREOFTENLACKING,ROBUSTSTRATEGIESMORELIKELYTOENABLEEFFECTIVERESPONSEUNDERAWIDERANGEOFCIRCUMSTANCESAREOFTENATTRACTIVETORISKMANAGERSSTRATEGIESAREEFFICIENTIFTHEYENABLEAFIRMTODEALWITH
12、OPERATIONALRISKSEFFICIENTLYREGARDLESSOFMAJORDISRUPTIONSSTRATEGIESARERESILIENTIFTHEYENABLEAFIRMTOKEEPOPERATINGDESPITEMAJORDISRUPTIONSSUPPLYCHAINRISKCANARISEFROMMANYSOURCES,INCLUDINGTHEFOLLOWING8POLITICALEVENTSPRODUCTAVAILABILITYDISTANCEFROMSOURCEINDUSTRYCAPACITYDEMANDFLUCTUATIONCHANGESINTECHNOLOGYCHA
13、NGESINLABORMARKETSFINANCIALINSTABILITYMANAGEMENTTURNOVERRISKAVOIDANCETHEOLDESTFORMOFRISKAVOIDANCEISPROBABLYINSURANCE,PURCHASINGSOMELEVELOFFINANCIALSECURITYFROMANUNDERWRITERTHISFOCUSESONTHEFINANCIALASPECTSOFRISK,ANDISREACTIVE,PROVIDINGSOMERECOVERYAFTERANEGATIVEEXPERIENCEINSURANCEISNOTTHEONLYFORMOFRIS
14、KMANAGEMENTUSEDINSUPPLYCHAINSDELTAAIRLINESINSURANCEPREMIUMSFORTERRORISMINCREASEDFROM2MILLIONIN2001TO152MILLIONIN20029INSURANCEFOCUSESONFINANCIALRISKSOTHERMAJORRISKSINCLUDELOSSOFCUSTOMERSDUETOSUPPLYCHANGEDISRUPTIONSUPPLYCHAINRISKSCANBEBUFFEREDBYAVARIETYOFMETHODSPURCHASINGISUSUALLYASSIGNEDTHERESPONSIB
15、ILITYOFCONTROLLINGCOSTSANDASSURINGCONTINUITYOFSUPPLYBUFFERSINTHEFORMOFINVENTORIESEXISTTOPROVIDESOMERISKREDUCTION,ATACOSTOFHIGHERINVENTORYHOLDINGCOSTGIUNIPEROANDALELTANTAWYCOMPAREDTRADITIONALPRACTICESWITHNEWERRISKMANAGEMENTAPPROACHES10THETRADITIONALPRACTICE,RELYINGUPONEXTRAINVENTORY,MULTIPLESUPPLIERS
16、,EXPEDITING,ANDFREQUENTSUPPLIERCHANGESSUFFEREDFROMHIGHTRANSACTIONCOSTS,LONGPURCHASEFULFILLMENTCYCLETIMES,ANDEXPENSIVERUSHORDERSRISKMANAGEMENTAPPROACHES,DRAWINGUPONPRACTICESSUCHASSUPPLYCHAINALLIANCES,EPROCUREMENT,JUSTINTIMEDELIVERY,INCREASEDCOORDINATIONANDOTHERTECHNIQUES,PROVIDESMOREVISIBILITYINSUPPL
17、YCHAINOPERATIONSTHEREMAYBEHIGHERPRICESINCURREDFORGOODS,ANDINCREASEDSECURITYISSUES,BUTMETHODSHAVEBEENDEVELOPEDTOPROVIDESOUNDELECTRONICBUSINESSSECURITYRISKMITIGATIONTANGPROVIDEDFOURBASICRISKMITIGATIONAPPROACHESFORSUPPLYCHAINS11THESEFOCUSONTHESOURCESOFRISKMANAGEMENTOFUNCERTAINTYWITHRESPECTTOSUPPLY,TODE
18、MAND,TOPRODUCTMANAGEMENT,ANDINFORMATIONMANAGEMENTFURTHERMORE,THEREAREBOTHSTRATEGICANDTACTICALASPECTSINVOLVEDSTRATEGICALLY,NETWORKDESIGNCANENABLEBETTERCONTROLOFSUPPLYRISKSSTRATEGIESSUCHASPRODUCTPRICINGANDROLLOVERSCANCONTROLDEMANDTOADEGREEGREATERPRODUCTVARIETYCANSTRATEGICALLYPROTECTAGAINSTPRODUCTRISKS
19、ANDSYSTEMSPROVIDINGGREATERINFORMATIONVISIBILITYACROSSSUPPLYCHAINMEMBERSCANENABLEBETTERCOPINGWITHRISKSTACTICALDECISIONSINCLUDESUPPLIERSELECTIONANDORDERALLOCATIONINCLUDINGCONTRACTUALARRANGEMENTSDEMANDCONTROLOVERTIME,MARKETS,ANDPRODUCTSPRODUCTPROMOTIONANDINFORMATIONSHARING,VENDORMANAGEDINVENTORYSYSTEMS
20、,ANDCOLLABORATIVEPLANNING,FORECASTING,ANDREPLENISHMENTSUPPLYMANAGEMENTAVARIETYOFSUPPLIERRELATIONSHIPSAREPOSSIBLE,VARYINGTHEDEGREEOFLINKAGEBETWEENVENDORANDCOREORGANIZATIONSDIFFERENTTYPESOFCONTRACTSANDINFORMATIONEXCHANGEAREPOSSIBLE,ANDDIFFERENTSCHEMESFORPRICINGANDCOORDINATINGSCHEDULESSUPPLIERSELECTION
21、PROCESSSUPPLIERVENDOREVALUATIONISAVERYIMPORTANTOPERATIONALDECISIONTHEREAREDECISIONSSELECTINGWHICHSUPPLIERSTOEMPLOY,ASWELLASDECISIONSWITHRESPECTTOQUANTITIESTOORDERFROMEACHSUPPLIERWITHTHEINCREASEINOUTSOURCINGANDTHEOPPORTUNITIESPROVIDEDBYELECTRONICBUSINESSTOTAPWORLDWIDEMARKETS,THESEDECISIONSAREBECOMING
22、EVERMORECOMPLEXTHEPRESENCEOFMULTIPLECRITERIAINTHESEDECISIONSHASLONGBEENRECOGNIZED12APROBABILISTICMODELFORTHISDECISIONHASBEENPUBLISHEDTOINCLUDETHEFOLLOWINGCRITERIA131QUALITYPERSONNEL2QUALITYPROCEDURE3CONCERNFORQUALITY4COMPANYHISTORY5PRICERELATIVETOQUALITY6ACTUALPRICE7FINANCIALABILITY8TECHNICALPERFORM
23、ANCE9DELIVERYHISTORY10TECHNICALASSISTANCE11PRODUCTIONCAPABILITY12MANUFACTURINGEQUIPMENTSOMEOFTHESECRITERIAOVERLAP,ANDOTHERCRITERIAMAYEXISTFORSPECIFICSUPPLYCHAINDECISIONMAKERSBUTCLEARLYTHEREAREMANYIMPORTANTASPECTSTOSELECTINGSUPPLIERSSUPPLIERORDERALLOCATIONOPERATIONALRISKSINSUPPLYCHAINORDERALLOCATIONI
24、NCLUDEUNCERTAINTIESINDEMANDS,SUPPLYYIELDS,LEADTIMES,ANDCOSTSTHUSNOTONLYDOSPECIFICSUPPLIERSNEEDTOBESELECTED,THEQUANTITIESPURCHASEDFROMTHEMNEEDSTOBEDETERMINEDONARECURRINGBASISSUPPLYCHAINSPROVIDEMANYVALUABLEBENEFITSTOTHEIRMEMBERS,BUTALSOCREATEPROBLEMSOFCOORDINATIONTHATMANIFESTTHEMSELVESINTHE“BULLWHIP”E
25、FFECT14INFORMATIONSYSTEMCOORDINATIONCANREDUCESOMEOFTHENEGATIVEMANIFESTATIONSOFTHEBULLWHIPEFFECT,BUTTHERESTILLREMAINSTHEISSUEOFPROFITSHARINGDECISIONSTHATAREOPTIMALFORONESUPPLYCHAINMEMBEROFTENHAVENEGATIVEIMPACTSOFTHETOTALPROFITABILITYOFTHEENTIRESUPPLYCHAIN15DEMANDMANAGEMENTDEMANDMANAGEMENTAPPROACHESIN
26、CLUDEUSINGSTATISTICSINMODELSFORIDENTIFICATIONOFANOPTIMALPORTFOLIOOFDEMANDDISTRIBUTIONS16ANDECONOMICMODELSTOSELECTSTRATEGIESUSINGPRICEASARESPONSEMECHANISMTOCHANGEDEMAND17OTHERSTRATEGIESINCLUDESHIFTINGDEMANDOVERTIME,ACROSSMARKETS,ORACROSSPRODUCTSDEMANDMANAGEMENTOFCOURSEISONEOFTHEAIMSOFADVERTISINGANDOT
27、HERPROMOTIONALACTIVITIESHOWEVER,ITHASLONGBEENNOTEDASONEOFTHEMOSTDIFFICULTTHINGSTOPREDICTOVERTIMEPRODUCTMANAGEMENTANEFFECTIVESTRATEGYTOMANAGEPRODUCTRISKISVARIETY,WHICHCANBEUSEDTOINCREASEMARKETSHARETOSERVEDISTINCTSEGMENTSOFAMARKETTHEBASICIDEAISTODIVERSIFYPRODUCTSTOMEETTHESPECIFICNEEDSOFEACHMARKETSEGME
28、NTHOWEVER,WHILETHISWOULDBEEXPECTEDTOINCREASEREVENUESANDMARKETSHARE,ITWILLLEADTOINCREASEMANUFACTURINGCOSTSANDINVENTORYCOSTSVARIOUSWAYSTODEALWITHTHEPOTENTIALINEFFICIENCIESINPRODUCTVARIETYINCLUDEDELLSMAKETOORDERSTRATEGYSUPPLYCHAINDISRUPTIONTANGCLASSIFIEDSUPPLYCHAINVULNERABILITIESASTHOSEDUETOUNCERTAINEC
29、ONOMICCYCLES,CUSTOMERDEMAND,ANDDISASTERSLANDROVERREDUCEDTHEIRWORKFORCEBYOVERONETHOUSANDWHENAKEYSUPPLIERWENTINSOLVENTDOLEWASAFFECTEDBYHURRICANEMITCHHITTINGTHEIRBANANAPLANTATIONSINCENTRALAMERICAIN1998SEPTEMBER11,2001SUSPENDEDAIRTRAFFIC,LEADINGFORDMOTORCOMPANYTOCLOSEFIVEPLANTSFORSEVERALDAYS18MANYTHINGS
30、CANDISRUPTSUPPLYCHAINSSUPPLYCHAINDISRUPTIONSHAVEBEENFOUNDTONEGATIVELYIMPACTSTOCKRETURNSFORFIRMSSUFFERINGTHEM19SUPPLYCHAINRISKSRECENTRESEARCHINTOSUPPLYCHAINRISKCOVERSMANYTOPICSNEWTECHNOLOGYRISKGOLDAANDPHILLIPI20CONSIDEREDTECHNICALANDBUSINESSRISKCOMPONENTSOFTHESUPPLYCHAINTECHNICALRISKSRELATETOSCIENCEA
31、NDENGINEERING,ANDDEALWITHTHEUNCERTAINTIESOFRESEARCHOUTPUTBUSINESSRISKSRELATETOMARKETS,HUMANRESPONSESTOPRODUCTSAND/ORRELATEDSERVICESATINTEL,THREERISKMITIGATIONSTRATEGIESWERECONSIDEREDTODEALWITHTHERISKSASSOCIATEDWITHNEWTECHNOLOGIES1PARTNERSHIPS,WITHASSOCIATEDDECISIONSINVOLVINGWHOTOPARTNERWITH,ANDATWHA
32、TSTAGEOFPRODUCTDEVELOPMENT2PURSUEEXTENDABLESOLUTIONS,EVOLUTIONARYPRODUCTSTHATWILLCONTINUETOOFFERVALUEASNEWTECHNICALBREAKTHROUGHSAREGAINED3EVALUATEMULTIPLEOPTIONSTOENABLECOMMERCIALIZATIONPARTNERSELECTIONRISKPARTNERTOINCLUDEVENDOREVALUATIONISAVERYIMPORTANTOPERATIONALDECISIONIMPORTANTDECISIONSINCLUDEWH
33、ICHVENDORSTOEMPLOYANDQUANTITIESTOORDERFROMEACHVENDORWITHTHEINCREASEINOUTSOURCINGANDTHEOPPORTUNITIESPROVIDEDBYELECTRONICBUSINESSTOTAPWORLDWIDEMARKETS,THESEDECISIONSAREBECOMINGEVERMORECOMPLEXTHEPRESENCEOFMULTIPLECRITERIAINTHESEDECISIONSHASLONGBEENRECOGNIZED21OUTSOURCINGRISKSOTHERRISKSARERELATEDTOPARTN
34、ERSELECTION,FOCUSINGSPECIFICALLYONTHEADDITIONALRISKSASSOCIATEDWITHINTERNATIONALTRADERISKSINOUTSOURCINGCANINCLUDE22COSTUNFORESEENVENDORSELECTION,TRANSITION,ORMANAGEMENTLEADTIMEDELAYINPRODUCTIONSTARTUP,MANUFACTURINGPROCESS,ORTRANSPORTATIONQUALITYMINORORMAJORFINISHINGDEFECTS,COMPONENTFITTING,ORSTRUCTUR
35、ALDEFECTSOUTSOURCINGHASBECOMEENDEMICINTHEUNITEDSTATES,ESPECIALLYINFORMATIONTECHNOLOGYTOINDIAANDPRODUCTIONTOCHINA23RISKFACTORSINCLUDEABILITYTORETAINCONTROLPOTENTIALFORDEGRADATIONOFCRITICALCAPABILITYRISKOFDEPENDENCYPOOLINGRISKPROPRIETARIALINFORMATION,CLIENTSCOMPETINGAMONGTHEMSELVESRISKOFHIDDENCOSTSECO
36、LOGICALRISKSINOUREVERMORECOMPLEXWORLD,ITNOLONGERISSUFFICIENTFOREACHORGANIZATIONTOMAKEDECISIONSINLIGHTOFTHEIROWNVESTEDSELFINTERESTTHEREISGROWINGCONCERNWITHTHEIMPACTOFHUMANDECISIONSONTHESTATEOFTHEEARTHTHISISESPECIALLYTRUEINMASSPRODUCTIONENVIRONMENTSSUCHASPOWERGENERATION,24BUTALSOISIMPORTANTINALLASPECT
37、SOFBUSINESSCRUZ2008PRESENTEDADYNAMICFRAMEWORKFORMODELINGANDANALYSISOFSUPPLYCHAINNETWORKSINLIGHTOFCORPORATESOCIALRESPONSIBILITY25THATSTUDYPRESENTEDAFRAMEWORKMULTIPLEOBJECTIVEPROGRAMMINGMODELWITHTHECRITERIAOFMAXIMIZINGPROFIT,MINIMIZINGWASTE,ANDMINIMIZINGRISKMULTIPLECRITERIASELECTIONMODELANUMBEROFMETHO
38、DOLOGIESAREAPPLIEDINPRACTICE,TOINCLUDESIMPLESCREENINGANDSCORINGMETHODS,26SUPPLIERPOSITIONINGMATRICESTOLAYOUTRISKSBYVENDOR,WITHASSOCIATEDRATINGS,27ANDACOMBINATIONOFSORTSCOMBININGRISKCATEGORIZATIONWITHRATINGSOFOPPORTUNITY,PROBABILITY,ANDSEVERITY28TRADITIONALMULTIPLECRITERIAMETHODSHAVEALSOBEENAPPLIED,T
39、OINCLUDEANALYTICHIERARCHYPROCESS29THESIMPLEMULTIATTRIBUTERATINGTHEORYSMART30MODELBASESSELECTIONONTHERANKORDEROFTHEPRODUCTOFCRITERIAWEIGHTSANDALTERNATIVESCORESOVERTHESECRITERIA,ANDWILLBEUSEDHERENOTETHATWEAREDEMONSTRATING,ANDARENOTCLAIMINGTHATTHEORDERSANDRATINGSUSEDAREUNIVERSALWEARERATHERPRESENTINGAME
40、THODTHATREALDECISIONMAKERSCOULDUSEWITHTHEIROWNRATINGSANDEVENWITHOTHERCRITERIATHATTHEYMIGHTTHINKIMPORTANTINAGIVENAPPLICATIONOPTIONSTHEREAREVARIOUSLEVELSOFOUTSOURCINGTHATCANBEADOPTEDTHESERANGEFROMSIMPLYOUTSOURCINGPARTICULARTASKSMUCHLIKETHEIDEAOFSERVICEORIENTEDARCHITECTURE,COMANAGINGSERVICESWITHPARTNER
41、S,HIRINGPARTNERSTOMANAGESERVICES,ANDFULLOUTSOURCINGINACONTRACTUALRELATIONSHIPWEWILLUSETHESEFOUROUTSOURCINGRELATIONSHIPSPLUSTHEFIFTHOPTIONOFDOINGEVERYTHINGINHOUSEASOUROPTIONSCRITERIAWEWILLUTILIZETHECRITERIAGIVENBELOWCOSTINCLUDINGHIDDENLEADTIMEQUALITYABILITYTORETAINCONTROLPOTENTIALLOSSOFCRITICALCAPABI
42、LITYRISKOFDEPENDENCYRISKOFLOSSOFPROPRIETARIALINFORMATIONRISKOFCLIENTCONTENTIONTHESMARTMETHODBEGINSBYRANKORDERINGCRITERIAHEREASSUMETHEFOLLOWINGRANKORDEROFIMPORTANCE1ABILITYTORETAINCONTROL2RISKPROPRIETARIALINFORMATIONLOSS3QUALITYOFPRODUCTANDSERVICE4POTENTIALLOSSOFCRITICALCAPABILITY5RISKOFDEPENDENCY6CO
43、ST7LEADTIME8RISKOFCLIENTCONTENTIONTHENEXTSTEPISTODEVELOPRELATIVEWEIGHTSOFIMPORTANCEFORCRITERIAWEWILLDOTHISBYASSIGNINGTHEMOSTIMPORTANTCRITERION100POINTS,ANDGIVEPROPORTIONALRATINGSFOREACHOFTHEOTHERSASGIVENINTABLE51WEIGHTSAREOBTAINEDBYDIVIDINGEACHCRITERIONSASSIGNEDPOINTVALUEBYTHETOTALOFPOINTSHERE435THI
44、SYIELDSWEIGHTSSHOWNINTABLE52SCORINGOFALTERNATIVESOVERCRITERIATHENEXTSTEPOFTHESMARTMETHODISTOSCOREALTERNATIVESTHISISANEXPRESSIONBYTHEDECISIONMAKERORASSOCIATEDEXPERTSOFHOWWELLEACHALTERNATIVEPERFORMSONEACHCRITERIONSCORESRANGEFROM10IDEALPERFORMANCETO0ABSOLUTEWORSTPERFORMANCEIMAGINABLETHISAPPROACHMAKESTH
45、ESCORESINDEPENDENTOFSCALE,ANDINDEPENDENTOFWEIGHTDEMONSTRATIONISGIVENINTABLE53ONCEWEIGHTSANDSCORESAREOBTAINED,VALUEFUNCTIONSFOREACHALTERNATIVEARESIMPLYTHESUMPRODUCTSOFWEIGHTSTIMESSCORESFOREACHALTERNATIVETHECLOSERTO10THEMAXIMUMVALUEFUNCTION,THEBETTERTABLE54SHOWSVALUESCORESFORTHEFIVEALTERNATIVESTHEOUTC
46、OMEHEREISTHATINHOUSEOPERATIONSBESTSATISFYTHEPREFERENCEFUNCTIONOFTHEDECISIONMAKEROBVIOUSLY,DIFFERENTWEIGHTSANDSCORESWILLYIELDDIFFERENTOUTCOMESBUTTHEMETHODENABLESDECISIONMAKERSTOAPPLYASOUNDBUTSIMPLEANALYSISTOAIDTHEIRDECISIONMAKING译文供应链风险管理DLOLSON和DWU全球竞争，技术变化，以及不断寻找具有竞争优势的动机的供应链风险管理。供应链往往是复杂的系统网络，全球数百
47、或数以千计的参与者都在该系统网络中（沃尔玛或戴尔）。这个词已经被用在战略层面（协调和合作）和战术水平都（跨职能与企业物流管理）。在这个意义上说，风险管理可以集中精力确定更好的方法和实现组织方式，而不是简单的保全资产或规避风险。供应链风险管理对协调和跨职能的活动过程和内部协作的组织网络很感兴趣。汤从风险管理的角度提供了供应链的框架。供应链使制造业外包能够利用全球的相对优势，优势，以及增加产品品种。在此有更开放的，动态系统固有的风险。供应链风险管理过程供应链的一个风险管理进程，包括风险识别，风险评估，风险规避和风险缓解步骤。处理这些风险结构与上述汤的名单兼容，但重点放在该进程的更广泛的方面。风险识
48、别在供应链中的风险可以包括操作风险和干扰。操作风险包括如客户需求，供应和成本的内在不确定性的供应链元素。中断的风险来自灾害（在洪水，飓风等形式自然，人，在恐怖袭击或战争的形式提出）。还有来自经济危机的（货币重新评估，罢工，多变的市场价格）。大多数定量分析方法主要集中在经营风险，中断更戏剧化，较难预测，因此更为困难模式。风险管理规划和反应通常是定性受干扰的。风险评估理论上，风险已被看作是适用于那些已知胜算的情况下，不确定性和可能性是那些不知道情况。风险是一个较好的决策依据，但生活往往不确定性的情况下提出与决策者。这个问题进一步复杂化，因为完全理性的决策者可能从根本上不同的角度看待风险，定性风险管
49、理很大程度上取决于对风险管理的态度很大。不同的理性个体可能有不同的反应，避免风险，通常是负相关的回报，从而导致一个折中的决定，研究认知心理学的研究发现，经理们往往不敏感的概率估计可能的结果，他们往往忽视认为是不可能的可能发生的事件。此外，管理人员往往不注意参与的积极成果的不确定性，他们往往把重点放在关键性能指标，这使得他们的风险反应于环境队伍，对于决策理论的一些目标，他们希望通过定量的方法，科学的风险处置措施后告诉人类应该如何作出决定的规范性意见。业务涉及非理论建设，但是水平高。基于不确定性（数据不详）和多个（往往相互冲突的）因素的考虑，使得在风险管理后，认为更适当的定性方法。由于诸如概率因素往往缺乏准确的措施，（更可能使个别情况下广泛有效的反应）的强壮的策略往往吸引风险管理者。策略是有效的，如果他们能帮助一个公司的经营风险和有效处理，不论有多大的破坏。有弹性的策略，如果他们能够坚定地维护一个主要经营的中断。供应链风险可能来自许多来源，包括以下内容政治事件产品的可用性距离来源行业的能力需求波动技术变革在劳动市场的变化金融不稳定管理的营业额风险规避风险防范可能是最古老的保险，购买一些金融安全来自承销商的水平。这侧重于财务方面的风险，是被动的，提供了一些如何从负面经验后恢复的方法。保险不是风险管理在供应链使
