1、毕业论文（设计）外文翻译外文原文THEDIFFUSIONOFECOMMERCEAMONGSMESTHEORETICALIMPLICATIONSANDEMPIRICALEVIDENCEABSTRACTASASPECIFICINSTITUTIONOFDISTRIBUTIVETRADES,ECOMMERCEDISPLAYSSIMILARITIESWITHRETAILSTORESANDMAILORDERCOMPANIESASWELLASPROVIDINGTHEORETICALSUPPORTFORTHEASSUMPTIONTHATECOMMERCEISAWAYTOSELLCERTAINGOODSANDS
2、ERVICESATPRICESPOTENTIALLYLOWERTHANTHOSEOFTRADITIONALDISTRIBUTIVECHANNELS,THISPAPERANALYSESITSINTERFIRMDIFFUSIONAMONGASAMPLEOFFIRMSMOSTLYSMESINITALYTHEPAPERHASTHREEMAINPURPOSESFIRSTLY,ITCHALLENGESTHEVIEWOFECOMMERCEASA“TECHNOLOGICALREVOLUTION”,BYPOINTINGOUTITSNATUREASACOSTMINIMIZINGMARKETINGCHANNELIN
3、PARTICULAR,ITSHOWSHOW,UNDERCERTAINCONDITIONS,ECOMMERCEISASOURCEOFTRANSACTIONCOSTADVANTAGESANALOGOUSTOTHOSEYIELDEDBYMAILORDERBUSINESSSECONDLY,THEPAPERIDENTIFIESFROMATHEORETICALVIEWPOINTTHECIRCUMSTANCESUNDERWHICHECOMMERCESALESMIGHTACHIEVEASIGNIFICANTLEVELOFPENETRATIONAMONGTHOSESMESTHATWOULDOTHERWISEIN
4、CURHIGHCOSTSINORGANIZINGAPROPRIETARYDISTRIBUTIVECHANNELTHIRDLY,ITEMPLOYSAUNIQUEDATASETOFITALIANMANUFACTURING,SERVICE,ANDHOSPITALITYFIRMSNEARLY90OFTHEMWITHFEWERTHAN100EMPLOYEESTOESTIMATEADIFFUSIONMODELBASEDONTHELOGISTICCURVEACCORDINGTOTHEESTIMATES,BYTHEFOURTHQUARTEROF2003NEARLY50OFTHEPOPULATIONOFFIRM
5、SINTHEGEOGRAPHICALAREASURVEYEDWILLHAVEINTRODUCEDECOMMERCEAMONGTHEIRMARKETINGCHANNELS1INTRODUCTIONDESPITERAPIDGROWTHEXPERIENCEDINRECENTYEARS,ECOMMERCESALESACCOUNTFORAVERYSMALLSHAREOFTOTALTRANSACTIONSASAMATTEROFFACT,ELECTRONICTRANSACTIONSINEITHERBUSINESSTOCONSUMERB2CORBUSINESSTOBUSINESSB2BMARKETSAREST
6、ILLINTHEIRINFANCY,WITHB2BREPRESENTINGAPPROXIMATELY80PERCENTOFALLELECTRONICSALESINTERNATIONALDATACORPORATION,2000B2BISEXPECTEDTOCONTINUETOGROWFASTERTHANB2COVERTHENEXTFEWYEARS,ALSOOWINGTOTECHNOLOGICALANDORGANIZATIONALIMPROVEMENTSREPRESENTEDBYTHEDIFFUSIONOFELECTRONICHUBSANDTHEEMERGENCEOFREVERSEAGGREGAT
7、ORSCFKAPLANANDSAWHNEY,2000YETALTHOUGH“THESPECTACULARBURSTINGOFTHEINTERNETBUBBLEHASLEDSOETOQUESTIONTHEVERYIMPORTANCEOFTHENET”THEECONOMIST,2001,P7,THEPOTENTIALIMPACTOFECOMMERCEONFIRMSMARKETINGSTRATEGIESISLIKELYTOBECOMEMOREANDMOREIMPORTANTINTHEYEARSTOCOMETHISPAPERHASTHREEMAINPURPOSESFIRSTLYSECTION21,IT
8、CHALLENGESTHECOMMONLYACCEPTEDVISIONOFECOMMERCEASA“TECHNOLOGICALREVOLUTION”,POINTINGOUTITSCLOSECONNECTIONWITHTRADITIONALMAILORDERRETAILCHANNELSECONDLYSECTION22,ITIDENTIFIESTHECIRCUMSTANCESUNDERWHICHECOMMERCESALESMIGHTACHIEVEASIGNIFICANTLEVELOFPENETRATIONAMONGTHOSESMESWHICHWOULDOTHERWISEINCURHIGHCOSTS
9、INORGANIZINGPROPRIETARYDISTRIBUTIVECHANNELS,ANDWHICHMIGHTBENEFITFROMDISINTERMEDIATINGANDDEALINGDIRECTLYWITHTHEIRCUSTOMERS,EITHERINTHEBUSINESSORTHECONSUMERSECTORSTHIRDLYSECTIONS3AND4,ITEMPLOYSAUNIQUEDATASETOFMANUFACTURING,SERVICE,ANDHOSPITALITYFIRMSMOSTOFTHEMSMALLANDMEDIUMSIZEDLOCATEDINTHEEMILIAROMAG
10、NAREGIONOFITALYTOESTIMATEANINFRASECTORALDIFFUSIONMODELBASEDONTHELOGISTICCURVEFORTHECASEOFTHEECOMMERCEDISTRIBUTIVECHANNEL2TRANSACTIONCOSTSANDTHEINSTITUTIONALARRANGEMENTSOFDISTRIBUTIONINITSMOSTCOMMONLYACCEPTEDDEFINITION,THETERMECOMMERCEDENOTESTRANSACTIONSINWHICHTHEINTERNETISUSEDATOESTABLISHTHETERMSOFT
11、RADEPRICE,AVAILABILITY,TIMETODELIVERY,ANDTHEOTHERDETAILSOFTHETRANSACTIONUSUALLYCALLEDCOORDINATIONCOSTSAMONGTHEPARTICIPANTSINAMARKETINGCHANNELANDTHENBTOSELLGOODSANDSERVICESWHICHCANBEDELIVEREDOFFLINEORSERVICESWHICHCANBE“DIGITIZED”ANDDELIVEREDONLINEACCORDINGTOTHERELEVANTLITERATUREFORASURVEY,CFGARICANOA
12、NDKAPLAN,2000,ITISSTILLUNCLEARWHETHERECOMMERCEISABRANDNEWPARADIGMORASIMPLE,ALTHOUGHSIGNIFICANT,IMPROVEMENTINTHETRADITIONALDISTRIBUTIVETRADESMORECAREFULCONSIDERATIONOFINSTITUTIONALARRANGEMENTSINDISTRIBUTIVETRADESMAYSHEDSOMELIGHTONTHISCONTROVERSIALISSUE21ECOMMERCEANDMAILORDERTWOSIDESOFTHESAMECOINFROMA
13、THEORETICALVIEWPOINT,ECOMMERCEISASOURCEOFTRANSACTIONCOSTADVANTAGESBASEDONTHEEXPLOITATIONOFINFORMATIONANDCOMMUNICATIONTECHNOLOGIESINTHISCONNECTION,SIGNIFICANTDIFFERENCESINTECHNOLOGICALFEATURESNOTWITHSTANDING,ECOMMERCECANBELIKENEDTOATECHNOLOGICALLYUPTODATEVERSIONOFTHEMAILORDERBUSINESS,WHOSEORIGINSDATI
14、NGTOTHEENDOFTHEFIFTEENTHCENTURYINVENICEWERECLOSELYLINKEDWITHPRINTINGANDTHEDEPICTIONOFPRODUCTSFORSALEINACATALOGUETHEFORERUNNERSOFTHEMODERNMAILORDERCOMPANIES,MAILORDERCATALOGUEAPPEAREDINTHEMIDNINETEENTHCENTURYAMERICAIN1844,FOREXAMPLE,ORVISDISTRIBUTEDACATALOGUELISTINGARANGEOFFISHINGSUPPLIESANDIN1845TIF
15、FANYEMMETANDJEUCK,1950SPIEGEL,CHICAGOMAILORDERANDNATIONALBELLASHESSOPENEDTHEIRSTORESONLYINTHE1940S,WHENITWASTOOLATETOCHALLENGETHEMARKETLEADERSHIP4OFSEARSANDWARDCFMICHAEL,1994BECAUSECONSUMERSWEREEXHIBITINGAGREATERPREFERENCEFORDEPARTMENTSTORES,BOTHSEARSANDWARDUSEDTHECAPITALANDTHEMANAGERIALCAPABILITIES
16、GENERATEDBYTHEMAILORDERBUSINESSTODEVELOPAWIDESPREADNETWORKOFDEPARTMENTSTORESTHISLEDTOASIGNIFICANTCONTRACTIONINTHEIRMAILORDERBUSINESS,SOTHATBYTHE1940SDEPARTMENTSTORESHADBECOMETHEIRPREDOMINANTMARKETINGCHANNELCHICAGOMAILORDERANDNATIONALBELLASHESSEXITEDTHEMARKETINTHE1960S,WHEREASSPIEGELRETURNED5EXCLUSIV
17、ELYTOMAILORDERBUSINESSMICHAEL,1994INWESTERNEUROPE,APARTFROMSOMESPECIALIZEDGREWBYVIRTUEOFTHEFACTTHAT,UNLIKETHEUSA,THEBIGDEPARTMENTSTORESDEVELOPEDMAILORDERSECTIONSBECAUSEOFTHECLOSELINKWITHTHEGENERALRANGEOFGOODSANDADESIRETOPROVIDEANEWSERVICETOTHEIRCUSTOMERSHOWEVER,MAILORDERREALLYTRULYEXPANDEDAFTERTHESE
18、CONDWORLDWAR,WHENAHUGEDEMANDFORGOODSANDADISTRIBUTIONSYSTEMINRUINSCREATEDTHECONDITIONSFORITTODEVELOPAPACEASREGARDSITALY,MAILORDERHOUSESONLYAPPEAREDIN1958,WHENANNABONOMICREATEDPOSTALMARKETINORDERTOINTRODUCEADISTRIBUTIVECHANNELTHATHADPROVEDSOSUCCESSFULINTHEUNITEDSTATESUNDERITSNEWOWNEREUGENIOFILOGRANA,P
19、OSTALMARKETISSTILLTHEMARKETLEADERINITALY,WITHAPPROXIMATELY70PERCENTOFTHEINDUSTRYSSALESITISEVIDENTWHYMAILORDERCOMPANIESCAMETOFRUITIONINTHESECONDHALFOFTHENINETEENTHCENTURYMASSPRODUCEDCONSUMERGOODSBECAMEAVAILABLEAND,THEREFORE,FORCEDMANUFACTURERSFINDNEWANDBIGGERMARKETSTHISWASCOMBINEDWITHTHEGROWTHOFTHERA
20、ILWAYNETWORKANDAREGULARANDRELATIVELYCHEAPMAILDELIVERYSYSTEM,ESPECIALLYASREGARDSPARCELSTHEDEVELOPMENTOFCONSUMERCREDITFACILITIES,DAILYANDWEEKLYPAPERS,ANDNEWPRINTINGTECHNIQUESWERETHEMORETECHNICALASPECTSOFTHEDEVELOPINGMAILORDERSECTORTODAY,MANYSUCCESSFULMAILORDERHOUSESSTILLOPERATEINSEVERALCOUNTRIESEG,SPI
21、EGELANDJCPENNEYINTHEUS,POSTALMARKETINITALY,BUTTHERAPIDPENETRATIONOFSALESVIATHEINTERNETECOMMERCE,ONLINERETAILINGHASPROMPTEDSOMEOFTHEMTOADOPTAMULTICHANNELAPPROACHTHEREJUVENATEDMAILORDERCHANNELISCONSEQUENTLYNOWUSEDBYTRADITIONALMAILORDERHOUSES,BYNEWCOMPANIESSUCHASAMAZONCOMSTARTEDUPADHOCINORDERTOEXPLOITT
22、HENEWTECHNOLOGIES,ANDBYAPLETHORAOFFIRMSMOSTOFTHEMSMESWHICHUSEITFORDIRECTSALESOFTHEGOODS/SERVICESTHATTHEYPRODUCEDOESTHISMEANTHATECOMMERCEISTHECONTEMPORARYVERSIONOFMAILORDERTHENEWCOMMUNICATIONTECHNOLOGIESTHATPERMITTHEWIDESPREADDIFFUSIONOFECOMMERCEWHICHENABLESBETTERANDMOREDIRECTCOMMUNICATIONANDDIALOGUE
23、BETWEENSELLERSANDCUSTOMERSARESIMILARINPRINCIPLETOTHERAILWAYNETWORKTHATPERMITTEDTHEDEVELOPMENTOFMAILORDERINTHENINETEENTHCENTURYTOSOMEEXTENT,THEYHAVEENGENDEREDADEMATURITYPROCESSASDEFINEDBYABERNATHYANDUTTERBACK,1975INTHEMAILORDERBUSINESSWHICHSTEMSFROMTHEAVAILABILITYOFTHISFASTERCOMMUNICATIONNETWORKHENCE
24、,MORETHANAREVOLUTION,ECOMMERCESEEMSTOBETHERESULTOFTHEADOPTIONOFTHENEW,PERVASIVEINFORMATIONANDCOMMUNICATIONTECHNOLOGYWITHINATRADITIONALINSTITUTIONALFRAMEWORKTHEMAINDIFFERENCEISTHATTHEMODERNCOMMUNICATIONEQUIPMENTAVAILABLETOPRODUCERS,RETAILERSANDCONSUMERSISEASYTOHANDLE,NOTTOOCUMBERSOME,ANDSUBSTANTIALLY
25、INEXPENSIVEATTHISPOINT,ONEMAYANSWERTHEQUESTIONASKEDABOVEBYSAYINGTHATECOMMERCEISTHEMOSTRECENTDEVELOPMENTINTHEMAILORDERTRADE,ONEABLETOREVITALIZETHISRETAILINGINSTITUTION22ATRANSACTIONCOSTSAPPROACHTOECOMMERCEASSHOWNBYMOSTSTUDENTSOFMARKETING,TRANSACTIONCOSTSALSOINCLUDEESTABLISHMENTOFTHETERMSOFTRADEAMONGT
26、HEPARTICIPANTSINAMARKETINGCHANNELCFSTERNANDELANSARY,1982ITISTHEREFOREAUSEFULDEVICEFORANALYSISOFHOWFIRMSCHOOSEAMONGALTERNATIVEDISTRIBUTIVECHANNELSINTHISCONNECTION,ONECANEITHERTREATTHEPROBLEMINTERMSOFCONSUMERSUBSTITUTIONBEHAVIORAMONGDISTRIBUTIVECHANNELSWARD,2001ORSIMPLYEMPLOYTRANSACTIONCOSTSTHEORYWILL
27、IAMSON,1985INASSUMINGTHATBOTHECOMMERCEANDMAILORDERYIELDCOORDINATIONCOSTSADVANTAGESGARICANOANDKAPLAN,2000ANDPERFORMBETTERWHENTHEDENSITYOFCUSTOMERSISLOWMICHAEL,1994INWHATFOLLOWS,WETAKETHESECONDLINEOFINVESTIGATIONTHUS,COORDINATIONCOSTADVANTAGESARISESINCEABOTHMAILORDERANDECOMMERCEREDUCEABUYERSCOSTOFFIND
28、INGSUPPLIERSBECAUSESEARCHINGFORPRODUCTSANDCOMPARINGPRICESONTHEINTERNETCATALOGUESISLESSCOSTLYTHANVISITINGRETAILSTORESANDMAKINGPHONECALLSBTHEINTERNETANDTHECATALOGUESRECEIVEDINTHEMAILPROVIDESBUYERSWITHBETTERINFORMATIONABOUTPRODUCTCHARACTERISTICS,INCLUDINGPRICESANDAVAILABILITYINTURN,ADVANTAGESASSOCIATED
29、WITHTHEDENSITYOFCUSTOMERSINAGIVENGEOGRAPHICALAREAAREIDENTIFIEDINTHEFOLLOWINGCIRCUMSTANCES1ONTHECUSTOMERSSIDE,WHENTHEYAREFACEDBYSIGNIFICANTTRANSPORTCOSTSINREACHINGTHELOCATIONOFTHESELLERASISTYPICALLYTHECASEINRURALAREAS,THEYDRAWADVANTAGEFROMONLINEORPOSTALINFORMATIONONTHEGOODS/SERVICESTHATTHEYAREINTERES
30、TEDINPURCHASINGINTHISCASE,THEPURCHASEPRICEPAIDBYTHECUSTOMERINCLUDESAPAYMENTFORDESCRIPTIVEINFORMATIONIE,THEONLINE/OFFLINECATALOGUETHATSHOULDBESIGNIFICANTLYLOWERTHANTHETRANSPORTCOSTSTHATS/HEWOULDINCURBYGOINGTOINSPECTANDPHYSICALLYHANDLETHEGOOD/SERVICEINTHERETAILSTORE2ONTHESELLERSSIDE,ALOWDENSITYOFTHECU
31、STOMERSISANARGUMENTINFAVORNOTONLYOFSENDINGTHEMANONLINECATALOGUE,BUTALSOOFUSINGGUARANTEEDOVERNIGHTCARRIERSFORSHIPMENTSINALLCASESINWHICHTHEGOODS/SERVICESSOLDCANNOTBE“DIGITIZED”ANDDELIVEREDONLINEINTHISWAY,ALARGERPROPORTIONOFCUSTOMERSCANBEREACHEDATARELATIVELYLOWCOSTANDTHESELLERISMORELIKELYTOGAINCONTROLO
32、FAMUCHWIDERPOTENTIALMARKETTHANTHATASSOCIATEDWITHATRADITIONALRETAILSTORETHISBECAUSETHESELLERCANSERVEALARGEMARKETFROMACENTRALLOCATIONWITHOUTBUILDINGAWIDESPREADRETAILCHANNELCOMPOSEDOFANUMBEROFSTORESOFCOURSE,WHENTHEDENSITYOFTHECUSTOMERSEXCEEDSACERTAINTHRESHOLDTHECOMBINEDCOSTSOFUSINGTHEINTERNETANDGUARANT
33、EEDOVERNIGHTCARRIERSMAYBEGREATERTHANTHOSEOFBUILDINGANDMAINTAININGARETAILCHANNELCOMPRISINGSEVERALSTORESMOREGENERALCONSIDERATIONSCANBEPUTFORWARDASREGARDSTHECHARACTERISTICSOFTHEGOODS/SERVICESSOLDIECOMMERCEBUTNOTMAILORDERISMOREEFFICIENTTHANOTHERFORMSOFDISTRIBUTIONWHENTHEGOODS/SERVICESINVOLVEDINTHETRANSA
34、CTIONCANBEDIGITIZEDANDDELIVEREDONLINE,ASINTHECASEOFSOFTWARE,MUSIC,ANDFINANCIALBROKERAGESERVICESTHISISTHEONLYCIRCUMSTANCEINWHICHECOMMERCECANBEREGARDEDASAMAJORPROCESSINNOVATIONINALLOTHERCASESITISMERELYAWAYTOSPEEDUPTHEEXCHANGEOFINFORMATIONBETWEENSUPPLIERSANDCUSTOMERSIIECOMMERCEASWELLASMAILORDERMAYBEASS
35、OCIATEDWITHLOWERDISTRIBUTIONCOSTSINTHECASEOFSEARCHGOODS,OROFTHOSEGOODSANDSERVICESWHICHDONOTREQUIREMUCHINFORMATIONTOTHECUSTOMEROTHERWISE,EGINTHECASEOFEXPERIENCEGOODS,IFINFORMATIONONTHEGOODS/SERVICESCANONLYBEOBTAINEDBYDIRECTINSPECTIONORCONSUMPTIONASISTHECASE,FOREXAMPLE,WITHNEWPERFUME,ASOAP,ORARESTAURA
36、NTMEAL,CUSTOMERSPREFERTOTRAVELTOONEORMORESTORESSOTHATECOMMERCEISNOLONGERAVIABLESOLUTIONTHUS,EVENFROMATHEORETICALPERSPECTIVE,ECOMMERCECANBELIKENEDTOTHETRADITIONALMAILORDERCHANNELINTHISCONNECTION,ONECANNOTRULEOUTAPRIORITHATECOMMERCEWILLBEOVERTAKENBYTRADITIONALINSTITUTIONALARRANGEMENTSASMARKETANDTECHNO
37、LOGICALCONDITIONSCHANGEANDITSCOSTADVANTAGEISERODEDINPARTICULAR,ITISHIGHLYLIKELYTHATAASTHEPOPULATIONDENSITYINCREASESANDTHEINFORMATIONREQUIREDBYCUSTOMERSINCREASESASWELL,RETAILSTORESWILLSTILLENJOYATRANSACTIONCOSTADVANTAGEOVERECOMMERCEBFIRMSALREADYUSINGTHEECOMMERCECHANNELFORTHEIRSALESWILLINTRODUCEAND/OR
38、STRENGTHENIFITISALREADYINUSEAMORETRADITIONALRETAILCHANNEL,THERATIONALEBEINGTHESAMEASTHATFOLLOWEDEARLIERBYTHEMAILORDERHOUSES,IEINORDERTOEXPLOITTHEIRPURCHASINGORGANIZATIONMOREEFFICIENTLYANDTOINCREASETHEIRVISIBILITYAMONGPOTENTIALCUSTOMERSCECOMMERCEWILLNEVERACQUIREASIGNIFICANTSHAREOFTHEMARKETINTHECASEOF
39、EXPERIENCEGOODSWHICHCANNOTBEINSPECTEDDIRECTLYVIATHEINTERNET23SMESANDTHEPOTENTIALBENEFITSOFECOMMERCERECENTSTUDIESCF,AMONGOTHERS,CHAPPELLANDFEINDT,2000SADOWSKIETAL,2002HAVESHOWNTHATTHEPERCEIVEDIMPORTANCEOFECOMMERCEAMONGSMESDEALSMAINLYWITHTHEIRCOMMUNICATIONREQUIREMENTSTHUS,ADOPTIONOFINTERNETRELATEDTECH
40、NOLOGIESFOLLOWSA“WAITANDSEE”ATTITUDE,ANDISTOALARGEEXTENTDEPENDENTUPONIMPLEMENTATIONOFADEFENSIVESTRATEGYINGENERAL,CONDITIONALONTHEAVAILABILITYOFTHEKNOWLEDGEBASEANDTHESKILLSNEEDEDTODEALWITHTHEINFORMATIONANDCOMMUNICATIONTECHNOLOGIES,SMESMAYBENEFITFROMADOPTINGECOMMERCETOREDUCETHEIRMARKETENTRYANDDISTRIBU
41、TIVECOSTS,ANDTOREACHAHIGHERNUMBEROFPOTENTIALCUSTOMERSINPARTICULAR,SMESWHICHWOULDOTHERWISEINCURHIGHCOSTSINORGANIZINGAPROPRIETARYDISTRIBUTIVECHANNELMAYBENEFITFROMDISINTERMEDIATINGANDDEALINGDIRECTLYWITHTHEIRCUSTOMERS,EITHERINTHEBUSINESSORCONSUMERSECTORSTHISALSOIMPLIESTHATTHETRADITIONALDILEMMABETWEENDEV
42、ELOPINGAPROPRIETARYDISTRIBUTIVECHANNELANDRESORTINGTOTHESERVICESOFASPECIALIZEDDEALERCAN8BEOVERCOMEBYUSINGAMOREFLEXIBLEANDLOWCOSTDISTRIBUTIVECHANNELFOREXAMPLE,ASMALLFIRMSPECIALIZEDINTHEPRODUCTIONOFGOODSTYPICALOFACERTAINAREAEXAMPLESINTHEFOODINDUSTRYBEINGCULATELLODIZIBELLOANDLARDODICOLONNATAINTHEITALIAN
43、PROVINCESOFPARMAANDMASSACARRARAMAYENLARGEITSCUSTOMERBASEFARBEYONDTHENARROWBORDERSOFTHEAREAANDDOSOWITHOUTINCURRINGTHEHIGHCOSTOFBUILDINGADISTRIBUTIVECHANNELCOVERINGALLTHEAREAS/COUNTRIESINWHICHITWANTSTOEXPORTITSPRODUCTORHIRINGTHESERVICESOFSPECIALIZEDDEALERSINTHISMANNER,ATRADITIONALCOSTDISADVANTAGEWITHR
44、ESPECTTOLARGERFIRMSDISAPPEARS,ANDTHESMALLFIRMISINTHEPOSITIONTOCOMPETEWITHITSLARGERCOUNTERPARTINFACT,MOSTSMESAREFACEDWITHTHEPROBLEMOFDEVELOPINGANEFFICIENTRETAILCHANNELINTHISRESPECT,ECOMMERCEREPRESENTSARELATIVELYLOWCOSTALTERNATIVETOANYOTHERSOLUTION,ANDEFFICIENTLYSERVESTHEPURPOSEOFENABLINGTHEFIRMTOREAC
45、HASIGNIFICANTNUMBEROFCUSTOMERSWITHOUTHAVINGTOINVESTHEAVILYINTHEDEVELOPMENTOFAMARKETINGCHANNELTHEPROBLEMREMAINS,HOWEVER,THATINTHOSESECTORSINWHICHSUCHCOSTSADVANTAGESAREHIGHERFROMATHEORETICALVIEWPOINTNAMELY,SOFTWARE,FINANCIALANDBROKERAGESERVICES,ETCTHEREISATENDENCYTOWARDSCONCENTRATIONINTHEREALECONOMYWH
46、ICHPERSEREDUCESTHELIKELIHOODOFSMESGROWTHHOWEVER,THISMOSTLYCONCERNSTHEWELLKNOWNTRADEOFFBETWEENTHEGAINSINEFFICIENCYBROUGHTABOUTBYINCREASEDCONCENTRATIONANDTHEGAINSINTERMSOFCOMPETITIONANDECONOMICDEMOCRACYWHICHCANBEACHIEVEDTHROUGHDECENTRALIZATIONWILLIAMSON,1968ASSUCHTHEYFALLWITHINTHEFIELDOFANTITRUSTLEGIS
47、LATIONANDPRACTICEMORETHANINTHATOFTHEIDENTIFICATIONOFTHEOPTIMALDISTRIBUTIVECHANNEL译文中小型企业之间的电子商务扩散理论意义与实证摘要作为一个特殊的分销业，电子商务与零售商店和邮购公司相似。除了理论提供的假设所支持的，即电子商务是一个以比传统的分销渠道低的价格来销售某些商品和服务的方法，本文分析了电子商务在意大利企业间（大部分是中小型企业）的扩散。本文有三个主要目的。首先，它通过指出电子商务是一个成本最小化的营销渠道的类型，挑战了“技术革命”的观点。特别是，它显示了电子商务如何在一定条件下取得与邮购业务相似的交易成本
48、优势。其次，本文从理论的角度得出电子商务销售额在那些否则将花费高成本在组织私有分布渠道的中小企业之间的渗透力水平将达到一个客观的水平。第三，它采用了独特的数据，显示了意大利制造业，服务业，和接待企业（近90的人数少于100名员工）来估计扩散模型为基础的后勤曲线。据估计，到2003年的第四季度，近百分之五十的受访企业所在区域的人，将在自己的营销渠道中引入电子商务。1引言尽管近年来经历了快速增长，电子商务销售额占了总交易量非常小的份额。事实上，无论是在企业对消费者（B2C）或企业对企业（B2B）的电子交易市场电子商务仍处于起步阶段，电子商务与B2B的市场约占所有电子销售额的百分之八十（国际数据公司
49、，2000年）。在未来几年内，B2B电子商务预计将继续高于B2C电子商务的增长速度，原因也是以电子中心扩散和反聚合出现（参见卡普兰和桑尼，2000年）为代表的技术和组织的改进。然而，尽管“互联网泡沫壮观的破灭导致了对网络重要性的一些质疑”（经济学家，2001年，第7条），电子商务对企业的营销策略的潜在影响可能在未来几年变得更加重要。本文有三个主要目的。首先（21节），它的挑战了电子商务作为“技术革命”的普遍观点，指出它与传统的邮购零售渠道的密切联系。其次（22节），它确定了电子商务销售额在那些否则将花费高成本在组织私有分布渠道的中小企业之间的渗透力水平将达到一个客观的水平，这可能得益于发掘调解和能够直接与无论是在业务还是消费行业的客户处理。第三（第3节和第4节），它采用了位于意大利艾米利亚罗马涅大区的制造业，服务业和食宿业（其中大部分中小型）独特的数据生产，来估计一个建立在电子商务分销渠道逻辑曲线的基础上的基础扩散模型。2交易成本和分配的制度安排在其最普遍接受的定义，电子商务是指交易中，互联网被用来A）设立在营销渠道中参与者之间的贸易条款（价格，可用性，交货时间，以及通常称为合作成本的交易的其他细节）；B）使可脱机的商品和服务变成“数字化”和提供在线服务。据有关文献（对于调查，比照。GARICANO和KAPLAN，2000），目前还不清楚电子商务是否是一个全新的模式
