1、本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目DOSPILLOVERBENEFITSGROWWITHRISINGFOREIGNDIRECTINVESTMENTANEMPIRICALEXAMINATIONOFCASEOFCHINA出处UNIVERSITYOFCALIFORNIA,BERKELEY作者CHANGTAIHSIEHDOSPILLOVERBENEFITSGROWWITHRISINGFOREIGNDIRECTINVESTMENTANEMPIRICALEXAMINATIONOFTHECASEOFCHINAUSINGDATAFROMTHECHINESEMANUFACTURINGINDUSTRYFOR2001,T
2、HISARTICLEEXAMINESTHEIMPACTSOFFOREIGNPRESENCEONTHEPERFORMANCEOFLOCALLYOWNEDCHINESEFIRMSOURKEYRESULTSUPPORTSACURVILINEARFUNCTIONALFORMFOREIGNPENETRATIONRATESINEXCESSOFJUSTABOUTTWOTHIRDSOFINDUSTRIALCAPITALAREASSOCIATEDWITHDECLININGSPILLOVERBENEFITS,INDICATINGTHEDOMINANCEOFNEGATIVESPILLOVERSTHECURVILIN
3、EARRELATIONSHIPISFOUNDTOBEPARTICULARLYSTRONGINLABOURINTENSIVEINDUSTRIES,CONTRASTINGWITHASTANDARDLINEARRELATIONSHIPINTECHNOLOGYINTENSIVESECTORSTHEFINDINGOFTHECOMPLEXITYOFSPILLOVEREFFECTSCHALLENGESTHELAISSEZFAIREVIEWTHATTHEMOREINWARDFOREIGNDIRECTINVESTMENTFDI,THEBETTERANDTHATINWARDFDIINTOALLTYPESOFDOM
4、ESTICINDUSTRYISEQUALLYVALUABLE,INTERMSOFPERFORMANCEBENEFITSOURFINDINGSARGUEFORPOLICYMEASURESTOSTRENGTHENDOMESTICALLYOWNEDCHINESEINDUSTRY,TOPROVIDEEFFECTIVECOMPETITIONTOFOREIGNFIRMSANDTOABSORBTHEBENEFITSFROMSPILLOVERSMOREEFFECTIVELY1INTRODUCTIONTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENINWARDFOREIGNDIRECTINVESTMENTFDIAN
5、DTHEPERFORMANCEOFHOSTCOUNTRYLOCALLYOWNEDENTERPRISESLOESHASBEENSTUDIEDBOTHINTENSIVELYANDEXTENSIVELYALTHOUGHTHEARGUMENTSFORAPOSITIVERELATIONSHIPSEEMCOMPELLING,THERESULTSOFEMPIRICALRESEARCHAREDECIDEDLYMIXEDPRIORSTUDIESREPORTEDEITHERAPOSITIVE,INDETERMINATEORNEGATIVERELATIONSHIPLIUETAL,2000BUCKLEYETAL,20
6、02,2004GORGANDSTROBL2001SOUGHTANEXPLANATIONFORTHELACKOFCONGRUENTFINDINGS,BELIEVINGTHATINCONSISTENTRESULTSMIGHTBEASSOCIATEDWITHUNDERLYINGDIFFERENCESBETWEENTHEDATASETSEMPLOYEDWEARGUEINTHISARTICLETHATTHEDISARRAYMAYBEEASILYATTRIBUTEDTOAMISSPECIFICATIONOFTHENATUREOFTHERELATIONSHIPTHEORETICALSHORTCOMINGSH
7、AVEBEENASEVEREHANDICAPININVESTIGATINGTHESUBJECTASARESULT,METHODOLOGICALAPPROACHESEMPLOYEDTODATEHAVEBEENFLAWEDADRAWBACKOFTHEEXISTINGLITERATURE,WITHAFEWNOTABLEEXCEPTIONS,ISTHATITHASLARGELYBEENCONFINEDTOEXAMININGLINEARFORMSOFRELATIONSHIPWHATTHEINCONSISTENTRESULTSSUGGEST,HOWEVER,ISTHATTHERELATIONSHIPISF
8、ARFROMASIMPLELINEARONETHEREISCONSIDERABLEEVIDENCETOSUGGESTTHATTHEFORMOFTHERELATIONSHIPMIGHTBECURVILINEARAITKENANDHARRISON,1999THUS,FURTHEREVIDENCEONTHEIMPACTANDTHEFORMTHATTHISTAKES,OFINWARDFDIONLOESPERFORMANCEISSTILLNEEDEDTOADVANCETHEORIESANDTOPROMOTETHERESEARCHSTREAMSCAPABILITYTOEFFECTIVELYINFORMGO
9、VERNMENTPOLICYFORMATIONTHEARTICLEPRESENTSRESULTSFROMASTUDYTHATATTEMPTSTOREMEDYPREVIOUSDEFICIENCIESINTHEORYANDMETHODOLOGYWEPRESENTANAPPROACHTHATADDRESSESEXPLICITLYTHEPOSSIBILITYOFBOTHPOSITIVEANDNEGATIVESPILLOVERSASSOCIATEDWITHTHEOPERATIONSOFMULTINATIONALENTERPRISESMNES,WHICHLEADSTOANONMONOTONICRELATI
10、ONSHIPBETWEENTHELEVELOFFOREIGNPRESENCEANDLOESPERFORMANCETHERESULTINGEMPIRICALMODELISTESTEDUSINGTHELATESTDATAFORCHINESEINDUSTRYTHEARTICLEFINDSCONSIDERABLESUPPORTFORACURVILINEARANDINVERTEDUSHAPEDRELATIONSHIPBETWEENFOREIGNPRESENCEANDSPILLOVERBENEFITSTHISFINDINGINDICATESTHATTHECURRENTLYPREVAILINGEUPHORI
11、AABOUTFDIRESTSONWEAKEMPIRICALFOUNDATIONSITCHALLENGESTHELAISSEZFAIREVIEWTHATADVOCATESTHEUNFETTEREDINFLOWOFFDIASANOPTIMALPOLICYPRESCRIPTIONFORTHEDEVELOPMENTOFCHINESEINDUSTRYITSUGGESTSTHATINCERTAINCIRCUMSTANCESINWARDFDICANENTAILWINNERSANDLOSERS,CORRESPONDINGWITHFOREIGNANDINDIGENOUSFIRMS,RESPECTIVELYTHE
12、PRESENCEOFFOREIGNFIRMSBEYONDSOMELEVELIMPEDESTHEPERFORMANCEOFLOESINTHESAMEINDUSTRYTHECHALLENGEFORGOVERNMENTSISTOUSETHEIRPOLICYMAKINGPOWERSTOMAXIMIZETHEECONOMICANDSOCIALGAINSFROMFOREIGNCAPITALANDTOMITIGATETHELOSSESFORINDIGENOUSINDUSTRYINSECTIONII,WEPRESENTATHEORETICALFRAMEWORKBYREVIEWINGTHELITERATURET
13、HENADESCRIPTIONOFTHEMODELANDDATAFOLLOWSTHEPENULTIMATESECTIONDISCUSSESTHEECONOMETRICRESULTSTHELASTSECTIONCONCLUDES2THEORETICALFRAMEWORKSPILLOVERSARISEFROMNONMARKETTRANSACTIONSWHENRESOURCES,NOTABLYKNOWLEDGE,ARESPREADWITHOUTACONTRACTUALRELATIONSHIP,SOCALLEDEXTERNALITIESMEYER,2004INTHEEMPIRICALLITERATUR
14、EONFDI,INTRAINDUSTRYSPILLOVERSHAVEBEENDEFINEDASTHEPERFORMANCERELATEDBENEFITSACCRUINGTODOMESTICFIRMSFROMFOREIGNFIRMSOPERATINGWITHINTHESAMESECTORGORGANDGREENAWAY2004MENTIONIMITATION,THEACQUISITIONOFSKILLS,COMPETITIONANDEXPORTSASCHANNELSTHROUGHWHICHDEVELOPINGHOSTCOUNTRIESMAYACHIEVEPRODUCTIVITYGAINSVIAI
15、NTRAINDUSTRYSPILLOVERSALIMITEDNUMBEROFSTUDIESHAVECONSIDEREDHOWTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENFOREIGNPRESENCEANDSPILLOVERBENEFITSMIGHTCHANGEASINWARDFDIRISESSOMEARGUETHATAMODERATEFOREIGNPRESENCEISALLTHATISREQUIREDTOGENERATEPOSITIVESPILLOVERS,EVENWHENTHEREISARELATIVELYWIDETECHNOLOGICALGAPPEREZ,1997EVIDENCETHATT
16、HEMEREPRESENCEOFONLYAFEWCOMPETITORSISSUFFICIENTTOSHARPENINCENTIVESFORALLOCATIVEEFFICIENCYGAINSISPROVIDEDINANEMPIRICALSTUDYOFENTRYTHRESHOLDSBRESNAHANANDREISS1991FINDTHATMOSTOFTHECOMPETITIVEIMPACTFROMENTRYCOMESFROMTHEFIRSTTWOENTRANTSTOCHALLENGEAMONOPOLIST,WITHTHEEFFECTLEVELLINGOUTONCEMARKETPARTICIPANT
17、SNUMBERAROUNDFIVELIKEWISE,DEMONSTRATIONEFFECTSTHATBENEFITLOCALTECHNICALEFFICIENCYAREAVAILABLEEVENWHENFOREIGNPRESENCEISMODERATEHADDADANDHARRISON,1991THEEMPLOYMENTOFADVANCEDFOREIGNTECHNOLOGYINJUSTAFEWFOREIGNAFFILIATESFASISALLTHATISNEEDEDTOPROVETOLOCALFIRMSTHEBENEFITSOFACQUIRINGTHISTECHNOLOGYACCORDINGT
18、OTHISARGUMENT,SMALLFOREIGNCAPITALSHARESARESUFFICIENTTOGENERATESPILLOVERS,。MORERECENTLYANUMBEROFTHEORETICALREASONSFORNEGATIVESPILLOVEREFFECTSHAVEBEENPUTFORWARDTHEKEYARGUMENTISTHATATGREATERLEVELSOFFOREIGNPRESENCE,NEGATIVEEFFECTSSTARTTOBECOMEAPPARENTANDMAYBEGINTOCOUNTERACTPOSITIVEEFFECTSFIRST,THEPRODUC
19、TIVITYOFLOESMIGHTFALLOWINGTOAMARKETSTEALINGEFFECTTHISISBASEDONTHEARGUMENTTHATFASAREABLETOCOMPETEATLOWMARGINALCOSTTHROUGHACCESSTOTHEPARENTSOWNERSHIPADVANTAGESAITKENANDHARRISON,1999INFINALANDINTERMEDIATEMARKETS,INCOMINGFASAREABLETODRAWDEMANDAWAYFROMLOESORCONFINECOMPETINGLOESTOLESSPROFITABLESEGMENTSOFI
20、NDUSTRYTHROUGHTHEINTRODUCTIONOFNEWDIFFERENTIATEDPRODUCTSANDOFPROCESSINNOVATIONWITHIMPROVEDQUALITYCONTROLTHUS,DOMESTICFIRMSTHATCOMPETEDIRECTLYWITHTHEFOREIGNINVESTORMAYLOSEMARKETSHAREAND,LEFTSTRANDEDWITHEXCESSCAPACITY,EXPERIENCEADECLINEINTHEPRODUCTIVEUSEOFTHEIRRESOURCESMODY,2004THEREISEVIDENCETHATTHEF
21、DIREDUCESPRODUCTIVITYOFLOCALFIRMSTHROUGHMARKETSTEALINGINTHEUKMANUFACTURINGSECTORSMCVICAR,2002NEGATIVEEXTERNALITIESMAYALSOARISEINFACTORMARKETWHEREFOREIGNINVESTORSINCREASEDEMANDFORSCARCERESOURCESSUCHASSKILLEDLABOURANDDOMESTICCREDITANDHENCERAISEPRODUCTIONCOSTSFEESTRAANDHANSON1997ARGUETHATFOREIGNINVESTO
22、RSWILLUSEAMORESKILLINTENSIVETECHNOLOGYTHANTHETYPICALDOMESTICINVESTORSANDHENCERAISETHEWAGESOFSKILLEDWORKERS,APROPOSITIONFORWHICHTHEYFINDSUPPORTINMEXICANDATAMODY,2004THELABOURSTEALINGBYFOREIGNFIRMSWOULDDEPRIVELOCALFIRMSOFTHEIRMOSTPRODUCTIVELABOURANDMAKETHEPROCESSOFASSIMILATINGFOREIGNTECHNOLOGYHARDERSE
23、COND,SENIORMANAGEMENTINFASOFTENUSESAGGRESSIVESTRATEGIESTOSECUREMARKETSHAREZHOUETAL2002THISLEADSTOFIERCECOMPETITION,WHICHMAYDRIVETHELOESTOREDUCEPRODUCTION,ANDTHEREFORE,TOINCURHIGHERAVERAGECOSTSKONINGS,2000THISEFFECTWILLBEMOSTPRONOUNCEDININSTANCESWHERELOCALFIRMSARESUBJECTTOLARGEFIXEDCOSTS,WHICHCANNOTB
24、EEASILYSHEDINFLEXIBLEORGANIZATIONALSTRUCTURESINESTABLISHEDDOMESTICFIRMS,ESPECIALLYSTATEOWNEDENTERPRISESSOES,WILLEXACERBATETHISIMPACTANDTHEPROCESSOFADJUSTMENTWILLBESLOWANDINEFFICIENTTHEABOVEREASONINGSUGGESTSTHATATHIGHERLEVELSOFFOREIGNPRESENCETHEMARKETSHAREOFLOCALFIRMSWILLBECANNIBALIZED,THEREBYRAISING
25、THEIRCOSTSOFPRODUCTIONANDRESULTINGINACROWDINGOUTEFFECTINTHISSITUATION,NEGATIVESPILLOVEREFFECTSCANEVENCOMETODOMINATEPOSITIVEEFFECTSTHISCLEARLYPOINTSTOTHEPOSSIBILITYOFCURVELINEINTHEEFFECTOFFOREIGNPRESENCEONSPILLOVERSTOLOCALLYOWNEDINDUSTRYTHEDISCUSSIONEARLIERINTHISARTICLEIMPLIESTHATSPILLOVERBENEFITSWIL
26、LINCREASEWITHFOREIGNPRESENCEUPTOAPOINTBEYONDTHISCROSSOVERPOINTINCREASEDFOREIGNPRESENCEWILLACTATLEASTINPARTASANIMPEDIMENTTOTHERATEOFGROWTHOFLOESPERFORMANCEANDSPILLOVERBENEFITSMAYSTARTTODECLINETHEFORMANDTHESTRENGTHOFTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENFOREIGNPRESENCEANDSPILLOVERBENEFITS,HOWEVER,MAYBEASSOCIATEDWITHT
27、HECHARACTERISTICSOFTHEINDUSTRIESUNDERCONSIDERATIONKATHURIA,2001CONVENTIONALTHEORYONMNESANDFDISUGGESTSTHATKNOWLEDGEBASEDASSETSARETHEKEYFIRMSPECIFICADVANTAGESHELDBYMNES,WHICHMOTIVATETHEMTOINVESTACROSSBORDERSTHUS,MAINSTREAMTHEORETICALPERSPECTIVESSUCHASTHEOLIPARADIGMDUNNING,1993SUGGESTTHATMNESOPERATEINT
28、ECHNOLOGYINTENSIVEINDUSTRIESINLABOURINTENSIVEINDUSTRIES,HOWEVER,MOREINWARDFDIMAYNOTLEADTOPROPORTIONATELYMORESPILLOVERBENEFITSTOLOESFIRST,THESCOPEFORTECHNOLOGICALSPILLOVERSINLABOURINTENSIVESECTORSISLIMITEDTHISISBECAUSEMNESINTHESEINDUSTRIESARENOTVERYTECHNOLOGICALLYADVANCEDFOREIGNMNESOPERATINGINLABOURI
29、NTENSIVEINDUSTRIESMAYBASETHEIRCOMPETITIVENESSMOREONORGANIZATIONALSKILLSANDMARKETINGSKILLS,SUCHASEXPERIENCESINORGANIZINGLABOURINTENSIVEPRODUCTIONANDTHEABILITYTOSPECIALIZEACROSSINTERNATIONALBORDERSSHI,1998ITFOLLOWSTHATLOESINLABOURINTENSIVEINDUSTRIESWOULDNOTREAPMUCHTECHNOLOGYSPILLOVERSFROMFASSECOND,LOC
30、ALFIRMSINDEVELOPINGHOSTCOUNTRYTYPICALLYHAVEALARGERPRESENCEINLABOURINTENSIVEINDUSTRIES,SUCHASTEXTILEANDFOOD,THANINTECHNOLOGYINTENSIVEINDUSTRIESTHESELIGHTINDUSTRIESAREOFTENCHARACTERIZEDBYMATURESATURATEDMARKETS,INWHICHCIRCUMSTANCESTHEGROWTHOFFASISLIKELYTOLEADTOMOREFIERCEHEADTOHEADCOMPETITIONANDRESULTSI
31、NTHERAPIDCANNIBALIZATIONOFMARKETSSERVICEDBYTRADITIONALCHINESEDOMESTICFIRMSTHENEGATIVEEFFECTSMAYARISEBECAUSEOFTHEPRICECOMPETITIVENATUREOFTHESEMARKETSTHEDISCUSSIONMENTIONEDEARLIERINTHISARTICLELEADSTOTHEFOLLOWINGHYPOTHESESHYPOTHESIS1THERELATIONSHIPBETWEENFOREIGNPRESENCEANDSPILLOVERBENEFITSISCURVILINEAR
32、,IEPASTSOMELEVELOFFOREIGNPRESENCE,SPILLOVERBENEFITSBEGINTOFALLHYPOTHESIS2THERELATIONSHIPBETWEENFOREIGNPRESENCEANDSPILLOVERBENEFITSISCURVILINEARINLABOURINTENSIVEINDUSTRIESHYPOTHESIS3THERELATIONSHIPBETWEENFOREIGNPRESENCEANDSPILLOVERBENEFITSISLINEARINTECHNOLOGYINTENSIVEINDUSTRIES3CONCLUSIONSTHERESULTSP
33、ROVIDESUPPORTFORALLTHREEHYPOTHESESTHEARTICLEFINDSCLEAREVIDENCEOFACURVILINEARRELATIONSHIPBETWEENFOREIGNPRESENCEANDSPILLOVERBENEFITSTODOMESTICALLYOWNEDINDUSTRYINCHINATHISCURVILINEARRELATIONSHIP,COMPAREDWITHLINEARRELATIONSHIPFOUNDINPREVIOUSSTUDIES,DEFINESBETTERTHENATUREOFTHEFDIINDUCEDSPILLOVERBENEFITST
34、HEFINDINGSUGGESTSTHATTHEMOREFDI,THEBETTERTHESISINTHESENSEOFSPILLOVERBENEFITSISONLYVERIFIEDINTHERANGEDEFINEDBYTHETHRESHOLDOFJUSTABOUTTWOTHIRDSOFFOREIGNCAPITALSHAREINTHECHINESEINDUSTRIESCONCERNEDINDEED,ALONGWITHOURFINDINGOFDECLININGSPILLOVERS,ANOTHERKEYCONCLUSIONOFTHISARTICLEISTHATMODERATELEVELSOFFORE
35、IGNPRESENCEAREBENEFICIALTOTHEPERFORMANCEOFCHINESELOCALLYOWNEDFIRMSFURTHERMORE,WEFINDTHATTHEFORMANDTHESTRENGTHOFTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENFOREIGNPRESENCEANDLOESPERFORMANCEDEPENDONTHECHARACTERISTICSOFTHEINDUSTRYINVOLVEDTHECURVILINEARRELATIONSHIPISPARTICULARLYSTRONGERINLABOURINTENSIVEINDUSTRIES,WHEREFOREIG
36、NANDLOCALLYOWNEDFIRMSCOMPETEHEADTOHEADINTHESATURATEDMARKETFORSTANDARDIZEDGOODS,LEADINGTOCROWDINGOUTEFFECTONDOMESTICFIRMSTHISFINDINGISINMARKEDCONTRASTWITHTHATFORTECHNOLOGYINTENSIVESECTORSWHERESPILLOVERBENEFITSGROWLINEARLYWITHRISINGFOREIGNPRESENCETHEAPPROACHTHATTHISSTUDYEMPLOYSISAMETHODOLOGICALIMPROVE
37、MENTONEXISTINGSTUDIESANDOURFINDINGOFACURVILINEARRELATIONSHIPHASIMPLICATIONSFORRESEARCHONSPILLOVERSWECONCLUDETHATTHEMIXED,CONTRADICTORYANDWEAKRESULTSFOUNDINMANYSTUDIESHAVEBEENCAUSED,ATLEASTINPART,BYAFAILURETOACCURATELYCAPTURETHENONLINEARNATUREOFTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENFOREIGNPRESENCEANDSPILLOVERBENEFIT
38、STHISSTUDYINDICATESSOMEAVENUESFORFUTURERESEARCHFIRST,FURTHERINVESTIGATIONATTHEINDUSTRIALLEVELWILLBEBENEFICIALTHISWILLHELPTOMOREACCURATELYDETERMINENOTSIMPLYTHEPOINTATWHICHTHEPRESENCEOFFOREIGNFIRMSCEASESTOADDTOSPILLOVERBENEFITS,BUTALSOWHATINDUSTRIALCHARACTERISTICSAREINVOLVEDANDWHATPRECISEPOLICYMEASURE
39、SMAYBEUSEDTOEXTENDTHEGROWTHOFPOSITIVESPILLOVERSSECOND,IFFUTURERESEARCHCANINVESTIGATETHEAPPARENTCOEXISTENCEINTHEDATAOFNEGATIVEANDPOSITIVESPILLOVERSFROMFOREIGNPRESENCE,ITMAYBEOFCONSIDERABLEVALUEFORTHEFINETUNINGOFPOLICYTOLIMITTHENEGATIVEANDENCOURAGETHEPOSITIVEEFFECTS译文外国直接投资上升是否增加了溢出效应关于中国实证分析摘要本文根据200
40、1年中国制造业的数据,研究了现有的外国直接投资对中国公司的影响。我们的研究结果表明，外国投资对溢出效应的影响呈曲线形式，其投资比率若超过中国产业资本的三分之二，则对中国产业产生负面的溢出效应。这一曲线关系适用于劳动力密集型产业,而技术密集型产业则对应于标准的线性关系。这一溢出效应的发现反驳了自由放任主义观点，自由放任主义认为，外商直接投资FDI对国内的所有产业都有同等的效应，外商直接投资越多，越有利于国内企业的发展。我们的研究结果认为，政府的政策措施可以加强本国企业与外国企业的竞争,从而可以从溢出效应中获益。一、介绍我们对外商直接投资FDI对中国国内企业溢出效应的影响进行了更深入的研究。尽管关
41、于外商直接投资同等效应地促进中国各行业企业的发展这一观点很有说服力,但实证研究的结果反驳了这一观点。不管之前的研究结果是正面的还是负面的关系，GORG和STROBL2001在研究的过程中没有得出统一的结论,他们觉得这可能是由于搜集数据过程中一些差异导致的。在这篇文章,我们认为这应该归因于研究中误差设定关系。然而，由于缺乏理论研究的铺垫，因此,通过模型来研究这个问题是存在缺陷的。目前理论研究的缺陷,以及一些特殊情况的存在,在很大程度上局限了这一线性关系的检验，所以导致了不一致的结果。然而,有大量的证据显示,这一关系可能是呈曲线形式的AITKENANDHARRISON,1999。因此,关于外商直接
42、投资对中国企业溢出效应的影响还是需要更多理论研究的支持和证明，从而为政府制定政策提供依据。本文的研究试图填补以前理论研究的不足。我们通过局限于某一区域来研究并设定模型，提出溢出效应正面或者负面影响与跨国企业的经营方式有关,并由此产生了一个关于外国投资水平和中国国内企业绩效的非单调函数。然后用最新的数据对此模型进行检验。本文发现外商直接投资和溢出效应间存在着一个倒U型的曲线关系。这一发现表明,当前关于外商直接投资的理论研究还停留在薄弱的环节。本次研究的结果反驳自由放任主义将放任外国直接投资的流入作为最优政策来促进中国产业的发展。研究表明,在某些情况下,外国直接投资可以导致外国和本国公司在竞争中的
43、优胜劣汰。在某些行业中，外国直接投资在某种程度上阻碍了中国国内企业的发展。政府所面临的挑战是他们如何运用他们的决策能力使经济和社会收益最大化,并且使产业中的损失减少到最低。在第二部分中,我们根据以前的研究提出了一个理论框架，然后对研究模型和研究数据进行说明。倒数第二部分将讨论实证分析的结果。最后部分则得出结论。二、理论框架所谓的外部性MEYER,2004即与市场无关的活动的发生而使资源和技术的快速传播。在关于外商直接投资的实证研究中,产业内的溢出效应可以定义为，在相同的领域中，国内公司为外国公司所创造的有利条件。GORG和GREENAWAY2004提到,一个国家可以通过技术的获得、竞争和出口商
44、品来增加产业间的溢出效应。关于外商直接投资如何影响国内的溢出效应的产生，一些人认为,适当的外商投资是产生正外部效应的必要条件,即使该国与其他国家的技术差距较远PEREZ,1997。证据表明,即使只有极少数的竞争对手，只要能刺激资源的有效配置，就能为实证研究提供条件。BRESNAHAN和REISS1991发现，市场大部分的竞争来自于行业排行前二的两个企业,而参与竞争的则是行业排行前五的几个企业。同样地,即使外国企业也存在于当地，企业间的竞争也有利于提高技术效率HADDAD,HARRISON,1991。在几个外国附属子公司FAS中，如果他们采用国外的某些先进技术，他们一定要先明确这项技术能给他们的
45、企业带来多少收益。根据这种观点,很少的外资股权也是可以产生溢出效应的。最近提出的很多关于负面溢出效应的理论假设，他们争论的关键是，在高水平的外国投资下,负面影响开始变得明显甚至抵消了正面的影响。首先,当地公司会因为外国企业“偷窃市场份额”行为的存在而降低生产效率。因为外国的子公司基于其母公司的优势，可以在一个较低的边际成本下参与竞争AITKENANDHARRISON,1999。所以在竞争市场中，外国的子公司可以通过从母公司引进新产品和创新技术而进入中国市场，从而在与当地公司的竞争中胜出。因此,国内公司在与外国投资者的直接竞争中有可能会失去其原有的市场份额,从而导致产品过剩，企业资源有效利用率下
46、降（MODY，2004）。有证据表明,在英国制造业中，外国直接投资通过“窃取”英国市场的份额，从而使当地公司的生产效率下降MCVICAR,2002年。负外部性也可以出现在要素市场，当外商投资对稀缺资源，比如熟练劳动力的需求增加时，他们的生产成本就增加了。FEESTRA和HANSON1997认为,外国投资者比传统的国内投资者使用更多的技术密集型技术,从而增加了熟练工人的工资,这一观点在对墨西哥的研究数据中得到了证实MODY，2004。外国公司使本地公司丧失了很多熟练劳动力，所以，想要本国公司和外国公司同步化就显得困难。第二,外国子公司的高层管理人员常常用掠夺式的战略来保持其市场份额周孙俐，200
47、2年出版。这导致了更加激烈的竞争,也迫使当地公司不得不减少生产，因此,也增加了产品的平均成本KONINGS,2000年。这种效应的产生是因为那些公司已经投入了大量的固定成本，这些已投入的固定成本又无法减少。对于已经建立了固定的组织结构的国内企业,尤其是国有企业，这种影响将会减慢其调整的速度。上述推理表明,高水平的外国直接投资将掠夺本地公司的市场份额,增加本地公司的生产成本,从而导致“挤出效应“。在这种情况下,负面的溢出效应将会覆盖正面的挤出效应。很明显，可以得到外商投资对本地企业溢出效应的曲线。之前也有学者认为外商投资可以增加本地企业的溢出效应，而超过曲线的某一点之后，外商投资的增加将会阻碍本
48、地企业的发展，同时溢出效应的福利也将开始减少。研究外商投资和溢出效应之间存在的强度关系时，应该也要考虑到该行业的特点KATHURIA,2001。传统的关于跨国公司和外商投资的理论表明,跨国企业最大的优势是他们持有的技术，这也激发了他们进行跨国投资。因此,主流理论观认为，跨国公司偏好投资技术密集型产业。然而,在劳动力密集型产业上，外国直接投资的增加可能不会导致溢出效应的增加。首先,技术的溢出效应在劳动密集型产业中是受到限制的。首先，在这些领域跨国企业并不没有拥有非常先进的技术。跨国公司经营劳动力密集型产业，更多地依赖于他们的组织能力和销售技巧来参与竞争,例如生产劳动密集型产品的经验和跨国经营能力
49、SHI，1998。因此,本国公司无法在劳动力密集型产业中获得很多的技术溢出效应。其次,本地公司的劳动密集型产业往往优于技术密集型产业,诸如“纺织品”和“食品”。这些轻工业市场在国内经常是成熟的、饱和的,此时如果外国对本国进行投资，将会造成更激烈的竞争,从而导致中国公司原有的市场份额被拆解。由于市场价格的竞争，可能出现的负面影响。根据以上内容，本文得出以下假说假设1外国投资和溢出效应之间存在曲线关系,若外商投资超过某一点，溢出效益开始下降。假设2在劳动密集型产业，外国投资和溢出效应是曲线关系。假设3在技术密集型产业，外国投资与溢出效应是直线关系。三、结论研究结果支持以上的三个假设。本文的研究发现外商投资对国内的溢出效应有明显的曲线线性关系。该曲线关系与过去的直线线性关系相比，更好地定义了外商投资的溢出效应。我们的研究结果表明关于“外商投资越多越好”这一观点的正确性只限于某一范围（大约三分之二）之内。证据证明，适当的外商投资有利于中国本地公司的发展。此外,在研究外商投资和溢出效应之间存在的强度关系时，需要结合该行业的特点。在劳动密集型产业中，这一曲线关系表现得尤为强烈，在劳动密集型企业中，外国公司和当地公司在饱和的市场中进行竞争，形成的“挤出效应”作用于本国公司，促进本国公司的发展，该发现与技术密集型产业形成鲜明对比。本文结合现有的研究，并
