1、本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目CONSUMPTIONSTRUCTURE,WELFAREGOODSANDRETIREMENTINCOMELINKINGTHEAGEINGPUZZLES出处IFDWORKINGPAPER作者NAJATELMEKKAOUIDEFREITAS，JOAQUIMOLIVEIRAMARTINS一、外文原文1MOTIVATIONTHELIFECYCLEMODELISTHEMAINFRAMEWORKUSEDINECONOMICSTOUNDERSTANDTHERELATIONSBETWEENAGEING,CONSUMPTIONANDSAVINGBEHAVIOURWHILEMAINPR
2、EDICTIONSOFTHELIFECYCLETHEORYTENDTOBESUPPORTEDBYEMPIRICALEVIDENCE,ANUMBEROFPUZZLESREMAINTHELITERATUREHASPUTFORWARDFOURMAINTYPESOFPUZZLESANAGEINGCONSUMPTIONPUZZLE,ANAGEINGSAVINGPUZZLE,ASAVINGCAPITALIZATIONPUZZLEANDASAVINGLONGEVITYPUZZLETHEFIRSTPUZZLECONCERNSTHETENDENCYFORCONSUMPTIONTODECREASEINOLDAGE
3、THISSTYLISEDFACTOBSERVEDINALLOECDCOUNTRIES,SEEMSTOCONTRADICTTHEIDEATHATHOUSEHOLDSSAVEINORDERTOMAINTAINTHEIRCONSUMPTIONLEVELAFTERRETIREMENTSECOND,SIGNIFICANTLEVELSOFSAVINGSAREOBSERVEDATOLDAGEANOTHERPUZZLINGFACTISTHATCOUNTRIESWITHGENEROUSPAYGSYSTEMANDHEALTHCARESYSTEMWELFAREGOODSHAVETHEHIGHESTPRIVATESA
4、VINGRATEINCONTRAST,INCOUNTRIESWHEREPENSIONFUNDSAREWELLDEVELOPED,THEPRIVATESAVINGRATEISMUCHLOWERFINALLY,ANINCREASEINLONGEVITYBYINCREASINGTHEDURATIONOFTHERETIREMENTPERIODCOULDBEEXPECTEDTOINCREASETHESAVINGRATIOHOWEVER,WHENEMPIRICALLYTESTED,THESIGNOFLONGEVITYVARIABLESINTRADITIONALSAVINGEQUATIONSISOFTENN
5、EGATIVEANEXTENSIVELITERATUREHASPUTFORWARDPOTENTIALEXPLANATIONSFOREACHOFTHEPUZZLES,BUT,TOOURKNOWLEDGE,THEREHASBEENNOATTEMPTTOBRINGALLOFTHEMTOGETHERINANINTEGRATEDVIEWWEARGUEINTHISPAPERTHATTHEFOURPUZZLESAREINTERLINKEDASDISCUSSEDBELOW,THEINTERACTIONBETWEENCONSUMPTIONANDPROVISIONOFWELFAREGOODSANDTHELEVEL
6、OFRETIREMENTINCOMECANINDEEDEXPLAINALARGEPARTOFTHESEPHENOMENAINORDERTOHIGHLIGHTTHEROLEOFTHESEDETERMINANTSANDTHEIRLINKS,ITISINSTRUMENTALTOCOMPAREHOUSEHOLDSAVINGBEHAVIOUR,HEALTHANDRETIREMENTSYSTEMSOFTWOCOUNTRYGROUPINGSTHOSEWITHPAYGSYSTEMSANDTHOSEWITHFULLYFUNDEDSYSTEMSOTHERTRADITIONALDETERMINANTSOFSAVIN
7、GSHAVEALSOTOBEBROUGHTINTOTHEPICTURE,INPARTICULARTHEROLEOFRICARDIANCOMPENSATIONBETWEENPRIVATEANDPUBLICSAVINGS,ASWELLASINCOMETHEPAPERBEGINSWITHAREVIEWOFEMPIRICALFACTSONCONSUMPTION,SAVINGSANDPENSIONSTHATGENERATETHEPUZZLESREFERREDABOVEINORDERTOGUIDEOURINTUITIONCONCERNINGTHERELATIONSHIPSAMONGTHEKEYVARIAB
8、LES,WEDEVELOPINSECTION3ATWOPERIODLIFECYCLEMODELWHEREWECONSIDERTHEOPTIMALWELFARECONSUMPTION,WELFARETRANSFERS,THEGENEROSITYOFPENSIONSYSTEMSANDLONGEVITYINSECTION4,WEGETBACKTOTHEFACTSANDPRESENTSOMEPOSSIBLEEXPLANATIONSOFTHEAGEINGPUZZLESINSECTION5,WETHENPRESENTECONOMETRICPANELESTIMATESTHATCOMBINEBOTHTHERE
9、LATIONSHIPSDERIVEDFROMTHETHEORETICALFRAMEWORK,OTHERADDITIONALEFFECTSANDCONTROLSOFTENUSEDINTHEEMPIRICALLITERATUREAFINALSECTIONCONCLUDES2THEAGEINGPUZZLESCONSUMPTION,SAVINGANDLONGEVITYTHEMOSTUSEFULFRAMEWORKTOSTUDYTHELINKBETWEENAGEING,CONSUMPTIONANDSAVINGISTHELIFECYCLEMODELMODIGLIANIANDBRUMBERG,1954FRIE
10、DMAN,1957INITSSIMPLESTVERSION,INDIVIDUALSLIVETWOPERIODSINTHEFIRSTPERIODEACHPERSONEARNSAWAGEFROMHISORHERLABOURSUPPLYANDINTHESECONDPERIODTHEPERSONISRETIREDINDIVIDUALSSAVEFROMTHEIRWAGEINCOMETOPROVIDEFORSECONDPERIODCONSUMPTIONWITHACONSTANTRATEOFINTERESTIE,THERATEOFINTERESTDOESNOTVARYWITHTHELEVELOFSAVING
11、THEMAINRESULTOBTAINEDFROMTHISFRAMEWORKISTHATTHECONSUMPTIONISSMOOTHEDTHEINDIVIDUALSWILLSAVEINORDERTOTRANSFERPURCHASINGPOWERTOTHEPERIODOFTHERETIREMENTBUTSOMEEMPIRICALFACTSONCONSUMPTION,PENSIONANDSAVINGDONOTFITWELLWITHTHEBASICLIFECYCLEMODELTHEFIRSTPUZZLECONCERNSTHELINKBETWEENAGEINGANDCONSUMPTIONALARGEB
12、ODYOFLITERATUREHASFOUNDTHATCONSUMPTIONFALLSSIGNIFICANTLYATRETIREMENT,AFACTSOMEWHATINCONTRADICTIONWITHLIFECYCLECONSUMPTIONSMOOTHINGTHISAPPLIESOVERANUMBEROFCOUNTRIESEGUS,UKANDITALY,ACROSSDIFFERENTTIMEPERIODSANDACROSSDIFFERENTMEASURESOFSPENDINGTHISSTYLIZEDFACTISDISPLAYEDINFIGURE1,RELATINGLEVELSOFHOUSEH
13、OLDCONSUMPTIONBYAGEFORTHEUSANDSEVERALEUROPEANCOUNTRIESFIGURE1THEAGEINGCONSUMPTIONPUZZLEWHILEHOUSEHOLDSURVEYDATASUGGESTTHATTOTALCONSUMPTIONDISPLAYSAHUMPSHAPEDPROFILEACROSSAGEGROUPS,THISISNOTEQUIVALENTTOSAYTHATTHECONSUMPTIONPROFILEISHUMPSHAPEDOVERTHELIFECYCLEMAINLYDUETOTHEEXISTENCEOFCOHORTANDTIMEEFFEC
14、TSNONETHELESS,THEYWOULDSUGGESTTHATTHEPURECONSUMPTIONSMOOTHINGHYPOTHESISISONLYPARTLYSUPPORTEDBYTHEMICRODATASEVERALEXPLANATIONSOFTHISPUZZLEHAVEBEENPUTFORWARDALLOWINGFORUNCERTAINTY,BANKS,BLUNDELLANDTANNER1998SUGGESTTHATUNANTICIPATEDSHOCKSTHATOCCURAROUNDTHETIMEOFRETIREMENTCOULDEXPLAINTHEFALLINSPENDINGWI
15、THINTHECONTEXTOFTHELIFECYCLEMODELBERNHEIM,SKINNERANDWEINBERG2001SUGGESTEDTHATWORKERSDONOTADEQUATELYFORESEETHEDECLINEININCOMEASSOCIATEDWITHTHERETIREMENTHURDANDROHWEDDER2003ARGUETHATTHEDROPINSPENDINGCANSTILLBEEXPLAINEDBYANEXTENDEDVERSIONOFTHELIFECYCLEMODEL,WHERECERTAINWORKRELATEDCONSUMPTIONEXPENDITURE
16、SSTOPATRETIREMENTANDMARKETPURCHASEDGOODSBRSCHSUPANANDWINTER,2001HOWEVER,ITISPUZZLINGTHATINDIVIDUALSCANNOTANTICIPATETHISFACTANDCONTINUETOSAVEATOLDAGE,INPARTICULARINCOUNTRIESWITHGENEROUSWELFAREGOODSHIGHPENSIONREPLACEMENTRATESANDHEALTHCARECOVERAGEBLOOMETAL2003ANDSHESHINSKI2004SUGGESTTHATHIGHERLIFEEXPEC
17、TANCYMAYINCREASETHENEEDFORADDITIONALPRECAUTIONARYSAVINGS,DESPITETHEEFFECTOFIMPROVEDHEALTHCAREONTHELENGTHOFDESIREDWORKINGLIFEMOOREANDMITCHELL1998ALSOCONCLUDETHATAMERICANSARENOTPREPARINGADEQUATELYFORRETIREMENTASACOUPLEWOULDNEEDTOSAVE20OFANNUALEARNINGSBETWEEN1992ANDTHETIMEOFRETIREMENTAT62TOHAVEAREPLACE
18、MENTRATEOF61ASINGLEWOMANWOULDNEEDTOSAVEAROUND32OFHERINCOMETOHAVEAREPLACEMENTRATIOOF54ATAGEOF62THEYCONCLUDE,DESPITESEEMINGLYLARGEACCUMULATIONSOFTOTALRETIREMENTWEALTH,THEMAJORITYOFOLDERHOUSEHOLDSWILLNOTBEABLETOMAINTAINCURRENTLEVELSOFCONSUMPTIONINTORETIREMENTWITHOUTADDITIONALSAVINGBERNHEIMETAL2001ARGUE
19、THEIRRESULTSAREDIFFICULTTORECONCILEWITHTHELIFECYCLEMODELANDTHATTHEYAREMORELIKELYTOBETHERESULTOFHOUSEHOLDBEHAVIOURNOTGOVERNEDBYRATIONAL,FARSIGHTEDOPTIMIZATIONKHITATRAKUNANDSCHOLZ2004NOTETHATTAXINCENTIVES,LIKEIRASAND401KARENOTNEEDEDANDMAYLEADTOEXCESSSAVINGSFINALLY,ALARGELYEVOKED,BUTNOTWELLDOCUMENTED,R
20、EASONFORSAVINGATOLDERAGESISTHEEXISTENCEOFBEQUESTMOTIVESTHETHIRDPUZZLEARISESFROMTHEFACTTHATCOUNTRIESWITHFULLYFUNDEDSYSTEMSHAVETHELOWESTPRIVATESAVINGRATESINPRINCIPLE,THEINTRODUCTIONOFAFULLYFUNDEDPENSIONSYSTEMSHOULDINDUCEADECLINEINTHEREPLACEMENTRATEOFPAYGSYSTEMSAND,ACCORDINGTOTHELIFECYCLEMODEL,INCREASE
21、AGGREGATESAVINGSFIGURE2SHOWSTHATWHILESAVINGRATESHAVEBEENDECREASINGSTEADILYINALLCOUNTRIES,THECOUNTRIESWITHPAYGSYSTEMSHAVEPERSISTENTLYDISPLAYEDHIGHERHOUSEHOLDSAVINGRATESANDTHEGAPHASWIDENEDOVERTIMEFIGURE2THESAVINGCAPITALISATIONPUZZLEINASEMINALPAPER,FELDSTEIN1974HIGHLIGHTEDANEGATIVELINKBETWEENPAYGPENSIO
22、NSYSTEMSANDHOUSEHOLDSAVINGSBUT,SUBSEQUENTEMPIRICALTESTSONTHEIMPACTOFPENSIONSYSTEMSONHOUSEHOLDSAVINGHAVEPRODUCEDMIXEDRESULTSEGEDWARDS,1996CALLENTHIMANN,1997CORSETTI,SCHMIDTHEBBEL,1995ANDMURPHYANDMUSALEM,2004CONFIRMINGEARLIERFELDSTEINSRESULTS,EDWARDS1996FOUNDTHATTHESOCIALSECURITYSYSTEMHASANEGATIVEIMPA
23、CTONPRIVATESAVINGUSINGASAMPLEOF32COUNTRIESDEVELOPEDANDDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIESBAILLUANDREISEN1997ALSOFOUNDAPOSITIVEANDSTATISTICALLYSIGNIFICANTIMPACTOFPENSIONFUNDSONSAVINGSUSINGAPANELOF11COUNTRIESFORTHEPERIOD198293INMORERECENTSTUDY,BOSWORTHANDBURTLESS2004DIDNOTFINDANECONOMETRICALLYSIGNIFICANTIMPACTONPRIVA
24、TESAVINGFORASETOF11COUNTRIESDURINGTHEPERIOD19712000MURPHYANDMUSALEM2004CONSIDERED43COUNTRIESFORTHEPERIOD19602002ANDFOUNDTHATMANDATORYCONTRIBUTIONTOFUNDEDPENSIONSYSTEMSINCREASENATIONALSAVINGITCOULDBENOTEDTHATITISQUITEDIFFICULTTOCOMPARETHESESTUDIESDUETOTHEHETEROGENEITYOFSAMPLESANDESTIMATIONMETHODSTHAT
25、THEINTRODUCTIONOFPENSIONSYSTEMSMAYDECREASE,INCREASEORBENEUTRALONSAVINGSHASSEVERALPOTENTIALEXPLANATIONSUNDERDEFINEDBENEFITS,IFPENSIONWEALTHCANBESEENASASUBSTITUTEFORPRIVATEACCUMULATIONANDTHEREFORETHERECOULDBEADECREASEOFTHEHOUSEHOLDSAVINGWHENAPENSIONSYSTEMISINTRODUCEDMOREOVER,PENSIONSAREUSUALLYPAIDINTH
26、EFORMOFANNUITIESWITHOUTPENSIONANNUITIES,THEEMPLOYEEWOULDBEFORCEDTOACCUMULATEMORETOFINANCETHEIRRETIREMENTPERIODTHUS,BYOFFERINGANNUITIES,PENSIONPLANSCOULDREDUCESAVINGSANOTHEREXPLANATIONISRELATEDTOEARLIERRETIREMENTDECISION,ASINDIVIDUALSWHORETIREEARLIERAREFORCEDTOSAVEMOREINORDERTOFINANCEALONGERPERIODOFR
27、ETIREMENTIMPERFECTCAPITALMARKETSCANALSOPREVENTHOUSEHOLDSFROMBORROWINGFREELY,THEREBYFORCINGTHEMTOSAVEMORETHANTHEYOTHERWISEWOULDINTHISCASE,INSOFARASMANDATORYPRIVATEPENSIONFUNDSMAYINCREASEFINANCIALDEEPENINGANDREDUCEBORROWINGCONSTRAINTSTHEYWOULDDECREASEHOUSEHOLDSAVINGSTHEFOURTHPUZZLEISRELATEDTOTHEIMPACT
28、TOIMPACTOFLONGEVITYBLOOMETAL2003ARGUEDTHATHIGHERLIFEEXPECTANCYSHOULDLEADTOANINCREASEOFPRECAUTIONARYSAVINGS,BUTEMPIRICALWORKHASOFTENSUGGESTEDANOPPOSITESIGNTHISCOULDBESEENASASORTOFSAVINGLONGEVITYPUZZLEMORERECENTLY,BLOOMETAL2006HAVEALSOSHOWNTHATINTHEABSENCEOFSTRONGSAVINGRETIREMENTINCENTIVES,SUCHASINPAY
29、GSYSTEMS,ANINCREASEINLONGEVITYDOESNOTINDUCEHIGHERSAVINGS5REVISITINGTHEAGEINGPUZZLESEMPIRICALTESTSDRAWINGFROMTHEABOVERESULTS,WEARENOWINAPOSITIONTOTESTAREDUCEDFROMMODELEMBODYINGBOTHTHELONGTERMDETERMINANTSOFTHESAVINGRATESSUGGESTEDBYTHETHEORETICALMODEL,ASWELLASOTHERDETERMINANTSTHESPECIFICATIONACCOUNTSFO
30、RAVARIETYOFSAVINGDETERMINANTSIDENTIFIEDINTHELITERATUREEGEDWARDS,1996LOAYZA,SCHMIDTHEBBELANDSERVEN,2000MUSALEM2004THELISTISASFOLLOWSISHORTTERMANDMACROECONOMICDETERMINANTSPUBLICBUDGETBALANCEINGDPGDPPERCAPITAGROWTHLONGTERMREALINTERESTRATEIISOCIALSECURITYANDWELFARESYSTEMSDETERMINANTSRATIOOFPUBLICHEALTHE
31、XPENDITURESONHOUSEHOLDINCOMEPROXYFORTHEPROVISIONOFWELFAREGOODSAVERAGEREPLACEMENTRATEINPUBLICANDPRIVATEPENSIONSYSTEMSIIISTRUCTUREOFTHEPOPULATIONSHARESOFPRIME2559ANDOLDAGE60POPULATIONRATIOOFLIFEEXPECTANCYAT60TOLIFEEXPECTANCYATBIRTH16TOTESTFORTHEHYPOTHESISDISCUSSEDABOVE,WEALSOINTRODUCEDINTERACTIONTERMS
32、THEFIRSTTERMISTHEPRODUCTOFPUBLICHEALTHSPENDINGRATIOWITHTHEREPLACEMENTRATETHISCAPTURESTHECOMBINEDEFFECTOFTHESUBSIDIZATIONOFHEALTHGOODSANDPENSIONINCOMEBYCREATINGANEXCESSINCOMEATOLDERAGES,ITISEXPECTEDTOHAVEAPOSITIVESIGNONTOTALHOUSEHOLDSAVINGSTHESECONDTERMISTHEPRODUCTOFTHEREPLACEMENTRATEBYTHESHAREOFTHEO
33、LDPOPULATIONWHILEAHIGHREPLACEMENTRATEMAYDISCOURAGESAVINGFORTHEACTIVEPOPULATION,ITMAYALSOCONTRIBUTETOGENERATEEXCESSINCOMEAFTERRETIREMENTTHEEMPIRICALTESTCOVERS18OECDCOUNTRIESANDTHEPERIOD19702003ANNEX1PROVIDESDESCRIPTIVESTATISTICSONTHEDIFFERENTVARIABLESUSEDINTHEREGRESSIONSTHEESTIMATESWERECARRIEDOUTUSIN
34、GCOUNTRYFIXEDEFFECTSATIMETRENDCAPTURESANEVENTUALSPURIOUSCORRELATIONAMONGSAVINGRATESANDEXPLANATORYVARIABLESALTERNATIVESPECIFICATIONSAREALSOPROVIDEDINANNEXWEALSOPRESENTSEPARATEREGRESSIONSFORTHESUBSETCOUNTRIESWITHMAINLYPAYGANDFULLYFUNDEDSYSTEMS译文消费结构、福利商品和退休收入链接老化的拼图1动机在生命周期的主要框架模型经济学中常用的关系了解老化、消费与储蓄行为
35、。主要的预测,生命周期理论倾向于支持大量的实证,拼图依然存在。文献提出了四个主要类型的困惑一个老化消费难题,是一个老化储蓄难题,储蓄资本化难题和储蓄长寿难题。第一个难题涉及消费趋势下降的晚年。这程式化处理所有OECD国家中观察到的事实,似乎与这个想法相矛盾家庭来保持自己的存储在退休后的消费水平。第二,高水平的储蓄在观察到晚年。另一个谜题是各国提供优厚的PAYG系统和卫生保健系统福利物品有最高的私人储蓄率。相反,在某些国家,养老基金十分发育,私人储蓄率非常低。最后,提高寿命的持续时间增加的退休期间能够增加存款比率。然而,当了实证检验,标志长寿的传统的储蓄方程中的变量通常是被否定的。大量的文献的基
36、础上,提出了一种解释为每一个难题,但是,据我们所知,还没有企图带来的所有大家聚在一起,综合考虑。本文认为,我们认为四拼图之间的内在联系。作为讨论下面的互动、消费和提供福利货物和水平的退休收入的确可以很大一部分解释这种现象。为了突出角色,他们决定因素的联系,这将有助于家庭储蓄行为的比较、健康和养老金系统的两个乡下的群组带有PAYG系统和那些资金充足的系统。其他传统储蓄因素也必须把成画,特别是李嘉图的角色之间补偿私人和公共储蓄,以及收入。文章首先分析相关经验事实在消费储蓄和养老金上述难题而产生的。为了指导有关我们凭直觉的关键因素之间的关系,我们开发在第3部分,一个两期生命周期模型中我们认为最优福利
37、消费、福利转移支付,慷慨的养老保险制度和长寿。在第四节,我们回到事实,得到一些可能的解释的老龄化拼图。在第五部分,我们将计量小组估计的关系将二者整合理论框架,来自其他附加效果和控制的实证文献中常常使用。最后一章结束。2老化的困惑消费、储蓄和长寿最有用的框架来研究之间的联系,老化、消费和储蓄也就是生活循环模型莫迪里亚尼和BRUMBERG,2000年,佛雷德里曼,1957年。它最简单的版本,个人就住在两期。在前一时期各人挣工资从他/她的劳动供给和在第二个阶段人退休了。个人扑出了其工资收入消费提供第二节以不变的利率例如,利率不随储蓄的水平。主要结果是与西方的消费该处个人必拯救以便转换购买力的退休期间
38、。但是一些经验事实、养老金和消费储蓄不相容的基本生命周期模型。第一个难题关注老化和消费之间的联系。大量的文献发现消费下跌,这个事实明显在退休时有所矛盾与生命周期消费进行平滑处理。同样在一些国家例句。美国、英国和意大利,在不同的时间、不同的措施的开支。这程式化的事实是显示在图1,有关家庭消费水平由年龄为美国和一些欧洲国家。3老化消费难题家庭调查数据表明,总消耗量驼峰形剖面显示了在年龄层中,这是并不等于说消费驼峰形轮廓在生命周期的存在的主要原因队列和时间的影响。但是,他们认为纯消费平滑假说只是部分重量由微观数据。这个谜题的若干解释问题提出了一些建议。允许不确定性、银行、本戴尔和一个硝皮匠西门的家里
39、作客1998建议不可预料的震动退休的时候附近出现能解释其倒在消费背景的生命周期模型。简曜辉,斯金纳和BERNHEIM2001认为不能充分地预见的工人的收入下降有关的退休。赫德届时和罗韦德尔比一下2003认为消费下降了仍然可以解释为扩展版本的生命周期模式,在某些工作消费支出停在退休和市场购买商品与服务是由家里代替国内生产。后者可能是长期护理服务的情况下,经常在家庭非正式的提供。然而,在最近的纸,赫德届时和罗韦德尔比一下2006认为像其他人一样,认为减少在消费无法解释生命周期的简单模型和前瞻性的消费者。娱乐或是等诸多因素影响身体不好也可以解释下降支出。通过这些线索,史密斯2007认为退休是自愿的,
40、很大程度上反映疾病状态和冗余且可能会有负面财富冲击。第二个谜密切相关,尽管不是以前的等价物。一种特定的稳定的退休收入和消费下降、积极的储蓄在老年龄见BORSCHSUPAN可以观察到苏达权等,2000BORSCHSUPAN和冬季,2001。然而,它是一个谜,个人不会预料到这个事实,并且继续保存在老年,特别是在货物慷慨的福利国家高养老金替代率和卫生保健费用。布卢姆孙俐。2003和SHESHINSKI2004建议,更高的平均寿命可能增加需要额外的预防储蓄,尽管改善健康的影响的长度护理愉悦的工作生活。米切尔摩尔和1998也认为美国人不准备不充分对于退休夫妇要需要保存20的年收入从1992年退休的时候6
41、2有一个置换率的61。一个女人会需要保存32她收入中有一个置换率的62岁的54。他们总结道,尽管看似大积累总退休财富,大部分年长的每个家庭将很难维持目前的石油消耗水平衡量,在退休没有额外的储蓄。BERNHEIM孙俐。2001说他们的研究结果很难与总账生命周期模型和他们更有可能是由于家庭行为不依理性,有远见的优化。KHITATRAKUN和SCHOLZ2004注意税收优惠,如个人退休帐户和养老金是不需要的,而且可能会导致过剩储蓄。最后,在很大程度上影响了诱发,但不是大量文献证明,节约旧年龄原因遗赠动机的存在性。第三个难题产生的国家的这一事实系统全面资助最低私人储蓄的利率。原则上,引入一种资金充足的
42、养老保险制度足以引起下降的人口置换率的PAYG系统和,根据生命周期模式,增加总储蓄。图2显示尽管储蓄率的稳步减少各国PAYG系统的国家不断有显示更高的家庭储蓄率已经扩大了,两者之间的差距。4储蓄资本难题在第一个重要的纸,FELDSTEIN1974年突出了消极的联系和家庭储蓄PAYG养老保险制度。但是,后来影响的实证检验在家庭储蓄的养老金制度产生了不同的结果例如。爱德华兹,1996CALLENTHIMANN,1997科塞提说,1995,SCHMIDTHEBBEL墨菲和MUSALEM,2004。确认FELDSTEIN早些时候,爱德华兹的结果1996年发现,社会保障制度有一个负面影响,对私人储蓄使用
43、样本的32个国家发达国家和发展中国家。BAILLU和REISEN1997还发现一个积极的和统计学显著性影响的养老金基金对储蓄使用一组11个国家198293期间。在最近的研究中,沃斯和BURTLESS2004没有找到一个进行计量私人储蓄显著影响购买一套11个国家19712000的期间。墨菲和MUSALEM2004年被认为是43个国家的19602002期间的强制性的贡献,发现资助增加国家养老金制度节约。它可以是非常困难的指出,由于比较这些研究非均匀性的样品和估计方法。养老金制度的引进与可能会减少,增加或保持中立储蓄有几个潜在的解释。在确定的好处,如果养老金的财富可视为取代私人积累和因此可以减少家庭
44、储蓄当养老金系统效果的方法。此外,退休金是通常的形式支付养老金。没有退休养老金,雇员将被迫退休资金积累较多的时期。因此,通过提供养老金、养老金计划能减少储蓄。另一种解释与更早些退休的选择,因为个人被迫退休早节省更多的为了资助更长一段退休。不完美的资本市场还能预防家庭借自如,从而迫使他们比起其它多存钱。在这种情况下,只要强制私有的养老基金可能会增加金融深化和减少借贷约束他们将会减少家庭储蓄业务。第四之谜是影响相关影响寿命。布卢姆孙俐。2003认为,应该获得更高的寿命增加预防储蓄,但常常实证研究表明了相反的符号。这可能会被看作是一种储蓄长寿难题”。最近,布卢姆孙俐。2006也表明,缺乏强有力的储蓄
45、退休的刺激因素,比如在PAYG系统中,一种长寿增加不会引发更高的存款。5年复一年的老化困惑经验测试吸取来自以上结果,我们现在的位置来测试某一减少模型的体现两个长期储蓄利率订价的因素,提出的理论模型其他的因素。规格占各种各样的储蓄因素出现在文学例句。爱德华兹,2003SCHMIDTHEBBEL和SERVEN,LOAYZA,2000MUSALEM2004。这个列表如下一短期和宏观经济因素公共预算平衡GDP人均国内生产总值的增长长期的实际利率二社保和福利系统因素比公共卫生支出的家庭收入代理提供福利物品平均置换率在公众和私人养老金系统三人口结构25至59主要股票的和养老60人口比60寿命多16寿命。测试假说上面的讨论,我们还介绍了因素交互作用。第一项是产品的公共卫生支出比率与人口置换率。这捕捉募捐资助的综合作用的健康商品和养老金收入。通过创建一个多余的收入,是旧年龄是一个积极的信号将总家庭储蓄业务。第二学期的产品透过分享人口置换率的旧的人口。而高置换率可能会让你攒钱买活跃的人口,它也可能导致超过退休后产生收入。实证测试包括18经合组织OECD国家19702003时期。附件1提供了描述性统计在不同的变量用于回归。估计的使用国家进行了固定后果。一个长期趋势,假相关性撷取一个最终的储蓄率和解释变量备份规格,提供了附件。同时也讨论独立国家的回归函数主要PAYG和资金充足的系统。
