1、技术分析介绍,亚当索拉博国际技术分析联盟主席，CQS技术分析总监北京2011年9月6日,内容,什么是技术分析技术分析的历史技术分析 对 基本面经济/金融分析技术分析研究的对象及其假设技术分析的类型（图表、振荡指标、型态与分形）趋势、反转、周期运用技术分析进行交易与投资：关于概率以及出市入市的价位对技术分析之批判附录推荐阅读资料及学术参考,2,什么是技术分析？,“技术分析是指分析证券历史价格从而预测未来价格走势的过程。”市场预测只建立在价格、时间、成交量、未平仓合约信息的基础之上而忽略如盈利、现金流、资产负债表等基本面数据,3,技术分析的历史,技术分析的起源可追溯到几百年前已知的最古老的技术分析
2、方法由本间宗久（Munehisa Homma）所发明，并在18世纪早期应用于大米市场技术分析在美国的发展可追溯到查尔士道（Charles H. Dow）从1900年开始在华尔街日报发表的技术分析论文,4,技术分析的历史,从此以后，更多的技术分析工具得到了发展，而且越来越强调计算机辅助技术。,5,技术分析 VS 基本面经济/金融分析,基本面分析利用宏观和微观的经济数据来预测国家、企业、个人的宏观和微观结果。 他们使用基本面数据来构造未来现金流和投资回报的模型。技术分析则使用价格、时间、交易活动数据，来预测未来价格范围和活动的概率。 我们使用技术数据来建立交易和投资策略。,6,技术分析的研究对象,
3、价格=任何交易活跃的证券、货币或大宗商品的价格历史时间=年度、月度、每周、每日、日间数据交易数据=成交量以及未平仓合约,7,技术分析的假设,市场价格反映了任何时刻的所有已知信息。市场价格会对额外的信息做出反应。市场参与者不断变化的情绪和活动会留下一连串变化着的价格和市场活动的踪迹，用技术分析为之建造模型，可预测未来的价格范围和变动。,8,技术分析的类型（图表、振荡指标、型态与分形）,重要价位（依重要程度排列）1）现价=当前的交易价2）收市价=某一日（或其他时段）交易活动结束前最后一笔交易的成交价格3）开市价=某时段开始的价格4）最高价=该时段内最高的成交价格；最低价=该时段内最低的成交价格,9
4、,收市价、开市价、最高价、最低价,收市价=一日（或其他时段）交易活动结束前最后一笔交易的成交价格开市价=某交易时段开始的价格最高价=该时段内最高的成交价格最低价=该时段内最低的成交价格,10,最高价 = 2.5,收市价= 1.8,开市价 = 2.2,最低价= 1.5,在这个交易时段里，市场开市价为2.2，最高价为2.5，最低价为1.5，最后收于1.8。技术分析师在为下个交易时段制定交易策略时会考虑这些价格水平。,图表的类型,线形图柱状图K 线图OX图市场概览 (又译四度空间),11,线形图,12,线形图只使用收盘价的历史记录这类型的图包含了有限但关键的信息就价格历史而言，长期数据在半对数刻度中
5、有时候会更有用。,1992年来上海A股指数算术标度,1992年来上海A股指数半对数标度,支撑,支撑 = 预期购买活动集中的价格水平支撑水平可在一系列技术指标基础上识别出来在先前价格最低位或者“突破”的水平上常常能看到支撑现象,13,上海A股指数-2008年8月-2011年6月,横向支撑,趋势支撑,阻力 = 预期出售活动集中的价格水平支撑水平可在一系列技术指标基础上识别出来在先前价格最高位或者“突破”的水平上常常能看到阻力现象,阻力,14,上海A股指数-2008年8月-2011年6月,横向阻力,趋势阻力,柱状图,柱状图包含开市价、最高价、最低价、收市价的信息。柱状图展示了每个交易时段的价格范围和
6、清晰度。,15,2006年以来S&P500指数算术标度,K线图,16,阴阳烛图包含开市价、最高价、最低价、收市价的信息。用不同的颜色标识上升或下跌的交易日，从而强调每个市场时段的不同心理。,连续几个阴阳烛的组合能有效反映变化着的市场心理,17,阴阳烛图,2011年2月以来欧元兑美元,锤头牛市形态,顶部三星熊市形态,前进白色三兵牛市形态,18,OX图,点数图忽略时间因素，只记录交易价格水平的实质变化。点数图为技术分析师提供了忽略时间因素而分析市场行为的另一种途径。,2006年6月以来黄金走势,点数图凸显支撑和阻力水平,19,市场概览,市场轮廓图以时间分配的形式记录成交价格，一个交易时段里不同分段
7、的每个成交价格用不同的字母来表示。,市场概览,市场概览图对于在证券交易所交易的证券尤为有效，每个成交价格的成交量都可以得到利用。,20,成交量分析,成交量是某一特定交易时段或价格水平上成交的证券价值。,21,2008年6月以来的Google,价格未达到预期高位，人们纷纷抛售，导致成交量出现峰值,价格在$350左右时，买入者涌入市场，导致成交量增大,未平仓量分析,未平仓量是指某特定市场在某交易时段结束时，多方所持有或空方所抛空的契约口数。,22,2011年2月以来的可可期货,下跌趋势加剧，未平仓量增加，从而强化熊市预期,市场参与者获利，未平仓量减少,趋势分析,市场上存在趋势。顺应趋势而持有的仓位
8、比逆势而为更有可能获得盈利。技术分析师试图使用几何和数学技术来识别市场的趋势及其范围。,23,2002年-2009年S&P 500指数,2008年8月持续已久的上涨趋势出现转折，标志着大跌的开始,出现上升趋势前有好几个买入机会,趋势分析,技术分析师可使用移动平均数来使数据平滑化，从而识别趋势和趋势变动。,24,2002年-2009年S&P 500指数,2008年8月长期上升趋势戛然而止，慢速快速移动平均线的交叉预示着跌势到来,从200天移动平均价格可看出上升趋势，在上升趋势出现前有很多买入机会,反转分析,每个趋势结束时会发生反转，市场先前的方向动摇不定，趋势的变化日益明显。技术分析师试图识别常
9、见的反转形态以及反转市场行为的信号，从而察觉市场方向改变的预警。,25,牛势锤子形态和双重谷底标志着2000年黄金市场熊势的反转，当时价格为255美元,2000年7月至2001年6月的黄金,形态分析,随着时间的推移，市场往往会呈现常见的行为形态。技术分析师试图识别常见的价格形态，从而制定利用这些价格形态的交易策略。,26,无法突破先前更高价格熊势形态,旗形是“持续形态”，预示着市场重拾先前趋势前会有一段“整固”形态。,牛势“倒置头肩形态”预示先前熊市的结束,成功“突破”标志着上升趋势的持续,分形分析,随着时间的推移，趋势通常会呈现出常见的价格形态和分形行为。技术分析师试图识别价格分形，利用某特
10、定趋势或回调的演变来制定一些交易系统。,27,分形分析,1996年至2009年标普500的艾略特波浪图,28,周期分析,所有市场、多重时间段都会呈现出周期性。技术分析师试图识别市场周期，从而制定一些交易系统来利用每个周期以及该周期与其他时间周期之间可能存在的谐波。,29,振荡指标,振荡指标把历史上的价格信息放进数学模型中，使数据平滑化，同时突出动能和市场特征的改变。,30,相对强弱指数从70%以上跌到70%以下=熊市信号,相对强弱指数从30%以下上升至30%以上=牛市信号,从2010年7月至2011年6月日元兑美元,振荡指标,有很多不同的振荡指标研究（不下一百种）每一种研究都试图突出价格和市场
11、行为的不同方面有些更适合趋势市场，有些更适合横向市场有些振荡指标甚至寻求比较趋势市场和横向市场，比如动向指数（DMI）,31,2010年7月至2011年7月黄金的动向指数图表,动向指数预示着不断加强的上升趋势,动向指数一开始预示减弱的上升趋势，而后转为较弱的下降趋势,动向指数预示着不断加强的上升趋势,不断减弱的上升趋势,利用技术分析做交易,技术分析师使用一系列的技巧，从而达到如下目标：判断当前市场行为的特性趋势，调整，抑或反转识别适合持有新的多头或空头仓位的关键市场价位；既呈现出良好的成功概率，又有有效平衡盈利潜力与止损的风险回报比率对所有交易仓位进行风险管理，以后市价格变动为借鉴，根据变化中
12、的市场条件调整持续的技术策略,32,利用技术分析做交易,技术分析师交易原则 #1 趋势是你的朋友 2010年2月在1050美元的价位上购买黄金判断当前市场行为的特性市场上升趋势明显，有卖空迹象。识别重要的市场水平购进多头仓位的时机应该是：上升趋势低谷附近1040美元，以及向上倾斜的移动平均线1024美元，因为随后市价将恢复到原来的上升趋势，从而带来大笔盈利。风险管理 下止损单的位置应该比趋势线和移动平均线稍低1010美元，若升势结束会有小额损失。,33,利用技术分析做交易,技术分析师交易原则 #1 趋势是你的朋友 2010年2月在1050美元的价位上购买黄金潜在盈利 接下来的高价分别是1127
13、美元、1161美元、1225美元若在1050美元价位上购入，则潜在盈利分别是77美元、111美元、175美元潜在损失若在1010美元价位上实现止损，则损失40美元风险回报比率77/40 （近 2:1）1127111/40 （近 2.8 : 1） 1161175/40 （近 4.4 : 1）1225不同概率带来的结果如果就第一个价格目标而言，只有50%实现了上述交易，那么每次交易平均盈利仍为37美元通过设置特定的入市和离市的价位，技术分析师就能利用这些概率并从中获益。,34,利用技术分析做交易,35,技术分析师交易原则 #1 趋势是你的朋友 2010年2月在1050美元的价位上购买黄金,2010
14、年2月 $1050,后来也出现大量类似的风险/回报技术性购入信号，颇具吸引力,技术分析的限制,依赖准确及时的市场数据在交易活跃的市场最为有效有些技巧较为主观视觉技巧和数学技巧都会应用到技术分析不是“水晶球”技术分析师无法预知未来。他们只是尝试在过去的价格和市场历史基础上，估计未来发展的概率，从而判别入市离市的明智时机。,36,谢谢,www.ifta.orgAdam Sorab IFTA PresidentHead of Technical ResearchCQS (UK) LLP5th FloorTel: +44 20 7201 249933Grosvenor PlaceFax: +44 20
15、 7201 1161London SW1X 7HY Mob: +44(0)7785 341 991 United KingdomWeb: ww.cqs.ch,附录1：推荐书目,Murphy, John J. - Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets - New York Institute of Finance/Prentice Hall 1999du Plessis, Jeremy - The Definitive Guide to Point and Figure - Harriman House Ltd.Plummer, Tony - F
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