1、本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目FARMINCOMEVARIABILITYANDTHESUPPLYOFOFFFARMLABOR出处ZHONGGUOSHEHUIKEXUE,1999,NO2作者ASHOKKMISHRAANDBARRYKIFFARMERSARERISKAVERSE,GREATERFARMINCOMEVARIABILITYSHOULDINCREASEOFFFARMLABORSUPPLYTHISEFFECTISCONFIRMEDFORASAMPLEOFKANSASFARMERSOFFFARMEMPLOYMENTOFFARMERSANDTHEIRSPOUSESISALSOFOUNDTOBES
2、IGNIFICANTLYINFLUENCEDBYFARMEXPERIENCE,OFFFARMWORKEXPERIENCE,FARMSIZE,LEVERAGE,EFFICIENCY,ANDFARMSPECIFICEDUCATIONINADDITION,FARMOPERATORSANDSPOUSESWHORECEIVESIGNIFICANTINCOMESUPPORTTHROUGHGOVERNMENTFARMPROGRAMSARELESSLIKELYTOWORKOFFTHEFARMTHISMAYSUGGESTTHATPOLICYCHANGESREDUCINGFARMINCOMESUPPORTPAYM
3、ENTSMAYINCREASEOFFFARMEMPLOYMENTOFFARMERSANDTHEIRSPOUSESKEYWORDSINCOMEVARIABILITY,OFFFARMLABORSUPPLY,RISKTHETOTALNUMBEROFFARMSINTHEUNITEDSTATESDECREASEDBY635BETWEEN1950AND1993OVERTHESAMEPERIOD,THETOTALNUMBEROFFARMOPERATORSDECREASEDBY189USDEPARTMENTOFCOMMERCETHEPRIMARYREASONSFORTHESECHANGESARETHATTHE
4、SUPPLYOFAGRICULTURALPRODUCTSGREWFASTERDUETOTECHNICALCHANGETHANDEMANDANDRELATIVEWAGERATESROSEINNONFARMSECTORSTHESECHANGESWEREPARALLELEDBYSIGNIFICANTLYGREATERWORKOFFTHEFARMBYUSFARMERSIN1992,OVER83OFUSFARMERSWORKEDOFFTHEFARMMORETHAN100DAYSPERYEAR,UPFROM62IN1974USDEPARTMENTOFCOMMERCEECONOMICTHEORYMAINTA
5、INSTHATRISKNEUTRALFARMERSWILLDIVIDETHEIRLABORSUPPLYBETWEENFARMANDNONFARMEMPLOYMENTOPPORTUNITIESSUCHTHATEXPECTEDMARGINALRETURNSAREEQUALIZEDIFEXPECTEDMARGINALRETURNSAREGREATERINONEOPPORTUNITY,MORELABORWILLBEDEVOTEDTOTHATALTERNATIVEHOWEVER,IFPRODUCERSARERISKAVERSEANDPERCEIVETHEVARIANCEOFWAGESOREARNINGS
6、TOBEGREATERINONEOCCUPATIONTHANANOTHER,THEYWILLALLOCATELESSTIMETOTHERISKYJOBANDWILLBEWILLINGTOACCEPTLOWERWAGESINTHELESSRISKYALTERNATIVECHANGESINTHERISKINESSRISKINESSOFEMPLOYMENTALTERNATIVESTHUSCHANGETHEALLOCATIONOFLABORTHE1980SARECOMMONLYPERCEIVEDTOHAVEBEENAVOLATILEPERIODFORUSAGRICULTUREFARMEARNINGS,
7、DEBT,ANDASSETHOLDINGSWEREHIGHLYVARIABLEINTHEEARLY1980SSUCHCHANGESBROUGHTABOUTINCREASEDVARIABILITYOFFARMWAGESANDTHUSMAYHAVEINFLUENCEDOFFFARMLABORSUPPLIESSCHULTZPOINTEDOUTTHATOFFFARMEMPLOYMENTISANIMPORTANTMEANSBYWHICHFARMERSANDTHEIRSPOUSESMAYATTEMPTTOREDUCETHEVARIANCEOFTOTALINCOMERECENTSTUDIESHAVESHOW
8、NTHATOFFFARMEMPLOYMENTISINFLUENCEDBYANUMBEROFDEMOGRAPHICANDECONOMICFACTORSHOWEVER,LIMITEDATTENTIONHASBEENGIVENTOTHEROLEOFFARMINCOMEVARIABILITYINEMPIRICALSTUDIESINASURVEYOFFARMERSATTITUDESANDMOTIVATIONS,BARLETTFOUNDTHATTHEPRIMARYREASONTHATFARMERSWORKEDOFFTHEFARMWASTHEVARIABILITY,RISK,ANDUNCERTAINTYAS
9、SOCIATEDWITHFARMINCOMEHOWEVER,HERANALYSISDIDNOTEXPLICITLYMODELOFFFARMLABORSUPPLYSANDER1986FOUNDTHATTOTALINCOMEWASSIGNIFICANTLYLESSVARIABLEWHENFARMERSANDTHEIRSPOUSESWORKEDOFFTHEFARMROSENFELDSUGGESTEDTHATOFFFARMWORKBYFARMWIVESWASAMEANSOFRESPONDINGTOTHERISKINESSOFAGRICULTURALINCOMEBYDIVERSIFYINGINCOMES
10、OURCESHUFFMANFOUNDTHATTHECROSSSECTIONALVARIANCEOFGROSSFARMSALESWASSIGNIFICANTLYCORRELATEDWITHOFFFARMLABORSUPPLYHOWEVER,INHISCROSSSECTIONALANALYSISOFCOUNTYAVERAGEDATA,THEVARIANCEOFSALESREPRESENTEDSIZEDISTRIBUTIONEFFECTSRATHERTHANTHEVOLATILITYOFINCOMEOVERTIMEFURTAN,VANKOOTEN,ANDTHOMPSONFOUNDTHATTHENET
11、WORTHOFFARMHOUSEHOLDSWASASIGNIFICANTDETERMINANTOFOFFFARMLABORSUPPLYHOWEVER,THEIRSTUDYDIDNOTCONSIDERTHEVARIATIONOFWORTHORINCOMETHEOBJECTIVEOFTHISSTUDYISTOEVALUATETHEEFFECTOFFARMINCOMEVARIABILITYONTHEOFFFARMLABORSUPPLYDECISIONSOFASAMPLEOFKANSASFARMERSANDTHEIRSPOUSESTHEANALYSISAPPLIESTOBITESTIMATIONTEC
12、HNIQUESTOACONSIDERATIONOFOFFFARMLABORSUPPLYRECENTRESEARCHBYHUFFMANANDLANGEANDBYLASSANDGEMPESAWHASARGUEDTHATTHEOFFFARMLABORSUPPLYDECISIONSOFFARMERSANDTHEIRSPOUSESAREJOINTLYDETERMINEDINTHISLIGHT,ANEMPIRICALMODELTHATALLOWSFORSUCHJOINTDECISIONMAKINGISESTIMATEDUSINGASIMPLIFIEDSIMULTANEOUSEQUATIONSTOBITES
13、TIMATOREMPIRICALAPPLICATIONTHISSTUDYUTILIZESDATACOLLECTEDFROMASURVEYOF1,963KANSASFARMHOUSEHOLDSINSEPTEMBER1992THESURVEYDATAWEREMATCHEDTOFARMRECORDSINTHEKANSASFARMMANAGEMENTASSOCIATIONDATABANKOFTHE1,963FARMSSURVEYED,618SURVEYSWERERETURNEDFARMSTHATDIDNOTHAVEINCOMERECORDSFORATLEASTEIGHTOFTHEPRECEDINGTE
14、NYEARSWEREDROPPEDFROMTHESAMPLEINADDITION,SEVERALFARMSWEREDROPPEDFROMTHESAMPLEBECAUSEOFINCOMPLETESURVEYRESPONSESORFARMRECORDSTHISLEFTATOTALOF300FARMS,MOSTOFWHICHWEREOBSERVEDINBOTH1991AND19925INTOTAL,599OBSERVATIONSWEREUSEDINTHEANALYSISSUMMARYSTATISTICSANDDEFINITIONSOFTHEVARIABLESUTILIZEDINTHEANALYSIS
15、AREPRESENTEDINTABLE1INLIGHTOFTHEPOTENTIALENDOGENEITYOFLABORSUPPLYDECISIONSOFFARMERSANDTHEIRSPOUSES,THEBOOTSTRAPPEDSIMULTANEOUSEQUATIONTOBITESTIMATOR2,000REPLICATIONSWASAPPLIEDTHEEMPIRICALMODELSRELATEDTHETOTALNUMBEROFHOURSWORKEDPERYEARTOTHEOBSERVABLEFARMANDOPERATORVARIABLESOFFFARMLABORSUPPLYEQUATIONS
16、WEREESTIMATEDFORBOTHTHEFARMOPERATORANDTHEOPERATORSSPOUSEPARAMETERESTIMATES,DERIVATIVES,ANDSUMMARYSTATISTICSAREPRESENTEDINTABLE2INCONTRASTTOTHERESULTSOFHUFFMANANDLANGEANDOFLASSANDGEMPESAW,THERESULTSDONOTAPPEARTOSUGGESTTHATTHELABORSUPPLYDECISIONSOFFARMERSANDTHEIRSPOUSESAREJOINTLYDETERMINED,ATLEASTFORT
17、HISSAMPLETHESPOUSESOFFFARMLABOREFFORTDOESNOTAPPEARTOSIGNIFICANTLYINFLUENCETHEOPERATORSSUPPLYOFLABORTOOFFFARMEMPLOYMENTACTIVITIESLIKEWISE,THEFARMERSHOURSWORKEDOFFTHEFARMDONOTSIGNIFICANTLYINFLUENCETHEOFFFARMLABORSUPPLYOFSPOUSESANIMPORTANTRESULTISTHATFARMINCOMEVARIABILITY,ASREPRESENTEDBYTHECOEFFICIENTO
18、FVARIATIONONFARMINCOME,HASASIGNIFICANTPOSITIVEEFFECTONTHEOFFFARMLABORSUPPLYOFFARMERSTHISRESULTCONFIRMSEXPECTATIONSINTHATINCREASESINTHEVARIABILITYOFFARMEARNINGSEVOKESIGNIFICANTINCREASESINTHEOFFFARMLABORSUPPLYOFFARMERSA10INCREASEINTHECOEFFICIENTOFVARIATIONFORFARMEARNINGSINCREASESTHEEXPECTEDVALUEOFOFFF
19、ARMLABORSUPPLYBYTHEBOOTSTRAPPEDSIMULTANEOUSEQUATIONTOBITESTIMATOR2,000REPLICATIONSWASAPPLIEDTHEEMPIRICALMODELSRELATEDTHETOTALNUMBEROFHOURSWORKEDPERYEARTOTHEOBSERVABLEFARMANDOPERATORVARIABLESOFFFARMLABORSUPPLYEQUATIONSWEREESTIMATEDFORBOTHTHEFARMOPERATORANDTHEOPERATORSSPOUSEPARAMETERESTIMATES,DERIVATI
20、VES,ANDSUMMARYSTATISTICSAREPRESENTEDINTABLE2INCONTRASTTOTHERESULTSOFHUFFMANANDLANGEANDOFLASSANDGEMPESAW,THERESULTSDONOTAPPEARTOSUGGESTTHATTHELABORSUPPLYDECISIONSOFFARMERSANDTHEIRSPOUSESAREJOINTLYDETERMINED,ATLEASTFORTHISSAMPLETHESPOUSESOFFFARMLABOREFFORTDOESNOTAPPEARTOSIGNIFICANTLYINFLUENCETHEOPERAT
21、ORSSUPPLYOFLABORTOOFFFARMEMPLOYMENTACTIVITIESLIKEWISE,THEFARMERSHOURSWORKEDOFFTHEFARMDONOTSIGNIFICANTLYINFLUENCETHEOFFFARMLABORSUPPLYOFSPOUSESANIMPORTANTRESULTISTHATFARMINCOMEVARIABILITY,ASREPRESENTEDBYTHECOEFFICIENTOFVARIATIONONFARMINCOME,HASASIGNIFICANTPOSITIVEEFFECTONTHEOFFFARMLABORSUPPLYOFFARMER
22、STHISRESULTCONFIRMSEXPECTATIONSINTHATINCREASESINTHEVARIABILITYOFFARMEARNINGSEVOKESIGNIFICANTINCREASESINTHEOFFFARMLABORSUPPLYOFFARMERSA10INCREASEINTHECOEFFICIENTOFVARIATIONFORFARMEARNINGSINCREASESTHEEXPECTEDVALUEOFOFFFARMLABORSUPPLYBYALMOSTTWENTYONEHOURSPERYEARFORFARMERSINCONTRAST,FARMINCOMEVARIATION
23、ISNOTSTATISTICALLYSIGNIFICANTINTHELABORSUPPLYFUNCTIONFORSPOUSESYEARSOFFARMEXPERIENCEISASTATISTICALLYSIGNIFICANTDETERMINANTOFTHEOFFFARMLABORSUPPLYOFFARMERSANDTHEIRSPOUSESCONFIRMINGEXPECTATIONS,MOREFARMINGEXPERIENCECORRESPONDSTOLESSWORKOFFTHEFARMTHISLIKELYREFLECTSTHEFACTTHATFARMINGEXPERIENCEBUILDSFARM
24、INGSPECIFICHUMANCAPITALANDTHUSRAISESFARMINGSRELATIVEWAGESCOUNTERTOEXPECTATIONS,EDUCATIONDOESNOTHAVEASIGNIFICANTEFFECTONTHEOFFFARMLABORSUPPLYOFFARMERSORTHEIRSPOUSESTHISMAYSUGGEST,ATLEASTFORTHISSAMPLE,THATMARGINALRETURNSFROMACADEMICEDUCATIONARETHESAMEINBOTHFARMANDNONFARMEMPLOYMENTACTIVITIESOFFFARMWORK
25、EXPERIENCEISSIGNIFICANTLYCORRELATEDWITHOFFFARMWORKFORBOTHTHEOPERATORANDSPOUSEFURTHER,THEEFFECTOFOFFFARMEXPERIENCEONOFFFARMLABORSUPPLYISRELATIVELYLARGEANADDITIONALYEAROFOFFFARMEXPERIENCEINCREASESOFFFARMLABORSUPPLYBY17HOURSPERYEARFORTHEFARMERAND425HOURSPERYEARFORTHESPOUSEMOREOFFFARMEXPERIENCEIMPLIESAG
26、REATERACCUMULATIONOFHUMANCAPITALSPECIFICTOOFFFARMWORKANDTHUSSUGGESTSLARGERRELATIVERETURNSTOOFFFARMWORKSEVERALFARMCHARACTERISTICSARESIGNIFICANTDETERMINANTSOFTHEOFFFARMLABORSUPPLYOFFARMERSANDTHEIRSPOUSESFARMSIZEISNEGATIVELYCORRELATEDWITHFARMERSOFFFARMLABORSUPPLYOPERATORSOFLARGERFARMSLIKELYHAVELESSFLEX
27、IBILITYINSUPPLYINGLABORTOOFFFARMWORKACTIVITIESTHANDOOPERATORSOFSMALLFARMSINCONTRAST,FARMSIZEISNOTSIGNIFICANTLYRELATEDTOTHEOFFFARMWORKDECISIONSOFSPOUSESTHISRESULTISCONSISTENTWITHTHEFINDINGSOFSUMNERANDOFLASSANDGEMPESAWTHELEVERAGEDEBTSTOASSETSPOSITIONOFTHEFARMISASIGNIFICANTDETERMINANTOFOFFFARMLABORSUPP
28、LIESFARMERSANDSPOUSESWHOOPERATEFARMSWITHHIGHERDEBTTOASSETRATIOSSUPPLYMORELABORTOTHEOFFFARMSECTORTHISRESULTISCONSISTENTWITHTHEFINDINGSOFFURTAN,VANKOOTEN,ANDTHOMPSONMILESTOTHENEARESTTOWNWASNOTFOUNDTOBEASIGNIFICANTDETERMINANTOFOFFFARMEMPLOYMENTFOREITHERFARMERSORTHEIRSPOUSES6GOVERNMENTPROGRAMSMAYLESSENT
29、HENEEDFOROFFFARMLABORACTIVITIESBYPROVIDINGFARMPRESENCEOFCHILDRENINTHEFARMHOUSEHOLDHASASIGNIFICANTEFFECTONTHEOFFFARMWORKACTIVITIESOFFARMERSANDTHEIRSPOUSESSPOUSESFROMFARMHOUSEHOLDSWITHCHILDRENUNDERAGEFIFTEENARESIGNIFICANTLYLESSLIKELYTOWORKOFFTHEFARMINCONTRAST,HAVINGCHILDRENINTHEHOUSEHOLDRESULTSINMOREL
30、ABORBEINGSUPPLIEDTOOFFFARMEMPLOYMENTOPPORTUNITIESBYFARMERSGRONAUSUGGESTEDTHATWOMENHAVEACOMPARATIVEADVANTAGEINHOMEMAKINGANDCHILDCAREANDTHUSTHATTHEPRESENCEOFCHILDRENINAHOUSEHOLDWASLIKELYTOIMPLYLESSWORKOUTSIDEOFTHEHOMEASIMILARRESULTWASFOUNDBYFURTAN,VANKOOTEN,ANDTHOMPSONANDBYSANDER1983THEFINDINGTHATFARM
31、ERSWITHCHILDRENTENDTOWORKMOREOFFTHEFARMMAYREFLECTTHEPOSSIBILITYTHATSUCHFARMERSWORKMOREINTOTALREEDANDHARFORDFOUNDTHATWORKERSWITHCHILDRENTENDEDTOWORKMOREHOURSCONCLUDINGREMARKSINTHISPAPERWEEVALUATETHEROLEOFFARMINCOMEVARIABILITYANDANUMBEROFOTHERFACTORSINTHEOFFFARMLABORSUPPLYDECISIONSOFASAMPLEOFKANSASFAR
32、MERSANDTHEIRSPOUSESTHEANALYSISUSESASIMULTANEOUSEQUATIONSTOBITESTIMATORTHATACCOUNTSFORJOINTLABORSUPPLYDECISIONSTHERESULTSCONFIRMTHATTHEOFFFARMLABORSUPPLYOFFARMERSISPOSITIVELYCORRELATEDWITHTHERISKINESSOFFARMINCOMESALTHOUGHFARMINCOMERISKHASOFTENBEENADVANCEDASANIMPORTANTFACTORDETERMININGOFFFARMLABORSUPP
33、LYSEE,FOREXAMPLE,BARLETT,THISSTUDYISONEOFTHEFIRSTTODIRECTLYCONFIRMTHISEFFECTFARMERSWHOEXPERIENCEDGREATERFARMINCOMEVARIABILITYINTHE1980SWERESIGNIFICANTLYMORELIKELYTOWORKOFFTHEFARMFARMERSANDSPOUSESWITHMOREFARMINGEXPERIENCEWEREFOUNDTOBELESSLIKELYTOWORKOFFTHEFARMTHEOFFFARMLABORSUPPLYOFFARMERSANDTHEIRSPO
34、USESWASPOSITIVELYCORRELATEDWITHOFFFARMEXPERIENCEALTHOUGHACADEMICEDUCATIONWASNOTSIGNIFICANTLYCORRELATEDWITHOFFFARMLABORSUPPLY,FARMERSTHATHADPARTICIPATEDINFARMSPECIFICEDUCATIONALACTIVITIESWERESIGNIFICANTLYLESSLIKELYTOWORKOFFTHEFARMOPERATORSOFLARGERFARMSWERELESSLIKELYTOWORKOFFTHEFARMTHEOFFFARMLABORSUPP
35、LYOFFARMERSANDTHEIRSPOUSESWASFOUNDTOBESIGNIFICANTLYHIGHERFORHIGHLYLEVERAGEDOPERATIONSSPOUSESWITHSMALLCHILDRENWERESIGNIFICANTLYLESSLIKELYTOWORKOFFTHEFARMFINALLY,FARMERSANDSPOUSESONFARMSTHATRECEIVEDMOREGOVERNMENTSUPPORTWERELESSLIKELYTOPURSUEOFFFARMEMPLOYMENTTHESERESULTSMAYHAVEIMPORTANTIMPLICATIONSFORF
36、ARMPOLICYTHE1996FARMBILLREPLACEDPRICESUPPORTSWITHDIRECTPAYMENTSWHICHARETOBEPHASEDOUTOVERTHENEXTSEVENYEARSANDELIMINATEDACREAGEPLANTINGRESTRICTIONSSUCHCHANGESMAYINCREASEPRICEANDINCOMEVOLATILITYOURRESULTSIMPLYTHATSUCHCHANGESMAYRESULTINMOREOFFFARMWORKBYBOTHFARMERSANDTHEIRSPOUSESFARMPOLICYDEBATESANDRESEA
37、RCHANDEXTENSIONEFFORTSHAVEGIVENRELATIVELYLITTLECONSIDERATIONTOOFFFARMEMPLOYMENTISSUESOURRESULTSSUGGESTTHATTHESEISSUESMAYTAKEONGREATERIMPORTANCEASFARMPOLICIESADJUSTANDMOREFARMFAMILIESSEEKOFFFARMEMPLOYMENTTHISMAYSUGGESTAGREATERROLEFOREXTENSIONEDUCATIONANDRESEARCHPROGRAMSTHATADDRESSOFFFARMEMPLOYMENTISS
38、UES农场收入的变化和劳动力的供应摘要如果农民厌恶风险的变化,更大的农场收入变化会增加劳动力的供应。这种效果已经被堪萨斯的农民证实了。农民就业打工和他们的配偶也发现农业的打工经验,工作经验,农场规模、杠杆、高效、特殊的农业教育有明显影响。此外,农场经营者及他们的配偶通过政府农业支持计划从农场接受重要的收入。这也许暗示政策的改变和农场收入的多少可以激励农民和他们的配偶打工就业。关键词收入变化，劳动力供给，风险从1950年到1993年美国的农场的总数减少到635。在同一时期,农场的运营商总人数降低到189美国商务部。这些不良变化的主要原因是,在非农业部门农产品供给快速增长由于技术变化的需求和相对工
39、资利率上升了。这些改变是与美国农场的农民相对应的。1992年,在美国农场，其中100天共减少83的农民劳动力，在1974年高达62美国商务部。经济理论主张风险将会改变他们在农业和非农业之间的就业机会，因此他们期望平等的劳动供给与边际收益。如果期望有更大的边际收益，那么将有更多的劳动致力于这种选择。然而,如果生产商有风险厌恶的意识，觉得工资或收益在一个职业比另一个更大，那么他们会安排更少的工作时间来冒险，或者更愿意接受较低的工资选择风险较小的工作。风险系数的变化改变劳动的分配。20世纪80年代通常被认为美国农业不稳定的时期。20世纪80年代的早期，农场收入,债务,资产持有量高度变化。这样的变化带
40、来农场的增加,从而可能影响工资和劳动力供给。舒尔茨指出打工就业是农民一个重要手段，他们的配偶可能为了工资协方差降低总收入。最近的研究表明,就业打工受人口和经济因素的影响。在一项调查中,农民的态度和动机，巴特莱特发现主要的原因是农民不愿意去农场工作是因为农场收入变异性、风险和不确定性。然而,她的分析模型不明确劳动力就业。桑德尔1986发现农民总收入变化显著变小当农民及其配偶不去农场工作。罗森菲尔德提出从事农业工作,在应对风险性来源多样化的农业收入，配偶在其中起到关键的影响。霍夫曼发现农场销售总值的横向方差与劳动力的估计值的显著相关。然而,在地方均值横断面收入分析数据,不是随着地区分布销售代表的方
41、差波动影响的，而是随著时间的推移影响的。另外，汤普森发现运输工具和农户的净值决定劳动力供应的一个重要因素。然而,他们的研究并没有考虑价值和收入的变化。本研究的目的是评估堪萨斯农民和他们的配偶判断劳动力供给在农场收入变化中的影响。分析应用杜宾模型估计打工的劳动力的技术。最近的研究以霍夫曼和兰格主张打工的劳动农民提供的决定和他们的配偶共同决定。在这样的观点下,实证模型以允许这样的双方的决定制作是简化估计同时使用杜宾估计方程。实证案例本研究采用了堪萨斯州的农户在1963到1992年九月的调查数据。调查资料和农场记录在堪萨斯农业企业化经营协会数据库里。在1963年农场的调查中,618户被调查退换。那些
42、没有收入记录的农民，至少在前八到十年有样品。此外,几个农场已经下达样稿,调查反应了不完整的农场记录。总的来说，这300个农场,其中大多数是观察1991年都1992年的农场,最近几年的调查被用于分析了。根据劳动外生经济潜力的供应，劳动力的供应和他们的配偶息息相关,杜宾引导的估计模型2000次重复并将其应用。与这经验模型相关的总人数工作时间可观测到的农场的操作变量。农场的劳动供给与打工估计方程操作以及操作人员的配偶。参数估计,摘要统计衍生物，与此相对照的是霍夫曼定理。结果并没有表现出决定劳动供给的是农民和他们的配偶，和对于共同决定的这个样品。打工的配偶的劳动的努力似乎不会显著影响经营者提供的劳动就
43、业活动。同样的,农民的劳动时间,与农民的配偶无明显影响。一个重要的结果是农场收入与农场收入系数的表示有明显的变化，对农民的劳动供给积极的影响。这个结果证实的期望值可能会唤起农民外出打工的积极性，大大提高市场劳动力的供应。在增加10系数为农业收入变化的增加而增加打工的期望值的劳动力每年几乎21小时农民。杜宾引导的估计的期望值在增加10的变化看做为农业收入的增加，劳动供给被重复2000次并将其应用。相比之下,农业收入劳动供给变化中不显著的因素是他们的配偶。多年的农场经验达到统计上的显著水平的决定性力量是劳动力农民和他们的配偶。从农场确认的期望值得出，好的工作相对应的是更加丰富的农业经验。这很可能是
44、反映了这一事实,农业经验会带来人力资本,从而提高耕作的相对的工资。柜台预期时,打工的劳动农民与他们的配偶并没有受教育因素而产生显著性的差异。这可能显示,至少在这个样品边际收益,农场的就业活动理论教育的因素都是相同的。配偶对于打工的工作经验的影响是显著的。此外,打工的经验对劳动力供给打工的影响比较大。一年额外的的打工经验能增加农夫及配偶劳动供给打工时间每年17小时同比上年增长425。这意味着人力资本越多，积累的经验就越多。因而建议更多的农民外出打工，才能积累丰富的经验，得到更加大的回报。决定去农场打工的几个特点是农民和他们的配偶有可观的的劳动力供应。农场大小农民打工与劳动力供应的关键因素。大型农
45、场的操作人员的劳动力供应打工者可能比运营商的小农场不灵活。相比之下,决定农场规模大小与打工者的配偶不是显著相关的。这个结果与萨姆纳的打工者是一致的。供应债务的杠杆资产的位置是农场劳动打工的一个重要决定因素。农民和配偶经营比率较高的农场供应的劳动打工部门更多。这一成果与汤普森的箱型车是一致的。决定打工就业的一个重大的因素是赶到最近的无论是农场或城市的距离。另一个来源收入是政府计划需要的可减少的劳动活动为打工提供农场家庭农场的。两种模式表明,农民和他们的配偶的工作想要有更加大的收入，政府支付农业计划有显著相关性影响。这个结果可能暗示,作为发生在农场立法的发展,农场支付直接减少,可能会导致农民就业和
46、他们的配偶打工就业增加。农场的比例销售额通过家畜和奶类包括在内的劳动供给的模型。家畜和奶类业务通常为劳动密集型行业,这意味着比作物企业的打工工作的机会较少。然而,牲畜、乳品销售之间存在显著相关性在打工就业中是能显现的。农民参与农产品公共推广教育活动和教育研讨会（例如提高农民技能的活动）会相对提高农民的技能，减少整个农场的劳动力。这种效果是证实了农民打工劳动的供应方程。出席这样的教育研讨会显著降低在农场的劳动力供给。特别是当一个农民出席研讨会后，每年花在农场上的工作时间会比预计的少八十小时，这就说明提高了劳动效率。这就可能暗示,课程的出席与打工工作的时间变量有关。这就可以反映农民出席研讨会的强度
47、与参与农业问题兴趣可能是和花在农场更少的时间一个相关性的特征。农户家庭孩子的增加也会影响农民和他们的配偶参与研讨会。农场配偶在农户孩子不满15岁时明显不愿意参加工作。相比之下,有孩子的家庭导致更多的劳动者需要被提供给就业机会。因此,遇见了一个类似的结果范汤普森和由桑德1983，妇女家政优势和儿童保健都比较表明,孩子的存在很可能意味着更少的工作吗。本研究结果发现农民在有孩子时，为了抚养孩子，就更加会利用更多时间去农场参加工作。里德和哈福德医生发现有孩子的工人往往工作更长时间。结论在这篇文章中我们以堪萨斯州为案例评估了决定农民及其配偶的农场收入的作用变异性以及影响劳动力供应的许多其他因素。使用分析
48、估计的方法来分析决定劳动力供应的原因。结果表明,供给打工农民劳动的是正面的影响与农业收入的风险性显著相关。虽然有风险的农场收入常被先进作为一种重要的因素确定劳动力供给,最早的研究例如,巴特莱特直接确认了这种影响。在二十世纪八十年代，农民在农场参加工作对收入有更大的的显著变化。有更多的农业经验的农民和配偶不愿意在农场工作。农民的劳动供给和他们的配偶与打工经验呈正相关。虽然劳动供给,农民参与在教育活动，学术教育与参加农场工作是不显著相关的，但大型农场经营者不大可能与农场工作不相关。农民劳动供给和他们的配偶被发现为显著相关。有小孩子的农民配偶明显不愿意去农场从事工作。最后,农民和配偶更愿意去那些有更多的政府支持的地方打工就业。这些结果可能对农业政策有重要的影响。1996年的农业法案中消除种植面积与限制更换直接价格付款将在未来被淘汰，这样的变化可能提高价格和收入波动。这样的结果意味着导致农民和他们的配偶打工时间的变化。农业政策的研究和推广对打工就业问题的努力相对较少考虑。我们的结果表明,更多的农场的家庭寻求打工就业这些问题可能着重需要农业政策调整。这可能显示打工就业问题在推广教育和研究项目工作中扮演重要的角色。
