1、中国支出法GDP核算,China Expenditure-Based GDP Accounting Wu YouApril 25th, 2011, Shenzhen,建立与发展 Establishment and Development,1989年开展支出法GDP试行工作In 1989, Expenditure-based GDP estimates were developed on atrial basis1995年国家统计局在中国统计年鉴中对外首次公布了19781994年国家支出法GDP数据和1993年30个地区支出法GDP数据。In 1995, National Bureau of S
2、tatistics first published nationalexpenditure-based GDP figures of 1978-1994 and 30 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions figures of 1993 inChina Statistical Yearbook.,2000年以来，根据联合国1993年SNA有关规定，对支出法GDP核算方法进行了多次改进和修订,是中国核算体系重要组成部分 Since 2000 , National Bureau of Statistics has improved and
3、revised the expenditure-based GDP accounting system for many times according to SNA1993. Expenditure-based GDP estimation is an important part of China Accounting System.,目前，国家和地区已正式建立了年度支出法GDP核算制度.但季度核算还在研究试算中，未对外发布数据。 At present, the state and regions have formally established the annual expenditu
4、re-based GDP accounting system ,but quarterly estimates are still on a trial basis, which havent been published yet.,基本框架,Basic Frame,居民消费支出(FCEH) Final Consumption Expenditure of Households 居民消费支出=农村居民+城镇居民= Rural Households Expenditure + Urban Households Expenditure,类别(Categories)1.食品类 Food2.衣着类 C
5、lothing3.居住类 Residence4.家庭设备、用品及服务类 Household Appliances and Services 5.医疗保健类 Health Care and Medical Services,类别 Categories,6.交通和通信类 Transport and communications7.文教娱乐用品及服务类 Education, Culture, Recreation and Services8.实物消费及其他 Consumption in kind and others9.银行中介服务消费支出 Financial Service 10.保险服务消费支出
6、 Insurance Service11.自有住房服务 Owner-occupied Housing Service,居民消费支出(FCEH),现价核算：The current price estimates1-8类消费支出=人均消费支出居民年平均人数Categories 1-8 Expenditure=per capita consumption annualaverage number of residents居民年平均人数（年初居民人数年末居民人数）2Annual average number of residents=(the number of the yearbeginning +
7、 the number of the year-end)/2资料来源:农村与城镇住户年度调查资料,人口统计资料Resources: Households annual survey, Population Statistics,居民消费支出(FCEH),银行服务消费支出=城乡居民消费间接计算的银行中介服务+直接付费的银行服务 Financial Service=Financial Intermediation Services Indirect Measured of Households (FISIMH) + Financial Service of Households Directly
8、Paid (FSHDP)居民消费的间接计算的银行中介服务支出 = 间接计算的银行中介服务产出分摊给居民的部分 FSIMH = the proportion of FISIM to the households,居民消费支出(FCEH),居民消费的间接计算的银行中介服务支出 = 间接计算的银行中介服务产出(城镇居民储蓄存款年平均余额住房公积金存款年平均余额 + 城镇居民消费贷款年平均余额) （金融机构存款年平均余额+金融机构贷款年平均余额） FISIMH=FISIM (average annual saving account balance of urban households+ avera
9、ge annual saving account balance of housing provident fund+ average consumer loans account of urban households)/(average annual saving account balance of financial institutions+ average loans account balance of financial institutions),居民直接付费的银行服务支出根据金融机构手续费、佣金和其他业务收入资料计算FSHDP estimates by the charge
10、, brokerage and otheroperating income资料来源：生产法核算资料、金融机构资料Resources: Data from Production-based GDP and financial institutions,居民消费支出(FCEH),居民保险服务消费支出 各种居民寿险、财产险赔款及给付 保险业总产出 - 全部保险赔款及给付合计Insurance Service Expenditure of Household =Total output of the Insurance Industry (Life Insurance and Property Ins
11、urance reparations and payments)/ Total reparations and payments 资料来源: 生产法核算、保险机构、城乡住户调查资料Resources: Data from Production-based GDP, Insurance Institutions and Households Survey,居民消费支出(FCEH),自有住房服务支出（按住房成本计算） 城乡居民自有住房修理维护费用 城镇居民自有住房管理费 城乡居民自有住房虚拟折旧Owner-occupied Housing Service (estimates on cost)=
12、Repairand Maintenance Costs + Management Fee + ImputedDepreciation 其中：虚拟折旧=房屋成本价折旧率Imputed Depreciation= Housing Cost Depreciation Rate资料来源:农村与城镇住户调查资料、房地产投资统计年报Resources: Households Survey, Annual Report of Real Estate Investment,居民消费支出(FCEH),不变价核算：Constant Price Estimation 1.1-8类采用CPI缩减 Categories
13、 1-8 are deflated by CPI 2.金融服务、保险服务、自有住房服务采用核算缩减指数 Financial Services, Insurance Services and Owner-occupied Housing Services are deflated by the deflators of production approach,政府消费支出(CEG) Consumption Expenditure of Government,现价核算(current price estimation)：政府消费支出工资福利支出 商品和服务支出 对个人和家庭的转移性支出 市场性收入
14、 固定资产折旧Current Operating Expenditures= Salary and Welfare +Expenditure on goods and services Transfer Payments tohouseholds and individuals Operating Revenue + Depreciationof Fixed Assets资料来源：财政部行政事业单位决算资料、国防白皮书 Resources: Ministry of Finances budget data for government institutions,Defense White Pa
15、per,政府消费支出(CEG),不变价核算(Constant price estimation)：1.经常性业务支出：利用 CPI缩减。Expenditure of Regular Business: deflated by CPI2.固定资产折旧：利用固定资产投资价格指数缩减。Depreciation of Fixed Assets: deflated by PriceIndices for Fixed Assets Investment,固定资本形成总额(GFCF) Gross Fixed Capital Formation,现价核算(current price estimates)：固定
16、资本形成总额 = 住宅 + 非住宅建筑物 + 机器和设备 + 土地改良支出 + 矿藏勘探费 + 计算机软件 +其他GFCF= Residential Construction + Non-Residential Construction +Machinery and Equipment + Land Reclamation Expenditures +Mineral Exploration Costs + Software + Others资料来源：固定资产投资统计年报、国土资源部、工信部有关统计资料 Resources: Annual report of Fixed Assets Inves
17、tment, Ministry of Land andNatural Resources, Ministry of Industry and Information,固定资本形成总额(GFCF),不变价核算(constant price estimates)：1.住宅、非住宅建筑物、机器和设备、土地改良支出、矿藏勘探费、其他项分别按固定资产投资价格指数中对应的价格指数和房屋销售价格指数缩减Residential Construction ,Non-Residential Construction,Machinery and Equipment, Land Reclamation , Miner
18、alExploration Costs and Others are deflated by fixed assetsinvestment price index and housing sales price index2.计算机软件：按商品零售价格指数中“服务项目价格指数”缩减Computer Software is deflated by computer software price indexof retail price index.,存货变化(CI)Change in Inventories,由于缺乏资料来源，存货增加没有按原材料、燃料、储备物资、产成品和半成品等分类计算，而是按
19、以下行业计算。Change in Inventories is estimated by industries otherthan categories such as raw materials, fuel, reserve materials, products and semi-finished products,because of limitation of basic data,现价核算(current price estimation)： 农林牧渔业 Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery 工业Industry 建筑
20、业Construction 交通运输、仓储及邮政业Transport, Warehousing and Postal 批发和零售业Wholesale and Retail 住宿和餐饮业Hotels and Catering Services 房地产业Real Estate 其他服务业Other Services,存货变化 （CI）Change in Inventories,不变价核算(constant price estimation)： 农林牧渔业企业：农产品生产价格指数； Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery: Agricu
21、ltural Products Price Index 工业、建筑业、交通运输业、仓储业邮政业：工业 品出厂价格指数； Industry, Construction, Transport, Warehousing and Postal: PPI 批发和零售业、住宿和餐饮业：商品零售价格指数. Wholesale and Retail, hotels and catering services: Retail Price Index,存货变化(CI)Change in Inventories,房地产业：建材类价格指数；Real Estate: Price Index of Constructio
22、n Materials 其他服务业：商品零售价格指数。 Other Services: Retail Price Index资料来源：农业、工业、建筑业、批发零售业、房地产业、国有企业等年度财务资料、经济普查数据及各种价格统计资料。Resources: Annual Financial Report of Agriculture, Industry, Construction,Wholesale and Retail Sales, Real Estate, State-owned enterprises; Data fromEconomy Census and various pricing
23、statistics.,货物和服务净出口 Net Export of Goods and Services,现价核算(current price estimation): 货物和服务净出口=货物和服务出口货物和服务进口 Net export of goods and services = Export of goods and services- Import of goods and services 货物出口和进口价值都按离岸价格计算，服务出口和进口价值按交易发生时的市场价格计算。 The value of goods export and import is computed by fr
24、ee-on-board price, the value of services import and export by market price when transaction actually occurs.,货物和服务净出口 Net Export of Goods and Services,另外,还需将按美元计算的数据用当年平均汇率折算成按人民币计算的数据。In addition, the data calculated by USD should beconverted to the data by CNY with the current averageexchange rate
25、.资料来源：货物和服务出口总额和进口总额取自海关货物进出口资料和国际收支平衡表。Resources: Customs and BOP,货物和服务净出口 Net Export of Goods and Services,不变价核算(constant price estimation) 进出口货物价格指数主要采用海关总署编制的进出口商品价格指数。 Most import and export of goods price indices are the commodity price indices authorized by General Administration of Customs.,
26、货物和服务净出口 Net Export of Goods and Services,目前,我国还没有编制进出口服务价格指数，不变价服务出口价格指数参照我国CPI中的服务项目价格指数；进口服务价格指数参考主要贸易国的CPI。At present, China has not authorized services import and export price index.Services export at constant price is calculated by referring to service itemsprice index of CPI and the services
27、import price index at constant price isestimated by referring to the CPIs of main trading countries and regions.采用基年美元兑人民币的年平均汇率Export and import (CNY)= Export and import (USD) * annual averageexchange rate of the base year,支出法GDP数据发布程序和修订Releasing and revision procedure of GDE,1.初步核算数据：于次年5月在中国统计摘要
28、上发布。 Preliminary accounting data will be released in China Statistical Abstract in May of the next year.2.初步核实数据：于次年9月在中国统计提要和中国统计年鉴上发布。 Preliminary verifying data will be released in China Statistical Summary in September of the next year.,支出法GDP数据发布程序和修订Releasing and revision procedure of GDE,3.最终
29、核实数据：于隔年5月和9月在中国统计摘要、中国统计提要和中国统计年鉴上发布。 Final verifying data will be released in China Statistical Abstract, China Statistical Summary and China Statistical Year Book in May and September of the next year.,支出法GDP数据发布程序和修订Releasing and revision procedure of GDE,在经济普查年份，由于发现对支出法GDP数据有较大影响的数据资料，或者由于计算方法
30、、分类标准发生变化时，还要对历史数据进行修订和发布。在做上述数据调整时，既要修订GDP总量，也要修订增长速度。 GDE and other historical data would be revised and published when important data greatly influencing GDE appear in Economy Census year, or computing methods and categories standards have changed. Both the quantity and growth rate are needed to
31、be revised when adjustment is made.,存在的问题和困难Problems and Difficulties,一、与生产法GDP数据存在差距、不衔接The discrepancy still exists between GDP and GDE二、指标分类较粗，不能满足分析需要The categories are too broad to meet the analyzing need三、一些指标不变价核算方法需要改进Some methods of constant price estimating need to be improved四、基础资料缺乏Baseline materials and data are limited,谢谢！,THANK YOU !,
