1、外文翻译 原文 Fur Industry Or Will Emerge From The Downward Trend Material Source: A model for assessing the impact of behavioral stress on domestic animals. J. Anim. Sci. 65: 1128-1235. Author: Moberg, G. P From the initial U.S. subprime mortgage crisis to the gold Financial crisis, and then rose to the
2、global economic crisis Machine, the world suffered a huge leather trade Impact. Chinas development momentum of the leather industry is the first decline in more than a decade. Of course, not only in China, the global leather industry are Generally experienced a history of disaster-stricken. Times of
3、 crisis, although not all countries the situation of a little the same, but the overall trend is difficult to avoid trade reduced and the production status of tight. Chinas fur industry started relatively late, starting lower, to date, has not yet reached a satisfactory level of development. But aft
4、er years of rapid growth, China have the fur has been a considerable scale in the international market play an increasingly important role as the worlds largest fur and fur products producers. After years of development, Chinas fur processing has Wenju in the world, China has become the worlds fur p
5、rocessing base. According to the European fur estimate that 80% of the worlds fur manufacture in China. China has become the most important foreign fur auction buyers, in 2007, I fur processing trade exports reached 454 million U.S. dollars, accounting for 49% of fur exports, surpassing even the gen
6、eral trade exports. This shows that Chinas Qiu Piga than the fur farming industry developed more than half of Chinas exports of raw fur skin from abroad. Import and export trade January to October 2008, Chinas total imports and exports of fur 1.182 billion U.S. dollars, up by 5.1%. One fur imports 4
7、11 million U.S. dollars, up 22.6%; fur exports 771 million U.S. dollars, down 2.3%. January to October 2008 imports of raw materials fur 9.9 billion U.S. dollars, up 23.5%; exports of 269 million, compared with the same period in 2007 increased 12%. In recent years, china have fur imports of raw mat
8、erials continued to grow. 2001 Fur raw materials imported 172 million U.S. dollars in 2007 increased to 374 million U.S. dollars, 2.17 times in 2001. After three decades of Chinas fur exports more than 10 years of sustained and rapid growth to 2005, exports of 2.585 billion yuan of Chinas fur to rea
9、ch a record high. The international market International fur market in raw materials mainly by the auction completed, the formation of Denmark, Finland, North America and Hong Kong, the four major auction houses. Auction in Hong Kong would cease to function has been a long time, the current auction
10、will control the remaining three owners would like the international fur trade flows. Owners of the worlds fur farming should be concentrated in northern Europe in recent years, Where Scandinavia is the worlds largest fur producing animals .the Danish export raw fur 6-700000000 euros or so, the Finn
11、ish Export raw fur around 200 million euros. Denmark has long been the worlds largest mink farming country, although in recent years Chinas mink production has more than Denmark, but the water is still made of mink fur quality can not match, the Danish auction in mink industry is still in a very str
12、ong dominance . Since last year, the international fur market is expected to lack of demand, the price decline phenomenon. Should objectively look at this: First, the international market demand for fur in general have risen slightly, but the increase will not be like 2005 years ago as rapidly as Ch
13、inas fur export development. Considered carefully, not difficult to find the increment in international trade lies in the main import and export of Chinas booming fur. Second, the international fur market demand is relatively stable, there is relative stability in the cyclical development of the cha
14、racteristics of growth before 2005 is likely to grow only a limited range in 2005, after a certain degree of cyclical decline. Problems in Fur Trade Raw fur import tariffs are too high. At present I was born under the various headings 43.01 fur imports of goods, tax rates up to 90% to 100%, even if
15、the MFN import tariff is 15% to 20%. In March 2008, the State adjusted value-added tax on imports of raw fur, according to 13% tax rate shall be. Even so, according to the MFN rate basis, I was born and fur imports 35% of the total tax burden is still around. High import duties on raw fur produced a
16、 number of negative effects: First, the United States, Japan, the EU did not import duty fur, South Korea has only 4%, I was born and fur import tariffs and other key raw fur production, processing of national and regional disparities are too obvious; Second, I was born and fur with the gap between
17、the developed countries mainly in the variety, quality, excessive protection of domestic raw fur species is not conducive to the optimization and improvement of the quality; three is normal for prices of imported goods and the smuggling of commodity prices, the gap is too large, smuggling profit In
18、additon, objectively lead to smuggling and the spread, so fur as the smuggling of key commodities, raw fur imports is much larger than I actually customs statistics; Fourth fur tanning process is a labor-intensive, high value-added industries, the use of raw material for tanning as alum, unlike leat
19、her, impact on the environment is much smaller than the leather, high tariff is not conducive to promoting the Fur processing and fur garment industrys development. Rationalize and depth on the development of the Russian market. As the Russian economy improves, the worlds fur industry are optimistic
20、 about the Russian market, but its potential is still far not been realized. Russias trade environment, poor circulation order instability; Chinese fur products in the Russian market, the overall image to be improved, basically middle and low product; gray barriers and charter tax package still. Whi
21、le both China and Russia have pledged to gradually abolish the “charter package tax“, but since 2006, china have fur exports to Russia, “charter package tax“ is not the norm on the rise. “A charter package tax“ a serious impact on the normal trade channels, resulting in a more serious unfair competi
22、tion has also increased business risk. Worth noting that the Russian market, the recent positive changes are taking place. It is learned that, in order to stop the fur products “gray“ and “black“ import, to avoid the tax loss in 2008 the Russian Government has taken to reduce import tariffs on fur p
23、roducts policy measures. Where imports of fur through formal channels, products and tariffs from 20% to 10%. This will result in fur products in the Russian market selling prices decreased substantially, while smuggling of Russian fur garments will also be gradually reduced. This policy has been fur
24、 the support of manufacturers and importers. Since 2008, the financial crisis, Europe and the United States, Japan and other major signs of the countrys economic growth has seen a decline, or even negative growth in some countries, a noticeable change in the international market demand. The U.S. fin
25、ancial crisis on the global economic impact of the outbreak has not yet fully apparent, but consumer confidence has been severely decline in consumer demand has become an indisputable reality. The financial crisis on the real economy impact will be very serious, and the financial crisis, intertwined
26、 with the entity under the influence of the economic recession, consumer confidence and market prospects will be greatly affected. The international leather trade situation itself, because the information asymmetry, and the geography, culture, policy, economic system there are many different uncerta
27、inties. You need depends on the future situation and accurate analysis of influential factors, only to grasp the future trend of the international leather trade, and actively make adjustments and efforts to gain the initiative in international trade. 译文 Fur Industry Or Will Emerge From The Downward
28、Trend 资料来源 : A model for assessing the impact of behavioral stress on domestic animals. J. Anim. Sci. 65: 1128 -1235. 作者： Moberg, G. P 从最初美国次贷危机爆发到金融危机，再上升到全球的经济危机，世界皮革贸易遭受了巨大的冲击 。 中国皮革业的发展势头出现了十几年来的首次下滑 。 当然，不仅中国，全球的皮革业都普遍经历了历史上灾难深重的危机时刻，尽管各国境遇略有不同，但总的趋势都难以避免 贸易量减少 、 生产紧缩的状态。 中国裘皮市场 中国的裘皮业起步较晚，起点较低
29、，迄今为止，还没有达到令人满意的水平的发展。 但经过多年的快速发展，中国有皮毛已在国际市场上发挥了相当的规模，成为世界上最大的毛皮及毛皮制品生产商日益重要的作用。 经过多年的发展，中国的皮毛加工已举在世界上，中国已经成为世界的毛皮加工基地。 据欧洲裘皮业对中国的裘皮市场的估计，世界上有 80%的裘 皮是在中国生产的 。 中国已成为最重要的外交毛皮拍卖的买家，在 2007 年，我的皮毛加工贸易 出口额达到 4.54 亿 美元，毛皮出口的 49左右，甚至超过了一般贸易出口 。 这表明，中国的 裘皮革 比毛皮养殖业较发达皮毛原料中国出口的一半以上来自国外。 进出口贸易 一至十月 2008 年，中国的
30、进口总额和毛皮 1.182 亿 美元，同比增长 5.1出口。 皮毛一体进口 4.11 亿 美元，同比增长 22.6 ;裘 皮出口 7.71 亿 美元，同比下降 2.3。 2008 年一月至十月裘皮原料进口 9.9 亿美元，增长 23.5，出口的 2.69 亿美元，比 2007 年同期增长 12。 近年来， 中国 对毛皮原料进口持续增长。 2001 年毛皮在 2007 年进口 1.72 亿 美元原料上升到 3.74 亿美元，2.17 倍于 2001 年。 经过三年的中国毛皮出口超过 10 年的持续快速增长数十年至 2005 年 25.85 亿的中国毛皮出口达到人民币创历史新高。 国际 裘皮市场
31、国际 原料市场主要由毛皮拍卖完成，丹麦，芬兰，北美和香港，四大拍卖行的形成。 在香港拍卖会停止运作已久，目前的拍卖将控制其余三个业主希望国际毛皮贸易流动 。 世界毛皮养殖业主要集中在北欧，凡斯堪的纳维亚半岛是世界上最大的皮毛生产的动物，近年来，丹麦出口生毛皮 6-7 亿 欧元左右，芬兰毛皮原料出口约 2亿欧元。 丹麦长期以来一直是世界上最大的水貂养殖的国家，虽然近年来中国的水貂产量已超过丹麦多，但水仍然是水貂皮质量方面取得无法比拟的，在水貂产业丹麦拍卖仍然是在一个非常强大的优势。 2009 年 以来，国际裘皮市场预期 需求，价格下降的现象缺乏。 应该客观地看待这样的：首先，国际市场需求毛皮一般
32、都略有上升，但升幅不会像 2005 年年前，作为中国的毛皮出口发展迅速。 仔细想一想，不难发现在国际贸易中的主要在于增加进口和中国蓬勃发展的毛皮出口。 二，国际裘皮市场需求相对稳定，但正在增长的周期性发展的相对稳定的特点在 2005年之前是 2005年的增长率可能只有有限的范围内经过了一定程度的周期性衰退。 皮草贸易中存在的问题 生毛皮进口关税过高。 目前 中国 43.01%毛皮进口货物，税率高达 90至100，即使最惠国进口关税为 15至 20 。 2008 年 3 月， 中国 调整增值毛皮原料进口税，按 13计征。 即便如此 ， 根据最惠国税率基础上， 生 毛皮进 出 口总额的 35的税收
33、负担仍然存在。 对生毛皮进口关税产生了负面影响：第一，美国，日本，欧盟没有进口税的皮毛，韩国只有 4， 中国 生毛皮进出口关税和其他重要原材料毛皮生产 与其他 国家和地区 的 差距过于明显，二是 中国进出口生毛皮 与发达国家之间的主要在品种，质量，原材料国产毛皮物种的过度保护，不利于优化和质量改进的差距毛皮 ;三是对进口商品的价格和商品价格的走私正常的，差距过大，另外走私利润 的吸引 ，客观上导致走私和传播，所以作为重点商品，走私皮草生毛皮进口远远大于其实我海关统计 ;第四毛皮鞣制过程是一个劳动密集，高增值产业，原材料使用的明矾鞣革，皮革不同，对环境的影响比皮革小，不利于高关税促进皮毛加工，毛
34、皮服装行业的发展。 深度开发俄罗斯市场。 随着俄罗斯经济好转，世界裘皮业是对俄罗斯市场持乐观态度，但其潜力还远远没有实现。 俄罗斯的贸易环境，不稳定因素 的减少 ，在俄罗斯市场的中国裘皮制品，整体形象得到改善，基本上是中低档产品，灰色壁垒和包机包税之中。虽然这两个中国和俄罗斯已承诺逐步取消 “ 包机包税 ” ，但自 2006 年以来， 中国 出口到俄罗斯的 裘 皮， “ 包机包税 ” 不是在 下降，而是在 上升 。 “ 宪章包税 ” 对正常贸易渠道的严重冲击，更严重的不公平竞争也增加了经营风险。 令人 值得注意的是，俄罗斯市场，近期正在发生积极变化。 据悉，为了制止皮毛制品 “ 灰色 ” 和
35、“ 黑色 ” 进口，以避免税收流失 。 在 2008 年，俄罗斯政府采取了降低裘皮制品进口关税的政策措施。 凡通过正规渠道，产品和进口关税从20的毛皮至 10。 这将导致在俄罗斯市场销售价 格大幅度下降裘皮制品，裘皮服装在俄罗斯走私也将逐步减少。 这一政策已经毛皮的制造商和进口商的支持。 2008 年以来，金融危机，欧洲和美国，日本和国家的经济发展的其他重大的迹象已经出现了下降，甚至在一些国家出现负增长，在国际市场的需求明显的变化。 美国对全球爆发金融危机对经济的影响尚未完全显现，但消费者信心受到严重的消费需求下降已经成为不争的现实。 对实体经济的金融危机的影响将非常严重，金融危机下的经济衰退，消费者信心和市场前景影响的实体交织将受到很大的影响。 国际裘皮贸易形势本身因为信息不对称，及地理、文化、政策、经济体制 的迥异存在许多不确定性。 这需要依赖于对未来形势和贸易影响因素的准确分析，只有把握了未来国际皮革贸易的走向，积极做出调整和努力才能争得国际贸易的主动权 。
