1、 外文翻译 Issues for Domestic Policy and WTO Negotiations Material Source: Institute for International Economics Author: Catherine L. Mann Electronic commerce and its related activities over the internet can be the engines that improve domestic economic well-being through liberalization of domestic serv
2、ices, more rapid integration into globalization of production, and leap-frogging of available technology.Electronic commerce integrates the domestic and global markets from its very inception.Negotiating on trade issues related to electronic commerce will demand self-inspection of key domestic polic
3、ies, particularly in telecommunications, financial services, and distribution and delivery. E-commerce is not a service, nor a good, but something that is comprised of both. In the context of WTO commitments, embracing this idea could lead to a liberalizing bias in favor of electronic delivery of go
4、ods and services as compared to delivery by a scheduled mode. Rather than view this outcome with alarm, developing countries should encourage it as a positive force that furthers the development both of electronic commerce, as well as engenders deeper liberalization and deregulation throughout the e
5、conomy. Electronic commerce and its related activities over the internet can be the engines that improve domestic economic well-being through liberalization of domestic services, more rapid integration into globalization of production, and leap-frogging of available technology. Since electronic comm
6、erce integrates the domestic and global markets from its very inception, negotiating on trade issues related to electronic commerce will, even more than trade negotiations have in the past, demand self-inspection of key domestic policies,particularly in telecommunications,financial services, and dis
7、tribution and delivery. Because these sectors are fundamental to the workings of a modern economy, liberalization here will rebound to greater economic well-being than comparable liberalization in more narrowly focussed sectors. Thus, the desire to be part of the e-commerce wave can be a powerful fo
8、rce to erode domestic vested interests that have slowed the liberalization of these sectors. “Electronic commerce” is a shorthand term that embraces a complex amalgam of technologies,infrastructures, processes, and products. It brings together whole industries and narrow applications, producers and
9、users, information exchange and economic activity into a global marketplace called “the Internet.” There is no universal definition of electronic commerce because the Internet marketplace and its participants are so numerous and their intricate relationships are evolving so rapidly.1 Nonetheless, on
10、e of the best ways of understanding electronic commerce is to consider the elements of its infrastructure, its impact on the traditional marketplace, and the continuum of ways in which electronic commerce is manifested. This approach shows clearly how electronic commerce is intricately woven into th
11、e fabric of domestic economic activity and international trade. Electronic commerce as it has evolved today requires three types of infrastructure: Technological infrastructure to create an Internet marketplace. Electronic commerce relies on a variety of technologies, the development of which are pr
12、oceeding at breakneck speeds(e.g., interconnectivity among telecommunications, cable, satellite, or other Internetbackbone; Internet service providers (ISPs) to connect market participants to that backbone;and end-user devices such as PCs, TVs, or mobile telephones). Process infrastructure to connec
13、t the Internet marketplace to the traditional marketplace.This infrastructure makes payment over the Internet possible (through credit, debit, or Smart cards, or through online currencies). It also makes possible the distribution and delivery(whether online or physical) of those products purchased o
14、ver the Internet to the consumer. “Infrastructure” of protocols, laws, and regulations. This infrastructure affects the conduct of those businesses engaging in and impacted by electronic commerce, as well as the relationships between businesses, consumers, and government. Examples include technical
15、communications and interconnectivity standards; the legality and modality of digital signatures, certification, and encryption; and disclosure, privacy, and content regulations.Together, these infrastructures enable electronic commerce to innovate the traditional marketplace in three ways: Process i
16、nnovations: Electronic commerce simplifies, makes more efficient, reduces costs, or otherwise alters the process by which an existing transaction takes place. For example, CiscoSystems replaced its phone and fax ordering process with an online ordering process and saved more than one-half billion do
17、llars and reduced error rates from 25 percent to 2 percent.2Boeing used computer-aided design and electronic communication to coordinate 238 design teams in the globalized production of the 777 aircraft, a process never before attempted in this way, and which cut error rates by 50 percent, and reduc
18、ed both costs and time to market. Product innovations: Electronic commerce creates or facilitates new industries and products not previously available. For example, MP3 both enables consumers to play music downloaded from a computer and enables musicians to upload music directly to the internet, the
19、reby creating a new medium to produce and consume music; WebMD repackages existing health information in an easy-to-use online format, offers opportunities to “chat” with people with similar health concerns, and provides “real-time” responses to health questions. Market innovations: Electronic comme
20、rce also creates new markets in time, space, and in information that heretofore did not exist because transaction and coordination costs were prohibitively high. For example, the online bank Wingspan offers 24-hour bill payment features; PeopleLink is a global advertising location for artisans in re
21、mote parts of Latin,America and Africa; reverse auctions through Priceline inform businesses of the exact price a consumer is willing to pay for the products, as well as reduce the consumers purchase cost. In reviewing the infrastructures that make electronic commerce possible, as well as the impact
22、 electronic commerce has on the traditional marketplace, we can see how electronic commerce is intricately woven into the fabric of domestic economic activity an international trade. The infrastructures on which e-commerce depends also are key to domestic activity. The three service-sector infrastru
23、ctures of telecoms, financial services, and distribution and delivery are critical components for overall economic activity. Comprehensive liberalization of services could raise global GDP by 4 to 6 percentage pointstwice that credited to the Uruguay Roundas well as raise the long-run global growth
24、rate from 3.2 to 5.0 percent.While the transition to liberalization is almost never without cost, liberalizing services promises more comprehensive benefits since services are an input to production in virtually all sectors of the economy. In contrast, liberalization of selected goods sectors has a
25、narrower conduit through which it affects the overall economy. Electronic commerce is global from the very start. While traditional borders still matter in the world of international trade, electronic commerce diminishes their importance. No longer do customers need to be physically present to see o
26、r hear what they are buying. As a result, companies on the Internet instantly become international: Amazon was selling books to customers in over 40 countries in its first month of existence; the company now sells a variety of products to customers in over 160 countries. The electronic marketplace i
27、s currently free from explicit trade barriers. The absence of international tariffs or other barriers on electronic commerce encourages more people to try and to continue using the internet marketplace, creating a greater level of efficiency and economic benefit for its participants. Electronic comm
28、erce is integral to existing WTO commitments. While there are currently no explicit trade barriers on electronic commerce, the infrastructures that make electronic commerce possible are still burdened by a myriad of trade and investment barriers. The growth of electronic commerce depends on continue
29、d liberalization of these infrastructures, many of which are already part of WTO commitments. Most important are computers and other information technology products (covered by ITA I and under consideration for ITA II), telecommunications (covered by the Basic Telecommunications Agreement), financia
30、l services (addressed in the Financial Services Agreement), distribution (relevant under TRIMS), and delivery services (under consideration for GATS 2000), among others. Exploiting the synergies among these service sectors allows electronic commerce to flourish and maximizes economic benefits. Estim
31、ates of the growth of internet usage and electronic commerce both within domestic markets and worldwide are notorious for their hyperbole. Even so, each year the actual growth has surpassed the estimate rather than falling short of it. Respected sources such as Forrester Research expect worldwide el
32、ectronic commerce revenues to surpass $300 billion by 2002 and accelerate to $1.3 trillion in 2003. Currently an overwhelming (close to 85%) share of electronic commerce is concentrated in the United States, but diffusion into Europe and Asia, followed by Latin America and Africa will be rapid. In d
33、eveloping countries internet use and its economic potential are growing exponentially. The share of active internet users in Asia/Pacific Rim, Latin America, and “rest of world” could increase from 23 percent in 1999 to 35 percent in 2002.5 In India, for example, the number of internet users nearly
34、doubled in the last year to 270,000, and could rise to over 2 million by the end of 2000.6 E-commerce revenues could jump from $2.8 million in 1998 to $575 million in 2002. In China, a reported 60 percent of businesses are using the internet, and ecommerce revenues could rise from $11.7 million in 1
35、998 to $1.9 billion in 2002.7 In Latin America, internet usage rose nearly eight-fold between 1995 and 1997 with revenues estimated to be $167 million in 1998 and projected to be $8 billion by 2003.8 Africa is fully wired now that Somalia recently added its first ISP; in South Africa, electronic com
36、merce is expected to generate US $1.1 billion in 1999. Two important facts about e-commerce are often overlooked. First, the vast bulk of the actual and to an even greater extent the expected growth in revenues from e-commerce comes from business-to-business transactions. In 1998, the ratio of B-to-
37、B over B-to-C was 5.5 to 1; but by 2003 the ratio is expected to be 12 to 1. Second, in virtually all countries other than the United States, electronic commerce is export oriented. In the US, the share of export sales in total ecommerce revenues is only 10 percent, but in Canada it is 83 percent, i
38、n Latin America it averages 79 percent, and in Asia/Pacific it is 38 percent. Developing countries need to address a number of socioeconomic and regulatory barriers before their electronic commerce and internet use matches that of the United States or Europe. While the socioeconomic challenges are d
39、ifficult to surmount and will be slower to achieve, the path to reducing regulatory barriers is clearer and the benefits quicker to observe. High Internet access rates, low penetration of electronic means of payment (such as credit, debit, or Smart cards), and cumbersome delivery systems are primary
40、 obstacles to the growth of electronic commerce in developing countries. One area that is most easily quantified and compared is internet monthly access fees. ITU data show that these fees vary substantially across countries and that the share of the fees accounted for by ISP charges versus accounte
41、d for by local telephone charges also varies substantially. For example, in the US, the approximately $20 per month internet access charge is all an ISP charge. In Korea, the $25 charge is about 1/3 ISP charge and 2/3 local call charges. In Brazil, the $37 charge is nearly all a local ISP charge. In
42、 China, the $65 charge is about half ISP charge and about half a local phone charge. More importantly, when adjusted by the level of per capita GDP, the differences in charges is tremendous. For example, in the US and Australia fees are about $25 per month, accounting for less than 2 percent of mont
43、hly GDP per capita. In contrast, in Mexico, the fee at about $27 per month accounts for about 5 percent of monthly income and in Mozambique, that $27 per month accounts for about 70 percent of monthly GDP per capita. Because the internet creates a new electronic businesses environment, “surfing” is
44、a key way for users to see what businesses are now doing, and what market niches remain to be exploited. Consequently, large “entry” and on-going costs are a great disincentive to internet usage and therefore to the development of e-commerce business both within a country and for international trade
45、. Competition, both for telephone access as well as among ISPs is a key area where government policy can make a difference in access and uptake of the internet. Second, a supportive electronic payments infrastructure is crucial to promote electronic commerce, which exposes a key link between electro
46、nic commerce and the financial foundation of the economy. The efficiency of the payments system itself can help or hinder the development of electronic commerce. Issues of security for transactions, types of electronic media or techniques for making transactions, as well authorization and clearing f
47、unctions are key aspects of the problem. Electronic payments require an easy-to-use and secure payment vehicle. Although a number of countries are focussing on “cash on delivery” for tangible products, the future will require a payment method that is on-line so as to accommodate products (both goods
48、 and services) delivered digitally. For business-to-business transactions, an easy-to-use electronic payments mechanism is crucial to achieve the cost reductions promised by internet-based commerce. In addition, security for financial transactions is the sine qua non; electronic payment must be secu
49、re and legal, with liability clearly identified, limited, and prosecuted. Eighty percent of e-commerce transactions use credit cards, even as debit, smart cards or digital cash are being viewed as alternatives. Credit-card penetration by countries varies widely and for various reasons. In some countries, including China, the preference for cash to avoid audit trails undermines the use of credit cards as the basis for electronic commerce transactions, even as other forms of internet usage (such as e-mail) has risen. In other countries, su
