1、 外文翻译 A perfect market Material Source: Economist print edition,2004(3) Author: James Wilson E-commerce is coming of age, says Paul Markillie, but not in the way predicted in the bubble years When the technology bubble burst in 2000, the crazy valuations for online companies vanished with it, and ma
2、ny businesses folded. The survivors plugged on as best they could, encouraged by the growing number of internet users. Now valuations are rising again and some of the dotcoms are making real profits, but the business world has become much more cautious about the internets potential. The funny thing
3、is that the wild predictions made at the height of the boomnamely, that vast chunks of the world economy would move into cyberspaceare, in one way or another, coming true. The raw numbers tell only part of the story. According to Americas Department of Commerce, online retail sales in the worlds big
4、gest market last year rose by 26%, to $55 billion. That sounds a lot of money, but it amounts to only 1.6% of total retail sales. The vast majority of people still buy most things in the good old “bricks-and-mortar” world. But the commerce departments figures deal with only part of the retail indust
5、ry. For instance, they exclude online travel services, one of the most successful and fastest-growing sectors of e-commerce. InterActiveCorp (IAC), the owner of and , alone sold $10 billion-worth of travel last yearand it has plenty of competition, not least from airlines, hotels and car-rental com
6、panies, all of which increasingly sell online. Nor do the figures take in things like financial services, ticket-sales agencies, pornography (a $2 billion business in America last year, according to Adult Video News, a trade magazine), online dating and a host of other activities, from tracing ances
7、tors to gambling (worth perhaps $6 billion worldwide). They also leave out purchases in grey markets, such as the online pharmacies that are thought to be responsible for a good proportion of the $700m that Americans spent last year on buying cut-price prescription drugs from across the border in Ca
8、nada. And there is more. The commerce departments figures include the fees earned by internet auction sites, but not the value of goods that are sold: an astonishing $24 billion-worth of trade was done last year on eBay, the biggest online auctioneer. Nor, by definition, do they include the billions
9、 of dollars-worth of goods bought and sold by businesses connecting to each other over the internet. Some of these B2B services are proprietary; for example, Wal-Mart tells its suppliers that they must use its own system if they want to be part of its annual turnover of $250 billion. So e-commerce i
10、s already very big, and it is going to get much bigger. But the actual value of transactions currently concluded online is dwarfed by the extraordinary influence the internet is exerting over purchases carried out in the offline world. That influence is becoming an integral part of e-commerce. To st
11、art with, the internet is profoundly changing consumer behaviour. One in five customers walking into a Sears department store in America to buy an electrical appliance will have researched their purchase onlineand most will know down to a dime what they intend to pay. More surprisingly, three out of
12、 four Americans start shopping for new cars online, even though most end up buying them from traditional dealers. The difference is that these customers come to the showroom armed with information about the car and the best available deals. Sometimes they even have computer print-outs identifying th
13、e particular vehicle from the dealers stock that they want to buy. Half of the 60m consumers in Europe who have an internet connection bought products offline after having investigated prices and details online, according to a study by Forrester, a research consultancy (see chart 1). Different count
14、ries have different habits. In Italy and Spain, for instance, people are twice as likely to buy offline as online after researching on the internet. But in Britain and Germany, the two most developed internet markets, the numbers are evenly split. Forrester says that people begin to shop online for
15、simple, predictable products, such as DVDs, and then graduate to more complex items. Used-car sales are now one of the biggest online growth areas in America. People seem to enjoy shopping on the internet, if high customer-satisfaction scores are any guide. Websites are doing ever more and cleverer
16、things to serve and entertain their customers, and seem set to take a much bigger share of peoples overall spending in the future. This has enormous implications for business. http:/ A company that neglects its website may be committing commercial suicide. A website is increasingly becoming the gate
17、way to a companys brand, products and serviceseven if the firm does not sell online. A useless website suggests a useless company, and a rival is only a mouse-click away. But even the coolest website will be lost in cyberspace if people cannot find it, so companies have to ensure that they appear hi
18、gh up in internet search results. For many users, a search site is now their point of entry to the internet. The best-known search engine has already entered the lexicon: people say they have “Googled” a company, a product or their plumber. The search business has also developed one of the most effe
19、ctive forms of advertising on the internet. And it is already the best way to reach some consumers: teenagers and young men spend more time online than watching television. All this means that search is turning into the internets next big battleground as Google defends itself against challenges from
20、 Yahoo! and Microsoft. The other way to get noticed online is to offer goods and services through one of the big sites that already get a lot of traffic. Ebay, Yahoo! and Amazon are becoming huge trading platforms for other companies. But to take part, a companys products have to stand up to intense
21、 price competition. People check online prices, compare them with those in their local high street and may well take a peek at what customers in other countries are paying. Even if websites are prevented from shipping their goods abroad, there are plenty of web-based entrepreneurs ready to oblige. W
22、hat is going on here is arbitrage between different sales channels, says Mohanbir Sawhney, professor of technology at the Kellogg School of Management in Chicago. For instance, someone might use the internet to research digital cameras, but visit a photographic shop for a hands-on demonstration. “Il
23、l think about it,” they will tell the sales assistant. Back home, they will use a search engine to find the lowest price and buy online. In this way, consumers are “deconstructing the purchasing process”, http:/ says Professor Sawhney. They are unbundling product information from the transaction its
24、elf. It is not only price transparency that makes internet consumers so powerful; it is also the way the net makes it easy for them to be fickle. If they do not like a website, they swiftly move on. “The web is the most selfish environment in the world,” says Daniel Rosensweig, chief operating offic
25、er of Yahoo! “People want to use the internet whenever they want, how they want and for whatever they want.” Yahoo! is not alone in defining its strategy as working out what its customers (260m unique users every month) are looking for, and then trying to give it to them. The first thing they want i
26、s to become better informed about products and prices. “We operate our business on that belief,” says Jeff Bezos, Amazons chief executive. Amazon became famous for books, but long ago branched out into selling lots of other things too; among its latest ventures are health products, jewellery and gou
27、rmet food. Apart from cheap and bulky items such as garden rakes, Mr Bezos thinks he can sell most things. And so do the millions of people who use eBay. And yet nobody thinks real shops are finished, especially those operating in niche markets. Many bricks-and-mortar bookshops still make a good liv
28、ing, as do flea markets. But many record shops and travel agents could be in for a tougher time. Erik Blachford, the head of IACs travel side and boss of Expedia, the biggest internet travel agent, thinks online travel bookings in America could quickly move from 20% of the market to more than half.
29、Mr Bezos reckons online retailers might capture 10-15% of retail sales over the next decade. That would represent a massive shift in spending. How will traditional shops respond? Michael Dell, the founder of Dell, which leads the personal-computer market by selling direct to the customer, has long t
30、hought many shops will turn into showrooms. There are already signs of change on the high street. The latest Apple and Sony stores are designed to display products, in the full expectation that many people will buy online. To some extent, the online and offline worlds may merge. Multi-channel sellin
31、g could involve a combination of traditional shops, a printed catalogue, a home-shopping channel on TV, a phone-in order service and an e-commerce-enabled website. But often it is likely to be the website where customers will be encouraged to place their orders. One of the biggest commercial advanta
32、ges of the internet is a lowering of transaction costs, which usually translates directly into lower prices for the consumer. So, if the lowest prices can be found on the internet and people like the service they get, why would they buy anywhere else? One reason may be convenience; another, concern
33、about fraud, which poses the biggest threat to online trade. But as long as the internet continues to deliver price and product information quickly, cheaply and securely, e-commerce will continue to grow. Increasingly, companies will have to assume that customers will know exactly where to look for
34、the best buy. This market has the potential to become as perfect as it gets. 译文 一个完美的市场 资料来源 ： 经济学 人， 2004（ 3） 作者： 詹姆士 威尔逊 保罗 Markillie说电子商务是时代的到来，但并不像预期中的泡沫年代 当 2000年科技泡沫爆发时，备受炒作的网上公司 好像 随之蒸发了，众多的网上贸易也被迫流产。劫后余生网上公司无一不紧缩商务，好在与日俱增的互联网用户在激励着他们。现在，对网上公司的评价又有所提高了，并且很多 .com公司的确也已开始赢利了，但工商界还是谨慎地评价互联网的潜能。尽
35、管如此，有人已大胆的预言：世界上大量经济巨头不久都会以某种方式移师电脑空间。据商务部不完全统计表明，去年网上零售额增加了 26%，达到 550亿美元。这听起来的确是一个很大的数目，但这仅相当于全球零售业总额的 1.6%。大部分的成年消费者依然习惯于到 “砖 +混凝土 ”（ bricks-and-mortar）的世界里消费。其实商务部公布的数字仅涉及部分产业。例如，该数字虽然包括了网上旅游服务，这一电子商务界最成功也是增长最快的行业之一。 IAC (InterActiveCorp)， 和 两个站的拥有者，去年仅它一家就有 100 亿美元的营业额，包括航空业、宾馆业、出租车公司在内的竞争对手去年
36、网上营业总额也有大幅攀升，但这些网上营业额攀升的企业在商务部的数字中并未得到体现。 同样，商务部的数字也没有包含财经服务、票务代理、网上色情 （据 （去年美国网上色情业营业额高达 20亿美元）等行业在内。另外大量与博彩业相关的商业形为 (世界范围内的网上博彩业营业额高达 60亿美元 )也没有提及。 另外，商务部的数字虽然包括了拍卖网站的利润，却没有包含所拍卖成交货物的价值在内，据估算，其价值高达数百亿美元。去年仅 eBay 这家最大的拍卖网站出手的货物价值就高达 240亿美元。按照商务部的界定，数十亿美元的成交货物总价值是没有包括其中的，况且很多 B2B模式的商贸形为都是不公开的，例如 Wal
37、-Mart 公司就明确地告 诫其供货商，若想成为其 2500 亿美元的营业额的一部分，必需采用自己的运转体系。 由以上数字可以看出，电子商务已是很有规模了，并且正在发展壮大。但是网上交易额正受到离线交易的冲击，而离线交易又是电子商务的一个重要组成部分。 互联网正深深地改变着消费者的消费行为。目前，有 1/5 的美国人在到商店购买电子产品前，会先到网上去查询其最低价，以节省哪怕一毛钱。更让人吃惊的是，有 3/4 的美国人在购买新汽车时也会首先想到互联网，即使最后成交仍可能是用传统的方式 -从经销商那购买，但他们会到网上去了解有关要购汽车的各种信息 ，并选定网上推荐的最好的经销商。有时，他们还会到
38、相关网站上去打印自己感兴趣的汽车的图片等资料作参考。 作为资深调查顾问的 Forrester先生提供的图表显示，在欧洲 6亿消费者中，有半数采取在网上查询商品信息，然后离线购买的方式来消费。当然不同国家又有不同的消费习惯，例如在意大利和西班牙，采取在网上查询然后离线购买的人数大约是网上直接购买的两倍。但在德国和英国这两个最发达的网络国家里，二者基本相当。 Forrester 称，人们从网上购物一般都是从一些简单的物品开始的，如 DVD 光盘，然后向较复杂的商品过渡。在美国 ，二手汽车是一个增长最快的一个领域。 如果网站的顾客导购做的成功的话，人们看来是乐意采取网上购物方式的，现在网站正在变的越
39、来越明智，它们给顾客更多更实在的服务。在不久的将来，网上购物占人们购物总额的比例肯定会有大的提高。 网站建设对商业行为来说意义重大。一个不注重网站建设的公司无异于是在商战中自杀。即便公司并不从事网上交易，网站也会成为人们了解其商标、产品及服务的门户。在电脑空间，一个无价值的网站往往预示着一个无价值的公司，他只会在人们的鼠标点击下被无情舍弃。所以一个成功的公司一定要建成一个优秀的网站，以确 保它能出现在每次搜索结果的前列。 对很多用户而言，一个搜索站点往往是他们进入互联网的切入点。全球知名的搜索引擎早已进入当代词典：人们会说他 “Google”了一个公司，一个产品或是一个管道工。这种搜索行为也成
40、为了互联网上最有成效的广告途径之一。并且这也是接近青少年这一顾客群体最好的方式，因为他们花在互联网上的时间远远超过看电视的时间。所有这些都说明，网上搜索成了互联网的一下个战场，例如， Google就是依赖其优异的搜索功能来抗衡 Yahoo!和 Microsoft。 另一条忠告就是公司最好在一家已拥有相当访问量 的网站上登载自己的商品及服务。 Ebay、 Yahoo、 Amazon正在某些方面成为众多公司的展示自己商品的巨大平台，不过一个公司要参与到这个平台中来，则必需经得住激烈的价格战。网上消费者往往会拿商品网上报价与当地商店里作一比较，甚至会与别的国家的售价进行比较，即使网上销售在境外是被禁
41、止的，也会有大量的基于网站销售方式的业主积极去运作。 芝加哥 Kellogg管理学院的科技教授 Mohanbir Sawhney说，我们应清楚现今消费者购物行为的改变。例如，某人想买一部数字照相机，他会先到附近的商店里去考察实物，选好 型号后，他会和售货员说： “ 我回去考虑一下再来 ”，然后他回家就会到网上去查该型号相机的最低售价，然后在网上订购。所以从这个意义上说，消费者已不再遵从传统的购物流程。 不只是互联网上透明的价格使得消费者成为强势群体，网络也使得他们成为 “薄情 ”一族，如果他们不喜欢某一网站则会毫不犹豫地离开。 “网络是世界上最自私的场所 ”， Yahoo!执行总裁 Danie
42、l Rosensweig 称， “人们应用互联网可谓，随时、随地、随人所欲 ”。 像 Yahoo!这样，致力于寻找并提供客户需要的各种信息的网站并不在少数（ Yahoo!每月据称有 2。 6 亿访问者）。消费者最关心的就是最详实的商品名录及其报价， Amazon执行总裁 Jeff Bezos说： “我们经营的基础是消费者的信任 ”。Amazon现在已是世界闻名的图书经销商，以前它也曾在网上销售过其它产品，例如保健品、珠宝和精选的食品。 Bezos 先生认为除仓储超市里那些体积大价格低的物品外，他们甚至可以出售一切，这也是数以百万计的消费者选择 eBay的原因。 即便如此，没有人会认为传统意义的
43、商店可以消失，特别是那些 “投机 ”性更强的领域。许多 “砖 +混凝土 ”的商店仍有着不凡的业绩，例如杂货 市场等， 但象音像和旅游市场则受到了来自互联网实实在在的冲击。作为互联网上最大的旅游代理商的 Expedia 旅游公司，其老板声称未来美国民众网上预订旅游服务的比例，将会从如今的 20%上升到 50%。 Bezos 先生估计未来十年网上零售业将会达到零售总额的 10-15%，并将深刻地改变人们的消费观念。 面对来势汹汹的网上营销，传统的商场将如何应对呢？ Dell 计算机公司的创始人 Michael Dell 先生，一直领导个人计算机的直销市场，他认为凭借各层销售商店去出售计算机的方式只
44、能进陈列馆作为古董了， Dell 采用的直销方 式已收到了良好的效果。近来， Apple 和 Sony的专卖店计划展示全部可以在网上查到的该品牌商品，也是应对措施之一。从长远看，网上和离线销售方式也必将融合，传统商店也将成为多种销售手段并存的集合体：打印出的商品名录、家庭电视直销、电视订货以及电子商务网站具全。但从消费者角度来说，从网上订货还是他们最为乐意的消费方式。 网上销售最大的优势就在于其低价，这是因为网上商品没有多层中转，于是也就没有多层加价，它们一般都是直接从生产厂家直接到消费者。如果在互联网上消费者可以买到最低价格的商品并能得到最好的服务，还会有 人去其它地方购物吗 ？ 当然，消费才在网上购物时，可能会面对欺诈行为。但随着互联网的发展，它传递商品信息速度进一步加快，加上提供同一商品的多家网站必然会考虑自己的长远发展，而争相提供准确翔实的商品信息和价格，并提供优质服务，以抓住更多的用户。所以网上市场肯定会越来越完善。
