1、1外文翻译原文ECOMMERCEANDTHEMARKETSTRUCTUREOFRETAILINDUSTRIESMATERIALSOURCETHEECONOMICJOURNAL,120JUNE,651682AUTHORMARISGOLDMANIS,ALIHORTACSU,CHADSYVERSONANDONSELEMRETHISARTICLEEXPLORESHOWTHEADVENTANDDIFFUSIONOFECOMMERCEIMPACTSTHESTRUCTUREOFRETAILANDSIMILARINDUSTRIESWHILETHEREISABURGEONINGLITERATURESTUDYIN
2、GHOWECOMMERCEHASAFFECTEDPRICESANDPRICEDISPERSION,MUCHLESSWORKHASLOOKEDATHOWTHEDIFFUSIONOFTHEINTERNETHASINUENCEDTHENUMBERORTYPEOFPRODUCERSTHATOPERATEINANINDUSTRYTHATIS,QUESTIONSOFWHICHBUSINESSESMOSTBENETANDMOSTSUFFERPERHAPSTOTHEPOINTOFHAVINGTOCEASEOPERATIONSFROMTHENEWCONSUMERMATCHINGANDDISTRIBUTIONSY
3、STEMSTHATECOMMERCEBRINGSHAVERECEIVEDLITTLEATTENTIONCONVENTIONALWISDOMSUGGESTSTHATSUCHEFFECTSCANBELARGEANDDIVERSEINIMPACTTHERAPIDGROWTHOFORBITZ,TRAVELOCITYANDEXPEDIAATTHEEXPENSEOFLOCALTRAVELAGENCIESISONEOFTCITEDEXAMPLEYETWEDONOTYETKNOWQUANTITATIVELYJUSTHOWLARGETHISPARTICULAREFFECTHASBEENORWHETHERSIMI
4、LARMECHANISMSOPERATEACROSSDIFFERENTINDUSTRIESTHISARTICLESEEKSTOBEGINTOADDRESSTHESEISSUESITISALMOSTCERTAINTHATMORETHANJUSTEQUILIBRIUMPRICESAREAFFECTEDWHENCOMMERCESPREADSINANINDUSTRYMARKETSHARESAREVERYLIKELYTOCHANGEGIVENTHEEDUCTIONINCONSUMERSEARCHCOSTSTHATECOMMERCECANBRING,ANYRMSPRICEDVANTAGEWILLBEMUL
5、TIPLIEDINTERMSOFMARKETSHAREGAINSHIGHERCROSSPRICEELASTIITIESIMPLYDIFFERENTIALIMPACTSONINDUSTRYRMSDEPENDINGONWHETHERTHEYHAVEAOSTADVANTAGEORDISADVANTAGERELATIVETOTHEIRCOMPETITORSITISALSOQUITELIKELYTHATHESEMARKETSHARECHANGESCANBEDRASTICENOUGHTOLEADSOMERMSTOEXITFROMTHEMARKETENTIRELYONTHEOTHERHAND,LOWERSE
6、ARCHCOSTSCOULDALSOINDUCENEWENTRYINTOHEINDUSTRYPRESUMABLY,THOUGH,THESEENTRANTSMAYDIFFERONAVERAGEFROMINDUSTRYNCUMBENTSBECAUSEECOMMERCEHASRAISEDTHERETURNTOBEINGEFCIENTOR,LTERNATIVELY,TOBEINGABLETOPRODUCEHIGHQUALITYGOODSINSUCHWAYS,ECOMMERCEANHAVEIMPORTANTENTRYANDEXITCONSEQUENCESASWELLOURINVESTIGATIVEAPP
7、ROACHCOMBINESTHEORETICALANDEMPIRICALANALYSESWE2RSTMODELEQUILIBRIUMINANINDUSTRYCOMPRISEDOFHETEROGENEOUSRMSSELLINGTOASETOFCONSUMERSWHODIFFERINTHEIRSEARCHCOSTSHETEROGENEITYACROSSRMSARISESFROMDIFFERENCESINUNDERLYINGABILITIESLIKEPRODUCTIONCOSTSOROUTPUTQUALITYWEEMBODYTHEMASDIFFERINGMARGINALCOSTSFORTHESAKE
8、OFCONCRETENESS,THOUGHITISEASYTOMODIFYTHEMODELTOALLOWVARIATIONINPRODUCTQUALITYLEVELSINSTEADINDUSTRYCONSUMERSSEARCHSEQUENTIALLYWHENDECIDINGFROMWHOMTOBUYFIRMSSETPRICESGIVENCONSUMERSOPTIMALSEARCHBEHAVIOURASWELLASTHEIROWNANDTHEIRRIVALSPRODUCTIONCOSTSFIRMSTHATCANNOTCOVERTHEIRXEDCOSTSEXITTHEINDUSTRYINITIAL
9、ENTRYINTOTHEINDUSTRYISGOVERNEDBYANENTRYCOSTWEINTERPRETTHEADVENTANDDIFFUSIONOFECOMMERCEASALEFTWARDSHIFTINTHECONSUMERSEARCHCOSTDISTRIBUTIONWEUSEOURMODELTOSHOWHOWECOMMERCEACTIVITYIMPACTSONEQUILIBRIUMMARKETSTRUCTURETHEMODELOFFERSPREDICTIONSABOUTNOTJUSTEQUILIBRIUMPRICESBUTALSOMARKETSHARES,THENUMBEROFPROD
10、UCERSANDTHEPRODUCERTYPEMARGINALCOSTDISTRIBUTIONCONSISTENTLYWITHPREVIOUSLITERATURE,THEMODELPREDICTSADECLINEINEQUILIBRIUMAVERAGEPRICELEVELSANDPRICEDISPERSIONTHEMORENOVELIMPLICATIONSOFOURWORK,HOWEVER,REGARDWHATHAPPENSTOTHEEQUILIBRIUMDISTRIBUTIONOFRMTYPESHERETHEMODELPREDICTSTHATTHEINTRODUCTIONOFECOMMERC
11、EINTOANINDUSTRYSHOULDRESULTINTHESHRINKINGANDSOMETIMESEXITOFLOWTYPEIE,HIGHCOSTRMS,ASHIFTINMARKETSHARETOHIGHTYPELOWCOSTRMS,ANDWITHSOMEADDITIONALASSUMPTIONSABOUTTHERMTYPEANDCONSUMERSEARCHCOSTDISTRIBUTIONS,ADROPINTHENUMBEROFPRODUCERSASWELLWETESTTHEMODELUSINGUSCOUNTYBUSINESSPATTERNSCBPDATAFROM19942003CBP
12、DATACONTAIN,ATTHEDETAILEDINDUSTRYLEVEL,THETOTALNUMBEROFESTABLISHMENTSSTORESASWELLASTHEIRSIZEDISTRIBUTIONWHILEWECANNOTMEASUREPRODUCERTYPESDIRECTLY,WECANUSESIZEASAPROXYHENCESHIFTSINTHESIZEDISTRIBUTIONAREINFORMATIVEABOUTHETEROGENEOUSEFFECTSOFECOMMERCEWITHINANINDUSTRYTHEPANELNATUREOFTHEDATAALLOWSUSTOFOC
13、USONCHANGESINTHEDISTRIBUTIONOVERTIMEWITHINLOCALMARKETS,REMOVINGPOSSIBLYCONFOUNDINGDIFFERENCESINTECHNOLOGYORDEMANDACROSSMARKETSWEIDENTIFYLOCALDIFFERENCESINTHEIMPACTOFECOMMERCEIE,THESIZEOFTHESHIFTINTHELOCALSEARCHCOSTDISTRIBUTIONUSINGCONSUMERLEVELSURVEYDATATOMEASURETHEFRACTIONOFTHELOCALPOPULATIONWHOREP
14、ORTBUYINGGOODSANDSERVICESONLINEWEFOCUSTHEEMPIRICALTESTSONTHREEINDUSTRIESPERCEIVEDTOHAVEBEENCONSIDERABLYIMPACTEDBYECOMMERCETRAVELAGENCIES,BOOKSTORES,ANDNEWCAR3DEALERSWENDSUPPORTFORTHEPREDICTIONSOFTHETHEORETICALMODELGROWTHINCONSUMERSUSEOFTHEINTERNETFORPURCHASESISLINKEDTODECLINESINTHENUMBEROFSMALLANDPR
15、ESUMABLYLOWTYPEESTABLISHMENTSBUTHASEITHERNOSIGNICANTIMPACTOREVENPOSITIVEIMPACTONGROWTHINTHEINDUSTRIESNUMBERSOFLARGEESTABLISHMENTSINTERESTINGLY,WHILETHEINDUSTRIESEXPERIENCESIMILARPATTERNSINMARKETSHARESHIFTS,THESPECICMECHANISMSLINKINGDECLININGSEARCHCOSTSTOTHESHIFTSDIFFEREDACROSSTHEINDUSTRIESTHESHIFTSI
16、NTHETRAVELAGENCYINDUSTRYREECTEDAGGREGATECHANGESDRIVENLARGELYBYAIRLINESCUTTINGAGENTCOMMISSIONSASCONSUMERSINCREASINGLYSHIFTEDTOONLINETICKETSOURCESINBOOKSTORESANDNEWCARDEALERS,ONTHEOTHERHAND,THEEVIDENCESUGGESTSTHATTHEDECLINEINSMALLRETAILOUTLETSREECTMARKETSPECICIMPACTSOFINTERNETDIFFUSIONOURMODELCOMBINES
17、ELEMENTSOFTWODISTINCTTHEORETICALLITERATURESONEISTHESETOFSEARCHMODELSWITHCONSUMERSTHATHAVEHETEROGENEOUSSEARCHCOSTSOURCONCEPTUALAPPROACHOFTREATINGTHEDIFFUSIONOFECOMMERCETECHNOLOGIESASSHIFTINGCONSUMERSSEARCHCOSTSPERHAPSDISPARATELYFORDIFFERENTCONSUMERSISTHEOBVIOUSMOTIVATIONFORDRAWINGONTHISPREVIOUSWORKTH
18、ESECONDLITERATUREINVOLVESINDUSTRYEQUILIBRIUMMODELSTHATFEATUREHETEROGENEOUSPRODUCERSANDENDOGENOUSSELECTIONINTOPRODUCTIONTHISMEANSTHATECOMMERCEINTHISINDUSTRYFUNCTIONSINAWAYTHATALMOSTEXACTLYMATCHESHOWWEEMBODYITINTHEMODELTHATIS,ITISPURELYADEMANDSIDEDEVICETHATLOWERSCONSUMERSCOSTSOFGATHERINGPRODUCTINFORMA
19、TIONTHEESSENTIALTECHNOLOGYOFPRODUCTIONANDDELIVERYINTHEINDUSTRYISUNCHANGED,EVENAMONGANYNEWPRODUCERSTHATMIGHTENTERTHEMARKETAFTERTHECHANGEINSEARCHCOSTSTHUSNEWCARDEALERSALLOWUSTOSEEQUITEDIRECTLYHOWREDUCTIONSINSEARCHCOSTSIMPACTANESSENTIALLYISOLATEDSETOFRETAILERSWHOSEBASICDISTRIBUTIONTECHNOLOGYISNOTIMPACT
20、EDBYECOMMERCETHEONLYCHANGETHEYFACEISINHOWEASYITISFORCONSUMERSTONDOUTABOUTTHEIRPRODUCTSORTOBEMATCHEDTOLOWPRICEDEALERSHIPSTHISARTICLEHASINVESTIGATEDTHEEQUILIBRIUMMARKETSTRUCTURECHANGESSPURREDBYTHEINTRODUCTIONOFECOMMERCETOOLSTHATREDUCECONSUMERSSEARCHCOSTSWESPECIEDAGENERALINDUSTRYMODELINVOLVINGCONSUMERS
21、WITHDIFFERINGSEARCHCOSTSBUYINGPRODUCTSFROMHETEROGENEOUSTYPEPRODUCERSSOLVINGFORTHEEQUILIBRIUMINTHEGENERALCASE,WESHOWEDHOWSHIFTSINTHECONSUMERSEARCHCOSTDISTRIBUTIONIMPACTEQUILIBRIUMPRICESANDMARKETSHARESSPECICALLY,DOWNWARDSHIFTSINSEARCHCOSTSLEADTOLOWERPRICESANDSHIFTMARKETSHAREFROMLOWTYPEPRODUCERSTOTHEIN
22、DUSTRYSHIGHTYPEBUSINESSES4WHILETHEREISANEMPIRICALLITERATUREINVESTIGATINGTHEADVENTANDDIFFUSIONOFECOMMERCEONPRICES,LITTLEHASBEENDONEREGARDINGTHEMARKETSTRUCTUREIMPACTSSPECICALLY,THESHIFTSINMARKETSHAREFROMLOWTOHIGHTYPEBUSINESSESTHATOURMODELPREDICTSWETESTTHESEPREDICTIONSINTHREEINDUSTRIESFORWHICHTHEINTROD
23、UCTIONOFECOMMERCEHASARGUABLYDECREASEDCONSUMERSSEARCHCOSTSCONSIDERABLYTRAVELAGENCIES,BOOKSTORES,ANDNEWCARDEALERSWEFOUNDEVIDENCEOFTHEMARKETSHARESHIFTSPREDICTEDBYTHEMODELASCONSUMERSUSEOFTHEINTERNETTOMAKEPURCHASESROSE,SMALLERESTABLISHMENTSWHERESIZEREECTSRMTYPEDECLINEDINNUMBERANDLARGERESTABLISHMENTSBECAM
24、EMOREDOMINANTINTERESTINGLY,WHILETHENATUREOFTHEMARKETSHAREREALLOCATIONSWERESIMILARINTHEINDUSTRIES,THESPECICMECHANISMSTHROUGHWHICHTHEDECLININGSEARCHCOSTSCREATEDTHEMWEREDIFFERENTFORTRAVELAGENCIES,THESHIFTSREECTEDAGGREGATECHANGES,COMMONACROSSMARKETS,DRIVENINLARGEPARTBYAIRLINESREDUCTIONSINAGENTCOMMISSION
25、SINRESPONSETOCONSUMERSINCREASINGUSEOFONLINESOURCESTOBUYTICKETSTHISISEVIDENCEDBYTHEFACTTHATONCETHESEAGGREGATECHANGESININTERNETPURCHASINGPATTERNSWERECONTROLLEDFOR,THEREWASNOINDICATIONTHATTHEMAGNITUDEOFTHEMARKETSHARECHANGESWEREANYLARGERSMALLERINMARKETSEXPERIENCINGIDIOSYNCRATICALLYHIGHLOWGROWTHINCONSUME
26、RSONLINEPURCHASESFORBOOKSTORESANDCARDEALERS,ONTHEOTHERHAND,THEREWASEVIDENCETHATMOREEXITOCCURREDAMONGSMALLERSTORESINTHOSEMARKETSWHEREINTERNETUSEGREWFASTESTTHISSUGGESTSTHATTHEINDUSTRYWIDEDECLINESINSMALLBOOKSTORESANDCARDEALERSREECTMARKETSPECICIMPACTS译文电子商务与零售产业的市场结构资料来源THEECONOMICJOURNAL,120JUNE,651682
27、作者MARISGOLDMANIS,ALIHORTACSU,CHADSYVERSONANDONSELEMRE本文探索了电子商务的出现与传播如何影响零售产业以及相似产业的结构。当越来越多的文献研究电子商务如何影响价格以及价格分布，极少的文献致力于研究因特网的发展如何影响一个产业中生产者的数量和类型。具体来说，就是电子商务所带来的全新个性化服务和传播系统对商业中得失的影响，这一方面的研究甚少。传统观念认为此类影响将是巨大的，多样化的，然而我们无法量化地了解这种特殊影响究竟有多大，而这种影响是否通用于不同行业，本5文试图去解决这些问题。有一点可以肯定的是当产业商业化，除了平衡价格，很多东西都会受影响。
28、市场份额会变化，鉴于电子商务带来的消费者调研，所有公司的价格优势都将随市场份额的积累成倍增长。更高的交叉价格弹性意味着公司相对于它的竞争者的优势或劣势将对产业产生不同影响，同时这些市场份额的变化极有可能使一些公司完全退出市场。另一方面，更低的研究支出将引发进入市场的新途径。即便如此，这些新入者一般都不同于原来的产业人员，因为电子商务已经提高了高效率带来的回报。在这个层面，电子商务已然有了重要的进入和退出效应。我们研究的手段结合了理论和经验分析。首先模拟了一个包含着各种公司产业的均衡价格，它们的目标在获取信息成本上存在差别。公司之间的差异化来源于潜在能力的差异，如生产成本和输出质量。我们将它们代
29、表为不同的边缘成本，虽然调整产品质量的差异很容易，目标消费者们将逐个获取信息来决定从谁那里购买。公司制定价格给消费者最好的信息效果，以及他们自己和对手的生产成本。无法在这方面固定支出的公司将被淘汰，要进入这个产业将由进入成本决定。我们将电子商务的出现与传播解释为消费者信息成本支出的转移。我们运用模板来显示电子商务活动对平衡市场结构的影响，模板提供了对于平衡价格和市场份额、生产者数量、生产者类型分布的预期。与之前文献一致的是，模板预期了平衡价格水平和价格散布的下降。我们将考虑到公司类型的平衡分布，模板预期电子商务引入一个产业将导致一些低端公司的缩小或退出市场，市场份额将流入高端公司。我们用199
30、4年至2003年美国乡镇商业模式测试了这个模板，美国模式中的数据包含具体的产业水平，商店的总数以及规模大小的分布。我们无法正确衡量生产者类型，但是我们可以通过规模大小来代为衡量。数据库内的面板特性使得我们可以专注于当地商场长时间以来销售的变化，不考虑商场间技术上或需求上混乱的差别。我们用消费者问卷资料来衡量当地上网购物或上网服务人数的比例，从而定义电子商务的不同影响。我们将经验调查致力于相比之下大受电子商务影响的三个产业旅游中介公司，书店和新车买卖商。从理论架构的预期中找到依据，消费者运用网络进行购买活动的增加与小公司数量下降有关，但是对大公司数量上升无实质影响。有趣的是，当产业经历了类似的市
31、场份额变化，具体的和信息成本相关的机制随着行业的不同而不同。旅游中介机构的变化反映在随着客户逐渐倾向网上购票，航班缩减了中介佣金。另外一方面，书店和汽车经销商小公司数量减少。模板包含了两个不同的理论架构。一个是搜索模板中消费者有各种各样的搜索成本，我们对于电子商务技术传播对象搜索成本影响的理论方法显然是一6个从之前工作中带来的灵感。第二个包含了生产中不同生产者的平衡结构。这就意味着电子商务在此产业中以和我们模板中相符的方式运作，也就是，它纯粹降低了消费者收集产品信息的成本。生产和运输必要的技术没有变化，对于在搜索成本变化后进入市场的生产者来说，也是如此。他们面对的唯一的变化就是消费者会更加容易
32、发现产品是否和中介费相对应。本文研究了电子商务的引入，通过减少消费者的搜索成本使得平衡的市场结构发生变化。发展了具体工业结构包含消费者从各种生产者中不同的搜索成本。一般情况下解决平衡，说明了消费者搜索成本对平衡价格和市场份额带来的变化。具体说来，搜索成本的下降带来了更低的价格和市场份额从低端生产者流向高端生产者。经验主义的文献研究了电子商务的出现和传播对价格的影响，但没有对市场结构影响作出解释，具体来说就是模板中所说的市场份额由低向高流动。我们在三个产业中测试了这个预期。我们发现了模板显示的市场份额流动，消费者运用因特网来增加购买行为，小公司在数量上减少，大公司变得更加主导。有趣的是，在各个产业中市场份额重新分布的本质相似，具体的减少搜索成本的方式不同。就旅游中介来说，变化反映在总量变化，被大部分航空公司主导的在中介佣金上的缩减来应对越来越多消费者通过网络购票。一旦因特网购买模式接受管理，没有什么可以暗示市场份额变化将愈发重要。另外一方面，对于书店和汽车经销商，在一些因特网使用增长最快的市场，小公司退出市场的现象出现得越频繁，这就意味着行业范围内小汽车经销商和书店的减少反映了具体的市场效应。
