1、 1 外文翻译 原文 Investment Valuation Tools and Techniques for Determining the Value of any Asset Material Source: Author: Damodaran In much of this book, we have taken on the role of a passive investor valuing going concerns. In this chapter, we switch roles and look at valuation from the perspective of
2、 those who can make a difference in the way a company is run and hence its value. Our focus is therefore on how actions taken by managers and owners can change the value of a firm. We will use the discounted cash flow framework that we have developed in earlier parts of the book to explore the requi
3、rements for an action to be value creating and then go on to examine the different ways in which a firm can create value. In the process, we will also examine the role that marketing decisions, production decisions, and strategic decisions have in value creation. Value Creating and Value Neutral Act
4、ions The value of a firm is the present value of the expected cash flows from both assets in place and future growth, discounted at the cost of capital. For an action to create value, it has to do one or more of the following. 1. increase the cash flows generated by existing investments 2. increase
5、the expected growth rate in earnings 3. increase the length of the high growth period 4. reduce the cost of capital that is applied to discount the cash flows Conversely, an action that does not affect cash flows, the expected growth rate, the length of the high growth period or the cost of capital
6、cannot affect value. While this might seem obvious, a number of value-neutral actions taken by firms receive disproportionate attention from both managers and analysts. Consider four examples. Stock dividends and stock splits change the number of units of equity in a firm but do not affect cash flow
7、s, growth or value. These actions can have price effects, 2 though, because they alter investors perceptions of the future of the company. Accounting changes in inventory valuation and depreciation methods that are restricted to the reporting statements and do not affect tax calculations have no eff
8、ect on cash flows, growth or value. In recent years, firms have spent an increasing amount of time on the management and smoothing of earnings and seem to believe that there is a value payoff in doing this. When making acquisitions, firms often try to structure the deals in such a way that they can
9、pool their assets and not show the market premium paid in the acquisition. When they fail and they are forced to show the difference between market value and book value as goodwill, their earnings are reduced by the amortization of the goodwill over subsequent periods. This amortization is not tax d
10、eductible, however, and thus does not affect the cash flows of the firm. So, whether a firm adopts purchase or pooling accounting and the length of time it takes to write off the goodwill should not really make any difference to value. In the late 1990s, a number of firms that have issued tracking s
11、tock on their high-growth divisions. Since these divisions remain under the complete control of the parent company, we would argue that the issue of tracking stock, by itself, should not create value. Some would take issue with some of these propositions. When a stock splits or a firm issues trackin
12、g stock, they would argue, the stock price often goes up significantly. While this is true, we would emphasize that it is value, not price, that we claim is unaffected by these actions. While paying stock dividends, splitting stock and issuing tracking stock are value neutral actions, they can still
13、 be useful tools for a firm that perceives itself to be undervalued by the market. These actions can change market perceptions about growth or cash flows and thus act as signals to financial markets. Alternatively, they might provide more information about undervalued assets owned by the firm and th
14、e price may react as a consequence. In some cases, these actions may even lead to changes in operations; tying the compensation of managers to the price of stock tracking the division in which they work may improve efficiency and thus increase cash flows, growth and value. Ways of Increasing Value T
15、he value of a firm can be increased by increasing cash flows from assets in place, increasing expected growth and the length of the growth period and by 3 reducing the cost of capital. In reality, however, none of these is easily accomplished or likely to reflect all the qualitative factors that we,
16、 as financial analysts, are often accused of ignoring in valuation. In this section, we will consider how actions taken by a firm on a variety of fronts marketing, strategic and financial can have an effect on value. Increase Cash Flows from Existing Investments The first place to look for value is
17、in the firms existing assets. These assets represent investments the firm has already made and they generate the current operating income for the firm. To the extent that these investments earn less than their cost of capital or are earning less than they could if optimally managed, there is potenti
18、al for value creation. Poor Investments: Keep, Divest or Liquidate Every firm has some investments that earn less than necessary to break even (the cost of capital) and sometimes even lose money. At first sight, it would seem to be a simple argument to make those investments that do not earn their c
19、ost of capital should either be liquidated or divested. If, in fact, the firm could get back the original capital on liquidation, this statement would be true. But that assumption is not generally true and there are three different measures of value for an existing investment that we need to conside
20、r. The first is the continuing value and it reflects the present value of the expected cash flows from continuing the investment through the end of its life. The second is the liquidation or salvage value, which is the net cash flow that the firm will receive if it terminated the project today. Fina
21、lly, there is the divestiture value, which is the price that will be paid by the highest bidder for this investment. Whether a firm should continue with an existing project, liquidate the project, or sell it to someone else will depend upon which of the three is highest. If the continuing value is t
22、he highest, the firm should continue with the project to the end of the project life, even though it might be earning less than the cost of capital. If the liquidation or divestiture value is higher than the continuing value, there is potential for an increase in value from liquidation or divestitur
23、e. The value increment can then be summarized. If liquidation is optimal: Expected Value Increase = Liquidation Value Continuing Value If divestiture is optimal: Expected Value Increase = Divestiture Value - Continuing Value 4 How does a divestiture affect a firms value? To answer, we compare the pr
24、ice received on the divestiture to the present value of the expected cash flows that the firm would have received from the divested assets. There are three possible scenarios. 1. If the divestiture value is equal to the present value of the expected cash flows, the divestitures will have no effect o
25、n the divesting firms value. 2. If the divestiture value is greater than the present value of the expected cash flows, the value of the divesting firm will increase on the divestiture. 3. If the divestiture value is less than the present value of the expected cash flows, the value of the firm will d
26、ecrease on the divestiture. The divesting firm receives cash in return for the assets and can choose to retain the cash and invest it in marketable securities, invest the cash in other assets or new investments, or return the cash to stockholders in the form of dividends or stock buybacks. This acti
27、on, in turn, can have a secondary effect on value. The risk that we have discussed hitherto in this chapter relates to cash flows on investments being different from expected cash flows. There are some investments, however, in which the cash flows are promised when the investment is made. This is th
28、e case, for instance, when you lend to a business or buy a corporate bond; the borr- ower may default on interest and principal payments on the borrowing. Generally speaking, borrowers with higher default risk should pay higher interest rates on their borrowing than those with lower default risk. Th
29、is section examines the measure- ment of default risk and the relationship of default risk to interest rates on borrow- ing. In contrast to the general risk and return models for equity, which evaluate the effects of market risk on expected returns, models of default risk measure the cones- quences
30、of firm-specific default risk on promised returns? While diversification can be used to explain why firm-specific risk will not be priced into expected returns for equities, the same rationale cannot be applied to securities that have limited upside potential and much greater downside potential from
31、 firm-specific events. To see what we mean by limited upside potential, consider investing in the bond issued by a company. The coupons are fixed at the time of the issue and these coupons represent the promised cash flow on the bond. The best case scenario for you as an investor is that you receive
32、 the promised cash flows; you are not entitled to more than these cash flows even if the company is wildly successful. All other scenarios contain only bad news, though in varying degrees, with the delivered cash flows being less than 5 the promised cash flows. Consequently, the expected return on a
33、 corporate bond is likely to reflect the firm specific default risk of the firm issuing the bond. On investments with equity risk, the risk is best measured by looking at the variance of actual returns around the expected returns, with greater variance indicating greater risk. This risk can be broke
34、n down into risk that affects one or a few investments, which we call firm specific risk, and risk that affects many investments, which we refer to as market risk. When investors diversify, they can reduce their exposure to firm specific risk. By assuming that the investors who trade at the margin a
35、re well diversified, we conclude that the risk we should be looking at with equity investments is the market risk. The different models of equity risk introduced in this chapter share this objective of measuring market risk, but they differ in the way they do it. In the capital asset pricing model,
36、exposure to market risk is measured by a market beta, which estimates how much risk an individual investment will add to a portfolio that includes all traded assets. The arbitrage pricing model and the multi-factor model allow for multiple sources of market risk and estimate betas for an investment
37、relative to each source. Regression or proxy models for risk look for firm characteristics, such as size, that have been correlated with high returns in the past and use these to measure market risk. In all these models, the risk measures are used to estimate the expected return on an equity investm
38、ent. This expected return can be considered the cost of equity for a company. 译文 贴现现金流估值框架 资料来源 :豆 丁网 作 者：达姆达兰 在这本书的大部分 ,我们采取的是作为一种被动角色的投资者去关注评估。在这一章中，我们交换角色，从可以让一个公司在不同的经营方式下运行来看待企业价值。因此，我们的重点是管理人员和所有者是如何采取措施来改变一个公司的价值。 我们将使用贴现现金流量框架，这是我们所创造的一个模型，目的是为了适应价值创造探索的需求，然后再探讨使企业能够创造价值的各种不同的方法。在这个过程中，我们也会研
39、究营销决策、生产决策和战略决策在价值创造中起到的作用。 6 价值创造和价值中立行动 一个企业的价值是所拥有的资产以及未来增长的预期现金流量通过以资本成本贴现的 现值。作为一种价值创造的行动，它必须做到以下一个或多个条件。 1、增加现有投资产生的现金流量 2、提高收入的预期增长率 3、增加高增长期的时间跨度 4、降低适用于贴现现金流量的资金成本 相反地，一个经营举措，如果不影响现金流量，预期增长率，高增长期的时间跨度或资本成本，那么它也不能影响企业的价值。 虽然这可能看起来很明显，由企业采取价值中立的一系列行动，却收到了来自于管理者和分析师不相称的关注。请考虑以下几个例子。 1、股票股利和股票分
40、割改变在一个公司股票单位数量，但不影响公司的现金流量，成长或价值。这些行 动可以有价格影响，因为它们改变了投资者对公司未来的看法。对于存货计价和折旧方法的改变只限于对会计报表的影响，不会影响税款计算的变化，同样也不会对现金流，成长或价值产生影响。近年来，公司在管理上已用了越来越多的时间和收入平滑，似乎认为这样做会产生相应价值的回报。 2、收购时，企业往往试图采用这种结构下的交易方式，他们可以集中其资产，而不是显示市场溢价的收购支付。当他们失败时，他们被迫以显示市场价值与帐面价值的差额作为商誉，他们的收入减少了在以后期间的商誉摊销。但是，这摊销不扣税，因此不会影响到公司的现金流量。 所以，无论企
41、业是购买还是采用在一定长度的时间内运用会计核算核销商誉都不能真正对企业产生任何不同的价值。 3、在 90 年代末，许多公司已发出跟踪它们的高增长部门的股票。由于这些部门仍然在母公司完全控制之下，我们会认为跟踪发行的股票，其本身是不会创造价值的。 有些人会对这些主张产生疑问。当拆股或公司发行追踪股，他们会认为，股票价格往往会上涨。 虽然这是事实，但是我们要强调它是价值，而不是价格，我们认为通过这些行动的对价格没有什么影响。 虽然支付股票股利，股票分割，发行追踪股是价值中立行动，他们仍然是一个公司感知自 己被市场低估的有用工具。这些行动可以改变对经济增长或现金流量市场的看法，从而作为金融市场的信号
42、。或者，他们可能会提供更多有关该公司拥有的被低估资产的信息，在价格可能会作出最终反应。在某些情况下，这些行动甚至可能导致经营活动的变化 ;将管理者的补偿和跟踪股的股票价7 格联系起来，这样可以提高他们的工作效率，从而增加现金流量，加快企业成长和增加价值。 增加价值的途径 一个公司的价值，可以通过提高现有资产所带来的现金流量，提高的预期增长率和增长期，通过降低资本成本。但在现实中，作为金融分析师，这些都不是很容易实现的，可 能反映了所有的往往被忽略的估值定性因素。在本节中，我们将考虑一个公司如何从多方面采取各种可以对价值产生影响的行动，如市场营销，战略和财务 。 增加现有投资的现金流量 第一个寻
43、找公司价值的地方就是公司现有资产。这些资产代表公司已经进行的投资和它们为公司创造的目前经营收入。在某种程度上，这些投资的收入小于他们的资本成本，或它们所产生的收入要比它们在最佳管理的情况下所具有的潜在创造价值来的少。 穷人的投资：保持，剥离或清算 每家公司有一些必要的投资，赚取的比达到收支平衡（资本成本）少，有时甚至赔钱。乍一看，这似乎 是一个简单的理由，这样的投资赚不回他们的资本成本理应被清算，又或者是被出售。事实上，如果企业清算该项投资可以取得初始的投资资金，这种说法将是正确的。但是，这种假设不是通常都是对的，有三种不同的为现有投资的评估方法是我们需要考虑的。 首先是持续的价值，它反映了从
44、持续投资到结束所预期获得的投资现金流量的现值。二是清算或回收的价值，这就是公司将获得该项目的净现金流量，如果该项目今天终止今的话。最后，还有一个剥离值，这是由该投资价高者将要付出的代价。 无论企业是否应继续现有的项目，或清算该项目，或出售给别人，都将取决于三个之中哪个价值是最高的。如果继续持有现有项目的价值是最高的，企业应继续持有现有项目直到此项目结束，即使它的收入可能低于资本成本。如果清算或剥离价值大于继续持有现有项目的价值，说明从清算或资产剥离的中可以取得潜在增加价值。价值的增长量是可以进行核算的。 如果清算是最佳的：期望值增加 =清算价值 - 持续价值 如果资产剥离是最优的：期望值增加值 = 剥离价值 - 持续价值 剥离是如何影响企业价值的呢？要回答这一问题，我们需要比较剥离价值和该公司将收到来自剥离资产的预期现金流量的现值。这里有三种可能的方案。 1、 如果剥离的价值等于预期现金流量的现值，资产剥离将不会对企业的价值的产生影响。 2、如果剥离值大于预期现金流量的现值，剥离企业的价值将因剥离而增加。 8 3、如果剥离值比预期现金流量的现值小，该公司的价值将因剥离而减少。 该剥离公司将在资产中获得现金回报，然后可以选择保留现金和或将其投资于有价证券，或投资于其他资产或新的投资项目，或以股利或股票回购形式向股东返回现金。反过来，这一行动将对企业价值起到一个次要作用。
