1、本科毕业论文（设计）外文翻译原文THEFINANCIALRISKSINBOTPROJECTSINTHISRESEARCH,FINANCIALRISKSARECONSIDEREDASTHERISKSTHATHAVEANEGATIVEIMPACTONTHECASHFLOWSOFTHEFINANCIALPLANINAWAYTHATENDANGERSPROJECTSVIABILITYORLIMITSPROFITABILITYITINCLUDESABOUTSEVERALLEVELSOFMARKETROOTEDRISKSLOANRISKTHELOANSGRANTEDTOTHECONCESSIONAIRET
2、OFUNDTHECONSTRUCTIONOFABOTPROJECTCANBEOFSEVERALTYPESSHORTORLONGTERMLOANS,WITHFIXEDORFLOATINGINTERESTRATE,WITHSIMPLEORCOMPOUNDINTERESTTHETYPEOFTHELOAN,THECOST,WHICHINCLUDESALLNECESSARYCOSTSTOTAKEITOUTANDTHEINTERESTRATESTOREPAYITANDANYNECESSARYSPECIFICPROVISIONSAREINCLUDEDINTHESPECIFICLOANSYSTEMTHATGO
3、VERNSTHEWHOLELIFECYCLEOFTHEPROJECTTHEAPPROPRIATEPERCENTAGEOFLOANSTOTHEOVERALLFUNDINGPLANISAFUNCTIONOFMANYPARAMETERSINCLUDING,AMONGOTHERS,CONSIDERATIONSOFCONFLICTINGINTERESTSBETWEENTHELENDERSANDTHEBORROWERS,CREDIBILITYOFTHELENDINGORGANIZATIONSANDTHEBORROWERS,ABILITYFORADDITIONALLOANSORRENEWALOFTHEEXI
4、STINGONESANDSAFETYOFTHEDEBTAMORTIZATIONSCHEDULEANONPROTECTEDLOANSYSTEMAGAINSTALLRISKSWOULDDISCOURAGEPOTENTIALLENDERSFROMFUNDINGTHEPROJECTINTHEFIRSTPLACEORWOULDFORCETHEMTOTAKEEXTRASECURITYMEASURESFORTHEIRINVESTMENTWITHACONSEQUENTOVERBURDENOFTHETOTALCOSTSDIFFICULTIESOFTHECONCESSIONAIREINSERVINGTHEDEBT
5、OFLOANSCANCAUSEIMPOSITIONOFHEAVIERLOANCONDITIONSSUCHASADDITIONALGUARANTEES,STRICTERSUPERVISIONMEASURES,HIGHERINTERESTRATES,FASTERDEBTAMORTIZATION,RESTRICTIONSINDIVIDENDSANDSTRICTERREQUIREMENTSFORBALANCEDLIQUIDITYINEXTREMECASES,LENDERSCOULDEVENCLAIMTOUNDERTAKETHEPROJECTFALLOFDEMANDTHEDEMANDFORTHEPROD
6、UCTORSERVICEOFFEREDBYABOTPROJECTISNOTGUARANTEEDTHEFUTUREPREFERENCEBYTHEENDUSERSMAYBEADVERSELYAFFECTEDBYSEVERALPARAMETERSTHEECONOMICENVIRONMENTISONEOFTHEMOSTIMPORTANTOFTHEMANINCREASEOFTHEINFLATIONORADEVALUATIONOFTHECURRENCYREDUCETHEPURCHASINGABILITYOFTHEUSERSAND,THEREFORE,DIMINISHDEMANDTHEGUARANTEESP
7、ROVIDEDTHROUGHTHEOFFTAKEAGREEMENTONLYPARTIALLYCOVERTHECONCESSIONAIREIFTHEEXISTINGRATEOFRETURNISRARELYSUFFICIENTTHERISKOFTHEFALLOFTHEPRODUCTSORSERVICESDEMANDISVERYIMPORTANTANDSHOULDBECONFRONTEDADEQUATELYCOMPETITIONRISKPROJECTSDEVELOPEDUNDERTHEBOTSCHEMEAREUSUALLYSERVINGPUBLICNEEDSEITHERINDIVIDUALLYORA
8、SPARTSOFANINFRASTRUCTURENETWORKSATISFYINGSUCHNEEDSENERGY,TRANSPORTATION,COMMUNICATION,ETCISPRIMARILYASTATESRESPONSIBILITY,BUTTHEREAREGREATPOTENTIALOFINVOLVEMENTOFPRIVATEENTERPRISESDEPENDINGONTHEHOSTCOUNTRYSECONOMICSYSTEMASARESULT,EACHMARKET,DEPENDINGUPONDIFFERENTPUBLICNEEDS,MAYBEAMONOPOLY,OLIGOPOLYO
9、RANOPENMARKETTHEFACTTHATBOTPROJECTSAREMAINLYLARGEINFRASTRUCTUREPROJECTSMOSTOFTENRENDERSTHECONCESSIONCOMPANYAPLAYERINANOLIGOPOLYMARKETWITHTHECONSEQUENTADVANTAGESEGLARGERMARKETSHARE,FEWCOMPETITORSANDDISADVANTAGESEGPRICINGPOLICYIMPOSEDBYTHEMARKETANDTOUGHCOMPETITIONHOWEVER,THECASEOFTHECOMPETITIONINANOPE
10、NMARKETISEQUALLYPOSSIBLETHEREFORE,ATTHEPLANNING,BIDDINGANDNEGOTIATIONSTAGE,ITISABSOLUTELYNECESSARYFORTHEPOTENTIALDEVELOPERSTO1IDENTIFYCORRECTLYTHEMARKETSCOMPETITIVECHARACTERISTICSINORDERTODETERMINETHEREVENUESFORTHESERVICES/PRODUCTSOFFEREDINTHEFUTUREAND2PREPAREASOUNDCOMMERCIALPACKAGETHATWILLGUARANTEE
11、VIABILITYANDPROFITABILITYOFTHEPROJECTATHOROUGH,DETAILEDANDFAULTLESSRESEARCHONISSUESSUCHASSTRUCTUREANDSIZEOFTHEMARKET,MARKETSHARES,INTENTIONOFCOMPETITION,COMPETITIVEADVANTAGESCONCERNINGQUALITY,PROMOTION,ETCRESULTSINACOMMERCIALAPPRAISALOFTHEPROJECTTHISAPPRAISALOFFERSASOUNDBASEOFARGUMENTSFORGUARANTEESI
12、NTHENEGOTIATIONSTAGECONCERNING1PROTECTIONFROMCOMPETITIVEPROJECTSINCLUDINGTHOSEINPUBLICOWNERSHIP2LOWRATESOFDEVELOPMENTANDDEFICIENCIESOFTHEPUBLICAUTHORITIESPLANNINGANDFINALLY3THEPROJECTSVIABILITYANDPROFITABILITYONTHECONTRARY,INEFFICIENTESTIMATIONOFTHECOMPETITIONISSUESJEOPARDIZESTHEPROJECTSSUCCESSTAXAT
13、IONRISKTHETAXRATEISALWAYSANIMPORTANTFACTORFORTHEREALIZATIONOFANINVESTMENTTHECONCESSIONAIREISINTERESTEDINRETAININGASTEADYTAXSYSTEMFORTHEWHOLELIFECYCLEOFTHEPROJECTTHATCANBEACHIEVEDTHROUGHSPECIALTAXPROVISIONSTHATREFERTOFOREIGNINVESTMENTSSUCHPROVISIONSARECOMMONINDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIESINORDERTOATTRACTFOREIG
14、NFUNDSTOTHENATIONALECONOMY,ANDTHEYINCLUDEREDUCEDTAXRATESFORCORPORATIONS,TAXSHIELDS,ETCHOWEVER,ASTEADYTAXREGIMEFORAPERIODOFMORETHAN30YEARSISNOTALWAYSFEASIBLEBECAUSETHEREISNOPARTICULARTAXTREATMENTFORCERTAININVESTMENTS,BUTDIFFERENTKINDOFPROVISIONSREFERINGENERALTOFOREIGNFUNDSINVESTEDINAHOSTCOUNTRY,ITISE
15、XPECTEDTHATSUCHPROVISIONSAREAMENDABLEATAXREFORMTHATIMPOSESHEAVIERTAXESFORBOTHCORPORATIONSANDINDIVIDUALSCANAFFECTADVERSELYTHEPROFITABILITYOFTHEPROJECTINCREASESOFTARIFFS,TAXESANDCUSTOMDUTIES,CANCELLATIONOFTAXRELIEVESOREXEMPTIONSANDSIMILARPROVISIONSDIRECTLYREDUCEPROFITSFORTHECONCESSIONCOMPANYONTHEOTHER
16、HAND,AHEAVIERTAXATIONLEADSTOTHEREDUCTIONOFTHECONSUMERSPURCHASINGPOWER,THUSCAUSINGFALLOFDEMANDTHESTRONGERSUCHACONTINGENCYWOULDBE,THEMOREDISCOURAGEMENTFORPOTENTIALINVESTORSITCOULDCAUSEFLUCTUATIONOFTHEINFLATIONRATETHEINFLATIONRATEAFFECTSTHEPROJECTFROMTHECONSTRUCTIONTOTHETRANSFERPHASEANINCREASEOFTHEINFL
17、ATIONCAUSESINCREASEOFPRODUCTIONCOSTSSUPPLIES,WAGES,OPERATIONCOSTS,ETC,WHICHISTRANSFERREDTOTHEPRODUCTSORSERVICESPURCHASEVALUETOCOVERTHELOSESFURTHERMORE,THISAFFECTSNEGATIVELYTHEDEMANDASTHEPURCHASINGPOWEROFTHEENDUSERSISALSOSUFFERINGFROMINCREASESOFINFLATIONRATESTHEREFORE,INCOMEFROMREVENUESCANBESERIOUSLY
18、AFFECTEDANDCAUSESIGNIFICANTDEVIATIONSFROMTHEECONOMICPLANOFTHEPROJECTANOTHERIMPACTOFINFLATIONINCREASEMAYREFERTOTHEREPAYMENTOFTHELOANIFTHISISAGREEDONADIFFERENTCURRENCYTHANTHELOCALONE,THENINCREASEOFTHEINFLATIONANDCONVERTIBILITYWILLCAUSEANUNANTICIPATEDLOSSOFPROFITPROBLEMSMAYALSOARISEBYACONSTANTREDUCTION
19、OFTHEGENERALPRICINGLEVELDEFLATIONTHERISKSCONNECTEDWITHDEFLATIONMAYBEMORESERIOUSTHANTHEONESCONNECTEDWITHINFLATIONTHATISBECAUSETHEREISREDUCEDEFFICIENCYOFTHETRADITIONALECONOMICMEANSTOFACESUCHAPROBLEMAND,THEREFORE,UNCONVENTIONALANDEXTREMELYINTERVENTIONALMEASURESCANBETAKENMOSTOFTENRELATEDTOTHEMONETARYPOL
20、ICYIFSUCHMEASURESPROVEDINEFFICIENT,THEREWOULDBEAWORSENINGOFTHEECONOMICCONDITIONS,WHICHMAINLYAFFECTSTHEPRODUCTIVITYANDEMPLOYMENTSUCHANECONOMICENVIRONMENTUNDERMINESTHEVIABILITYANDPROFITABILITYOFABOTPROJECTCURRENCYRISKSINMOSTCASESFINANCINGOFABOTPROJECTISACHIEVEDWITHFOREIGNINVESTMENTSTHEREFORE,SPECIALCA
21、RESHOULDBETAKENINORDERTOAVOIDCURRENCYRISKSSUCHRISKSCOULDBERELATEDTOTHEEXCHANGERATEKAPILAANDHENDRICKSON,2001ORTHEABILITYTOEXCHANGELOCALCURRENCYTOFOREIGNCURRENCYORTRANSFERITTOFOREIGNBANKACCOUNTSBECAUSETHEREVENUEANDCONSEQUENTLYTHEWHOLEINCOMEWILLBEINLOCALCURRENCY,WHILELOANREPAYMENTSANDMAYBESUPPLIESWILLB
22、EINFOREIGNCURRENCY,ADOWNFALLOFTHEEXCHANGERATESCOULDBEVERYDANGEROUSFORTHEPROJECTEQUALLYDANGEROUSCOULDBEANYOBSTACLESTOCONVERTTHECURRENCYFREELYANDTRANSFERITABROADTHISCONTINGENCYCOULDGENERATELOSSOFPROFITEITHERBYPREVENTINGEXPLOITATIONOFFOREIGNBANKACCOUNTSPRIVILEGESORBYADDITIONALCONVERTIBILITYCOSTSTOLIFTR
23、ESTRICTIONSUNFAVOURABLEINTERNATIONALECONOMYTHEMAINSTAKEHOLDERSINBOTPROJECTSHAVEBUSINESSACTIVITIESTHATARENOTLIMITEDBYGEOGRAPHICALBORDERSINTHECURRENTGLOBALIZEDECONOMICENVIRONMENTWITHTHENATIONALECONOMIESBEINGMOREANDMORELINKEDTOEACHOTHER,ANYBUSINESSATTEMPTISLINKEDANDAFFECTEDBYTHEOVERALLBUSINESSENVIRONME
24、NTANINTERNATIONALECONOMYINRECESSIONCANBEADRAWBACKFORTHESUCCESSOFABOTPROJECTATALLSTAGESOFITSLIFECYCLEUNFAVOURABLEECONOMYOFTHECOUNTRYOFTHEMAINSTAKEHOLDERSTHEECONOMICENVIRONMENTOFTHECOUNTRIESWHEREINTHEMAINSTAKEHOLDERSARELOCATEDANDOPERATEMOSTOFTHEIRBUSINESSMAYBEIMPORTANTFORTHEPROJECTSPROGRESSANECONOMYWI
25、THDEFICIENCIESORLACKOFSTABILITYMAYADVERSELYAFFECTTHESTATUSOFTHEDOMESTICCOMPANIESANDTHEREFOREIMPACTTHEIRCAPABILITIESTOSUCCESSFULLYCARRYONWITHUNDERTAKENPROJECTSHIGHBIDDINGCOSTSBIDDINGCOSTSFORABOTPROJECTMAYBEVERYHIGH,ESPECIALLYIFITISALARGEPROJECTVISITSTOTHEHOSTCOUNTRYBYEXECUTIVESANDRELATEDSTAFF,GATHERI
26、NGOFINFORMATIONREGARDINGCLARIFICATIONSFORTHEBID,LEGALISSUESANDHOSTMARKETSPARAMETERS,COSTSFORADVISERS,DEVELOPMENTOFFEASIBILITYSTUDIESANDDEVELOPMENTOFBIDDOCUMENTSCONSTITUTE,ALONGWITHOTHERS,THEPARAMETERSTHATDEFINETHEBIDDINGEXPENDITURESPOTENTIALDEVELOPERSOFABOTPROJECTSHOULDAVOIDCOSTOVERRUNSATTHISVERYEAR
27、LYSTAGEOFTHEPROCESSWHENTHEPROJECTISNOTEVENYETAWARDEDHIGHDESIGNCOSTSATTHEBIDDINGSTAGE,DESIGNSAREDEVELOPEDTOPROPOSETECHNICALSOLUTIONSFORTHEPROJECTINHANDANDPROVECAPABILITYANDEFFICIENCYOFTHEBIDDERSTOCARRYOUTTHEPROJECTSUCCESSFULLYABIDDERISCOMPETITIVEIFHEPROPOSESINNOVATIVESOLUTIONSTHATFACILITATETHECONSTRU
28、CTIONPROCESS,REDUCECOST,ACCELERATESCHEDULEANDENSURETHEQUALITYOFTHEFINALPRODUCTTHEEFFORTOFTHEDESIGNERSANDOVERALLCOSTOFTHEDESIGNSSHOULDBEPROPERLYTAKENINTOACCOUNTTOAVOIDREDUNDANTEXPENSESATSUCHAVERYEARLYSTAGEOFTHEPROCESSERRORSINFORECASTINGTHEDEMANDASUCCESSFULCOMMERCIALEXPLOITATIONOFABOTPROJECTISVERYSIGN
29、IFICANT,BECAUSEITMAKESTHEWHOLEPROJECTVIABLEANDHOPEFULLYPROFITABLEACCURATEFORECASTSOFTHEFUTUREDEMANDFORTHESERVICEPROVIDEDORPRODUCTPRODUCEDBYTHEBOTPROJECTASSISTTHEACHIEVEMENTVIABILITYANDPROFITABILITYANACCURATEFORECASTOFTHEDEMANDISBASEDONPROPERUSEOFRELIABLEDATATHROUGHTHEAPPROPRIATEFORECASTINGMETHODQUES
30、TIONNAIRESURVEYS,PERFORMANCEOFEXPERIMENTS,CORRELATIONOFECONOMICPARAMETERS,EXPERIENCEANDTHERIGHTINFERENCEPROCESSTHATPRODUCESTRUSTWORTHYRESULTSTHATHELPTHEBIDDERTODECIDEANDSUBMITACOMPETITIVETENDERANYDEFICIENCIESINTHEABOVEPROCESSMISLEADTHEPOTENTIALDEVELOPERSANDDISCOURAGETHEMTOBIDFORTHEPROJECTANEVENWORST
31、SCENARIOISFORABIDDERTOSUBMITATENDERBASEDONFALSEDATAANDTHUSJEOPARDIZEVIABILITYOFTHEPROJECT,ASFUTUREDEMANDWILLBEINCONSISTENTWITHFORECASTSCOMPLEXFINANCIALSTRUCTUREOFBOTPROJECTSTHEFINANCIALSTRUCTUREOFBOTPROJECTSISVERYCOMPLICATED,DUEMAINLYTOTHEGREATNUMBEROFSTAKEHOLDERSINVOLVEDANDFINANCIALAGREEMENTSSIGNED
32、INMOSTCASES,FINANCINGISNOTCOVEREDBYONLYONEORGANIZATIONTHEREISMORETHANONECREDITORANDSPONSORSAREINSUREDINDIVIDUALLYTOSEVERALINSURERSTHISCOMPLEXFINANCIALSTRUCTURE,ALTHOUGHITISDESCRIBEDTHOROUGHLYINTHEAGREEMENTS,CANBEARISKGENERATOR,ESPECIALLYINCASESWHENTHECASHINFLOWSCANNOTSERVEALLREQUIREMENTSORWHENCASHOU
33、TFLOWSEXCEEDORIGINALESTIMATESANDTHESTAKEHOLDERSARENOTWILLINGTOUNDERTAKEEXTRACOSTSFINANCINGRISKFINANCINGOFABOTPROJECTISTHEKEYISSUEFORSUCCESSTHECHALLENGEOFFINANCIALSTRUCTURINGISTOESTABLISHTHEAPPROPRIATECOMBINATIONOFFUNDINGSOURCESTOENSUREASOUNDFINANCIALSTRUCTUREFORTHEPROJECTANDMITIGATEFINANCINGRISKSTHE
34、FINANCIALPLANFORABOTPROJECTMUSTBESOUNDANDFLEXIBLETOCONTINGENCYPLANSTHATSECUREFINANCINGAGAINSTDELAYS,FAILURESTOOBTAINTHEREQUIREDAMOUNTSOFFUNDSORAPPROVALSFORADDITIONALLOANS,ETCUNTILCOMPLETIONOFTHEPROJECTSCONSTRUCTION,FUNDSARERAISEDFROMLOANSBYFINANCIALINSTITUTIONS,EQUITIESANDSPONSORSOWNCAPITALSPRICE,19
35、96LOANSAREGRANTEDBYBANKSEGTHEEUROPEANINVESTMENTBANKOROTHERTYPEOFFINANCIALINSTITUTIONSEGINSURANCECOMPANIES,BROKERS,MUTUALSAVINGBANKS,INVESTMENTTYPEFINANCIALINSTITUTIONS,TRUSTCOMPANIES,ETCPAPADOPOULOS,1993DOMESTICFUNDSAREALSOENCOURAGEDTOPARTICIPATEINTHEFINANCINGSCHEMETOMOTIVATETHEDOMESTICMARKETANDLINK
36、ANINFRASTRUCTUREPROJECTTOTHECOUNTRYSECONOMYDOMESTICFINANCINGALSOPROVIDESAFURTHERINSURANCEFORTHEGOVERNMENTCONCERNINGSUCCESSFULCOMPLETIONOFTHEPROJECTHOWEVER,RAISINGDOMESTICFINANCEISUSUALLYNOTEASYDUETOWEAKNESSESINTHEECONOMIESOFDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIESIMMATURESTOCKMARKETS,LACKOFPRIVATEFUNDS,INSUFFICIENTSTRUC
37、TURE,ETCINTHISCASETHEDOMESTICMARKETISEXCLUDEDFROMTHEPROJECTANDTHEFINANCINGRISKSARELESSDISPERSEDWHENFOREIGNFINANCIALINSTITUTIONSANDSPONSORSUNDERTAKETHEWHOLEPROJECTFINANCING,THEYARERELUCTANTTOPROVIDESUBSTANTIALFUNDSUNLESSTHESEAREHIGHLYSECUREDCONNECTINGFINANCINGWITHTHEPROJECTSPROGRESSISANEXAMPLEHOWEVER
38、,THISUSUALARRANGEMENT,ALTHOUGHITPROTECTSTHEPROJECTSSPONSORS,DOESNOTENSUREFINANCINGBECAUSEANYCOMPLICATIONSINTHECOMPLETIONPROCESSHAVEADIRECTIMPACTONTHEPROJECTSFINANCINGANOTHERIMPORTANTISSUEISTHEAVAILABILITYOFFUNDSTHEABILITYTORAISEFUNDSONTIMEDEPENDSONTHESUCCESSOFTHEOVERALLINVESTMENTSTRATEGYOFEACHSTAKEH
39、OLDERINABOTPROJECTTHEINVESTMENTPORTFOLIOOFEACHSPONSORBEYONDTHEINVOLVEMENTINAPARTICULARBOTPROJECTSHALLINCLUDEBOTHLONGANDSHORTTERMINVESTMENTSTOENSURETIMELYRAISINGOFFUNDSFORTHEPROJECTANYDELAYDIRECTLYAFFECTSTHECONSTRUCTIONSCHEDULEANDGENERATESADDITIONALCOSTSINTHEOPERATIONS/MAINTENANCEPHASE,PARTOFTHEINCOM
40、EEARNEDBYTHEPROJECTSCOMMERCIALEXPLOITATIONISUSEDFORPROJECTFINANCINGAND,THEREFORE,ANONPROFITABLEEXPLOITATIONOFTHEPROJECTDIRECTLYANDNEGATIVELYIMPACTSTHEFINANCIALPLANSOURCEYIANNISXENIDIS,DEMOSANGELDESTHEFINANCIALRISKSINBUILTOPERATETRANSFERPROJECTSCONSTRUCTIONMANAGEMENTANDECONOMICS,20055,P431441译文BOT项目的
41、金融风险在本研究中，金融风险被看作是对财务计划的现金流有消极影响的风险，它在某种程度上可以危及项目的可行性并限制盈利能力。它包括以下几个层次的市场根源风险。1贷款风险特许经营公司资助建设BOT项目所需的贷款有几种类型配合固定或浮动利率的短、长期贷款，还有提供单利或复利的短、长期贷款。受所有必要费用和偿还利率影响的贷款种类和费用以及任何特定贷款制度中的必要具体规定都会影响整个项目的生命周期。对于整体资金计划都适当的贷款比例是由一个函数的许多参数构成，包括要考虑借贷双方的利益冲突、贷款机构和借款人的信誉，以及取得更多贷款或更新现有贷款的能力，还有贷款分期偿还表的安全性。针对所有风险的非保护贷款制度
42、会阻碍潜在放款人进行项目集资，或者迫使他们对投资采取额外的安全措施，从而防止总成本负担过重。特许经营者面临偿还债务的困难还会导致承担的贷款条件加重，如需额外的保证、严格的监督措施、更高的利率、更快的债务摊销、对红利的限制及对平衡流动性更严格的要求。在极端的情况下,债权人可以完全承接这个项目。2需求下降的风险BOT项目提供的产品或服务需求无法得到保证。最终用户的未来偏好可能受到几个参数的不利影响，其中经济环境是至关重要的因素之一。通货膨胀率的增加和货币贬值可以降低用户的购买力,因此就会减少需求。如果现有的回报率基本不够的话，那么承购协议所提供的保证将只是部分的覆盖特许经营者。产品或服务需求下降的
43、风险是非常重要的，应该得到足够重视。3竞争风险BOT框架下的项目通常服务于公众，它需要作为单独或网络基础设施的部分进行项目开发。满足（能源，交通，通讯等）需要是国家的首要责任，但是私营企业参与的巨大潜力依赖于东道国的经济系统。因此，每一个市场取决于不同的公共需要，它可能是一种垄断、寡头垄断或是一个开放的市场。事实上，BOT项目主要是大型基础设施项目，经常给特许权公司在寡头垄断市场中带来随之而来的优势（例如更大的市场份额，少数竞争者）和劣势（例如市场强加的定价政策,激烈的竞争）。然而，在一个开放的市场竞争情况下同样是有可能的。因此,在规划、投标、谈判阶段,这对潜在开发商是绝对必要的（1）正确辨认
44、市场竞争的特点，以确定在未来提供服务和产品的收入；（2）准备完善的商业包装，以保证该项目的可行性和盈利能力。对诸如结构和市场规模，市场份额，竞争意图，有关质量，提升竞争优势等问题深入、细致和完美的研究可以促成一个项目的商业评估。这个评估为保证谈判阶段的顺利提供了良好的基础参数（1）保护免受项目竞争（包括公有制）；（2）发展过程中的低利率和公共部门的规划不足；（3）项目的可行性和盈利能力。相反，低效率的竞争问题可能会危害项目的成功。4税务风险为实现一项投资，税率永远是一个重要的因素。特许公司对项目整个生命周期如何能保持稳定的税制感兴趣。外国投资通过特殊的税收条款可以获得稳定的税制。这种规定在发展
45、中国家很普遍，主要是为吸引外资对国民经济的投入，它们包括对这些公司降低税率和实行税收保护等。然而，超过30年都能适用的稳定税制并不总是可行的。因为对于某些投资没有特定的税收待遇，但不同种类的规定一般只针对在东道国投资的国外资金，而且预计可修正这些规定。对企业和个人征收重税的税收改革，可对项目的盈利能力造成不利的影响。增加关税，税收和顾客责任，或减轻和免除税收，这些类似的规定都能直接降低特许权公司的利润。另一方面，增加税负会导致消费者的购买力减少，从而导致需求下降。这种偶发事件的影响越强，给潜在投资者带来的失望就会越多。5通货膨胀率的波动风险通货膨胀率会对项目从建设阶段到转移阶段一直影响。通货膨
46、胀率的上升会增加生产成本（供应、工资、经营成本等），这些成本又将转移到产品或服务的购买价值上以弥补损失，此外,上涨的通货膨胀率会通过影响最终用户的购买力来影响需求。因此，税收收入能受到严重影响，并造成对项目的经济计划产生重大偏差。另一个由通货膨胀率增加所带来影响可能是指贷款的偿还，如果这是商定好的外国货币，那么通胀的增加和可兑换将导致意想不到的利润损失。一般物价的不断减少也会带来问题（通货紧缩）。与通货紧缩相连的风险也许比通货膨胀更严重。这是因为传统的经济效率减少意味着通货紧缩，因此，可采取非传统措施和非常干预措施（通常是涉及到货币政策）。如果这些措施被证明是无效率的，就会影响生产率并使就业环
47、境恶化。这样的经济环境就会破坏BOT项目的可行性和盈利能力。6货币风险在大多数情况下，BOT项目融资通过外国投资实现。因此,要特别小心谨慎,以避免汇率风险。这种风险可能会涉及到汇率（KAPILA和HENDRICKSON,2001）或本币兑换为外国货币以及转移到外国银行帐户的能力。由于整个收益将以本币表示，而偿还的贷款和物资将可能使用外国货币，所以汇率的急剧下跌将对项目带来很大风险。同样的危险可能会成为货币自由兑换和转移到国外的障碍。这个意外事故可以通过防止外国银行帐户的特权剥削，或是增加额外可兑换的成本限制来避免利润的减少。7不利的国际经济风险BOT项目中的主要利益相关者从事不受地理边界限制的
48、业务活动。在当前全球化经济环境下，各国的经济越来越多的相互联系，任何企业的努力都会受整体的商业环境联系和影响。国际经济衰退可以成为阻碍BOT项目在其生命周期各阶段成功的不利条件。8主要利益相关国家的不利经济因素主要利益相关者所在国家的经济环境以及他们经营的大部分业务可能对该项目的成功至关重要。落后或缺乏稳定的经济可能对国内公司的地位产生不利影响，从而会影响他们成功经营项目的能力。9投标成本高BOT项目的投标成本可能会非常高，尤其对一个大项目而言。行政人员及相关人员访问东道国，收集有关投标的信息，如法律问题和主办方市场的参数，顾问成本，可行性研究发展报告和投标文件等，这些信息将与其他信息一起构成
49、定义投标支出的参数。当项目还未获取特许权时，BOT项目潜在的开发者应该避免在这一过程早期阶段的成本超支。10设计成本高在投标阶段，开发设计方案要提出关于项目的专业解决方法，并证明投标人的能力和效率可以保证该项目开展成功。当投标人提出一个创新方案时，如果他提出的方案有利于施工进度、可降低成本、加快进度并确保最终产品的质量，那么他就是有竞争力的。设计师的工作和设计的整体成本应该得到适当的考虑，以避免在这个过程的早期阶段产生多余的开支。11错误的需求预测BOT项目成功的商业开发是很重要的，因为它能使整个项目可行，并且使盈利有希望实现。对BOT项目提供服务或产品的未来需求进行准确的预测，可有助于项目可行性和盈利能力的实现。一个准确的需求预测是基于合适的预测方法（问卷调查，实验性能，经济参数，相关经验），它通过正确使用可靠的数据而完成，正确的推理过程可产生令人信服的结果，从而帮助该投标人作出决定并递交竞争性的投标。上述过程中的任何缺陷都将误导潜在开发者并阻碍他们投标项目。投标人最坏的情况是提交以虚假数据为基础的投标，从而危及该项目的可行性，使未来的需求与预测不一致。12BOT项目复杂的金融结构BOT项目的财务结构非常复杂，主要是由于涉及的利益相关者众多并且还有大量的金融合同需签署。在大多数情况下，融资不仅包括一个组织，还有多于一个以上的债权人和赞助
