1、本科毕业论文（设计）外文翻译原文OVERINVESTMENTOFFREECASHFLOWINTRODUCTIONTHISPAPEREXAMINESFIRMINVESTINGDECISIONSINTHEPRESENCEOFFREECASHFLOWINTHEORY,FIRMLEVELINVESTMENTSHOULDNOTBERELATEDTOINTERNALLYGENERATEDCASHFLOWSMODIGLIANIANDMILLER,1958HOWEVER,PRIORRESEARCHHASDOCUMENTEDAPOSITIVERELATIONBETWEENINVESTMENTEXPENDITUR
2、EANDCASHFLOWEG,HUBBARD,1998THEREARETWOINTERPRETATIONSFORTHISPOSITIVERELATIONFIRST,THEPOSITIVERELATIONISAMANIFESTATIONOFANAGENCYPROBLEM,WHEREMANAGERSINFIRMSWITHFREECASHFLOWENGAGEINWASTEFULEXPENDITUREEG,JENSEN1986ANDSTUTZ1990WHENMANAGERSOBJECTIVESDIFFERFROMTHOSEOFSHAREHOLDERS,THEPRESENCEOFINTERNALLYGE
3、NERATEDCASHFLOWINEXCESSOFTHATREQUIREDTOMAINTAINEXISTINGASSETSINPLACEANDFINANCENEWPOSITIVENPVPROJECTSCREATESTHEPOTENTIALFORTHOSEFUNDSTOBESQUANDEREDSECOND,THEPOSITIVERELATIONREFLECTSCAPITALMARKETIMPERFECTIONS,WHERECOSTLYEXTERNALFINANCINGCREATESTHEPOTENTIALFORINTERNALLYGENERATEDCASHFLOWSTOEXPANDTHEFEAS
4、IBLEINVESTMENTOPPORTUNITYSETEG,FAZZARI,HUBBARDANDPETERSEN1988ANDHUBBARD,1998THEEMPIRICALANALYSISPROCEEDSINTWOSTAGESFIRST,THEPAPERUSESANACCOUNTINGBASEDFRAMEWORKTOMEASUREBOTHFREECASHFLOWANDOVERINVESTMENTFREECASHFLOWISCASHFLOWBEYONDWHATISNECESSARYTOMAINTAINASSETSINPLACEANDTOFINANCEEXPECTEDNEWINVESTMENT
5、SOVERINVESTMENTISDEFINEDASINVESTMENTEXPENDITUREBEYONDTHATREQUIREDTOMAINTAINASSETSINPLACEANDTOFINANCEEXPECTEDNEWINVESTMENTSINPOSITIVENPVPROJECTSTOMEASUREOVERINVESTMENT,IDECOMPOSETOTALINVESTMENTEXPENDITUREINTOTWOCOMPONENTSIREQUIREDINVESTMENTEXPENDITURETOMAINTAINASSETSINPLACE,ANDIINEWINVESTMENTEXPENDIT
6、UREITHENDECOMPOSENEWINVESTMENTEXPENDITUREINTOOVERINVESTMENTINNEGATIVENPVPROJECTSANDEXPECTEDINVESTMENTEXPENDITURE,WHERETHELATTERVARIESWITHTHEFIRMSGROWTHOPPORTUNITIES,FINANCINGCONSTRAINTS,INDUSTRYAFFILIATIONANDOTHERFACTORSEXPLANATIONSFORAPOSITIVERELATIONBETWEENINVESTMENTEXPENDITUREANDCASHFLOWTHISSECTI
7、ONDESCRIBESINDETAILTHEVARIOUSTHEORIESSUPPORTINGAPOSITIVERELATIONBETWEENINVESTMENTEXPENDITUREANDCASHFLOWANDTHENDEVELOPSMEASURESOFFREECASHFLOWANDOVERINVESTMENTTHATCANBEUSEDTOTESTTHEAGENCYBASEDEXPLANATIONINAWORLDOFPERFECTCAPITALMARKETSTHEREWOULDBENOASSOCIATIONBETWEENFIRMLEVELINVESTINGACTIVITIESANDINTER
8、NALLYGENERATEDCASHFLOWSIFAFIRMNEEDEDADDITIONALCASHTOFINANCEANINVESTMENTACTIVITYITWOULDSIMPLYRAISETHATCASHFROMEXTERNALCAPITALMARKETSIFTHEFIRMHADEXCESSCASHBEYONDTHATNEEDEDTOFUNDAVAILABLEPOSITIVENPVPROJECTSINCLUDINGOPTIONSONFUTUREINVESTMENTITWOULDDISTRIBUTEFREECASHFLOWTOEXTERNALMARKETSFIRMSDONOT,HOWEVE
9、R,OPERATEINSUCHAWORLDTHEREAREAVARIETYOFCAPITALMARKETFRICTIONSTHATIMPEDETHEABILITYOFMANAGEMENTTORAISECASHFROMEXTERNALCAPITALMARKETSINADDITION,THEREARESIGNIFICANTTRANSACTIONCOSTSASSOCIATEDWITHMONITORINGMANAGEMENTTOENSURETHATFREECASHFLOWISINDEEDDISTRIBUTEDTOEXTERNALCAPITALMARKETSINEQUILIBRIUM,THESECAPI
10、TALMARKETFRICTIONSCANSERVEASASUPPORTFORAPOSITIVEASSOCIATIONBETWEENFIRMINVESTINGACTIVITIESANDINTERNALLYGENERATEDCASHFLOWPRIMARYHYPOTHESISASDESCRIBEDINTHEEARLIERSECTION,INAWORLDOFPERFECTCAPITALMARKETSNOFRICTIONSFORRAISINGEXTERNALFINANCE,NOINFORMATIONASYMMETRIESANDASSOCIATEDMORALHAZARDPROBLEMS,NOTAXESE
11、TC,THERESHOULDBENOASSOCIATIONBETWEENFIRMLEVELINVESTMENTANDINTERNALLYGENERATEDCASHFLOWSHOWEVER,WHENITISCOSTLYFOREXTERNALCAPITALPROVIDERSTOMONITORMANAGEMENT,ANDITISCOSTLYFORTHEFIRMTORAISEEXTERNALFINANCE,ANASSOCIATIONISEXPECTEDSPECIFICALLY,THERESHOULDBEAPOSITIVERELATIONBETWEENFIRMLEVELINVESTMENTEXPENDI
12、TUREANDINTERNALLYGENERATEDCASHFLOWSTHISRELATION,HOWEVER,COULDBEDUETOSEVERALFACTORSITCOULDREFLECTMANAGEMENTENGAGINGINADDITIONALINVESTMENTONSELFSERVINGPROJECTSRATHERTHANDISTRIBUTETHECASHTOSHAREHOLDERSSUCHDECISIONSCANINCLUDEIEMPIREBUILDING,IIPERQUISITECONSUMPTION,IIIDIVERSIFYINGACQUISITIONS,ANDIVSUBSID
13、IZINGPOORLYPERFORMINGDIVISIONSUSINGTHECASHGENERATEDFROMSUCCESSFULONESINSTEADOFRETURNINGTHECASHTOSHAREHOLDERSALTERNATIVELY,ITCOULDREFLECTTHEINCREASEDINVESTMENTOPPORTUNITYSETFROMRELATIVELYLESSCOSTLYINTERNALFINANCINGSOURCESUSESOFFREECASHFLOWTHEFOCUSOFTHISPAPERISTHEOVERINVESTMENTOFFREECASHFLOWHOWEVER,OV
14、ERINVESTMENTISBUTONEOFMANYALTERNATEUSESOFFREECASHFLOWUSINGINFORMATIONOBTAINEDFROMTHESTATEMENTOFCASHFLOWS,IAMABLETOALLOCATEFREECASHFLOWFLOWSINTOSIXCATEGORIESTHISISSIMPLYARECHARACTERIZATIONOFTHESTATEMENTOFCASHFLOWS,WHERECASHGENERATEDMUSTEQUALCASHUSEDTHESIXCATEGORIESAREIOVERINVESTMENT,IINETPAYMENTSTOSH
15、AREHOLDERS,EQUITY,INEWIIINETPRINCIPALPAYMENTSTODEBTHOLDERS,DEBT,IVNETCHANGEINFINANCIALASSETS,FINANCIALASSET,VOTHERINVESTMENTSANDVIMISCELLANEOUSCASHFLOWS,OTHERTHISISREPRESENTEDBYTHEFOLLOWINGIDENTITYFCFIEQUITYDEBTFINANCIALASSETOTHERINVESTMENTSOTHERTHEFINALTWOCATEGORIESCONTAINMISCELLANEOUSRECONCILINGIT
16、EMSTHATARENOTIMPORTANTEMPIRICALLYVERYLITTLEVARIATIONINTHESAMPLETHEMAINCONCERNFROMTHEPERSPECTIVEOFSHAREHOLDERSISTHEFIRSTCATEGORY,OVERINVESTMENT,BECAUSETHISIMPOSESSUBSTANTIALAGENCYCOSTSONSHAREHOLDERSHOWEVER,ITISLESSCLEARWHATTHEBESTUSEOFFREECASHFLOWISBEYONDAVOIDINGOVERINVESTMENTPAYMENTSTOSHAREHOLDERSWI
17、LLBEAFFECTEDBYTHETAXSTATUSOFTHEFIRMSINVESTORBASEALLENANDMICHAELY,2003INADDITIONPAYMENTSTOBOTHSHAREHOLDERSANDDEBTHOLDERSWILLIMPACTTHECAPITALSTRUCTUREOFTHEFIRMTOTHEEXTENTTHATMANAGEMENTHASANOPTIMALCAPITALSTRUCTUREINMINDITISNOTCLEARWHATTHEOPTIMALDISTRIBUTIONOFFREECASHFLOWWILLBERETENTIONOFFREECASHFLOWINT
18、HEFORMOFFINANCIALASSETSISALSOANOPTIONAVAILABLETOMANAGEMENTTHEOPTIMALLEVELOFFREECASHFLOWTOBERETAINEDWILLBEAFUNCTIONOFFIRMSPECIFICCHARACTERISTICSSUCHASVARIABILITYOFCASHFLOWANDABILITYTOACCESSEXTERNALCAPITALMARKETSEG,HARFORD,1999FIRMSWITHMOREVOLATILECASHFLOWSWILLWANTTORETAINCASHFORTHEPERIODSWHENCASHFLOW
19、ISLOW,ANDFIRMSWHOFINDITMOREDIFFICULTTORAISEEXTERNALCAPITALWILLDESIRELARGERCASHHOLDINGSEG,OPLERETAL,1999MYPRIMARYFOCUSISONTHEEXTENTOFOVERINVESTMENTANDTHEROLETHATGOVERNANCESTRUCTURESCANPLAYINMITIGATINGOVERINVESTMENTILEAVEDETAILEDEXAMINATIONOFHOWFIRMSUSEFREECASHFLOWOTHERTHANOVERINVESTINGTOFUTURERESEARC
20、HDATAANDSAMPLESELECTIONTHEMAINEMPIRICALTESTSEMPLOYFINANCIALSTATEMENTDATAFROMTHECOMPUSTATANNUALDATABASEINCLUSIVEOFACTIVEANDINACTIVESECURITIESIEXCLUDEFINANCIALINSTITUTIONSFROMMYANALYSISSICCODESBETWEEN6000AND6999BECAUSETHEDEMARCATIONBETWEENOPERATING,INVESTING,ANDFINANCINGACTIVITIESISAMBIGUOUSFORTHESEFI
21、RMSTHESAMPLEPERIODCOVERSTHEFISCALYEARS19882002WITH58,053FIRMYEAROBSERVATIONSINTHEEMPIRICALANALYSISTHATFOLLOWSISCALEALLFINANCIALVARIABLESBYAVERAGETOTALASSETSRESULTSARESIMILARUSINGSALESASANALTERNATIVEDEFLATORTOMINIMIZETHEINFLUENCEOFOUTLIERSIDELETEFIRMSWHERETHEDEFLATEDVALUEOFFREECASHFLOWORANYOFTHEPOTEN
22、TIALUSESOFFREECASHFLOWEXCEEDSONEINABSOLUTEVALUEANALYSISOFINVESTMENTEXPENDITUREANDFREECASHFLOWTABLE1ANALYSISOFINVESTMENTEXPENDITURETHISTABLEEXAMINESTHEPROPERTIESOFINVESTINGCASHFLOWSASAFUNCTIONOFGROWTHOPPORTUNITIESTHESAMPLECOVERS58,053FIRMYEARSWITHAVAILABLEDATAONCOMPUSTATFORTHEPERIOD19882002PANELADESC
23、RIPTIVESTATISTICSFORINVESTMENTEXPENDITUREITTOAL,CPEXTSCQUITONTRDTSALEPETTNEW,TTAL,ITEMNTAC,MEANSTDDEVP1Q1MEDIANQ3P99ITOAL0131013500240043009401800647CAPEX0070008300023004700870406ACQUISTIONS0025007800000050411RD0042008800000470416SALEPPE0006003300000020111IEMANTC0057004800032004800680230W00750134016
24、70001004101190578TABLE1REPORTSDETAILSONINVESTMENTEXPENDITUREANDTHEDETERMINATIONOFFREECASHFLOWTHEAVERAGEFIRMUNDERTAKESINVESTMENTACTIVITYEQUALTO131PERCENTOFITSASSETBASETHEMAJORCOMPONENTOFINVESTMENTISCAPITALEXPENDITURE,FOLLOWEDBYRESEARCHANDDEVELOPMENTEXPENDITUREOFTHETOTALINVESTMENTEXPENDITURE44PERCENTI
25、SSPENTMAINTAININGEXISTINGASSETSINPLACEANDTHEREMAINING56PERCENTISSPENTONNEWINVESTMENTSTABLE2ANALYSISOFFREECASHFLOWANDOVERINVESTMENTTHETABLEEXAMINESTHEPROPERTIESOFFREECASHFLOWANDHOWITRELATESTOOVERINVESTMENTALLVARIABLESARESCALEDBYAVERAGETOTALASSETSTHESAMPLECOVERS58,053FIRMYEARSWITHAVAILABLEDATAONCOMPUS
26、TATFORTHEPERIOD19882002PANELADESCRIPTIVESTATISTICSFORFREECASHFLOWFCTTAIP,TNEW,ISTHEFITTEDVALUEFROMITNEW,T,1VT12CASH1T3ST4AGET15SIZET6REURNOCK1T7ITNEW,INDICATRYRIDIAONSTYMEANSTDDEVP1Q1MEDIANQ3P99CFAIP0038014504450019004201060414INEW0075007600580024005901120325E0011002490050001200300414FCF003601530573
27、0092001200450288PANELBRELATIONBETWEENOVERINVESTMENTANDFREECASHFLOWFCFINEWFCFITNEW,10T2TMODEL12ADJUSTEDR2POOLED0002011101710032FSTATISTICFORTEST408712FAMAMACBETH15YEARS00021540115947017212130037TSTATISTICFROMANNUALCOEFFICIENTESTIMATESFORTEST23512TABLE2PANELAPROVIDESDESCRIPTIVESTATISTICSFORTHEFREECASH
28、FLOWMEASURETHEAVERAGEFIRMINMYSAMPLEHASCASHFLOWFROMASSETSINPLACEEQUALTO38PERCENTOFITSASSETBASEAFTERSUBTRACTINGEXPECTEDINVESTMENTONNEWPROJECTS75PERCENTOFASSETBASEFORTHEAVERAGEFIRM,THEAVERAGEFIRMHASACASHSHORTFALLIE,NEGATIVEFREECASHFLOWEQUALTO36PERCENTOFITSASSETBASE446PERCENTOFSAMPLEFIRMSHAVEPOSITIVEVAL
29、UESOFFREECASHFLOWPANELBOFTABLE2CONTAINSTHEKEYRESULTTHATOVERINVESTMENTISAFUNCTIONOFFREECASHFLOWIRUNTHEFOLLOWINGREGRESSIONFCFITNEW,10T2TFCF0ISEQUALTOFCFFORVALUESOFFCFLESSGREATERTHANZEROANDZEROOTHERWISETHISALLOWSTHERELATIONBETWEENOVERINVESTMENTANDFREECASHFLOWTOBEASYMMETRICINPARTICULAR,ALLOWINGTHESLOPEC
30、OEFFICIENTTOVARYBASEDONTHESIGNOFFREECASHFLOWREVEALSTHATOVERINVESTMENTISCONCENTRATEDINFIRMSWITHPOSITIVEFREECASHFLOWTHEESTIMATEOFIS0111ANDTHEESTIMATEOFIS0171,12SIGNIFICANTLYDIFFERENTATTHE1LEVELPANELBREPORTSBOTHPOOLEDREGRESSIONESTIMATESUSINGROBUSTSTANDARDERRORSASWELLASAVERAGEESTIMATESFROMANNUALREGRESSI
31、ONSOUTOFTHEFIFTEENANNUALREGRESSIONS,THEESTIMATEFORISSTATISTICALLY2GREATERTHANTHEESTIMATEFORINELEVENYEARSWHENFIRMSDONOTHAVEFREECASH1FLOW,IE,FCFITNEW,10T2TMODEL12校正的R2POOLED0002011101710032FSTATISTICFORTEST408712FAMAMACBETH（15YEARS）0002（154）0115（947）0172（1213）0037TSTATISTICFROMANNUALCOEFFICIENTESTIMAT
32、ESFORTEST12235表2中的A组数据提供了自由现金流量测量的描述性统计。在我的样本中，企业平均拥有的到位资金等于其资产基础的38。减去在新项目（总资产的75，对一般企业来说）的预期投资，一般企业现金短缺（即现金流量为负），等于其资产基础的36。446的样本公司的自由现金流量是正值。表2中的B组数据包含了主要的成果，那就是过度投资是自由现金流量的一大功能。我运用下列公式FCFITNEW,10T2TFCF0）等于自由现金流量值小于（大于）0，否则自由现金流量为0。这使得过度投资和现金流量之间的关系是不对称的。特别是，使斜率系数随着基于自由现金流量的迹象而变动，表明过度投资集中在正自由现金流
33、量（即的估计值是0111和的估计值是0171，1水平的显著不同）的企业。B12组数据报告了汇集回归估计（使用稳健的标准误差）和从年度回归而来的平均估计。从15年的回归数据可知，统计上显示有十一年，的估计值比的估21计值大。当企业没有自由现金流量（即FCF0），过度投资的可能性就被减小了，因为此时企业会被迫为其他额外的投资进入外部资本市场筹集资金。资本市场在维持资金管理使用纪律方面扮演了额外的监督角色。表2的回归分析结果支持H1，结果显示，通常自由现金流量为正的企业更可能过度投资，每一美元的自由现金流量也更多地进行过度投资。重要的是要注意这个相对较低的回归规范的解释力。该模型描述了现金流量是过度
34、投资的决定因素，但只能解释过度投资随现金流量变化的32。然而，这种解释力是增量到企业层次投资开支的其他因素的设置中的。所以，合并后的框架能够解释投资支出的很大一部分具有代表性的变化，并且找到过度投资与自由现金流量的显著的关系。虽然不是本文的重点，从表2的回归结果也表明投资不足。为正系数表1明，负现金流量的企业经历较少的过度投资。这种关系与下面的概念是一致的企业遭受经营活动的现金短缺会减少投资活动。但是重要的是要注意，不正常的投资与自由现金流量的关系在自由现金为负（即比小很多）的企业会柔12和些，因为这些企业能够从外部资本市场筹集更多的现金。出处美斯科特A查理森，自由现金流量的过度投资，会计研究评论，第11卷（23），2006（9）159189
