1、 外文翻译 原文 Estimating Consumer Valuation of Earthquake Risk-Evidence from Japanese Housing Markets Material Source: International Real Estate Review Author: Michio Naoi, Kazuto Sumita,Miki Seko It is well known that japan is the most frequent earthquakes in the country because it is located in the str
2、ucture of four. according to opinion survey（ current press, 2002, the earthquake）（ 73.2） considered the most important risk factor. mainly of natural and human disaster and fire （ 66.1） , the flood （ 43.2） and volcanic eruptions （ 15.7） . Because earthquakes are having a risk factor, depend on speci
3、fic location, and their risks should be capitalized for the local housing and land price. the earthquake risk is important, not only because it is a direct measurement to the welfare of the loss, but also because it is necessary to assess the damage. the danger should be divided into two parts ： （ 1
4、） the two possibilities （ 2） place, the property damage. The strength of the probability is pure and had no basis of control and disaster prevention policy tool should be focused on to the utmost reduction in the earthquake damage. the two components are interrelated, which is resistant to quakes po
5、licies may be widely implemented in the area of a higher probability of components, it is these will lead to inaccurate results. For example, if we use of the earthquake risk, probability and we have omitted from the local property analysis, the probability that will be underestimated, because the v
6、ibration on the implementation of policies in this area. therefore, we need to consider all the components used to assess the effectiveness of the vibration policy observation data. In this treatise, we will combine family covers all of the vertical data. the earthquake of information to make some a
7、ssessment of earthquake risk. as previous studies, our contribution is as follows ： First, we clearly made a number of measures for the earthquake risk in those stated above, the probability of earthquakes occur four or damage and the local property as a separate the earthquake risk. Secondly, there
8、 was a smaller area of research and concentrate on, we are using the longitudinal data in our analysis, to enable us to check the effect of the japanese market of housing. the earthquake risk. Third, the research mainly concentrated in the land and leasing market for our data sets which we can learn
9、 in the japanese market wider range of housing. it provides detailed information about the price of rental units and the owners in the monthly rental housing ： , the value of property tax and the landlord will provide for the owners houses. Our empirical results are as follows ：（ 1） the earthquake o
10、ccurred, the probability of a month rent a marked negative impact, （ 2） in the housing market is uncertain, as the market, however, seems to depend on personal characteristics of flats in three (3) estimate how much is a risk（ 4） share of the earthquake resistance of the nearby region is remarkable
11、is the relevant. Despite its importance in disaster prevention policy, and limited land price of the impact studies and the risk of housing. among them, willis and asgary（ 1997） assessment of costs and benefits antiseismic policy to the value assessed. murdoch, taylor and vijverberg （ 1997） earthqua
12、ke disasters in 1997 to introduce changes index as an additional source of pleasure and analysis of the bay of san francisco in the residential property prices and more pleasure function in 1989 that before and after laumas. .Results are significant risk index. the time period of the housing prices,
13、 but their influence there were more of the former, this means that the earthquake risk insurance is an earthquake occurred before. naoi, secco, and in the field （ 2009） , as the same data collection, research after the earthquake, the owner or rent who change their subjective assessment of their di
14、scovery. Some changes after the earthquake risk assessment, a few large structure, and owners may underestimate the earthquake risk in which the first time. brooke hill, and then, and he walked tschirhart in 1985, the risk disclosure map land price. they found that the earthquake risk index are mark
15、ed on the disclosure of the negative impact. Here to translate words into the motive of research, and most closely related. he shows a saito, and the deer （ 2007 /2009） research. but the former focuses on the market, the latter to check the land market. he who （ 2007） research on housing rent the ea
16、rthquake risk of risk index. the shock from the earthquake disasters have adopted a map prepared by the metropolitan government, especially referred to the new building standards law promulgated in 1981. They found that the rents substantially reduce the risk of the contact area with high. in additi
17、on, it is found in 1981 to rent the house before have a discount. this is especially important to note that they took advantage of the listed price, instead of actual payment of rent. Though the use of public housing rent price has many advantages, but it will suffer from the housing market informat
18、ion asymmetry, the seller is better than information in this field of the earthquake resistance of quality, this may cause a risk that the earthquake. a partial . Nakagawa hidenao empirical studies of the earthquake risk of the land prices in the earthquake risk index uses etc. he showed that a high
19、 earthquake risk is low in the areas of land price. the family of the earthquake risk consciousness is directly dependent on the above discussion, the probability that it is also an area near the features. When the earthquake happened in the region, the low housing is will be the damage. municipal h
20、ousing structure, the type is possible to account（ negative） outdoor. these data from the housing and land survey japanese（ the ministry of land and resources and infrastructure and traffic, traffic, land provinces ） the material part of the housing construction and concrete, and the fire, reinforce
21、d concrete and steel framework, in japans house. Generally speaking, the wooden house was believed to be at least, the quality of housing. the area was crowded with a high earthquake risk, for they were not only in the building can easily go, but it will be the main reason for the construction of th
22、e fire. This purpose is to study the relationship between the earthquake risk and rent and the owners of japan for the price. the earthquake risk is a model based on the characteristics of the price to cover all japan longitudinal data. the earthquake risk increases the probability of occurrence of
23、one and the harm can be expected, we have introduced two separate earthquake risk, probability and four earthquake happened in the house, the independence of the measures the earthquake risk, as our analysis. From the pleasure to offer the following empirical evidence ：（ 1） the earthquake occurred t
24、here is a particular probability of the monthly rent of the house, （ 2） market. the self-owned housing leasing market as well, but the effect seems to depend on personal characteristics of housing units （ or residence such as age .（ 3）estimated risk insurance is much larger the old architecture. (4）
25、 share in the vicinity of the earthquake were to the resistance is related to housing. one of the probability of earthquakes happen to a house to rent the negative effect, but not in the housing, partly reflecting the fact, earthquakes and quality far below the rent the house. this shows that rental
26、 housing to strengthen the vibration may be a risk of the compensation mechanism effective policies. In addition, in view of the risk of the old buildings, policy objective is the strengthening of the building of the earthquake may be an effective security for the welfare of the way to reduce the da
27、mage made by the earthquake risk. the results show that the composition of the municipal dwelling place a large（ negative） external to the nearby house. For example, a wooden house in the area of urban renewal projects will not only help the unit will also help to neighbors housing. 译文 估计地震风险评估的消费者
28、-来自日本的房地产市场 资料来源 :国际房地产评论网 作者： 直井道雄， Kazuto 住田，三木塞科 众所周知，日本是世界上地震最频繁 的 国家，因为它位于板块交界处的 4个构造。据防灾意见调查（时事出版社， 2002），地震（ 73.2）被认为是最重要的危险因素 。 其中主要的自然和人类灾难 还有 火灾（ 66.1），洪水（ 43.2），以及火山喷发（ 15.7）。由于地震是一种外生风险因素 ， 依赖于特定位置，其风险溢价应该大写为当地房屋和土地价格。估计地震风险溢价之所以重要，不仅因为它是直接测量到地震的福利损失，而且还因为它是必要的灾害评估。地震危险性应分为两部分：（ 1）外源性 .发
29、生 的可能性 （ 2）地方属性，健全损害地震。由于地震的概率是纯粹的外源性和没有根据的决策者的控制，灾害预防的政策工具应着眼于最大限度地减少地震的损害。由于这两个组件是相互关联的，即抗震政策可能得到广泛的实施该地区具有较高的发生概率，省略这些任组件会导致不正确的结果。例如，如果我们使用的发生由于地震的风险概率指标，而我们从当地省略属 性分析，发生 概率的影响将被低估 ， 因为抗震政策集中在该地区实施 。 因此，我们需要考虑 全部 这些组件评估使用抗震政策的有效性观测数据。 在本论文中，我们将结合家庭覆盖 的 所有纵向数据 。 日本的地震 危险性的信息来估计个别估价地震风险。与以往的研究相比，我
30、们的贡献是如下 ： 首先，我们明确地提出了若干措施 应对 地震风险进如上所述，外源地震发生的概率和损害，放大本地属性作为单独的地震风险的措施。 其次，比起以前小面积 的研究，集中精力，我们使用全国纵向数据在我们的分析，使我们能够检查整个效果日本地震风险市场的住房。 第三，以前 的 研究主要集中在土地和租赁市场，我们的数据集可以让我们学习在日本市场更广泛的住房范围。它提供了详细的价格 信息租住单位和业主自住住房：每月租金，价值评估价值为物业税及业主提供业主自用住房。 我们的实证结果如下：（ 1）地震发生的概率 ， 每月房屋租金有显着的负面影响，（ 2） 自住住房市场是不明确的租金，作为市场， 然
31、而，效果似乎取决于个人的特点住宅单位（ 3）估计风险溢价是多少（ 4）分享的住宅地震中的抗附近地区是 显著 的正相关 。 尽管它的重要性在灾害预防政策，有 且 有限的土地价格的影响研究和地震风险的住房。其中，威利斯和 Asgary（ 1997）评估的成本与效益抗震政策进行了价值评估。默多克，泰勒和 Vijverberg（ 1997 年），介绍地震灾害变异指数定为一个额外的来源，进行分析的享乐旧金山湾地区的住宅价格 在圣和比较享乐函数估计在 1989 年之前和之后洛马普列塔地震。结果表明，危害指数均 显著负相关 。 时间周期的影响对住房价格，但它们的影响期间有更大的震前，这意味着，此次地震风险保
32、险费是高估地震前发生。 直井，塞科，和住田（ 2009），以此作为本文的相同的数据集，调查 地震后 ， 业主或租房者 是否改变他们的主观评估 他们发现 。 有一些修改地震风险评估后，个别大构造事件，而业主最初可能低估地震风险在震前的时期。布鲁克希尔，塞耶， Tschirhart 和舒尔策（ 1985）研究中的影响，加州的危险披露地图土地价格。结果发 现，地震危险指数均显着在披露后的负面影响。这动机的研究， 与 我们最密切相关的是，中川昭一，齐藤和山鹿（ 2007， 2009） 的研究 。而前者 侧重于租赁市场，后者检查对土地市场的影响。 中川秀直等人 （ 2007 年）研究地震对房屋租金的风险
33、利用的影响 .震风险指数从地震灾害所采取的通过地图编制东京都政府，特别提到了新大楼标准法颁布于 1981 年。 他们发现，房屋租金大幅降低地震风险的领域与接触高。 此外，它 发现 1981 年是对房屋租金之前落成更是大幅打折 。 重要的一点要注意 的 是他们利用上市价格，而不是实际支付的租金。虽然使用 上市房屋租赁价格有许多优点，但它会患上住房市场在信息不对称，即卖方具有更好的在本机上的信息比 买方地震抗性质量，这可能导致风险溢价有偏估计地震。中川秀直等人 （ 2009）实证研究地震对风险的影响 土地价格，用同样的地震风险指数使用的是中川等。他们的结果表明，较高的地震风险是肯定在各相关领域较低
34、的土地价格。家庭对地震风险知觉直接依赖于 以 上讨论的发生概率，它也是受居住区附近的特征。一旦发生地震，集中在该地区地震低耐住房是将受到巨大破坏。市级住宅结构的影响 ， 建筑类型是可能的引入帐户（负）外部性。这些数据来自 2003 年 的 房屋和土地调查日本 （国土资源部，基础设施和交通，国土交通省），这使材料部分住房建设与具体木，防火木，钢筋，混凝土框架和钢框在日本的住宅。 一 般而言，木制住宅被认为是地震至少有耐质量。 这些地区 的住房拥挤着会有较高的地震危险，不仅是因为木结构建筑可以很容易崩溃，但也将是这些建筑火灾的主要原因。 本文的目的是研究这个地震风险之间的关系 和出租和业主自用的日
35、本房价。这次地震风险保费乃采用基于特征价格模型对家庭日本纵向覆盖所有数据。由于地震风险加剧双方的发生概率一及其造成的损害可以预料，我们引入了两个独立 的地震风险组成部分 ， 外源地震的发生概率和邻里住宅组成，独立的措施地震风险，成为我们的分析。从享乐回归结果提供以下实证结果：（ 1）地震的发生 概率有显着的负每月房屋租金的影响， （ 2）市场效果，在自有住房没有像清楚 租赁市场，但效果似乎取决于特征 个人住房单位（或居住例如年龄）（ 3）估计风险保险费是多少较大的老建筑 （ 4）分享在附近地区的地震是显着的抗住宅正相关 。 其中有在地震发生的概率证明是一房屋租金的负面影响，但不能在自住房屋价值，部分地反映了事实，地震耐质量远远低于租金房子。这表明，出租房屋的抗震加固的可能是一 地震风险补偿装置有效的政策。 此外，鉴于估计的风险溢价较大的老建筑多，政策的目的是这种增强的建筑物对地震安全性可能是一个有效的 福利的方式，以减轻地震造成的损失的风险。我们 的结果表明，市级住宅的构成发生了一个大的（负）外部对附近的住宅 。 例如，一木制住宅地区的城市重建项目将不仅有助于个人的单位，也 有助于 邻里住房 。
