1、外文文献翻译译文一、外文原文原文RISKMANAGEMENTTHISCHAPTERREVIEWSANDDISCUSSESTHEBASICISSUESANDPRINCIPLESOFRISKMANAGEMENT,INCLUDINGRISKACCEPTABILITYTOLERABILITYRISKREDUCTIONANDTHEALARPPRINCIPLECAUTIONARYANDPRECAUTIONARYPRINCIPLESANDPRESENTSACASESTUDYSHOWINGTHEIMPORTANCEOFTHESEISSUESANDPRINCIPLESINAPRACTICALMANAGEMENT
2、CONTEXTBEFOREWETAKEACLOSERLOOK,LETUSBRIEFLYADDRESSSOMEBASICFEATURESOFRISKMANAGEMENTTHEPURPOSEOFRISKMANAGEMENTISTOENSURETHATADEQUATEMEASURESARETAKENTOPROTECTPEOPLE,THEENVIRONMENT,ANDASSETSFROMPOSSIBLEHARMFULCONSEQUENCESOFTHEACTIVITIESBEINGUNDERTAKEN,ASWELLASTOBALANCEDIFFERENTCONCERNS,INPARTICULARRISK
3、SANDCOSTSRISKMANAGEMENTINCLUDESMEASURESBOTHTOAVOIDTHEHAZARDSANDTOREDUCETHEIRPOTENTIALHARMTRADITIONALLY,ININDUSTRIESSUCHASNUCLEAR,OIL,ANDGAS,RISKMANAGEMENTWASBASEDONAPRESCRIPTIVEREGULATINGREGIME,INWHICHDETAILEDREQUIREMENTSWERESETWITHREGARDTOTHEDESIGNANDOPERATIONOFTHEARRANGEMENTSTHISREGIMEHASGRADUALLY
4、BEENREPLACEDBYAMOREGOALORIENTEDREGIME,PUTTINGEMPHASISONWHATTOACHIEVERATHERTHANONTHEMEANSOFACHIEVINGITRISKMANAGEMENTISANINTEGRALASPECTOFAGOALORIENTEDREGIMEITISACKNOWLEDGEDTHATRISKCANNOTBEELIMINATEDBUTMUSTBEMANAGEDTHEREISNOWADAYSANENORMOUSDRIVEANDENTHUSIASMINVARIOUSINDUSTRIESANDINSOCIETYASAWHOLETOIMPL
5、EMENTRISKMANAGEMENTINORGANIZATIONSTHEREAREHIGHEXPECTATIONSTHATRISKMANAGEMENTISTHEPROPERFRAMEWORKTHROUGHWHICHTOACHIEVEHIGHLEVELSOFPERFORMANCERISKMANAGEMENTINVOLVESACHIEVINGANAPPROPRIATEBALANCEBETWEENREALIZINGOPPORTUNITIESFORGAINANDMINIMIZINGLOSSESITISANINTEGRALPARTOFGOODMANAGEMENTPRACTICEANDANESSENTI
6、ALELEMENTOFGOODCORPORATEGOVERNANCEITISANITERATIVEPROCESSCONSISTINGOFSTEPSTHAT,WHENUNDERTAKENINSEQUENCE,CANLEADTOACONTINUOUSIMPROVEMENTINDECISIONMAKINGANDFACILITATEACONTINUOUSIMPROVEMENTINPERFORMANCETOSUPPORTDECISIONMAKINGREGARDINGDESIGNANDOPERATION,RISKANALYSESARECARRIEDOUTTHEYINCLUDETHEIDENTIFICATI
7、ONOFHAZARDSANDTHREATS,CAUSEANALYSES,CONSEQUENCEANALYSES,ANDRISKDESCRIPTIONSTHERESULTSARETHENEVALUATEDTHETOTALITYOFTHEANALYSESANDTHEEVALUATIONSAREREFERREDTOASRISKASSESSMENTSRISKASSESSMENTISFOLLOWEDBYRISKTREATMENT,WHICHISAPROCESSINVOLVINGTHEDEVELOPMENTANDIMPLEMENTATIONOFMEASURESTOMODIFYTHERISK,INCLUDI
8、NGMEASURESDESIGNEDTOAVOID,REDUCE“OPTIMIZE”,TRANSFER,ORRETAINTHERISKRISKTRANSFERMEANSSHARINGWITHANOTHERPARTYTHEBENEFITORLOSSASSOCIATEDWITHARISKITISTYPICALLYAFFECTEDTHROUGHINSURANCERISKMANAGEMENTCOVERSALLCOORDINATEDACTIVITIESINTHEDIRECTIONANDCONTROLOFANORGANIZATIONWITHREGARDTORISKINMANYENTERPRISES,THE
9、RISKMANAGEMENTTASKSAREDIVIDEDINTOTHREEMAINCATEGORIESSTRATEGICRISK,FINANCIALRISK,ANDOPERATIONALRISKSTRATEGICRISKINCLUDESASPECTSANDFACTORSTHATAREIMPORTANTFORTHEENTERPRISESLONGTERMSTRATEGYANDPLANS,FOREXAMPLEMERGERSANDACQUISITIONS,TECHNOLOGY,COMPETITION,POLITICALCONDITIONS,LEGISLATIONANDREGULATIONS,ANDL
10、ABORMARKETFINANCIALRISKINCLUDESTHEENTERPRISESFINANCIALSITUATION,ANDINCLUDESMARKETRISK,ASSOCIATEDWITHTHECOSTSOFGOODSANDSERVICES,FOREIGNEXCHANGERATESANDSECURITIESSHARES,BONDS,ETCCREDITRISK,ASSOCIATEDWITHADEBTORSFAILURETOMEETITSOBLIGATIONSINACCORDANCEWITHAGREEDTERMSLIQUIDITYRISK,REFLECTINGLACKOFACCESST
11、OCASHTHEDIFFICULTYOFSELLINGANASSETINATIMELYMANNEROPERATIONALRISKISRELATEDTOCONDITIONSAFFECTINGTHENORMALOPERATINGSITUATIONACCIDENTALEVENTS,INCLUDINGFAILURESANDDEFECTS,QUALITYDEVIATIONS,NATURALDISASTERSINTENDEDACTSSABOTAGE,DISGRUNTLEDEMPLOYEES,ETCLOSSOFCOMPETENCE,KEYPERSONNELLEGALCIRCUMSTANCES,ASSOCIA
12、TEDFORINSTANCE,WITHDEFECTIVECONTRACTSANDLIABILITYINSURANCEFORANENTERPRISETOBECOMESUCCESSFULINITSIMPLEMENTATIONOFRISKMANAGEMENT,TOPMANAGEMENTNEEDSTOBEINVOLVED,ANDACTIVITIESMUSTBEPUTINTOEFFECTONMANYLEVELSSOMEIMPORTANTPOINTSTOENSURESUCCESSARETHEESTABLISHMENTOFASTRATEGYFORRISKMANAGEMENT,IE,THEPRINCIPLES
13、OFHOWTHEENTERPRISEDEFINESANDIMPLEMENTSRISKMANAGEMENTSHOULDONESIMPLYFOLLOWTHEREGULATORYREQUIREMENTSMINIMALREQUIREMENTS,ORSHOULDONEBETHE“BESTINTHECLASS”THEESTABLISHMENTOFARISKMANAGEMENTPROCESSFORTHEENTERPRISE,IEFORMALPROCESSESANDROUTINESTHATTHEENTERPRISEISTOFOLLOWTHEESTABLISHMENTOFMANAGEMENTSTRUCTURES
14、,WITHROLESANDRESPONSIBILITIES,SUCHTHATTHERISKANALYSISPROCESSBECOMESINTEGRATEDINTOTHEORGANIZATIONTHEIMPLEMENTATIONOFANALYSESANDSUPPORTSYSTEMS,SUCHASRISKANALYSISTOOLS,RECORDINGSYSTEMSFOROCCURRENCESOFVARIOUSTYPESOFEVENTS,ETCTHECOMMUNICATION,TRAINING,ANDDEVELOPMENTOFARISKMANAGEMENTCULTURE,SOTHATTHECOMPE
15、TENCE,UNDERSTANDING,ANDMOTIVATIONLEVELWITHINTHEORGANIZATIONISENHANCEDGIVENTHEABOVEFUNDAMENTALSOFRISKMANAGEMENT,THENEXTSTEPISTODEVELOPPRINCIPLESANDAMETHODOLOGYTHATCANBEUSEDINPRACTICALDECISIONMAKINGTHISISNOT,HOWEVER,STRAIGHTFORWARDTHEREAREANUMBEROFCHALLENGESANDHEREWEADDRESSSOMEOFTHESEESTABLISHINGANINF
16、ORMATIVERISKPICTUREFORTHEVARIOUSDECISIONALTERNATIVES,USINGTHISRISKPICTUREINADECISIONMAKINGCONTEXTESTABLISHINGANINFORMATIVERISKPICTUREMEANSIDENTIFYINGAPPROPRIATERISKINDICESANDASSESSMENTSOFUNCERTAINTIESUSINGTHERISKPICTUREINADECISIONMAKINGCONTEXTMEANSTHEDEFINITIONANDAPPLICATIONOFRISKACCEPTANCECRITERIA,
17、COSTBENEFITANALYSESANDTHEALARPPRINCIPLE,WHICHSTATESTHATRISKSHOULDBEREDUCEDTOALEVELWHICHISASLOWASISREASONABLYPRACTICABLEITISCOMMONTODEFINEANDDESCRIBERISKSINTERMSOFPROBABILITIESANDEXPECTEDVALUESTHISHAS,HOWEVER,BEENCHALLENGED,SINCETHEPROBABILITIESANDEXPECTEDVALUESCANCAMOUFLAGEUNCERTAINTIESTHEASSIGNEDPR
18、OBABILITIESARECONDITIONALONANUMBEROFASSUMPTIONSANDSUPPOSITIONS,ANDTHEYDEPENDONTHEBACKGROUNDKNOWLEDGEUNCERTAINTIESAREOFTENHIDDENINTHISBACKGROUNDKNOWLEDGE,ANDRESTRICTINGATTENTIONTOTHEASSIGNEDPROBABILITIESCANCAMOUFLAGEFACTORSTHATCOULDPRODUCESURPRISINGOUTCOMESBYJUMPINGDIRECTLYINTOPROBABILITIES,IMPORTANT
19、UNCERTAINTYASPECTSAREEASILYTRUNCATED,ANDPOTENTIALSURPRISESMAYBELEFTUNCONSIDEREDLETUS,ASANEXAMPLE,CONSIDERTHERISKS,SEENTHROUGHTHEEYESOFARISKANALYSTINTHE1970S,ASSOCIATEDWITHFUTUREHEALTHPROBLEMSFORDIVERSWORKINGONOFFSHOREPETROLEUMPROJECTSTHEANALYSTASSIGNSAVALUETOTHEPROBABILITYTHATADIVERWOULDEXPERIENCEHE
20、ALTHPROBLEMSPROPERLYDEFINEDDURINGTHECOMING30YEARSDUETOTHEDIVINGACTIVITIESLETUSASSUMETHATAVALUEOF1WASASSIGNED,ANUMBERBASEDONTHEKNOWLEDGEAVAILABLEATTHATTIMETHEREARENOSTRONGINDICATIONSTHATTHEDIVERSWILLEXPERIENCEHEALTHPROBLEMS,BUTWEKNOWTODAYTHATTHESEPROBABILITIESLEDTOPOORPREDICTIONSMANYDIVERSHAVEEXPERIE
21、NCEDSEVEREHEALTHPROBLEMSAVONANDVINE,2007BYRESTRICTINGRISKTOTHEPROBABILITYASSIGNMENTSALONE,IMPORTANTASPECTSOFUNCERTAINTYANDRISKAREHIDDENTHEREISALACKOFUNDERSTANDINGABOUTTHEUNDERLYINGPHENOMENA,BUTTHEPROBABILITYASSIGNMENTSALONEARENOTABLETOFULLYDESCRIBETHISSTATUSSEVERALRISKPERSPECTIVESANDDEFINITIONSHAVEB
22、EENPROPOSEDINLINEWITHTHISREALIZATIONFOREXAMPLE,AVON2007A,2008ADEFINESRISKASTHETWODIMENSIONALCOMBINATIONOFEVENTS/CONSEQUENCESANDASSOCIATEDUNCERTAINTIESWILLTHEEVENTSOCCUR,WHATTHECONSEQUENCESWILLBEACLOSELYRELATEDPERSPECTIVEISSUGGESTEDBYAVONANDRENAN2008A,WHODEFINERISKASSOCIATEDWITHANACTIVITYASUNCERTAINT
23、YABOUTANDSEVERITYOFTHECONSEQUENCESOFTHEACTIVITY,WHERESEVERITYREFERSTOINTENSITY,SIZE,EXTENSION,SCOPEANDOTHERPOTENTIALMEASURESOFMAGNITUDEWITHRESPECTTOSOMETHINGTHATHUMANSVALUELIVES,THEENVIRONMENT,MONEY,ETCLOSSESANDGAINS,EXPRESSEDFOREXAMPLEINMONETARYTERMSORASTHENUMBEROFFATALITIES,AREWAYSOFDEFININGTHESEV
24、ERITYOFTHECONSEQUENCESSEEALSOAVONANDCHRISTENSEN2005INTHECASEOFLARGEUNCERTAINTIES,RISKASSESSMENTSCANSUPPORTDECISIONMAKING,BUTOTHERPRINCIPLES,MEASURES,ANDINSTRUMENTSAREALSOREQUIRED,SUCHASTHECAUTIONARY/PRECAUTIONARYPRINCIPLESASWELLASROBUSTNESSANDRESILIENCESTRATEGIESANINFORMATIVEDECISIONBASISISNEEDED,BU
25、TITSHOULDBEFARMORENUANCEDTHANCANBEOBTAINEDBYAPROBABILISTICANALYSISALONETHISHASBEENSTRESSEDBYMANYRESEARCHERS,EGAPOSTOLICISM1990ANDAPOSTOLICISMANDLEMON2005QUALITATIVERISKANALYSISQRARESULTSARENEVERTHESOLEBASISFORDECISIONMAKINGSAFETYANDSECURITYRELATEDDECISIONMAKINGISRISKINFORMED,NOTRISKBASEDTHISCONCLUSI
26、ONISNOT,HOWEVER,JUSTIFIEDMERELYBYREFERRINGTOTHENEEDFORADDRESSINGUNCERTAINTIESBEYONDPROBABILITIESANDEXPECTEDVALUESTHEMAINISSUEHEREISTHEFACTTHATRISKSNEEDTOBEBALANCEDWITHOTHERCONCERNSWHENVARIOUSSOLUTIONSANDMEASURESARETOBECOMPAREDANDADECISIONISTOBEMADE,THEANALYSISANDASSESSMENTSTHATHAVEBEENCONDUCTEDPROVI
27、DEABASISFORSUCHADECISIONINMANYCASES,ESTABLISHEDDESIGNPRINCIPLESANDSTANDARDSPROVIDECLEARGUIDANCECOMPLIANCEWITHSUCHPRINCIPLESANDSTANDARDSMUSTBEAMONGTHEFIRSTREFERENCEPOINTSWHENASSESSINGRISKSITISCOMMONTHINKINGTHATRISKMANAGEMENTPROCESSES,ANDESPECIALLYALARPPROCESSES,REQUIREFORMALGUIDELINESORCRITERIAEG,RIS
28、KACCEPTANCECRITERIAANDCOSTEFFECTIVENESSINDICESTOSIMPLIFYTHEDECISIONMAKINGCAREMUSTHOWEVER,BESHOWNWHENUSINGTHISTYPEOFFORMALDECISIONMAKINGCRITERIA,ASTHEYEASILYRESULTINAMECHANIZATIONOFTHEDECISIONMAKINGPROCESSSUCHMECHANIZATIONISUNFORTUNATEBECAUSEDECISIONMAKINGCRITERIABASEDONRISKRELATEDNUMBERSALONEPROBABI
29、LITIESANDEXPECTEDVALUESDONOTCAPTUREALLTHEASPECTSOFRISK,COSTS,ANDBENEFITS,NOMETHODHASAPRECISIONTHATJUSTIFIESAMECHANICALDECISIONBASEDONWHETHERTHERESULTISOVERORBELOWANUMERICALCRITERIONITISAMANAGERIALRESPONSIBILITYTOMAKEDECISIONSUNDERUNCERTAINTY,ANDMANAGEMENTSHOULDBEAWAREOFTHERELEVANTRISKSANDUNCERTAINTI
30、ESAPOSTOLICISMANDLEMON2005ADOPTAPRAGMATICAPPROACHTORISKANALYSISANDRISKMANAGEMENT,ACKNOWLEDGINGTHEDIFFICULTIESOFDETERMININGTHEPROBABILITIESOFANATTACKIDEALLY,THEYWOULDLIKETOIMPLEMENTARISKINFORMEDPROCEDURE,BASEDONEXPECTEDVALUESHOWEVER,SINCESUCHANAPPROACHWOULDREQUIRETHEUSEOFPROBABILITIESTHATHAVENOTBEEN“
31、RIGOROUSLYDERIVED”,THEYSEETHEMSELVESFORCEDTORESORTTOAMOREPRAGMATICAPPROACHTHISISONEPOSSIBLEAPPROACHWHENFACINGPROBLEMSOFLARGEUNCERTAINTIESTHERISKANALYSESSIMPLYDONOTPROVIDEASUFFICIENTLYSOLIDBASISFORTHEDECISIONMAKINGPROCESSWEARGUEALONGTHESAMELINESTHEREISANEEDFORAMANAGEMENTREVIEWANDJUDGMENTPROCESSITISNE
32、CESSARYTOSEEBEYONDTHECOMPUTEDRISKPICTUREINTHEFORMOFTHEPROBABILITIESANDEXPECTEDVALUESTRADITIONALQUANTITATIVERISKANALYSESFAILINTHISRESPECTWEACKNOWLEDGETHENEEDFORANALYZINGRISK,BUTQUESTIONTHEVALUEADDEDBYPERFORMINGTRADITIONALQUANTITATIVERISKANALYSESINTHECASEOFLARGEUNCERTAINTIESTHEARBITRARINESSINTHENUMBER
33、SPRODUCEDCANBESIGNIFICANT,DUETOTHEUNCERTAINTIESINTHEESTIMATESORASARESULTOFTHEUNCERTAINTYASSESSMENTSBEINGSTRONGLYDEPENDENTONTHEANALYSTSITSHOULDBEACKNOWLEDGEDTHATRISKCANNOTBEACCURATELYEXPRESSEDUSINGPROBABILITIESANDEXPECTEDVALUESAQUANTITATIVERISKANALYSISISINMANYCASESBETTERREPLACEDBYAMOREQUALITATIVEAPPR
34、OACH,ASSHOWNINTHEEXAMPLESABOVEANAPPROACHWHICHMAYBEREFERREDTOASASEMIQUANTITATIVEAPPROACHQUANTIFYINGRISKUSINGRISKINDICESSUCHASTHEEXPECTEDNUMBEROFFATALITIESGIVESANIMPRESSIONTHATRISKCANBEEXPRESSEDINAVERYPRECISEWAYHOWEVER,INMOSTCASES,THEARBITRARINESSISLARGEINASEMIQUANTITATIVEAPPROACHTHISISACKNOWLEDGEDBYP
35、ROVIDINGAMORENUANCEDRISKPICTURE,WHICHINCLUDESFACTORSTHATCANCAUSE“SURPRISES”RELATIVETOTHEPROBABILITIESANDTHEEXPECTEDVALUESQUANTIFICATIONOFTENREQUIRESSTRONGSIMPLIFICATIONSANDASSUMPTIONSAND,ASARESULT,IMPORTANTFACTORSCOULDBEIGNOREDORGIVENTOOLITTLEORTOOMUCHWEIGHTINAQUALITATIVEORSEMIQUANTITATIVEANALYSIS,A
36、MORECOMPREHENSIVERISKPICTURECANBEESTABLISHED,TAKINGINTOACCOUNTUNDERLYINGFACTORSINFLUENCINGRISKINCONTRASTTOTHEPREVAILINGUSEOFQUANTITATIVERISKANALYSES,THEPRECISIONLEVELOFTHERISKDESCRIPTIONISINLINEWITHTHEACCURACYOFTHERISKANALYSISTOOLSINADDITION,RISKQUANTIFICATIONISVERYRESOURCEDEMANDINGONENEEDSTOASKWHET
37、HERTHERESOURCESAREUSEDINTHEBESTWAYWECONCLUDETHATINMANYCASESMOREISGAINEDBYOPENINGUPTHEWAYTOABROADER,MOREQUALITATIVEAPPROACH,WHICHALLOWSFORCONSIDERATIONSBEYONDTHEPROBABILITIESANDEXPECTEDVALUESTHETRADITIONALQUANTITATIVERISKASSESSMENTSASSEENFOREXAMPLEINTHENUCLEARANDTHEOILUNCERTAINTYASSESSMENTSDESCRIPTIO
38、NOFTHEBACKGROUNDKNOWLEDGE,INCLUDINGMODELSANDDATAUSEDTHEUNCERTAINTYASSESSMENTSSHOULDNOTBERESTRICTEDTOSTANDARDPROBABILISTICANALYSIS,ASTHISANALYSISCOULDHIDEIMPORTANTUNCERTAINTYFACTORSTHESEARCHFORQUANTITATIVE,EXPLICITAPPROACHESFOREXPRESSINGTHEUNCERTAINTIES,EVENBEYONDTHESUBJECTIVEPROBABILITIES,MAYSEEMTOB
39、EAPOSSIBLEWAYFORWARDHOWEVER,SUCHANAPPROACHISNOTRECOMMENDEDTRYINGTOBEPRECISEANDTOACCURATELYEXPRESSWHATISEXTREMELYUNCERTAINDOESNOTMAKESENSEINSTEADWERECOMMENDAMOREOPENQUALITATIVEAPPROACHTOREVEALSUCHUNCERTAINTIESSOMEMIGHTCONSIDERTHISTOBELESSATTRACTIVEFROMAMETHODOLOGICALANDSCIENTIFICPOINTOFVIEWPERHAPSITI
40、S,BUTITWOULDBEMORESUITEDFORSOLVINGTHEPROBLEMATHAND,WHICHISABOUTTHEANALYSISANDMANAGEMENTOFRISKANDUNCERTAINTIESSOURCETERJEAVEN2010“RISKMANAGEMENT”RISKINTECHNOLOGICALSYSTEMS,OCT,P175198二、翻译文章译文风险管理本章回顾和讨论风险管理的基本问题和原则，包括风险可接受性（耐受性）、风险削减和安全风险管理原则、警示和预防原则，并提出了一个研究案例，说明在实际管理环境中这些问题和原则的重要性。这需要我们的深入研究，在此之前，让
41、我们简单谈谈风险管理的一些基本特征。风险管理的目的是在现时事件产生有害后果时，及时采取适当的措施以确保人类，环境和资产的安全，以及平衡人们的不同关注取向，特别是风险和成本。风险管理包括两种措施，控制危险源和减少潜在的危害。传统上，诸如核能，石油和天然气产业，风险管理主要是依靠规范监管制度来管理的，这项制度对设计和操作的安排提出了系统性的要求。但是渐渐的，这一制度已被一项更加标准化的制度所取代，此制度是强调要取得的成果而不是如何实现这些成果的手段。风险管理是标准化制度的一个组成部分。风险不能消除，只能加以控制改善，这是被人们所公认的。现在有一项具有巨大驱动力和感召力的措施正应运而生，它将不同产业
42、和社会作为一个整体来实施组织风险管理。风险管理是一项适当的措施，人们对于用它来实现高产值有很大的期望。风险管理包括可认识到的实现增益的机会和损失的最小化，并且在它们之间实现适当的平衡。这是一个组织构成良好有效的管理实践的基本要素。这是一个由递进步骤组成的反复的过程，按顺序进行时，能不断提高决策正确性并且促进产值的不断增长。为了支持决策方面的设计和操作，需要进行风险分析。它们包括危害物和威胁识别，成因分析，结果分析和风险描述鉴定，然后评估结果。所有的分析和评估将被作为风险评估。其次是风险评估的处理办法，这是一个过程，涉及开发和实施措施来缓和风险，措施包括避免，减少（“优化”），转移或保留风险。风
43、险转移意味着与另一方共同享有利益或承担由于损失造成的风险。它最典型的是受保险的影响。风险管理涵盖了所有协调活动的方向目标和风险组织。在许多企业中，风险管理的任务分为三大类战略风险，财务风险和经营风险。战略风险包括对于企业的长期战略和计划起重要作用的方面和因素，例如兼并和收购，技术，竞争，政治环境，法律和法规，以及劳工市场。财务风险包括影响企业财务状况的因素，包括市场风险，商品和服务，外汇汇率和证券的相关成本（股票，债权等）；信用风险，与债务人没有按照其约定的有关条款履行义务；流动性风险，反映现金缺乏时，及时出售资产的困难。操作风险是有关条件影响正常工作的情况意外的事件，包括故障和缺陷，质量差，
44、自然灾害；预期行为，破坏，心怀不满的雇员等；丧失竞争力，关键人员；与法律环境下相关的，例如有缺陷合同及责任保险。一个企业要成功实施风险管理，需要高层管理人员参与，活动必须落实在许多层面上。确保成功的要点是一个风险管理战略的确立，例如企业如何定义和实施风险管理的原则。难道仅仅只需遵照监管要求（最低要求），或追求“成为最好的”企业风险管理过程的建立，包括企业贯彻的正式流程和常规。建立管理结构，包括角色和责任分配，这样，风险分析过程和组织融为一体。分析和支持系统的实施，如风险工具分析，执行，记录系统各种类型的事件的发生等。沟通，培训和发展风险管理文化，这样，组织的能力，理解和动机水平得到增强。实施了
45、上述风险管理的基础原则后，下一步是制定可用于实际决策中的原则和方法。然而，这并不是那么简单，还有一系列的挑战，在这里我们列举其中一些为不同的风险选择建立一个丰富的风险信息平台，将其运用到风险决策环境中。这意味着正确认识不确定因素的风险指数和风险评估。在风险决策方面则意味着接受风险的定义和准则，成本效益分析和安全风险管理原则，风险应该降低到实际合理的最低水平。定义和描述关于风险的概率和预期性价值是常见的现象。然而，这受到了挑战，因为概率和预期值的不确定性是隐蔽的。概率的分配都是有条件的基于数量的简单假设和推测，他们依据的是背景知识。不确定性往往是隐藏在这个背景知识后面，注意限制性是由于给定的概率
46、而产生的，这些因素的隐蔽性可能产生令人惊讶的结果。直接考虑到了重要的不确定性因素容易被阻隔的可能性，而潜在的惊喜可能会是你不曾考虑到的。让我们举一个例子，通过20世纪70年代风险分析师分析海上石油项目工作的有关潜水员未来健康的问题来考虑风险。该分析师对潜水员在未来30年中将经历的由于潜水活动而产生的健康问题（正确的定义）分配一个价值概率。让我们假设1的价值被分配，以当时的知识为基础是合适的。没有强烈的迹象表明潜水员会遇到健康问题，但在今天我们知道这些概率导致了较少的预测。许多潜水员们已出现了严重的健康问题（AVON和VINE，2007）。通过限制单独作业风险的概率，不确定性和风险的重要方面被隐
47、藏了。由于对深层次的现象缺乏了解，单独作业的概率不能充分描述这种状态。一些危险的观点和定义已被提出并且已被证实符合这个现实。例如，AVON（2007A，2008A）把风险定义为事件/后果和相关不确定性的二维组合（将发生的事件，后果将是什么）。AVON和RENAN（2008A）建议从一个密切相关的角度将风险定义为有关不确定性活动及其产生的严重后果，其严重性是指强度，大小，扩展，范围和其他潜在的关于人类价值（生活，环境，金钱等）的大小措施。损失和收益，例如以货币形式或死亡人数表述的，是界定后果的严重程度的方法。另见AVON和CHRISTENSEN（2005）。在具有较大不确定性的情况下，风险评估可
48、以支持决策，但其他原则，措施和手段也需要，如警示、预防原则，以及鲁棒性和弹性战略。决策依据的信息是必要的，但应比单独通过概率分析所得到的更加细微化。这一点被许多研究者所强调，如APOSTOLICISM（1990）和APOSTOLICISM与LEMON（2005）定性分析（QRA）的结果永远不是决策的唯一基础。安全和与安全相关的决策是风险告知，而不是基于风险的。这个结论仅仅是通过一些超出预期值的概率的需求来确定的，是不确切的。这里的主要问题是，风险需要与其他关注相平衡。当各种解决方案和措施被进行比较并作出决定时，分析和已进行的评估提供了这样一个决定性的依据，在许多情况下，已有的设计原则和标准提供
49、了明确的指导。这些原则和标准必须成为首批评估风险的参考点。这是常见的思维，风险管理流程，特别是安全风险管理过程，需要正规或标准指导（例如风险，验收标准和成本效益指数），以简化决策。值得注意的是，当使用这种类型的决策标准时要进行陈列，因为它们很容易导致决策过程机械化。这种机械化是不好的，因为决策标准基于风险有关的数字本身（概率和预期值）并不能捕获所有方面的风险，成本和效益。没有方法精确证明机械化结果是否超过或低于标准的基础数值。在不确定性条件下做出决策属于管理责任，管理应该意识到有关的风险和不确定性。APOSTOLICISM和LEMON（2005）采取务实的态度进行风险分析和风险管理，承认确定攻击的概率是困难的。理想的情况下，他们想根据预期值实行风险告知程序，但是，因为这种做法需要将尚未使用的概率“严格推导”，他们被迫采取更务实的态度。当面临很大的不确定性问题时这是一个可行的方法。风险分析根本就没有为决策过程提供一个充分坚实的基础。我们认为沿着同样的思路来考虑，这需要一个管理审查和判断需要的过程。要看到，它超出了在概率和预期值下计算风险图的形式，传统的定量风险分析的失败就在于此。我们认识到风险分析的需要，但问题是在很大的不确定性情况下执行传统的定量风险分析的价值增值。由于预算的不确定性，或作为一种不确定性评估结果被分析师强烈依赖，产能的任意性是显著的。应当承认，风险无法准确表示
