1、原文SHORTRUNADJUSTMENTSINTHEFAMILYSINVESTMENTPORTFOLIOAMERICANFAMILIESHAVEBEENCHANGINGTHEWAYTHEYALLOCATETHEIRINVESTMENTRESOURCESTHESECHANGESHAVERAISEDQUESTIONSCONCERNINGTHETYPESOFINVESTMENTDECISIONSFAMILIESMAKETHEOBJECTIVEOFTHISRESEARCHWASTOGAINABETTERUNDERSTANDINGOFTHETYPESOFINVESTMENTTRADEOFFSHOUSEH
2、OLDSMADEBETWEENFINANCIAL,PHYSICAL,ANDHUMANCAPITALASSETSTHISWASDONEBYESTIMATINGASHORTRUNSTOCKADJUSTMENTMODELOFFAMILYINVESTMENTSUSINGPANELDATAFROMTHEEARLY1970SFROMEXAMININGTHEEMPIRICALRESULTS,ITAPPEAREDTHATDURINGTHISHISTORICALPERIOD,CHOICESABOUTAHUSBANDSHUMANCAPITALINVESTMENTWEREGENERALLYRELATEDTOAHOU
3、SEHOLDSPHYSICALANDFINANCIALASSETACQUISITIONINCONTRAST,CHOICESREGARDINGTHEWIFESHUMANCAPITALINVESTMENTAPPEAREDNOTTOBERELATEDTOANYOFTHEMORETRADITIONALHOUSEHOLDINVESTMENTOPTIONSTHEIMPLICATIONSOFTHISSTUDYFORINCREASINGUNDERSTANDINGOFCURRENTHOUSEHOLDINVESTMENTPATTERNSAREDISCUSSEDINTHECONCLUDINGSECTIONOFTHE
4、PAPERAMODELOFHOUSEHOLDSTOCKADJUSTMENTNOONETODATEHASEXPLICITLYSETOUTTOMODELTHERELATIONSHIPSBETWEENVARIOUSTYPESOFHUMANANDNONHUMANWEALTHINVESTMENTSINTHEHOUSEHOLDVIRTUALLYALLOFTHEINVESTMENTLITERATURETHATCURRENTLYEXISTSCANBEPLACEDINTOTWO,MUTUALLYEXCLUSIVE,CATEGORIESTHOSEPIECESFOCUSINGONHUMANCAPITALACQUIS
5、ITIONANDTHOSEPIECESRELATINGTOPHYSICALANDFMANCIALCAPITALSTOCKADJUSTMENTSSINCETHEEARLYWORKSOFSCHULTZ1962,BECKER1975,ANDBENPORATH1967,MANYEMPIRICALSTUDIESOFHUMANCAPITALINVESTMENTHAVEBEENPUBLISHED,BUTONLYAHANDFULHAVEIMPLICITLYACKNOWLEDGEDTHESIMULTANEITYOFAFAMILYSHUMANCAPITALINVESTMENTCHOICESLE,CHOICESRE
6、GARDINGHOWMUCHTOINVESTINTHEHUSBANDSANDWIFESMARKETSKILLSEVENFEWERHAVERECOGNIZEDTHATFOREACHINDIVIDUALINAHOUSEHOLD,INVESTMENTCANTAKEPLACEINTHEHOMEASWELLASINTHEMARKETJUSTER1985HASBEENTHEONLYONETOMEASUREDIRECTLYTHEAMOUNTOFTIMEFAMILYMEMBERSSPENDINVESTINGINNONMARKETI_E,HOMEPRODUCTIONORIENTEDHUMANCAPITALJUS
7、TERFOUNDTHATYOUNGADULTSSPENTMORETIMEINIMESTMENTTHANTHEOLDANDTHOSEWHOWERENOTEMPLOYEDOUTSIDEOFTHEHOMESPENTMORETIMEINVESTINGINHOMEPRODUCTIONORIENTEDHUMANCAPITALTHANTHOSEWHOWORKEDINTHEMARKETTHESERESULTSARESUPPORTIVEOFTHEBASICHUMANCAPITALMODELBECKER,1975INADDITION,JUSTERDISCOVEREDTHATMALESTENDEDTOINVESTM
8、ORETHANFEMALESINTHEWORK,HOME,ANDPERSONALCATEGORIES,WHEREASWOMENAPPEAREDTOSPENDMORETIMEINVESTINGINCHILDRENANDSOCIALACTIVITIESJUSTER,1985THISINDICATESTHATRATESOFRETURNFORVARIOUSTYPESOFHUMANCAPITALINVESTMENTSMAYDIFFERBYSEXFURTHERMORE,ITAPPEARSLIKEIYTHATTHEPRESENCEOFCHILDRENINFLUENCESTHEMOTHERSTIMEINVES
9、TMENTDECISIONSUNFORTUNATELY,SUCHDESCRIPTIVEINFORMATIONONLYHINTSATTHERELATIONSHIPBETWEENANYPARTICULARTIMEINVESTMENTANDOTHERHOUSEHOLDINVESTMENTOPTIONSDOESAFAMILYBUILDUPITSHOUSINGSTOCKINANTICIPATIONOFABIRTHLE,ARETHESECOMPLEMENTINGINVESTMENTOPTIONSDOSPOUSESWHOINVESTINMARKETSKILLSDOSOATTHEEXPENSEOFHAVING
10、ACHILDE,ARETHESECOMPETINGINVESTMENTOPTIONSFURTHERMORE,WHATARETHEINVESTMENTTIMINGIMPLICATIONSOFVARIOUSSTOCKDISEQUILIBRIUMSINORDERTOADDRESSTHESEISSUESJUSTERSCATEGORIESOFINVESTMENTMUSTBEEXPANDEDTOINCLUDEAFAMILYSMORETRADITIONALINVESTMENTSE,INVESTMENTSINFINANCIALANDPHYSICALCAPITAL,ANDTHISIDEAOFHOUSEHOLDI
11、NVESTMENTCATEGORIESMUSTBEREFORMULATEDINASTOCKADJUSTMENTFASHIONWACHTEL1972ANDMOTLEY1970WERETWOOFTHEFIRSTTODETAILASTOCKADJUSTMENTMODELTHATALLOWEDFOR“CROSSASSETEFFECTS“ININVESTMENTBEHAVIORWACHTERSWORKWASPARTICULARLYINNOVATIVEBECAUSEHEARGUEDTHATTHEALLOCATIONOFINCOMEANDWEALTHWEREMADESIMULTANEOUSLYANDTHER
12、EFORECONSUMPTIONEXPENDITURESMUSTALSOBEINCLUDEDINTHESTOCKADJUSTMENTMODELRESULTSFROMTHERELATEDWORKOFOTHERSBRYANT,1986DUNKELBERGJUSTERTHENATIONALLONGITUDINALSURVEYSNLS,THELONGITUDINALRETIREMENTHISTORYSURVEYLRHS,THESURVEYSOFINCOMEANDPROGRAMPARTICIPATIONSIPP,ANDTHEPANELSTUDYOFINCOMEDYNAMICSPSIDBOTHTHENLS
13、ANDTHELRHSIMPOSEDAGERESTRICTIONSONTHEIRRESPONDENTSTHATWOULDHAVESEVERELYLIMITEDTHEGENERALIZABILITYOFTHISSTUDYSFINDINGSSIPPDOESNOTHAVEANYAGERESTRICTIONS,BUTTHETOTALDURATIONOFEACHSIPPPANELISONLYTWOANDAHALFYEARSAPERIODTHATISMUCHTOOSHORTTOOBSERVETHEKINDSOFSTOCKADJUSTMENTPROCESSESTESTEDINTHISSTUDYFURTHERM
14、ORE,NEITHERTHENLS,THELRHS,NORSIPPCOLLECTEDDETAILEDINFORMATIONONHOUSEHOLDSFINANCIALORPHYSICALASSETSONLYTHEEARLYINTERVIEWINGYEARSOFTHEPSIDHADINFORMATIONONHOUSEHOLDSPHYSICAL,FINANCIAL,ANDHUMANCAPITALHOLDINGSAFTER1972,QUESTIONSONTHEHOUSEHOLDSSTOCKSOFAUTOMOBILESANDBASICCONSUMPTIONEXPENDITURESWEREDROPPEDF
15、ROMTHEPSIDINTERVIEWINSTRUMENTFURTHERMORE,WHENWEIGHTED,THEPSIDSAMPLEISREPRESENTATIVEOFTHEGENERALUNITEDSTATESPOPULATIONTHUS,DESPITETHEIRAGE,THEDATAFROMTHEPSIDWEREUSEDINTHEANALYSESTHATFOLLOWBECAUSETHEYWERETHEONLYDATATHATCOULDBEUSEDTOACCURATELYTESTTHESTOCKADJUSTMENTMODELPROPOSEDINTHEPREVIOUSSECTIONBECAU
16、SETHEFOCUSOFTHISRESEARCHISONTHESTOCKADJUSTMENTRELATIONSHIPSOFTWOADULTFAMILIES,ONLYTHOSEPSIDHOUSEHOLDSINWHICHTHERESPONDENTWASMARRIEDANDTHESPOUSEWASPRESENT,WERESELECTEDFORANALYSISFURTHERMORE,ALLHOUSEHOLDSINWHICHONEORMOREOFTHESPOUSESWASSELFEMPLOYEDORWASRECEIVINGEMPLOYMENTCONDITIONEDTRANSFERPAYMENTSWERE
17、EXCLUDEDFROMTHESAMPLETOAVOIDSIMULTANEITYISSUESEG,HOUSEHOLDSRECEIVINGEMPLOYMENTCONDITIONEDTRANSFERPAYMENTSMAYHAVEMADEJOINTDECISIONSABOUTHUMANINVESTMENTANDPARTICIPATIONINTHETRANSFERPROGRAMTHEEMPIRICALWORKFOCUSEDONTHEPERIODBETWEEN1969AND1972BECAUSETHEQUESTIONSASKEDOFPANELRESPONDENTSINTHOSEYEARSALLOWEDF
18、ORTHEESTIMATIONOFTHEMOSTEXHAUSTIVEPORTFOLIOTHEFINDINGSOFTHISRESEARCHSUGGESTTHATAHOUSEHOLDSINVESTMENTDECISIONSREGARDINGAPARTICULARASSETAREFREQUENTLYINFLUENCEDBYTHEHOUSEHOLDSCURRENTHOLDINGSOFOTHERTYPESOFASSETSINPARTICULAR,THISSTUDYPROVIDESSUBSTANTIALEVIDENCETHATTHEMORETRADITIONALINVESTMENTOPTIONSHOUSI
19、NG,AUTOMOBILES,ANDFINANCIALASSETSALLCOMPETEWITHONEANOTHERFORAHOUSEHOLDSLIMITEDINVESTMENTDOLLARSTHISIMPLIESTHATEMPIRICALWORKTHATFOCUSESONTHEDEMANDFORONEOFTHESETHREEASSETSINISOLATIONMAYSUFFERFROMSERIOUSOMITTEDVARIABLESBIASESTHEFINDINGSOFTHISRESEARCHMUSTBETEMPEREDBYRECOGNITIONOFTHEHISTORICALNATUREOFTHE
20、DATAITWOULDBEINTERESTINGTOESTIMATETHEMODELWITHMORERECENTDATAWHENANDIFSUCHDATABECOMEAVAILABLE,TOMAKECOMPARISONSACROSSTIMETHEEARLY1970SWASATIMEOFTRANSITIONFORMOSTAMERICANHOUSEHOLDSFERTILITYRATESWEREFALLINGANDFEMALELABORFORCEPARTICIPATIONRATESWERERISINGNEVERTHELESS,MANYMARRIEDCOUPLEHOUSEHOLDSMAYHAVESTI
21、LLBELIEVEDTHATINVESTMENTINTHEWIFESMARKETSKILLSWASMORERISKYANDTHUSLESSATTRACTIVEFROMANECONOMICPERSPECTIVETHANOTHERMORETRADITIONALFORMSOFCAPITALINVESTMENTE,HOUSING,FINANCIALASSETS,ANDTHEHUSBANDSMARKETSLDLLSTODAY,THEMAJORITYOFMARRIEDWOMENWORKOUTSIDETHEHOMEANDWHILETHEIRRELATIVEEARNINGSCOMPAREDTOMARRIEDM
22、ENHAVENOTCHANGEDVERYMUCHSINCETHEEARLY1970S,ATTITUDESREGARDINGTHEIMPORTANCEOFWOMENSMARKETEARNINGSARECHANGINGANDTHEIRCOMMITMENTTOMARKETWORKREMAINSQUITEHIGHKAHN,1981MOEN国家纵向调查（免入息审查），纵向退休历史调查（LRHS），收入和参与计划（SIPP的）的调查，和收入动态追踪研究（PSID）。无论是NLS和LRHS强加给他们的，将严重地限制了这项研究的受访者的年龄限制。SIPP的没有年龄限制，但每个SIPP的面板总期限只有两年半的时
23、间里一个时期过于短暂，在这项研究中观察测试股票调整进程的种类。此外，不仅NLS，LRHS，还有SIPP的收集居民金融或实物资产的详细信息。由于本研究着重于两成人的家庭，只有那些PSID家庭中其中被申请人已婚，配偶出席进行分析。此外，所有的家庭在其中一个或更多的配偶是自雇人士或正在接受就业条件转移支付被排除在样本，以避免同时性问题（例如，家庭领取就业条件的转移支付可能已经对人力投资的联合决定和参与转让方案）。实证工作集中在1969年和1972之间的时期，因为受访者要求在最详尽的投资估算允许这些年的期限。本研究结果显示，一个家庭的投资决策对于一个特定的资产往往通过对其他类型的家庭资产目前持有的影响
24、。特别是，这项研究提供了大量的证据表明，更传统的投资选择房屋，汽车和金融资产所有竞争，一个用于家庭投资资金又是有限的。这意味着，实证研究这三个资产之一的需求可能遭受严重的遗漏变量偏差。这项研究的结果必须受到该数据的历史性质的再认识。这将是有趣的模型估计更多的最新数据（这些数据时，如果可用），做了跨越时间的比较。70年代初是一个对大多数美国家庭的过渡时间。生育率下降，女性劳动人口参与率上升。然而，许多家庭可能仍然认为，在妻子的市场技能方面的投资更危险（并从经济角度从而减少吸引力），比其他更传统形式的资本投资（住房，金融资产）。今天，多数已婚妇女去家庭外面去工作，虽然他们的相对收入的工作（相对于已
25、婚男子）多数并没有太大的改变，但是有关妇女的交易收入的重要性的态度正在发生变化，他们致力于市场的工作仍然相当高（卡恩，1981摩恩和史密斯，1986）。已婚妇女高水平的工作责任心可能最终会导致对直接竞争家庭的投资选择看法上有所改变。如果这是真的，那么很可能在更近的数据为基础的库存调整模型估计会表现出妻子的人力资本是该投资组合更加不可或缺的一部分。总之，这里的结果提供了有关家庭的投资决策做出几个有用的见解。特别是，有力的证据提交关于在投资类别家庭决策的相互关系。分析表明，家庭的选择就在住房，汽车，金融资产投资，以及丈夫的人力资本都是相互关联的。这意味着，例如，为研究人员理解为什么一些家庭的住房投资，而其他人不这样做，重要的是让他们超越了传统的解释，如抵押贷款利率和家庭收入。他们还必须研究有关家庭的完整组合“资产负债表”对一个家庭的有关住房的选择决定的影响。只有这样，研究人员能够准确地了解在家庭微观层面，并在经济宏观层次进行家庭投资选择。出处凯瑟琳，家庭投资组合的短期调整,家庭及经济问题，第九卷（3），19888180201
