1、外文文献翻译译文一、外文原文原文SYSTEMICRISKINMODERNFINANCIALSYSTEMSPURPOSEINRECENTYEARS,THEFINANCIALSYSTEMHASBEENCHANGINGRAPIDLYATTHESAMETIME,MACROECONOMICVOLATILITYHASFALLENINDEVELOPEDCOUNTRIESTHEPURPOSEOFTHISPAPERISTOEXAMINEHOWTHESEDEVELOPMENTSMAYHAVEAFFECTEDTHENATUREOFSYSTEMICCRISESTHEPAPERALSOAIMSTODISCUSSHOWC
2、ENTRALBANKSANDOTHERFINANCIALREGULATORSMIGHTRESPONDTOTHESEDEVELOPMENTSWITHACLEARER,MORERIGOROUS,OPERATIONALFRAMEWORKFORTHEIRSYSTEMICFINANCIALSTABILITYWORKFINDINGSTHEMODELSSUGGESTTHATFINANCIALINNOVATIONANDINTEGRATION,COUPLEDWITHGREATERMACROECONOMICSTABILITY,HAVESERVEDTOMAKESYSTEMICCRISESINDEVELOPEDCOU
3、NTRIESLESSLIKELYTHANINTHEPAST,BUTPOTENTIALLYMORESEVEREIMPLEMENTINGAPRACTICALFRAMEWORKFORFINANCIALSTABILITYWORKINRESPONSETOTHISRAISESMANYFORMIDABLECHALLENGESPRACTICALIMPLICATIONSIFINDIVIDUALSARERISKAVERSE,THERECENTCHANGEINTHEPROFILEOFCRISESCOULDLOWERWELFAREANDWOULDSUGGESTTHATPOLICYMAKERSSHOULDPLACEAH
4、IGHERPREMIUMONACTIONSTOMONITORANDMITIGATESYSTEMICRISKTHEANALYSISALSOHIGHLIGHTSTHEIMPORTANCEOFDIFFERENTIATINGTHEPROBABILITYOFRISKSFROMTHEIRPOTENTIALIMPACTINTRODUCTIONSYSTEMICRISKSARETHERISKSOVERANDABOVETHOSENATURALLYPRICEDANDMANAGEDBYFINANCIALINTERMEDIARIESTHEMSELVESTHEYPOSEATHREATTOTHEEFFECTIVEFUNCT
5、IONINGOFTHEFINANCIALSYSTEMASAWHOLEANDTOTHEECONOMYMOREBROADLYASHOGGARTHSHOW,SYSTEMICFINANCIALCRISESHAVEMAJORECONOMICCOSTS,WHICHEXTENDWELLBEYONDTHELOSSESBORNEBYTHESHAREHOLDERSOFFAILINGFINANCIALINSTITUTIONSTHEMAINTENANCEOFFINANCIALSTABILITYIS,THEREFORE,AKEYOBJECTIVEFORCENTRALBANKSANDOTHERFINANCIALREGUL
6、ATORSBUTHOWISTHISROLEEVOLVINGINRECENTYEARS,THEFINANCIALSYSTEMHASBEENCHANGINGRAPIDLYASFINANCIALINTEGRATIONHASTAKENPLACE,TIESBETWEENINSTITUTIONSWHICHCOMPOSETHE“FINANCIALNETWORK”HAVEGROWN,BOTHDOMESTICALLYANDINTERNATIONALLYSOPHISTICATEDFINANCIALPRODUCTS,SUCHASCREDITDEFAULTSWAPS,COLLATERALISEDDEBTOBLIGAT
7、IONS,ANDARANGEOFDERIVATIVEBASEDINSTRUMENTS,HAVEMUSHROOMED,ANDRESALEMARKETSFORCAPITALHAVEDEEPENEDATTHESAMETIME,MACROECONOMICVOLATILITYHASFALLENINDEVELOPEDCOUNTRIESPOLICYMAKERSAREDIVIDEDOVERTHEFUNDAMENTALQUESTIONOFWHETHERTHESEFORCESHAVEMADETHEPUBLICGOODOFSYSTEMICSTABILITYMOREORLESSIMPORTANTSOMEARGUETH
8、ATTHEYHAVEINCREASEDTHERESILIENCEOFTHEFINANCIALSYSTEMANDREDUCEDSYSTEMICRISKBUTTHEREISGROWINGCONCERNTHATWHILETHESEDEVELOPMENTSMAYHAVEHELPEDTOREDUCETHELIKELIHOODOFSYSTEMICCRISES,THEIRIMPACT,SHOULDONEOCCUR,COULDBEONASIGNIFICANTLYLARGERSCALETHANHITHERTOTHEFIRSTPARTOFTHISPAPERREVIEWSSOMETHEORETICALWORKBEI
9、NGCONDUCTEDATTHEBANKOFENGLANDTOEXPLORETHISISSUETHERESULTSFROMTHISWORKSUGGESTTHATFINANCIALINNOVATIONANDINTEGRATION,COUPLEDWITHGREATERMACROECONOMICSTABILITY,HAVEINDEEDSERVEDTOMAKECRISESINDEVELOPEDCOUNTRIESLESSLIKELYTHANINTHEPAST,BUTPOTENTIALLYMORESEVERETHESEFINDINGSINDICATETHATFINANCIALCRISESMAYBEMORE
10、COSTLYTHANWASPREVIOUSLYTHECASETHEYALSOIMPLYTHATWHENASSESSINGTHREATSTOTHEFINANCIALSYSTEM,ITISIMPORTANTTOCONSIDERSEPARATELYTHEPROBABILITYANDIMPACTOFTHECRYSTALLISATIONOFVARIOUSRISKSTHESECONDPARTOFTHISPAPERDISCUSSESHOWCENTRALBANKSCANRESPONDTOTHESECHALLENGESBYDEVELOPINGANDIMPLEMENTINGACLEARER,MORERIGOROU
11、S,OPERATIONALFRAMEWORKFORTHEIRSYSTEMICFINANCIALSTABILITYWORKSYSTEMICCRISESINTHEMODERNFINANCIALSYSTEMGAIDEVELOPATHEORETICALMODELOFSYSTEMICCRISESINWHICHINSTABILITYISASSOCIATEDWITHASSET“FIRESALES”DURINGPERIODSOFSTRESSTHESETUPBUILDSONLORENZONISANALYSISOFLENDINGUNDERENDOGENOUSFINANCIALCONSTRAINTSANDASSET
12、PRICESMOREGENERALLY,ITISRELATEDTOTHELITERATURESTEMMINGFROMKIYOTAKIANDMOORETHATANALYSESHOWFINANCIALFRICTIONSARISINGFROMCONTRACTENFORCEMENTPROBLEMSCANAMPLIFYSHOCKSTOTHEMACROECONOMYTHEMODELCONTAINSTHREETYPESOFAGENTCONSUMERS,INTERMEDIARIESANDFIRMSCONSUMERSAREWELLENDOWEDBUTCANONLYPRODUCEUSINGARELATIVELYU
13、NPRODUCTIVETECHNOLOGYOPERATINGINTHE“TRADITIONAL”SECTOROFTHEECONOMYTHEREFORE,THEYCHANNELFUNDSTHROUGHINTERMEDIARIESTOFIRMSOPERATINGINTHEMOREPRODUCTIVESECTOROFTHEECONOMYINTERMEDIARIESAREBESTVIEWEDASOPERATINGINTHEMODERNFINANCIALSYSTEMTHEYCOULDBEINTERPRETEDASTRADITIONALBANKS,BUTTHEMODELISALSODESIGNEDTOAP
14、PLYTOTHEACTIVITIESOFHEDGEFUNDS,PRIVATEEQUITYFIRMS,ANDOTHERNONBANKFINANCIALINSTITUTIONSTHEYBORROWFROMCONSUMERSANDINVESTINFIRMSFIRMSHAVENOSPECIALROLEINTHESETUPTHEYSIMPLYMANAGEINVESTMENTPROJECTSINEXCHANGEFORANEGLIGIBLEPAYMENTTHISCOULDBEVIEWEDASFOLLOWINGFROMPERFECTCOMPETITIONAMONGSTFIRMSTHISIMPLIESTHATI
15、NTERMEDIARIESEFFECTIVELYHAVECOMPLETECONTROLOVERINVESTMENTPROJECTSTHEASSUMPTIONTHATINTERMEDIARIESHAVEFINANCIALCONTROLOVERFIRMSMAYAPPEARSOMEWHATEXTREMEBUTITEMBEDSSOMEOFTHERECENTDEVELOPMENTSINFINANCIALMARKETSINASIMPLEWAYINPARTICULAR,ASPLANTINETAL2005STRESS,THEGREATERUSEOFSOPHISTICATEDFINANCIALPRODUCTSS
16、UCHASCREDITDERIVATIVES,ANDTHEDEEPENINGOFRESALEMARKETSFORCAPITALHAVEMADEITEASIERFORINTERMEDIARIESTOTRADETHEIRASSETSTHISESPECIALLYAPPLIESTONONTRADITIONALFINANCIALINTERMEDIARIESINTERMEDIARIESBORROWFROMCONSUMERSBYFORMINGSTATECONTINGENTEQUITYTYPECONTRACTSWITHTHEMBUTTHESECONTRACTSARESUBJECTTOLIMITEDCOMMIT
17、MENTANDPOTENTIALDEFAULTTHISFRICTIONIMPOSESFINANCIALCONSTRAINTSONTHECONTRACTSSPECIFICALLY,THEAMOUNTTHATINTERMEDIARIESCANBORROWISRESTRICTEDBYAMAXIMUMLOANTOVALUERATIO,ANDTHEABILITYOFINTERMEDIARIESTOINSUREAGAINSTBADOUTCOMESFORINVESTMENTPROJECTSISLIMITED1THISFRICTIONISFUNDAMENTALTOTHEMODELWITHOUTIT,SYSTE
18、MICFINANCIALCRISESWOULDNEVEROCCURITMEANSTHATIFANADVERSEAGGREGATESHOCKHITSTHEPRODUCTIVESECTOR,INTERMEDIARIESMAYBEFORCEDTOSELLASSETSCAPITALTOTHETRADITIONALSECTOROFTHEECONOMYTOREMAINSOLVENTINTHESPIRITOFSHLEIFERANDVISHNY1992,THISDISTRESSSELLINGCAUSESTHEASSETPRICETOFALL2INTURN,THISCREATESAFEEDBACKTONETWO
19、RTHTHATAFFECTSTHEBALANCESHEETSOFALLINTERMEDIARIES,POTENTIALLYLEADINGTOFURTHERASSETSALESSINCEINTERMEDIARIESDONOTACCOUNTFORTHEEFFECTOFTHEIROWNSALESONASSETPRICES,THEALLOCATIONOFRESOURCESIMPLIEDBYTHEMARKETISINEFFICIENTFORSUFFICIENTLYSEVERESHOCKS,THISEXTERNALITYISCAPABLEOFGENERATINGASYSTEMICFINANCIALCRIS
20、ISTHATMAYBESELFFULFILLINGFROMTHISDISCUSSION,ITISCLEARTHATTHESCALEOFTHESHOCKISAKEYFACTORINDETERMININGWHETHERACRISISOCCURSBUTHOWDOCHANGESINMACROECONOMICVOLATILITYANDFINANCIALINNOVATIONINFLUENCETHELIKELIHOODANDPOTENTIALSCALEOFSYSTEMICCRISESLOWERVOLATILITYISMODELLEDVIAAREDUCTIONINTHEVARIANCEOFSHOCKSHITT
21、INGTHEPRODUCTIVESECTOROFTHEECONOMYASWOULDBEEXPECTED,THISMAKESCRISESLESSLIKELYSINCESEVERESHOCKSOCCURLESSFREQUENTLYHOWEVER,GREATERSTABILITYALSOMAKES“RECESSION”STATESLESSLIKELYTOOCCURASARESULT,CONSUMERSAREMOREWILLINGTOLEND,ALLOWINGINTERMEDIARIESTOINCREASETHEIRBORROWINGANDINITIALINVESTMENTBUTIFACRISISDO
22、ESTHENENSUE,MORECAPITALWILLBESOLDTOTHETRADITIONALSECTOR,THEASSETPRICEWILLBEDRIVENDOWNFURTHER,ANDTHECRISISWILLHAVEAGREATERIMPACTTOWARDSAPRACTICALFRAMEWORKFORFINANCIALSTABILITYTHEANALYTICALRESULTSABOVESUGGESTTHATFINANCIALSYSTEMSINDEVELOPEDCOUNTRIESMAYBEBECOMINGMOREROBUST,YETMOREFRAGILEATTHESAMETIMEFIN
23、ANCIALINNOVATIONANDINTEGRATION,COUPLEDWITHGREATERMACROECONOMICSTABILITY,MAYHAVEREDUCEDTHEPROBABILITYOFSYSTEMICFINANCIALCRISESINRECENTYEARSBUTSHOULDACRISISOCCUR,ITSIMPACTCOULDBEGREATERTHANWASPREVIOUSLYTHECASEIFINDIVIDUALSARERISKAVERSE,THISCHANGEINTHEPROFILEOFCRISESCOULDLOWERWELFAREANDWOULDSUGGESTTHAT
24、POLICYMAKERSSHOULDPLACEAHIGHERPREMIUMONACTIONSTOMONITORANDMITIGATESYSTEMICRISKTHEANALYSISALSOSUGGESTSTHATWHENASSESSINGPOSSIBLETHREATSTOTHEFINANCIALSYSTEM,ITISIMPORTANTTODIFFERENTIATETHEPROBABILITYOFRISKSMATERIALISINGFROMTHEIRPOTENTIALIMPACTSHOULDTHEYMATERIALISEINVIEWOFTHIS,MANYCENTRALBANKSCHARGEDWIT
25、HSUPPORTINGTHESTABILITYOFTHEFINANCIALSYSTEMASAWHOLEAREWORKINGTOWARDSDEVELOPINGANDIMPLEMENTINGACLEARER,MORERIGOROUSOPERATIONALFRAMEWORKFORTHEIRFINANCIALSTABILITYWORKFOREXAMPLE,THEBANKOFENGLANDISPLACINGASTRONGEREMPHASISONQUANTIFYINGTHELIKELIHOODANDPOTENTIALCOSTSOFTHECRYSTALLISATIONOFVARIOUSRISKSTHEAIM
26、ISTOUSETHISINFORMATIONTOHELPPRODUCEANANALYTICALLYROBUSTREGISTEROFTHECURRENTTOPFIVETOTENTHREATSTOTHEUKFINANCIALSYSTEMALONGERTERMAMBITIONISTOPRODUCEASUMMARYMEASUREOFAGGREGATERISKFACINGTHEUKFINANCIALSYSTEMSHOULD,FOREXAMPLE,THEFINANCIALSTABILITYAUTHORITIESBEMOREORLESSCONCERNEDTHANAYEARAGOINCONTRASTTOMON
27、ETARYPOLICY,THEFINANCIALSTABILITYOBJECTIVESOFCENTRALBANKSARELESSWELLDEFINEDTHOUGHTHEDEFINITIONISRATHERNARROWANDCLEARLYHASITSLIMITATIONS,THEBANKOFENGLANDHASTAKENBALANCESHEETLOSSESTOTHEMAJORUKBANKS,ANDTHECONTINUEDHEALTHOFTHECOREUKBANKINGSYSTEMANDFINANCIALINFRASTRUCTUREASANINITIALPOINTOFDEPARTUREFORITS
28、QUANTIFIEDASSESSMENTOFRISKSWHENATTEMPTINGTOGAUGETHERELATIVEIMPORTANCEOFTHESERISKS,THEMEASUREMENTOFTAILEVENTPROBABILITIESISPARTICULARLYPROBLEMATICONEPOSSIBLEWAYFORWARDMAYBETODEFINEASPECIFICSTRESSEVENTOFACERTAINIMPACT,SUCHASONECAUSINGTHEMAJORBANKSTOLOSEHALFTHEIRTIER1CAPITALOVERTHENEXTTHREEYEARSTHISCOU
29、LDTHENBEUSEDASANORMALISATIONDEVICELEAVINGASIDETHEPROBLEMOFDEFININGTHEOBJECTIVEFUNCTION,HOWCANCENTRALBANKSIMPLEMENTACLEARFRAMEWORKFORIDENTIFYINGTHREATSANDFORMEASURINGTHEIRPOTENTIALIMPACTONEFAIRLYOBVIOUS,BUTNOTCOMPLETELYTRIVIAL,POINTISTHATTHEREISAMYRIADRANGEOFPOTENTIALSHOCKSTHATCOULDAFFECTFINANCIALSYS
30、TEMSTRYINGTOIDENTIFY,ASSESSANDRANKALLOFTHESEWOULDBEAVERYDIFFICULTTASKAPOTENTIALLYMOREPRODUCTIVEANDPRACTICALAPPROACHISTOIDENTIFYAREASOFMAJORWEAKNESSORVULNERABILITYINFINANCIALSYSTEMS,FOREXAMPLE,WHEREASSETPRICEVALUATIONSAPPEARSTRETCHEDOROUTSIDEHISTORICALNORMS,ORWHERETHEREARECONCENTRATIONSOFCREDITORMARK
31、ETEXPOSURE,ORWHEREFINANCIALBALANCESHEETSARECOMINGUNDERSTRAINCANDIDATESFORTHELISTOFSYSTEMICRISKSCOULDTHUSBEMOREACCURATELYDESCRIBEDAS“SYSTEMICVULNERABILITIES”,WHICHCOULD,INTURN,BETRIGGEREDBYPARTICULARECONOMICORFINANCIALSHOCKSINTHEUK,FOREACHPOTENTIALSYSTEMICVULNERABILITY,THEBANKOFENGLANDTRIESTOGAUGETHE
32、PROBABILITYTHATTHEYWILLCRYSTALLISEIN“MODERATE”AND“SEVERE”WAYSSUCHESTIMATES,HOWEVER,REMAINSUBJECTTOWIDEMARGINSOFUNCERTAINTYANDMAYNOTFULLYCAPTURENONLINEAREFFECTS,WHICHMAYBEESPECIALLYRELEVANTINEXTREMESCENARIOSINPARTICULAR,THEYDONOTACCOUNTFORPOTENTIALIMPORTANTFEEDBACKSTHROUGHASSETMARKETSORTHEPOSSIBLEEFF
33、ECTSOFDISRUPTIONTOTHELIQUIDITYOFMARKETSBUILDINGANEMPIRICALSTRESSTESTINGMODELTOINCORPORATETHESEEFFECTSANDTOCAPTURETHEIMPACTOFFINANCIALINNOVATIONREMAINSADIFFICULTCHALLENGEITISALSOCLEARTHATCENTRALBANKSNEEDTOIMPROVETHEIRUNDERSTANDINGOFHOWFINANCIALSYSTEMSFITTOGETHERASNETWORKSBUILDINGONTHETHEORETICALWORKD
34、ISCUSSEDABOVEANDONEMPIRICALWORKCONDUCTEDBYOESTERREICHISCHENATIONALBANKONTHEAUSTRIANINTERBANKMARKET,THEBANKOFENGLANDISCURRENTLYDEVELOPINGANEMPIRICALMODELOFTHEUKFINANCIALNETWORKHOWEVER,DATALIMITATIONSCANBEAMAJORDIFFICULTYINCONSTRUCTINGSUCHAREALWORLDMODEL,WITHTHEFREQUENCYANDAMOUNTOFINFORMATIONAVAILABLE
35、ONBILATERALINTERBANKEXPOSURESDEPENDINGONCOUNTRYSPECIFICREPORTINGREQUIREMENTSFURTHER,FINANCIALINNOVATIONANDASSETMARKETLINKAGESMAYMEANTHAT“CONNECTIVITY”ISMORECOMPLEXTHANIMPLIEDBYDIRECTINTERBANKEXPOSURESALONERISKTRANSFERINSTRUMENTS,FOREXAMPLE,MAYMAKEITHARDERTODEFINE“LINKS”ADDRESSINGTHISISCLEARLYANOTHER
36、CHALLENGEFORQUANTIFICATIONDESPITETHEIMPERFECTIONSOFTHECURRENTANALYTICALTOOLKIT,THEREARECLEARBENEFITSFORPOLICYMAKERSFROMDEVELOPINGAMOREQUANTITATIVEBASISFORADDRESSINGFINANCIALSTABILITYISSUESAFIRSTBENEFITISINTERMSOFSHARPENINGTHERIGOURANDDISCIPLINEOFTHERISKASSESSMENTWORKUNDERTAKENBYCENTRALBANKS,FORCINGT
37、HEMTOBECLEARABOUTWHATISKNOWNANDWHATISNOT,ANDHELPINGTHEMTOCONCENTRATERESOURCESANDATTENTIONONWHATAREJUDGEDTOBETHEMOSTIMPORTANTISSUESANIMPORTANTOBJECTIVEFORCENTRALBANKSSHOULDBETOPROVIDECLEARERMESSAGESTOFINANCIALMARKETPARTICIPANTSANDOTHERAUTHORITIESONWHYSOMETHREATSAREJUDGEDASIMPORTANTANDOTHERSASNOTTHISS
38、HOULDRAISETHEVALUEADDEDOFRISKASSESSMENTWORKTHESECONDBENEFITISINDELIVERINGIMPROVEDRISKREDUCTIONANDCRISISMANAGEMENTACLEARERANALYSISOFHOWRISKSPROPAGATETHROUGHTHEFINANCIALSYSTEM,ANDWHICHTHREATSAREPERCEIVEDASTHEMOSTCOSTLY,SHOULDHELPINTHEPRIORITISATIONANDDESIGNOFRISKMITIGANTS,ANDINTHEFORMULATIONANDTESTING
39、OFFINANCIALCRISISMANAGEMENTPREPARATIONSENSURINGAPPROPRIATEFOLLOWUPACTIONSTOADDRESSMAJORVULNERABILITIESISANIMPORTANTSTEPINOPERATIONALISINGFINANCIALSTABILITYWORKINTHATCONTEXT,ANALYSINGANDDESIGNINGRISKMITIGANTSTOLIMITSYSTEMICFINANCIALRISKSREMAINSANOTHERUNDERDEVELOPEDAREAATPRESENT,REGULATORYREQUIREMENTS
40、ARETYPICALLYCALIBRATEDTOMEASURESOFIDIOSYNCRATICRISKININDIVIDUALINSTITUTIONSHOWEVER,ANIMPROVEDANALYTICALFRAMEWORKFORFINANCIALSTABILITYCOULDBEUSEDTOQUANTIFYANINSTITUTIONSMARGINALCONTRIBUTIONTOSYSTEMICRISKSOURCEPRASANNAGAI,NIGELJENKINSON,SUJITKAPADIA,2007“SYSTEMICRISKINMODERNFINANCIALSYSTEMS”JOURNALOFR
41、ISKFINANCEFEBRUARYPP156165二、翻译文章译文在现代金融体制中的系统性风险目的由于近年来金融系统的变化飞快迅猛。与此同时，在发达国家出现了宏观经济的波动下降的现象。本文写作目的是分析这些发展现象对系统性金融危机的性质可能造成的影响。本文还旨在讨论中央银行及其他金融监管机构为了他们的系统性金融的稳定工作，对这些发展现象会如何作出一个更明确的，更严格的以及可操作的业务框架的响应。发现本文模型表明金融的创新与整合将更多地同宏观经济的稳定性相结合，这也促使在发达国家发生的系统性金融危机不太可能像过去一样，但是可能会更严重猛烈。为了应对这些日益凸显的艰巨挑战，我们可以实施一种切实可
42、行的经济框架。现实意义如果个人是风险规避的，那么，金融危机所反映的的最新变化如它可以导致社会福利的降低以及会暗示决策者应采取上调津贴界限的行动，以此来监测和减轻系统性风险。这些分析还强调了从他们的潜在影响中得出风险概率的重要性。简介系统性风险是超出了由金融中介机构自身对风险的估值及管理。他们对整个金融系统的有效运作以及对经济构成更广泛的威胁。正如拉森指出系统性的金融危机会造成重大的经济代价，这代价远远超出了失败的金融机构的股东们所承担的损失。因此，对于各国中央银行和其他金融监管机构的主要目标是维护金融稳定。但是，这种现象是如何发展近年来，金融系统变化迅猛。随着金融一体化发展，在国内以及国际的各
43、金融机构之间已形成了“金融网络”。高级的金融合作成果迅速产生（如信用违约互换，债务抵押债券，以及衍生的一系列手段），还有为了资本融合度加深而产生的零售市场。与此同时，在发达国家中，宏观经济的波动有所下降。决策者们分歧在于这些金融系统是否对重要公共利益的稳定作出了或多或少的的作用。一些人认为，它们已经增加了金融体系抗风险能力，降低系统性。但是,人们越来越担心,虽然这些发展可能有助于减少系统性危机,但一旦发生，它可能影响更大的规模。本文为了探讨这个问题而在第一部分回顾了一些在英格兰银行的理论性工作。从这项工作的结果表明，金融的创新与整合将更多地同宏观经济的稳定性相结合，确实促使了在发达国家发生的金
44、融危机不太可能像过去一样，但是可能会更严重猛烈。这些结果表明，现在的金融危机可能会使社会付出比以前更沉重的经济代价。他们还暗示，在评估金融体系的威胁时，重要的是要分别考虑各种风险的可能性和它们合力所能造成的影响。本文的第二部分将讨论中央银行为了他们的系统金融的稳定工作，如何通过发展和制定出一个更明确的，更严格的以及可操作的业务框架来应对这些挑战。在现代金融系统中的系统性危机盖尔等人制定了一种描述在经济压力期间，关于系统性危机的不稳定性与资产“火爆销售”相联系的理论模型。卢刃尼分析了在内在金融限制和资产价格下的借贷问题，而盖尔的理论模型正是在卢刃尼的分析基础上建立的。更一般地说，盖尔的理论模型的
45、建立也与克尤特克和莫咯的著作有关，他们在著作中分析了由执行合同问题而造成的财政摩擦是如何放大到对宏观经济的冲击。该模型包含三种类型的代理消费者，中介机构和企业。消费者拥有良好的天赋，但只能在“传统”的经济部门中生产使用相对没有收益的工艺操作。因此，他们通过中介来与企业进行资金协商，以便能在更富有生产性的经济部门工作。中介机构在现代金融体系中运作中的作用是最被看好的他们可以是传统银行，但是该模型也设计成可以适用于对冲基金，私人股本公司和其他非银行金融机构的运作。他们借消费者的资金来投资到公司中。企业在这个资金运作中没有扮演特殊的角色。他们只是管理一个小额交易的外汇投资项目这可以被视为是从完全竞争
46、性的企业之间竞争的结果。这意味着，中介机构实际上是完全控制着投资项目。假设中介机构对公司拥有财务控制权，那么可能会出现些极端情况。但是，它用一个简单的方法在金融市场中嵌入了最新的一些发展。尤其正如PLANTIN等人所强调的，越大量使用如信用衍生品高级金融产品，以及零售市场的深化，使得中介机构更能容易进行资产的交易。这尤其适用于非传统的金融中介机构。中介机构通过与消费者签订国有先遣队股权类的合同来向消费者借钱。但是，这些合同会受到承诺限制和潜在不履行的影响。这种摩擦冲突将金融财政性限制加于合同中具体而言，中介机构可以借的数值通过最高贷款与估值比率来限制，以及对中介机构阻止投资项目出现不利后果的能
47、力的限制。这种摩擦冲突对于这模型来说是最根本的如果没有它，系统性的金融危机就不会发生。这意味着，如果一个不利的总冲击来冲击富有生产性的部门，中介机构可能会被迫出售资产（资本）给传统的经济部门，以保持它的偿付能力。根据斯卢夫和珊妮的思想，他们认为这种不幸造成了资产价格销售下降。反过来，这也会产生对影响所有中介机构的资产负债表的净值的一个反馈，这也可能导致进一步的资产出售。由于中介机构不考虑自己的销售对资产价格的影响，且由市场对资源隐性配置效率低下。对于足够的猛烈冲击，这种外部因素是能够产生一个可能自我实现的系统性金融危机。从这次讨论中，我们可以明显的知道，冲击的规模是决定是否出现危机的关键因素。
48、但是，如何改变在宏观经济波动和金融创新的影响下，系统性危机发生的可能性和潜在规模较低的波动性是通过各种冲击经济生产性部门冲击量的减少来模拟的。正如所料，这使得产生危机的可能性较小，因为发生严重冲击的频率较低。然而，更强的稳定性也使得“经济衰退”的国家不太可能发生系统性经济危机。因此，消费者更愿意放贷，使中介机构增加他们的借贷和初始投资。但是，如果危机真的随之而来的话，将会有更多的资本出售给传统的经济部门，资产价格将进一步下跌，那时，危机将产生更大的影响。建立一个切实可行的框架促使金融稳定上述分析结果表明，发达国家的金融系统可能会变得更强大，但同时，也有可能会更脆弱。金融的创新与整合将更多地同宏
49、观经济的稳定性相结合，这将有可能降低在近几年发生系统性金融危机的可能性。但是，一旦危机发生，其影响可能大于以前的情况。如果个人是风险规避的，那么，金融危机将导致一些变化如它可以导致社会福利的降低以及会暗示决策者应采取上调津贴界限的行动，以此来监测和减轻系统性风险。该分析还表明，在评估可能威胁到金融体系时，重要的是要从他们潜在的影响中区分出物化的风险概率。鉴于此，许多中央银行支持金融体系整体的稳定，并为此制定和实施一个更明确，更严格的，可操作性的业务框架。例如，英格兰银行更重视量化各种风险合力的可能性和潜在成本。其目的是利用这些信息，对目前英国金融系统中前五分之十的威胁，产生稳健解析登记。针对英国金融体系所面临的总风险，其较长期的目标是想出一个综合措施来应对此风险。例如，专家权威对稳定金融市场的关注度相比于去年是增高还是降低了呢与货币政策相比，中央银行的金融稳定目标并不太容易定义。虽然这个定义是比较狭窄，且有其局限性。但是，英格兰银行的资产负债表的损失比英国的主要银行都少，并且继续维持了重要的英国银行系统的良好工作，将金融基础设施作为初始点变更来进行风险的量化评估。当试图评估这些风险的相对重要性，以及尾部概率事件的测量时，这些就是显著问题了。一种可能的解决方法是对一个有确定影响力得事件定义一个特定的压力。比如，可以导致各大银行在未来三年中，损失一半第一级资本。这方法可以之后被用
