1、 外文翻译 原文 Foreign Trade and Its Effects on Nepalese Economic Development Material Source: The Journal of Nepalese Business Studies Vol. II No.1 Dec.2005 Author: Om Sharma Rajendra Bhandari Foreign trade is considered as an essential factor for accelerating the path of economic development. Most count
2、ries are involved into foreign trade to create employment, raise propensity to save, increase foreign exchange earning, and raise the productivity of investment moving from less productive use to high productive use(Hussain,1996).Because of the benefits of openness, it is settled as the integral par
3、t of every country. For developing countries, trade is the primary vehicle for realizing the benefits of globalization. Import brings additional competition and variety of domestic markets benefiting the consumers. Benefiting business, foreign trade gives firms access to improved capital inputs such
4、 as machine, tools, boosting productivity as well. Foreign trade encourages the redistribution of labor and capital to relatively more productive sectors. In particular, it has contributed to the ongoing shift of some manufacturing and service activities from industrial to developing countries provi
5、ding new opportunities for growth (WDR 1999/2000). World Development Report(1999/2000)highlights that the trade of goods and services has grown twice as fast as global GDP in the 1990s and the share attributable to developing countries has climbed from 23 to 29 percent. The explosive growth of infor
6、mation and communication technology by 25 percent between the period 1994-1997 alone has offered another opportunity for developing countries. Nepal, a developing country, has profound potential on information technology, which may solve the problem of landlockedness and trade and tariff barrier. Th
7、e opportunities on garments, carpets and other agriculture and service related productions and good access to herbal production and Ayurvedic medicines can not be overlooked. Nepalese foreign trade performance has so far been poor. Several factors seem to be responsible, and of these, its landlocked
8、ness is one of the major causes for Nepals weak production base, which is eventually linked with the growth of exports and imports of technology and raw material. Not only the open border with India but also the limited transit facilities in one or other way have constrained its trade with overseas
9、countries. Since transit through china is virtually impractical, India is only economically viable for all commercial flows. Indeed, no country in the world (excluding Bhutan) is so hopeless dependent on the availability of transit facilities from a single country as Nepal(Poudyal 1998).Historically
10、, it is evidenced from almost all trade and transit treaties between these two countries that the transit facilities had in the past always been provided by India in exchange for Nepals acceptance in giving incentives to Indian goods in Nepalese territories. For this reason, Nepals trade, especially
11、 import trade, in the past virtually had confined to India. Naturally, in such a situation, neither foreign trade nor the economy can be expected to have speedy growth. Foreign trade has however, been rendered due weight in all the periodic plans because of the adverse balance of payment (BOP) posit
12、ion. Realizing that the composition of exports be changed by identifying new exportable, the Ninth Periodic Plan too(1997/98-2001/02) discouraged the import of luxury goods and called for an adequate supply of necessities at reasonable prices. The huge stress has been placed on industrialization thr
13、ough export promotion and import substitution. Nepal, an agro-based economy, has more than 80 per cent of its people engaged on agriculture profession and the contribution of the agriculture sector to the tota l GDP constitutes more than 40 per cent(CBS 1999).Since Nepal is least developed in indust
14、rial raw materials and highly equipped machinery, there is minimum chance of cost-effectiveness. Small domestic market seems to be an obstacle to economic growth. The world market is then the only readily available way to exploit resources. The basic problem which arises in managing the world market
15、 is environment including different national policies, business customs and practices along with different political and legal formalities and practices, different monetary units, different levels of technology, different cultural and social practices(Shrestha 1994).Therefore, quite different from t
16、hat of the United States, Japan and European markets, the plan and programs that Nepal prepares, may be ineffective to cope with the different levels of uncertainly encountered in foreign market. Habeler concludes that international trade has made a tremendous contribution to the development of less
17、 developed countries in the 19th and 20th centuries and can be expected to make an equally big contribution in the future (Habeler, 1959). Counted in a least developed country of the world, Nepal is bounded on the vicious circle of poverty because lumpy amount of people insist in the agricultural pr
18、ofessional where the marginal productivity of labor is zero2.To shift the burden from high to low density sector, foreign trade plays the vital role. The same is expected in specialization in production, division of labor, and increase in the national income. Foreign trade also widens the market and
19、 increases the inducement to invest income and saving via more efficient resource allocation. The benefits from foreign trade in Nepal may be noted as following. Firstly, trade provides materials, means (capital goods, machinery and raw-and semi-finished materials) dispensable for economic developme
20、nt. Secondly, trade is the means and vehicle for the dissemination of technological knowledge, the transmission of ideas, for the importation of know-how, skill, managerial talents and entrepreneurship. Thirdly, trade is the vehicle for the international movement and capital especially from the deve
21、loped to underdeveloped countries. Fourthly, free intervention trade is the best antimonopoly policy and best guarantee for the maintenance at a healthy degree of free competition (Meier 1975). The present study aims to analyze the effects of foreign trade on economic development process of Nepal. T
22、hus, a question arises, whether foreign trade plays significant role in the course of economic development or not? 1. Delimitation of the Study Leaving the earlier period from 1974/75,this study covers the period FY 1974/75 to FY 2002/2003 because of the inconsistency of the consumer price index. On
23、ly quantifiable variables have been given due consideration to analyze the direct effects of trade on the economic development. Indicators like PQLI, Basic need, HDI can be used as dependent variables to measure the development process of a country but the data are unavailable in accordance. Accordi
24、ngly, GDP and PCI are only accepted as the major dependent variables for measuring the economic development process. 2. Theoretical Framework The problems of underdevelopment are mostly related to poverty, unemployment, low quality of peoples lives, low level of capital formation, limited choices of
25、 people and mainly of low level of income. Economic development has however, attracted the attention of economists right from Adam Smith down to Marx and Keynes, yet found mainly interested in the static problems and largely related to the Western European framework. It is however, especially after
26、the Second World War that economists started devoting their attention towards analyzing the problems of underdeveloped countries and formulating theories and models of development. Most development economists are almost unanimous in their view that capital is an essential factor in promoting economi
27、c development. Their interest in the economics of development has been further stimulated by the wave of political resurgence that swept the Asian and African nations as they threw off the colonial yoke after the Second World War. The view regarding the concept of development indicators has differed
28、. Other than Gross National Product (GNP), Simon Kuznets (1955), Meier and Baldwin (1960) supposed NI as a basic indicator of economic development. Economists like Benjamin Higgins (1999), Harvey Leibenstein (1957), W. Arthur Lewis (1961) and Jacob Viner (1977) take PCI as an indicator of economic d
29、evelopment. Presently, human development index (HDI0.80) is supposed to be a better indicator. A great controversy however, lies in regard to the selection of indicators; attentions are laid in accordance to the availability of data. In fact, economic development is the result of secular change in l
30、ong run. Gold and silver, to Mercantilists, makes a country in well-off situation; increase in national production, to Classicists, is because of profit motive .J.S.Mill (1848)adopts co-operative to increase the welfare of the society and view that laborers overcome from different kinds of dominatio
31、n via co-operative. Marx (1977) advocates socialism as an essential factor for raising maximum welfare. The concept of National Income or Per Capita Income has nevertheless ruled for many years, the now, more emphasis has been given to non-income criteria like basic needs criteria, physical quality
32、of life index- PQL1, and Human Development Index-HDI. Economic development is the process whereby the real per capita income of a country increases over a long period of time-subject to the stipulations that the number of people below an absolute poverty line does not increase, and that the distribu
33、tion of income does not become more unequal (Meier 1963; Baron 1957). Kuznets (1955), Meier and Baldwin (1960), Meade(1972)all have used NI as an appropriate measure of economic development, since per-capita income depends upon the national income. Prof. Meade expects per capita income as the proper
34、 medium for providing welfare. Nevertheless, Ahluwalia et.al (1976)disagree and state” growth rate of GNP in itself is a misleading indicator of development since it is heavily weighted by the income shares of the rich.” Though controversial, Morris Demorest (1979) too asserts Gross National Product
35、(GNP)as the most widely accepted measure of progress. Summary and Conclusions The effects of export expansion to economic growth are observed by applying a number of models in both constant and current prices. In the course of analysis, most models of current price data are found valid rather than t
36、he models of constant price data. Various forms of the models like, linear, log-linear, Cobb-Douglas and growth rate are applied where capital, labor and export have been observed significant in both linear and log-linear forms. Moreover, the same factors however showed less validity and reliability
37、 of the model when fitted in growth rate form. At the same time growth rate of labor has remained negative and insignificant but capital has remained positive with insignificant t-value. Contrary to this, export is positive as well as highly significant. Replacement of export to manufactured export,
38、 the degree of association further comes down. The inclusion of average propensity to invest, the product of export growth and ratio of exports to GDP (XGr) raised the explained per cent of variation. The propensity to invest has remained as insignificant where as XGr is positive as well as signific
39、ant. The replacement of capital to saving remains insignificant with positive sign. 译文 对外贸易对尼泊尔经济发展的影响 资料来源 ：尼商学杂志， 第 2 卷第 1 期（ 2005 年） 作者： Om Sharma Rajendra Bhandari 对外贸易被认为是一个对于加速经济发展的道路至关重要的因素。大多数国家都认为：外贸创造就业 , 提高储蓄倾向，增加出口心创汇，使投资移动的生产率从较低的生产率提高到 较 高 的 生产率 （侯赛因 1996 年）。由于对外开放的好处因此它被作为每个国家的不可分割的组成
40、部分。对于发展中国家来说，贸易是实现全球化利益的主要工具。进口带来 的 额外的竞争和国内市场品种的多元化有利于消费者。 同时 外贸使企业在机器，工具，提高生产力方面的资本要素投入水平得到提高。 另外 外贸还鼓励资本和劳动力重新再分配到更多的生产部门。尤为重要的是 ,它对于一些制造业和服务活动的转变为工业发展中国家提供了新的发展机会 (世界发展报告 1999/2000)。 世界发展报告（ 1999/2000）强调在 90 年代货物和服务贸易量是全球国内生产总值增长速度的两倍，同时归功于此，发展中国家的国内生产总值也从 23%攀升至 29%。在 1994-1997 年的时期，信息和通信技术 每年
41、25%的爆炸式增长为发展中国家提供了另一个机会。 尼泊尔作为 一个发展中国家在通信技术上的深厚潜力将可能解决它作为内陆国家贸易和关税壁垒的问题。同时，在服装、地毯和其他农业和服务之相关产品及联系密切的草药和阿育吠陀药物生产上的机遇是不可忽视的。 尼泊尔的外贸表现到目前为止是不好的。很多因素都将对此负责，而这其中，它作为内陆国家是一个主要引起尼泊尔较差的生产能力的因素，这又最终引起了对技术和原材料的进出口。它不仅没有印度开放的国界而且受制于交通设施，这些因素以各种方式限制了它与海外国家的贸易。因为通过中国过境几乎是不切实际的，印度也只不过是在商业流动这一经济领域是可供尼 泊尔运作行的。事实上 ,
42、世界上没有一个国家像尼泊尔一样 (不包括不丹 )是如此绝望的依赖获得的交通设施 (1998)。历史上，这在尼泊尔过去为了获得印度的交通设施而允许印度商品在尼泊尔领土上流通而签订的关于两个国家的几乎所有的贸易、转口条约中得到证明。也正因为这个原因，尼泊尔的贸易尤其在进口贸易上特别受制于印度。在这种情形下，无论是外贸和经济上期望它有快速的发展都是不可能的。 然而 ， 外贸因为其国际收支平衡中的地位使其在周期计划中有着预期的压力。为了实现利用出口新产品来改变出口结构 的局面，第九周的计划 (1997/98 2001/02)不鼓励进口奢侈品并且确保使足够的生活必需品在合理的价格。这种巨大的压力需要通过
43、工业上鼓励出口和进口替代政策来缓解。 尼泊尔， 是 一个以农业为基础的经济体系， 80%的人致力于农业生产并且农业在总国内生产总值占了 40%多的比例。由于尼泊尔是一个最不发达的工业原材料及高度装备机械 的国家，只有最低的符合成本效益的机会。小的国内市场似乎是阻碍经济发展的障碍。那么国际市场便是唯一现成的利用资源的方式。 出现在世界市场管理上的最基本问题是如何处理不同的国家政治体系环境，商业习俗及怎样实践并结合不同的政治和 法律手续，不同的货币单位，不同的技术水平，不同的文化及社会实践（史仁达 ， 1994）。因此即使尼泊尔预先准备针对美国，日本，及欧洲市场不同的方案，也可能无法应对不同层次的
44、国际市场出现的状况。哈伯勒的结论是国际贸易对 19 世纪及 20 世纪的发展中国家及不发达国家做出了巨大的贡献并且预计将在未来作出更大的贡献（哈伯勒 1959）。 作为世界上最不发达的国家，尼泊尔陷入了由于大批人坚持从事农业而引起的劳动力缺失的恶性循环。为了降低这一负担，外贸便扮演了一个重要的角色。同样的这也有利于专业化生产，劳动分工，及国民收入的增加 。另外外贸扩大了市场，增加了投资诱因收入和更有效节省资源利用效率的配置。尼泊尔从发展外贸得到的好处还有：首先 ,贸易提供经济发展所必需的材料、装置 (资本货物、机械、原料和半成品材料等 )。第二，贸易是技术知识传播的方式和手段，也传输引进知识，
45、技能，管理人才和企业家精神的想法。第三，贸易是沟通发达国家与发展中国家之间的跨国运作和资本流通的桥梁。第四，自由贸易是最好的反干预政策和维护良性自由竞争最好的保障（梅尔 1975）。 本研究旨在分析外贸在尼泊尔发展过程中对经济发展的影响 。 因此，一个问题出现了，是否外贸在经济发展中扮演一个重要的角色？ 1.划界的研究 早在 1974 1975 年的时候，由于消费物价指数的不一致就已经开始了对1974/75 到 2002/2003 的财政年度的研究。可量化的变量已经被给予考虑来分析外贸对经济发展的直接影响。像生活质量指标，基本需求，人类发展指数虽然可作为 变量的依据来衡量一个国家的发展进程但是
46、其数据是难以获得的。因此，只有国内生产总值和 人均收入 是被作为测量经济发展过程的主要变量的依据。 2.理论框架 不发达的问题大多与贫困，低生活质量指标，低水平的资本形成，有限的选择和低收入。经济发展的研究吸引了包括了亚当斯密及马克思和凯恩斯的的注意，目前为止主要集中在静态的问题和西欧框架相关的。然而，在第二次世界大战以后经济学家开始将他们的注意力转向分析不发达国家的问题及制定理论和 模型上。大部分经济学家都在资本是在经济发展的过程中的一个重要的因素这一观点上达成一致。他们感兴趣的是经济的进一步发展会刺激政治浪潮的复活 ， 正如以前亚洲和非洲国家在第二次世界大战后就摆脱了殖民的束缚一样。关于发
47、展指标的概念仍还有不同的看法。其它的比如库兹涅茨（ 1955）就把国民生产总值（ GNP），迈耶和鲍德温（ 1960）就把国民收入作为经济发展的指标。经济学家比如本杰明 希金斯（ 1999），哈维 莱本斯坦（ 1957）， W.亚瑟路易斯（ 1961）和维纳（ 1977）就把 人均收入 作为经济发展的指标。现在，人类发展指 数（ HDI0.80）则被认为是一个更好的参考指标。 然而一个具有争议性的问题在于指标的选择， 及注意要根据数据的可靠性。事实上，经济发展是长时期的变化的结果。 黄金和白银， 到重商主义者， 这都可以使 一个国家 走在小康的情况 ；古典主义学者认为国民生产总值的增加是因为利
48、益的驱使。密尔（ 1848）接受合作可以增加社会福利的观点及他认为劳动者会通过控制合作来得到那些。马克思（ 1977）主张社会主义是提高最大程度福利的一个重要因素。国民收入及人均收入作为指标的观点也不过统治了很多年，现在，则偏重以非收入类作为标准 ， 例如基本需求标准，物质生活指数和人类发展指数。 经济的发展是一个国家长期实际人均年收入增加的过程，按照这一规定那些大多数人在绝对贫困线以下的人并不会在收入上有所增加，并且收入分配上会越来越不平等（梅尔 1963；巴伦 1957）。 库兹涅茨（ 1955），梅尔和鲍尔温（ 1960），米德（ 1972）都把国民收入作为实现经济发展的目标，同时人均收
49、入又取决于国民收入。米德教授又认为人均收入是取得福利的介质。然而，阿鲁瓦利亚等人（ 1976）并不赞同国民生产总值的增长率是一种误导发展的指标因为它对增加股票收入十分有利。尽管饱受争议，莫里斯（ 1979）仍坚持国民生产总值作为测量社会进步的最为广泛接受的措施。 总结和结论 出口扩张对经济增长的影响从采用常量和当前价格的一系列模型中可以观察出。在分析过程中，大部分被发现有效的是当前价格数据的模型而不是常量的价格数据模型。多种模型的形式，例如线性模型，对数线性模型，科布道格拉斯函数，以及增长率，都被用于资本，劳动力和出口的研究中，它们都曾被线性模型以及对数线性模型进行富有意义的研究。此外，容纳了增长率形式的模型在相同的因素下却表现出更少的有效性和可靠性。与此同时劳动力的增长速度始终是 消极和无关紧要的而资本则一直表现出积极和重要性。相反，出口则有积极的一面也有极其重要的一面。若将出口更换成生产出口关联的程度将会持续下降。包括投资的平均倾向，产品的出口增长和在国内生产总值中的出口比例都解释了百分点的变化。投资的倾向仍然是微不足道的而与此同时国内生产总值则是积极并且有意义的。资本抵补保存仍然是无关紧要及积极的标志 。
