1、 外文翻译 原文 Changing Pattern In Word Textile Trade Material Source: JAmerican Economic Review, 2007（ 3） Author: Ayub Har Abstract The objective of this study is to forecast the future trade patterns and to identify the determinants of exports of textile and clothing. We included top 24 leading exportin
2、g countries from the textile and clothing sectors. Those countries cover more than 72 percent of global exports and 70 percent of imports in textile and clothing sectors. The countries cover 81 percent of the Gross World Product (GWP) also. To quantify the impacts of causal factors on imports and ex
3、ports, we developed an econometric model and found that financial liquidity, endogenous production of cotton and the magnitude of imported raw material and intermediate goods are the root-causes of export of textile and clothing products. While, GDP and exports of textile and clothing products are p
4、roved as good predictors of import of textile and clothing products. The study gives surprising results and mentions that China, Hong Kong and Italy will be the net looser, while the United States and Canada will be the net gainers in future. Keywords: textile; trade; pattern; export Textile and clo
5、thing industries and trade have long been a catalyst of economic growth throughout the world. In 2001, it accounted for over US$450 billion of trade worldwide. In terms of share of population employed and of total exports, it is particularly important for developing countries (like Korea, India, Ind
6、onesia, and Mexico), especially for some of the least developing countries (like Bangladesh and Pakistan), which have a very high dependence on textile and clothing exports. The total export value in world clothing trade was US $206 billion in 1999, with 63 percent shared by the top 15 exporting cou
7、ntries. China was the world leader, with 16 percent of global export market share, followed by Hong Kong with 12 percent market share, and Italy, United States, Mexico, Germany, Turkey, France, Korea and India. In world textile trade, the total export value of textiles was US $ 164 billion in 1999,
8、with the top 15 countries supplying 74 percent of the global export market share. The leader was China, followed by Hong Kong, Germany, Italy, Korea, Taiwan, and the United States. In 1999, the total export values of Textile and Clothing form China, Hong Kong and Italy were $43 billion, $35 billion
9、and $25 billion respectively. On a compound basis, the total export from China increased by 7 percent annually in 1992-99 (WTO 2000). From 2005 all quotas currently applied by World Trade Organization (WTO) members on trade in textiles and clothing, will be abolished. Although, textile and clothing
10、producers in places such as European Union (EU) and the United States will face increased competition, developing countries, which depend consider a blyon textile and clothing exports to earn foreign exchange, will also be in the front- line. Yet, quota elimination is not the end of the story. Effor
11、ts to liberalize the sector continue within the on-going WTO negotiations under the Doha Development Agenda, as many restrictions to trade remain e.g. very high tariffs and a numbers of non-tariff barriers. Expected fears and changing created a nexus of regulatory frameworks in the front of economic
12、 and financial policies of textile and cloths exporting countries. According to the European Trade Commission, Trade in textile raises issues that go the core of the WTOs Doha Development Agenda: development promotion, ree and fair trade, and open market access conditions worldwide. The most importa
13、nt issue in relation with the free trade regime is the sharing of trade among the partners. What will be the expected shares in global markets and how present ranking will be affected by the trade liberalization; it is an extremely important area and one of the burning issues. China has been a major
14、 player in the world clothing and textile trade in recent decades. So, its accession to WTO has been generated serious concerns that how the competitiveness of Chinas textile and clothing industry will be influenced by WTO and trade globalization. The US and Caribbean textile producers have shown th
15、eir fear for the competition from a flood of low-priced Chinese goods once the United States fully phases out import quotas in a little less than two years. According to the American Textile Manufacturers Institute (ATMI), the US textile companies 。 were already facing “ extreme price pressures” fro
16、m China, whose exports to the United States have surged since joining the World Trade Organization two years ago. The US companies face some of their fiercest competition from government-owned Chinese companies that routinely lose money. According to the ATMI, in competing with China, they are not o
17、nly competing with low wages, they are competing with companies that do not have to make a profit. While, other Asian countries have also cost advantages and they can capture the worlds markets. The US Trade Representatives office is investigating how ending the quotas will affect the competitive po
18、sition of US trading partners. In prepared testimony, the ATMI mentioned the US trade panel that it is expected that China to dominate the US import market after the quotas were eliminated. Vietnam, Mexico, Bangladesh and the countries that have preferential trade deals with the United States would
19、make upa second tie group of suppliers. Some private consultants in the United States have also agreed on this assessment. According to the chief of US and Caribbean textile group, the phasing out of quotas in 2005 would deal a “devastating blow” to their industries, amid a flood of low-priced cloth
20、ing and fabric imports from China. The American Textile Manufacturers Institute (ATMI) mentioned that scores of US textile firms and tens of thousands of jobs had already been lost said “extreme price pressures” from factories in China and other countries in Asia. ATMI predicted that China would dom
21、inate the US import market from 2005 with other countries that enjoys preferential trade deals with the US. Competition in the market is intense. Besides the remaining domestic producers who compete for business, no less than 125 foreign countries are major shippers of textiles and clothing to the U
22、S. When every country is free to export as much textile and clothing to US as it wants, will there still be 125 major suppliers? According to ATMI, US importers of such goods will be dominated by China, with Vietnam, India, Pakistan and some countries, which enjoy preferential access to the US, mark
23、et “plying secondary roles”, and the rest nowhere. Chinas particularly unlimited supply of cheap labor gives it a big advantage in a labor-intensive industry like clothing. China furthermore is almost self-sufficient in the necessary raw material cotton, manmade fibers, silk, flax and ramie, dyestuf
24、fs and textile chemicals also in textile machinery. It only needs to import wool, which Australia and New Zealand are only too happy to supply. According to the ATMI, besides the above- mentioned advantages the government of China has created other benefits to ensure Chinas dominance of world textil
25、e and apparel trade. 1. An undervalued currency, which gives Chinas, exports a 30- 40 percent price advantage in US market. 2. An attitude that quotas are meant to be circumvented to the tune of $4-5 billion annually. 3. A willingness to permit Chinese companies to steal textile designs and copyrigh
26、ts in violation of its own laws and international agreements. 4. Subsidization of its exports by manipulating the so-called “rebate” of its value-added tax on exports. 5. Predatory pricing or dumping whenever needed to capture market share. While India and Pakistan have some of then atural and gover
27、nment-induced advantages that China enjoys. However, they do not (except for Indias population) enjoy them to the same degree, as does China. None of them has the population, raw materials, vertical organization or variety of products that China has, or even close to it. Only Vietnam, whose wages ar
28、e even lower than Chinas stands a chance of survival. They struggle to maintain a significant presence in world textile and apparel trade. Textile and apparel account for a significant share o f their export earnings and cotton farming is a large part of heir domestic economies and the social upheav
29、al. So, they will do whatever it tackles to survive. If it requires more and larger subsidies they will subsidize. If it takes increased dumping, they will dump. If more currency manipulation is needed, they will manipulate their currencies. To protect itself from the fear of uneven competition, Uni
30、ted States textile industry took an important decision. They are planning to enter into joint ventures with the textile producers in Asian countries. By this way, they ill shift their manufacturing units to Asian countries to achieve the significant cost advantages. Heavy inflow of direct investment
31、 in the field of textile is being expected in the Asian economies. Now, global textile industry is passing through an interim phase of stctural changes. Those changes are the consequence of expected changing in the global trade patterns under the open competition policy. Free Trade System follows th
32、e classical economic thoughts that: If governments take no fiscal measures, the global economies will grow swiftly and end-users (consumers) will be net beneficiaries. Classical economists have been favoring the free trade system. Classical theories mention that if a country has absolute advantages
33、in the production of several commodities (like China has good symptoms of growth in spinning, garments and textile machinery), it will prefer to choose those commodities, where benefits are comparatively higher. By this policy, a country can maximize its overall growth. This choice depends on the wa
34、y of best utilization of economic and financial resources. II: OBJECTIVES AND HYPOTHESIS: The objective of this study is to forecast the future trade patterns and to identify the determinants of exports of textile and clothing. We have tested the correlations between several variables and found that
35、 there is no significant relation between the trade policies of importing countries and the export volume of exporting countries. Exporting countries strongly emphasize and demand for the friendly policies of importing countries. However, no significant relations between the trade restrictions by im
36、porting countries - quota ceiling, regulatory duties, or trade favoritism - and export value were observed. From analytical point of view, we classified the textile exporting countries in three classes: 1. Countries that have sufficient resources in term of endogenous raw material and can supply the
37、ir products at the lower cost of production. Pakistan, India, China, Turkey and the United States are the members of this class. 2. Countries that have excess liquidity, so they can exploit the market through artificial arrangements. By means of efficient utilization of excess liquidity or savings,
38、they can acquire better technology and then monopolize the trade and marketing and then achieve economies of scale through dumping and marketing strategies. They can provide monetary subsidies in terms of working capital loans and refinancing facilities at cheaper cost of debts. China, Japan, German
39、y, Italy, France and Canada are included in this category. 3. Countries in the third category are based on the strong economic powers. We included the countries in this class on the bases of their Gross Domestic Products (GDP). If a country has higher GDP, it is the indicator of its higher economic
40、power. The countries who have sufficient economic powers can provide hidden and invisible subsidies like good sources of communication and information, free of cost availability of good infrastructure, insurance facilities at lower cost; cultural and social hegemony, availability of first hand techn
41、ology and trained management etc. China, United States, Canada, Japan, France, Germany, and Italy are enjoying the status of those countries. Conclusion and Implications The simulation analysis concluded that China, Hong Kong and Italy will be net looser in this game and the United States, Canada, U
42、nited Kingdom and Spain will be net gainers. It is noteworthy that the shifting in patterns of textile trade was based on the assumptions that GDP growth rates, saving to GDP ratio and Investment to GDP ratio will remain constant. The estimated parameters in regression analysis show that export enha
43、ncement depend largely on the imported raw material and intermediate products. Endogenous production of raw material will remain to play its favorable role, but it is a weaker factor. It is expected that concentration in the textile and clothing trade will be reduced and trade will be based on two-w
44、ay transaction. A textile exporter country will have to import the textile products to complete a vertical chain of textile products. Because of regional diversity and interdependency, textile products will not be used as a geo- political and economic weapon like petroleum. An association between th
45、e textile and clothing exporting countries will not be comparable with the oil producing countries (OPEC). 译文 改变世界纺织品贸易模式 资料来源 : J.美国经济评 ,2007(3). 作者 : 阿亚博 .迈哈德 摘 要 本研究的目的是要预测未 来的贸易格局和判别未来纺织品和服装出口的决定因素。我们采纳了纺织和服装行业的前 24 领先出口国。这些国家囊括了全球出口超过 72%的国家和进口纺织品及服装占 70%的部门。这些国家占世界总产值的 81%。为了确定影响进出口的原因 ,我们设计了一
46、种计量模型 ,研究发现金融流动性 ,棉花生产和货物进口原料的规模大小 ,半成品量 ,是引起纺织品和服装产品出口的根本因素。同时 ,国内生产总值和纺织品及服装产品的出口很好的证明了对纺织服装产品进口的预测。这项研究给出了令人惊讶的结果 ,同时提及了中国、香港和意大利将会成为 政策净 宽松对象 ,而 美国和加拿大将成为 净 胜利者。 关键词 ： 纺织业；贸易 ； 模式 ；出口 纺织服装工业和贸易长久以来一直是世界各地经济增长的催化剂。在 2001年 ,它占了全球贸易的 4500 亿美元。从人口比例上看 ,采用总出口计算法 ,将会对于发展中国家尤为重要 (如韩国、印度、印度尼西亚、和墨西哥 ),尤其
47、是对于那些 相对落后的 发展中国家 (如孟加拉共和国和巴基斯坦 ),这些国家有非常高的纺织品和服装的出口依赖度。 1999 年服装行业的出口总额是 206 亿美元 ,期中的 63%被全球出口率前 15的国家占有。中国是全球出口第一 ,占全球出口市场份额的 16%,其次是香港占12%的市场份额 ,然后是意大利、美国、墨西哥、德国、土耳其、法国、韩国和印度。在世界纺织品贸易上， 1999 年纺织品出口总额纺织品是 1,640 亿美元 ,期中全球前 15 个国家 ,占全球出口市场份额 74%。中国第一 ,其次是香港、德国、意大利、韩国、台湾、和美国。 1999 年 ,中国、香港和意大利的总出口纺织品
48、和服装的价值分别为 430 亿美元 ,$ 35 亿美元 ,分别 250 亿美元。从总体上看 ,自1992-99(WTO 2000)中国每年出口增长率为百分之七。 从 2005 年开始，世界贸易组织 (WTO)成员关于纺织品和服 装贸易的配额制将被废除。虽然、纺织、服装生产商 ,如欧盟 (欧盟 )和美国将面临竞争加剧 ,那些依靠纺织服装出口创汇的发展中国家也将面临着剧烈的竞争。然而 ,配额消除并非故事的结局。因为很多限制贸易留下 ,例如 :非常高的关税和非关税壁垒的数量，所以在世贸组织多哈发展议程下放开了的部门将继续努力进行协商。 预期的恐惧和改变创造了一个经济、金融政策、纺丝、布料输出国之间管
49、理框架的关系。根据欧盟贸易委员会、纺织品贸易议题的核心，世贸组织多哈发展议程为发展促进稀土、公平交易、公开市场的存在争取全球条件。 自由贸易关系中最重要的就是成员之间分享贸易。股票的目前排名和在全球市场上的期望将受到贸易自由化的影响 ,这是一个极其重要的问题。 在最近几十年，中国已经成为世界上主要的服装和纺织品贸易国。所以 , 中国纺织服装工业将受到加入 世贸组织 所产生的严重的竞争力和贸易全球化的影响。 美国和加勒比海纺织品制造商担心：在不到两年的时间里，一旦美国限制配额完全开放，一大批中国制造的产品将进入。根据美国纺织品生产商研究所：美国纺织品公司已经面临来自中国的“极端价格压力”的竞争。中国在加入世界贸易组织的两年前就存在着对美国出口上升 的情况。美国公司面临着中国控股公司的激烈竞争。根据 纺织品制造协会 显示 ,在与中国公司的竞争中 ,美国公司不仅在工资上处于略势 ,而且无利润可获。其他亚洲国家也具有成本优势，且可以在世界市场上占优势。 美国贸易代表办公室正在调查结
