1、1 外文翻译 原文 China in the international fragmentation of production: Evidence from the ICT industry Material Source:The European Journal of Comparative Economics Author:Alessia Amighini 2. Processing trade and industrial upgrading. The idea of international trade as a transmission mechanism that links
2、a countrys productivity gains to economic development in its trade partners has been firstly put forward by the new theory of economic growth (see Grossman and Helpman, 1994) for a review). The framework for this paper is based on a line of such research that explored the relationship between trade
3、patterns and industrial upgrading. A first direction of research includes theoretical studies showing that a higher aggregate trade volume is assumed to have a positive effect on productivity growth as it spurs innovation and imitation (see Grossman and Helpman, 1991 as a benchmark and Helpman, 1992
4、). At a sectoral level, there is some empirical evidence that trade openness enhances productivity gains and industrial catching-up in technology-intensive industries (Stehrer and ,Worz 2003). On the one hand, openness on the export side is conducive to innovation to the extent that export-oriented
5、production has to maintain competitiveness on world markets. On the import side, a high import penetration within the same industry is found to have positive spillovers on productivity catching-up. Overall, there is evidence of positive intra-industry spillovers of specialization in high tech indust
6、ries. A second direction of research includes theoretical and empirical studies focussing on the hypothesis that technology catching-up is not independent from trade specialization. Stehrer andWorz (2003) recently tackled this issue in an empirical study exploring the hypothesis that the long-term p
7、osition of a country may depend on its initial pattern of production specialization. The reason for this is that technology spillovers may occur mainly or at least are assumed to be stronger 1 2 within one industry than across industries, due to learning processes and intra-industry linkages.They fi
8、nd that the experience of East Asia would represent a case of countries starting off at the lower end of high-tech industries (i.e. producing less sophisticated consumer goods or assembling high-tech imported inputs) and then starting manufacturing high-tech intermediate goods. A third direction is
9、theoretical and empirical research suggesting that trade in intermediate goods is an important channel of the transmission of technology (Coe and Helpman, 1995; Coe, Helpman and Hoffmaister, 1995; Keller, 2001). A countrys productivity depends not only on domestic R Antrs and Helpman, 2003). Various
10、 issues associated with international fragmentation of production have been investigated (Arndt and Kierzkowski, 2001). The phenomenon of international fragmentation of production has led to changes in the structure of international trade and in countries specialization patterns. This splitting- up
11、of the value chain allows for a more in-depth specialization: different stages of production correspond to different production functions so that a country may have a comparative advantage in one stage of production and a comparative disadvantage in other Stages. If comparative advantages can be fou
12、nd only in some stages of production, whereas others are disadvantaged, this is referred to as vertical specialization. In the presence of vertical specialization, the analysis of trade patterns requires data at a sufficiently high level of disaggregation so as to be able to distinguish between fina
13、l and intermediate goods. At least for the ICT sector, this is not fully feasible with less than a 5-digit level of disaggregation. Empirical studies that have analysed trade patterns in the presence of the fragmentation have focussed mainly on major industrialized countries (Fontagn? Freudenberg, K
14、esenci, 1996), Eastern European countries (Freudenberg and Lemoine, 1999), and East Asian countries (Ng and Yeats, 1999). These studies have highlighted the importance of intermediate goods and the influence of geographic proximity on production fragmentation among countries. They have also provided
15、 evidence of important cases of vertical division of labour and of switches in comparative advantages along production processes. The ICT industry is one of the most globally dispersed activities in the manufacturing sector. At the origin of this production fragmentation is a massive international d
16、elocalization by leading multinational manufacturers, mainly based in the United States, in Japan and in some European countries. This section analyses production fragmentation in the ICT industry over the last decade based on SITC trade data at five-digit level of disaggregation. ICT production has
17、 been increasingly dispersed across countries over the last decade,as indicated by the high and growing exports of ICT parts and components during the 1990s . ICT parts and components considerably increased both in export value and as a share of total ICT exports. As a result, in 2001 they accounted
18、 for the vast majority of total trade in ICT products: 93% for Office machines, 74% for Semiconductors, 42% for IT products and 37% for Telecom equipment(Table 1) . Within this increasing fragmentation, China largely improved its market shares. 1 4 Over the 1990s, China entered the group of top thre
19、e exporters of ICT products (except for Semiconductors) (Table 2). Now it is the largest exporter of Office machines (20.8% of world exports); the second largest exporter of IT products (12.3%) and of Telecom products (10.5%). This paper explored the evolution of Chinas specialization in the ICT ind
20、ustry during the 1990s. The evidence shows that China dramatically increased its market shares in ICT products and now ranks among the three top world exporters (except for Semiconductors).China developed new comparative advantages in several ICT products, and became a net exporter of many of these.
21、 Moreover, the country upgraded from mere assembly of imported inputs to the manufacturing of high-tech intermediate goods, suggesting that industrial upgrading occurred in some tradable sectors through technological learning associated with processing trade. China also increased its market shares i
22、n parts and components of ICT products. Now it is the second largest exporter of parts of Office machines (10.7% of world exports), of parts of IT products (11.0%), and as the third largest exporter of Telecom products (12.6%). Parts and components now make up a major part of ICT exports for China (
23、Table 3) : 40% for Office machines, more than 44% for Telecom products, over 63% for IT products and over 80% for Semiconductors. This suggests that China has succeeded in becoming not only an assembly country (exporting mainly final goods obtained by processing imported inputs), but also a producer
24、 of high-tech intermediate products. The next section analyses Chinas specialization profile in order to see to what extent this increasing participation in ICT production has changed the countrys comparative advantages. This supports the hypothesis that selective policy measures, such as preferenti
25、al tariff treatment to assembling and processing activities introduced in China, can be welfare improving as formalized by Redding (1999). Those measures encouraged an increasing involvement of the country in production fragmentation, to the extent that final stages of production in Asian mature eco
26、nomies have tended to migrate to China, enhancing its export capacities and regional integration. This vertical specialization enabled China to rapidly diversify its exports of consumption goods and to switch its comparative advantages along production processes from unskilled labour-intensive assem
27、bly to more advanced processing activities. This is consistent with many studies highlighting that Chinas export performance since the mid-eighties was closely connected with the reorganization of productio n within Asia (Naughton, 1997; Lemoine, 1999 and 2000; Sung, 2000; Parker and Lee, 1 5 2001).
28、 Therefore, a pattern of specialization initially dominated by processing trade could be potentially favourable to a countrys long-term development, to the extent that entering at the lower end of high-tech sectors is promotive of catching up in more sophisticated technology-intensive production. Fr
29、om a development point of view, the Chinese experience suggests to further investigate the conditions and paths of technological learning in advanced sectors. This would be mostly useful for other developing countries with a current strong specialization in processing and assembly trade, such as Mex
30、ico. Table 1 Exports of ICT products , 1992 and 2002 (bln $) 1992 2002 Office machines (excel.parts) Parts thereof (% of total) 12 59(83%) 10 130(93%) IT products (excel.parts) Parts thereof (% of total) 72 49(40%) 164 119(42%) Telecom products (excel.parts) Parts thereof (% of total) 38 30(44%) 121
31、 71(37%) Semiconductors (excel.parts) Parts thereof (% of total) 41 76(65%) 81 229(74%) Source : elaborated on UNSD Comtrade Database Table 2 Toop exporters of ICT products , 1992 and 2002 (% market share) Office machines 1992 2002 IT products 1992 2002 Talecom products 1992 2002 Semiconductors 1992
32、 2002 Japan China 32.3% 20.8% USA USA 24.4% 13.3% Japan USA 25.7% 11.2% Germany USA 20.2% 14.4% Netherlands HongKong 10.2% 12.6% Japan China 22.0% 12.3% USA China 15.1% 10.5% Japan Germany 16,5% 14.2% Germany Germany 10.1% 10.3% UK Singapore 9.3% 9.5% Germany UK 7.9% 9.1% USA Japan 13.1% 12.4% USA N
33、etherlands 8.7% 10.1% OtherAsia Netherlands 7.5% 8.9% HongKong HongKong 6.2% 8.5% France Mexico 9.0% 6.55% 1 6 UK UK 8.3% 7.3% Germany Japan 7.2% 6.8% UK Korea,Rep. 4.8% 8.2% UK France .7% 6.2% Parts of Office machines 1992 2002 Parts of IT products 1992 2002 Parts of Telecom products 1992 2002 Part
34、s of Semiconductors 1992 2002 USA USA 21.7% 13.6% USA USA 22.6% 13.5% Japan Hong Kong 16.6% 14.8% Japan USA 23.1% 19.4% Japan China 15.5% 10.7% Japan China 16.3% 11.0% USA USA 15.4% 13.7% USA Japan 22.2% 13.5% Other Asia Japan 7.4% 10.1% UK Japan 7.0% 10.1% HongKong HongKong 8.2% 12.6% Korea,Rep. Si
35、ngapore 10.3% 12.8% UK HongKong 6.9% 9.2% HongKongHongKong 6.5% 9.2% Germany Japan 7.9% 9.2% Malaysia Malaysia 7.5% 8.3% HongKongSingapore 6.3% 7.8% Ireland Singapore 5.3% 7.9% Sweden Korea,Rep. 5.7% 5.2% Germany HongKong 5.3% 7.1% Source : elaborated on UNSD Comtrade Database Table 3 Sectoral break
36、down of Chinese exports of parts and components for ICT products ,1991 and 2001 (% on Chinese exports of ICT products) 1992 2001 1992 2001 Parts of Office machines 2.54% 3.40% Parts of Telecom products 12.71% 44.12% Parts of IT products 54.99% 63.02% Parts of Semiconductors 21.59% 80.31% Source : El
37、aborated on UNSD Comtrade Database 1 7 译文 国际生产布局中的中国 :来自 ICT 行业的证据 资料来源 : 欧洲比较经济学杂志 作者： Alessia Amighini 2.加工贸易和产业升级 国际贸易概念，作为连接一个国家的生产力和它贸易伙伴的经济发展的传输机制 ， 已首先在新经济增长理论中提出（ Grossman and Helpman, 1994）。本论文的框架是基于探讨贸易格局和产业升级之间关系的研究。第一个研究的方向，包括理论研究表明，较高的贸易总额对生产力提高有积极的作用，因为它刺激创新和模仿（ Grossman and Helpman, 1
38、991； benchmark and Helpman, 1992）。一些实验证据表明，在行业层面上，贸易开放可以加强生产力提高和赶超技术密集型产业（ Stehrer and Worz， 2003）。另一方面，出口方面的开放，有利于企业在一定程度上的创新，出口导向型生产必须在世界市场上保持竞争力。进口方面，在同一行业内，一个高进口渗透率被证实在赶超生产力方面有着积极的溢出效应。总的来说，有证据说明高科技产业专业化有着积极的产业溢出效应。 第二个 研究的方向 ，包括理论和实证研究， 侧重于假设 技术赶超不是独立于贸易专业化的（ Stehrer and Worz， 2003） 。 最近在实证研究 中
39、解决了这个问题，假设一个国家的长期地位取决于其生产专业化的初始模式。其原因是，由于学习过程和产业内的链接，技术外溢效应被认为可能主要或至少发生在一个工业内比发生在不同行业中更强大。他们发现，东南亚的经验，可以作为从高技术产业低端出发（生产不复杂的消费产品和装配进口投入的高新技术），开始生产高新技术中间产品的国家的一个典型代表。 第三个研究的方向是理论和实证研究表明，中间产品贸易是一个重要的技术传输渠道（ Coe,Helpman,1995;Coe,Helpman and Hoffmaister,1995;Keller,2001）。一个国家的生产力不仅取决于国内的研发资金，而且也受嵌在进口产品的外
40、国研发资金影响。外国研发资金带来的利益可以是直接的也可以是间接的。直接利益包括学习新技术，材料，生产过程或者组织方法。间接利益源于由贸易伙伴开发的进口货物和服务。因此，高新技术产业在进口方面开放程度越高，越能从国内生产力的国际溢出效应中受益。（ Coe and Helpman,1995)研究 发现外国1 8 研发资本存量对占国内生产总值进口较 大份额的生产力有较大影响，对占较小份额的经济体来说，外国研发资本存量至少和国内研发资本存量一样重要。因此，对新兴经济体来说，进口部件的装配可能是获得高新技术和受益于技术外溢的最简单的方法，但这需要提高总要素的生产力。 熟记上述框架，接下来我们要探讨中国在
41、通信产业的专业分工。我们将会评估加工装配贸易是否已经为更高形式的生产出口铺平了道路，即是否出口更多的技能和技术密集型产品。第三节描述了通信领域的生产分散化，侧重于中国在世界市场上的地位。第四节分析了中国比较优势在生产水平上的演化。 3.通信产业的分散化 在过去的十年里，国际生产分散化一直是经济增长的焦点。生产国际化这个想法包括各种形式的国际贸易（ Deardorff, 2001）。最近，国外外包的形式已经使公司部分产品海外采购的决策正式化（ Grossman and Helpman, 2002;Antrs and Helpman, 2003）。与国际生产分散化有关的各种问题已经在调查（ Arn
42、dt and Kierzkowski, 2001）。 国际生产分散化现象已经在国际贸易结构和国家分工模式中引起了变化。这种价值链上的分裂可以更深入的专业化：不同的生产阶段 具有不同的生产功能，这使一个国家可能在一个生产阶段比其它阶段更有优势。如果这种比较优势只在一些别人处于劣势地位的生产阶段被发现，就被称为“垂直专业化”。 垂直专业化的存在，使贸易模式的分析需要一个足够高水平变革的数据来区别最终和中间产品。至少在通信领域，少于五位水平分布式是完全不可行的。 实证研究 分析了由于分散化的存在，贸易格局主要集中分布在主要工业国(Fontagn, Freudenberg, nal-Kesenci,
43、1996)，东欧国家 (Freudenberg and Lemoine, 1999)和东亚国家 (Ng and Yeats, 1999)。这些研究强调了中间产品的重要性和影响各国间产品分散化的地域优势。他们还提供了劳动的垂直分工的重要案例和在生产过程中具有比较优势的交换要素的证据。生产分散化的起源是由美国，日本和一些欧洲国家的跨国制造商领导的大规模国际海外采购活动。这章节分析了通信产业的分散化在过去十年以 五位水平分布的 国际贸易标准为基础的数据。 在过去的十年，通信技术生产日渐分散在各个国家， 20世纪 90年代通信产业零部件呈高增长出口趋势。通信产业零部件在出口金额和通信产品总出口的份额都
44、大 大增加了。结果显示， 2001年通信产业零部件占了通信产品贸易总额的绝大部分 ：办公设备占总额的 93%，半导体占总额的 74%，电子产品占总额的 42% ，电信设备占额的 37% (表一）。 生产的日益分散化，在很大程度上提高了中国的市场份额。 20世纪 90年代，中国进入了信息通信技术产品出口国集团的前三名（除了半导体）（表二），现1 9 在是世界上最大的办公设备出口国（占世界出口的 20.8%），第二大信息通信技术产品（ 12.3%）和电信产品 (10.5%)的出口国。 中国还扩大了 信息通信技术产品零部件的市场份额 。现在中国是世界上第二大办公设备零部件（占世界出口的 10.7%）
45、，通信技术产品零部件的出口国（ 11.0%），以及世界第三大电信产品出口国（ 12.6%）。零部件构成了中国 信息和通信技术产品出口的主要部分 （表三）： 40的办公设备，超过 44的电信产品， 超过 63% 信息技术产品和超过 80% 的半导体产品。这表明中国不仅成功地成为装配国家 （主要是由出口加工进口的投入获得最终产品） ，而且也成为高科技中间产品的生产者。下一章节分析了中国的专业化剖面，以便了解通信产业的参与在何种程度上改变了国家比较优势。 本文讨论了 20世纪 90年代中国在通信产业的专业化发展。实证分析结果表明，中国在通信产业的市场份额急剧增加，现在排名为世界三大出口国（除了半导体
46、）。中国在一些通信产品发展了新的比较优势，成为这些产品的网上出口商。此外，这个国家从单纯的升级组装到制造高新技术的中间产品，这表明发生在某些交易部门的产业升级是通过技术的学习与加工贸易联系在一起的。 雷丁（ 1997）支持选择性政策措施，例如关税优惠，在中国的装配加工活动，可以提高社会福利假设。这些措施鼓励了越来越多的国家参与了产业的分散化，在某种程度上，亚洲的成熟经济的最后阶 段生产往往迁移到了中国，加强了出口能力和区域一体化。垂直专业化使中国快速多样地出口消费产商品，使生产过程的比较优势从非熟练的劳动力密集型装配转换到更先进的加工活动。许多研究一致认为从八十年代中期开始中国的出口表现就与亚
47、洲的生产重组紧密相连（ Naughton, 1997; Lemoine, 1999 and 2000;Sung, 2000; Parker and Lee, 2001）。 因此，最初占专业化模式主导地位的加工贸易，可能成为一个国家长远发展的潜在利益，在某种程度上，进入高新技术产业的下端促进了更复 杂的技术密集型产业的发展。从发展的角度来看，中国的经验表明需要进一步调查学习先进行业技术的条件和路径。这更有利于当前正进行专业化加工装配贸易的其它发展中国家，例如墨西哥。 表一 1992年和 2002年信息通信产品出口 （亿美元） 年份 1992 2002 办公设备（不包括零件） 零部件（占总数的百分比） 12 59(83%) 10 130(93%) 电子产品（不包括零 件） 零部件（占总数的百分比） 72 49(40%) 164 119(42%) 1 10 电信产品（不包括零件） 零部件（占总数的百分比） 38 30(44%) 121 71(37%) 半导体产品（不包括零件） 零部件（占总数的百分比） 41 76(65%) 81 229(74%) 资源来源：联合国统计 司阐述的 Comtrade 数据库 表二 1992和 2002年 信息通信技术产品主要出口商（占市场份额的百分比） 办公设备 1992年 2002年 电子产品 1992年 2002年 电信产品 1992
