1、 外文翻译 原文 Foreign direct investment inflows and economic growth of China Material Source:ScienceDirect,Vol.32,No.1,2010 Author: Mah,Jai 1. Introduction It has often been argued that FDI inflow is one of the driving forces of economic growth in developing countries. Historical evidences are mixed. Of
2、the so-called four east Asian tigers, Hong Kong and Singapore succeeded in attracting huge amount of FDI; however, South Korea and Taiwan did not attract it so much. Since economic reform in 1979, China has recorded remarkable economic growth rates; for instance, the annual average real GDP growth r
3、ate was as high as 8.3 percent during 19792001. In the meantime, China has actively tried to attract FDI inflows. FDI flows into China increased from US$ 0.9 billion in 1983 to US$ 46.9 billion in 2001 (Table 1). Chen, Chang, and Zhang (1995) evaluated that FDI had contributed to Chinas post-1978 ec
4、onomic growth by augmenting resources available for capital formation and export earnings. Meanwhile, the issue on the causality between FDI inflows and economic growth in case of China has seldom been analyzed rigorously.Although Qin, Cagas, Quising, and He (2006) revealed that economic growth caus
5、ed investment in China, the latter was not restricted to FDI. Using a simulation, Dees (2001) showed that FDI has a long-run effect on output. The current study tests whether or not increase in FDI caused increase in economic growth of China with a cointegration test procedure allowing for different
6、 orders of integration and the Granger causality test using stationary data. 2. Factual background The investment atmosphere in China had not been friendly to foreign investors until 1978. A new policy towards foreign investment allowing foreign firms to operate in China was proclaimed in 1979, whic
7、h granted foreign investment a legal status in China (Chen et al., 1995: 692). The Special Economic Zones (SEZs) were established in the coastal areas, which granted the investors administrative support and tax benefits like profit tax reduction (Park, 2002: 21). The decision to open up China to the
8、 world economy was formally included in the 1982 state constitution. In 1984, the concept of SEZs was extended to another fourteen coastal cities and Hainan Island. In 1985, development triangles were established for the encouragement of foreign investment. Several investment incentives were provide
9、d to the SEZs (Chen et al., 1995). Despite such measures, the amount of FDI inflows was not substantial. Since Deng Xiaopings Southern Trip in 1992, China began to strengthen the market econ- omy. Preferential taxation schemes were provided to foreign investors as well (Park, 2002: 23). Consequently
10、, FDI flows into China began to increase substantially in 1992. In late 1997, China introduced various measures to attract FDI, including import tariff reductions and began to pro- vide preferential tax measure to the finance sector in 1999 (Park, 2002: 2630). Although China attracted huge amount of
11、 FDI inflows, the cumulative FDI amount per capita was only US$ 200 in 1998, for instance, which was lower than those of most other transition economies. 3. Empirical evidence on the causality between FDI and economic growth Alguacil, Cuadros, and Orts (2002) examined the Granger causality from expo
12、rts and FDI to output in Mexico. Their empirical evidence supported not only the export-led growth hypothesis but also the existence of an FDI-led growth relationship. Basu, Chakraborty, and Reagle (2003) found the bi-directional causality between FDI and GDP for open economies, while, for closed ec
13、onomies, although causality was bi-directional in the short run, it ran mainly from growth to FDI in the long run. Cuadros, Orts, and Alguacil (2004) examined both the export-led growth hypothesis and the FDI-growth nexus in Mexico, Brazil and Argentina. Their results based on the Johansen cointegra
14、tion test and Granger causality test suggested it to be important to consider both exports and FDI to ascertain the benefits associated with the outward orientation. To examine the causal relationship between FDI inflows and economic growth in China, this section uses the annual data for China durin
15、g the period 19832001. The augmented DickeyFuller tests show that the levels of FDI inflows and real economic growth rates are not stationary at 5 percent level of significance. Optimal lags are chosen by Akaikes final prediction error (FPE) criterion. FDI and real GDP growth rate are revealed to be
16、 integrated of order two and one, respectively, at 5 percent level of significance. The existence of a long-run equilibrium relation- ship among the concerned non-stationary variables is examined by Pesaran and Shins (1999) autoregressive, distributed lags model, which allows to test the cointegrati
17、ng relationship among the underlying variables of different orders of integration with small sample sizes. It estimates the following model and calculates the F-statistics of the lagged variables, FDI and real GDP growth rate expressed in terms of Y. where d in front of the variables under considera
18、tion and w denote the first differenced forms and the conventionally assumed error term, respectively. Data for FDI inflows and real GDP growth rate are taken from Park (2002) and IMF, International Financial Statistics Yearbook 2003, respectively. The null hypothesis in Pesaran and Shins (1999) tes
19、t is the non-existence of a long-run equi-librium relationship among the variables, which can be denoted as H0 : h1 = h2 = 0, against the alternative hypothesis that each of hi is not zero. Assuming the lag number to be one in the first differenced forms of the concerned variables in Eq. (1), the ca
20、lculated F2,9 statistics, 2.324, is not significant at any reasonable level of significance. Increasing the lag number up to four in the first differenced form of the concerned variables in Eq. (1) does not change the overall results qualitatively. Since the cointegration tests reveal that there doe
21、s not exist any long-run equilibrium relation- ship, I use the Granger causality test based on the first differenced data for real economic growth rate and the second differenced data for FDI inflows to reveal the causal relationship between the former and the latter. Table 2 shows the results of th
22、e Granger causality tests, where the number of lags are chosen by Akaikes FPE criterion. According to Table 2, the null hypothesis that FDI inflow does not cause real economic growth rate is not rejected at any reasonable level of significance, which is intuitively plausible in the sense that, altho
23、ugh FDI inflows were not so substantial in the 1980s, the Chinese economy already recorded very rapid economic growth in the same period. Meanwhile, there are evidences that economic growth caused FDI inflows. That is, the null hypothesis that the former does not cause the latter is rejected at 5 or
24、 10 percent level of significance. It means that the rapid economic growth of China since economic reform attracted foreign capital to realize profits in the rapidly expanding and promising market. 4. Conclusion For the past rapid economic growth process, China has attracted huge amount of FDI. Alth
25、ough the causality between FDI inflows and real economic growth has important policy implications, it has seldom been analyzed with respect to China. The current study examines the concerned issue using Pesaran and Shins (1999) small sample cointegration test procedure allowing for different orders
26、of integration and the Granger causality tests. The empirical results show that FDI inflows have not caused real economic growth in China, but the latter is revealed to have caused the former. It implies that it would not be necessary for the Chinese government to provide various types of tax or fin
27、ancial incentives to attract foreign investors. Even without incentives to FDI, FDI inflows are expected to continue due to rapid economic growth. Up to now, reasons other than FDI inflows, for instance, export promotion as well as guaranteeing private property rights and smooth transition might hav
28、e been more important in explaining rapid economic growth of China. Building efficient institutions not wasting resources would be necessary to lead FDI inflows to economic growth. 译文 外商直接投资的流入与中国经济的增长 资料来源 :科学指南 。 32 卷， 1 期， 2010 年 作者： Mah,Jai 1.简介 人们常常认为，外商直接投资的流入是发展中国家经济迅猛增长的强劲驱动力之一。然而历史证据却是喜忧参半。
29、在所谓的亚洲四小龙中，香港和新加坡成功地吸引了数额巨大的外商直接投资；但是，韩国和台湾并没有像它们一样吸引这么多的外商直接投资。自从 1979 年改革开放以来，中国的经济增长率显著提高。例如：在 1979 年到 2001 年间，中国国内生产总值的实际年平均增长率高达 8.3%。与此同时，中国实施积极的引资政策，吸引外商直接投资的大规模涌入。进入中国的外商直接投资总额从 1983年的 9亿美元到 2001年的 469亿美元。有学者在 1995 年评价说：外商直接投资通过资本的不断充实和出口的持续顺差促进了中国经济的高速增长。同时，对于外商直接投资的流入情况和中国经济快速增长的因果关系问题，却很少
30、有学者对其进行系统地研究分析。虽然，有学者通过数据调查研究表明，中国经济的飞速增长导致外国投资的大量涌入，而这种投资并不仅限于外商直接投资。德什在 2001 年运用一个简单的模型表明了外商直接投资对一国 的产品输出具有长期的影响。 2.事实背景 从 1978 年开始，中国的投资环境对外国投资者变得友好起来。一个面向外国投资者的新的政策开始出台，那个政策授予了外商投资者在中国投资的合法地位。并且中国开始在沿海设立经济特区，给予那些在特区进行投资的外国投资者们以税收和政策上的便利和优惠，比如税收的减免等。这个将中国经济向全世界开放的政策在 1982 年被正式纳入中国的宪法。在 1984 年，中国其
31、他的14 个沿海城市和海南岛都被划为经济特区。到 1985 年，中国沿海建立了三角形的区域发展模式，极大地鼓励了外国商人在中国的投资。 特别是对在经济特区投资的外国商人，中国政府提供了十分优惠的税收政策，吸引大量的外商直接投资涌入中国，虽然这些措施在一开始并没有发挥出太大的作用。自从邓小平于 1992 年进行南巡后，中国政府开始注重市场经济的发展。中国优惠的税收政策给外国投资者提供了一个极佳的投资环境。因此，进入中国的外商直接投资从 1992 年开始大幅度的增加。在 1997 年年底，中国政府不断出台了各种政策以吸引外商来华投资，包括降低外国进口商品的关税税率等，并在 1999 年开始实施 西
32、部大开发战略 ，以吸引更多的外资。虽然中国吸引了大量外商直接投资的流入，但是，到 1998 年，中国的外商直接投资累计人均占有量仅为 200美元，举例来说，这比其他大多数的经济体都要低。 3.关于外商直接投资的实证研究与中国经济快速增长的因果关系 有学者在 2002 年以墨西哥的数据为例研究了格兰杰因果关系在产品输出和外商直接投资之间的作用。他们的实证研究结果不仅支持了产品出口可以拉动一国经济高速增长的假设，而且证实了外商直接投资对一国的产品出口和经济增长也是具有带动作用的。还有学者在 2003 年找到了在开放的经济体中外商直接投资与 国民生产总值之间的双向因果关系，同时，对于封闭的经济体，虽
33、然外商直接投资与国民生产总值的因果关系也是双向的，但是，在短时期内，它们的关系却是定向的。从长远来看，主要是经济的高速增长促进了外商直接投资的大量涌入。有学者在 2004 年以墨西哥、阿根廷和巴西的数据研究了出口导向型增长假说与外商直接投资增长之间的关系。他们的研究结论是建立在Johansen 协整检验和格兰杰因果检验的基础上的，他们认为同时考虑出口与外商直接投资，能对外向型经济体的经济增长带来一定的好处。协整检验表明，外商直接投资的增长与一国经济的增长不 存在任何长期的均衡关系。我采用了格兰杰因果检验的模型，得出一国的实际经济增长率与外商直接投资的流入是有一定的关系的。这意味着，自 1979
34、 年改革开放以来，中国经济的快速增长与中国政府陆续出台优惠的面向外商的税收和财政政策，吸引了大规模的外资是分不开的。 总之，外商直接投资已经并将继续发挥其集聚经济效应，在对中国的经济增长速度、方式、质量和效率产生带来越来越重大的影响的同时，也会对地区差距产生一些负面的影响。从某种程度上来讲，这与中国区域经济的发展历程和对外开放的步伐是一致的。要改变这种区域经济发展呈现的非收敛 态势，中国面临着很强的路径依赖，这是绝对不可能一蹴而就的。 4.结论 在过去的经济快速增长的历程中，中国已经吸引了大量的外商直接投资。虽然外商直接投资的流入量与中国经济实际增长的因果关系还包含了一定的政策因素的影响，但是
35、中国学者仍然很少对其进行系统的理论分析。本文用一个简单的协整检验考察了外商直接投资的流入和中国经济增长的因果关系，小样本协整检验。实证结果显示，自从改革开放以来，外商直接投资的流入没有引起经济的增长，但是经济的增长导致外商直接投资的大量流入。这意味着中国政府没有必要提高太多的税收和财政鼓励政 策来吸引不同类型的外国商人的涌入。即使没有这些鼓励外商直接投资的优惠政策和措施，外商直接投资涌入中国的数量预计将随着中国经济的持续高速增长而不断增加。截至目前，因为其他原因导致的外商直接投资的流入，例如，促进产品出口的政策和保证个人拥有私有财产的平等权利，更可能是中国经济快速增长的重要原因。中国有必要建立一个高效运作的机构来正确引导外商直接投资的流入方向，以期更好地促进中国经济的增长。
