1、 外文翻译 原文 Shift to a low carbon society through energy systems design Material Source: SCIENCE CHINA Technological Sciencess Author: Toshihiko Nakata, Mikhail Rodionov, Diego Silva ,Joni Jupesta 1 Introduction Global environmental degradation is one of the serious threats facing humankind as a result
2、 of its expanding activities around the world. Along with the development of society, vast quantities of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have been discharged into the atmosphere, namely carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and other non-CO2 gases. Energy activities are the main source of anthropogenic GHG emission
3、s and they represented 61% of total global GHG emissions in the year 2000. Approximately 30% of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect can be attributed to non-CO2 GHGs. Rising concern about the impact of climate change has led to the definition of long-term sustainability of society looking forward to
4、 the reduction of GHGs. This interpretation of sustainable development has been termed the “low carbon society” (LCS). The sustainable development concept,introduced by the Brundtland Commission in 1987,refers to “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of fu
5、ture generations to meet their own needs”. 2 Energy systems for a low carbon society 2.1 Low carbon societys concepts GHGs emission reduction targets have been set under local, national, and global initiatives. The Kyoto Protocol, which was established under the UNFCCC in 1997, set GHG emission redu
6、ction targets by the year 2012 for industrialized nations. Presently, environmental concerns are given a higher priority, and are directly linked to the concept of sustainable development. The views towards sustainable development have been broadened in order to consider the impact that a certain de
7、velopment path may have on society. Not only impact on the economic structure and environment, but also living conditions of people comprising a society are included. Poverty and equity are factors that cannot be detached from the concept of sustainable development. The future vision of development
8、requires a more comprehensive or holistic interpretation of society. Therefore, future decisions related with utilization of energy must consider economic, environmental, and energy dimensions, driven by the achievement of a society less dependent on carbon emitting energy sources. Other terms are a
9、lso used to describe this idea, such as low carbon economy, energy decarbonization, and carbonless economy. The realization of the LCS involves measures across several or multiple sectors and activities of the economy. These activities can be categorized as energy related and non-energy related acti
10、vities. GHG emissions from energy related activities, resulting mainly from the combustion of fossil fuels for heat supply, electricity generation and transport, account for around 60% of global emissions. Among the latter group of activities, changes in land use and deforestation are the most relev
11、ant examples. The IPCC reports describe such activities as the source of nearly 30% of global GHG emissions. With respect to energy related activities, the LCS vision has been set on targets for the reduction of energy consumption and carbon intensity of energy carriers, energy efficiency improvemen
12、ts, and capture and storage of CO2 emissions. 2.2 Energy systems structure The alternatives to mitigate GHG emissions from energy related activities are the object of energy policies and energy systemsdesign. The supply of primary energy through energy resources represents the supply side of energy
13、systems. Energy resources can be separated into three main categories: fossil fuels, nuclear resources, and renewable resources. Currently, the worlds energy supply is largely based on fossil fuels. These energy resources exist in limited quantities, and their combustion is considered one of the mai
14、n causes of climate change. Several different alternatives exist in the present in order to realize the vision of the LCS. The inclusions of alternative sources of energy, such as biomass and wastes, are fundamental choices from the supply side. Renewable energy technologies represent the core of al
15、ternatives regarding energy conversion technologies. Demand side measures focused on the improvement of energy efficiency and more careful use of energy. The realization of the LCS involves shift from conventional to low carbon energy technologies. Analyzing the possibility of the transition to the
16、LCS and the way this transition may be achieved in the future is a complex task for decision-making in energy planning. The assessment and design of energy systems can be performed by means of energy models based on mathematical formulations representing the interactions of the multiple components o
17、f the energy system. These models can give more credibility to proposals targeting the mitigation of GHGs. 3 Systems approach and energy modelling for a LCS 3.1 Systems approach for energy systems design The basic concept of systems approach was first proposed in 1956 by the biologist von Bertalanff
18、ys article “General systems theory”. A systems thinking approach, or systems approach is fundamentally different from that of traditional forms of analysis. Systems thinking based on systems theory focuses on how the matter being studied interacts with the other constituents of the system, a set of
19、elements that interact to produce certain behaviour of which it is a part. 3.2 Examples of energy models for the LCS 3.2.1 Waste-to-energy models Waste-to-energy models highlight how wastes can be used as an important energy resource and for reducing GHG emissions. As mentioned before, waste-to-ener
20、gy technologies cannot be considered in isolation from the waste management systems. Additionally, application of WTE options for the energy systems is an advantageous way to provide renewable energy resources and decrease waste accumulation. However, most of the existent WTE models omit some import
21、ant parameters, such as the changes of energy prices, landfilling taxes, subsidies and social aspects. In addition, the issues linked to the infrastructure and public acceptance, as well as the involvement of local government and technical experts must be incorporated in WTE models. Currently, high
22、cost and low energy efficiency of the current WTE facilities are major barriers for the diffusion of WTE technologies. As a result, WTE technologies have often been unsustainable in developing countries. Thus, these technologies are expected to be primarily, but not exclusively, deployed in the deve
23、loped countries. 3.2.2 Models considering clean coal technologies Clean coal technologies include super critical, ultra super critical and integrated gasification combined cycle. Among these CCTs, IGCC offers the highest efficiency and environmental performance at lower costs. Furthermore, capturing
24、 CO2 emissions from coal power plants and storing them in underground reservoirs or in the sea bed, by means of carbon capture and storage technologies, is a future alternative to mitigate emissions. Energy models considering CCTs can support lo ng-term energy planning in countries with a high depen
25、dence on coal, showing the impact of these advanced technologies to help realize lowered carbon emissions. The following section gives an overview of the various types of energy economics models which consider CCTs. 3.2.3 Transportation sector models The transportation sector will change significant
26、ly in the future due to technology development and customer preference. Pushed by resource scarcity and climate change concerns, transportation modes will shift gradually into higher efficiency vehicles and carbonless emission. The automotive industries have already developed new technologies such a
27、s hybrid, fuel cell and biofuel based vehicles to accommodate to the changing market demand. While biofuel in medium term has limitation due to land allocation, low carbon vehicles have difficulty to penetrate the transportation market due to higher cost, lack of infrastructure and policy to support
28、 this technology. Technology learning through R&D has possibility to deliver this technology into lower unit costs and higher efficiency. The infrastructure for low carbon vehicles depends on other stakeholders besides the automotive industry, such as other industries. The policy in terms of subsidy
29、 and tax will help to shift the society into low carbon oriented technology. 3.3.4 Rural energy models Realizing the low carbon society in developing countries must consider the most relevant features of energy systems in these countries. These features include the significant share of traditional b
30、iomass such as agricultural wastes and charcoal, partial access to electricity, large size of the informal economy, a large income gap, contrasting differences between urban and rural areas, among others. In particular, access to cleaner and efficient forms of energy in rural areas is a factor of ma
31、jor concern to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. Currently in rural areas there are more than 2 billion people relying on traditional biomass, and over 1.3 billion people without access to electricity. 4 Conclusions The potential impact of climate change due to emissions from energy activiti
32、es in forthcoming decades can be minimized driving development towards a low carbon path as described by the LCS vision. The feasibility of this vision depends on how the energy system is designed. Energy models help to clarify the effectiveness and applicability of technologies included in the syst
33、em design, as well as the resulting impacts on aspects of diverse nature, starting with those linked to the 3Es. Based on this it is possible to evaluate the needs in research and development and the barriers for integrating innovative technologies. Model applications studying the utilization of was
34、tes as alternative energy resources show that system designs must integrate with MSW management systems. The double role of MSW as fuels and materials that can be recycled leads to a broader range of technologies for their treatment. Schemes for the economic valuation of GHGs emission reductions pro
35、vided by WTE technologies together with the technological progress are important for the diffusion of these technologies, especially in developing countries. Penetration of clean coal technologies showed by model applications is strongly linked to technology learning. The large investment entailed f
36、or the introduction of these technologies can be balanced with the significant emission reductions that can be obtained by means of market mechanisms like carbon taxes. Such measures are crucial for effective use of CCTs in developing countries. The feasibility of shifting to cleaner fuels and vehic
37、les in the transportation sector is suggested by energy models. Suitable alternatives include biofuels for the mid-term, and vehicles using fuel cells and hybrid technologies for the long-term. Barriers to the penetration of low carbon alternatives can be overcome considering technological progress
38、and the application of taxes. Energy models for rural energy in developing countries need to expand their scope and reliability. Model applications for the design of energy systems linked to the achievement of factors linked with the MDGs are scarce. They show how renewable technologies and shifting
39、 from traditional fuels can bring along benefits related to the LCS and human development. The output from studies using energy models, though useful for assessing the feasibility of energy systems in alternative scenarios, should not be assumed as certain forecast. Instead, energy models help to ra
40、ise the uncertainties surrounding the effective design of energy systems considering impacts on the global environment. The credibility of models can be enhanced with a good quality of researchs approach, methodology and data. This is especially important when addressing the LCS targets in energy sy
41、stem design because of the long-term nature of the LCS vision. Therefore, models should not be understood as tools for restraining decision making, but rather be taken as supporting tools to obtain a clear image for assessment of the alternatives available for policy making. 译文 通过能源系统向低碳社会转变 资料来源 :
42、中国技术科学 作者： Toshihiko Nakata, Mikhail Rodionov, Diego Silva ,Joni Jupesta 1 导言 全球环境的恶化是人类不断 进行世界范围内的扩张 行为的结果，现已成为一种对 人类的严重威胁。随着社会的不断发展，大量的温室气体（ GHGs）已经进入大气层，也就是所谓的二氧化碳（ CO2），沼气和其他非二氧化碳气体。能源活动是 温室气体排放的主要来源，而且在 2000 年共产生了 61%的全球温室气体的排放。 而且 只有大约 30%左右的人将 温室气体的结果归因于非二氧化碳温室气体。 2 关于低碳社会 能源系统 的研究 2.1 低碳社会的概
43、念 减少温室气体排放已经成为 局部 地 区 、国家 以及全球倡议的主要目标。在气候变化框架公约的基础上 ，京都议定书 创建于 1997 年，并为工业化国家制定了 到 2012 年为止的 减少温室气体排放的目标。目前，对环境的关注已经成为 世界 首要任务，并且直接与可持续发展有关。为了 使社会稳固 发展 ，可持续发展的概念已经越来越广泛了， 不仅仅影响了 社会 经济结构和环境，而且还包括人类的居住条件。 同时 贫穷和公正是 不能与可持续发展的概念分离开来的。 未来的发展观点 将包括一个更全面 或整体 上的社会解释。然而，未来关于利用能源的决定必须更加经济化，环境化，并且要 把握能源尺寸，使社会的
44、发展成果较少地依赖于碳排放能源。 同时，也有其他术语 常常用到这一观点，比如低碳经济，能源脱碳和少碳经济。 对温室气体的认识包括跨越多个部门和活动 之间的经济 措施。这些活动可以被归类为能源依赖和非能源依赖的活动，主要是 通过 化石燃料的燃烧以获取热能， 或者 电量产生和运输的结果， 它们主要 占全球排放量的 60%。在后者的活动中， 将会改变 土地使用 状态的改变，甚至 造成 毁林。 IPCC 报告描述了 引起了全球 30%温室气体排放量的主要 活动。为了 减少温室气体 的排放，国家 已经制定了减少能源消耗和能源载体的碳强度， 提高 能源利用效率 和捕捉 储存二氧化碳的目标。 2.2 能源系
45、统的结构 能源政策和能源系统设计的主要目标 是在 与能源相关的活动中 找到 减少温室气体排放的替代品 。 其中，初级能源 是通过能源供应方的能源系统提供的。一般来说， 能源资源可以分为三个主要 类别 ：化石燃料，核资源和可再生能源。从供给方面来说，现在世界上的能源 主要 是通过 化石燃料 来获得，但是 这些能源的存在数量是有限的， 而 它们的燃烧 又是造成气候变化问题的主要原因。为了更好地 缓解 温室气体 的排放 ，现在 产生了 很多其他不同的替代品。 其中 替代能源资源的包裹体， 像 生物质和废物能源，是供给方面的基本选择。 而 可再生能源技术是替代产品的核心，包括有关的能源转换技术。 从需
46、求方面来说，为了缓解能源消耗问题，主要 措施 是 提高能源利用效率和更 好 地利用能源。 其中要提高的技术主要包括将 常规能源转换为低碳能源的技术。 通过对 转换温室气体的可能性和 可能实现 这种转换方式 的分析 ， 可知在 能源计划方面 ，这 是一项复杂的任务。这种对于能源系统的评估和设计是 通过 数学模型的方式来履行的，并且代表能源系统的各 方面 的相互作用关系。这些模型 将提高 缓解温室气体的目标的 可能性 。 3 关 于 缓解温室气体 系统途径和能源建模 的研究 3.1 实现能源系统设计的途径 能源系统的途径的基本概念最早 是 1956 年 由生物学家 von Bertalanffy在
47、他的文章“基本系统理论”中提出 的 。该系统认为 这种途径与传统 分析方式 是 有基本区别的。系统思维主要 是 以系统理论为基础， 以认识到 系统其他组成部分的相互作用 为重点 ， 这是 一个组成部分的基本元素 通过相互作用而产生的 特定的行为。 3.2 温室气体能源的例子 3.2.1 废物转化为能源发电的例子 废物转化为能源发电的例子 侧重于将 废物转化为重要的能源资源来发电和减少温室气体的排放。 而且将 废物转化为能源发电的技术 是 不能与废物管理系统相互分离 的 。废物转化为能源发电的应用对于提供可再生能源和减少废物的积累 来说 是一种有利的方式。 但是， 大多数废物转化的例子忽略了 其
48、中 重要的参数，比如能源价格的改变，垃圾填埋税，补贴和 其他 社会影响方面。而且，在废物转化的模型中， 研究与 基础设施和公共验收有关方面的问题 是 和当地政府与技术专家的参加一样重要 的 。如今，高成本和低能源利用率是制约废物转化的主要障 碍。 所以，很难再 在发展中国家 发展 该技术。 但是，因为 这些技术很重要， 所以不能只 在发达国家 中发展 。 3.2.2 清洁煤使用技术的模型 清洁煤技术 主要 包括超临界，超超临界核和 整体煤气联合循环 。这些技术可以以较低的成本使能源利用效率最大化并且能够保护 环境。而且，从煤能源中捕捉二氧化碳的排放量并把它们 储存在底下水库或海床上，以 这种方
49、式捕捉和储存的技术 将 可能是未来减少排放量的替代品。清洁能源技术的能源模型可以在各国 获得 长期支持主要 是 依靠煤的能源计划， 并且对 这些先进技术的影响主要是 认识到减少碳含量的排放。接下去，我们将会 采取很多 措施并且通过 思考清洁煤技术来进行能源经济。 3.2.3 交通部门模型 技术的发展以及消费者的选择，会使交通运输部门 显著地改变着未来。由于 人们 对 资源短缺和气候 恶 化 的担心 ，交通运输模式将逐步转移到 能使能源利用效率提高甚至无碳化 的车辆 的发明创造利用上 。汽车业已经 开 发 了 新技术，如混合动力，燃料电池和生物燃料的车辆行驶， 从而 适应不断变化的 市场需求 。由于土地分配，低碳车辆难以渗透到运输市场， 并且由于 成本较高， 缺乏 基础设施和政策 来 支持这项技术 ，从而 生物燃料介质具有局限性 。通过研发，这项技术很有可能使能源的利用在一 定的成本下游更高的利用效率。低碳汽车的基础设施取决于除了汽车行业以外的利益相关者，包括其他行业。而且 税收政策和补贴条款将有助于导向的技术转移到低碳社会 。 3.3.4 农村能源模式 发展中国家的低碳社会必须考虑到在 国家中 能与能源系统关系最密切 的特征。这些特
