北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)对美国纺织行业的生产活动影响的评估定性和定量相结合的方法【外文翻译】.doc
《北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)对美国纺织行业的生产活动影响的评估定性和定量相结合的方法【外文翻译】.doc》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)对美国纺织行业的生产活动影响的评估定性和定量相结合的方法【外文翻译】.doc(8页珍藏版)》请在温州文客信息科技有限公司上搜索。
1、 外文翻译 原文 An Assessment of the Impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on the U.S. Textile Industrys Production Activities: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches Material Source: Mikyung Lim. An Assessment of the Impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on the U.S
2、. Textile Industrys Production Activities: Qualitative and Quantitative ApproachesEB/OL .http:/scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-07112006-164703/, 2006.06.20 Author: Mikyung Lim ABSTRACT The implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the United States, Canada, an
3、d Mexico created a barrier-free production and trade zone in North America. Surrounding the implementation of NAFTA, a great volume of public, political, and academic attention was given to the impact of the agreement on the aging U.S. textile industry with high labor costs. The major NAFTA provisio
4、ns, the elimination of tariffs and quotas and rules of origin, were predicted to create and divert U.S. trade in textile goods and expand domestic textile production activities. Since its implementation, however, volatile macroeconomic and political environmental changes have severely interfered wit
5、h the role of NAFTA. Over ten years have passed since the implementation of NAFTA. The objectives of this research are to investigate the pattern of the U.S. textile industrys production activities under NAFTA and to determine the impact of the agreement on the industrys production activities. This
6、research consists of two parts. Part I is a qualitative analysis that investigates changes in the industrys trade and production activities under NAFTA based on the review of literature and trade and industry data. Part II of this research, a quantitative analysis, applies a normalized restricted tr
7、anslog profit model to the textile industrys production activities under the influence of NAFTA in order to identify the pattern of the industrys output supply and input demand and to determine the impact of NAFTA on the industry. The outcomes of these analyses are used to make an overall assessment
8、 of the impact of NAFTA on the U.S. textile industry and draw policy implications. The outcome of the qualitative analysis suggests NAFTA as an effective policy in expanding and regionalizing U.S. trades in textile goods and promoting domestic textile production activities in the early years of impl
9、ementation. Since the late 1990s, however, macroeconomic and political changes have dominated over the role of NAFTA, partially undoing the changes in U.S. textile trade and production activities made in the early years of the agreement. The outcome of quantitative analysis identifies the significan
10、t but negative effect of NAFTA on the U.S. textile industrys profit performance in the early years of NAFTA, probably due to intensified import competition, fall of real output prices, and numerous mill closings. Over-all, NAFTA is recognized as a short-term, transitional policy measure for the U.S.
11、 textile industry because of the limited importance of Mexico in U.S. textile trade, the short period of NAFTA implementation, and several dynamic environmental factors including exchange rate changes, U.S. signings of multiple regional trade agreements, and the emerging dominance of China in world
12、textile trade under the phase-out of the Multi-fiber Arrangement that have changed international and domestic textile market competition. Ultimately, this study concludes that a trade policy is not likely to provide a long-term solution for the survival of U.S. textile industry. Keywords: NAFTA, Tex
13、tile Industry, Economic Analysis, Textile Trade, Textile Production The U.S. Textile Industry and Market Environme nts The U.S. textile industry has evolved under the influence of advances in production technologies and changing market environments, domestic market size, and consumer demand patterns
14、. These factors have shaped the industrys nature, structure, competitive strategies, production systems, and output supply and input demand patterns. The traditional U.S. textile industry consisted of a large number of small-and medium-size family-owned firms and a small number of big firms (Amacher
15、 et al., 1991; Dickerson, 1999; U.S. Congress, 1987). Access to the large and relatively protected domestic market and the availability of advanced technologies cultivated the industrys mass production systems of relatively standardized products with long production runs. These contributed to the in
16、dustrys decreasing production costs, but limited flexibility in meeting orders of diverse sizes or differentiated products. Technological developments, along with import competition, have driven many small-and medium-size textile firms either out of business or transformed them into larger, financia
17、lly stronger firms to be able to afford innovations in manufacturing, marketing, and distribution systems. The industrys reliance on the domestic market has also prevented it from exploring export markets, isolating itself from the dynamic global market environments (Toyne, Arpan, Barnett, Ricks the
18、 pattern of U.S. textile trade in the 2000s has been mainly characterized by an import surge from China, relatively fast import growth from India/Pakistan, and moderate import growth from the EU at the expenses of Mexico, Caribbean Basin, CAFTA, sub-Saharan African, and ASEAN regions. The growth of
19、U.S. apparel trade with the Caribbean Basin region had been sustained at a moderate level in the 1990s, and has greatly improved in the 2000s under CBTPA by partially filling the gap left by declining U.S. imports from Mexico. U.S. textile imports from Caribbean Basin countries, on the other hand, h
20、ave declined. U.S. textile trade with the Andean region has increased under ATPDEA while, despite the implementation of AGOA in the 2000s, U.S. textile exports to sub-Saharan African countries have declined during the last two decades. The effects of exchange rate adjustments, import surges, and dif
21、ficult U.S. economic and political environments from the late 1990s through the 2000s have dominated the effect of NAFTA and have rapidly deteriorated U.S. textile production activities, reversing the changes in the industrys production activities that occurred during the early years of NAFTA implem
22、entation. As a result, the industrys condition was worse in the early 2000s than prior to NAFTA. Its shipments declined 18.2 percent during 1997-2003 and 5.5 percent during 1992-2003.The industrys capital investments increased until 1997 but have declined since, and its employment and production sys
23、tems have continued to shrink during the post- NAFTA period. NAFTA is known to have helped the industry maintain its employment. The principle contributing factors to shrinking textile employment are believed to be the industrys adoption of labor-saving but capital-using production technologies, Inc
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