1、 外文翻译 原文 An Assessment of the Impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on the U.S. Textile Industrys Production Activities: Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches Material Source: Mikyung Lim. An Assessment of the Impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on the U.S
2、. Textile Industrys Production Activities: Qualitative and Quantitative ApproachesEB/OL .http:/scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-07112006-164703/, 2006.06.20 Author: Mikyung Lim ABSTRACT The implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the United States, Canada, an
3、d Mexico created a barrier-free production and trade zone in North America. Surrounding the implementation of NAFTA, a great volume of public, political, and academic attention was given to the impact of the agreement on the aging U.S. textile industry with high labor costs. The major NAFTA provisio
4、ns, the elimination of tariffs and quotas and rules of origin, were predicted to create and divert U.S. trade in textile goods and expand domestic textile production activities. Since its implementation, however, volatile macroeconomic and political environmental changes have severely interfered wit
5、h the role of NAFTA. Over ten years have passed since the implementation of NAFTA. The objectives of this research are to investigate the pattern of the U.S. textile industrys production activities under NAFTA and to determine the impact of the agreement on the industrys production activities. This
6、research consists of two parts. Part I is a qualitative analysis that investigates changes in the industrys trade and production activities under NAFTA based on the review of literature and trade and industry data. Part II of this research, a quantitative analysis, applies a normalized restricted tr
7、anslog profit model to the textile industrys production activities under the influence of NAFTA in order to identify the pattern of the industrys output supply and input demand and to determine the impact of NAFTA on the industry. The outcomes of these analyses are used to make an overall assessment
8、 of the impact of NAFTA on the U.S. textile industry and draw policy implications. The outcome of the qualitative analysis suggests NAFTA as an effective policy in expanding and regionalizing U.S. trades in textile goods and promoting domestic textile production activities in the early years of impl
9、ementation. Since the late 1990s, however, macroeconomic and political changes have dominated over the role of NAFTA, partially undoing the changes in U.S. textile trade and production activities made in the early years of the agreement. The outcome of quantitative analysis identifies the significan
10、t but negative effect of NAFTA on the U.S. textile industrys profit performance in the early years of NAFTA, probably due to intensified import competition, fall of real output prices, and numerous mill closings. Over-all, NAFTA is recognized as a short-term, transitional policy measure for the U.S.
11、 textile industry because of the limited importance of Mexico in U.S. textile trade, the short period of NAFTA implementation, and several dynamic environmental factors including exchange rate changes, U.S. signings of multiple regional trade agreements, and the emerging dominance of China in world
12、textile trade under the phase-out of the Multi-fiber Arrangement that have changed international and domestic textile market competition. Ultimately, this study concludes that a trade policy is not likely to provide a long-term solution for the survival of U.S. textile industry. Keywords: NAFTA, Tex
13、tile Industry, Economic Analysis, Textile Trade, Textile Production The U.S. Textile Industry and Market Environme nts The U.S. textile industry has evolved under the influence of advances in production technologies and changing market environments, domestic market size, and consumer demand patterns
14、. These factors have shaped the industrys nature, structure, competitive strategies, production systems, and output supply and input demand patterns. The traditional U.S. textile industry consisted of a large number of small-and medium-size family-owned firms and a small number of big firms (Amacher
15、 et al., 1991; Dickerson, 1999; U.S. Congress, 1987). Access to the large and relatively protected domestic market and the availability of advanced technologies cultivated the industrys mass production systems of relatively standardized products with long production runs. These contributed to the in
16、dustrys decreasing production costs, but limited flexibility in meeting orders of diverse sizes or differentiated products. Technological developments, along with import competition, have driven many small-and medium-size textile firms either out of business or transformed them into larger, financia
17、lly stronger firms to be able to afford innovations in manufacturing, marketing, and distribution systems. The industrys reliance on the domestic market has also prevented it from exploring export markets, isolating itself from the dynamic global market environments (Toyne, Arpan, Barnett, Ricks the
18、 pattern of U.S. textile trade in the 2000s has been mainly characterized by an import surge from China, relatively fast import growth from India/Pakistan, and moderate import growth from the EU at the expenses of Mexico, Caribbean Basin, CAFTA, sub-Saharan African, and ASEAN regions. The growth of
19、U.S. apparel trade with the Caribbean Basin region had been sustained at a moderate level in the 1990s, and has greatly improved in the 2000s under CBTPA by partially filling the gap left by declining U.S. imports from Mexico. U.S. textile imports from Caribbean Basin countries, on the other hand, h
20、ave declined. U.S. textile trade with the Andean region has increased under ATPDEA while, despite the implementation of AGOA in the 2000s, U.S. textile exports to sub-Saharan African countries have declined during the last two decades. The effects of exchange rate adjustments, import surges, and dif
21、ficult U.S. economic and political environments from the late 1990s through the 2000s have dominated the effect of NAFTA and have rapidly deteriorated U.S. textile production activities, reversing the changes in the industrys production activities that occurred during the early years of NAFTA implem
22、entation. As a result, the industrys condition was worse in the early 2000s than prior to NAFTA. Its shipments declined 18.2 percent during 1997-2003 and 5.5 percent during 1992-2003.The industrys capital investments increased until 1997 but have declined since, and its employment and production sys
23、tems have continued to shrink during the post- NAFTA period. NAFTA is known to have helped the industry maintain its employment. The principle contributing factors to shrinking textile employment are believed to be the industrys adoption of labor-saving but capital-using production technologies, Inc
24、luding the rapid replacement of old shuttle looms with advanced shuttleless, air-jet looms in the 1990s and volatile exchange rate-related import surges and mill closings. Overall, the U.S. trade pattern during the last two decades appears to relatively conform to the design of U.S. trade policies w
25、ith the dominant effect of NAFTA in the 1990s.In the 2000s, changes in international and domestic market environments and U.S. trade patterns have partially reversed the trade regionalization of U.S. textile trade shaped in the 1990s.As a result, the shares of East Asian, ASEAN, Andean, sub-Saharan
26、African, and EU regions in U.S. textile exports have declined during the last two decades compared to the pre-NAFTA levels. A similar trend has happened to U.S. textile production activities that had been expanded in the early years of NAFTA up to 1997, but started deteriorating since. As a result,
27、after the ten-year implementation of NAFTA, the industrys condition has worsened compared to that of the pre-NAFTA period. Current and Future Strategies for the U.S. Textile Industry The future of the U.S. textile industry is not clear at this point due to many foreseeable challenges and risks. Inte
28、rnationally, the industry faces increasing trade liberalization under the MFA phase-out, U.S. signings of multiple RTAs and the expansion of North American Free Trade Area, global spread of RTAs, and the rise of China as a major player in world trade in textile goods. Domestically, along with divers
29、ifying consumer demand, the industry undergoes disappearing apparel production, domestic textile and apparel manufactures and retailers increasing reliance on international sourcing, and increasing import penetration of traditional U.S. textile markets of mass-produced, standardized textile goods. T
30、he U.S. textile industry at an aggregate level does not seem to have a bright future because of the conditions described earlier. At the individual firm level, however, the impact of NAFTA may have varied to great extents depending on the types of their product offerings, market positioning, competi
31、tive strategies, and sensitivity toward changing market environments. For progressive, export-oriented firms, NAFTA may have been an opportunity to tap into the Mexican market as observed in the rapidly increased U.S. textile exports to Mexico in the 1990s.To domestic market-oriented firms, NAFTA ma
32、y have been a threat of empowering Mexican competitors in the U.S. market and reducing their market shares. Textile enterpreneurs shrewdness and strategic adaptability to changing domestic and global market environments will determine their future. Facing its continuous shrinking size and possible d
33、elocalization in the future, the U.S. textile industry increasingly needs to shift away from traditional textile goods and production systems to the new generations of textile goods and production systems to avoid import competition, serve newly emerging market demands, and to sensitively accommodat
34、e small changes in market environments and demands. This research suggests three potential dimensions for future U.S. textile production activities:1)liberation from the production-oriented competitive strategy,2)shift to push and pull(niche )marketing, and 3)development of global textile and appare
35、l supply Chain. 译文 北美自由贸易协定（ NAFTA）对美国纺织行业的生产活动影响的评估定性和定量相结合的方法 资料来源 : Mikyung Lim. 北美自由贸易协定（ NAFTA）对美国纺织行业的生 产 活 动 影 响 的 评 估 ： 定 性 和 定 量 相 结 合 的 方 法 E B /O L . http:/scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-07112006-164703/, 2006.06.20 作者： Mikyung Lim 摘要 ： 在美国、加拿大和墨西哥三国之间执行北美自由贸易协议 (NAFTA)，为其创造了一个北美
36、无障碍生产和贸易区。围绕着北美自由贸易协定：其对衰老美国的纺织品行业提供高劳动成本的影响受到了大量的公共、政治和普遍关注。主要的北美自由贸易协定规定，消除关税和配额和的原产地规则，被认为将创造和转移美国贸易在纺织品和扩大国内纺织品生产活动。然而，自从开始实施宏观经济和政 治环境的变化已大大妨碍了北美自由贸易协定的角色。 离北美自由贸易协定得实施已过去十年。本文研究旨在探讨在北美自由贸易协定下美国纺织品生产的模式和对美国纺织品行业的生产活动的影响。本研究由两部分组成。第一部分是一个定性分析， ,在回顾文献和贸易和工业数据基础上研究在北美自由贸易协定下行业和生产活动的变化。第二部分是运用定量分析，
37、运用归一化限制利润模型来分析北美自由贸易协定对纺织行业的生产活动的影响，以此来确认行业总产出的供应和输入需求的格局，确定北美自由贸易协定影响的行业。这些分析的结果是用来全面评估北美自由贸 易协定对美国纺织工业的影响和绘制与政策的联系。 定性分析的结果表明：北美自由贸易协定是一种有效的政策，在扩张和美国纺织品贸易地区化及促进早期美国国内纺织生产活动的实施是有效的。自从上世纪 90 年代末以来，宏观经济和政治变化的角色一直主导着北美自由贸易协定 ,这一部分在美国纺织品贸易和生产活动中的变化已在早期的协定中。定量分析的结果显著，但早期的北美自由贸易协定对美国的赢利业绩的纺织工业所造成的负面效应，很可
38、能是由于进口竞争加剧，实际产出价格下降，许多工厂关闭。总而言之，北美自由贸易协定被认为是美国纺织品行业短期 、过渡性政策措施，因为墨西哥在美国纺织品贸易中有限的重要性、短暂的北美自由贸易协定实施条件和几项动态环境因素，包括汇率变化，美国签约多个区域贸易协定，新兴主导世界纺织品贸易在中国撤销的，多边协定已经改变了国际、国内纺织市场竞争，使其立于不败之地。最后，本研究得出结论，一个贸易政策是不可能为美国纺织工业的存活提供一个长远的解决办法。 关键词：北美自由贸易协定；纺织业；经济分析；纺织品贸易；纺织品 美国纺织品行业和市场环境 产品生产技术的进步和市场环境的变化影响了美国纺织工业在国内的市场大小
39、和消费需求模式。这些 因素塑造了行业的性质、结构、竞争策略、生产系统、输出供应和输入需求模式。传统的美国的纺织品行业包括大量的小型和中型家族公司和少量的大公司（ Amacher 苏达权等， 1991 年成立， Dickerson， 1999，美国国会， 1987）。进入大型和相对保护国内市场和先进的技术，培养行业的大规模的相对标准化产品和生产运行长的生产系统。这些导致了行业的生产成本降低，但还是满足订单的有限不同尺寸或分化产品。科技发展了，进口竞争也随着激烈，使得许多小型和中型的纺织企业或者是商业把他们自己变成更大型的企业，经济实力较强企业能 做到支付制作创新、销售、分销系统所需的经费。依靠国
40、内市场的行业也被阻止探索出口市场，从动态的全球市场环境隔离本身（ Toyne, Arpan, Barnett, Ricks & Shimp, 1983) 结论 北美自由贸易协定对美国的纺织品贸易和生产的影响：定性评估 北美自由贸易协定签署是美国政府从 19 世纪 80 年代中期开始，其政策由多边主义转变为地方主义以来，签订过的好的协议。该协议提供了一个无障碍生产和北美贸易区，为北美公司提高 企业环境。实施协议以来 10 年多过去了。定性分析（第一部分）的结果表明美国纺织品贸易在北美和早期一体化北美自由贸易协定实施下，在亚洲，欧洲，撒哈拉以南的非洲和安地斯地区有经验的快速扩张。随着装运和资本投资
41、到 1997 年，美国纺织品行业的生产活动也在这一时期得到了扩充。 20 世纪 90 年代主要影响美国的纺织品贸易和生产模式的是北美自由贸易协定，被认为是墨西哥的扩展股东大会活动和服装的墨西哥组装工厂输入要求，美国对纺织品货物的内需增加，为增长的美国经济，墨西哥增收从不实施北美自由贸易协定国家进口产品的进口关税。 自从上 世纪 90 年代末以来，改变宏观经济和政治环境的出现严重地限制了北美自由贸易协定的成员国通过削弱价格歧视效应限制进口协议的不实施北美自由贸易协定国家。在 1997 年末到 1998 年亚洲货币贬值影响下，中国被低估的货币和世贸成员，撤销硕士，以及美国和墨西哥的衰退；美国的纺织
42、品贸易模式主要是本世纪以来进口激增的特点，从中国进口增长相对较快从印度 /巴基斯坦 ,，适量的进口增长由欧盟在费用的墨西哥：加勒比流域，中国 -东盟自由贸易区，撒哈拉以南非洲和东盟地区。二十世纪九十年代，美国服装外贸的增长和加勒比流域地区温和的持续的水平 ，在本世纪以来，极大地改善了由 CBTPA部分灌装留下的间隙从美国进口的食品 (确实 )下降墨西哥。美国的纺织品进口加勒比流域国家 ,另一方面 ,有所下降。尽管 ATPDEA 而增加的实施在 AGOA 进入新千年，美国的纺织品贸易的安第斯地区下，撒哈拉以南的非洲国家在过去的二十年，美国的纺织品出口减少了。 汇率调整的影响，进口波涛汹涌和困难的
43、美国经济和政治环境与上世纪 90年代后期通过 21 世纪初的影响一直主导着北美自由贸易协定，早期的北美自由贸易协定的执行情况使美国的纺织品生产活动急剧恶化的变化，反转行业的生产活动发生了变化， 。然而，这个行业比以前北美自由贸易协定的情况更糟的是在本世纪初。它的货物在 1997-2003 期间总体下降百分之 18.2%， 在 1992-2003期间下降 5.5%。直到 1997 年行业的投资才有所增加，但总体还是下降的，其就业和生产系统在前北美自由贸易协定的时期已经持续减少。北美自由贸易协定是已知有协助业界在维持其就业。原则对于微型因素就业被认为是纺织工业的收养的节约劳力的但核心生产技术，包括
44、快速更换旧航天飞机以先进的无梭织机，喷气织机上世纪 90 年代和挥发性交换与税率有关的进口浪和磨结账。 总的来说，在过去的二 十年里，美国的贸易模式似乎比较符合美国贸易政策设计的关键作用在 90 年代北美自由贸易协议。 20 世纪以来，通过改变国际、国内两个市场环境和美国的贸易模式的贸易划分部分的扭转美国纺织品贸易形状在 20 世纪 90 年代因此，其股份东亚、东南亚及安第斯，撒哈拉以南非洲以及欧盟地区在美国的纺织品出口在近二十年来比前北美自由贸易协定水平下降。类似的趋势已经在早期的北美自由贸易协定截至 1997 年发生在美国的纺织品生产活动也随之拓展，但从那时开始恶化。长此以往，十年后实施北
45、美自由贸易协定，这个产业的条件相比早期北美自由贸易时期更恶 化。 美国纺织工业当前和未来的 策略 鉴于许多可预见的挑战和风险，美国纺织行业的未来还不明朗。在国际上，我们的电影业增加贸易自由化下，美国的签约撤销硕士多 RTAs 和扩展的北美自由贸易区，全球传播的 RTAs，全球贸易纺织品在中国的崛起中扮演主要的角色。在国内，随着消费者需求的多元化，公司共同出资组建的合资企业，服装生产消失，国内纺织服装制造商和零售商越来越依靠国际采购、增加进口渗透传统的美国的纺织品市场的大量生产、标准化的纺织品。 因先前描述的环境，美国纺织品行业总体水平看起来前途不是很光明。然而在个体公司水平 ，北美自由贸易协定
46、的影响可能根据不同类型的范围，根据他们的产品竞争策略、市场定位、和对市场环境变化的敏感性的不同而可能有变化。在九十年代，对于外向型企业，北美自由贸易协定也许是一个能够进入墨西哥市场的机会，快速增长的观察到美国的纺织品出口到墨西哥。国内市场公司，北美自由贸易协定可能在美国市场威胁授权墨西哥竞争对手和减少他们的市场占有率。纺织机灵和适应性的战略，改变国内和全球市场竞争环境，决定自己的未来。 面对着连续收缩尺寸和在未来可能的非内国化，美国的纺织品行业更加需要转变减少传统的纺织品生产系统到新一代的 纺织品生产系统，以避免进口竞争、服务新兴市场需求，小变化并敏锐地适应市场竞争环境和需求。本研究提出三个潜在尺寸的未来美国的纺织品生产活动： 1）解放离不开生产型竞争策略； 2）转移到推拉（利基）市场营销 ,； 3）开发全球纺织品服装供应链。
