数理经济学研究 2006年第1辑(总第1辑).doc

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1、1Research of Mathematical EconomicsNo. 1 2011CONTENTSThe Effect of Income and Interest Rates on the Consuming Behavior of Chinese Residents-Based on the Comparative Analysis on Statistics of Chinese Urban and Rural AreasZhang Dongyang (5)The Influence of Wealth Gap on Chinas Economic GrowthGuo Yumei

2、 (21)Bundling Sales of Information Goods: Models and AnalysisShi Fangning (31)The Introduction and Applications of RDEU HypothesisWang Bo, Hong Beiyun (54)Income Targets and Labor Supply Elasticities: Evidence from China Health and Nutrition SurveyZhang Luezhao (72)A Dynamic Model of the Optimal Car

3、bon Tax and Sustainable DevelopmentFeng Junlong (89)A Study of Chinese Residential Electricity Demand ElasticitiesRen Junqiushi (101)The Factors that Determine a Firms Optimal Allocation of Capital Between Research and ManufacturingXu Lingjue, Wang Danna (118)A Quantitative Analysis of the Influence

4、s of Chinas Inflation to Different Asset-Holding ClassesChen Jun (134)Analysis of the Mechanism of “Dutch Disease”Wang Qizhi (161)2数理经济学研究 2011 年第 1 辑(总第 5 辑)目 录收入和利率对中国居民消费行为的影响基于中国城乡统计数据的比较分析 张冬洋 (21)贫富差距对中国经济增长的影响 郭豫媚 (47)信息产品的捆绑销售:模型与分析 施芳凝 (31)REDU 假说的介绍与应用 王 勃、洪蓓芸 (54)收入目标与劳动供给弹性:来自中国健康和营养调查的证

5、据 张略钊 (72)一个最优碳税和可持续发展的动态模型 冯焌昽 (89)中国居民电力需求的弹性探析 任君秋拾 (101)决定公司在研究与制造之间资本最优配置的因素 许龄珏、王丹娜 (118)中国通货膨胀对不同财富持有阶层影响的定量分析 陈 军 (134)荷兰病作用机制考察 王麒植 (161)3Research of Mathematical EconomicsOrganizers:Economics and Mathematics Double Bachelor ProgramRenmin University of ChinaAcademic Adviser:Yang Ruilong Liu

6、 Yuanchun Zhang Yu Liu Rui Guo Jie Wang Jinbin Zheng Xinye Chen YanbinEditorial Committee:Li Tianyou Zhang Yanhong Yu Ze Wang Xianghong Cheng Hua Yu Yihua Han SongInstruct Teacher: Cheng HuaEditorial Director:Ren Junqiushi Xu Lingjue Zhang Lingyun Wang Jue数理经济学研究编辑机构主办单位: 中国人民大学经济学数学(双学位)实验班学术顾问: 杨瑞

7、龙 刘元春 张 宇 刘 瑞 郭 杰 王晋斌 郑新业 陈彦斌编 委: 李天有 章艳红 于 泽 王湘红 程 华 虞义华 韩 松指导老师: 程 华编 辑 部: 任君秋拾 许龄珏 张凌云 王 珏4Research of Mathematical Economics No. 1 20115The Effect of Income and Interest Rates on the Consuming Behavior of Chinese Residents-Based on the Comparative Analysis on Statistics of Chinese Urban and Rura

8、l AreasZhang Dongyang(School of Economics, Renmin University of China)Abstract: This essay analyzes how to expand domestic demand and how to stimulate consumption. Based on the random walk hypothesis and permanent income hypothesis, consumers are divided into two groups, one with rational expectatio

9、ns and the other regarded as “short-sighted”. This paper uses ordinary least squares method and uses data from 2003Q1 - 2008Q2 to estimate the aggregate consumption function of Chinas urban and rural areas. The conclusion is that the number of “short-sighted” consumers in rural areas of China signif

10、icantly exceeds that in urban areas. Also, this paper suggests that lowering interest rates has a strong stimulating effect on consumption growth and verifies the parameters stability by hypothesis testing. Last, with regard to the statistics obtained through econometric model, final conclusions of

11、this essay and certain corresponding policy recommendations are given out.Keywords: Permanent Income Hypothesis, Uncertainty, Consumption, Interest Rates1. IntroductionIn 2008, the financial crisis swept the entire world including China, which imposed an extremely large impact on Chinas economy. On

12、the other hand, China has been under reform and opening-up policy for 30 years until 2008. Along with the ever-deepening reform, Chinese economy system has gradually turned from traditional planned economy to socialist market economy, from extensive to intensive. In the support of the three pillars

13、of its development investment, domestic demand and foreign trade, the entire national economy follows an orderly and stable development trend. Hence, in face of such a sudden shock, the problem of how to expand domestic demand and stimulate Chinas economy is put on core agenda once again.In the trad

14、itional researches, Keynes pointed out that national income influences consuming; The Effect of Income and Interest Rates on the Consuming Behavior of Chinese Residents-Based on the Comparative Analysis on Statistics of Chinese Urban and Rural Areas6Friedman and Modigliani put forward permanent inco

15、me hypothesis and life-cycle hypothesis respectively. These theories have been far-reaching. The basis of these theories, interest rates act as a direct means to influence national income through adjusting saving rates-lowering interest rates helps to increase the income for peoples consumption-have

16、 long been considered as an effective approach to expand domestic demand.However, from the “Ninth Five-Year” to the “Eleventh Five-Year”, a lot of scholars, such as Long Zhiming, Zhou Haoming (2000), think that Chinas economic development and consumer behavior showed some kind of “rebellion” phenome

17、non: on one hand, the economy experiences stable and fast growth and national income increases steadily; on the other hand, along with the ever-deepening reform and opening-up policy, consumer behaviors have changed dramatically, among which what worthies our particular attention is the fact that in

18、 spite of the continuously increasing saving percentage, which to some extent reflects decreasing marginal consuming propensity, consumption scale has grown slowly. In fact, it is still too early to draw the conclusion of whether interest rate adjusting has positive effect on national consumption. T

19、hus, this paper will explore the effective factors, such as interest rate and income, and their effectiveness on consumption increase.Then, the problem is raised: what is the factor that coordinates the consuming behavior with the trend of economy growth during the transition period of China? Focusi

20、ng on this phenomenon, domestic scholars have done a series of researches referring to foreign consumption theories. For instance, under a unified economic logic framework, Yuan Zhigang and Song Zheng (1999) conduct a comprehensive analysis of consuming behavior of urban residents in China in the tr

21、ansition period: based on consumption theories such as Life Cycle Hypothesis, Permanent Income Hypothesis, Precautionary Saving Theory and Liquidity Constraint, they try to find out the reason for the variation in urban consumption behavior and the way to stimulate urban household consumption. Li Ya

22、n (1999) makes use of the data from 1978 to 1998 to carry out the empirical analysis which aims to find out the role of interest rates on household savings. The transfer channel for interest rates effect on saving is wealth: the low level of income and the underdeveloped capital markets are the prim

23、ary obstacles that restrict the interest rates effect on household saving. That is to say, under the environment of low level of income and underdeveloped capital markets, wealth value and wealth gains are not sensitive to interest rates changes. Wang Hongju and Zhang Huilian (2002) put forward the

24、idea of using Research of Mathematical Economics No. 1 20117modern Western economic theory to analyze the consumption growth in China. They point out the restriction effect of Random Walk Hypothesis, Precautionary Saving Theory and Liquidity Constraint on consumption and then analyze the impacts of

25、these factors on Chinas household consumption. They conclude that Liquidity constraints depressed consumers current spending; moreover, low income, uncertainty and liquidity constraints lead to the shortsightedness of the residents. However, theoretical research in this regard focused mainly on the

26、analysis from 1999 to 2003 and few in recent years. This situation prompts us to refresh our understanding and study the problem of consumer behavior both from the perspective of theory and practice, trace the deep influencing factors behind these consumer behavior and then to give theoretical expla

27、nations as well as pragmatically measures to direct the household consuming behavior. The second part of this paper is literature review, pointing out the limitation of traditional consumption theory on explaining consumer behaviors and the feasibility of using Residents Consumption Excess Sensitivi

28、ty Hypothesis and Random Walk Hypothesis to explain and analyze the consumption problems in current China. The third section reviews the theoretical models based on Random Walk Hypothesis. The fourth part gives out the quantitative results of consumption functions about Chinas urban and rural reside

29、nts in the transition period with the 2003-2008 quarterly data on Chinas urban and rural residents. And the fifth part takes advantage of the theory and results of quantitative analysis to draw conclusions and policy recommendations are given.2. Literature ReviewConsumption function defines the rela

30、tionship between household consumption expenditure and the variables that determine the consumption. It was first proposed by Keynes (1936) in the book “Employment, Interest and Money”. Absolute Income Hypothesis suggests that peoples current consumption depends on current income and a stable functi

31、onal relationship exists between them. With the increase of income, consumption will also increase, but the increase of consumption is slower than the increase of income: consumption increment in the proportion of increased income is decreasing - that is diminishing marginal consumption propensity,

32、showed byThe Effect of Income and Interest Rates on the Consuming Behavior of Chinese Residents-Based on the Comparative Analysis on Statistics of Chinese Urban and Rural Areas8,01yYet, Duesenberry puts forward the Relative Income Hypothesis by negative the conditions of Absolute Income Hypothesis.

33、In his view, consumers are influenced by their surrounding environment from time to time. The “model” of consumption is likely to make the low-income group to get closer to the consumption level of their surrounding people. Hence, he believes that the lower the income is, the high the marginal consu

34、mption propensity will be. However, both Absolute and Relative Income Hypothesis only take consumers current income into consideration and thus lack of microeconomic foundations. For that matter, within the framework of neo-classical Friedman and Modigliani extended consumer decision to embrace inte

35、r-stage selection and proposed Permanent Income Hypothesis and Life Cycle Hypothesis, respectively. They believed that consumers decision for current expenditure is determined by their life income.Nevertheless, none of these econometric models can escape from Lucas critique. Lucas (1976) pointed out

36、 that no matter how the traditional consumption function fits real data, they have no value in policy making decisions, because any change in policy will after all alter the relationship between aggregates in macroeconomic models. Therefore, Hall (1978) proposed a consumption theory based on rationa

37、l expectations. His idea is that consumption should follow the first-order optimal conditions of a typical forward-looking rational consumer, which is also known as “Euler Equation”. Hence, the Random Walk Model gives out the following equation assuming the quadratic utility function:(1)1E0ttttCThis

38、 means that the changes in consumption are unpredictable, that is the current consumption depends only on the consumption in the last period and independent of any other economic variables. In view of Halls hypothesis, later researchers have done a lot of empirical analysis but end up with no satisf

39、ied results. So Cambell and Mankiw (1990) proposed the idea that aggregate consumption function does not necessarily satisfy the general random walk. They put consumers into two categories: one to meet the Permanent Income Hypothesis of rational expectations and the other to spend their current inco

40、me which has the fraction of , also known as Excess Sensitivity. The greater is, the more sensitive consumption will reflect on the income of the same period. If , then consumption depends entirely on the current 1Research of Mathematical Economics No. 1 20119income; otherwise, if , it means the Per

41、manent Income Hypothesis of rational 0expectations is verified. Chinese scholars have made some progress in the research of “random walk” consumption theory. Wan Guoguang (2001) use the model of Hall and the idea of Campbell and Mankiw through the data from 1961 to 1998 in China and come to the conc

42、lusion that with the ever-deepening economic reform in China, the consuming behavior of Chinese households has experienced structural change in the early 1980s. They believe that both the rise in the proportion of liquidity constrained consumers and the increased uncertainty are responsible for the

43、low consumption growth rate in China and insufficient domestic demand. Hang Bin and Shen Chunlan (2004) believe that Excess Sensitivity in the sample period is likely to change due to policy changes, so they conducted a varying parameters analysis on the consumer sensitivity of urban residents throu

44、gh data from 1978 to 2002. They come to the results that before 1990 Excess Sensitivity had dropped dramatically, but after 1990, Excess Sensitivity had experienced stead growth, at about 0.64. Also, the substitution effect of changes in interest rates is greater than the income effect; that is to s

45、ay, consumption expenditure will increase along with the rise in interest rate. Through the analysis of relevant macroeconomic data about rural areas from 1978 to 2003, Zhu Xinkan (2005) concluded that 62.5% of rural household limited by liquidity constraint are short-sighted. By the analysis of res

46、idents consumption behaviors on durable and non-durable goods, Liu Hinquan (2003) found that household savings in China have significant “precautionary savings” components and future expected income is extraordinary uncertainty. Zhou Jian through the research into the variable parameter space state

47、model of the consumption function studied the sensitivity of consuming behavior of rural residents in the transition period. Empirical results showed that there exists significant “precautionary savings” motivation among the rural residents. Zhang Xuheng (2007) made use of precautionary saving, Liquidity Constraints Hypothesis and the dynamic modeling method to compare the characteristics of consumer behavior in Chinas rural areas and urban areas. His empirical results implied that the proportion of urban residents who were affected by liquidity constraints

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