1、North Koreas regime stumblesAn embarrassing climb-down puts North Koreas Kim Jong Il in a difficult positionFeb 10th 2010 | SEOUL AND TOKYO | From The Economist print editionAFPHOWEVER loathsome his neighbours find Kim Jong Il, the nuclear-armedNorth Korean dictator, there are few who do not also ad
2、mit that beneaththe big hair lurks a tactical genius with a flair for survival. Athome, North Koreans are smothered by his ruthless personality cult.With the outside world, he is an adept blackmailer: act mad enough tobe dangerous; then be conciliatory in exchange for cash.Recently, however, on both
3、 counts he has made tactical mistakes.None of these are serious enough to endanger his regime, diplomats say.But they are encouraging to those who believe they can eventually pushNorth Korea back to talks about dismantling its nuclear arsenal. Andthey reaffirm the benefits of what the Americans call
4、 “strategicpatience”: waiting until North Korea is desperate enough to offerconcessions.Even the regime appears, in its oddball way, to have acknowledgedthe most recent blunder. News reports this month suggest that NorthKorea has reversed some elements of a crackdown on private enterprisethat it unl
5、eashed with a cack-handed redenomination of the won onNovember 30th.In the interim, the currency collapsed, the price of rice surged byas much as 50 times, and much of traders working capital for buyingand selling goods was wiped out. Amid a seizing up of fooddistribution, there were some rare grumb
6、les of protest.But since early February, regulations on trading in the jangmadang,or markets, across North Korea appear to have been lifted, according tonews reports. Official prices (which are not necessarily what are paid)have been posted. A kilo of rice costs 240 won ($1.80) (a bit less thana pai
7、r of socks), a toothbrush is 25 won.Meanwhile, the Dear Leader has made what some observers believe tobe an unprecedented apology to his people for feeding them “brokenrice” and not providing enough white rice, bread and noodles. He was,he said, “heartbroken”, and implicitly acknowledged he had viol
8、ated anoath to his godlike father, Kim Il Sung, to feed the people rice andmeat soup. Adding to the poignancy, experts say the bungled reforms were donein the name of Kim Jong Un, the dictators third son and potentialheir. The young mans involvement may have been part of a strategy toreassert Stalin
9、ist-style state control of the enfeebled economy aheadof 2012, the 100th anniversary of grandfather Kims birth. People knowledgeable on North Korea are loth to believe that such aplan has been abandoned, not least because the small markets that haveflourished since the famine of the 1990s represent
10、such a challenge tothe states authority. But they say the ineptitude must have beenglaringly obvious, even in the hermetic state.“The government has never said sorry to the people, especially on atopic as sensitive as rice,” says Andrei Lankov of Kookmin Universityin Seoul, who has written a lot on
11、North Korea and has described itsleaders as brilliant Machiavellians. “Because of Kim Jong Ils age andthe age of those around him, it looks like he may be losing touch withreality.”Mr Lankov believes there may have been a similar miscalculation inNorth Koreas recent behaviour towards America, China,
12、 South Korea,Japan and Russia, the countries with whom in 2003 it started on-again,off-again denuclearisation negotiations, known as the six-party talks.Its firing of a long-range missile and explosion of a nuclear bomb inquick succession last year hardened the resolve of the five tostrengthen Unite
13、d Nations sanctions against Pyongyang and maintain themuntil it gives ground on its nukes. However much Mr Kim has cajoled andcoaxed in the months since, he has not yet managed to divide them.Whats more, diplomats say he appears to be increasingly open todiscussing a return to the six-party talks, s
14、omething which last yearhe vowed “never” to do. China, which is closest to North Korea andchairs the six-party forum, sent Wang Jiarui, a senior Communist Partyofficial, to meet Mr Kim this week and invite him to Beijing. Mr Kimmade no public commitment regarding the six-party talks. But hisnuclear
15、negotiator returned with Mr Wang to the Chinese capital.Lee Myung-bak, South Koreas president, surprised his countrymen bysaying that he, too, hoped to meet Mr Kim “within this year”. Thetiming was odd. His statement came at about the time North Korea waslobbing artillery shells threateningly into t
16、he Yellow Sea. But itrevealed what officials say is a twin-track process in Seoul to engageNorth Korea: bilaterally and via the six-party framework. “Myimpression is that the North Koreans are moving in the direction oftalks,” says Wi Sung-lac, South Koreas special representative forpeace on the pen
17、insula.Both North Korea and its six-party counterparts have set such toughconditions on coming together that it would be foolhardy to beoptimistic. North Korea wants a lifting of the UN sanctions and a peacetreaty with America to out a formal end to the 1950-53 Korean Warbefore restarting talks. Was
18、hington has resisted both. An East Asiandiplomat said the other five countries are demanding that North Koreatake “concrete measures” towards denuclearisation as a pre-conditionfor talks and the lifting of sanctions. “Were not giving any carrots.”Underscoring the resolve, humanitarian assistance to
19、North Korea hasslowed to a trickle. South Korea sent only $37m of public aid northlast year, compared with $209m in 2007. Officials say Mr Lee is adamantno money will go to North Korea to coax it into agreeing to a summit.Talks on cross-border tourism and factories, another means forPyongyang to ext
20、ort hard currency from the south, have made no progress.Mr Kim still has some good cards up his sleeve. Tensions betweenChina and America over Taiwan and Tibet provide a thread of disharmonythat he can tug upon. And China has a strategic eye on North Koreasports and minerals, which may encourage it
21、to be overly generous to theregime.But the mere hint of economic and diplomatic fallibility in a regimethat demands almost religious devotion from its subjects may besignificant. It comes at a time when North Koreans, via smuggled DVDsand telephones, have a greater idea than ever before of how far t
22、heirliving conditions fall short of their neighbours. That is a rare pointof vulnerability for Mr Kims interlocutors to exploit.经济学人：朝鲜政权的失误发表时间：2010 年 2 月 16 日译者：Carlos Gong (Twitter:carlos_gong)朝鲜的邻国大都认为金正日这个手持核武的独裁者十分可恶，然而它们也不得不承认，这个梳着大背头的家伙同时也是一个善于在夹缝中求生存的战略高手。他对内用狂热的个人崇拜麻痹群众，对外则展示出娴熟的勒索技巧先用疯狂的举
23、动发出威胁，然后佯装妥协来换取现金。然而最近，他在国内外都犯下了战术性错误。这些错误虽然不足以威胁到他的统治，但敏感的外交官们还是看到了促使朝鲜弃核的一丝希望。这些事实也再度证明美国的“战略克制”政策（即静待朝鲜因自己犯错陷于绝望而作出让步）是十分有利的。本月初的最新报道表明，朝鲜已经纠正了一些在 11 月 30 日的货币改革中发动的对私营经济的制裁措施。这个政权甚至一反常态地公开承认了最近一段时间在经济上所犯的错误。货币改革以后，币值暴跌，大米价格上升了 50 多倍，很多商人的周转资金被席卷一空。同时食品配给系统瘫痪，甚至有些地方发生了零星的抗议。但是在 2 月初，朝鲜放松了对境内个体市场经
24、营活动的管制。根据最新的报道，当局发布了官方指导价（虽然这并不代表实际价格）：一公斤大米售价 240 朝元（约合 1.80 美元） （略低于一双袜子的售价） ，一支牙刷的价格是 25朝元。同时， “亲爱领袖” 还史无前例地向他的人民道歉，因为他的人民至今还在用“碎米”（英语原文“broken rice”， 劳动新闻2 月 1 日原文为“玉米” 译者注）充饥，而没有得到足够的白米饭，面包和面条。他声称自己“很痛心”，甚至还含蓄地表示他辜负了其父“让朝鲜人民吃白米饭，喝肉汤”的遗训。更具讽刺意义的是，专家表示，这次失败的改革运动还是以金正日的第三子和接班人金正云（Kim Jong Un）的名义进行
25、的。朝鲜之所以这样做，可能是为了在 2012 年之前重申国家政权对经济的斯大林式的严格控制，因为 2012年是朝鲜开国领袖金日成的百年诞辰。90 年代大饥荒以来在朝鲜繁荣发展的小型个体市场是对当局统治的严峻挑战，因此很多消息人士都不敢相信朝鲜竟然放弃了这次经济改革计划。不过他们也说到，之所以会这样，应该是因为货币改革所造成的恶劣影响已经变得极其严重了。“北韩政府从来没有向人民道过歉，尤其是像食物供给这样敏感的部分。金正日及其亲信都年事已高，他看上去并没有准确地认识现实”。韩国国民大学教授安德烈兰考夫（ Andrei Lankov）这样谈到。他曾经出版过多部朝鲜研究著作，并称朝鲜领导人为“马基雅
26、维利主义者”。兰考夫教授表示，朝鲜近来在“六方会谈”问题上也做出了相似的错误决策。六方会谈始于 2003 年，美国，中国，韩国，日本和俄罗斯与朝鲜进行了多次断断续续的弃核谈判。去年朝鲜发射了远程导弹，紧接着还试爆了一颗原子弹。这样的举动使参与会谈的其他五国加强了联合国对朝鲜的制裁措施，并在朝鲜在核问题上作出让步之前维持这样的严厉制裁。金正日随后进行了多次口头让步，但都没有能分化五国的强硬立场。此外，外交人士说，尽管去年金正日还扬言“永不”重返六方会谈，但他似乎逐步愿意通过谈判重返六方会谈。中国是六方会谈的主办国，也是五国中与朝鲜关系最密切的国家。这周早些时候，中国派遣高级官员王家瑞（王家瑞系中
27、共中央对外联络部部长，2010 年 2 月 6 日访朝译者注）访问朝鲜，会见了金正日并邀请其访问北京。金正日并没有就六方会谈问题公开表态。但他的核问题谈判代表随王家瑞一同返回北京。韩国总统李明博近来作出了一个令人震惊的表态，他表示他也希望“在年内”与金正日进行会谈。这个时间点显得很微妙，因为就在此前朝鲜向黄海海域发射了多枚炮弹（指 1 月底朝鲜连续多日炮击黄海的朝韩争议海域译者注）。李明博的这一举动表明，韩国在朝韩问题上正在执行“双轨”策略即同时通过双边谈判和六方会谈框架进行外交。韩国韩半岛和平交涉本部部长魏圣洛表示：“我认为朝鲜正在向会谈方向靠拢。 ”但是，朝鲜和参与六方会谈的其他各国都为谈
28、判设置了很多苛刻的条件，因此重开六方会谈的前景仍然不同乐观。朝鲜要求在重返会谈前放松联合国的制裁，并与美国签订正式的和平协议以正式结束 1950 到 53 年的朝鲜战争。而美国对这两项要求都加以拒绝。一名东亚某国外交官表示，参与会谈的其他五国要求朝鲜采取“切实“的弃核行动作为重开会谈和放松制裁的先决条件， ”在这一点上我们五国不会作出任何让步“。在这种情况下，对朝鲜的人道主义援助降到了低点。去年韩国对朝鲜的公开援助仅为 3700 万美元，而 2007 年的援助额则高达 2.09 亿美元。官员表示，李明博政府决不会为了使朝鲜同意进行峰会而对其进行任何援助。而朝鲜的另一个从获取韩国外汇的渠道跨界旅游和合办工厂项目去年则没有取得任何进展。不过金正日手中仍然有几张好牌。它还可以利用中美在台湾和西藏问题上的紧张关系从中渔利，而中国对朝鲜港口和矿山资源的战略性考虑也可能会使它对朝鲜的行为更加容忍。但是在朝鲜这样一个需要靠宗教性的个人崇拜来维持的国度里，经济和外交上的任何一个错误都可能会造成重大的后果。特别是在朝鲜人通过走私的 DVD 和电话越来越了解到他们与邻国在生活水平上的巨大差距以后。这是金正日政权的一个罕见的弱点。
