1、1The Complete TurtleTrader The Legend The Lessons The Results真正的海龟交易者传奇，传授和传承中英对照版本翻译内容仅供投资者学习用，不可用于任何商业目的，张轶不负任何法律责任。张轶翻译制作中英对照版 word。版本越新，内容越完美。版本：2009 年 01 月 22 日。校对：网友“鹰寂长空”一名热心的警察，他为本书做出了大量文字上的美化工作，包括书名。他说这是送给大家的新年礼物。昨天半夜出勤，今天凌晨 3 点他才下班，上午告诉我，这个版本应该可以了，就匆忙上班去了。Michael W. Covel作者：迈克尔W 卡沃尔For Jak
2、e献给杰克Home plate collisions and winning are all that matter本垒打和赢钱一样重要“Every morning in Africa a gazelle wakes up. It knows it must run faster than the fastest lion or it will be killed. Every morning a lion wakes up. It knows it must run faster than the slowest gazelle or it will starve to death. It
3、doesnt matter whether you are a lion or a gazelle. When the sun comes up, you better start running.”African proverb“在非洲，每天早晨当羚羊醒来时，它知道它必须比最快的狮子还要快，否则它就会被杀。每天早晨当狮子醒来时，它知道它必须比最慢的羚羊快，否则它就饿死了。你是狮子，还是羚羊，这个不重要。当太阳起来时，你最好快跑。 ”非洲格言目录Preface.1前言 .1Acknowledgments.9感谢词 .91 Nurture versus Nature.10第 01 章 天生的，还
4、是后天培养的 .102 Prince of the Pit.21第 02 章 交易场内的王子 .2123 The Turtles.44第 03 章 海龟们 .444 The Philosophy .72第 04 章 理念 .725 The Rules.92第 05 章 原则 .926 In the Womb.131第 06 章 在酝酿中 .1317 Who Got What to Trade.147第 07 章 资金分配问题 .1478 Game Over .169第 08 章 实验结束 .1699 Out on Their Own.177第 09 章 他们只有靠自己了 .17710 Denn
5、is Comes Back to the Game .188第 10 章 丹尼斯又回到了交易界 .18811 Seizing Opportunity .198第 11 章 抓住机会 .19812 Failure Is a Choice.215第 12 章 失败是一个选择 .21513 Second-Generation Turtles.221第 13 章 第二代海龟 .22114 Model Greatness .239第 14 章 榜样的伟大 .239Appendix I Where Are They Now? .244附录 1 他们现在在哪里？ .244Appendix II Relate
6、d Websites.251附件 2 相关的网址 .251Appendix III Turtle Performance Data .252附录 3 海龟的业绩数据 .252Appendix IV Turtle Performance While Trading for Richard Dennis.255附录 4 海龟们帮丹尼斯交易时的业绩 .255Endnotes.282尾注 .282About the Author.294关于作者 .2943Preface前言“Trading was more teachable than I ever imagined. Even though I w
7、as the only one who thought it was teachable . . . it was teachable beyond my wildest imagination.”Richard Dennis“交易比想象的要容易传授。即使只有我这么认为也比我想象的要容易。 ”理查德丹尼斯This is the story of how a group of ragtag students, many with no Wall Street experience, were trained to be millionaire traders. Think of Donald T
8、rumps show The Apprentice, played out in the real world with real money and real hiring and firing. However, these apprentices were thrown into the fire and challenged to make money almost immediately, with millions at stake. They werent trying to sell ice cream on the streets of New York City. They
9、 were trading stocks, bonds, currencies, oil, and dozens of other markets to make millions.这是一个关于一群混杂学生的故事，他们中间很多人没有在华尔街工作过，这个故事讲他们是如何成为百万富翁的。想想唐纳德特朗普的真人秀节目学徒 （张轶注：香港翻译成飞黄腾达 ） ，真枪实弹，真实的聘用，真实的炒鱿鱼。这些学徒要去实战，必须立刻赚钱。但本书的主人公不用在纽约街头卖冰激凌。他们交易股票、债券、外汇、原油和很多其它市场，以赚到几百万。This story blows the roof off the conven
10、tional Wall Street success image so carefully crafted in popular culture: prestige, connections, and no place at the table for the little guy to beat the market (and beating the market is no small task). Legendary investor Benjamin Graham always said that analysts and fund managers as a whole could
11、not beat the market because in a significant sense they were the market. On top of that, the academic community has argued for decades about efficient markets, once again implying there is no way to beat market averages.这个故事打破了华尔街精心塑造的成功者形象：有名望，有关系，而小人物不可能战胜市场（战胜市场是很难的） 。传奇投资者本杰明格雷厄姆经常说分析师加上基金经理都不能战
12、胜市场，因为他们本身就是市场。再说了，学术界几十年来都在争论有效市场，也就是暗示没有办法战胜市场。Yet making big money, beating the market, is doable if you dont follow the herd, if you think outside the box. People do have a chance to win in the 4market game, but he or she needs the right rules and attitude to play by. And those right rules and a
13、ttitude collide head-on with basic human nature.如果你不人云亦云，如果你独立思考，赚大钱并战胜市场是可行的。人们有机会在市场中取胜，但是他或她需要正确的原则和态度。正确的原则和态度与人的本性正好相反。This real-life apprentice story would still be buried had I not randomly picked up the July 1994 issue of Financial World magazine, featuring the article “Wall Streets Top Play
14、ers.” On the cover was famed money manager George Soros playing chess. Soros had made $1.1 billion for the year. The article listed the top one hundred paid players on Wall Street for 1993, where they lived, how much they made, and in general how they made it. Soros was first. Julian Robertson was s
15、econd, at $500 million. Bruce Kovner was fifth, at $200 million. Henry Kravis of KKR was eleventh at $56 million. Famed traders Louis Bacon and Monroe Trout were on the list, too.如果我没有无意中翻开 1994 年 7 月的金融世界 杂志并看到了“华尔街顶尖高手”的文章，那么真实的学徒故事就被埋没了。封面是著名的基金经理乔治索罗斯在下棋。当年索罗斯赚了 11 亿美元。这篇文章列出了 1993 年华尔街 100 位顶尖受
16、薪交易者，包括他们的住址，赚了多少钱，以及他们赚钱的方式。索罗斯排名第一。朱利安罗伯逊排名第二，他赚了 5 亿美元。布鲁斯科夫勒排名第五，他赚了 2 亿美元。KKR 的亨利 克拉维斯排名第十一，他赚了 5600 万美元。著名的交易者路易斯培根和蒙罗特劳特也在名单中。The rankings (and earnings) provided a crystal-clear landscape of who was making “Master of the Universe” money. Here were, without a doubt, the top players in the “ga
17、me.” Unexpectedly, one of them just happened to be living and working outside Richmond, Virginia, two hours from my home.这个（收益）排名明显地告诉了我们谁赚的钱最多。毫无疑问，他们就是这个游戏的顶尖玩家。没想到，其中有一个人正好就住在弗吉尼亚州里士满郊区，离我家只有 2 小时的车程。Twenty-fifth on the list was R. Jerry Parker, Jr., of Chesapeake Capital - and he had just made $
18、35 million. Parker was not yet forty years old. His brief biography described him as a former pupil of Richard Dennis (who?) and noted that he was trained to be a “Turtle” (what?). Parker was described as a then twenty-five-year-old accountant who had attended Denniss school in 1983 to learn his “tr
19、end-tracking system.” The article also said he was a disciple of Martin Zweig (who?), who just happened to be thirty-third on the highest-paid list that year. At that moment the name “Dennis” was neither more nor less important than “Zweig,” but the implication was that these two men had made Parker
20、 extremely rich.名单上排名第 25 位的是切萨皮克基金的杰瑞 帕克 他赚了 3500 万美元。帕克还不到 40 岁。文字资料说他是理查德 丹尼斯（谁？）的学生，还说他被训练成了一只“海龟” （什么？） 。报道说帕克在 1983 到丹尼斯的学校学习5“趋势跟踪系统”时只是 25 岁的会计。文章还说他是马丁 史维格（谁？）的徒弟，马丁史维格正好在当年收入最高的人中排名第 32 位。当时“丹尼斯”这个名字还没有“史维格”重要，但是看起来好像就是这 2 个人把帕克塑造得超级富有。I studied that list intently, and Parker appeared to b
21、e the only one in the top hundred advertised as having been “trained.” For someone like myself, looking for ways to try and earn that kind of money, his biography was immediate inspiration, even if there were no real specifics. Here was a man who bragged that he was a product of the “Virginia boondo
22、cks,” loved country music, and preferred to keep as far away from Wall Street as possible. This was no typical moneymaking story - that much I knew.我认真地研究了这个名单，似乎在这 100 个人中间，帕克是唯一被“训练过”的。像我这样的人，正在想办法赚钱，虽然关于他的介绍不具体，我也立刻受到了启发。这小子吹他是“弗吉尼亚郊区”的人，喜爱乡村音乐，喜欢远离华尔街。这和我通常了解的赚钱故事不一样。The common wisdom that the o
23、nly way you could find success was by working in eighty-story steel- and- glass towers in New York, London, Hong Kong, or Dubai was clearly dead wrong. Jerry Parkers office was absolutely in middle of nowhere, thirty miles outside Richmond in Manakin-Sabot, Virginia. Soon after reading the magazine,
24、 I drove down to see his office, noting its lack of pretense, and sat in the parking lot thinking, “You have got to be kidding me. This is where he makes all that money?”一般人都说，要想找到成功，你就要到纽约、伦敦、香港或迪拜的 80 层钢筋玻璃大楼上班，很明显，这是错的。杰瑞帕克的办公室在弗吉尼亚里士满郊区 30 英里处，并不是什么高楼大厦。看完这本杂志后，我开车去看了他的办公室，我在停车场的时候想：“这不是开玩笑吧。他能在
25、那里赚钱？”Malcolm Gladwell famously said, “There can be as much value in the blink of an eye as in months of rational analysis.” Seeing Parkers country office was an electrical impulse for me, permanently dispelling the importance of location. But I knew nothing else at the time about Jerry Parker other
26、 than what was in that 1994 issue of Financial World. Were there more of these students? How did they become students? What were they taught? And who was this man Dennis who had taught Parker and others?马尔科姆格拉德威尔有一句名言：“瞬间行动的价值比几个月理性的分析还要大。 ”去帕克的郊区办公室让我激动，地点不是重点。但在当时，除了 1994年金融世界上的报道，我对杰瑞帕克一无所知。他还有更多
27、的同学吗？他们是如何成为别人的学生的？他们是如何学习的？传授知识给帕克和帕克的同学的那个丹尼斯是谁？Richard Dennis was an iconoclast, a wildcatting Chicago trader not affiliated with a major investment bank or Fortune 500 firm. As the “locals” were fond of saying on Chicago trading floors, Dennis “bet his left nut.” In 1983, by the time 6he was thi
28、rty-seven, hed made hundreds of millions of dollars out of an initial grubstake of a few hundred. Dennis had done it on his own terms in less than fifteen years, with no formal training or guidance from anyone. He took calculated risks leveraging up huge amounts of money. If he liked a trade, he too
29、k all of it he could get. He lived the markets as a “betting” business.理查德丹尼斯这个人比较反传统，他是芝加哥的交易者，但他不是财富 500家投资银行的雇员，他自己研究交易。芝加哥交易所的当地人喜欢说丹尼斯喜欢孤注一掷。在 1983 年，他当时 37 岁，他已经用几百美元赚了几亿美元。在15 年内，丹尼斯没有接受任何人的训练或指导，他自己交易。他用计算过的风险撬起了很多钱。如果他喜欢一笔交易，他就能从这笔交易中得到巨大回报。他把市场当作赌场做。Dennis figured out how to profit in the
30、real world from an understanding of behavioral finance decades before Nobel prizes were handed out to professors preaching theory. His competitors could never get a handle on his consistent ability to exploit irrational market behavior throughout all types of markets. His understanding of probabilit
31、ies and payoffs was freakish.在诺贝尔奖被颁给理论界人士之前，丹尼斯就搞清楚了如何从真实的世界赚钱。他可以在非理性的市场行为中实现持续一致的能力，他的竞争者就永远做不到。他对概率和回报的理解是不可思议的。Dennis simply marched to a different drum. He eschewed publicity about his net worth even though the press speculated about it extensively. “I find that kind of gauche,” said Dennis. P
32、erhaps he was reticent to focus on his wealth because what he really wanted to prove was that his earning skills were nothing special. He felt anyone could learn how to trade if taught properly.丹尼斯按照不同的节奏取得进步。媒体喜欢猜他的资产数字，他则回避透露。丹尼斯说：“我不太懂社交。 ”也许他不想透露他的财富，因为他想证明他赚钱的技术并不特殊。他觉得只要有合适的教学方法，任何人都能学会交易。His
33、partner, William Eckhardt, disagreed, and their debate resulted in an experiment with a group of would-be apprentice traders recruited during 1983 and 1984 for two trading “classes.” That “Turtle” name? It was simply the nickname Dennis used for his students. He had been on a trip to Singapore and v
34、isited a turtle-breeding farm. A huge vat of squirming turtles inspired him to say, “We are going to grow traders just like they grow turtles in Singapore.”他的伙伴威廉埃克哈特不这么认为，他们争论的结果是招聘一些学徒参加1983 年和 1984 年的交易课程。海龟是什么意思？海龟仅仅是丹尼斯给学生们起的绰号。他曾经去过新加坡，参观了一个养海龟的农场。大量的海龟刺激了他，他说：“我们要像新加坡人养海龟那样培养交易者。 ”After Denni
35、s and Eckhardt taught novices like Jerry Parker how to make millions and the “school” closed, the experiment morphed into word-of-mouth legend over the years supported by few hard facts. The National Enquirer 7version of the story was captured in 1989 by a Wall Street Journal headline, “Can the skil
36、ls of successful trading be learned? Or are they innate, some sort of sixth sense a lucky few are born with?”在丹尼斯和埃克哈特培养了杰瑞帕克这样的新手，并教他们如何赚几百万之后，课程就结束了，但这些年有很多人在口口相传这个传奇实验，也有一些事实证据。1989 年华尔街日报头条有个全国性的调查：“成功交易的技术可以被传授吗？或者是因为他们是天才，他们幸运地拥有了第六感？”Since the 1980s are long past, many might wonder if the Tur
37、tles story still has relevance. It has more relevance than ever. The philosophy and rules Dennis taught his students, for example, are similar to the trading strategy employed by numerous billion- dollar- plus hedge funds. True, the typical stock-tip chaser glued daily to CNBC has not heard this story, but the players on Wall Street, the ones who make the real money, know.因为 80 年代过去好久了，很多人在想，是否海龟的故事还有意义。它的意义比过去还要深刻。丹尼斯教给学生们的理念和原则，和几十亿美元对冲基金的理念和原则是相似
