1、1TRADING IN THE ZONE交易心理分析Trading in the zone : master the market with confidence, discipline, and a winning attitude / by Mark Douglas, 交易心理分析用自信、纪律和赢家的态度来掌握市场/作者：马克道格拉斯DEDICATION献词This book is dedicated to all of the traders I have had the pleasure of working with over the last 18 years as a tradi
2、ng coach. Each of you in your own unique way is a part of the insight and guidance this book will provide to those who choose to trade from a confident, disciplined, and consistent state of mind.本书献给过去 18 年来我所认识的所有交易者，作为交易教练，我和他们在一起很快乐。你们中的每一个人用自己独特的方式，为本书提供见解和指导，引导那些用自信、纪律和持续一致思想交易的人们。TABLE OF CONT
3、ENTS目录FOREWORD .4序言 .4PREFACE .5引子 .5ATTITUDE SURVEY .8态度调查表 .8CHAPTER 1 THE ROAD TO SUCCESS: FUNDAMENTAL, TECHNICAL, OR MENTAL ANALYSIS? 13第 01 章 成功之路：基本面，技术面或思想分析面？ .13IN THE BEGINNING: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS.13开始：基本面分析 .13THE SHIFT TO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS.14转到技术分析 .14THE SHIFT TO MENTAL ANALYSIS.15转到
4、思想分析 .15CHAPTER 2 THE LURE (AND THE DANGERS) OF TRADING .25第 02 章 交易的诱惑（和危险） .25THE ATTRACTION .26吸引 .26THE DANGERS .29危险 .29THE SAFEGUARDS .33安全措施 .33PROBLEM: The unwillingness to Create Rules .35问题：不愿意制定原则 .35PROBLEM: Failure to Take Responsibility .36问题：不负责任 .362PROBLEM: Addiction to Random Rewar
5、ds .38问题：对随机的回报上瘾 .38PROBLEM: External versus Internal Control .39问题：外部控制对抗内部控制 .39CHAPTER 3 TAKING RESPONSIBILITY .40第 03 章 自己承担责任 .40SHAPING YOUR MENTAL ENVIRONMENT.40塑造你的思想环境 .40REACTING TO LOSS .44对亏损的反应 .44WINNERS, LOSERS, BOOMERS, AND BUSTERS.54赢家，输家，暴发户和亏损者 .54CHAPTER 4 CONSISTENCY: A STATE O
6、F MIND .60第 04 章 持续一致性：一种思想状态 .60THINKING ABOUT TRADING.61考虑交易 .61REALLY UNDERSTANDING RISK.63完全明白风险 .63ALIGNING YOUR MENTAL ENVIRONMENT.67让你的思想持续一致 .67CHAPTER 5 THE DYNAMICS OF PERCEPTION.70第 05 章 认知的动力 .70DEBUGGING YOUR MENTAL SOFTWARE .71为你的思想软件找茬 .71PERCEPTION AND LEARNING .74认知和学习 .74PERCEPTION
7、 AND RISK .79认知和风险 .79THE POWER OF ASSOCIATION .79联想的力量 .79CHAPTER 6 THE MARKETS PERSPECTIVE.85第 06 章 市场的角度 .85THE “UNCERTAINTY” PRINCIPLE .85“不确定” 原则 .85MARKETS MOST FUNDAMENTAL CHARACTERISTIC (IT CAN EXPRESS ITSELF IN AN ALMOST INFINITE COMBINATION OF WAYS ) .90市场最基本的特征（它几乎可以用任何组合方式来表达自己） .90CHAPT
8、ER 7 THE TRADERS EDGE: THINKING IN PROBABILITIES .96第 07 章 交易者的优势：考虑概率 .96PROBABILITIES PARADOX: RANDOM OUTCOME, CONSISTENT RESULTS.96概率的似非而是：随机的结果，持续一致的收入 .96TRADING IN THE MOMENT .100有机会就交易 .100MANAGING EXPECTATIONS .106管理期望 .1063ELIMINATING THE EMOTIONAL RISK.112消灭情绪风险 .112CHAPTER 8 WORKING WITH
9、YOUR BELIEFS .115第 08 章 和信念一起工作 .115DEFINING THE PROBLEM .116给问题下定义 .116DEFINING THE TERMS .118对几个说法下定义 .118HOW THE FUNDAMENTAL TRUTHS RELATE TO THE SKILLS .120这些基本事实和技术如何联系起来 .120MOVING TOWARD “THE ZONE” .123进入这个“状态” .123CHAPTER 9 THE NATURE OF BELIEFS.124第 09 章 信念的天性 .124THE ORIGINS OF A BELIEF .1
10、26信念的来源 .126BELIEFS AND THEIR IMPACT ON OUR LIVES .128信念和信念对我们生活的影响 .128BELIEFS VS. THE TRUTH .133信念对抗事实 .133CHAPTER 10 THE IMPACT OF BELIEFS ON TRADING .135第 10 章 信念对交易的影响 .135THE PRIMARY CHARACTERISTICS OF A BELIEF .136信念的基本特点 .136SELF EVALUATION AND TRADING.148自我评估和交易 .148CHAPTER 11 THINKING LIKE
11、 A TRADER .150第 11 章 像交易者一样思考 .150THE MECHANICAL STAGE .152机械阶段 .152THE ROLE OF SELF-DISCIPLINE .157自律的作用 .157CREATING A BELIEF IN CONSISTENCY .162创造一个相信持续一致性的信念 .162EXERCISE: LEARNING TO TRADE AN EDGE LIKE A CASINO .165练习：向赌场学习利用优势交易 .165A FINAL NOTE.176最后的提醒 .176ATTITUDE SURVEY .176态度调查 .176INDEX
12、.错误！未定义书签。英语索引（张轶略去） .错误！未定义书签。4FOREWORD序言The great bull market in stocks has led to an equally great bull market in the number of books published on the subject of how to make money trading the markets. Many ideas abound, some good, some not, some original, some just a repackaging of earlier works.
13、 Occasionally, though, a writer comes forward with something that really sets him or her apart from the pack, something special. One such writer is Mark Douglas.大牛市导致出版社出了很多书，这些书都是谈如何通过交易赚钱。有很多思想，有些很好，有些则不行，有些是原创的，有些只是把以前的作品再重新包装一下而已。偶尔，一些作者会脱颖而出，写出特殊的作品。其中一个作者就是马克道格拉斯。Mark Douglas, in Trading in th
14、e Zone, has written a book that is the accumulation of years of thought and research - the work of a lifetime - and for those of us who view trading as a profession, he has produced a gem.在马克道格拉斯的书交易心理分析中，展示了他多年的思想和研究一生的心血对于我们把交易当作职业的人来说，他给我们的是一块宝石。Trading in the Zone is an in-depth look at the chal
15、lenges that we face when we take up the challenge of trading. To the novice, the only challenge appears to be to find a way to make money. Once the novice learns that tips, brokers advice, and other ways to justify buying or selling do not work consistently, he discovers that he either needs to deve
16、lop a reliable trading strategy or purchase one. After that, trading should be easy, right? All you have to do is follow the rules, and the money will fall into your lap.我们在交易时会遇到挑战， 交易心理分析则对这些挑战提供了深刻的见解。对于新手来说，唯一的挑战似乎就是找到赚钱的方法。当新手明白消息，经纪公司的建议和其它买卖方法都不能持续一致赢利时，他发现要么自己设计一个可靠的交易系统，要么去买一个。完成了这个任务，交易就简单
17、了，对不？你要做的就是遵守原则，这样钱就来了。At this point, if not before, novices discover that trading can turn into one of the most frustrating experiences they will ever face. This experience leads to the oft-started statistic that 95 percent of futures traders lose all of their money within the first year of trading
18、. Stock traders generally experience the same results, which is why pundits always point to the fact that most stock traders fail to outperform a simple buy and hold investment scenario.这时，如果新手以前没有体验过的话，现在就会发现交易进入了前所未有的艰难阶段。统计的结果表明，95%的期货交易者会在第一年把钱亏光，而新手就要体验这样的事。股票交易者通常也会体验同样的结果，这就是为什么权威人士说大部分股票交易者的
19、表现还不如买入并持有的投资策略。So, why do people, the majority of whom are extremely successful in other occupations, fail so miserably as traders? Are successful traders born and not made? Mark Douglas says no. Whats necessary, he says, is that the individual acquire the traders mindset. It sounds easy, but the fact is, this mindset is very foreign when compared with the way our life experiences teach us to think about the world.那么，为什么大部分人在做其它职业时
