1、 外文翻译 原文 The Effect of Customer Satisfaction on Consumer Spending Growth Material Source: http:/web.ebscohost. com/ehost/detail?vid=10 Rust, Roland T; Dekimpe, Marnik G The economic importance of consumer spending growth can hardly beoverestimated. In the U.S. national accounts, consumer spending re
2、presents more than 70%of gross domestic product(GDP).Therefore, it should come as no surprise that changes in consumer spending are closely monitored by public policy makers and marketing managers alike. Indeed, even fairly small changes in consumer spending have profound implications for the health
3、 of the economy as a whole and for numerous companies and industries. Neither the government nor individual firms want consumer spending to go down, and economic policy is designed to balance current spending with savings/ investments to enable spending in the future. The Federal Reserve has repeate
4、dly cut interest rates to make borrowing(and subsequent spending)easier, while many durable goods manufacturers have switched to 0%financing to keep their sales levels up. Reports of declining consumer expenditures cause managers to adapt their marketing strategy along multiple dimensions. Increased
5、 nervousness about future consumer spending makes organizations reluctant to make long-term commitments to brand advertising, switching instead to tactics they know will drive short-term sales(Grande 2006).Retailers adjust not only their pricing strategy but also their assortment composition in the
6、wake of reduced consumer spending. For example, amid a gloomy outlook for the U.S. economy, Wal-Mart cut prices of thousands of back-to-school items in summer 2007 and discontinued several higher-priced line. As consumer spending improves, managers make the reverse adjustments. As a case in point, i
7、ncreased consumer spending in summer 2004 caused shoe retailers not only to increase their marketing expenditures but also to add more high-end products to their assortment(Gray 2004). Therefore,itscriticaltoanticipate movements in consumer spending.However,the problemisthatonsumerspendinggrowthidif
8、ficulttopredict.Accordingtothewell-knownpermanent-incomeandlife-cyclemodelsof consumption, consumption expenditures follow a random-walk process. This implies that future consumption is a function only of current consumption and that all other information is irrelevant. An empirically testable impli
9、cation of this contention is that consumption should be“unrelated to any economic variable that is observed in earlier periods”. Indeed, current spending by households is assumed to reflect all available relevant information, making future changes in spending de facto unpredictable. Similar reasonin
10、g underlies many tests of the efficient market hypothesis in finance. Still, prior empirical work has found several, albeit weak, correlates of spending growth. For example, Carroll, Fuhrer, and Wilcox(1994)find that lagged values of the Index of Consumer Sentiment(ICS)explained approximately 14%of
11、the one-quarter-ahead variation in the growth of total real personal consumption expenditures; Murphy(2000)explains approximately 8%on the basis of lagged debt service ratios(DSRs);and Case, Quigley, and Shiller (2001)explain approximately 8%(in combination with income, but using contemporaneous ana
12、lyses of the variation in consumer spending on the basis of changes in housing wealth. .Ludvigson(2004)concludes that sentiment and confidence indexes add only modest information to spending forecasts. On the one hand, these results are impressive because they empirically seem to refute a key implic
13、ation of the life-cycle/permanent-income models ofconsumption. On the other hand, from the point of view of an applied economic forecasting, they are of limited value. Several researchers have taken the failure of the life- cycle/permanent-income models in aggregate data as established and have trie
14、d to identify the underlying reasons for this failure. Explanations that have been put forward include consumer myopia,consumer liquidity constraints, and credit-induced habit modifications.These studies have certain implications with respect to how consumers react to predictable improvements versus
15、 deteriorations oftheir financial condition. As a result, various asymmetric consumption models have been proposed. Many of them provide empirical support for the notion that consumers react differently to an improvement than to a deterioration in their financial condition. For example, Deleersnyder
16、 andcolleagues(2004)and Lamey and colleagues （ 2007) findan asymmetric consumer response across economic expansions and contractions.Rao and Bharadwaj(2008)make a case for distinguishing between up and down states of the economy. Customer satisfaction and expenditure growth Customer satisfaction has
17、 been shown to affect choice and purchase behavior at the individual consumer level. In this article, we examine whether a similar relationship can be found when both satisfaction and spending are aggregated across the U.S.population. Prior research has already linked aggregate satisfaction scores t
18、o aggregate market share, shareholder value,long-term profitability, and stock prices. We show how consumption is dependent on both customer satisfaction(willingness to spend)and debt service(ability to spend)in a framework that captures the asymmetric nature of these relationships. At a basic level
19、, it is obvious that the degree of utility or satisfaction a person derives from consumption may affect how he or she spends money. Willingness is likely to be linked to the satisfaction obtained from previous consumption. Indeed, Johnson, Anderson,and Fornell(1995)find that the degree of satisfacti
20、on with previous purchases has a strong effect on expected utility and, thus, on future expenditure decisions. Boulding and colleagues(1993)make a similar argumentnamely, that consumers form expectations about their future levels of satisfaction on the basis of their current satisfaction. CONCLUSION
21、 We argue that a major marketing variable may have been overlooked in the debate on whether consumer spending growth can be predicted. We find that customer satisfaction explains a good deal of future growth in discretionary spending, both as a main effect and in combination with household DSR. We s
22、how that the explanatory power of these variables is considerably higher than of other variables, such as credit, income, and consumer sentiment, which have all been examined in prior research. In addition, our findings contribute to the growing evidence that consumers react differently to positive
23、versus negative changes in their financial situation. In line with Messinis, Henry, and Olekalns(2002),we find that past consumption experience weakens as debt increases. When debt is reduced, the main effect remains. As we indicated previously, reports on expected changes in consumer spending may l
24、ead marketing managers to alter their marketing plans. By then, however, it may be too late. Marketing managers should not react only to the evolution in consumer spending. Our results suggest that good marketing, which leaves customers satisfied, also helps proactively curb spending reductions. Alt
25、hough this has already been suggested at the firm and industry levels, our results show that this is more than a zero-sum game in which customeroriented firms(industries)gain at the expense of competition. Rather, when the overall quality of offerings improves and customer satisfaction increases, th
26、e aggregate level of consumer spending increases as well, unless the household debt service creates too much of a budget constraint. As such, while offering easy credit(or even zero financing)may allow firms to temporarily protect sales,the resultant increase in alsounderminesthepotentialcontributio
27、nofgoodmarketing.Pauwelsandcolleagues(2004)makeasimilarobservation:Althoughinnovationsincreasedthelongtermfinancialvaluationofcarmanufacturers,promotionalincentives(e.g.,0%financing)hadanegativeimpact on company capitalization, despite the sales increase. From a theoretical point of view, our findin
28、gs contribute to a growing body of empirical literature that provides evidence against the permanent-income hypothesis and the related life-cycle hypothesis in aggregate data and suggest that there is another fundamental factor at play in explaining why consumers spendnamely, a search for gratificat
29、ion or the satisfaction derived from consumption. From a practical point of view, economic forecasters might benefit from paying closer attention to marketing-related variables when predicting consumer spending growth. Our study has several limitations that suggest areas for future inquiry. Our find
30、ings are confined to the United States, and it would be prudent to generalize them to other countries. Consumers are not the same in all countries. They differ in propensity to save, risk attitude, long-term orientation, and so forth, and it is not clear how consumption utility and debt service inte
31、ract with respect to spending growth. Similarly, we examined discretionary expenditures. It might be useful to consider other potential marketing drivers of nondiscretionary spending. In addition to the obvious relevance for the economy in general, th eimplicat- ions for marketing are considerable.
32、A better understanding of consumer spending growth should result in better marketing plans and better sales forecasts, which in turn should lead to superior decisions in all major areas of marketing, including products, pricing, promotion, distribution, capacity planning, and staffing decisions. In
33、addition, recent research has emphasized the value of many marketing metrics to stock marketanalyst analysts (e.g., Lehmann 2004; Rust et al. 2004). The findings of this study suggestthat that macroeconomists might also benefit from a closer monitoring of marketing. 译文 顾客满意度对消费开支的影响 资料来源： http:/ Rus
34、t, Roland T; Dekimpe, Marnik G 消费开支的增长对经济重要性发展是很难被预测的。在美国国民经济核算消费开支相当于超过 70%的国内生产总值，因此，消费开支的变动应当没有任何异动的被公众决策者和销售经理密切的监督。的确，即使消费开支相当小变动也会对作为一个整体的稳定经济与众多的公司与行业产生深刻的意义，政府与私营企业都不希望消费开支下跌， 往往通过有计划的经济政策 例如： 储蓄与投资来平衡当前的开支，确保未来的消费 额 。联邦储蓄已经通过多次降低利率来确保连串的开支与轻易的借贷， 甚至有许多耐用品生产厂家，为了维持他们销售额的增长，在进行着 0 利润的销售。 消费者支
35、出下降的报告促使管理者沿着多维度 角度 去适应他们的经营战略 ， 刺激消费者今后的消费， 导致了 组织不愿意长期承诺品牌广告，他们会倾向于短期销售的交换代替策略。 由于 消费开支下跌 ， 零售商不仅调整了他们的定价策略 而且 改变了他们的品种组成。例如，在美国经济萧条的时候，沃尔玛在 2007 年夏季对成千上万的返校项目 进行了降价并且废弃了一些高价格的生产线。由于消费开支改善，管理者做出了相反调整。正如一个恰当的例子，在2004 年夏季消费者支出的增长促发了鞋业零售商不仅提高了他们的营销支出而且增加很多的高端产品。 因此，消费者支出的变化是很难 被 预的测的。然而，问题是，消费开支增长是很难
36、被预测的 ， 根据著名的 永久 收入与生命周期消费模型，消费支出遵循一个无规则运动进程。这暗指了未来消费作用，仅仅是当前消费与其它的信息无关。 .一个实证研究表明，消费量应当是与早期预测的任何经济变量不相关的。的确，设想当前的家庭消费反映了所有有价值的 相关信息，那么未来消费的变化事实上就是不可预知的了。类似的这些实验构成了经济学上有效的市场假说模型 。 尽管如此，先前的经验模式已经发现了一些，虽然这些与消费增长关联性不强。例如，卡罗尔，威尔科特斯在 1994 年发现滞后价值的 消费者信心指数 ，表明约 14%的先前总变化发展真正个人消费支出的 1/4、。 墨菲表明约 8%的以滞后 偿债保障比
37、率 为基础的。 奎格利，美国金融学家希勒在 2001 年结合利用同时期的收入所得，在 2001 年的研究中表明约 8%的消费支出变化是以家庭收入的改变为基础的。 Ludvigson 在 2004 的调查中认为情绪与信心指数可以适度的添加到消费预测中去。一方面，这些结论令人印象深刻，因为他们似乎是用实证来反驳生命周期与长期收入这个有着重要意义的消费模型。另一方面，从这些实用的经济预测观点，可以看出他们是有限制价值。 一些研究者采用了生命周期与长期收入模型去研究，但失败了，但他们从这些以确定的收集资料中试着去确定失败的潜在原因。亨利提出了包括消费者缺乏远见、消费者的流动性与信用问题习惯的改变这些研
38、究表明了消费者反应了提高可预测的恶化财务状况。结果表明，研究者提出了各种各样不同的消费模型。很多研 究者提出了应关注消费者反应的不同改进措施而不是他们恶化的财政状况的实证支持的观念。例如， Deleersnyder、 Lamey 与他们的同事都发现了不同的消费者之间反应了经济的扩张，收缩。 Rao 和 Bharadwaj 在 2008 做了一个关于如何区分上下浮动的经济制度状况的调研。 顾客满意度与开支发展 顾客满意度已经被证实对个人消费的抉择与购买行为有影响。在这篇文章中我们研究了美国消费者，当满意与消费被合并时，类似的关系式否会被发现。先前的研究已经连结合并令人满意的成绩去合并市场份额，实
39、现股东价值，长期赢利能力，股票 价格。我们指出需求量在争取非均匀性质关系结构时是随顾客满意度 (消费意愿 )偿债服务（消费能力）而定的。 从这个基础上，很明显效应程度与令消费者满意的原因可能会影响消费者的支出。正如结合先前的消费量获得令人满意的开支发展 ， 的确，约翰逊，安德森，费耐尔在 1995 年发现满意度在期望效应上对先前的购买行为、消费决定有很强的影响。美国经济学家鲍尔丁与他的同事在 1993 年也有类似的看法，认为未来消费者的期望水平以他们的当前满意为基础。 结论 我们认为市场变化的主要原因、消费开支的增长是否可以被预测，有可能在 争论中已经被忽略了。我们发现用客户满意度来解释未来无
40、规律的消费变化是一种很好的方法，由都两者都考虑了家庭和 偿债保障比率 这两个主要的影响因素。 从先前我们所研究的，不难看出这些解释力要比信用，收入，消费意欲这类重要的多。此外，我们发现当消费者对他们的财务状况抱以从消极到积极的转变时，将对消费开支的增长有着显著的作用。通过 Messinis,Henry, 和Olekalns 的调研，我们发现随着债务的增加，消费者的消费次数也会随之而减少。当债务减少时，保留了主要的影响因素。 正如我们先前所说的，市场经理会通过预 测消费开支的变化来改变他们的营销计划。然而，写在说似乎有点晚，市场经理不应该丹单单根据消费需求的变化来改变他们的营销计划。我们建议一个
41、良好的营销计划，不仅要考虑如何确保顾客满意，同时也要积极的抑制消费支出的减少。虽然很多企业都被建议在竞争负担中获得利润，应考虑行业、与公司的水平，而不是让顾客去适应企业。倒不如，坚持改善综合素质、提高顾客满意度提高消费开支的总体水平，除此之外也要为家庭偿债服务创造更多的预算约束。同时需要注意，当企业提供 0 利率的信贷时，这也许可以确保企业暂时的销售额，但随着顾客偿债的增加，不仅 仅会构成对长期健康经济的威胁，而且会破坏具有潜在贡献力的市场。保韦尔斯与他的同事在 2004 年做了一个类似的研究，尽管革新提高了汽车制造商的长期性金融评估，提高了公司的销售额，但促销的刺激也对公司的股本有着负面的影
42、响。 从一理论观点来看，我们发现实验式著作本身，提供了针对永久收入的假说的证据，和叙述生命周期假说的数据资料，同时也阐述了顾客在消费中寻求满足和令顾客满意的原因都有着很大的贡献。从实际角度来看，经济预测可以通过关注近期与市场有关联的变数来预测消费需求的发展。 我们的研究有几方面的局限性， 因此我们提出了几个未来的研究方向。我们发现在美国很多方面都是被限制的，所以当我们需要将他们推广到其它国家去时需要谨慎。不同国家的消费者的观念是不一样的。因为，他们有着不同的储蓄倾向，风险态度，长期导向等等，同时。随着消费的增长，消费效用与还本付息的相互作用还不太清楚。同时，我们也调研了一些任意性开支消费，发现不可任意支配的那部分开支，对那些有市场推销潜力的人事非常有用的 。
