1、 外文翻译 Will small stocks ever slow down Material Source: Money Author:Wang P Small-company shares have raced ahead of large-caps. Trying to hitch a ride now, though, can be risky. When it comes to investing in small companies, there are usually a couple of things you can be sure of. For starters, fas
2、t-growing but less established firms often shine in the early stages of a rally, as MONEY noted back in June 2009 (“Are Small-Caps Taking Root?“). And true to form, small-capitalization stocks rocketed about 100% in the first 12 months of this bull market. But shares of smaller firms-with stock mark
3、et values of $2 billion or less-are also more prone to fall in a financial panic than big, blue-chip stocks. Yet throughout most of this year, when the European debt crisis sent jitters throughout the global markets, small-caps kept plugging along. They hit a big speed bump in May, as did most equit
4、ies. But so far in 2010, when foreign shares have sunk and the S&P 500 is about flat, small stocks are still up nearly 4%. Rational exuberance Some of this may be due to fundamental factors. For instance, small firms moved aggressively to slash costs during the downturn and greatly improved their bo
5、ttom lines. But the market may also be favoring stocks that arent perceived to be exposed to Europes financial woes. Small companies are generally less tied to the global economy than are big, U.S.-based conglomerates. Indeed, while 14% of revenue generated by companies in the S&P 500 index comes fr
6、om Europe, only about 4% of small-company sales derive from that region, according to Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at Standard & Poors. This may help explain why small companies are forecast to enjoy profit growth of more than 133% in 2010-more than triple the growth rate for large stock
7、s. These compelling figures-and recent small-cap outperformance-havent gone unnoticed. Last year return-hungry investors poured about $8.4 billion in new cash into small-cap funds even as they yanked $4.7 billion out of other domestic stock portfolios. And already this year, investors have plowed an
8、other $7.7 billion into these funds. Is the ride almost over? Still, there are plenty of reasons you should think twice about committing big bucks to small stocks now. For one thing, its always risky to jump on a segment of the market thats been hot for so long. Plus, there are some indications that
9、 this small-stock surge has already begun to slow. While its true that Europes fiscal problems have shaken the broad stock market throughout the year, the biggest wave of volatility didnt take place until May, when investors began to fear that Europes slowdown could jeopardize the U.S. recovery. And
10、 since April 23, small stocks have fallen nearly 12%, while large-cap shares are off about 9%. “As long as GDP continues to grow, we expect a strong rebound in small-caps,“ says Samuel Dedio, manager of Artio U.S. Smallcap. “But right now economic uncertainty is creating a psychological headwind for
11、 all stocks.“ Also, your window of opportunity may have passed. Consider the following developments: The economic downturn is over. The best time to invest in small stocks is several months before a recession ends. But the consensus among economists is that the recession ended last summer. And inves
12、tments in small stocks tend to do poorly several months into a recovery . Small stocks have already enjoyed a historic run. The 112% gain for small-caps between March 2009 and this April marked one of the best rallies ever for small shares. But investments in these stocks in the 12 months following
13、100%-plus surges typically lead to losses. Small stocks have led the market for more than a decade. Small-cap dominance didnt just begin with this bull market. Since the end of 1999, small-caps have delivered annualized gains of 3.9%, vs. losses of 0.5% for large stocks. If history is a guide, this
14、trend will reverse and revert to the mean. Valuations are getting frothy. Even if the recovery stays on course, small-caps look less enticing than they did a year ago. “Based on current valuations, small-caps are significantly overpriced,“ says Jeremy Grantham, chief investment strategist for GMO. N
15、one of this means you should abandon small-fry stocks altogether. But it does mean you should take these steps to fine-tune your portfolio in case small-caps slow: 1. Book some profits now Financial advisers typically recommend keeping about a quarter to a third of your equity allocation in small-ca
16、ps. But theres a good chance your recent market gains may have pushed your small-cap stake above that target. So rebalance your portfolio by booking some of the spectacular gains youve enjoyed in your small-cap stocks and funds. And use those proceeds to invest in stocks that have lagged lately and
17、are undervalued as a result. 2. Tilt toward high-quality companies The recent market surge gave the biggest boost to many of the tiniest and junkiest small stocks. Meanwhile, bigger and higher-quality stocks in the small-cap universe-firms with tons of cash on their balance sheets havent done as wel
18、l. But after the markets got slammed in May, shares of the biggest and most profitable small-caps held up better. Plus, “higher-quality stocks offer your best opportunity to buy future growth at low prices,“ says Grantham. So within your small-cap holdings, favor funds that focus on companies with s
19、trong balance sheets, such as Royce Pennsylvania Mutual (PENNX) or Wasatch Small Cap Growth (WAAEX). Both are members of the MONEY 70, our list of recommended mutual funds and ETFs. 3. Broaden your small-cap portfolio Some of the fastest-growing small companies can be found overseas (outside of West
20、ern Europe). So stash about 5% to 10% of your equity portfolio in foreign small-stock funds that invest in expanding economies abroad. Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-U.S. Small Cap (VFSVX), for instance, is a stock index fund in the MONEY 70 that invests most of its assets in small companies headquarter
21、ed in Asia, Canada, and Latin America. By holding shares of both domestic and overseas small companies, youll be sure to benefit from faster-than-average growth-wherever it can be found. Too late to join the party? Historically, you make money in small stocks buying them before a recession ends If y
22、ou buy 12 -month returns Six months before 15.3% Three months before 19.2% Recession ends Three months after 2.1% Six months after -1.6% and small -caps tend to tumble after huge run-ups like the one they just had. Small-stock performance after 100%-plus rallies Six months after -16.3% Twelve months
23、 after -15.4% 小盘股票增速将放缓 资料来源： Money 作者： Wang Penelope 小型公司的股份领先于大盘股。虽然存在一定风险，但是它们正在尝试搭一次顺风车。 当投资小型公司时，你通常可以确定这样几件事。正如金钱杂志 2009 年 6月刊中某篇文章所提到的：初学者通常认为，快速成长但又尚未成熟的公司往往在反弹的初期会出彩。小型股票在牛市的头 12 个月迅速上升约百分之一百。但是，在价值 20 亿美元或 20 亿美元以下的股票市场中，小企业的股价在遇到金融危机时，相比大企业 的股价（如蓝筹股）更容易下跌。 然而纵观今年，当欧洲债务危机惊动整个全球市场时，小型公司的股票并
24、未退缩。他们在 5 月的时候与大多数股票一样遭遇了巨大的冲击。但是从 2010年伊始至今，当外国的股票一蹶不振， 标准 500 指数平稳时，小型公司的股票仍然上涨了近 4%。 合理的发展 基本因素可能导致这些结果。例如，在经济低迷时期，中小企业积极削减开支并且大大提高自己的底线。但是市场还是会倾向于那些没有陷入欧洲财务困境的股票。小公司与那些总部设在美国的大型综合企业相比，会发现小公司与全球经济的联系没有大型综合企业那么 紧密。然而，根据标准普尔指数高级分析师霍华德 希尔弗 布拉特 的分析，标普 500 中的 公司产生的 14%的收入来自欧洲，而只有 4%的小公司的销售来自这一地区。 这就能解
25、释为什么小公司预计 2010 年利润增长将超过 133%，相当于大型企业股票 3 倍的增长率。 这些引人注目的数字和近期小盘股市的突出表现，令人无法忽视。去年那些可望有回报的投资者往小盘基金股注入了 84 亿美元的资金，就意味着他们从其他国内股票投资组合中抽出了 47 亿美元。而今年，投资者在基金上又增加投资了 77 亿美元。 这样的行情快要结束了吗？ 如今有充 足的理由让你重新考虑是否要把大笔钱放在小型股票上。首先，突然要进入一个热门了很久的市场总是存在很大的风险。 另外，有些迹象表明小型公司股票的上涨已经开始有放缓的迹象。欧洲的财政问题确实已经动摇了整个外国股票市场，但是当投资者开始担心欧
26、洲的经济放缓可能会危及美国的经济复苏时，股市的最大波动并没有持续到 5 月。从4 月 23 日开始，小型股已经下跌了近 12%，而大型股票的股价则下跌了 9%。 美国小型企业的经理塞缪尔说： “只要国内生产总值持续增长，我们预期小型股将会出现强势反弹，但是现在经济的不确定性也将导致股民的逆向选 择。 ” 同样，你也许已经错过了那扇机遇之窗，不如考虑以下的发展： 经济低迷已经结束 投资小型股票的最佳时期是在经济衰退结束前的几个月。但是经济学家的共识是，经济衰退在去年夏天已经结束。而小型股票的投资者将进入为期几个月的恢复期。 小型股票已经享受了历史性的增长 对于小型股票来说， 112%的涨幅是自
27、2009 年 3 月到今年 4 月以后最高的一次。但是投资这些股票并且希望它们能在 12 个月内升幅达到 100%以上，通常是会失败的。 小型股票已经领导了市场十年之久 小型股票的主导地位并不是只产生于牛市。自 1999 年年末以来，小型股票交付了 3.9%的年率，相比同期大型股票的损失则要低 0.5%。如果以史为鉴，这一趋势将会逆转并恢复到平均。 估值趋向泡沫化 即使其处在复苏过程中，小型股票则没有去年同期看起来那么诱人了。GMO 首席投资战略家杰里 米格蓝瑟姆认为： “以当前的小型股票的估值而言，小型股票的股价被严重高估了。 ” 这并不意味着你应该完全放弃小型股。但它的确意味着如果小型股下
28、跌，你应该采取措施以调整你的投资组合。 1. 现在预计利润 财务顾问通常建议将你四分之一到三分之一的资金投资在小型股票上。但是现在有个好机会 是你最近的股市收益可能会提高你自身小型股票的目标收益。 因此，通过预计你在小盘股和基金的巨大收益，你可以调整你的投资组合并且利用这些收益去投资那些长期落后和最近被低估的股票。 2. 偏向于优质企业 最近市场的转好给予许多处于小型和较劣质的小型股票以鼓舞。与此同时， 即使是资产负债表上的显示有大量现金的较大且较优质的小型联合企业，它们的绩优股也没有在股票市场上有较好表现。 最大和最有利可图的小型股票在受到 5 月市场的影响时，股价也保持地比较稳定。另外，格
29、兰瑟姆说 “优质的股票提供给你以低价买到未来的增长的最佳机会 。 ”所以，以你拥有的小型股票的控股权，应该支持具有较强的资产负债表的公司，例如，罗伊斯宾夕法尼亚基金或者瓦萨奇的小盘成长股。它们都是金钱 70 的期刊成员，我们共同推荐的共同基金和交易所交易基金。 3. 扩大你的小型股投资组合 很多发展很快的小公司可以在海外上市（西欧境外）。因此，利用你约 5%到 10%的股票组合投资到外国的小盘股基金上，以此促进国外的经济。例如，富士指数先锋指出全球除了美国的小型股，你也可以把大部分资产投资在那些总部设在亚洲、加拿大和拉丁美洲的小公司的股票指数基金。通过控股国内和国外 的小公司，无论这些小公司在哪里，你一定会从中获得多于平均水平的收益。 来不及加入？ 从历史上看，你应在经济衰退结束前买进小型股票才能赚钱。 如果你买入 12 个月盈利 6 月前 15.3% 3 月前 19.2% 经济衰退结束 3 月后 2.1% 6 月后 -1.6% 正和不久前的情况一样，小型股票大幅 度上涨之后就开始暴跌。 小型股票在经济恢复后买入的表现： 6 月后 -16.3% 12 月后 -15.4
