1、 外文翻译 原文 Service Trade and Export Competitiveness: An Empirical Analysis Material S ource: http:/www4.fe.uc.pt/eefs/abstracts/nair- 54.pdf Author:Joy Mazumdar Liberalization of trade in services has been an ongoing part of the World Trade Organizations agenda in recent years under the auspices of th
2、e General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). Producer services such as transportation, telecommunications, management consulting, engineering consulting, banking, insurance, marketing and financial services have all become increasingly important both in their role in the domestic economy and in
3、international trade. Liberalization of trade in services was included as part of the WTO agenda based o n the expectation that increased trade in services will lead to significant welfare gains. These gains are expected to arise from the fact that services provide essential inputs in production and
4、also satisfy consumption directly, as in the case of transportation and telecommunication services. This paper examines whether service trade contributes to increased trade in manufactured goods. One argument put forth for liberalizing service trade is that service imports may be necessary, especial
5、ly for developing countries, to enhance their international competitiveness and boost exports (see, for example, Hoekman and Braga (1997), OECD). Markusen et al. (2000) note that “.imported services may provide crucial missing inputs which allow a country to produce and export goods in which the cou
6、ntry has a natural comparative advantage except for the missing input. This has the potential for huge surplus value. The Arabian gulf may have had huge oil supplies, but expertise was required to bring it to market. A few hundred million dollars worth of foreign expertise likely had a return of man
7、y billions of dollars.“ There are numerous other examples illustrating the role of foreign services in facilitating trade in goods. DHL Express is the largest international air express services provider in India. DHLs Worldwide Medical Express (WMX) range of temperature-controlled logistics solution
8、s for the pharmaceutical and life sciences industries in India facilitates Indias efforts to become a global outsourcing hub for the pharmaceutical industry and provides a single window that takes care of everything from packaging, documentation, en route tracking of shipments and proof that under d
9、istribution conditions the consignments have remained within defined temperature limits. Hitachi Ltd. used the services of UPS Supply Chain Solutions to implement a global distribution system for Hitachi Global Storage Technologies (GST). This helped Hitachi “gain a single, scalable source for conso
10、lidation, transportation, customs clearance, deconsolidation and direct delivery; they also tap specialized technology and systems designed to enhance speed and Flexibility.“ Hortense Vasquez Director of Worldwide Logistics and Warranty, Hitachi GST succinctly summed up the important role played by
11、UPS when he stated “UPS Supply Chain Solutions continuously strives to add value to our global distribution system so Hitachi GST can focus on what it does best-building a broad portfolio of world-class storage technology products.“ The quantitative literature using CGE modeling finds some evidence
12、that liberalization of trade in services has a large impact on exports (Robinson et al (1999). There are several possible mechanisms through which service imports could facilitate exports. Services could be an input into production so that service imports could increase both the output and export of
13、 goods. They could also reduce transportation costs/ information costs and therefore increase exports at any given level of output. Services may also facilitate fragmentation of production and hence lead to international outsourcing activities. Finally, country-specific services may be needed to exp
14、ort to a country C that is US services such as advertising and legal services may be needed to sell to the US market. The key questions we address in this paper are the following: Do service imports indeed help in increasing manufactured goods exports? Are there certain types of services that facili
15、tate exports more than others? Do service imports have a greater role in facilitating trade in developing countries than in developed countries? Our aim is to see whether service imports have an impact on exports at the economy wide level. Although it would be ideal to have data on service exports f
16、rom all countries, we focus on US service exports and US goods imports because of data limitations. There is a substantial theoretical literature incorporating the effects of producer services in international trade models. Several models treat producer services as intermediate inputs produced with
17、constant returns to scale, and are based on the Ricardo-Viner framework (Jones and Ruane, 1990) or the Heckscher-Olin framework (Hirsch, 1989; Melvin, 1989; Burgess, 1990; Djajic and Kierskowski, 1989). Other models (Markusen 1989; Francois, 1990; Ishikawa 1992; Marrewijck et. Al 1996, 1997; Markuse
18、n et. al 2000) have considered producer services as exhibiting increasing returns to scale. Since services are inputs into production the relation between service trade and goods trade is closely linked to the one that looks at the connection between factor mobility and goods trade (see Mundell(1957
19、), Markusen (1983), Svennson (1984) and Markusen and Svensson (1985). Mundell (1957) pointed out that trade in factors and trade in goods can be substitutes. However, Markusen (1983) shows how trade in factors and goods can be complements when goods trade is not based on factor endowments. On the ot
20、her hand, Markusen (1988) shows how free trade in service inputs can make trade in final goods redundant since the final goods price will be equalized across countries. Other papers have emphasized the role of services in reducing transaction costs. In Jones and Kierzkowski (1990), increasing return
21、s and advantages from specialization encourage firms to fragment the production process into production blocks that are located in different countries. Services (such as administration, transportation and financial services) are required to connect and coordinate such production blocks. Service trad
22、e therefore makes such fragmentation possible and leads to increased trade in intermediate goods. Deardorff (2000) has examined trade services which he describes as “services the demand for which arise directly from trade itself. “Many services are essential in facilitating trade in goods and other
23、services (other than themselves). The most obvious example is that of transportation services needed to trade goods. Reduction of barriers to trade in services, like any other intermediate input, reduces the cost of providing these services and can stimulate trade in the final goods. The service and
24、 goods trade link that we seek to capture in this paper is the one in which services imports are an input in the production of goods. Trade in this framework will be due to differentiated goods instead of endowments and so, as Markusen (1983) points out, imports of service inputs can increase export
25、s. The model can be interpreted, under certain conditions, as one in which service imports can reduce the costs of doing trade (such as transportation and communication) as well (see Appendix 3). Service imports can increase both the output of goods and their exports. Our traded goods sector is mode
26、led as being monopolistically competitive. We assume that all services are imported and are available at world prices in the absence of any distortions. We note that while we expect imports of producer services to stimulate goods exports into a country, this may not occur if the imported services ar
27、e used mostly in the non traded sector. In order to incorporate this possibility, we have a traded and a non-traded sector in our model, both of which use imported services as inputs. This leads to the possibility that service imports may actually decrease goods exports, contrary to conventional wis
28、dom. This is due to a Rybczynski type effect which occurs because the expansion of the non trade sector due to the inflow of services draws resources away from the traded sector and reduces the size of the latter. The framework that we use for estimating the impact of service imports on goods export
29、s is linked to two strands of the empirical literature in international trade. The first one relates sectoral output to factor endowments (e.g., Harrigan (1995b), Bernstein and Weinstein (2002). The second is the large literature on estimating gravity equations that relate exports to GDP of trading
30、countries. Our paper is linked to papers that relate sectoral exports to either country GDP or sectoral output (see, for example, Harrigan (1996), Feenstra et al. (2001).) In our framework, we relate sectoral exports to country factor endowments. We have country endowments as explanatory variables i
31、nstead of sectoral output (or GDP) since we are looking the determinants of sectoral output, which includes endowments and services. Our emphasis, however, is not on the differences between various manufacturing industries but rather on the differences between manufacturing and other sectors of the
32、economy (mostly non traded services and the agriculture sectors). In our framework, service imports behave like endowments. They are, of course, endogenous, unlike what we usually assume about endowments, and depend on restrictions on service trade among other things. Our key results indicate that,
33、on average, service imports have a significant effect on exports in the case of developing countries but not in the case of industrialized nations. The positive impact is significant in most cases for business and telecom. There is not much evidence that access to transport services helps exports. F
34、inancial services are consistently negative, and significant in most cases, perhaps because of the Rybczynski type effect that could occur if these services are used mostly in sectors other than manufacturing. Our results lend support to the notion that, in general, services and goods are complement
35、s in trade rather than substitutes. In recent years, there have been ongoing multilateral negotiations regarding the liberalization of international trade in services such as transportation, management consulting, engineering consulting, banking, insurance, marketing and finance. Apart from the dire
36、ct gains experienced by the service industries, it has been argued that liberalization of service trade may facilitate goods trade among countries. We develop a theoretical model analyzing the impact of trade in services on manufactured goods trade, and test the results empirically. The theoretical
37、model predicts that the effect of overall (country level) service imports on exports of the tradeable sector can be positive or negative. The sign would depend on the whether the sector uses services more or less intensively compared to the non-traded sector. If services are used more intensively in
38、 the traded sector then effect of service imports will be definitely positive. If the traded sector uses imported services less intensively compared to the non-traded sector then effect of service imports is ambiguous. It could be negative if the imported services intensity of the non-traded sector
39、is considerably higher compared to the traded sector. Our results indicate that service imports in general are more important for developing countries compared to industrialized nations in terms of providing essential inputs required for either production or for the trading pro cess itself. Access t
40、o business and telecommunication services helps exports. The availability of transportations services does not necessarily stimulate exports. Financial services seem to have a negative effect on exports. This could be because they are used more intensively in the non traded sector in developing coun
41、tries. An important caveat to keep in mind is that these results are based on data on cross border trade in services only and does not include services provided through affiliates. The provision of services through affiliates may be particularly important for financial services. So, it is possible t
42、hat the negative effect of financial services may disappear once we take this mode of service provision into account. One should also keep in mind that financial services import data does not include foreign capital inflow. It is possible therefore that the latter is positively correlated with goods
43、 exports while the former is not. Our results lend support to the notion that, in general, services and goods are complements in trade rather than substitutes. Our analysis has important policy implications for trade negotiations: even if a country is hesitant to liberalize all types of service trad
44、e, it may be worthwhile to liberalize certain kinds of service trade that facilitate greater exports. The positive impact of certain types of services, such as telecommunication and business, on manufactured goods trade provides a politically persuasive argument for liberalizing service trade in the
45、se areas. 译文 服务贸易和出口竞争力：一个实证分析 资料来源 : http:/www4.fe.uc.pt/eefs/abstracts/nair-54.pdf 作者： Joy Mazumdar 服务贸易自由化已是近年来世界贸易组织根据服务贸易总协定（ GATS）的议程的一部分。如无论是在其国内经济中的作用和国际贸易 ,交通、电信、管理咨询、工程咨询、银行、保险、营销和金融服务工商业支 援服务，都变得越来越重要。服务贸易自由化成为世贸组织议程的一部分是在其列为增加期望，服务贸易将导致严重的福利收益的基础上。这些收益预期产生是在生产服务提供了必要的投入，并满足消费的事实上，如运输和电信服
46、务。 本文探讨是否有助于提高制成品贸易中的服务贸易。一个论点提出了服务贸易自由化对服务进口可能是必要的，特别是对发展中国家，用以提高其国际竞争力和扩大出口（如， Hoekman 和 Braga（ 1997 年）所述，经合组织）。 Markusen等（ 2000）指出，“ . 服务进口可能提供重要的投入，在自然比较优势情况下允许一个国家生产和出口在该国的商品，当然短缺资源输入除外。这存在着庞大的剩余价值潜力。如，阿拉伯海湾地区可能有巨大的石油供应，但专业知识，才能将它推向市场。几百亿美元的外国专才可能有一个价值数十亿美元的回报。” 有许多说明了外国服务在促进货物贸易中的作用的其他例子。 DHL
47、快递公司是印度全球最大的国际航空快递服务提供商。 DHL 的全球医疗快递（ WMX）为在印度的努力使印度成为了制药行业的全球外包中心，它提供了一个制药和生命科学等行业的温度控制的物流解决方案，从包装开始，照顾一切文件，跟踪运输，在规定的温度限 制下运输和分布货物 .Hitachi 有限公司使用的仍然是UPS 供应链解决方案的服务，以实施一项日立环球存储技术公司（ GST）的全球分销系统。这有助于日立“获得一个单一，整合，运输，报关，分拨和直接交付可伸缩的来源，他们还挖掘专业技术和设计，以提高速度和灵活性的系统。” 国际物流和保证组织专家 Hortens Vasquez，在日立简洁地概括了 UP
48、S 发挥的重要作用时，表示，“ UPS 供应链解决方案，其服务不断更新使日立全球分销系统可以专注于他们做的最好的 共建广泛产品组合的世界级存储技术的产品。“资料定量使用 CGE 模型分析，发现一些证据表明，服务贸易自由化对出口产生很大的影响（罗宾逊等人（ 1999）。 有几种可能的机制，使服务进口可以促进出口。服务可以是一到生产输入，这样既可以增加服务进口的产量和出口货物，还可以降低运输成本 /信息成本，从而增加在任何给定产品的出口产出水平。服务也可能促进生产分散，从而导致国际外包活动。最后，国家特定的服务可能需要出口到一个特定国家，如美国服务，其广告和法律服务可能需要出售到美国市场。 本文中
49、的关键问题是：做服务确实有助于增加制成品出口？是否有某些类型的服务促进出口比他国多？服务进 口在促进发展中国家贸易比国家中起更大的作用？我们的宗旨是在经济层面上服务进口是否会对出口造成影响。鉴于取得来自所有国家的服务出口数据很难，我们专注于美国的服务出口和美国商品的限制进口的数据。 有大量的理论文献提出分析生产性服务业影响的国际贸易模型。作为中间的几个模型，将生产性服务业，生产规模的不断投入与回报，并根据Ricardo-Viner模型 (Jones and Ruane, 1990) 或 Heckscher-Olin 模型 (Hirsch, 1989; Melvin, 1989; Burgess, 1990; Djajic and Kierskowski, 1989)及其他模型 (Markusen 1989; Francois, 1990; Ishikawa 1992; Marrewijck et. Al 1996, 1997; Markusen et. al 2000)，分析规模报酬递增的生产者服务业。 由于服务投入到生产之间的服务贸易和货物贸易的关系是紧密相连的，并期待在流动性因素之间的连接货物贸易 (见 Mundell(1957), Mar
