1、 外文翻译 原文 The competitiveness of agricultural export trade of Jilin Province Measurement and Analysis Material Source: Free Papers Down load Center Author:Lee Dong Abstract: This paper considers the international competitiveness of agricultural production in Poland. Competitiveness was measured in te
2、rms of domestic resource cost (DRC) ratios for three farm sizes and eight commodities. The results highlight that for the period 1996 to 1998 Polish crop production was more internationally competitive than livestock farming. The most internationally competitive crops of those analyzed were rapeseed
3、 and potatoes. During the period, however, international competitiveness worsened as international commodity prices fell. There is an inverse relationship between DRCs and farm size. This is an important result as Polish production is relatively fragmented and the degree of structural change has bee
4、n slow. Acknowledgement This research was conducted as part of component A of the EU Phare pro ject P9704-01-03/04/13/17 which provided technical advice to the Ministerwo Rolnictwa Rozwoju Wsi(Ministry of Agriculture and Food Economy - MAFE) in shaping agricultural policies through economic analyses
5、. 1. INTRODUCTION The ability of Polish agriculture to deal with rising competitive pressures from trade liberalization and future accession to the EU will have a bearing on the overall macroeconomic fortunes of the nation as a whole. The argufied sector is a major component of the Polish economy, a
6、ccounting for 12 per cent of total exports, 30 per cent of employment and 9 percent of GDP in 1998 (MAFE, 1999). Relative changes in competitiveness compared to international markets and existing EU members will have an effect on the development of agriculture and regional standards of living. This
7、article considers two key questions: how internationally competitive is Polish agriculture? and how does price competitiveness vary between farm sizes? In dealing with these questions the main methodological approach employed is the estimation of domestic resource costs (DRCs). The paper is organize
8、d as follows: The next section presents a brief overview of the structure of farming in Poland and how this has evolved during transition. Section 3 outlines the methodology employed for analyzing competitiveness and the data used in the analysis are discussed in section 4. The DRC estimations are r
9、eported in section 5 and the conclusion outlines for which agricultural products Poland is internationally competitive. 2. FARM STRUCTURES Unlike most other CEECs, Poland did not extensively collectivize its agriculture under communism. By 1989, private plots and family farms accounted for approxima
10、tely eighty percent of total agricultural area (TAA). State farms accounted for the remaining fifth of TAA. The privatization of state farms began in 1991 with a special agency created to manage the process - the Agencja Wlasnosci Rolnej Skarbu Panstwa (AWRSP). The AWRSP has been responsible for adm
11、inistering and privatizing agricultural properties that belonged to the state as state owned farms or had been transferred to the State Land Fund in return for a pension (Milczarek, 2000). By the end of 1996 the Agency had taken over about 4.5 million hectares as well as accompanying fixed and curre
12、nt assets (Safin and Guba, 2000). As the size of family farms has been historically small in Poland, estimating the number of farm holdings is problematic. The 1996 Polish Agricultural Census defined agricultural holdings as units with at least one hectare of land but recorded the number of units be
13、low this threshold. On this basis, it was estimated that there were just over one million holdings with between 0.1 and 1.0 hectares of land, occupying less than 2.2 % of TAA. Just over two million holdings of greater than 1 hectare were recorded (Table 1). The majority of these holdings are of less
14、 than five hectares. At the same time, about 35.7% of the total agricultural area was cultivated by 8.4% of all farms, each with more than 15 hectares (Safin and Guba, 2000). Estimates by Szemberg (1999) suggest that only farms above 15 hectare can generate an income above the poverty line for one f
15、ull-time person. Farms with less than five hectares are heavily dependent on other off-farm sources of employment or social security benefits. As recorded in Table 1, the number of farm holdings has steadily decreased in the 1990s, from over 2.1 million in 1990 to 1.99 million in 1998. This trend re
16、flects a withdrawal of labour from agriculture in a period of falling farm incomes caused by a cost-price squeeze and fall in real government protection to agriculture. However, it should be noted that despite the worsening terms of trade, the rate of withdrawal has been relatively slow: the number
17、of holdings has declined by about 0.7 per cent per annum. Looking at changes within size cohorts an interesting polarization is apparent. The number of 1 to 2 hectare holdings has risen from 378,300 to 449,500 since 1990 and the number of holdings with 15 hectares or more has also grown. In contrast
18、, the number of medium sized farms (by Polish standards) has fallen considerably, especially in the 5 to 10 hectare category. A number of factors have led to this trend. First, land sales have seen a reallocation of land to some larger producers especially where there has been a degree of foreign in
19、vestment. Second, farmers pensions are generous by Polish standards. To qualify for a farmers pension an individual must farm more than one hectare. There is some evidence that in some cases the purchase of farm holdings or how they have been registered has been influenced by household strategies to
20、 qualify for farmers pensions (Szemberg, 1999). This polarization has left Poland with a wide array of farm sizes which has potentially far reaching consequences for competitiveness and a methodology for investigation is presented in the next section. 3. METHODOLOGY Domestic Resource Costs (DRCs) Th
21、e DRC ratio is a measure of the relative efficiency of domestic production. The DRC measures the relative efficiency of domestic production in terms of its international cost competitiveness. The DRC compares the opportunity costs of domestic production to the value added it generates (Tsakok, 1990)
22、. The numerator is the sum of the costs of using domestic primary resources - land, labor and capital - and of non-traded inputs. The denominator is the value-added in border prices. 4. DATA SOURCES AND ASSUMPTIONS In assessing the competitiveness of Polish agricultural products, eight main commodit
23、ies are considered (bread wheat, rye, sugar beet, rapeseed, potatoes, milk, beef and pork meat). These products were chosen because of their relative importance in Polish agricultural output. The estimation of DRCs utilized a number of data sources: the statistical yearbooks of Poland, agricultural
24、statistical yearbook, statistical yearbook of foreign trade, custom office data, Agency for Agricultural Markets data and industry estimates, labor information on port charges and Instytut Ekonomiki Rolnictwa i Gospodarki Zywnosciowej (IERiGZ) farm level survey data.1 IERiGZ conduct a survey to just
25、 over 1,000 farms annually, collecting information on input and output prices, quantities and yields. In addition, information on the five largest farms analyzed is derived from questionnaires prepared by the authors. 4.1 Output Prices Social prices for outputs and tradable inputs were taken as bord
26、er prices (export / import parity prices), adjusted to the farm level by port and handling charges, transport, storage and maintenance costs (where appropriate). The adjusted border prices are seen to be appropriate social prices for outputs and tradable inputs because these price represent the oppo
27、rtunity costs of domestic production. For non-traded inputs (factors of production) because they are not normally traded internationally, adjusted border prices cannot be used for deriving social prices. For these factors (land, labor and capital) their social price is said to be its value in a real
28、istic alternative use (i.e. the social price of unskilled labor in agriculture is taken to be the average wage of unskilled labor in manufacturing). Import and export data was taken from Glwny Urzad Cel. Port charges are based on information from the enterprise Port Ustka and the enterprise Port Gda
29、nsk. For products for which Poland is a net exporter, an average f.o.b. export parity price was taken as the unadjusted reference price. For products for which Poland is a net importer, average c.i.f. import parity prices were used. Two problems may emerge with the selection of import and export par
30、ity prices. First, a problem may arise where the farm level good is not traded internationally (as with liquid milk).For Poland the export parity price for skimmed milk powder (SMP) was taken (as Poland is a net exporter), which was adjusted back to farm level with an adjustment for the prevailing p
31、rocessing margin and conversion coefficient between raw milk and SMP. A second issue may arise where the quality of the traded good differs from the quality of domestic production. This is not so much of an issue when the export parity price is taken as the lower quality will be reflected in lower u
32、nit values at the border. For import parity prices the issue however remains so that where the quality of Polish production was recognized as being lower than the imported equivalent, a suitable price adjustment was made. 4.2 Input Prices Private input prices and quantities together with information
33、 on yields were taken from the IERiGZ surveys and the questionnaires to the largest five prod ucers. The IERiGZ sample was divided into two groups: small farms (3-10 hectares) and medium sized farms (greater than 10 hectares (Table 2). The largest five farms were selected to give a flavor of the bes
34、t performers in Poland but should not be treated as representative. All the private prices used were average national prices, and no substantial analysis on a regional or sub-regional level was made. Labor costs were based on zloty values with different levels for skilled and unskilled laborite soci
35、al value of unskilled labor employed in labour was taken to be the wage of unskilled workers in the industrial sector. The social value of skilled labor was taken to be the average wage rate of skilled labor in industry. The opportunity cost of capital is based on the observed real interest rate obt
36、ainable following the approach detailed in Monke and Pearson (1989). The social price of land should be measured as its rental value in the most profitable alternative agricultural use. For example, if rye production were to represent the only alternative to wheat production, the social cost of land
37、 for the wheat activity would be represented by the social profits (excluding land) from the production of rye (Monke and Pearson, 1989). However, a single clear alternative is often not evident as systems vary in terms of riskiness and the desirability of crop rotation. Following Pearson et al. (19
38、87), an average of suitable commodity alternatives was taken for deriving social land prices, as social values would probably fall somewhere in this range. 4.3 Farm Structure For all the products analyzed, the DRCs were estimated for the three farm size groups. Such desegregation helps take into acc
39、ount the variations in input use, yields and other production costs between farm sizes. For each size group, DRCs were estimated for the years 1996 to 1998. Table 3 records the average area devoted to particular commodities or average number of animals by the three farm types analyzed, as estimated
40、by IERiGZ officials. 4.4 Marginal Production The closer the DRC to 1, the more marginal is Polands comparative advantage or disadvantage in the production of that particular commodity, and enterprises in this range are most susceptible to changes in world market prices and exchange rates. In contras
41、t, the further the DRC is below 1, the more robust the level of international comparative advantage. It should be noted that the DRCs are estimated here are farm size averages. Some producers, especially those entering or leaving the sector as marginal enterprises, may be considerably more or less e
42、fficient than the average, and so vary in their susceptibility to adverse changes in international prices or exchange-rate shifts. 译文 波兰的农业国际竞争力 资料来源 : Post-Communist Economies 作者： Matthew Gorton1 摘要： 本文分析了波兰农业生产的国际竞争力。竞争力是用国内资源成本（ DRC）来衡量，与三个农业规模比率与三农场规模的条款与八个商品有关。研究结果强调，在 1996 至 1998 年期间波兰的种植业产量比畜
43、牧业更具有国际竞争力。其中最具国际竞争力的农作物是油菜和土豆。在此期间，由于国际商品价格下跌，国际竞争力下降。国内资源成本与农业规模之间存在着反比关系。这是一个重要的 结果，因为波兰的生产相对分散，结构变化一直进展缓慢。 致谢 本研究是欧盟 Phare 项目 P9704-01-03/04/13/17 的一个组成部分。它给Ministerwo Rolnictwa Rozwoju Wsi（农业和粮食经济部 - MAFE）提供技术咨询，并通过经济分析，制定农业政策。 1.简介 波兰的农业能够应对不断增长的贸易自由化竞争压力，今后加入欧盟将对整个国家经济有宏观的影响。农业和粮食部门是波兰经济的重要组成
44、部分，占出口总额的 12%，就业率的 30%和 1998 年国内生产总值（ MAFE， 1999 年）的 9%。与国际市场的变化和现有的欧盟成员国国际竞争力的对比，将对农业发展和生活的区域标准有影响。本文考虑两个关键问题： 波兰的农业国际竞争力是怎么样的？以及农业规模与价格竞争力之间是如何变化的？在处理这些问题，采用的主要方法途径，主要是对国内资源成本（ DRCs）的评估。 本文的结构如下：接下来的部分介绍了波兰的农业结构，并说明过渡期间的演变过程。第 3 节概述分析了竞争力和在第 4 节讨论分析的数据采用的方法。在第 5 节估计国内资源成本，并且概述了波兰农产品国际竞争力的结论。 2.农业结
45、构 与其它大多数中东 欧国家相比，波兰农业没有广泛的共产主义。到 1989年，自留地，家庭农场约占农业总面积 (TAA)的 80%。国营农业占剩余农业总面积的五分之一。 国营农场的私有化始于 1991年创建的特殊机构 - Agencja Wlasnosci Rolnej Skarbu Panstwa（ AWRSP）。 AWRSP 一直负责管理和私有化属于国家，或者国家拥有的农业资产，转移国家场或已土地基金作为私人财产（ Milczarek， 2000）。回归国家土地基金农艺性状的责任。到 1996 年底该机构已接管约 450 万公顷土地，伴随固定资产和 和流动资产的流动（萨芬和古坝， 2000
46、）。 由于波兰家庭农场的规模历来小，估计农产品持股数量是有问题的。 1996年波兰的农业普查，将至少有一公顷的土地作为农业用地的单位作为普查对象，但普查结果低于这个固定值。 在此基础上，据估计有超过百万人拥有用 0.1 到 1.0 公顷的土地，少于 TAA的 2.2%。两百万多万人拥有大于 1 公顷的土地（见表 1）。大部分拥有不到五公顷土地。与此同时，约有 35.7%的农业总耕地面积由 8.4%的农场所有，每个农产都超过 15 公顷（萨芬和古坝， 2000 年）。 Szemberg（ 1999 年） 估计表明，只有 15 公顷以上的农场才可以产生一个全职的人在 贫困线以上的收入。少于五公顷的
47、农场依赖于其他非农就业或社会保障福利的依赖。 如表 1 中记录，农产品的持股数量稳步下降，在 20 世纪 90 年代，从 1990年超过 210 万到超过 1998 年的 199 万。这一趋势反映了农业劳动力的撤出与农场价格挤压和政府对农业的真正保护有关。但是，应该指出的是，尽管贸易条件恶化，对撤出率一直比较缓慢：在持股数量大约每年下降 0.7%。农业规模呈现明显的两极分化。自 1990 年以来的持有 1 到 2 公顷的人数已经从 378300 到449500 人。持有 15 公顷以上的人也有所增加。与此相反，对中小型农场的数量（由波兰标准）有大幅度下降，特别是在 5 至 10 公顷的类别。有
48、许多因素导致了这一趋势。首先，卖地使得土地重新分配，尤其是一些较大的外国投资的支持。第二，农民退休金丰（波兰标准）。获得农民的养老金必须拥有顷以上的农场。有一些证据表明，在某些情况下，农场控股或如何购买已登记的农场的策略已经影响到农民养老金领取的资格（ Szemberg， 1999）。这种两极分化使得波兰的农场规模具有潜在竞争力。调查是在下一节介绍。 3.方法 国内资源成本 (DRCs） 国内资源成本比率是对相关国内生产效率的衡量。 DRC 将国际成本竞争力与国内生产比较。 DRC 比较国内生产值的机会成本增加变化（ Tsakok， 1990）。分子是第一资源利用国内成本的总和 土地， 劳动力
49、和资本和非贸易投入。分母是边境价格的增加。 4.数据来源和假设 评估波兰农产品的竞争力，有八个主要商品（面包小麦，黑麦，甜菜，油菜，土豆，牛奶，牛肉和猪肉）。这些产品是因为他们在波兰农业产量的中的重要性而被选出的。估计的波兰的国内资源成本所使用的数据来源和数量：波兰统计年鉴，农业统计年鉴，外贸统计年鉴，自定 义 Office 的数据，代理农业市场数据和业内人士估计，在港口收费和 Instytut Ekonomiki Rolnictwa i Gospodarki Zywnosciowej（ IERiGZ）的农场水平调查数据。 IERiGZ每年收集超过 1000 份数据，投入和产出价格，数量和产量的信息。此外，分析五大农场的信息是由作者编制的。 4.1 产品价格 产出和投入社会流通的价格作为边境价格（出口 /进口的比价），调整到码头和装卸费，运输，储存和维护费用（如适用）的农场水平。调整后的边境价格被认为是用于输出和输入适当的社会流 通价格，因为这些价格代表了国内生产的机会成本。对于非贸易投入（生产要素），因为他们一般都不会参与国际贸易，边境价格调整不能用于产生社会价格。这些因素（土地，劳动力和资本）的
