1、探析中美贸易逆差的原因及影响摘要:近年来,随着中美经贸关系的日益紧密,分析不断扩大的美中贸易逆差具有十分重要的意义。本文主要研究了美中贸易逆差的原因和影响,结构安排如下:首先交代了研究背景,通过一些数据介绍了美中贸易逆差的现状,指出研究此问题的必要性。第二部分,分别采用国际收支平衡原理和要素禀赋定理两种方法进行分析,得出美国的国内政策是造成美国经常项目赤字的主要原因的结论,同时指出了一些流行说法的纰漏之处。可以看到,在全球储蓄结构巨大失衡的情况下,单单通过削减美国财政赤字或通过人民币升值,都不能解决巨额美中贸易逆差。这一问题的解决需要中美双方的政策协调。 下载 Abstract:As U.S.
2、-China economic ties have expanded substantially over the past ten years, the significance of recognizing the forces behind the trade imbalance is looming larger as w Sino-U.S. bilateral trade and the different views on the U.S.-China trade imbalat people argue on different grouaused by Chinas lack
3、of market access, lack of policy transparency, human rights violation and currency manipulat not as serious as the U.S. described because of statistical difference; that statistics based on Rules of Origin cannot reflect the situation of Sino-U.S. trade balance and that U.S. export control against C
4、hina is a major obstacle for bilateral trade balanalysis, while some of them have made contributions in certain extant in solving the puzluding both a discussion of the comparative advantage and macroeconomic approaches to the defi. 关键词:贸易不平衡 美中贸易逆差 贸易政策 比较优势 Keywords:trade imbalance U.S. trade defi
5、cit trade policy competitive advantage .Introduction U.S. and China have mutual economic and trade intereed rapidly since 1979, but the tensions generated by a growing trade imbalance have become a concern to both governme6.3 billion in December to $17.9 billion in January, 2006. Some concerns that
6、U.S.-China trade are legitimate, and the U.S. government uses a variety of measures to deal with tges, restrictions on exports of militarily sensitive items and enforcement actions against illegal trade practiwith China alone accounted for about $162 billion in 2004, or nearly one-quarter of the tot
7、al U.S. trade deficit, up from a negligible share in the mid-1980s, has prompted calls for new barriers to U.S. imports from China and pressure on China to allow further appreciation of the yan implicit assumption that a reduction in the U.S. trade deficit with China will translate into a similar re
8、duction in the nations overall trade defimbalance 1.The macroeconomic approach The macroeconomic interpretation of the trade and current account deficits is that they are caused by an imbalance in domestic saving and investmh to finance domestic investment, so they use foreign capital to bridge that
9、 it spenderived as follows: Income(Y) = Consumption(C) + Business Investment (I) + Government Expenditures (G) + Net Exports (ExportsX-Imports M) or Y=C+I+G+(X-M). By an alternate definition, Income(Y) =Consumption(C) + Taxes (T) + Household Savings(S) or Y=C+T+S. Solving the above two equations yie
10、lds: T+S=I+G+(X-M). Rearranging the equation yields: (X-M) = (S-I)+(T-G),or the trade deficit equals the saving ?Cinvestment shortfall plus the budget deficit So, contrary to popular conception, the trade deficit is not caused by unfair trade practices abroad or declining industrial competitiveness
11、at home1. Trade deficits reflect the flow of capital across international borders, flows that are determined by national rates of savings and investmcing a nations trade defi the recently implemented restrictions on apparel imports, will do little but redistribute U.S. imports across trading partner
12、s or produhe beginning of Chinese incursions into U.S. markets and perhaps also just the beginning of U.S. trade policy actions toward Cheel and auto parts, thus entering into competition with two additional domestic industries that have benefited historically from import protecttries from Chinese c
13、ompetitors, how might other exporters to the U.S. market respond? In contrast to the case of apparel and textiles, in the steel and auto sectors Chinas main competitors in the U.S. market are not just other developing countries but also the European Union, Japan, Korea, and other industrialized coun
14、tr trade agreements with the United States? Will a system evolve along the lines of the 2002 steel safeguard, in which U.S. tariffs were applied on a non-preferential (MFN) basis, but with substantial product exclusions favoring specific foreign suppliers? Will affected firms increase foreign direct
15、 investment in the United States, thus allowing their U.S. subsidiaries to use the domestic protection seeking process from an insiders perspective? Like China-specific trade policies at the level of individual products, a stronger yuan may benefit other U.S. trading partners, especially ones that h
16、ave recently lost market share due to depreciation of the U.S. dollar against their own currencl purchases of U.S. dollars, which would likely put upward pressure on U.S. interest rates and thus moderate domestic spendde imbalance, although it is not necessary to address the fundamental cause of the
17、 deficit, which lies in current macroeconomic conditions at his a low-middle-income coun$1,000 in 2004. Average hourly labor compensation for urban manufacturing workers is only about US$1, accounting for 4.7 percent of the U.S. leer the U.S. dollar, the average hourly labor cost in China still woul
18、d amount to only U.S.$2, less than 10 per cent of U.S. leian manufacturing capacity and export orders to China, especially from Japan, Taiwan Province, and South Korea, whose investments are export-orieno export to United Sta. In the beginning labor-intensive export processing, such as apparel, foot
19、wear, toys, furniture, moved to China, while gradually tech-intensive export processing, such as notebook computers, hard disc-drives and chip industry manufacturing has also moved here, integrated into the global manufacturing and supply chds of electronic goods with a “Made in China“ tag in the U.
20、S. marreat number of export-oriented production lines from leading Asian economies into Chequipment and machine tools for export purposes and its domestic marhe United Sta overseas-funded companies totaled U.S.$116 billion, accounting for more than half of the mainlands total imports, while import f
21、rom U.S. was just 7.5 percent of the totrade deficit with China is not about Chinas currency exchange rU.S. manufacturers to lose their comparative advantages to other exportU.S.-China trade is benefiting China at American expense dont hold up on close examinatto account cross-border trade in servic
22、es, where U.S. surpluses with China are steadily increasy in areas such as tourism, insurance and business and financial services all areas where American companies are highly competitights also will boost the U.S. services surplus by making it easier for American companies to collect royalties and
23、license fees in Chet merchandise trade deficits with China and we can expect them to grow in the futial U.S. estimates of Americas trade deficit with China are overstah shipping, and the treatment of Chinas trade through Hong Kong, systematically understate the value of U.S. exports to China and ove
24、rstate the value of U.S. imports from Ch now calculate that the true U.S.-China merchandise trade deficit is slightly less than 75 percent of the official U.S. estimaes another reason for not worrying about U.S.-China deficocessed“ goods assembled from imported parts and componew-how needed to produ
25、ce these exports are mostly supplied by companies headquartered in the United States, Japan, South Korea, Europe, Hong Kong and Taiations to China from locations elsewhere in Asia in order to take advantage of low-cost Chinese lains from U.S.-China trrts derives from imported parts and components, much of the benefit from sale of these exports does not accrue to Chinese investors or work of foreign ownership and investment in Chinese export industries mean that many of the profits are repatriated abr
