1、AUTOTECHThe Mother Of All Tech BattlesFebruary 2019Dealmakers in TechnologyImportant DISCLOSURes appear at the back of this reportGP Bullhound LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority GP Bullhound Inc is a member of FINRASubscribe to receive GP Bullhound Research and News o
2、n WWW .GPBULLHOUND .COM /SUBSCRIBE /AUTOTECH 301 THE VIEW FROM GP BULLHOUND030917 EXPERT VIEW152730 EXPERT VIEW36 EXPERT VIEW43 EXPERT VIEW49 EXPERT VIEWMAGNUS Olsson, Careem56 EXPERT VIEWDieter May, BMW58 CHAPTER 5: Future Battlefronts61 EXPERT VIEWDarren Jobling, Zerolight63 EXPERT VIEWTimo BUETEF
3、ISCH, Cooltra65 EXPERT VIEWLewis Horne, Uniti58 CHAPTER 6: JOCKEYING FOR POSITION71 METHODOLOGYTHE VIEWFrom GP BullhoundFrom the moment that Karl Benz built the first petrol-powered internal combustion engine automobile in Mannheim in 1885,car culture has relentlessly spread across the globe. Its im
4、pact has been nothing less than extraordinary: Das Auto has transformed global economies, shaped entire societies and tested the limits of engineering time and time again.It is unquestionably one of the most important inventions in history. As it stands today, if the industry were an economy, it wou
5、ld be among the ten largest on earth.More than 100 years after the petrol- powered car passed go for the first time- and despite worldwide sales at a record high in 2018 - stress fractures are starting to appear. Tesla is on track to outsell bothBMW and Mercedes-Benz in the US, car sales in China ar
6、e declining for the first time in decades, and several global automakers have issued profit warnings in recent months.Indeed, the multi-trillion-dollar industryis facing unprecedented change across a number of fronts, including: Social: urbanisation and changing trends in car ownership Political: re
7、gulation and pollution levels Technological: autonomous driving, electrification and connectivityOver the next 10-15 years, four trends are set to converge and potentially change the industry forever. They are: Electrification, autonomous driving, shared mobility, and connected experiences.Car maker
8、s are, consequently, confronted with a myriad of challenges, particularlyin relation to design and manufacturing, alongside changes to the business model and customer relationships.In this new world, profits are expected to be redirected to areas where car makers lack prior knowledge and experience,
9、 while investment needs to be routed towards technology that in many cases remains untested.As a result, we will undoubtedly see the emergence of new and powerful players in the mobility ecosystem.Its common to compare the trials and tribulations of automotive with those of the mobile device industr
10、y, where value has shifted from hardware to software and ecosystems and, ultimately, has led to the demise of several global giants.In this fast-moving world, one thing is for sure: auto industry leaders have no desire to see history repeat itself.Sven RaeymaekersPartnerGuillaume BonnetonPartner435-
11、3920-24MACRO-ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORSAre Impacting The Automotive IndustryImpacted by a number of macro-environmental factors, the multi-trillion-dollar auto industry is facing unprecedented change, with a number of social, political and technological drivers shifting and altering how businesses will p
12、erform for years to come.SocialWith people continuing to value the concept of sustainable living and embracing a pay-per-use and sharing economy, car ownership continues to fall in cities around the world, despite the worlds urban population growing from 52% in 2010 to 55% today. Adding in time lost
13、 in seemingly endless traffic jams, ever-increasing parking costs, and the availability of various alternative modes of transport, including bikes, scooters and mopeds, its perhaps not surprisingto see only 36% of Parisian households owning a car in 2015, compared to 80% across France as a whole.Pro
14、portion of age groups owning a drivers license (USA)-19%100%50%0%16 17 18 19 20-24198325-29 30-34Age201440-44 45-49 50-54Millennials vs parents55-59 60-64 65-69 70PoliticalIncreasingly concerned with the wellbeing and protection of vehicle occupants and vulnerable road users, and equally applying to
15、 new standards in vehicle safety equipment as well as the operation of new mobility services, central and local authorities are calling for more stringent regulation to increase road safety. At the same time, pressure to limit the environmental impact of road transport is mounting, as illustrated by
16、 the introduction of emission targets, ICE bans, and subsidies for electrified vehicles. As vehicles progressively turn into data centres on wheels, more rigid rules are being called for around privacy data protection.Sources: GP Bullhound analysis, BCG analysis, 1. Insee, 2015TechnologicalOver the
17、past few years, weve experienced tremendous progress in terms of enabling technologies, providing a foundation for the advent of connected, autonomous, shared, and electric driving platforms. These technologies include advances in artificial intelligence, computer vision, and sheer computational pow
18、er, as well as connectivity (bandwidth is set to increase hugely following the roll-out of 5G), fast evolving energy storage efficiency, and material management (such as 3D printing for instance).LicenseddriversA TIME OFUnprecedented Change6WHAT ARE THE KEYTech DisruptionsDISRUPTION HAS COME LATEBut
19、 Will Have Lasting EffectsHeld back in part by the progress in foundational technologies, and in comparison with eCommerce and digital media, disruption of the automotive industry has taken much longer to arrive. Indeed, recent progress in key enablers, such as artificial intelligence, computer visi
20、on, broadband mobile connectivity and energy management have paved the way for Autotech to really flourish. Smartphone penetration for one, has been instrumental in the widespread adoption of the industrys so called killer app: ride hailing. At the same time, capital investment for Electrification,
21、Autonomy and Shared Mobility start-ups tend to be significant, and required a sufficiently mature venture industry to be able to finance daring bets in these spaces.Launch date of current eCommerce, digital media and Autotech leaders1997Avg. eCommerce1999Avg. digital media2010Avg. AutotechAfter a sl
22、ow start, Electrification, Autonomy, Shared Mobility and Connectivity are set to converge over the next 10-15 years and profoundly change the automotive industry in its wake, effecting lasting changes on product design, supply chain management, manufacturing, distribution, business models, sales and
23、 marketing.The key questions those in the industry will need to answer going forward are: How will value be distributed? Who will own the customer relationship?Sources: GP Bullhound analysis, BCG analysis, http:/www.umich.edu/8ELECTRIFICATION AUTONOMYDespite seeing global sales of new electric vehic
24、les quadruple between 2014 and 2017,the absolute share of plug-ins remains remarkably small. Compelled by increasingly tight emission standards and fear of being left behind, OEMs are nevertheless committing billions towards Electrification. Assuming price parity by 2024,and sufficient investment in
25、 supporting infrastructure, we can see the global electrified car count top 100 million by 2030.With the potential to rid the transportation industry of its single largest cost, while at the same time making transport safer, cheaper, and more enjoyable, the stakes are monumental.With well over 50 co
26、mpanies investing heavily in driverless R component suppliers)OEMs END CUSTOMERSTIER 2 wewill always be conservative in our approach to ensure we align with regulation. We will do what is allowed and we will test at development stage what is possible. But to get approval and implementation in each r
27、egion we operate in, we will have to diligently monitor regulation developments to establish when it is realistic to deliver commercial, self-driving cars.For manufacturers, the rise of car-sharing and on-demand mobility leads to questions around how to respond to driver trends that will result in c
28、ars spending less time on driveways, and more frequently taking short trips rather than cross-country journeys. It surely looks to be a good thing for manufacturers, who will need to supply the car- sharing companies with their vehicles.Electrification is of course one of the more immediate changes
29、facing the automotive industry. The CAS of CASE are all being worked towards and constantly improved, but the E is something every car manufacturer will need to make their dominant output.As someone who works with tech companies and start-ups, Im aware of what new competitors are capable of doing an
30、d we are teaming up where it makes sense for both sides.We see this time and again at our corporate accelerator, Startup Autobahn we pitch it as the Spirit of Silicon Valley in the hub of mobility engineering. It is an innovation platform that unites young global tech companies with the best German
31、engineers. To retain our position as industry leaders, we need to keep innovating, investing and acquiring, but we dont say maybe this is an area we should make investments, and this other area is only for acquisitions, it is decided on a case-by-case basis.For the major players in the automotive in
32、dustry today to be here tomorrow, they will need to find new ways to connect users to their ever-more efficient cars; protecting drivers, passengers and the environment along the way.Deceember 2018Notes: Transactions from 2015 to 2018, (1) Through ARM Holdings OEMs Car parts manufacturers16EV: 2005A
33、V: 2015EV: 2010AV: 2015EV: 2002AV: n.aEV: 2006AV: 2009EV: 2002AV: 2015EV: 2001AV: 2014EV: 2008AV: 2014EV: 2001AV: 2015EV: 2004AV: 2015EV: 2007AV: 2013EV: 2003AV: 2015EV: 2007AV: 2010EV: 2001AV: 2013EV: 2006AV: 2016Start date of communication StrategyFocus on individual premium mobility of the future
34、, merging intelligent design, electric drive train, Autonomy and digital connectivity. Aiming for 25 electrified models in 2025 and level 5 autonomous capability by 2021Transforming itself from an automaker into a provider of mobility services. Aiming for at least 10 fully electric cars by 2022 and
35、level 4/5 Autonomy in robo-taxi in 2019To become a world-leading provider of sustainable mobility. Looking to spend 44bn on electric and Autonomy by 2023, bringing 30 new electric vehicles to market by 2025 and level 4/5 Autonomy in robo-taxis under Moia banner by 2021Making peoples lives better thr
36、ough greater mobility, more connectivity, less congestion and reduced emissions. Aiming to launch 40 new electrified vehicles by 2022 and level 5 Autonomy in ride-sharing by 2021Working towards a future of zero crashes, zero emissionsand zero congestion. Planning for 20 electrical vehicles by 2023 a
37、nd commercialising cruise at scale in 2019To become a major player in new mobility solutions. Targeting annual sales of 1 million electrified Nissan and Infinity vehicles, 20 models in 20 markets with autonomous driving technology, all by 2022To be a provider of mobility solutions to enhance custome
38、rs freedom of movement on a day-to-day basis and around the world. Offering electric or hybrid version on its entire new line-up by 2019 and level 4/5 Autonomy starting in 2020To become a major player in new mobility solutions. Targeting EV leadership with 8 battery electric vehicles and 12 electrif
39、iedmodels, a push on connectivity and the launch of 15 models with autonomous drive capability, all by 2022Transform from a car-making company into a mobility company. Aiming to launch 10 new battery electric vehiclesworldwide by the early 2020s and electric options throughout itsline-up by 2025, wi
40、th L4 Autonomy by 2020 on some carsTo lead future innovations in the industry and invest in new technologies and businesses. Planning to introduce a “large” number of electric vehicles by 2025 and level 4 Autonomy by 2021To be the go-to partner for electrified, automated, and connected mobility. Aim
41、ing to develop a mass-producible AI computer, acting as the brains for driverless carsTo make mobility clean, safe, more intelligent and affordable for all. Focus on AI, employing 700 experts by 2021, and V2X communication to eradicate vehicle accidentsTo usher in the next generation of active safet
42、y, autonomous vehicles, smart cities and connectivity. Ongoing L4 Autonomy pilot with LyftTo craft the core technologies for the future of mobility, primarily focused on Electrification and AutonomyCHAPTER X18M&A AUTOTECHRamping UpThe past few years have seen a steady increase in acquisitions within
43、 the Autotech industry culminating ina huge 166 transactions in 2018, with transactions including DiDi Chuxings acquisition of 99 Taxis and Meituans acquisition of Mobike. As the sector matures, it is attracting more sophisticated buyers major financial services names are injecting significant amoun
44、ts of money into the space. In addition, 2018 saw a significant increasein M&A by other strategics, showcasing the breadth of companies fighting for future market dominance.Number of autotech transactions per buyer group107 11288140166OEMsAutotechOther automotivesTechnologyOther strategicsFinancials
45、Europe in 2018 remained the most active market worldwide in terms of the number of transactions, with 39%of all global transactions. This is in marked contrast to its share of total transactions value, which has declined since 2014, to less than 10% in 2018. This highlights the difficulties for Euro
46、pean Autotech startups to scale, as well as the fact that many European targets are local Shared Mobility players acquired by consolidators (see analysis overleaf).28%Transactions by target region (% of value of transactions)19% 30% 21%Transactions by target region(% of total number of transactions)
47、28% 28% North America66%60%9%31% 12%50%7%72%34%54%32%53%34%44% 48% 39%EuropeAsia & Pacific31%5%59%11% 15% 25% 24%33%2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Sources: CapitalIQ, Mergermarket, Pitchbook, Press, Company information. (1) H2 2018 extrapolated based on proportions in H1/H2 2017 and H1 2018AUTOTECH INVESTMENTSGrowing From Strength To Strength
