1、（一）World economy The jobs crisis 失业危机Its coming, whatever governments do; but they can make it better or worse不论政府如何努力，失业危机已经到来。不过政府可以在这场危机中起到关键作用Illustration by Belle Mellor NOTHING evokes the misery of mass unemployment more than the photographs of the Depression. You can see it in the drawn faces
2、 of the men, in their shabby clothes, in their eyes. Their despair spawned political extremism that left a stain on society; but it also taught subsequent generations that public policy has a vital part in alleviating the suffering of those who cannot get work. Thanks to welfare schemes and unemploy
3、ment benefits, many of which have their origins in those dark days, joblessness no longer plunges people into destitution, at least in the developed world.再没有什么比关于经济大萧条的照片更能让人体会大量失业的痛苦。这种痛苦显见于人们紧绷的面容，褴褛的衣衫，还有他们的眼神。由人们的绝望所引发的政治极端主义给社会留下污点；失业问题也使后人懂得公共政策在减轻失业痛苦方面所起到的重要作用。很多福利计划和失业救济金方案都发轫于那些灰暗的失业时期；受惠
4、于这些计划，至少发达国家的人们不再因为失业而陷入穷困。Not even the gloomiest predict that todays slump will approach the severity of the Depression, which shrank Americas economy by more than a quarter, and put a quarter of the working-age population out of a job. But with the world in its deepest recession since the 1930s an
5、d global trade shrinking at its fastest pace in 80 years, the misery of mass unemployment looms nonetheless, and raises the big question posed in the Depression: what should governments do? 即使是最悲观的预计都不认为眼下的衰退会接近大萧条的程度，后者使美国经济缩水四分之一，四分之一的就业人口失去工作。但随着世界经济出现自 1930 年代以来的最大幅度衰退以及全球贸易 80 年来的最快速萎缩，大规模失业的恶魇
6、再度凸显，并且抛出了和大萧条时期一样的大问题：政府应该做些什么？Join the queue 加入失业队伍In the rich world the job losses are starkest in America, where the recession began. Its flexible labour market has shed 4.4m jobs since the downturn began in December 2007, including more than 600,000 in each of the past three months. The unemplo
7、yment rate jumped to 8.1% in February, the highest in a quarter-century. An American who loses his job today has less of a chance of finding another one than at any time since records began half a century ago. That is especially worrying when the finances of many households have come to depend on tw
8、o full incomes.富裕国家的失业问题在衰退肇始的美国最为显著。自从 07 年 12 月经济陷入低迷以来，美国灵活的劳动力市场已经溢出了 440 万份失业，其中在过去三个月内每月产生了 60 万份。二月的失业率跃升至 8.1%，是 25 年来的最高数字。比起有纪录的半个世纪内的任何时期，眼下失业的美国人更难再找到一份工作。特别是当很多家庭的财政依靠双职工收入的时候，这种情况尤其令人堪忧。But it is already clear that unemployment will strike hard far beyond America and Britain. In Japan
9、output is plunging faster than in other rich economies. Although unemployment is low, rapid job losses among Japans army of temporary workers are exposing the unfairness of a two-tier labour market and straining an egalitarian society. 然而显而易见的是，失业问题的沉重打击远不止于美国和英国。日本的生产量比其他富裕经济体下降得更快。尽管失业率尚低，但临时工当中快速
10、增长的失业大军显示了“双层劳工市场”的不公平性，加剧了一个平等社会中的紧张。In Europe joblessness has grown fastest in places such as Spain and Ireland, where building booms have crashed, but has only begun to edge up elsewhere. The unemployment rates in many European countries are below Americas, but that may be because their more rigi
11、d labour markets adjust more slowly to falling demand. Given how fast European economies are shrinking, nobody doubts that worse lies ahead. By the end of 2010, unemployment in much of the rich world is likely to be above 10%.在欧洲，建筑业热潮遭遇重创的西班牙和爱尔兰等国失业速度增长最快，而在其他地方则初现端倪。很多欧洲国家的失业率都低于美国，但也许这只是因为它们有更加严
12、格的劳工市场，从而对下降的市场需求适应更慢。面对着快速萎缩的欧洲经济，没有人会怀疑更糟糕的就业局面就在眼前。到 2010 年底，多数富裕国家的失业率可能会超过 10%。In the emerging world the pattern will be different, but the outcome more painful. As trade shrinks, millions of workers are losing their foothold on the bottom rungs of the global supply chain. Poverty will rise as
13、they sink into informal work or move back to the land. The World Bank expects some 53m people to fall below the level of extreme poverty this year.发展中国家的情况就不一样了，只不过结果会更人头疼。随着贸易萎缩，数以百万计的工人正失去他们在全球供应链条底端的立锥之地。他们转向非正式工作或者回到农村，伴随而来的是贫困问题的抬头。世界银行预计，今年将有约5300 万人降到极端贫困线以下。 Politics dictates that government
14、s must intervene energetically to help. Thats partly because capital has taken such a large share of profits for so many years that the pendulum is bound to swing back and partly because, having just given trillions of dollars to the banks, politicians will be under pressure to put vast amounts of m
15、oney into saving jobs. But help cannot be measured in dollars alone. Badly designed policies can be self-defeating. After the recessions of the 1970s and early 1980s, Europes rigid labour-markets kept unemployment high for decades.政治上，政府必须全力介入进行援助。这一方面是因为多年以来资本在利润中占去了很大份额，重心注定要返回；另一方面是因为给了银行万亿计美元的当政
16、者们承担着巨大的压力，需要大量注资来挽救就业岗位。然而挽救不能仅以美元来衡量。错误的决策反倒会弄巧成拙。自 1970 年代和 1980 年代初期的经济衰退以来，欧洲缺乏灵活度的劳动力市场就使失业率几十年来居高不下。Governments are piling in with short-term help for workers. In America, which has one of the lowest social safety nets in the rich world, extending unemployment benefits was, rightly, part of t
17、he recent stimulus package. Japan is giving social assistance to “non regular” workers, a group that has long been ignored. In general, however, it makes more sense to pay companies to keep people in work than to subsidise unemployment. Many countries are topping up the earnings of workers on shorte
18、ned weeks or forced leave. 各国政府正为劳动者提供大量的短期援助。美国的社会保障体系在富裕国家中处于最低，而最近出台的经济刺激计划中，扩大失业救济金惠及面恰恰是计划中的一部分。日本为长期以来受忽视的“非固定”劳动者群体提供社会援助。不过总的来说，比起失业补助，资助企业以留住员工才是明智之举。很多国家通过缩短每周工作日或强制休假来满足劳工薪资。These are sensible measures, so long as they are time-limited; for, in the short term, governments need to do all t
19、hey can to sustain demand. But the jobs crisis, alas, is unlikely to be short-lived. Even if the recession ends soon (and there is little sign of that happening), the asset bust and the excessive borrowing that led to it are likely to overshadow the world economy for many years to come. Moreover, ma
20、ny of yesterdays jobs, from Spanish bricklayer to Wall Street trader, are not coming back. People will have to shift out of old occupations and into new ones.这些措施在一定时限内是合理的：因为在短期内，政府需要尽全力维持需求。只是哎呀，就业危机不大可能只在短期内存在。即便经济衰退很快结束（而且几乎不可能发生） ，引起这场危机的阴云资金短缺和过度借贷将在接下来继续笼罩世界经济长达数年。更有甚者，不论是西班牙的砌砖匠还是华尔街的交易员，很多昔
21、日的就业岗位会一去不复返。人们将被迫告别现有职位，转行进入新岗位。A difficult dance 艰难的舞步Over the next couple of years, politicians will have to perform a difficult policy U-turn; for, in the long term, they need flexible labour markets. That will mean abolishing job-subsidy programmes, taking away protected workers privileges and
22、making it easier for businesses to restructure by laying people off. Countries such as Japan, with two-tier workforces in which an army of temporary workers with few protections toil alongside mollycoddled folk with many, will need to narrow that disparity by making the latter easier to fire. 在接下来的几
23、年中，政治家们不得不做出一个 180 度的艰难政策转变：因为从长远来看，他们需要一个灵活的劳动力市场。这意味着废除工作补贴计划，去除受保护劳工的特权，以及帮助企业更方便地裁员从而进行重组。像日本这样具有双层劳动力结构的国家，大量埋头苦干的临时劳工缺乏就业保障，而被娇生惯养的上层员工却能享受到多重保护。这种差别需要通过严格上层员工的裁汰制度加以消除。The euphemism for that is “flexibility”. The bare truth is that the more easily jobs can be destroyed, the more easily new on
24、es can be created. The programmes that help today, by keeping people in existing jobs, will tomorrow become a drag on the great adjustment that lies ahead. As time goes by, spending on keeping people in old jobs will need to be cut, and replaced with spending on training them for new ones. Governmen
25、ts will have to switch from policies to support demand to policies to make their labour markets more flexible. That is going to require fancy political footwork; but politicians will have to perform those steps, because if they fail to, they will stifle growth.这些措施可以委婉地概括为“灵活性”措施。更直白的事实是，现有工作越容易被废弃，
26、新工作就越容易被创造。眼下这些保住人们饭碗的援助计划会在今后成为调整适应今后形势的拖累。随着时间推移，用在保留人员旧岗位的指出需要削减，取而代之的是为新岗位培养劳动者的开支。各国政府需要从支持需求的政策转变为建设一个更灵活的劳动力市场。这种转变需要富有想象力的政治谋划，但确实当政者们必须完成的步骤：因为如果他们不这样做，增长将被遏制。However well governments design their policies, unemployment is going to rise sharply, for some time. At best it will blight million
27、s of lives for years. The politicians task is to make sure the misery is not measured in decades. 然而，不论政府政策制定的多么完美，失业率在一段时间内仍将陡增。不过充其量它会在几年内让数百万人的生计陷于困境。当政者的任务是不要让这场不幸延续数十年。（二）Chinas trade Surplus to requirements 顺差的需要Why is Chinas trade surplus growing when its exports have collapsed?为什么中国的出口大幅下降时，
28、贸易顺差却在增长？THIS week revised figures revealed that China overtook Germany in 2007 to become the worlds third-biggest economy. At the start of last year China also looked set to become the worlds biggest exporter, but a slump in exports in the final months of the year meant they remained smaller than G
29、ermanys. Chinas exports tumbled by 13% (in dollar terms) in the fourth quarter, leaving them 3% lower in December than a year earlier. Despite this, Chinas trade surplus rose to a record $457 billion at an annual rate in the fourth quarter50% bigger than in the same period of 2007. What is going on?
30、 本周，修正后的数字显示中国在 2007 年已经超越德国成为世界第三大经济体。在去年初，中国也目标成为世界上最大的出口国，但是年末数月出口的大幅下落意味着他们仍然排在德国之后。按照美元来计算，中国的出口额在第四季度下降了 13%，比一年前同期少了 3%。尽管如此，中国的贸易顺差在第四季度却以全年增速上升到创纪录的 4570 亿美元，比 2007 年同期增长了 50%。这其中到底有何玄机？In the first half of 2008 Chinas trade surplus did indeed shrink (see chart). But since then, although ex
31、ports slumped, imports fell by much moredown by 21% in the 12 months to December. The slide in both exports and imports was exacerbated by the global credit freeze, which has made it harder for companies around the world to get letters of credit to guarantee payment. Imports were also dragged down b
32、y cheaper oil and commodity prices, and by weaker imports of materials and components used to make exports (over 50% of total imports). 2008 年上半年，中国的贸易顺差确实出现了缩水（见表） 。但是自那以后，尽管出口大跌，但是进口跌的更惨到12 月时，12 个月内下跌了 21%。进出口双双下滑由于受到全球信贷停滞影响而加剧。这是因为信用冻结导致全世界的公司更加难以获得信用证从而保证支付。出口同样也受到拖累，其下跌主要是由于更廉价的原油和商品价格，以及原材料和
33、用于出口产品的部件进口（占到进口总量的 50%以上）表现疲软。But a more worrying reason why China bought less from the rest of the world is that its domestic demand has weakened. Consumer spending and manufacturing investment have so far held up reasonably well, but constructiona big user of imported raw materialshas collapsed.
34、但是关于中国进口下降的一个更令人忧虑的原因是：中国的国内需求减小。消费支出和生产投资目前的收缩尚且适当，但是建筑业作为进口原材料的使用大户也出现了急剧下滑。With most of the world in recession, Chinas exports will continue to slide this year. Nomura forecasts a drop of 6%the first annual decline for more than 25 years. Imports, on the other hand, are expected to increase. By m
35、id-year, the governments planned massive increase in infrastructure spending will boost imports of raw materials and machinery. If so, Chinas trade surplus will shrink in 2009.随着全球大部分地区陷入衰退，中国的出口今年将继续下滑。野村证券预测的下滑是 6%，为 25 年来的首次下滑。另一方面，进口预计将增长。到年中时，政府计划的基础设施投入大幅增长将会推动原材料和机械进口。这样的话，中国 2009 年的贸易顺差将会缩水。
36、The collapse in exports and the consequent job losses in southern China have triggered speculation that the government might try to push down the value of the yuan. But not only would this provoke a protectionist backlash from Americas new government, it would also do little to help producers. China
37、s problem is weak foreign demand, not competitiveness. The best way for China to support its economyand to help unwind global trade imbalancesis to bolster domestic demand. 出口剧减加上随之而来的中国南方的失业会导致政府考虑人民币贬值。但这将不仅激起美国新政府的保护主义反弹，对生产者也帮助甚小。中国的问题是在于疲软的国外需求，而不是竞争力。支持中国经济乃至帮助全球贸易摆脱不平衡的方法，是加强内需。One piece of g
38、ood news this week is that, following interest-rate cuts and the governments scrapping of credit restrictions, total bank loans jumped by 19% in the 12 months to December, up from growth of 14% last summer. China is perhaps the only big economy where credit growth has heated up in recent months. If
39、that is sustained, it could help to boost domestic spending. 本周的一个好消息是：随着减息和政府去除信贷限制，银行信贷总额到 12 月的 12 个月中从去年夏天的 14%猛增19%。中国也许是最近几个月内世界大经济体中唯一出现信贷增长加速的地方。如果增速持续，它将促进内需支出。China certainly cannot rely on exports any more. Becoming the worlds biggest exporter will be of little comfort if global trade is
40、spiralling downwards. 中国决不能再依赖出口。如果全球贸易持续下降，成为世界最大的出口国亦将无益。（三）Chinas stimulus Got a light? 经济复苏已被点燃？Chinas big fiscal package may be starting to work中国庞大的财政措施可能已经起效“ONLY when all contribute their firewood can they build up a strong fire,” says a Chinese proverb. With the world economy in its worst c
41、risis in 70 years, every country needs to do its bit to rekindle global demand. The American government, which plans to run a budget deficit of 12% of GDP this year, has called on its Group of 20 partners to do more. Is China one of the misers? Its budget, published last week, showed that it plans t
42、o run a deficit of only 3% of GDP. Was the 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) infrastructure package unveiled last November, worth 14% of GDP, a sham?中国有句民谚：“众人拾柴火焰高。 ”随着世界经济陷入 70 年以来的最大危机，要重燃全球需求之火，各国都责无旁贷。美国政府计划今年运行占国内生产总值 12%的财政赤字，并号召二十国集团的伙伴们作出更多行动。中国是其中的吝啬鬼吗？它在上周公布的预算显示，中国计划运行的财政赤字只占 GDP 的 3%。难道去年十
43、一月公布的 4 亿元用于基础设施建设的措施相当于 GDP 的 14%仅仅是在忽悠？Beijings stimulus is smaller than the number announced last year, but it is still the biggest in the world. The fact that America is set to run a budget deficit four times the size of Chinas as a share of GDP does not mean its demand stimulus is bigger; Ameri
44、ca started this year with a much bigger deficit. Americas deficit will increase by more than Chinas this year, largely because it is suffering a deeper recession which will depress tax revenue. The correct measure of a fiscal stimulus is the change in the budget deficit adjusted for the impact of th
45、e economic cycle. 北京的刺激计划小于去年公布的数字，但这依然是世界范围内最大的经济刺激方案。尽管美国运行的财政赤字是中国的四倍，但这并不意味着它的需求性刺激计划就更大。美国从今年开始就保持了巨大的财政赤字，并且年内赤字增长将高于中国。这主要是因为美国遭受的经济衰退极大地减少了税收。财政刺激方案的正确措施应该是调整财政赤字以适应经济圈的冲击。In China, however, even this would understate the true stimulus, because some public-infrastructure investment will be d
46、one by state-owned firms or local governments and financed by banks. Tao Wang of UBS estimates that new infrastructure investment, tax cuts, consumer subsidies and increased spending on health care will amount to a stimulus by the central government of about 3% of GDP in 2009. Adding in bank-finance
47、d infrastructure spending might lift the total to 4% of GDP. 然而在中国，经济赤字掩盖了真实的刺激方案，因为一些公共基础设施投资是由银行提供资金、国有公司或地方政府实施的。瑞银的陶旺（音）预计，新的基础设施建设、减税、消费补贴以及医疗方面的投资增长将构成总额占到GDP3%的 09 年中央政府刺激方案。如果加上由银行提供资金支持的基建支出，整个刺激方案将占到 GDP 的 4%。Chinese investment in railways, roads and power grids is already booming. In the
48、first two months of this year, total fixed investment was 30% higher in real terms than a year earlier, and investment in railways tripled. China has been much criticised for focusing its stimulus on investment, rather than consumption, but in China in the short term this is the quickest way to boos
49、t domestic demand.中国在铁路、公路和电网方面的投资已经大规模展开。今年头两个月内，固定投资总额较去年同期增长 30%，铁路投资增长了 3 倍。很多批评认为，中国的刺激方案集中于投资而不是消费，但就短期来看，在中国这是提高国内需求最立竿见影的方式。What about the other tool for boosting domestic spending, namely monetary policy? Since the start of last year, China has cut its interest rates by only half as much as Americas Federal Reserve has. New figures showing that consumer prices fell by 1.6% in the year to February have brought the first whiff of deflation, suggesting that China has not done enough to boost demand. But this is not true deflation, where fa
