1、教師：許晃雄、周佳上課時間：星期一，10：20-12：10教室：A104 先修課：氣候學（或大氣動力與天氣學）課程介紹：本課程介紹季節變化/亞洲季風、異常氣候 現象、聖嬰現象與氣候變遷，訓練學生診 斷分析氣候變異的能力評分方式：課堂口頭報告（30）、書面報告（40） 與課堂討論參與程度（30）,氣候診斷分析,09/13: 課程介紹、熟悉線上氣候分析與資料網站（如， Climate Diagnostics Center，Climate Prediction Center）、 繪圖軟體介紹、學生分組 (許晃雄、周佳)09/20: 季節變化與亞洲季風分析（周佳）09/27: 季節變化與亞洲季風分析（
2、學生）10/04: 季節變化與亞洲季風分析（學生）10/11: 季節變化與亞洲季風分析（學生）10/18: 異常氣候個案分析（許晃雄）10/25: 異常氣候個案分析（學生）11/01: 異常氣候個案分析（學生）11/08: 異常氣候個案分析（學生）,11/15: 校慶停課11/22: 聖嬰現象對天氣與氣候的影響（周佳）11/29: 聖嬰現象對天氣與氣候的影響（學生）12/06: 聖嬰現象對天氣與氣候的影響（學生）12/13: 聖嬰現象對天氣與氣候的影響（學生）12/20: 氣候變遷分析（許晃雄）12/27: 氣候變遷分析（學生）01/03: 氣候變遷分析（學生）01/10: 氣候變遷分析（學生
3、） （註：視實際狀況調整上課時間）,Speaking of climatology in 1978 in an address reported in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (10, 1171-1174), Professor Kenneth Hare said, you hardly heard the word professionally in the 1940s. It was a laymans word. Climatologists were the halt and the lamein the
4、British service you actually had to be medically disabled in order to get into the climatological division It was clearly not the age of climate. Now it is. Its the respectable thing to do This is obviously the decade in which climate is coming its own.,氣候系統中大氣圈、水圈、冰雪圈、岩石圈及生物圈等各成份間的交互作用，以及若干影響氣候變化的外
5、在因子(National Academy of Sciences, 1975),診斷分析過程： 描述現象 確認特徵 討論相關的大氣環流（多重尺度）、 海洋（海溫、洋流等）與 地表（地溫、冰雪、土壤、植被等） 現象間的關係 確認問題 探討可能的機制 已知現象、既有理論、數值模擬、 提出看法,Tropical Circulation (Trade Wind) Mapdrawn by Halley（1686）,7,Ferrel, 1856,Thomson, 1857,Hadley, 1735,Dove, 1837,Ferrel, 1859,Maury, 1855,Lorenz, 1967: The
6、nature and theory of the general circulation of the atmosphere. P.59-78,Noted unsteadywind direction bt.SW and NEeddy!,2-cell circulationto accommodate westerly in midlatitude,noted existence of eddy,no concept of eddy,Land surface observation,Ship observation,1875,1875,1975,1975,10,CurrentMeteorolo
7、gicalObservation,11,12,13,觀測資料（空間與時間不均勻、不同步、性質不同）,天氣預報模式同化系統,模式分析資料（同步、空間與時間均勻）,天氣預報,問題： 觀測方法與儀器、觀測的空間分佈、模式與同化方法 不斷演進、 產生不連續性 誤判為氣候變化（變遷） 明顯例子：1970年代衛星開始被大量應用 解決方法： Reanalysis: Shukla and Bengtsen 1980年代提出 用同一個模式與同化系統，使用所有資料，重作逐日 天氣預報，產生一組新的長期資料 National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 1
8、947-present: NCEP Reanalysis I, II, CFS Reanalysis European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) 1958-2002 ERA40, ERA Interim (1989- ) NASA/GSFC, JMA (JRA25) ,其他資料：以衛星資料為主 海溫 輻射與雲 （ERBE、ISCCP、CERES、） 降水 （GPCP、TRMM、CMAP、) 懸浮微粒 （MODIS） 冰雪 植被 ,Nature of Climate Data - Global Long time serie
9、s (modern and paleo) Multi-disciplinary: Atmosphere-Hydrosphere-Lithosphere- Cryosphere- Biosphere Observation and SimulationTremendous amount of data Data amount increases astronomically (giga - tera - peta bytes),17,Available Online Map Rooms and Data Library:NOAA/ Earth System Research Laboratory
10、 (ESRL)/Physical Sciences Division - Interactive Plotting and Analysis PagesLong-term climatologyPast and near-real time climate condition Basic statistical analysis tool NOAA/National Center for Environmental Prediction/Climate Prediction Center http:/www.cpc.noaa.gov/ Global Data Display System: h
11、ttp:/www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/wesley/,18,http:/cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/cfsr/,International Research Institute for Climate and Society http:/portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.ptData Library http:/iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/index.html Map rooms http:/iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/index.html,TAO Project
12、Office of Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory http:/www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/ Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array Data (since 1984),National Climatic Data Center http:/www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html (mostly free of charge)NASA: 12 Distributed Active Archive Centers for NASA satellite and field measur
13、ement programs http:/nasadaacs.eos.nasa.gov/about.html Data are free of charge for download and air shipment.,20,British Atmospheric Data Center (BADC)http:/badc.nerc.ac.uk/home/index.html European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts http:/www.ecmwf.int/ Map roomsData for research and educatio
14、n purposes are provided at handling cost. (not cheap!)Some datasets (from research programs) are free of charge. Most widely used data: ECMWF re-analysis (ERA40, 1957/9-2002/8) on coarser spatial resolution (2.5 by 2.5 degree) http:/data-portal.ecmwf.int/data/d/era40_daily/ ,Interim (1989- ), YOTC (
15、2008/5-2010/4),21,大氣研究資料庫 http:/dbar.as.ntu.edu.tw/ 氣象局資料NCEP reanalysisERA40 ReanalysisOLROcean data詢問氣候動力實驗室,Climate Projection DataIPCC climate simulation and projection data: WCRP CMIP3 Multi-Model Dataset Archive available at PCMDI (Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI
16、)/the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) http:/www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/about_ipcc.php Time series of 3-D daily (or higher temporal resolution) are difficult to get.Many different kinds of simulationTremendous data amountftp download take times Simulation data from Individual centersNation
17、al Center for Atmospehric ResearchHadley Center (or BADC)GFDL/NOAA (Princeton University).,23,Other Slides,百葉箱,圖2-3左圖為無線電探空儀及氣球，右圖表示利用方向角及高度位置追蹤氣球的位置。,16.519.5km(5000060000 feet),MIST (400g),Driftsonde Flight Train,Parachute,Radar Reflector,Aircraft Transponder/Strobe Light,Driftsonde Gondola (21kg)
18、,Temperature Sensors,CNES 12 meter Super Pressure Balloon (13kg Helium),Pressure- TemperatureSensors & Gas Relief valve,CNES Payload,Total payload weight 42 kg, 15 meters,15 meters,氣象飛機,細節http:/raf.atd.ucar.edu/Aircraft/electra.html,Dropsonde,The Global Ocean Observing System,Data Buoy Cooperation Panel,The Drifting Buoy network has achieved its initial target,Improving, sustaining and maintaining remains a challenge, 1250 Drifters,drifter,衛星的軌道,衛星通過位置,同步衛星軌道涵蓋範圍,http:/earthobservatory.nasa.gov/MissionControl/#,TRMM (ppt),QuikSCAT (Sea wind),EOS-Terra,Landsat-7,吳奇樺,吳奇樺,
