1、 翻译评论 QQ 群：54592418牛斯狗评论 系列双语读物Another new world order另一个世界新秩序The planet has been completely reshaped in the first decade of the 21st century, and Canada mustnt squander its opportunity to reposition在21世纪头10年，地球已被完全改造，加拿大不能浪费重新定位的机会。As the ballad goes, “the times, they are a-changin,” and so too is
2、the context that shapes our national interests and our global relationships. In just 20 years we have gone from a bipolar world of two military, if not economic, superpowers, to a single-polar world of an economic, political and military hyper-power to todays multipolar world with competing centres
3、of economic and political power, and evolving military balances. It has also been an intellectual roller-coaster ride from Francis Fukuyamas The End of History in the mid-1990s to Fareed Zakarias The Post-American World a short decade later.歌曲有云， “时代变革在今朝， ” 我们的国家利益和全球关系也在发生翻译评论 QQ 群：54592418牛斯狗评论 系
4、列双语读物着巨变。短短20年间，地球从两个军事（而不是经济）超级大国主宰的两极世界，发展到经济、政治和军事超级霸权的单级世界，又迈入目前的经济和政治力量中心相互竞争、实现军事平衡的多级世界。也从20世纪90年代弗朗西斯福山历史的终结中的智力过山车，进化到十年后里德扎卡里亚所说的后美国世界。 Clearly, the first decade of the new millennium will cast a long shadow over the 21st century. It was a decade marked by jarring and unsettling events: Y2
5、K; terrorist attacks; Enron and a host of other corporate debacles; horrific natural disasters showcased by the digital information age; the invasion of Iraq and the absence of weapons of mass destruction; the dot-com bust; and the global financial crisis. Cumulatively, these events have sapped publ
6、ic trust in leadership. Overwhelmingly, they have changed the publics expectations for their governments. Paradoxically, they have created gaping fissures in the body politic about how best to meet these changed public expectations.显然，新千年的头10年将在21世纪投下长长的阴影。其间充满着不和谐和令人不安的事件：千年虫、恐怖袭击、安然和大批公司倒地、数字化信息时代
7、展示的可怕自然灾害、入侵伊拉克却未找到大规模杀伤性武器、互联网泡沫破灭，以及全球金融危机。种种事件累加，削弱了公众对领导力的信任。这些事件不可抗拒地改变了公众对政府的期望。矛盾的是，国民也因此对政府如何能更好地满足变化了的公众期望产生了意见分歧。And while these very public events naturally captured the headlines, they represent only the tip of the proverbial iceberg of the “global drivers of change” that are now reshapi
8、ng economies, societies and politics. There are four core structural trends driving this change: globalization, demographics, the information revolution and climate change. These, together with the events of the past decade, are inexorably changing the world order.翻译评论 QQ 群：54592418牛斯狗评论 系列双语读物虽然这些公
9、众事件自然而然地成为新闻头条，但是，相对于重塑经济、社会和政治的”全球变化发动机“来说，它们只是冰山的一角。变革有四大结构驱动力：全球化、人口、信息革命和气候变化。这些连同过去10年所发生的事件，无情地改变了世界秩序。So, what shape will this new world order take? Lets start with globalization. Todays pervasive globalization has been made possible by the information revolution. It is bound together through
10、 global supply chains, global capital markets, the global Internet and unprecedented movements of people. We now inhabit a flatter, more interconnected, more wired and more competitive world than was imaginable just a decade ago.那么，新的世界秩序将会怎样？我们先从全球化说起。今天，信息革命已使普遍全球化成为可能，通过全球供应链、全球资本市场、全球互联网和前所未有的人们
11、迁移，世界被紧紧连在一起。与10年前相比，我们现在生活在联系更紧密、在线化程度更高、更具竞争力的扁平世界，远远超乎想象。Without this pervasive globalization, the global financial crisis would have been an American banking crisis. Without this pervasive globalization, the United States would not have been able to live beyond its means at no apparent cost for
12、the past decade, nor would China have been able to export its way to two decades of double-digit growth. Without this globalization, supply chains would still be national rather than worldwide, and costs would be higher.如果没有这种普遍的全球化，全球金融危机将只是美国银行业危机。如果没有这种普遍的全球化，在过去10年，美国就不会几乎毫无成本地入不敷出，中国的出口也不能在20年间
13、保持两位数的增长。如果没有全球化，供应链仍然会是全国性的，而不是全球性的，成本将更高。The global restructuring that globalization has facilitated will see Asia account for 50 per cent of world GDP by the end of this decade, an economic prominence last seen three centuries ago. Indicative of the pace of change is that China 翻译评论 QQ 群：54592418
14、牛斯狗评论 系列双语读物became the second-largest economy in the world in 2010, moving another Asian economy, Japan, into third place.全球化促进了全球重组，在这10年末期，亚洲的 GDP 将占到全球的50%，这种经济实力只在300年前出现过。这一变化的指标是中国在2010年成为全球第二大经济体，将亚洲另一大经济体日本推到第三的位置。At the same time, the information revolution is reshaping how we work, how we
15、communicate, and how we interact. We are creating a 24/7 global digital universe that is changing our concepts of markets, the value of information, our systems of social networking, political dynamics.与此同时，信息革命正在改变我们工作、沟通和互动的方式。我们创造出全天候的全球数字宇宙，改变了我们的市场观念、信息价值、社交系统、政治格局。And the revolution is far fro
16、m having run its course. Twitter will be obsolete before I ever get around to using it. The Internet and blogs are changing political campaigns. Blogs are beginning to lead not follow traditional news media. The growth of data on the World Wide Web is an unimaginable order of magnitude greater than
17、trade and investment.而且革命远未结束。 在我还没有学会如何使用推特时，它已经将被淘汰。互联网和博客正在改变政治运动。博客开始率领、而不是跟随传统新闻媒体。万维网上数据的增长量无法想象，远远大于贸易和投资的规模。Overlay on this the demographics of aging. While aging has always been a personal reality, it had never been a problem for whole societies. Today, things are different. All industrial
18、countries are aging, with impending declines in the working-age population. The impacts will be profound, affecting not only pensions systems and health care but also education, housing, immigration and economic growth. Aging will put an incredible premium on skilled workers, and will 翻译评论 QQ 群：5459
19、2418牛斯狗评论 系列双语读物shift the “wealth of nations” to countries with younger, educated populations. The hunt for talent will become more global and more of a preoccupation of companies and countries.此外是人口老龄化。虽然老龄化一直是个人要面临的现实，但它从来没有发展成为整个社会的问题。如今，情况不同了。所有工业国家都在老龄化，工龄人口即将下降。其影响将是深远的，不仅会影响养老金制度和卫生保健，也将影响到教育
20、、住房、移民和经济增长。老龄化将给技术工人带来难以置信的好处， “国家财富”将流向更年轻、受过更好教育的人群。对人才的掠夺将更为全球化，受到公司和国家的更高关注。If the impacts of aging are profound, the potential consequences of climate change are uncertain and unsettling. While the answer is obvious that is, to change behaviour you have to change the price of that behaviour in
21、 a market-based system the way forward is not. Copenhagen didnt inspire confidence that the multilateral system can manage climate change. And the responses of the major emitters dont inspire confidence that they are willing and able to tackle climate change domestically, let alone collectively. Cli
22、mate change may become the litmus test of whether the G20 is effective and durable.如果老龄化的影响是深刻的，那么，气候变化的潜在后果则是不确定和令人不安的。在以市场为基础的系统中，改变自身行为就要付出代价，尽管这个答案是显而易见的，但前进的方式却并非如此。哥本哈根大会没有让人们对多边国家应对气候变化产生信心。主要碳排放国的反应，无法让人们相信他们愿意在国内应对气候变化问题，更遑论集体应对。气候变化可能将成为20国集团高效性和持久性的试金石。The world economy is now in recovery
23、 after the great recession. But just as this was not a typical recession, nor will it be a standard recovery. This global recovery will be remembered for its uncertainty, volatility and overhanging imbalances.翻译评论 QQ 群：54592418牛斯狗评论 系列双语读物世界经济正从大衰退中复苏。但是，正如这不是一场典型的经济衰退，复苏也将是非标准性的。这次全球经济复苏将因其不确定性，波动性
24、和突出的不平衡性使人无法忘记。The U.S. recovery will be tepid by comparison with previous cyclical rebounds, constrained by lingering unemployment, too much debt, too little savings and too large government deficits. Canada should outperform the U.S., supported by strong commodity prices and healthy balance sheets
25、, but there are limits to our potential to decouple from U.S. performance. Asia will be a much faster-growing region, buoyed by demographics and low-cost production, but hampered by too much savings, too little consumption and too much reliance on trade-led growth. Europe will be a slow-growth area,
26、 weighed down by demographics, unaffordable entitlement programs, and large deficits and debt. Financial markets seem predisposed to react vigorously to each unexpected economic tea leaf, reinforcing the volatility of the recovery.受挥之不去的失业率、太多的债务、太少的储蓄，以及过于庞大的政府赤字所累，与以往的周期性反弹相比，美国的经济复苏将是温和的，受到强劲的商品价
27、格和健康的资产负债表支持，加拿大好于美国，但美国的经济表现使我们的发展潜力受到制约。由于人口和低生产成本的推动，亚洲将是快速增长的地区，但人们的储蓄过多、消费太少、过于倚重贸易对经济增长的带动作用，将阻碍亚洲的发展。人口、无力承担的权利法案，以及沉重的赤字和债务负担，使欧洲成为增长缓慢的地区。金融市场对每一个意外的经济波动都反应强烈，加剧了复苏的不稳定性。Fiscal-policy exit strategies are equally challenging. Deficits are high and structural in a number of G7 countries, and
28、higher still in a number of smaller industrial countries. Estimates suggest a doubling of U.S. debt levels over the next five years, with similar projections for Japan and the euro zone. With pervasive globalization, unsustainable fiscal 翻译评论 QQ 群：54592418牛斯狗评论 系列双语读物situations in small countries su
29、ch as Greece can threaten systematic stability, and growing debt burdens even in reserve currencies can unsettle markets if there is no clear light at the end of the fiscal tunnel.财政政策的退出战略同样具有挑战性。7国集团的一些国家面临高额的结构性赤字，在比较小的工业国家，赤字甚至更高。预计在未来5年内，美国的债务水平将提高一倍，日本和欧元区也有用同样问题。随着全球化的普及，希腊等小国不可持续的财政状况，将威胁到系统
30、的稳定，甚至将危及储蓄货币，如果在财政隧道尽头看不到希望，将造成市场的恐慌。With political gridlock in the U.S. and elsewhere, combined with renewed worries about the strength of the recovery, the risk is that deficits will remain large for longer periods. The ensuing debt imbalances will only reinforce the shifting economic centre of g
31、ravity away from low-saving, heavily indebted, industrial countries.伴随美国与其他国家陷入政治僵局，人们对复苏的力量再度表示担忧，在未来很长时期，经济将面临赤字高居不下的风险。随后的债务不平衡只会加剧经济重心向低储蓄、负债累累的工业国家转移。To an extent that we had not seen in the postwar period, the Canadian economy outperformed the U.S. in the recession and is continuing to do so i
32、n the recovery. Canadas strengths are impressive and extend well beyond our strong fiscal situation, stable financial sector, bountiful resources, agriculture capacity and proximity to the richest market in the world.在一定程度上出现了战后我们没有见过的情景，加拿大经济表现优于陷入衰退的美国，并将在复苏过程中保持同样的势头。在加拿大强大的财政状况、稳定的金融业、丰富的资源、强劲的农
33、业发展，以及靠近世界上最富有的市场之外，其经济实力令人印象深刻。They include our “public infrastructure” of resilient institutions of government and governance: Canadas 翻译评论 QQ 群：54592418牛斯狗评论 系列双语读物professional and non-partisan public services; our social safety nets that reassure in times of turbulence; our values, rule of law a
34、nd respect for diversity; our largely non-ideological approach to public policy; and our civility and openness in political discourse. Yet some of these strengths of our Westminster model of governance are beginning to fray, and this should be cause for public concern.其中包括“公共基础设施”中富有弹性的政府和治理机构：加拿大的专
35、业和非党派公共服务；我们的社会安全网保证了动荡时期的公共安全；我们的价值观、法治和对多样性的尊重；在处理公共政策中的非意识形态角度，以及政治谈论中的文明和开放性。然而，我们的两院政体治理模式的优势已经开始减损，这应该引起公众的注意。While Canada stands out, the shifting global economy presents opportunities and risks. Our challenge will be to leverage Canadas strengths, tackle its weaknesses and take initiatives t
36、o reposition ourselves for the changing world order.尽管加拿大在危机中脱颖而出，但转变中的全球经济机会和风险并存。我们面临的挑战是利用加拿大的优势，克服其弱点，并采取措施，使自己在不断变化的世界秩序重新定位。On the economic horizon, a key weakness is Canadas poor productivity performance. Consider: Canadas business sector has an average productivity level that is now only 75
37、per cent of that of the U.S. A dollar near parity and aging demographics place an urgency on improving our productivity performance. This “productivity deficit” relative to the U.S. costs Canadians more than $300-billion a year, or $10,000 per capita. And yet governments are not seriously contemplat
38、ing how to close it.从经济的视角看，一个关键的弱点是加拿大的生产率低下。试想一下：加拿大商业的效率只相当于美国的75%，老龄化问题也迫使人们迅速提高生产率表现。这种加拿大相对于美国的“生产率赤字”使加拿大人翻译评论 QQ 群：54592418牛斯狗评论 系列双语读物每年损失3000亿美元，相当于人均损失1万美元。而且，政府尚未找到缩减差距的对策。The broader challenge is about how well and how quickly Canada will adjust to the global drivers of change affecting
39、 all countries: tackling demographics and their wide-ranging impacts from health care to education to pensions; tackling the rise of Asia and its implications for our foreign policy; tackling climate change in all its immense ramifications. But a risk to early and effective action is a political env
40、ironment in Canada that has shifted to a short-term focus, leaving few forums to discuss and achieve consensus on the broad structural trends that are reshaping our world.更广泛的挑战是，加拿大如何更好、更快地进行调整，以便应对所有国家将面临的全球挑战：应对人口问题，及其对医疗保健、教育和养老金制度的全面冲击；应对亚洲的崛起及其对我国外交政策的影响；应对气候变化及其巨大后果。但是，提早和有效行动的风险是，加拿大的政治环境正在向
41、短期倾斜，鲜少有人讨论正在改变世界的结构性趋势问题，并为此达成共识。While the world economy is emerging from the great global recession, the global environment is volatile, and global drivers of change are propelling us toward new global alignments. In the midst of this changing world order lies the opportunity for Canada to stake o
42、ut new markets in emerging-economy giants like China, India and Brazil, to refocus our market presence in the United States toward rapidly growing regions and sectors, and to make Canada more innovative in what we produce and more productive in how we produce it. It is an opportunity we cannot afford to squander.虽然世界经济正在从全球经济大衰退中恢复，但全球环境仍然动荡，全球变革的推动力迫使我们进行新的全球定位。着变化的世界秩序之中，加拿大可以在中国、印度、巴西等新兴经济体中找到新的市场机会，重新在美国快速增长的地区和行业中找到位置，使加拿大的产品翻译评论 QQ 群：54592418牛斯狗评论 系列双语读物更富有创新性，使生产方式更有效率。这将是我们不能错过的机遇。
