1、第八章 人力资源规划,CHP8 Human Resource Planning,案例,北京桑科制造公司的营销经理赵旺在每周经理例会上说：“我有个好消息，我们可以与麦多德公司签订一大笔合同。我们所要做的就是在一年而不是两年内完成该计划。我告诉过他们我们能够做到。”,然而人力资源副经理王林的话却让每个人都必须面对现实，她说：在我看来，我们现有的工人并不具备按麦多德公司的标准生产出优质产品所需要的专业知识。在原来两年的计划进度表中，我们曾计划对现有工人逐步进行培训，但是按现在这个新的时间表我们将不得不到劳动力市场上招募那些具有该方面工作经验的工人。或许我们有必要进一步分析一下这个方案，看看是否确实需
2、要这么做。如果我们要在一年内而不是两年中完成这一计划，人力资源成本将大幅度上升。不错，赵经理，我们能够做到这一点，但是由于有些约束条件，这个计划的效益会好吗？,假设： 你分别是营销经理、人力资源经理、公司总经理，面对这种情况，你的态度是什么？,策之而知得失之计，作之而知动静之理，形之而知生死之地，角之而知有余不足之处。 孙子兵法虚实,人力资源规划（Human Resource Planning）的含义,在企业发展和经营规划的指导下进行人员的供需平衡，以满足企业在不同发展时期对人员的需求，为企业的发展提供符合质量和数量要求的人力资源保证。Employment or personnel plann
3、ing is the process of deciding what positions the firm will have to fill, and how to fill them.,概念理解(1),HRP要在企业发展战略和经营规划的基础上来进行。Strategic Analysis What human resources are needed and what are available?Strategic FormulationWhat is required and necessary in support of human resources?Strategic Implem
4、entationHow will the human resources be allocated?,Clarify performance expectations and future management methods: values, guiding principles business mission objectives and priorities resource allocations,Identify people-relatedbusiness issues,Define HR strategies,objectives, and action plans,Imple
5、ment HRprocesses, policies and practices,Implement processes toachieve desired results: business goals company strengths/weaknesses external opportunities/threats source of competitive advantage,Establish the context: business goals company strengths/weaknesses external opportunities/threats source
6、of competitive advantage,Strategic Analysis,StrategyFormulation,Strategy Implementation,Linking the Processes of HRP and Strategic Planning,Ensuring the Fit between HR and Strategy,External Fit (or External Alignment)Focuses on the connection between the business objectives and the major initiatives
7、 in HR.Internal Fit (or Internal Alignment)Aligning HR practices with one another to establish a configuration that is mutually reinforcing.,Reminder: Organization Strategy Model,概念理解(2),HRP包括对企业特定时期内的人员供给和需求进行预测、根据预测的结果采取相应的措施进行供需平衡。HRP对企业人力资源供给和需求的预测要从数量和质量这两个方面来进行。,Results of Inadequate HR Planni
8、ng,Vacant positions create costly inefficienciesOvertime hours at premium costSimultaneous layoffs and hiringMass layoffs requiring:Severance payExtended notice periodsineffective training, development, career planningTurnover of high performersProblems with employment equity goalsInability to meet
9、operational and strategic plans,Purpose of HRP,HRPs purpose is the effective deployment of human resources through:Anticipating organizational labor supply and demand.Providing expanded employment opportunities Guiding the development and training the workforce.,人力资源规划的内容,Comprehensiveness of planni
10、ng“Plan-based HRP” is part of organizations business planningHRP for special projects-planned or unplanned needs,Assignment plan,HRP的意义和作用,有助于企业发展战略的制定有助于企业保持人员状况的稳定有助于企业降低人工成本的开支对HRM的其他职能具有指导意义,Relationships,人力资源规划的程序,人力资源规划的程序,implement the balanceable plan,HRP and Environmental Scanning,Environme
11、ntal ScanningThe systematic monitoring of the major external forces influencing the organization.Economic factors: general and regional conditionsCompetitive trends: new processes, services, and innovationsTechnological changes: robotics and office automation Political and legislative issues: laws a
12、nd administrative rulings Social concerns: child care and educational priorities Demographic trends: age, composition,and literacy,Scanning the Internal Environment,Cultural AuditsAudits of the culture and quality of work life in an organization.How do employees spend their time? How do they interac
13、t with each other? Are employees empowered?What is the predominant leadership style of managers?How do employees advance within the organization?BenchmarkingThe process of comparing the organizations processes and practices with those of other companies.,FORECASTING DEMAND,Considerations Product/ser
14、vice demand Technology Financial resources Absenteeism/turnover Organizational growth Management philosophy,Techniques Trend analysis Managerial estimates Delphi technique,Techniques Staffing tables Markov analysis Skills inventories Management inventories Replacement charts Succession Planning,Exte
15、rnal Considerations Demographic changes Education of the workforce Labor Mobility Government policies Unemployment rate,FORECASTING SUPPLY,BALANCING SUPPLY AND DEMAND,(Shortage) Recruitment Full-time Part-time Recalls,(Surplus) Reductions Layoffs Terminations Demotions Retirements,人力资源需求的预测Forecasti
16、ng Personnel Needs,人力资源需求的分析Strategy and plansProduct and service demandProjected turnoverQuality and skills of your employeesStrategic decisions to upgrade the quality of products or services or enter into new marketsTechnological and other changes resulting in increased productivity.The financial
17、resource available to your departmentWorkload of a positionEfficiency changing,人力资源需求预测的方法主观判断法 Managerial Estimate Management forecasts are the opinions (judgments) of supervisors, department managers, experts, or others knowledgeable about the organizations future employment needs. 德尔菲法Delphi tech
18、nique The Delphi technique is a method for obtaining forecasts from a panel of independent experts over two or more rounds.,差距,德尔菲法的特征匿名性多次有控制的反馈综合性德尔菲法的步骤确定预测题目，选定专家小组；设计调查表，准备有关材料； 征询专家初次判断意见；综合整理收回的各位专家初次判断意见，作出定量化的归纳，加以必要说明。并反馈给各位专家，请他们再次思考，提出判断意见；经过反复征询意见后，做出预测值。,德尔菲法的优点： （1） 各专家能够在不受干扰的情况下，独立、
19、充分地表明自己的意见； （2） 预测值是根据各位专家的意见综合而成的，能够发挥集体的智慧； （3） 应用面比较广，费用比较节省。德尔菲法的缺点： 在综合预测值时，仅仅是根据各专家的主观判断，缺乏客观标准，而且显得强求一致。,趋势预测法Trend analysis The study of a firms past employment needs over a period of years to predict future needs.回归分析Regression analysis比率预测法Ratio analysisA forecasting technique for determin
20、ing future staff needs by using ratios between a causal factor and the number of employees needed.Assumes that the relationship between the causal factor and staffing needs is constant,趋势预测法例题 某公司过去8年人员的数据如下，请预测今后第二年和第四年人力资源的需求是多少,趋势线可以表示为,a b的确定根据最小平方法,这样就可以预测出今后第二年和第四年的人力资源需求为,Ratio Analysis比率分析,#
21、 patients 病人 = 100# nurses 护士 = 25patient 病人/nurse 护士 ratio比率 = 4/1,If there are 315 patients,how many nurses are needed?如果有315个病人，需要多少护士？,人力资源供给的预测Forecasting Personnel supply,Forecasting the Supply of Outside CandidatesFactors impacting the supply of outside candidatesGeneral economic conditionsLa
22、bor MarketsExpected unemployment rateattraction of enterpriseAttitude toward job,Forecasting the Supply of inside Candidates现有人力资源的分析 人力资源自身的自然变化（退休、生育），主要是对年龄、性别、身体状况等等进行分析。人员流动的分析（重要前提假定：人员的质量不发生变化） 人员由企业流出人员在企业内部流动,人员的质量分析（假定： 人员没有发生流动） 显性原因：如工资的增加技能的培训隐形原因加班加点工作分享、缩短工作时间,人力资源供给预测的方法,Skill Invent
23、oriesReplacement ChartsMarkov Analysis,Internal supply Forecasting Tools,Skill InventoriesFiles of personnel education, experience, interests, skills, etc., that allow managers to quickly match job openings with employee backgrounds.,Personnel replacement chartsCompany records showing present perfor
24、mance and promotability of inside candidates for the most important positions.,Figure 4.6,人力资源水池模型,12,3,4,2+3,1,(23),36,9,60,27,90,36,职位层次,A,B,将提升到上一层次,外部,招聘,将提升到本层次,退休辞职,（提升受阻）,A现有人员B可提升人员,调入6人,现有30人,调出和离职10人,未来供给28人,调入6人,现有50人,调出和离职12人,未来供给40人,晋升5人,降职3人,晋升8人,降职3人,降职4人,内部供给总量115人,马尔科夫模型是用来预测等时间间隔点上
25、（一般为1年）各类人员分布状况的一种动态预测技术。Markov analysis shows the percentage (and actual number) of employees who remain in each job from one year to the next, as well as the proportions of those who are promoted, transferred, or exit the organization.,某类人员的转移率（p）=,本类人员原有数量,转移出本类人员数量,例题1：已知三类人员的转移矩阵和现在三类人员分布状况，如果每
26、年向第一类补充80人，求未来人力资源供给分布状况。,已知人员转移率p，t0时人员分布情况，每年向A类补充人数80人 根据马尔可夫计算公式 可知，某类人员在t时刻的供给量N该类人员总数留存率补充人数. 其中，补充人数=下类人员总数晋升率该类招聘人数上类人员总数降职率,列表预测20072010年三类人员供给情况,例题2：假设某企业有四类职位，从高到低依次是A,B,C,D,各类人员的分布情况如下表，请预测一下未来人员的分布。,解：,Balancing demand and supply of HR人力资源供需的平衡,Dealing with an oversupply of personnel人员供
27、给过剩处理,Freeze hiring 冻结雇佣Restrict overtime 限制超时Retrain/redeploy 重新培训/调动Switch to part-time employees 转成兼职员工Use unpaid vacations 采用无薪休假,Use a shorter workweek 采用缩短的工作周Use pay reductions 采用减少工资Use sabbaticals 采用周期性休息Encourage early retirements 鼓励提前退休,Hire additional workers 雇佣另外的工人Improve productivity
28、through training 通过培训提高生产力Use overtime 采用超时Add additional shifts 增加另外的班次,Reassign jobs 重新分配工作Use temporary workers 使用短期工人Improve retention 改善留置率,Dealing with an Undersupply of Personnel人员供给不足处理,Human Resource Planning ProcessExternal EnvironmentInternal Environment,Strategic Planning,Human Resource
29、Planning,Forecasting Human Resource Requirements,Comparing Requirements and Availability,Forecasting Human Resource Availability,Surplus of Workers,Demand = Supply,No Action,Restricted Hiring, Reduced Hours, Early Retirement, Layoff, Downsizing,Shortage of Workers,Recruitment,Selection,Human Resourc
30、es Planning Model,Employment Forecasting,Supply Analysis,Balance Supply and Demand,Leads to,Resultingin,CONSIDERATIONS,INTERNAL,RECRUITMENT,Full-Time Part-Time Recalls,REDUCTIONS,Terminations Layoffs Demotions Retirement,Staffing Tables Markov Analysis Skills Inventories Management Inventories Repla
31、cement Charts Succession Planning,Product/Service Economics Technology Financial Resources Absenteeism/ Turnover Growth Management Philosophy,TECHNIQUES,Trend Analysis Managerial Estimate Delphi Technique,EXTERNAL,Demographic Changes Education of Workforce Labor Mobility Governmental Policies Unemployment Rate,
