1、 外文翻译 Fundamental Analysis for Evaluating Bank Performance Material Source: Bank Accounting Oct/Nov2008, Vol. 21 Issue 6, p17-24, 8p, 5 Charts Author: Cal Christian, Jacquelyn Sue Moffitt and Lynn A. Suberly What variables provide the greatest insight into future earnings? Many analysts and investor
2、s focus on a single number net income (or earnings) to evaluate performance. When investors attempt to forecast the market value of a firm, they frequently rely on earnings. Many institutional investors, analysts and regulators believe earnings are not as relevant as they once were. Due to nonrecurr
3、ing events, disparities in measuring risk and managements ability to disguise fundamental earnings problems, other measures beyond net income can assist in predicting future firm earnings. Importance of Earnings in Financial Reporting The following statement from the Financial Accounting Standard Bo
4、ards (FASB) conceptual framework demonstrates the role of earnings in financial reporting: The primary focus of financial reporting is information about an enterprises performance provided by measures of earnings and its components. Investors, creditors, and others who are concerned with assessing t
5、he prospects for enterprise net cash inflows are especially interested in that information. Their interest in an enterprises future cash flows leads primarily to an interest in information about its earnings. For financial institutions, financial reporting that relies heavily on net earnings may not
6、 give a full picture of performance. The examination of financial statement variables (often referred to as fundamental analysis) may reduce uncertainties for investors. Purpose of Financial Statements FASBs conceptual framework conveys the purpose of financial statements in the following way: Finan
7、cial reporting should provide information that is useful to present and potential investors and creditors and other financial statement users in making rational investment, credit, and similar decisions. While market price may serve as a benchmark to measure the value relevance of certain accounting
8、 measures, fundamental analysis uses intrinsic values discovered from financial statements as benchmarks against which security prices are measured, thereby identifying overpriced and underpriced stocks. One such value is the net charge-off to loans which provides the percentage of total loans being
9、 written off in any one year. Then any changes in this measure can assist in explaining why the firms returns were different then expected. These variables are determined using the same generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) rules that determine earnings. The breadth of variables available
10、plus the finely defined focus of each variable makes it possible to overcome any perceived or real weaknesses in the information value of earnings. In addition, fundamental analysis can assist in identifying any trends in the banks performance. We examine key factors of a banks operating performance
11、 to identify variables that assist in predicting market returns and one-year-ahead earnings. Our findings suggest that in explaining current-year returns, measures of capital adequacy may provide the greatest insight, while measures of asset quality and earnings provide some informational content. M
12、easures of size and growth and loan exposure do not appear to provide any information content regarding returns. In attempting to explain future earnings, however, the same variables that signal size, growth and loan exposure, along with earnings measures, provide the greatest insight into future ea
13、rnings. Unlike current returns, capital adequacy and asset-quality measurements do not appear to provide any significant information content. We examine the incremental value relevance of 22 fundamental variables in relation to earnings. We selected these after reviewing the Sheshunoff Bank and S sp
14、ecifically, the banks ability to make and collect loans. Loans are the major asset in most banks portfolios, generating the most income for the bank and therefore generating the most risk. Loans are also considered to be highly illiquid. Asset quality is examined by looking at the following fundamen
15、tals: Provision for loan and lease losses. The amount charged as expense each period, allocating a portion of income to a reserve to offset future loan defaults. While this is a noncash expense, the provision represents managements perception of the quality of the current loan portfolio. Net charge-
16、offs to loans. Gross loan and lease financing receivables determined uncollectible and written off as a percentage of average total loans and lease financing receivables. This is an indicator of the quality of loans (default rate). Loss allowance to loans. The allowance for loan and lease losses as
17、a percentage of total loan and lease financing receivables, excluding unearned income. This ratio represents managements perception of the quality of the current and noncurrent loan portfolios. Yield curve. The yield curve is used to capture the overall movement of interest rates. The overall patter
18、n of the yield curve can assist in determining economic growth and stability. The yield curve is computed as the difference between the 30-year T-bond rate and the three month T-bill rate. Earnings. Earnings are an indicator of how well a bank is managing its interest spread, generating fee income,
19、controlling expenses and maintaining its asset quality. While managements main objective should be to maximize shareholder wealth, profit maximization requires the bank to either increase its risk or lower its operating costs. How well the bank manages these operational risks, capital risks and cred
20、it risks will affect its earnings. Earnings are measured through the following: Net income. Net-interest income plus total noninterest income plus realized gains (losses) on securities and extraordinary items, less total noninterest expense, loan-loss provisions and income taxes. Net operating incom
21、e. Net income excluding discretionary transactions such as gains (losses) on the sale of investment securities and extraordinary items. Income taxes subtracted from operating income have been adjusted to exclude the portion applicable to securities gains (losses). Net-interest income. Total interest
22、 income minus total interest expense. It represents the difference between interest and dividends earned on interest-bearing assets and interest paid to depositors and other creditors. Yield on earning assets. Total interest income (annualized) as a percentage of average earning assets. Net-interest
23、 margin. Total interest income less total interest expense (annualized) as a percentage of average earning assets. Net operating income to assets. Net operating income (annualized) as a percentage of average assets. Return on assets. Measures the banks success in using its assets to earn income for
24、its shareholders. It is calculated as net income after taxes and extraordinary items (annualized) as a percentage of average total assets. Return on equity. Measures how much income is earned with the shareholders investment. It is calculated as annualized net income divided by average equity on a c
25、onsolidated basis. Efficiency ratio. Measures how well management is managing the operating overhead (noninterest expense) of the bank. It is calculated as noninterest expense divided by the sum of net-interest income and noninterest income. 基于基本面对银行业绩评价 资料来源： Bank Accounting Oct/Nov2008, Vol. 21 Is
26、sue 6, p17-24, 8p, 5 Charts 作者： Cal Christian, Jacquelyn Sue Moffitt and Lynn A. Suberly 什么变量对未来的盈利性提供最好的洞察力？ 许多分析家和投资者非常关注对净利润 (或收益 )该数值的评价表现。当投资者尝试预测一个公司的市场价值，他们经常依靠收益来分析。许多机构投资者和分析家以及监管机构认为收益并不是像曾经它们被认 为地那样存在相关性。由于一次性事件存在，风险计量的差异性，管理者的能力不同所产生的收益问题，超越净利润的其他的措施能在预测上给予协助未来的公司收益。 财务报告中收入的重要性 以下声明从财务会
27、计准则委员会 (FASB)概念框架的以收入为对象在财务报告 :财务会计报告主要关注的信息在于一个企业的收益表现引起收入增加的相关措施以及它的组成部分。许多机构投资者、债权人，以及特别关注对通过企业的净现金流而进行未来分析的另一部分人。他们主要关注在一个企业的未来现金流量为主的收入的改变。 金融机构、财务报告，很大程度上依赖于 净收益，但它可能不会完整的反映出的全部的绩效。而在财务变量检测 (被称为基本面分析 )可能减少投资者不确定度。 财务报表的目的 根据财务会计标准委员会的框架概念，并以之为目的传达的财务报表有以下方式：财务报告应当提供有用的知识呈现和潜在的投资者和债权人和其他 财务报表 在
28、做的用户合理的投资、信贷和类似的决定来作为依据。 而市场价格可能作为一个基准来估量某些关联账户而采取的措施，根据财务报表来对其内在价值进行基本面分析，用测量出的安全价格来鉴定高估或低估股票的价值。一个这样的值是它所提供的贷款被冲销在任何一年中， 净坏账在贷款总量中所占的比例。然后根据这种方法测量出的数据所产生任何改变都可以帮助解释为什么公司的回报比预期的不同。这些变量被决定使用相同的一般公认会计原则编制规则来决定收入的变化。许多变量能够被获取，而且对这些每个焦点变量的精细定义的收入使人们有可能克服任何可察觉或者真正的信息价值的弱点。此外，基本面分析能在鉴定上给予协助表现银行的业绩变化的任何趋势
29、。 市场回报率和未来的收益 我们检测银行的经营绩效关键因素是各变量对其影响的研究，这样可以协助预测市场回报率和第二年的收益情况。我们的研究结果表明，在对解释当 年的回报率、资本充足率可以提供更深层次的洞察力，并且对资产质量和收入的提高提供一些信息内容的措施。措施的规模以及成长性和贷款的额度似乎无法提供任何信息内容有关的回报。在尝试解释未来的盈利，然而，同样的变量信号规模、成长性，未收回放款额的不同，并随着收益措施改变，提供更深层次对未来收入的洞察力。当前的回报率，资本充足率以及资产的质量的测量似乎无法提供任何重要的信息内容。 我们在研究引起收益变化的过程中引入 22 个与之相关的变量。我们通过
30、了解 雪逊诺夫 （ Sheshunoff）银行和每个季度的存贷（ S&L）报告和联邦 存款保险公司 (FDIC)的季度报告并选取这些变量。除了损益表和资产负债表的事项外，联邦储蓄保险公司的季度报告要求每一机构提交多项绩效评价标准。Sheshunoff银行和 S&L的季度检查许多不同的基本原理和分类为基本影响下列之一：规模和成长性、未收回放款额、资本充足率、资产质量、收益或流动性。 在了解了 Sheshunoff 银行和联邦储蓄保险公司的季度报告时，我们选择 22个基本变量 (在模型 2 我们引入 23 项，添加了一类净营业收入 )。下面的分析描述经济的直觉背后的每个变量，以及变量的分类（定义基
31、本原理变量及总结 )。值得注意的是 Sheshunoff 银行的季刊，增长率的内容可以非常丰富。高增长率通常被认为是一个积极的信号，它通常反映了未来收益和未来的资产的质量问题。在同一个市场中其他银行与拥有非常高增长率银行相比，贷款之前经常损失。另一方面，低增长率可能导致失去市场份额。这些特征强调增长率结合其他经济基本面的重要性样。当任何一个基本变量被单独审查时，这可能会导致错误的结论。两个特定的基本面检验需要获得规模和成长性的机构包括 (1)总资产 ，过去常常用来测量规模的或本身拥有的机构 (2) 财富百分比变动，过去常常用来测量成长性的机构。 未收回的放款额。一个银行的未收回放款额也可以有一
32、个双重意义。而银行信贷风险 (作为一个银行获得收入的主要方法 )可以是一个健康的指针，违约风险的提高可能会导致一种潜在的银行倒闭。银行每次取得或进行贷款，它假设风险是因为借款人拖欠贷款。这种信用风险是由许多不一样的元素组成，银行的未收回放款额提供一个良好风险指标来应对不确定经济环境。未收回放款额被测量使用下面二变量： 1、 净贷款和租赁提供了总的一个视图未收回放款额，贷款和 融资租赁应收款项中非劳动收入，贷款损失。 2、 贷款损失，建立储备银行贷款和租赁损失，应吸收相关足够的信用损失组合贷款。 资本的充足率。大量可用资金的提供是该银行的一个指标，它体现了银行的增长能力和弥补可能发生损失的能力。
33、银行的资本情况已成为一个主要关注为监管机构在防止银行倒闭指标。保护债权人的利益持续不断地推动联邦这项指导方针。银行资本不足时很难被定义，但这一活动变成影响一旦银行的资本金的地位。提高资本、降低风险、缓冲收益波动性、限制成长机会，降低银行倒闭的可能性。影响银行的能力并不提高额外的资金生长的因素只有 一个，那就是拥有足够的资本。联邦监管机构要求银行保持一定的水平的资本。用于测量变量的资本充足率遵循： 一级（核心）资本。银行的核心资本，被联邦存款保险公司定义作为普通股本加不累积的永久优先股加上少数股东权益合并分支机构和其他资格善意少无形资产。 权益资本。股份资本的比例总资产。 核心资本 (利用 )的
34、比值。一级资本 (核心 )的资金与总资产的比例。最低限度比率由联邦监管机构所允许的 3%。 一级基于风险的资本的比例。一级的比例 (核心 )资本风险加权资产。通过监控风险加权资产 , 如果银行存在财务 危机时，银行和联邦立法机构能够及时采取纠正措施。所被联邦立法机构允许的最低比率是 4%。 基于风险的资本总额比例。基于风险的资本总额的比例对风险加权资产由联邦适当的调节 ,以至于能及时采取纠正措施。所被联邦立法机构允许的最低比率是 8%。 资产质量方面。银行的资产分为四大类 :由于现金和应收账款、投资证券、贷款和其他资产。资产质量常常与它贷款相关；明确地说，银行的能力在于吸收存款发放贷款。贷款是
35、大多数银行的投资组合中财富的主要来源，它产生最多的收益，因此产生了最大危险。贷款也被认为是流通性很低。资产质量 审查基于下面的原理： 贷款和租赁的损失的防备。按每一个周期收取费用，提取一份固定的金额储备来抵消未来贷款有可能发生的损失。尽管本次非现金费用，提供代表管理的感知目前的组合贷款质量。 贷款的净坏账。总贷款、融资租赁应收款项，已确定一笔勾销为一定比例的平均总贷款和融资租赁应收项目。这是一个贷款质量指标 (默认失业率 )。 损失补贴贷款。允许的贷款和租赁损失的贷款总量中所占的比例和融资租赁应收款项，不含不劳而获的收入。这一比例代表管理的感知的现状及质量非流动的贷款组合。 收益率曲线。 收益
36、率曲线过去常 常被用来捕获利率的整体运动 。整体图案的收益率曲线可以协助决定经济增长和稳定。收益率曲线被计算由于差异在之间30 年的长期国债率，三个月国库券率之间的区别。 收益。收益如何的一个良好的指标在于一个银行在管理它的利息差额，产生收费收入，控制费用，维持它的资产质量。它经营的主要目的是实现股东财富最大化或利润最大化这就意味着银行会增加风险或降低操作成本。银行如何管理这些经营风险，资本风险和信用风险会影响它的收入。收入是采用下列事项 : 净收入。净利息收入加上非利息收入实现盈利 (亏损 )的安全，减去非利息收入所产 生的费用，贷款损失准备金以及所得税。 净营业收入。净营业收入不包括在销售
37、中产生的费用损失、债券投资和非经常的项目。是已经被调整过所得税减去营业收入，以排除适用于证券收益部分损失。 净利息收入。总利息收入与总利息费用的差额。它代表了赚取利息和红利有息资产和利息支付给存款人和其他债权人的差异。 资产收益率。总利息收入 (年 )中平均有收益的资产中所占的比重。 净利差率。 净利差率等于银行的利息收入减去利息支出的差，再除以生息资产（平均值）。 资产的营业净利率。 企业的净利润和营业收入的比值 。 资产回报率率。它是银行的成功地使用资产并获得收入来回报给它的股东的一项指标。它的计算公式为 净利润与平均资产总额地百分比 。 股本回报率。是 衡量相对于股东权益的投资回报之指标 。它的计算公式为年度净收入除以总平均权益比重。 效益比率。用来衡量在银行管理过程中是管理操作开销 (非利息费用 )。它的计算公式为非利息费用的总和除以净利息收入和非利息收入之和。
