1、 外文翻译 原文 Pathways to a low-carbon economy for the UK with the macro-econometric E3MG model Material Source: Energy Policy 38 (2010) 30673077 Author: A.S. Dagoumas , T.S. Barker Before deriving any particular conclusion from the scenarios presented in this paper, it is important to consider the model
2、ing approach and the way the scenarios have been implemented with E3MG. E3MG being a macroeconometric model of the global economy has the advantage of examining policies at global and at national level, which is more important in cases of international efforts. The 40%, 60% and 80% reduction targets
3、 are not realistic options if implemented only by UK because they would not lead to a signicant reduction in climate change and because no single country would easily take a decision moving towards suchpolicies on its own. For these reasons we assume that the emissions reduction targets for the UK a
4、re implemented as part of international reduction targets. Based on the facts that the Obama USA Administration is committed to nding solution to climate change issue and the major developing countries are reluctant to adopt such policies in the medium term, a G8 reduction target of 40%, 60% and 80%
5、 by 2050 compared to 1990 levels seems to be a more realistic framework. The E3MG model adopts a hybrid approach. The aggregate and disaggregate energy demand is estimated using econometric techniques, allowing for fuel switching for the 12 different fuel types and for the 19 fuel users, while the p
6、ower sector is simulated using a probabilistic approach which considers the economic, technical, environmental characteristics of the power units but considers also the history. The electric system expansion is modeled by using parameters for the different technologies based on historical data on le
7、arning rates, which allows new technologies to gain a share in the market even when their cost is higher than conventional technologies. Moreover the dispatch of the different technologies to meet the electric demand, although using the cost optimization approach comparing the penetration of the dif
8、ferent technologies, takes historical data as its starting point. Both the energy demand system and the energy technology options are implemented so as to model market imperfections which exist in all markets and are not usually considered in the classical cost optimization techniques. These market
9、imperfections, resulting either from socio-political factors or from the presence of oligopolies that speculate on the electricity price, cause differentiation in the electricity mix across countries, and lead in many cases to signicantly different proles from those projected from models assuming pe
10、rfect market conditions. The scenarios are implemented in this framework, allowing the cumulative investment at global level for alternative technologies so their faster penetration provides solutions with a more diverse electric mix. It is also important to mention that the emission reduction scena
11、rios are modeled not by imposing a reduction target and estimating the marginal abatement cost for meeting this target, but by applying different policies at different strengths and different timing, which is consistent with the theoretical background of the spacetime economics adopted in the E3MG m
12、odel. The strength and timing of a policy can trigger (or not) the penetration of a new technology. For example, large investments in electric cars in the medium term can lead to their fast penetration, while large investments in hydrogen cars take longer to have effect and so cannot have similar re
13、sults. The different scenarios have been implemented by applying in different strengths and timing the policies of carbon pricing, direct investment and revenue recycling in the form of investments in the power sector, investments in the transport and other consumption sectors. The aim was all of th
14、em to have a positive effect, by reducing emissions whilst maintaining economic growth. This proves to be the most important conclusion of this paper, that there exist several portfolios of policies that can have large emissions reductions and also help the economy to grow. This nding is in contrast
15、 with those from many models predicting that energy investments will have an important negative effect on the economic growth, deriving from the assumptions in the neoclassical approach of full employment (so that there are no extra resources available to produce extra output) and of optimization of
16、 the baseline economy by a central planner (so that any shift away from the optimal solution will reduce GDP). But it is consistent with recent political decisions at EU, USA and Japan to invest on green technologies and infrastructure so as to boost their economies out of the global recession. The
17、UK energy system under decarbonisation pathways The set of Carbon Ambition scenarios (40%, 60% and 80% CO2 reductions from 1990 levels by 2050) offer insights on decarbonisation pathways and energyeconomyenvironment trade offs. The reference scenario shows that a small reduction in energy demand and
18、 emissions is expected in the medium term (up to 2020) due to the number of energy efciency policies already implemented (Barker et al. 2007). This reduction would be higher if the nancial crisis at the end of year 2008 was considered, as a previous version of the model has been used. In the long ru
19、n the model estimates that economic growth will lead to an increase of energy demand and emissions by 7% by 2050 compared to 1990 levels. The approach selected to implement the scenarios is consistent with the political will of major developed countries (USA and EU) to incentivise investments in gre
20、en technologies so as to boost their economies. In the reference scenario such as investment plans are not considered and this leads to an electric mix with 50% gas and coal and 20% nuclear plants units by 2050. Transport sector is not expected to shift to electric vehicles and it is the dominant se
21、ctor concerning emissions followed by the power and the building sectors. Under the decarbonisation pathways, the power and the transport sector show the highest decrease in emissions and so constitute the most critical sectors for meeting deep reduction targets. The decarbonisation of the power sec
22、tor happens in two directions: in the replacement of conventional units with nuclear or CCS plants and in the further penetration of renewables. The extent and the timing of the incentives for these technologies are critical. Renewables penetrate at levels lower than 50%, based on the assumptions on
23、 technical restrictions. Recent research work under the IEA on the penetration rates of renewables suggests levels up to 40% fo r the UK (Holttinen et al. 2006) due to stability and power quality issues. But the electrication of the transport sector allows an increase of the capacity factor of stoch
24、astic renewables such as wind, if accompanied by the proper tariff policies. So their penetration level in the electricity production has been allowed up to 50%, generated mainly from wind farms and secondly from biomass, marine and solar plants. In all scenarios the model produces solutions with hi
25、gher energy diversity than expected from a cost-optimization solution. In that way the models probabilistic approach resolves the problem of energy security. There is only one case where one technology (nuclear) penetrates more than 50% by 2050 in the electric mix, thus violating a possible indicato
26、r of resilience. The decarbonisation of the electric and transport sectors leads to signicant emission reductions and also maintains economic growth. In case where more incentives are provided on the consumption side (building and industry) for energy efciency projects, the energy demand reduction h
27、elps towards emission reduction but the effect on the growth of the economy is smaller. The overall gains of the economy are in the range 55130bn (2000 prices) in year 2050 depending on the scenario. There is no simple trade-off in emission reduction and economic growth: all the scenarios show highe
28、r GDP compared to the reference case (REF); the 40% reduction scenario (CFH) leads to higher GDP compared to the other scenarios, but the 80% reduction (CAM) leads to higher GDP compared to the 60% reduction (CLC) scenario. These results are attributed to the strength and timing of the policies impl
29、emented. CFH has a lower reduction target but has also, through regulation, a higher shift of transport into electric vehicles and a higher penetration of wind. The ambitious scenario, CAM, has more positive effect on GDP compared to CLC, because the more stringent target can only be achieved throug
30、h stronger regulation, encouraging faster adoption of new carbon-reducing technologies and higher investment. The CAM scenario implies a global technological revolution in favour of low-carbon products and processes, achieving lower costs through economies of specialization and scale. Decarbonising
31、the global energy system is a timing and well as a political problem with the different portfolios of policies becoming preferable depending on the nal and intermediate targets. Achieving the stringent 80% target for the UK by 2050 appears feasible, while maintaining economic growth, but implies ado
32、ption of a portfolio of policies including strong regulation and high carbon prices. 译文 英国低碳经济之路的宏观经济的 E3MG 模型 资料来源 : Energy Policy 38 (2010) 3067 3077 作者： A.S. Dagoumas , T.S. Barker 在从本文提出的结论中派生任何特殊结论之前，考虑建模方法和实施 E3MG所面临的情景所需要的方法是重要的。 E3MG 作为全球经济的宏观经济计量模型，这个模型研究在世界和国家一级的政策有其优点，这是国际案例中一个案例。因为英国不会导致
33、对气候变化的 signicant 减少，并且国家不会轻易地做出独自地朝这些政策移动的决定，所以，如果仅由英国实施 40%， 60%和 80%减少目标是不现实的选择。因此我们假设英国的排放缩小目标作为国际减排目标的一部分被实施。基于奥巴马的美国管理承诺寻找解决气候变化问题的方法，并且主要发展中国家勉强在中期采取这样政策的事实， G8计划 2050年将在 1990年的基础上减少目标的 40%， 60%和 80%似乎是一个更加现实的框架。 E3MG 模型采取一种杂种的方法。聚集体和分开能源需求估计使用经济计量学的技术，准许 12 个不同的燃料类型和 19 名燃料用户的燃料交换，而能源部门是通过考虑到
34、能源单位的经济、技术、环境特征也同样考虑到历史因素的一种概率方法。电力系统扩展是通过使用基于历史数据的不同技术参量而被塑造的，允许新技术获取市场中的份额，既使当他们的费用高于常规技术。现代科技需要不同的技术满足，虽然与传统科技相比，它的成本不能达到最优，可采用历史数据作为它的起点。能源需求系统和能源技术选择被实施在完善挫折所有市场并 通常不被古典费用优化技术考虑的市场缺陷。这些由于社会和政治的因素和由于在电价格投机垄断集团的出现引起的销售缺点，导致跨国间的电力混合分化，并且使在许多情况下，计划在完善的市场条件模型的设想的显著不同的剖面图处于领先。 在这个框架被实施的设想，允许在可供选择技术的全
35、球性水平提供渐增投资，因此他们更加快速深入地提供解决更加多样的电力混合的方法。通过运用不同的政策的减排设想建模，不是通过强加减少目标和为实现这个目标而刻意少算了一些成本，而是在不同的强度和不同时机，与 E3MG 模型中被采取的时空经济理论背景保持一致是 非常重要的。政策的力量和时间可能触发 (或没有 )一种新技术的渗透。例如，在电车的大投资可能在中期导致他们快速的渗透，而在氢汽车的大投资将花费很长时间起作用，且不可能有类似结果。不同的情景通过申请不同的优势而被实施了，并且使其与碳定价政策一致，直接投资或收支以在能源部门、交通部门和其他消费部门的投资形式回收。通过减少排放，保持经济增长，使得他们
36、都有积极的作用。存在可能有大幅缩小排放并且帮助经济增长的政策的几份股份单，这被证实是本文最重要的结论。 这结果是来自那些些从能量投资的许多模型中预测的，将对经济增长有一个 巨大的消极作用，以新古典主义充分就业途径的假定中获得 (没有可利用额外的资源生产导致额外的输出的结果 )和由一位中央计划者对基础线经济的优化对比 (偏离最佳方案的所有转移将减少国民生产总值的结果 )。但是它与最近一次在欧盟、美国和日本对绿色技术和基础设施投资的政治决定是一致的，以便使他们的经济摆脱全球性衰退的大潮中。 在脱碳路之下的英国能源系统套碳目标设想 (2050 年二氧化碳排放将在1990 的水平上减少 40%， 60
37、%和 80%)提供在脱碳路与能源 经济 环境之间的转换。 参考情景表示，由于一些提高能量利用率的政策的实施，能源需求和排放在中期 (直到 2020)小幅减少。 (Barker 等 2007)。如果在 2008 年年底被认为有财政危机，由于使用了就的模型进行计算，这减少幅度将会更大。从长远看模型估计经济增长将导致 2050 年能源需求和排放将比 1990 年增加 7%。实施方案的相关选择与主要发达国家政治意愿是一致的 (美国和欧盟 )刺激绿色技术的投资以便促进他们的经济增长。在参考设想中如果没有考虑投资项目，这将导致在 2050 年发电方式将由 50%气体和煤炭和 20%核工厂单位等组成。运输部
38、门没有 预计转移到使用电动车，它将成为继能源和建造部门之后的主要排放排放部门。在脱碳路之下，能源和运输部门显示为符合深入减少目标的最高且最重要的减少排放的部门。能源部门的脱碳可以发生在二个方向：将常规的单位替换成核电站或 CCS 发电工厂并进行可持续性的进一步突破。这些技术刺激的程度和时间的是非常重要的。基于技术制约的假定，在低于 50%水平的可持续突破。在 IEA 之下的最近在可持续性的渗透率研究工作显示 40%左右水平由英国决定(Holttinen 等 2006)稳定和能源质量问题。但是电力运输部门在结合适当的关税政策的条件下 ，允许随机可更新性利用率类似于风电的增加。因此他们的在电力生产
39、的渗透水平允许高于 50%，主要从风力场获得，其次从生物量，海洋和光合植物获得。这个模型提出了解决针对所有部门的改变高能耗和降低成本的难题。用这种模型的概率性方法几乎解决能量安全的问题。只有一个事例表明到 2050 年 (核能 )技术会在发电组成领域占据到超过 50%的份额。这明显违反了一个潜在的弹性指数。 电力部门和运输部门的脱碳将导致大量的排放减少并且保持经济的增长。如果在消费方面 (建筑和工业 )为能量利用率项目提出更多刺激措施，能源需求减少有助于碳排放的 减少，但是对经济增长的帮助将会很小。 根据预测， 2050年经济的总量将在 550 1300亿英镑 (以 2000年价格为准 )范围
40、内。在排气缩小和经济增长方面将没有简单的交易：所有预测显示国民生产总值比参考事例 (REF)更高 ;预期的 40%的减少 (CFH)导致国民生产总值比其他设想要高，但是 80%的减少 (CAM)将导致国民生产总值比预期的 60%的减少(CLC)要高。这些结果归因于政策实施的强度和时间。 CFH 有一个较低的减少目标，但也有通过法规，将交通运输向电动机车和高技术的风动能使用的转变。因为更加严格的目标只能通过 更强的规章，鼓励更加快速地采用新的减少碳的技术和更加高额的投资，自信地设想 CAM 比 CLC 有对国民生产总值的更加正面的作用。 CAM 设想暗示一次倾向于低碳产品和过程，通过专业化和规模经济达到低成本的全球性技术革命。全球性能源系统的脱碳是一个机遇也是一个尖锐的政治问题，随着不同的投资组合政策变得更合适，这是建立在中长期的目标的基础上。英国在 2050 年之前完成的严密的 80%目标看上去可行，且保持经济增长，但是暗示采用包括强的章程和高碳价格的组合政策。
