1、1Preliminary Research on Necessity and Countermeasure of Reasonably Control Coal Output during the Tw（China university of mining and technology,School of Management,Beijing 100083） Abstract. The document, Suggestions on Making the Twelfth-Five-Year Plan for National Economy and Social Development,in
2、 which clearly mentioned “reasonably control total energy consumption”, was passed in the Fifth Plenum of the 17th Central Coommittee of the CPC. Coal is our main energy, and since 2003,coal output and consumption almost increased 200 million per year. The over speed of coal production leads to lots
3、 of problems like ecological disturbance and more mine disasters.This article is trying to analyze the necessity of reasonably controling coal putout,plus some factors that needs to think about when controling coal output and several suggestions on coal output control during the Twelfth-Five-Year pe
4、riod. Key words: coal output; Twelfth-Five-Year Period; control Coal is the main energy in our country, and the share of it 2in primary energy consumption is 70%.Since 2003, our coal output and consumption almost increased 200 million per year.Following this speed, our total coal consumpton will be
5、over 4 billion ton at the end of Twelfth-Five-Year period.The domestic coal output will reach 3.8 billion ton, which is equal to 50% world coal output.This kind of coal production way is hard to continue.We do need a “ceiling”to control the coal output. 1 Developing Problems Exist in Our Coal Indust
6、ry The industrializatio and urbanization in our country is developing in high speed nowdays.In order to maintain the rapid economy growth, coal output grows fast.Exploiting coal with high strength leads to lots of problems. 1.1 Heavily Energy Consuming Though the coal resources in our country is abu
7、ndant, its rare when comes to per capita.The average mining depth is over 400 meters, thus its harder and costs more to exploit coal mine.Pit extaction is in majority, plus more small coal mines, low recovery ratio and serious resources waste.Even though our coal resources are abundant, it can still
8、 dry up if we continue exploiting 3 or 4 billion ton at this high speed per year. 1.2 Cause Severe Hidden Danger with More Mine Disasters 3Overspped coal output growth and overstrung production are the important reasons for more mine disasters occuring.About one in third productivity comes from smal
9、l coal mine in our country.If the demand for coal grows, it can easily lead to mine disasaters. 1.3 Severe Damage to the Ecological Environment Coal mine over exploiting results in surface subsidence, underground water system destruction, air pollution, debris brick accretion and self-ignition and s
10、o on. Its estimated that it will destroy 5 ton underground water for exploiting 1 ton coal in Shanxi, and one eighth place of this province has been stull. 1.4 Facing International Pressure about Climate Changes The total consumption in our country is almost the same in USA, but coal is the main ene
11、rgy here.Carbon dioxide which coal emits per calorific value is 1.4 times than oil and 1.7 times than natural gas.We have become the biggest emission country.Viewing the future trend,energy consuming in western developed countries reduce gradually,while our country grows rapidly.We will face more an
12、d more pressure from the international climate changing conference if our coal consumption grows rapidly like this. 1.5 Lead to the Over Pressure on Rail Transport 4More than 50% of our rail transport is used for coal transporting.Long load distance, high cost, lots of sections, sometimes rushing tr
13、ansport or overstocking at a harbour, difficulties in cross-regional dispatch and banlance, these are the problems we need to deal with. All in all, its really necessary to put a limitation to coal output and reasonably control overspeed coal output growth. 2 The Necessity of Reasonably Controling C
14、oal Output 2.1 Its the Demand Od Guaranting Our Resources Sustainable Development Our resource industry persisits single and linear pattern of “mass production, mass consumption and mass discard”, while the pattern of coal industry is “rapid extension, powerfui exploration”.This traditonal productin
15、g pattern drives the economy development, bringing about severe problems like resources dry-up at the same time . 5 out of 7 coal companies under the leadership of Shandong province, including Zibo mining group corporation, Winxin mining group corporation, Feicheng mining group corporation are in th
16、e recession;Kailuan and Fengfeng mining areas in Hebei provnce are also drying up gradually;phenomenon of coal burnout 5in Heilongjiang province is more obvious,for many mining cities stops coal mining.Whats more, quite a lot resource-dependent cities like Taiyuan, Datong in Shanxi, Kelamay in Xinji
17、aang, Pingdingshan in Henan, Fuxin in Liaoning, Liupanshui in Guizhou, all have the sign of resources burnout in defferent degrees,some even already in resources bornout situation.If no full preparation put in advance, once coal resources bornout becomes reality,it will make a huge impact on economy
18、 development and social stability. 2.2 The Demand of Making Scientific Capacity Plan Recently, in the process of mining company expanding output, coal mine security job is not totally rooted in the ground, especiallly gas and water trouble in the coal mine is still the big concern of national coal m
19、ine security.The situation of coal mine security production is still tough.As for the resources utilization ratio, ourcoal resources converter rate only keeps 30% to 40% on average, owing to the lack of systematic storage management and other factors.Under this security production and energy resourc
20、es utilization ratio circumstance, some coal mining companies expand blindly in seek of profit, thus the coal productivity constrction remians at high spped.If no guide given to the commpanies about their 6scientific productivity construction, once the excess productivity problem emerges, these exce
21、ss fundamental construction will be discarded, and it can be a great waste to the country. 2.3 The Demand of Guaranting National Energy Security Coal is the “first energy”in our country,not only because it shares more than 70% in primary energy consumption, but also its the main energy for the power
22、 industry.Coal in short supply will cause bigger influence on economy than oil.Recently, our coal demand grows at double digit rates.Calculated in terms of current coal demand, coal will increase to 300 million ton per year even if it grows 10%.Since 2003, our netimport volume increased year by year
23、, and it shows the trend of coal depending more on foreign.In 2009, China became a coal netimport country, coal netimport volume reaching 105 million ton, thats equal to 3.2% of total coal consumption volume in 2009. Once our coal resources dry up, a big scale of coal shortage will show up.It can ma
24、ke a great impact on the international coal maarket and threaten our national energy security. 2.4 The Demand Of Effecttively Dealing With Environment 7Problems The superscript numeral used to refer to a footnote appears in the text either directly after the word to be discussed or in relation to a
25、phrase or a sentence following the punctuation mark (comma, semicolon, or period). Footnotes should appear at the bottom of the normal text area, with a line of about 5cm set immediately above them. 2.5 Program Code According to the MNP and IEA reports, the total carbon dioxide volume emitted in Chi
26、na has exceeded USA, ranking the first in the world.Other information shows in all of what we emit in the air, 85% carbon dioxide, 70% dust, 85% sulfur dioxide and 60% N-H compounds coming from coal buring.Our government officially announced the carbon emission reduction target in which said “we wil
27、l drop 40% to 45% carbon dioxide emission per GDP in 2020 compared with 2005”.This also works as sanctionative index put in the long-term national economy and social development plan.Without coal consuming limitation, the arbitary growth will bring about great challege for our carbon emission reduct
28、ion job.The government carbon emission reduction target will be hard to achieve if coal output over 5 billion ton in 2020. 3 Factors Need to Be Considered of 8Total Coal Output Volume Control In order to control total coal output volume, we need take following factors into consideration. 3.1 Nationa
29、l Economy Growth The natioal economy growth level and energy volume demand have a positive corelation on the whole.The ralationship between energy demand and GDP can be explained by energy coefficient.From 1990 to 2009, our energy consumng volume increased year by year.Our energy elasticity coeffici
30、ent in 2009 was 0.57.Viewing the change of energy elasticity coefficient in these years, we can predict that our energy elasticity coefficient may wave from 0.4 to 0.8 in a period.Assuming the energy utilization doesnt change, the growing economy will create a boom for bigger energy demnand. 3.2 Res
31、ources Endowment According to the relevant data from coal-mining industry association, until the end of 2007, coal resources volume that investigated in our country was 1.18 trllion, in which including more than 320 billion ton of basic reserves, more than 850 billion ton of amount of resources.In b
32、asic reserves, the volume was about 180 billion ton.Other statistical data from Ministry of Land and Resources shows that up to now the 9recoverable coal reserves are 188.6 billion ton, ranking second in the world,only after USA, amounting to 20.5% of world recoverable coal reserves volume. Although
33、 the total volume is aquantitative in objective, the recoverable coal reserve volume can increase with the geological exploration job going on.Fortunately, we discovered several high quality coal-mines in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and others.This further increases our coal volume, creating more space
34、 for coal productin. 3.3 The Feature of Resources Distribution The feature of resources distribtion needs to be considered when controling coal output.Our coal resources mainly distributed in three different parts: Eastern import region, central export region and western self-supply region.Geographi
35、cally, 90% of national coal resources stored in the north of Qin and Dabie mountains.Most of these resources distributed in Shanxi, Shanxi and Inner Mogolia, in which the reserve volume takes 6% of whole north region.On the contrary, only 10% of national coal reserve volume stored in the south of Qi
36、n and Dabie mountains, most of which distributed in Guizhou and Yunnan province.Theres severe imbalance in space distribution.Incovience of transportation restricts coal 10resources distributing all over the country, affecting total coal supply and capability.But with the improvement of our transpor
37、tion conditions, we can greatly raise coal supply and capabality. 3.4 Production Technology Level Technology improvement can lower the cost of coal-mine exploiting, some resources that originally having no promising deposit will be dug out, in this wang resources supply capability is promoted.In rec
38、ent years, the efficiency of people engaged in raw coal production in nation-owned companies improves significantly, just as the data from coal mining industry association shows, the efficiency of all personnel working in our key nation-owned enterprises improves fast in recent decade.The efficiency
39、 of all personnel was 4.599t/p, 2.6 times than that in 1995.But the condition of carrying out mechanical mining is bad in most towns,some even not having mining machines.More than 2 million miners still mine by their hands.This condition leads to low labour capacity of whole nation compared with developed countries. 3.5 Energy Utilization Ratio Owing to some factors like technology level, the energy utilization level keeps low for a long time.The benefit we make from coal per ton is equal to 28.6% of that in USA, 16.8% of
